低温条件下松材线虫在中国的风险分布区预测

【目的】松材线虫是我国一种重要的检疫性外来入侵物种,给我国林业造成巨大的经济损失。近年来在松材线虫疫区的调查发现,一些年平均温度8℃左右的高海拔地区也开始有松材线虫病的发生,说明其分布线可能开始向北和高海拔地区移动。因此,在松材线虫低温适应性驯化环境下,对松材线虫在我国的最新风险分布区进行了预测。【方法】将松材线虫分为长期(30 d)暴露和短期(24 h)暴露2组进行低温(3、1、0、-1、-3、-5、-6、-7、-9、-12℃)暴露实验,得出致死温度LT50、LT75和LT99。利用CLIMEX 1.0适生性分析软件与Arc GIS 10.2地理信息系统软件以LT50、LT75和LT99为界限划分风险分布区。利用CLIMEX软件导入新的温度数据对松材线虫进行适生性分析,将结果导入Arc GIS中,进行IDW插值,以EI值划分松材线虫风险分布区。对有无低温胁迫及不同低温胁迫时间下的中度风险分布北线的变化趋势进行分析。【结果】松材线虫长期冷胁迫(30 d)条件下的中度风险分布区界线比短期冷胁迫(24 h)条件下和无胁迫条件下(以EI值划分)的中度风险分布区界线明显靠北。【结论】随着低温胁迫时间的延长,松材线虫分布区有向北扩散的趋势,即产生一定的低温适应性进化。     

麦双尾蚜在中国的适生区预测

根据麦双尾蚜Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko) 在中国新疆的分布地点,对CLIMEX软件中适宜温度上限、限制性高温、有效积温、冷逆境开始积累点、热逆境开始积累点、冷逆境积累速率、热逆境积累速率和湿逆境积累速率等参数值进行修改调试,调整后的CLIMEX生态气候模型,对新疆麦双尾蚜分布的模拟准确率达到90%。由此模型进行预测,云南、新疆、黑龙江、青海、西藏、吉林、辽宁、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、山西和山东等12个省(区)存在麦双尾蚜的适生区。以麦双尾蚜在新疆发生程度和小麦分布区的关系,对CLIMEX的预测结果进行修正,据此推测山东不适合麦双尾蚜生存,东北、西北和西南春麦区麦双尾蚜生存适宜程度比CLIMEX模型预测值降低1/2～3/4。     

红火蚁在中国的分布区预测

利用CLIMEX和GARP生态位模型2种方法对红火蚁在中国大陆的潜在分布区进行了分析预测。结果表明该虫在中国东南部的广大地区均可能适生或造成危害,其自然扩散的北界可能达到山东、天津、河北南部和山西南部。     

气候变暖情境下松材线虫在我国的适生区范围

基于历史气象数据(1971—2000),利用CLIMEX软件对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus在我国的潜在适生区进行了预测,结果显示:松材线虫在我国的适生范围广、适生程度高,全国除黑龙江、吉林省无适生区外,其余各省市区均有适生区域,其中约2/3的适生区为高度适生区,覆盖整个南方地区,分布北界达内蒙古通辽地区,西至西藏的日喀则地区;进一步结合英国气候变化研究中心提供的气候变暖情境下未来气候模拟数据TYNSC2.0,利用CLIMEX软件预测出未来30年内(2010-2039)松材线虫在我国的潜在适生区,结果发现同历史气候条件下相比,未来30年内松材线虫在我国的适生分布区将呈现范围增加、适生程度增加、向北扩散的趋势,其中分布北界将到达吉林省西部,分布西界则与历史气候条件下预测结果相差无几。     

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的桔小实蝇在贵州适生性研究

桔小实蝇Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel)是重要的植物检疫性有害生物,可危害46个科250多种果蔬等作物,在世界上大多数热带、亚热带果蔬产区均有分布。为了解桔小实蝇在贵州潜在危害范围和程度,基于桔小实蝇的生物学特性、已知分布资料和气象数据,采用CLIMEX与Arc GIS软件对桔小实蝇在贵州的适生性、年发生代数和动态进行分析、预测。结果表明,桔小实蝇在贵州适生程度较高,高度适生区面积占全省总面积的88%,桔小实蝇在贵州的发生代数主要为2-6代,发生4到5代的区域最多,常年发生区和季节发生区面积较小,大部分区域为二者间的过渡区,结果为贵州桔小实蝇监测、预警、防控和优化果蔬产业布局提供科学指导。     

CLIMEX:预测物种分布区的软件

CLIMEX是通过物种已知地理分布区域的气候参数来预测物种潜在分布区的软件。 1 999年发布了最新版即CLIMEXforWindows 1 1。CLIMEX有 2个基本假设 :( 1 )物种在 1年内经历 2个时期 ,即适合种群增长时期和不适合以至于危及生存的时期 ;( 2 )气候是影响物种分布的主要因素 ,并利用增长指数、胁迫指数和限制条件 (滞育和有效积温 )描述物种对气候的不同反应 ,这 2组参数构成生态气候指数 ,作为全面描述物种在某地区和年份适合度的指标。模型预测结果以表、图和地图输出。CLIMEX可以用于检疫、生物防治、有害生物风险分析、害虫管理和流行病的预测等。目前已经用于几十种有害生物的适生性研究。该文通过拟和松墨天牛在中国的分布区为例说明CLIMEX的用法 ,并根据松墨天牛在亚洲东部的气候条件 ,预测其在全球的潜在适生区 ,为动植物检疫部门及时采取相应措施控制松材线虫的进一步扩散提供科学依据     

应用模糊综合评判法分析西花蓟马在江苏地区的适生性

根据西花蓟马Frankliniella occidentalis（Pergande）生物学生态学特性,选择年均温（Ta）等七项生态因子,以江苏省13个气象交换站近20年（1981-2000）的气象资料为基本数据,运用模糊综合评判法探讨了该虫在江苏地区的适生性分布范围。结果表明,最适宜分布区主要包括苏州和无锡环太湖地区,适宜分布区主要包括宁镇丘陵、常州、无锡、南通、常熟、张家港及扬泰南部地区,次适宜分布区主要位于江淮和里下河范围,可能适宜区主要包括连云港和盐城的北部沿海地区。     

桔小实蝇在中国云南省的分布(英文)

在云南 1 2个县的诱捕试验表明 ,桔小实蝇在云南的分布可以划分为 3个区域。广南、元江和瑞丽以南的地区为该虫常年发生区。在该区域内 ,桔小实蝇年发生 4- 5代 ,可对瓜果形成周年危害。位于六库、大姚和曲靖以北的地区为该虫的非分布区。本试验未能在该地区诱捕到桔小实蝇或桔小实蝇受害果。位于上述两区域之间的区域为桔小实蝇季节性分布区。桔小实蝇在该地区年发生 2 - 3代 ,出现于 5- 1 1月。桔小实蝇在分布区内不同地区的发生高峰期 ,由南向北逐渐推移 ,如在景洪为 6月而在姚安为 1 0月。在地理垂直分布上 ,该虫主要分布于海拔 50 0 - 2 30 0m范围内 ,而其在 50 0 - 1 0 0 0m范围内发生量最大。研究认为 ,桔小实蝇在上述经度和海拔范围的发生与分布 ,主要与当地气候条件与寄主植物有关。     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国的危险性评估

采用CLIMEX模型预测分析了刺槐叶瘿蚊Obolodiplosis robiniae(Haldemann)在中国的潜在地理分布,并参照我国有害生物危险性定量分析方法,对刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国的危险性作出综合评价.结果表明:刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国潜在的分布区范围是98 30°～132.03°E,24.23°～47.41°N.最宜适生区(EI ≥ 15)包括华北、华中、华南及云南大部分地区;适生区(5 ≤ EI＜15):包括辽宁和河北中南部,山西及陕西南部,四川、甘肃东南部分地区;半适生区(0 ＜ EI ＜ 5):包括黑龙江、吉林、四川大部分地区及西藏、甘肃、宁夏部分地区;其余各地的EI值均小于等于0,属于非适生区.预测其在中国的风险值为2.26,根据国际上风险值分级标准,属于高度危险生物.据此提出了针对性的风险管理措施.     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.     

临海柑橘园橘小实蝇种群数量消长规律

【背景】近年来,随着种植结构的改变以及南方携虫水果的频繁调运,橘小实蝇逐渐向北扩散危害,对水果生产造成严重威胁。【方法】2008～2010年应用性诱剂的监测方法对柑橘园橘小实蝇种群数量进行了定点、系统的跟踪监测;并结合气象资料和田间调查情况,通过对当旬成虫数量与当旬及其前延逐句气象要素的筛选来建模,进而确定影响橘小实蝇种群数量的主要气象因子。【结果】临海柑橘园橘小实蝇种群数量时序变化呈单峰型曲线,其性诱成虫初见期在6月下旬至8月初,高峰期在9月上旬至11月上旬,11月中旬后成虫数量逐渐下降,到12月下旬未诱集到成虫。气象因子筛选和建模结果表明,柑橘园橘小实蝇成虫种群数量年度变动以旬平均温度为决定要素,季节性变化以旬降雨量为决定要素。【结论与意义】临海柑橘园橘小实蝇种群数量随温度和土壤湿度的增大而增长。本研究对提高橘小实蝇监测预警水平、有效控制橘小实蝇危害具有重要意义。     

Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm), an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2), high temperature limit (DV3), upper optimal temperature (SM2) and high soil moisture limit (SM3) had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.     

Predation of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis puparia by the red imported fire ant,Solenopsis invicta: role of host olfactory cues and soil depth

Predation by red imported fire ants, Solenopsis invicta on oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis puparia was evaluated. No significant olfactory response of the workers was observed at 0, 2 and 4 days after fly pupation, whereas the workers were significantly attracted by the 6th day old puparia. We found S. invicta that predated on puparia of B. dorsalis in the field. The predation rate was negatively correlated with the depth of puparia in the soil. The predation rate was 70% at 4 cm depth; whereas, zero predation rate was observed at 6 cm depth. The predation rate was also significantly affected by soil moisture. The predation rate was 66.5% and 72.1% at soil moisture values of 40% and 80%, respectively, and no predation occurred at soil moisture value of 0%.     

Effects of methyl bromide concentration, fumigation time, and fumigation temperature on Mediterranean and oriental fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) egg and larval survival

The effects of methyl bromide (MB) concentration (16, 32,48, or 64 g/m3), fumigation temperature (15, 20, 25, or 30 degrees C), and fumigation time interactions on the survival of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), and oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), eggs and first and third instars were recorded. Increasing the fumigation temperature from 15 to 20 degrees C or from 20 to 25 degrees C resulted in a significant reduction in fumigation time required for equivalent egg and larval mortalities at all studied MB concentrations; no further reductions in fumigation time resulted from increasing the temperature from 25 to 30 degrees C. Conversely, increasing temperature and time allowed for a reduction in MB concentration to obtain equivalent mortality. Thus, the optimum fumigation temperature for Mediterranean and oriental fruit fly eggs and larvae was 25 degrees C. Reducing MB concentrations required for phytosanitary fumigations would save time and expense, and reduce the amount of MB released into the atmosphere during aeration. Mediterranean fruit fly was as or more tolerant to MB than oriental fruit fly in MB tolerance for eggs and first instars. The egg stage was generally more tolerant to MB regardless of concentration. However, Mediterranean fruit fly eggs showed similar tolerance to first instars at 25 degrees C for the three highest concentrations and to third instars at 25 and 30 degrees C for the highest concentration, with no significant difference between them. Therefore, eggs alone can be used to obtain MB fumigation efficacy and quarantine security data at fumigation temperatures between 15 and 30 degrees C for Mediterranean and oriental fruit fly.     

Susceptibility of low-chill blueberry cultivars to Mediterranean fruit fly, oriental fruit fly, and melon fly (Diptera: Tephritidae)

No-choice tests were conducted to determine whether fruit of southern highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., hybrids are hosts for three invasive tephritid fruit flies in Hawaii. Fruit of various blueberry cultivars was exposed to gravid female flies of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (oriental fruit fly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Mediterranean fruit fly), or Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillet (melon fly) in screen cages outdoors for 6 h and then held on sand in the laboratory for 2 wk for pupal development and adult emergence. Each of the 15 blueberry cultivars tested were infested by oriental fruit fly and Mediterranean fruit fly, confirming that these fruit flies will oviposit on blueberry fruit and that blueberry is a suitable host for fly development. However, there was significant cultivar variation in susceptibility to fruit fly infestation. For oriental fruit fly, 'Sapphire' fruit produced an average of 1.42 puparia per g, twice as high as that of the next most susceptible cultivar 'Emerald' (0.70 puparia per g). 'Legacy', 'Biloxi', and 'Spring High' were least susceptible to infestation, producing only 0.20-0.25 oriental fruit fly puparia per g of fruit. For Mediterranean fruit fly, 'Blue Crisp' produced 0.50 puparia per g of fruit, whereas 'Sharpblue' produced only 0.03 puparia per g of fruit. Blueberry was a marginal host for melon fly. This information will aid in development of pest management recommendations for blueberry cultivars as planting of low-chill cultivars expands to areas with subtropical and tropical fruit flies. Planting of fruit fly resistant cultivars may result in lower infestation levels and less crop loss.     

Potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

Abstract Apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) is a major pest causing considerable economic losses of fruits in North America. During the development of international trade, apple maggot fly has become a threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in China. The parameters used in CLIMEX for apple maggot fly were derived from ecological data and the present geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in North America. Then the potential distribution map in China was presented based on the adjusted values of these parameters. The results showed that apple maggot fly has a wide potential distribution area in China; 47.5% of 748 meteorological stations presented high or medium suitability of pest establishment. These high suitable stations are mainly located in northeast, southwest and northwest of China, such as Liaoning, Shandong, Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces. These areas are also the central regions of apple, pear and peach production in China. Two hundred and twenty‐five stations (30.1%) in western and southern China, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan, were unsuitable for establishment of apple maggot fly populations. In order to prevent the introduction of apple maggot fly in China, the present plant quarantine measures should be enhanced, especially in the areas with high suitability for the presence of apple maggot fly.     

The current and future potential geographic range of West Indian fruit fly,Anastrepha obliqua （Diptera： Tephritidae）

The West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua （Macquart）, is one of the most important pests throughout the Americas. CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of this pest. Under current climatic conditions, A. obliqua is predicted to be able to establish throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including not only North and South America, where it has been reported, but also southern Asia, northeastern Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main factors limiting the pest＇s range expansion may be cold stress. Climate change expands the potential distribution of A. obliqua poleward as cold stress boundaries recede, but the predicted distribution in northwestern Australia and northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease because of heat stress. Considering the widely suitable range for A. obliqua globally and in China, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.     

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, in China: origin and gradual inland range expansion associated with population growth

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, expanded throughout mainland China in the last century to become one of the most serious pests in the area, yet information on this process are fragmentary. Three mitochondrial genes (nad1, cytb and nad5) were used to infer the genetic diversity, population structure and demographic history of the oriental fruit fly from its entire distribution range in China. High levels of genetic diversity, as well as a significant correspondence between genetic and geographic distances, suggest that the invasion process might have been gradual, with no associated genetic bottlenecks. Three population groups could be identified, nevertheless the overall genetic structure was weak. The effective number of migrants between populations, estimated using the coalescent method, suggested asymmetric gene flow from the costal region of Guangdong to most inland regions. The demographic analysis indicates the oriental fruit fly underwent a recent population expansion in the Central China. We suggest the species originated in the costal region facing the South China Sea and gradually expanded to colonize mainland China, expanding here to high population numbers.     

利用微卫星标记初步分析橘小实蝇4个地理种群的遗传多态性

橘小实蝇Bactrocera dorsalis(Bactrocera)(Hendel)是我国重要的检疫性害虫,对果蔬生产及其国际贸易造成很大影响。作者运用微卫星分子标记技术,用6对微卫星引物对采自我国福建、广东、云南3个地区及邻近国越南橘小实蝇种群间的遗传关系进行了初步分析,结果显示上述4个橘小实蝇地理种群间存在一定的遗传差异,地理隔离是造成这一差异的主要原因。