Virus isolation and molecular epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) from an outbreak in free-ranging wild birds,India 2016

We report the molecular epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus involved in an outbreak causing death in free-ranging wild birds at Mysore, Karnataka state of India. The virus was typed as HPAI A(H5N8) by conventional and TaqMan probe based real-time PCR assays. Six isolates of HPAI virus were recovered in 9-day-old embryonated chicken eggs. Haemagglutinin gene-based phylogeny of virus isolates showed >?99.9% nucleotide sequence identity with HPAI A(H5N8) isolates from migratory birds and domestic poultry from China and Korea indicating either these wild birds have routed their migration through Korea and/or eastern China or these dead birds must have directly or indirectly contacted with wild birds migrating from Eastern China and/or Korean regions. The study emphasises the role of migratory wild birds in spread of HPAI across the globe.     

Characterization of low-pathogenic H5 subtype influenza viruses from Eurasia: implications for the origin of highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are now endemic in many Asian countries, resulting in repeated outbreaks in poultry and increased cases of human infection. The immediate precursor of these HPAI viruses is believed to be A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 (Gs/GD)-like H5N1 HPAI viruses first detected in Guangdong, China, in 1996. From 2000 onwards, many novel reassortant H5N1 influenza viruses or genotypes have emerged in southern China. However, precursors of the Gs/GD-like viruses and their subsequent reassortants have not been fully determined. Here we characterize low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5 subtype viruses isolated from poultry and migratory birds in southern China and Europe from the 1970s to the 2000s. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Gs/GD-like virus was likely derived from an LPAI H5 virus in migratory birds. However, its variants arose from multiple reassortments between Gs/GD-like virus and viruses from migratory birds or with those Eurasian viruses isolated in the 1970s. It is of note that unlike HPAI H5N1 viruses, those recent LPAI H5 viruses have not become established in aquatic or terrestrial poultry. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the dynamic nature of the influenza virus gene pool in Eurasia with repeated transmissions between the eastern and western extremities of the continent. The data also show reassortment between influenza viruses from domestic and migratory birds in this region that has contributed to the expanded diversity of the influenza virus gene pool among poultry in Eurasia.     

Surveillance and isolation of HPAI H5N1 from wild Mandarin Ducks (Aix galericulata)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus circulates among a variety of free-ranging wild birds and continually poses a threat to animal and human health. During the winter of 2010-2011, we surveyed Korean wild bird habitats. From 728 fresh fecal samples, 14 HPAI H5N1 viruses were identified. The isolates phylogenetically clustered with other recently isolated clade 2.3.2 HPAI H5N1 viruses isolated from wild birds in Mongolia. All HPAI-positive fecal samples were analyzed by DNA barcoding for host-species identification. Twelve of the 14 HPAI-positive samples were typed as Mandarin Duck (Aix galericulata). The high incidence of HPAI subtype H5N1 viruses in wild Mandarin Duck droppings is a novel finding and underscores the need for enhanced avian influenza virus surveillance in wild Mandarin Ducks. Further investigation of the susceptibility of Mandarin Ducks to HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.2 virus would aid the understanding of HPAI ecology and epidemiology in wild birds.     

Homo- and heterosubtypic low pathogenic avian influenza exposure on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa)

Wild birds in the Orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are the natural reservoirs for avian influenza (AI) viruses. Although they are often infected with multiple AI viruses, the significance and extent of acquired immunity in these populations is not understood. Pre-existing immunity to AI virus has been shown to modulate the outcome of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in multiple domestic avian species, but few studies have addressed this effect in wild birds. In this study, the effect of pre-exposure to homosubtypic (homologous hemagglutinin) and heterosubtypic (heterologous hemagglutinin) low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses on the outcome of a H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa) was evaluated. Pre-exposure of wood ducks to different LPAI viruses did not prevent infection with H5N1 HPAI virus, but did increase survival associated with H5N1 HPAI virus infection. The magnitude of this effect on the outcome of the H5N1 HPAI virus infection varied between different LPAI viruses, and was associated both with efficiency of LPAI viral replication in wood ducks and the development of a detectable humoral immune response. These observations suggest that in naturally occurring outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI, birds with pre-existing immunity to homologous hemagglutinin or neuraminidase subtypes of AI virus may either survive H5N1 HPAI virus infection or live longer than naïve birds and, consequently, could pose a greater risk for contributing to viral transmission and dissemination. The mechanisms responsible for this protection and/or the duration of this immunity remain unknown. The results of this study are important for surveillance efforts and help clarify epidemiological data from outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI virus in wild bird populations.     

Influenza a viruses from wild birds in Guatemala belong to the North American lineage

The role wild bird species play in the transmission and ecology of avian influenza virus (AIV) is well established; however, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the worldwide distribution of these viruses, specifically about the prevalence and/or significance of AIV in Central and South America. As part of an assessment of the ecology of AIV in Guatemala, we conducted active surveillance in wild birds on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Cloacal and tracheal swab samples taken from resident and migratory wild birds were collected from February 2007 to January 2010.1913 samples were collected and virus was detected by real time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) in 28 swab samples from ducks (Anas discors). Virus isolation was attempted for these positive samples, and 15 isolates were obtained from the migratory duck species Blue-winged teal. The subtypes identified included H7N9, H11N2, H3N8, H5N3, H8N4, and H5N4. Phylogenetic analysis of the viral sequences revealed that AIV isolates are highly similar to viruses from the North American lineage suggesting that bird migration dictates the ecology of these viruses in the Guatemalan bird population.     

Reemerging H5N1 influenza viruses in Hong Kong in 2002 are highly pathogenic to ducks

Waterfowl are the natural reservoir of all influenza A viruses, which are usually nonpathogenic in wild aquatic birds. However, in late 2002, outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus caused deaths among wild migratory birds and resident waterfowl, including ducks, in two Hong Kong parks. In February 2003, an avian H5N1 virus closely related to one of these viruses was isolated from two humans with acute respiratory distress, one of whom died. Antigenic analysis of the new avian isolates showed a reactivity pattern different from that of H5N1 viruses isolated in 1997 and 2001. This finding suggests that significant antigenic variation has recently occurred among H5N1 viruses. We inoculated mallards with antigenically different H5N1 influenza viruses isolated between 1997 and 2003. The new 2002 avian isolates caused systemic infection in the ducks, with high virus titers and pathology in multiple organs, particularly the brain. Ducks developed acute disease, including severe neurological dysfunction and death. Virus was also isolated at high titers from the birds' drinking water and from contact birds, demonstrating efficient transmission. In contrast, H5N1 isolates from 1997 and 2001 were not consistently transmitted efficiently among ducks and did not cause significant disease. Despite a high level of genomic homology, the human isolate showed striking biological differences from its avian homologue in a duck model. This is the first reported case of lethal influenza virus infection in wild aquatic birds since 1961.     

Success Factors for Avian Influenza Vaccine Use in Poultry and Potential Impact at the Wild Bird–Agricultural Interface

Thirty-two epizootics of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported in poultry and other birds since 1959. The ongoing H5N1 HPAI epizootic that began in 1996 has also spilled over to infect wild birds. Traditional stamping-out programs in poultry have resulted in eradication of most HPAI epizootics. However, vaccination of poultry was added as a control tool in 1995 and has been used during five epizootics. Over 113 billion doses of AI vaccine have been used in poultry from 2002 to 2010 as oil-emulsified, inactivated whole AIV vaccines (95.5%) and live vectored vaccines (4.5%). Over 99% of the vaccine has been used in the four H5N1 HPAI enzootic countries: China including Hong Kong (91%), Egypt (4.7%), Indonesia (2.3%), and Vietnam (1.4%) where vaccination programs have been nationwide and routine to all poultry. Ten other countries used vaccine in poultry in a focused, risk-based manner but this accounted for less than 1% of the vaccine used. Most vaccine “failures” have resulted from problems in the vaccination process; i.e., failure to adequately administer the vaccine to at-risk poultry resulting in lack of population immunity, while fewer failures have resulted from antigenic drift of field viruses away from the vaccine viruses. It is currently not feasible to vaccinate wild birds against H5N1 HPAI, but naturally occurring infections with H5 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses may generate cross-protective immunity against H5N1 HPAI. The most feasible method to prevent and control H5N1 HPAI in wild birds is through control of the disease in poultry with use of vaccine to reduce environmental burden of H5N1 HPAIV, and eventual eradication of the virus in domestic poultry, especially in domestic ducks which are raised in enzootic countries on range or in other outdoor systems having contact with wild aquatic and periurban terrestrial birds.     

Susceptibility of wood ducks to H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Since 2002, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have caused mortality in numerous species of wild birds; this is atypical for avian influenza virus (AIV) infections in these avian species, especially for species within the order Anseriformes. Although these infections document the susceptibility of wild birds to H5N1 HPAI viruses and the spillover of these viruses from infected domestic birds to wild birds, it is unknown whether H5N1 HPAI viruses can persist in free-living avian populations. In a previous study, we established that wood ducks (Aix sponsa) are highly susceptible to infection with H5N1 HPAI viruses. To quantify this susceptibility and further evaluate the likelihood of H5N1 HPAI viral maintenance in a wild bird population, we determined the concentration of virus required to produce infection in wood ducks. To accomplish this, 25 wood ducks were inoculated intranasally at 12-16 wk of age with decreasing concentrations of a H5N1 HPAI virus (A/Whooper Swan/Mongolia/244/05 [H5N1]). The median infectious dose and the lethal dose of H5N1 HPAI virus in wood ducks were very low (10(0.95) and 10(1.71) median embryo infectious dose [EID(50)]/ml, respectively) and less than that of chickens (10(2.80) and 10(2.80) EID(50)/ml). These results confirm that wood ducks are highly susceptible to infection with H5N1 HPAI virus. The data from this study, combined with what is known experimentally about H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks and viral persistence in aquatic environments, suggest that the wood duck would represent a sensitive indicator species for H5N1 HPAI. Results also suggest that the potential for decreased transmission efficiency associated with reduced viral shedding (especially from the cloaca) and a loss of environmental fitness (in water), may be offset by the ability of this virus to be transmitted through a very low infectious dose.     

Genetic evidence of intercontinental movement of avian influenza in a migratory bird: the northern pintail (Anas acuta)

The role of migratory birds in the movement of the highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza H5N1 remains a subject of debate. Testing hypotheses regarding intercontinental movement of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses will help evaluate the potential that wild birds could carry Asian-origin strains of HP avian influenza to North America during migration. Previous North American assessments of LPAI genetic variation have found few Asian reassortment events. Here, we present results from whole-genome analyses of LPAI isolates collected in Alaska from the northern pintail (Anas acuta), a species that migrates between North America and Asia. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the genetic divergence between Asian and North American strains of LPAI, but also suggested inter-continental virus exchange and at a higher frequency than previously documented. In 38 isolates from Alaska, nearly half (44.7%) had at least one gene segment more closely related to Asian than to North American strains of LPAI. Additionally, sequences of several Asian LPAI isolates from GenBank clustered more closely with North American northern pintail isolates than with other Asian origin viruses. Our data support the role of wild birds in the intercontinental transfer of influenza viruses, and reveal a higher degree of transfer in Alaska than elsewhere in North America.     

Characterization of a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus isolated from an ostrich

The continued spread of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus among poultry and wild birds has posed a potential threat to human public health. An influenza pandemic happens, when a new subtype that has not previously circulated in humans emerges. Almost all of the influenza pandemics in history have originated from avian influenza viruses (AIV). Birds are significant reservoirs of influenza viruses. In the present study, we performed a survey of avian influenza virus in ostriches and H5N1 virus (A/Ostrich/SuZhou/097/03, China097) was isolated. This H5N1 virus is highly pathogenic to both chickens and mice. It is also able to replicate in the lungs of, and to cause death in, BALB/c mice following intranasal administration. It forms plaques in chicken embryo fibroblast (CEF) cells in the absence of trypsin. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the virus is genetically similar to A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96(H5N1) and belongs to clade 0. The HA sequence contains multiple basic amino acids adjacent to the cleavage site, a motif associated with HPAI viruses. More importantly, the existence of H5N1 isolates in ostriches highlights the potential threat of wild bird infections to veterinary and public health.     

Evidence of infection by H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in healthy wild waterfowl

The potential existence of a wild bird reservoir for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently questioned by the spread and the persisting circulation of H5N1 HPAI viruses, responsible for concurrent outbreaks in migratory and domestic birds over Asia, Europe, and Africa. During a large-scale surveillance programme over Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, we detected avian influenza viruses of H5N2 subtype with a highly pathogenic (HP) viral genotype in healthy birds of two wild waterfowl species sampled in Nigeria. We monitored the survival and regional movements of one of the infected birds through satellite telemetry, providing a rare evidence of a non-lethal natural infection by an HP viral genotype in wild birds. Phylogenetic analysis of the H5N2 viruses revealed close genetic relationships with H5 viruses of low pathogenicity circulating in Eurasian wild and domestic ducks. In addition, genetic analysis did not reveal known gallinaceous poultry adaptive mutations, suggesting that the emergence of HP strains could have taken place in either wild or domestic ducks or in non-gallinaceous species. The presence of coexisting but genetically distinguishable avian influenza viruses with an HP viral genotype in two cohabiting species of wild waterfowl, with evidence of non-lethal infection at least in one species and without evidence of prior extensive circulation of the virus in domestic poultry, suggest that some strains with a potential high pathogenicity for poultry could be maintained in a community of wild waterfowl.     

A High Diversity of Eurasian Lineage Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza A Viruses Circulate among Wild Birds Sampled in Egypt

Surveillance for influenza A viruses in wild birds has increased substantially as part of efforts to control the global movement of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus. Studies conducted in Egypt from 2003 to 2007 to monitor birds for H5N1 identified multiple subtypes of low pathogenicity avian influenza A viruses isolated primarily from migratory waterfowl collected in the Nile Delta. Phylogenetic analysis of 28 viral genomes was performed to estimate their nearest ancestors and identify possible reassortants. Migratory flyway patterns were included in the analysis to assess gene flow between overlapping flyways. Overall, the viruses were most closely related to Eurasian, African and/or Central Asian lineage low pathogenicity viruses and belonged to 15 different subtypes. A subset of the internal genes seemed to originate from specific flyways (Black Sea-Mediterranean, East African-West Asian). The remaining genes were derived from a mixture of viruses broadly distributed across as many as 4 different flyways suggesting the importance of the Nile Delta for virus dispersal. Molecular clock date estimates suggested that the time to the nearest common ancestor of all viruses analyzed ranged from 5 to 10 years, indicating frequent genetic exchange with viruses sampled elsewhere. The intersection of multiple migratory bird flyways and the resulting diversity of influenza virus gene lineages in the Nile Delta create conditions favoring reassortment, as evident from the gene constellations identified by this study. In conclusion, we present for the first time a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of full genome sequences from low pathogenic avian influenza viruses circulating in Egypt, underscoring the significance of the region for viral reassortment and the potential emergence of novel avian influenza A viruses, as well as representing a highly diverse influenza A virus gene pool that merits continued monitoring.     

Highly (H5N1) and low (H7N2) pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in falcons via nasochoanal route and ingestion of experimentally infected prey

An experimental infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses was carried out on falcons in order to examine the effects of these viruses in terms of pathogenesis, viral distribution in tissues and viral shedding. The distribution pattern of influenza virus receptors was also assessed. Captive-reared gyr-saker (Falco rusticolus x Falco cherrug) hybrid falcons were challenged with a HPAI H5N1 virus (A/Great crested grebe/Basque Country/06.03249/2006) or a LPAI H7N2 virus (A/Anas plathyrhynchos/Spain/1877/2009), both via the nasochoanal route and by ingestion of previously infected specific pathogen free chicks. Infected falcons exhibited similar infection dynamics despite the different routes of exposure, demonstrating the effectiveness of in vivo feeding route. H5N1 infected falcons died, or were euthanized, between 5-7 days post-infection (dpi) after showing acute severe neurological signs. Presence of viral antigen in several tissues was confirmed by immunohistochemistry and real time RT-PCR (RRT-PCR), which were generally associated with significant microscopical lesions, mostly in the brain. Neither clinical signs, nor histopathological findings were observed in any of the H7N2 LPAI infected falcons, although all of them had seroconverted by 11 dpi. Avian receptors were strongly present in the upper respiratory tract of the falcons, in accordance with the consistent oral viral shedding detected by RRT-PCR in both H5N1 HPAI and H7N2 LPAI infected falcons. The present study demonstrates that gyr-saker hybrid falcons are highly susceptible to H5N1 HPAI virus infection, as previously observed, and that they may play a major role in the spreading of both HPAI and LPAI viruses. For the first time in raptors, natural infection by feeding on infected prey was successfully reproduced. The use of avian prey species in falconry husbandry and wildlife rehabilitation facilities could put valuable birds of prey and humans at risk and, therefore, this practice should be closely monitored.     

Recent expansion of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: a critical review

Wild birds, particularly waterfowl, are a key element of the viral ecology of avian influenza. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1, was first detected in poultry in November 1996 in southeast China, where it originated. The virus subsequently dispersed throughout most of Asia, and also to Africa and Europe. Despite compelling evidence that the virus has been dispersed widely via human activities that include farming, and marketing of poultry, migratory birds have been widely considered to be the primary source of its global dispersal. Here we present a critical examination of the arguments both for and against the role of migratory birds in the global dispersal of HPAI H5N1. We conclude that, whilst wild birds undoubtedly contribute to the local spread of the virus in the wild, human commercial activities, particularly those associated with poultry, are the major factors that have determined its global dispersal.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America

Prior to the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD) H5N1 influenza A virus, the long-held and well-supported paradigm was that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks were restricted to poultry, the result of cross-species transmission of precursor viruses from wild aquatic birds that subsequently gained pathogenicity in domestic birds. Therefore, management agencies typically adopted a prevention, control, and eradication strategy that included strict biosecurity for domestic bird production, isolation of infected and exposed flocks, and prompt depopulation. In most cases, this strategy has proved sufficient for eradicating HPAI. Since 2002, this paradigm has been challenged with many detections of viral descendants of the Gs/GD lineage among wild birds, most of which have been associated with sporadic mortality events. Since the emergence and evolution of the genetically distinct clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in approximately 2010, there have been further increases in the occurrence of HPAI in wild birds and geographic spread through migratory bird movement. A prominent example is the introduction of clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD HPAI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds in autumn 2014 that ultimately led to the largest outbreak of HPAI in the history of the United States. Given the apparent maintenance of Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in a global avian reservoir; bidirectional virus exchange between wild and domestic birds facilitating the continued adaptation of Gs/GD HPAI viruses in wild bird hosts; the current frequency of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds globally, and particularly in Eurasia where Gs/GD HPAI viruses may now be enzootic; and ongoing dispersal of AI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds, HPAI now represents an emerging disease threat to North American wildlife. This recent paradigm shift implies that management of HPAI in domestic birds alone may no longer be sufficient to eradicate HPAI viruses from a given country or region. Rather, agencies managing wild birds and their habitats may consider the development or adoption of mitigation strategies to minimize introductions to poultry, to reduce negative impacts on wild bird populations, and to diminish adverse effects to stakeholders using wildlife resources. The main objective of this review is, therefore, to provide information that will assist wildlife managers in developing mitigation strategies or approaches for dealing with outbreaks of Gs/GD HPAI in wild birds in the form of preparedness, surveillance, research, communications, and targeted management actions. Resultant outbreak response plans and actions may represent meaningful steps of wildlife managers toward the use of collaborative and multi-jurisdictional One Health approaches when it comes to the detection, investigation, and mitigation of emerging viruses at the human-domestic animal-wildlife interface.     

Characterization of H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from wild and captive birds in the winter season of 2016–2017 in Northern Japan

On 15 November 2016, a black swan that had died in a zoo in Akita prefecture, northern Japan, was strongly suspected to have highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); an HPAI virus (HPAIV) belonging to the H5N6 subtype was isolated from specimens taken from the bird. After the initial report, 230 cases of HPAI caused by H5N6 viruses from wild birds, captive birds, and domestic poultry farms were reported throughout the country during the winter season. In the present study, 66 H5N6 HPAIVs isolated from northern Japan were further characterized. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin gene showed that the H5N6 viruses isolated in northern Japan clustered into Group C of Clade 2.3.4.4 together with other isolates collected in Japan, Korea and Taiwan during the winter season of 2016–2017. The antigenicity of the Japanese H5N6 isolate differed slightly from that of HPAIVs isolated previously in Japan and China. The virus exhibited high pathogenicity and a high replication capacity in chickens, whereas virus growth was slightly lower in ducks compared with that of an H5N8 HPAIV isolate collected in Japan in 2014. Comprehensive analyses of Japanese isolates, including those from central, western, and southern Japan, as well as rapid publication of this information are essential for facilitating greater control of HPAIVs.

     

Influenza in migratory birds and evidence of limited intercontinental virus exchange

Migratory waterfowl of the world are the natural reservoirs of influenza viruses of all known subtypes. However, it is unknown whether these waterfowl perpetuate highly pathogenic (HP) H5 and H7 avian influenza viruses. Here we report influenza virus surveillance from 2001 to 2006 in wild ducks in Alberta, Canada, and in shorebirds and gulls at Delaware Bay (New Jersey), United States, and examine the frequency of exchange of influenza viruses between the Eurasian and American virus clades, or superfamilies. Influenza viruses belonging to each of the subtypes H1 through H13 and N1 through N9 were detected in these waterfowl, but H14 and H15 were not found. Viruses of the HP Asian H5N1 subtypes were not detected, and serologic studies in adult mallard ducks provided no evidence of their circulation. The recently described H16 subtype of influenza viruses was detected in American shorebirds and gulls but not in ducks. We also found an unusual cluster of H7N3 influenza viruses in shorebirds and gulls that was able to replicate well in chickens and kill chicken embryos. Genetic analysis of 6,767 avian influenza gene segments and 248 complete avian influenza viruses supported the notion that the exchange of entire influenza viruses between the Eurasian and American clades does not occur frequently. Overall, the available evidence does not support the perpetuation of HP H5N1 influenza in migratory birds and suggests that the introduction of HP Asian H5N1 to the Americas by migratory birds is likely to be a rare event.     

Temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza A H5N1 virus outbreaks

Global influenza surveillance is one of the most effective strategies for containing outbreaks and preparing for a possible pandemic influenza. Since the end of 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) H5N1 have caused many outbreaks in poultries and wild birds from East Asia and have spread to at least 48 countries. For such a fast and wide-spreading virulent pathogen, prediction based on changes of micro- and macro-environment has rarely been evaluated. In this study, we are developing a new climatic approach by investigating the conditions that occurred before the H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks for early predicting future HPAI outbreaks and preventing pandemic disasters. The results show a temperature drop shortly before these outbreaks in birds in each of the Eurasian regions stricken in 2005 and 2006. Dust storms, like those that struck near China's Lake Qinghai around May 4, 2005, exacerbated the spread of this HPAI H5N1 virus, causing the deaths of a record number of wild birds and triggering the subsequent spread of H5N1. Weather monitoring could play an important role in the early warning of outbreaks of this potentially dangerous virus.