Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.     

Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.     

Species‐rich boreal forests grew more and suffered less mortality than species‐poor forests under the environmental change of the past half‐century

Climate and other global environmental changes are major threats to ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. However, the importance of plant diversity in mitigating the responses of functioning of natural ecosystems to long‐term environmental change remains unclear. Using inventory data of boreal forests of western Canada from 1958 to 2011, we found that aboveground biomass growth increased over time in species‐rich forests but decreased in species‐poor forests, and importantly, aboveground biomass loss from tree mortality was smaller in species‐rich than species‐poor forests. A further analysis indicated that growth of species‐rich (but not species‐poor) forests was statistically positively associated with rising CO₂, and that mortality in species‐poor forests increased more as climate moisture availability decreased than it did in species‐rich forests. In contrast, growth decreased and mortality increased as the climate warmed regardless of species diversity. Our results suggest that promoting high tree diversity may help reduce the climate and environmental change vulnerability of boreal forests.     

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate–boreal ecotone: Is tree size,age, competition,or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO₂ and thereby slow rising CO₂ concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree‐ring records. Yet typical tree‐ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.     

Declines in northern forest tree growth following snowpack decline and soil freezing

Changes in growing season climate are often the foci of research exploring forest response to climate change. By contrast, little is known about tree growth response to projected declines in winter snowpack and increases in soil freezing in seasonally snow‐covered forest ecosystems, despite extensive documentation of the importance of winter climate in mediating ecological processes. We conducted a 5‐year snow‐removal experiment whereby snow was removed for the first 4–5 weeks of winter in a northern hardwood forest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Our results indicate that adverse impacts of reduced snowpack and increased soil freezing on the physiology of Acer saccharum (sugar maple), a dominant species across northern temperate forests, are accompanied by a 40 ± 3% reduction in aboveground woody biomass increment, averaged across the 6 years following the start of the experiment. Further, we find no indication of growth recovery 1 year after cessation of the experiment. Based on these findings, we integrate spatial modeling of snowpack depth with forest inventory data to develop a spatially explicit, regional‐scale assessment of the vulnerability of forest aboveground growth to projected declines in snowpack depth and increased soil frost. These analyses indicate that nearly 65% of sugar maple basal area in the northeastern United States resides in areas that typically experience insulating snowpack. However, under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios, we project a 49%–95% reduction in forest area experiencing insulating snowpack by the year 2099 in the northeastern United States, leaving large areas of northern forest vulnerable to these changes in winter climate, particularly along the northern edge of the region. Our study demonstrates that research focusing on growing season climate alone overestimates the stimulatory effect of warming temperatures on tree and forest growth in seasonally snow‐covered forests.     

北京山区3种暖温带森林生态系统未来碳平衡的模拟与分析

使用LPJ-GUESS植被动态模型, 在北京山区研究了未来100a以辽东栎 (Quercus liaotungensis) 为优势种的落叶阔叶林、以白桦 (Betula platyphylla) 为主的阔叶林和油松 (Pinus tabulaeformis) 为优势种的针阔混交林的碳变化, 定量分析了生态系统净初级生产力 (NPP) 、土壤异养呼吸 (Rh) 、净生态系统碳交换 (NEE) 和碳生物量 (Carbon bio-mass) 对两种未来气候情景 (SRES A2和B2) 以及相应大气CO2浓度变化情景的响应特征。结果表明:1) 未来100a两种气候情景下3种森林生态系统的NPP和Rh均增加, 并且A2情景下增加的程度更大;2) 由于3种生态系统树种组成的不同, 未来气候情景下各自NPP和Rh增加的比例不同, 导致三者NEE的变化也相异:100a后辽东栎林由碳汇转变为弱碳源, 白桦林仍保持为碳汇但功能减弱, 油松林成为一个更大的碳汇;3) 3种森林生态系统的碳生物量在未来气候情景下均增大, 21世纪末与20世纪末相比:辽东栎林在A2情景下碳生物量增加的比例为27.6%, 大于B2情景下的19.3%;白桦林和油松林在B2情景下碳生物量增加的比例分别为34.2%和52.2%, 大于A2情景下的30.8%和28.4%。     

Demographic Drivers of Aboveground Biomass Dynamics During Secondary Succession in Neotropical Dry and Wet Forests

The magnitude of the carbon sink in second-growth forests is expected to vary with successional biomass dynamics resulting from tree growth, recruitment, and mortality, and with the effects of climate on these dynamics. We compare aboveground biomass dynamics of dry and wet Neotropical forests, based on monitoring data gathered over 3–16 years in forests covering the first 25 years of succession. We estimated standing biomass, annual biomass change, and contributions of tree growth, recruitment, and mortality. We also evaluated tree species’ contributions to biomass dynamics. Absolute rates of biomass change were lower in dry forests, 2.3 and 1.9 Mg ha^?1 y^?1, after 5–15 and 15–25 years after abandonment, respectively, than in wet forests, with 4.7 and 6.1 Mg ha^?1 y^?1, in the same age classes. Biomass change was largely driven by tree growth, accounting for at least 48% of biomass change across forest types and age classes. Mortality also contributed strongly to biomass change in wet forests of 5–15 years, whereas its contribution became important later in succession in dry forests. Biomass dynamics tended to be dominated by fewer species in early-successional dry than wet forests, but dominance was strong in both forest types. Overall, our results indicate that biomass dynamics during succession are faster in Neotropical wet than dry forests, with high tree mortality earlier in succession in the wet forests. Long-term monitoring of second-growth tropical forest plots is crucial for improving estimates of annual biomass change, and for enhancing understanding of the underlying mechanisms and demographic drivers.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region

Aim To determine the potential combined effects of climate change and land transformation on the modelled geographic ranges of Banksia. Location Mediterranean climate South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods We used the species distribution modelling software Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate‐severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species’ ranges into account. The species were chosen to reflect the biogeography of Banksia in the SWAFR. Results Climate‐severity scenario, dispersal scenario, biogeographic distribution and land transformation all influenced the direction and magnitude of the modelled range change responses for the 18 species. The predominant response of species to all climate change scenarios was range contraction, with exceptions for some northern and widespread species. Including land transformation in estimates of modelled geographic range size for the three climate‐severity scenarios generally resulted in smaller gains and larger declines in species ranges across both dispersal scenarios. Including land transformation and assuming zero dispersal resulted, as expected, in the greatest declines in projected range size across all species. Increasing climate change severity greatly increased the risk of decline in the 18 Banksia species, indicating the critical role of mitigating future emissions. Main conclusions The combined effects of climate change and land transformation may have significant adverse impacts on endemic Proteaceae in the SWAFR, especially under high emissions scenarios and if, as expected, natural migration is limiting. Although these results need cautious interpretation in light of the many assumptions underlying the techniques used, the impacts identified warrant a clear focus on monitoring across species ranges to detect early signs of change, and experiments that determine physiological thresholds for species in order to validate and refine the models.