长白山云冷杉针阔混交林主要树种空间分布及其关联性

应用点格局分析方法 O-ring函数,分析了长白山云冷杉针阔混交林主要树种以及各生长阶段的空间分布格局和空间关联性。结果表明:(1)林分整体、主要建群种冷杉、云杉和红松的径级分布呈倒"J"型分布,属于增长型种群。(2)林分整体、冷杉、色木槭在0—10 m小尺度上均呈聚集分布,其他尺度上以随机分布为主,云杉、红松和椴树在整个研究尺度上以随机分布为主。(3)冷杉和色木槭在较低龄级阶段小尺度上呈明显的聚集分布,较大尺度上呈随机分布或者均匀分布,冷杉聚集程度随着龄级增大而降低。(4)在冷杉、云杉、红松、椴树和色木槭5个树种组成的10个种对中,冷杉与红松、云杉与红松在小尺度0—10 m范围上以正相关为主;色木槭与冷杉、红松、椴树在小尺度0—5 m范围上主要以正相关为主;云杉和冷杉、椴树、色木槭在整个研究尺度上均以不相关为主。椴树和冷杉、色木槭在10—25 m尺度范围上以负相关为主。(5)幼龄层冷杉与乔木层冷杉在小尺度上呈显著负相关,与乔木层其他树种主要表现为不相关。     

长白山云冷杉林幼苗幼树空间分布格局及其更新特征

长白山云冷杉针阔混交林是我国东北主要的森林类型之一,其乔木树种幼苗幼树的结构和动态决定着未来林分的结构和生长动态。在长白山地区设置一块具有代表性的云冷杉针阔混交林幼苗幼树更新样地,统计分析幼苗幼树更新特征,绘制地径结构图、树高结构图及其空间分布图。运用点格局分析中的单变量O-ring统计方法,分析更新树种的空间分布格局;用双变量O-ring统计方法,分析更新树种种间的空间关联性。研究结果表明:(1)更新树种组成有冷杉(Abies nephrolepis)、色木槭(Acer mono)、紫椴(Tilia amurensis)、红皮云杉(Picea koraiensis)、红松(Pinus koraiensis)、蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica)、春榆(Ulmus japonica)7种,其中以冷杉、色木槭为主,更新幼苗幼树的地径近似呈倒J型分布,树高结构近似呈双峰分布;(2)所有更新树种、冷杉、色木槭在小尺度1—10 m的范围内呈聚集分布,随着尺度增加,聚集程度减弱,逐渐趋于均匀分布和随机分布,紫椴、云杉和红松在空间所有尺度上以随机分布为主;(3)更新树种之间的空间关联性在小尺度范围上正关联性比较多,较大尺度范围上负关联性比较多,随着尺度增加,空间关联性减弱。     

温带4种针叶树种春、秋季节树干维持呼吸的日动态

揭示树干维持呼吸(RM)的时间变化特征及其调控因子有助于理解树木碳代谢过程及其对环境变化的响应和构建森林碳循环机理模型。采用红外气体分析法原位测定东北东部山区4个针叶树种(红松、红皮云杉、樟子松和兴安落叶松)的春、秋季节RM日动态及其影响因子。结果表明:秋季和春季4个树种RM日变化多随树干温度(TW)而变化,但RM峰值大小和出现时间以及日变化幅度因树种和季节而异。TW解释了RM(除春季樟子松外)变异性的50%以上,但RM对TW响应滞后1.5 h(春季樟子松为3 h)。将RM标准化到TW为10℃(R10)时发现,秋季R10波动在0.54μmol CO2m-2s-1(兴安落叶松)—0.78μmol CO2m-2s-1(红皮云杉)之间,而春季R10则波动在0.87μmol CO2m-2s-1(红松)—1.10μmol CO2m-2s-1(樟子松)之间,前者平均低于后者约40%。然而,各树种秋季和春季RM的Q10值差异不显著(P0.05),波动在1.52(樟子松)—1.82(红皮云杉)之间。秋季和春季所有树种的R10与树木胸径(DBH)之间均呈显著的正相关关系(P0.05),而Q10与DBH则多呈负相关关系(P0.05),表明DBH可作为估测这些针叶树种RM的参数之一。     

阿尔泰山萨彦岭4种优势树种径向生长对气候因子的响应

气候变化深刻地影响森林树木的生长,而树种对气候变化敏感度的差异可能影响了气候变化下的森林生态系统响应。因此,研究优势树种间生长对气候变化的敏感度差异,对正确认识气候变化下林分生长动态及分布格局十分重要。基于树木年代学的方法,研究了阿尔泰山萨彦岭西伯利亚落叶松（Larix sibirica）、西伯利亚红松（Pinus sibirica）、西伯利亚冷杉（Abies sibirica）以及西伯利亚云杉（Picea obovata）4种优势树种的径向生长-气候关系。结果显示：（1）西伯利亚冷杉径向生长与上一年10-11月、当年1-9月的干旱指数、2-4月的降水显著正相关,与1月的平均温和最高温呈显著负相关关系,与当年4、6月份的水汽压正相关;（2）西伯利亚落叶松径向生长与上一年8月和当年8月的平均温、最高温以及当年8月的最低温显著负相关,而与当年6月的最低温则正相关,与8月份的水汽压显著负相关;（3）西伯利亚红松径向生长与3月降水、7月最低温、上一年10月的水汽压显著正相关;（4）西伯利亚云杉径向生长与6月平均温、最高温、水汽压正相关,与上一年10-11月、当年2-4月和9月的干旱指数正相关,同时与3、4月的降水量显著正相关。西伯利亚冷杉和西伯利亚云杉、西伯利亚云杉和西伯利亚落叶松、西伯利亚云杉和西伯利亚红松对于特定气候因子表现出相似的响应结果,与年表间相关性的结果一致。但差异也是明显的,西伯利亚冷杉和西伯利亚云杉对区域水分变化敏感,而西伯利亚落叶松和西伯利亚红松主要对区域温度变化敏感。综上所述,气候变化下,该区域优势树种对气候变化响应的差异可能导致区域林分动态和格局的改变,因此,多树种径向生长-气候关系研究有助于正确反映森林动态。研究结果可以为区域森林管理与生态保护工作提供理论依据。     

气候变化条件下东北森林主要建群种的空间分布

全球气候模型HADCM2SUL和CC-CM1分别预测100a后全球年均温增加3．7℃和5．2℃,年降水增加30．7％和25．1％。为了研究东北森林对这两种预测方案的反应,使用logistic回归模型分析了东北森林8个建群种与11种环境因子之间的相关关系。结果表明,除了山杨和蒙古栎之外,年均温是决定其它树种存在与否的重要因子。采用模型结果预测现行气候条件下8个树种的分布并与其现实分布比较,发现针叶树种的总正确率、敏感度、指定度和错误肯定率均比阔叶树种的要高,而错误否定率比后者低,说明模型对针叶树种的拟合程度要优于对阔叶树种的拟合程度。在此基础上,预测了8个树种在两种气候变化方案下100a后的分布图。结果表明,在HADCM2SUL方案下,兴安落叶松、白桦、冷杉和云杉的覆盖率分别下降91．2％、67．4％、11．9％、10％;长白落叶松、红松和蒙古栎的覆盖率分别增长87．8％、54．6％、31．3％;在CGCM1方案下,兴安落叶松、白桦、云杉、冷杉和红松的覆盖率分别下降99．2％、89．9％、85．9％、83．2％、4．9％;长白落叶松、蒙古栎的覆盖率分别增长93．3％、27．5％;山杨在这两种方案下数量不变。     

落叶松毛虫(Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetw.)生活史的初步观察

一.绪言 在祖国的东北,大、小兴安岭和长白山地区有着广大面积的针叶林和针叶与阔叶混交林。其中最主要的树种有:红松、獐子松、兴安落叶松、黄花落叶松、鱼鳞云杉、臭冷杉、蒙古栎、水曲柳、胡桃楸、黄波萝、桦、杨、榆、槭、椴等等,大多是极优良的建筑用材,     

东北森林与生态平衡

东北地区包括辽、吉、黑三省和内蒙古东部四盟,为一个完整的自然经济区域,本区内森林资源丰富,自古称著于世。从地质年代第四纪之后,本区植物群落基本形成,大兴安岭南北两坡分布茂密的寒温带针叶林,小兴安岭、完达山、老爷岭、张广才岭以及长白山林区生长的红松为主的针阔叶混交林。林区的特点是珍贵树种较多,如红松、落叶松、云冷杉、樟子松等针叶树种,椴、水曲柳、黄菠萝等阔叶树种。林区内动、植物种类繁多,经济价值较高,如出产著名的东北虎、驼鹿、紫貂、黑熊等     

东北林区4个天然针叶树种单木生物量模型误差结构及可加性模型

基于276株实测生物量数据,构建了东北林区红松、臭冷杉、红皮云杉和兴安落叶松4个天然针叶树种总量及各分项生物量一元、二元可加性生物量模型.采用似然分析法判断总量及各分项生物量异速生长模型的误差结构(可加型或相乘型),而模型参数估计采用非线性似乎不相关回归模型方法.结果表明: 经似然分析法判断,4个天然树种总量及各分项生物量异速生长模型的误差结构都是相乘型的,对数转换的可加性生物量可以被选用.各树种可加性生物量模型的调整后确定系数R_a²为0.85～0.99,平均相对误差为-7.7%～5.5%,平均相对误差绝对值<30.5%.增加树高可以显著提高各树种可加性生物量模型的拟合效果和预测能力,而且总量、地上和树干生物量模型效果较好,树根、树枝、树叶和树冠生物量模型效果较差.所建立的可加性生物量模型的预测精度为77.0%～99.7%(平均92.3%),可以很好地预估东北林区天然红松、臭冷杉、红皮云杉和兴安落叶松的生物量.
     

长白山云冷杉林优势树种的竞争

优势种是植物群落各层次中占优势的植物种,混交林优势树种竞争关系的研究对合理经营混交林具有重要意义.本研究在吉林省汪清县金沟岭林场内,选择立地条件一致的云冷杉天然林,设置大小100 m×100 m样地.首先,用优势度分析法确定群落优势树种;其次,以优势树种为对象木,采用可描述单株林木侧方上方、种内种间竞争强度的林木竞争指数分析优势树种的竞争关系.结果表明: 该云冷杉天然林有3个优势树种:臭冷杉、红皮云杉、红松.样地中,小径级林木较多,群落林木趋于小龄化,3个优势树种的竞争树种主要有臭冷杉、红皮云杉、红松、枫桦、紫椴、青楷槭和白桦.3个优势树种受到的竞争最激烈的是臭冷杉(1412.48),其次是红皮云杉(439.17)、红松(245.28),都主要承受侧方挤占,臭冷杉、红皮云杉、红松的侧方挤占分别占各优势树种竞争强度的64.9%、65.2%、66.0%;3个优势树种侧方上方平均竞争强度大致随个体胸径的增大而减少,小径级林木的侧方上方平均竞争强度几乎相等,对象木径级越大,所承受的侧方挤占比例越大,大径级林木几乎不承受上方遮盖;3个优势树种的侧方上方竞争主要来源于臭冷杉、红皮云杉、红松、紫椴、枫桦、青楷槭和白桦.3个优势树种种间竞争均比种内竞争激烈,臭冷杉、红皮云杉、红松的种间竞争分别占各优势树种竞争强度的58.4%、87.1%、83.7%,且竞争强度大致随个体胸径的增大而减少.     

小兴安岭阔叶红松林物种组成及主要种群的空间分布格局

研究了黑龙江省凉水国家自然保护区阔叶红松林的物种组成和径级结构,并应用点格局分析方法对其主要种群的空间分布格局及空间关联性进行了研究.结果表明: 该保护区内阔叶红松林中胸径≥1 cm的乔木共有16种,种群密度差异性很大,针叶树种红松和冷杉处于明显的优势地位;种群的径级结构近似倒“J”形,林分更新良好;主要种群的分布格局多呈聚集分布,只有红松在19～21 m和44 m尺度上以及青楷槭在接近所研究的最大尺度上时才呈现出随机分布.其中,红松在所研究尺度上一直都接近于随机分布,聚集强度也最小,冷杉、紫椴和青楷槭的分布格局都呈现出随机分布的趋势;除红松和冷杉在2～3 m的小尺度上,以及冷杉和青楷槭在37～81 m尺度上呈显著正相关外,其余种群的空间关联性均不显著.所有树种的总体联结关系均表现为不显著的正关联.
     

红松存在/不存在数据的多尺度空间分布格局

红松属小兴安岭地区地带性植被优势种,该地区也是其分布的北缘。在景观尺度上开展红松的分布格局研究有利于进一步了解红松分布机理、未来迁移过程等问题,对其经营和保护有重要意义。将景观指数法与点格局分析法结合,设定8个空间尺度,利用红松存在/不存在数据,通过计算各空间尺度上红松聚集程度和景观指数,分析小兴安岭地区红松种群在多尺度上的分布格局。研究结果表明,小尺度上红松聚集分布明显,随机分布区多处于其聚集分布区的边缘,均匀分布区则散布在其聚集分布区内。景观指数研究表明,通过景观指数可判断红松聚集分布格局趋势,而不能判断均匀分布、随机分布格局趋势,因为它们在多尺度下景观指数波动大,不能用景观指数来描述分布格局。研究得出如下结论:1)红松主要分布在其分布区的核心区域内,在分布区边缘和过渡带上呈随机分布,2)存在/不存在数据能够用来分析种群的多尺度空间分布格局,3)空间尺度的变化会引起树种分布格局的变化,随机分布随尺度增加,边缘化程度加强,4)单一尺度上,景观格局指数不能完全描述种群分布格局;而在多尺度上,变化趋势稳定的景观指数表明聚集分布存在,而波动剧烈的景观指数常与随机分布和均匀分布联系在一起,5)地形因子中,红松对坡度和海拔两个因子变化敏感。     

凉水自然保护区松鼠和星鸦贮食生境选择差异

2003 年9 月30 日～2005 年10 月8 日,在黑龙江凉水国家级自然保护区,应用样方调查法, 采用Vanderploeg和Scavia 选择系数Wi和选择指数Ei作为衡量指标,对松鼠和星鸦贮食生境选择进行了研究。结果表明, 二者贮食生境选择优先顺序略有不同,松鼠偏爱的贮食生境依次是: 云杉林、原始红松林、人工红松林、针阔混交林、人工云杉林、白桦林、针叶混交林、人工落叶松林、阔叶混交林、冷杉林和其它。星鸦对贮食生境的偏爱程度依次为: 人工红松林、原始红松林、云杉林、人工云杉林、针阔混交林、阔叶混交林、白桦林、针叶混交林、人工落叶松林、冷杉林和其它。在对贮食微生境因子的选择利用上, 二者大致相同,只是在对优势灌丛的选择上略有差异, 松鼠优先选择在狗枣猕猴桃优势灌丛内贮藏红松种子, 而星鸦优先选择在刺五加优势灌丛内贮食。松鼠和星鸦贮食生境选择的差异将对随后的红松天然更新过程产生不同的影响。     

Contrasting climate-growth relationship between Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica along a latitudinal gradient in Daxing’an Mountains,China

The Daxing’an Mountains is one of the areas with the most serious climate warming in northern China. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) and Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) are two major coniferous species in boreal forests of the region. Their growth-climate relationship is crucial for understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forest ecosystems. To examine and compare the changes of climate-growth relationship between larch and pine, a total of 418 tree-ring cores of the two species were collected at six sites in the Daxing’an Mountains, and the tree-ring chronologies were developed. The results showed that water availability (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) played a key role in the stable growth of larch and pine. The temperature and precipitation in January, June-August are important factors affecting the radial growth of the two coniferous species along the latitude gradient. The correlation coefficients of growth and the seasonal temperature and precipitation of larch and pine showed a completely opposite trend with the increase of latitude. In summer and autumn, the correlation coefficients between larch growth and seasonal mean temperature decreased first and then increased with the increase of latitude, while that of pine, on the contrary, increased first and then decreased. In winter, spring and autumn, the correlation coefficients between larch growth and seasonal total precipitation decreased first and then increased with the increase of latitude, while that of pine was opposite. However, the correlation coefficients between larch and pine growth and PDSI showed the same trend with the increase of latitude, decreasing at first and then increasing. Before and after rapid warming (around 1980), the correlation coefficients between larch and pine growth and PDSI showed a completely opposite change. Our findings emphasize that the growth-climate relationships of Dahurian larch and Mongolian Scotts pine shows an opposite trend with latitude, which means that the two species may exhibit a completely opposite response with climate change along the latitude gradient.     

长白山三种林型对蛾类群落结构和多样性的影响

选择长白山阔叶红松林、白桦林和落叶松林3种林型,对各林型蛾类的群落结构和多样性进行了比较。结果表明:蛾类各科(亚科)在3种林型中的比例分配明显不同。阔叶红松林中尺蛾科数量占优绝对优势,占47.0%,其次是舟蛾科,为9.3%。优势种为台褥尺蛾,占17.2%;从蛾类总种数和蛾类个体总数上看,白桦林中蛾类物种丰富度、多度和多样性指数明显高于阔叶红松林和落叶松林,优势度指数则最低;白桦林的优势种有尘尺蛾、枞灰尺蛾和双星白枝尺蛾;在落叶松林中,灯蛾科、波纹蛾科和枯叶蛾科的多度都比阔叶红松林和白桦林高,其优势种为阿泊波纹蛾。     

林龄对红松和落叶松人工林土壤温室气体通量的影响

探讨人工林发育过程中土壤温室气体排放及其机制,可为森林温室气体通量估算提供理论依据。采用室内培养方法研究了黑龙江省帽儿山地区不同林龄(15、30和50年生)红松(Pinus koraiensis)和落叶松(Larix gmelinii)人工林土壤温室气体排放/吸收速率及其调控因素。结果表明:30年生红松和落叶松人工林土壤CO₂排放速率(红松:(1724.18±98.57)μg C·kg^-1·h^-1;落叶松:(1306.37±142.27)μg C·kg^-1·h^-1)和CH₄吸收速率(红松:(5.12±0.68)μg C·kg^-1·h^-1;落叶松:(1.91±0.85)μg C·kg^-1·h^-1)显著高于15和50年生(P<0.05)。30年生红松人工林土壤N₂O排放速率显著高于15和50年生(P<0.05),而落叶松人工林土壤N₂O排放速率随林龄增加变化不显著。红松和落叶松人工林土壤N₂O排放速率最大值分别为(0.139±0.016)和(0.137±0.056)μg N·kg^-1·h^-1。红松人工林土壤CO₂排放速率均高于同龄落叶松人工林,15和30年生达到显著水平(P<0.05)。红松人工林土壤CH₄吸收速率均显著高于同龄落叶松人工林(P<0.05)。红松人工林土壤N₂O排放速率与同龄落叶松人工林土壤均无显著差异。混合线性模型分析显示,影响红松和落叶松人工林发育过程中土壤CO₂排放速率的主要因素是土壤全碳含量和微生物生物量氮,其中微生物生物量氮受树种和林龄的影响。CH₄吸收速率受到微生物生物量碳、溶解性有机碳和溶解性有机氮含量影响,其中微生物生物量碳受树种和林龄调控。N₂O排放速率受溶解性有机氮、铵态氮和硝态氮影响,其中溶解性有机氮受林龄影响。综上所述,树种和林龄差异造成的土壤理化性质和微生物生物量碳氮的异质性可在一定程度上解释土壤温室气体排放/吸收速率的差异。     

Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch

The ability of tree species to cope with anticipated decrease in water availability is still poorly understood. We evaluated the potential of Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, black pine, and Douglas‐fir to withstand drought in a drier future climate by analyzing their past growth and physiological responses at a xeric and a mesic site in Central Europe using dendroecological methods. Earlywood, latewood, and total ring width, as well as the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O in early‐ and latewood were measured and statistically related to a multiscalar soil water deficit index from 1961 to 2009. At the xeric site, δ¹³C values of all species were strongly linked to water deficits that lasted longer than 11 months, indicating a long‐term cumulative effect on the carbon pool. Trees at the xeric site were particularly sensitive to soil water recharge in the preceding autumn and early spring. The native species European larch and Norway spruce, growing close to their dry distribution limit at the xeric site, were found to be the most vulnerable species to soil water deficits. At the mesic site, summer water availability was critical for all species, whereas water availability prior to the growing season was less important. Trees at the mesic were more vulnerable to water deficits of shorter duration than the xeric site. We conclude that if summers become drier, trees growing on mesic sites will undergo significant growth reductions, whereas at their dry distribution limit in the Alps, tree growth of the highly sensitive spruce and larch may collapse, likely inducing dieback and compromising the provision of ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these changes will be mediated strongly by soil water recharge in winter and thus water availability at the beginning of the growing season.     

红松老龄林主要树种的空间异质性特征与比较的定量研究

 空间异质性研究对认识不同尺度上的生态系统结构、功能和过程具有重要的理论意义。采用地统计学理论和方法,通过空间异质性特征和比较研究了我国东北红松老龄林中主要树种,即红松(Pinus koraiensis)、云杉(Picea koraiensis)、冷杉(Abies nephrolepis)、枫桦(Betula costata)和紫椴(Tilia amurensis)的空间异质性程度、空间异质性组成、尺度和格局问题。结果表明：红松老龄林中主要树种虽然生长在同一林分中,但是它们的空间异质性与格局具有明显的差异。红松的空间异质性程度最高,分数维较低,其空间异质性主要由空间自相关部分组成,在450m的尺度内,具有明显的空间格局。枫桦的空间异质性程度最低,分数维最大,空间异质性主要由随机部分组成,在大于100m的尺度上不存在明显的空间格局。云杉和冷杉由于生长的立地相似,因此具有相似的空间异质性特征和格局。紫椴是红松最重要的伴生树种,其空间异质性程度、空间异质性组成、尺度和格局等方面与红松接近。红松老龄林中主要树种空间异质性与格局在一定尺度上的差异,反映这些树种在生态系统中具有不同的生态学功能和过程。     

Reproductive development and maternal effects in the pine weevil Hylobius abietis

1. In a laboratory study of maturation feeding of female pine weevil Hylobius abietis on current and 1‐year‐old stem bark of transplants of Scots and Corsican pine, Norway and Sitka spruce, Douglas fir, and hybrid larch, the length of the pre‐oviposition period was influenced by the species on which weevils fed. The shortest pre‐oviposition period was on hybrid larch (11.8 days) and the longest on Douglas fir (15.5 days). 2. The species on which weevils fed also affected fecundity but there was evidence of a species–year interaction. Over a period of 36 days, most eggs were laid by weevils feeding on current stem of Norway spruce and Corsican and Scots pine and fewest on current stem of Sitka spruce. 3. Significant maternal effects on egg size were observed both in relation to female size and conifer species. The largest eggs were laid on Corsican pine and the smallest on Douglas fir, with no evidence of a trade‐off between number of eggs laid and their size. 4. There was a positive relationship between egg and larval size and between larval size and survival on logs of four conifer species. Residual resistance mechanisms in the bark of recently cut stumps and larval competition are discussed briefly in relation to the importance of the observed maternal effects on weevil population dynamics.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Structure and Composition of Natural Gmelin Larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) Forests in Response to Spatial Climatic Changes

Background

Many theoretical researches predicted that the larch species would decrease drastically in China under future climatic changes. However, responses of the structural and compositional changes of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) forests to climatic changes have rarely been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Field survey was conducted to examine the structures and compositions of natural Gmelin larch forests along a climatic gradient. Stepwise linear regression analyses incorporating linear and quadratic components of climatic and non-climatic factors were performed on the structural and compositional attributes of those natural Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality, Max Temperature of Warmest Month (TempWarmestMonth), Precipitation of Wettest Month (PrecipWettestMonth), Precipitation Seasonality (PrecipSeasonality) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (PrecipDriestQuarter) were observed to be effective climatic factors in controlling structure and composition of Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality significantly affected total basal area of larch, while TempWarmestMonth, PrecipWettestMonth and PrecipSeasonality significantly affected total basal area of Mongolian pine, and PrecipDriestQuarter significantly affected mean DBH of larch, stand density of larch and total basal area of spruce and fir.

Conclusions/Significance

The summer and winter temperatures and precipitations are all predicted to increase in future in Northeast China. Our results showed the increase of total basal area of spruce and fir, the suppression of regeneration and the decrease of stand density of larch under increased winter precipitation, and the decrease of total basal area of larch under increased summer temperature in the region of current Gmelin larch forest. Therefore, we suggest that larch would decrease and spruce and fir would increase in the region of future Gmelin larch forest.