Are all distributions of risk with the same 95thpercentile equally acceptable?

When evaluating a probabilistic health risk assessment, say at a hazardous waste site, risk managers need a risk management policy that distinguishes an acceptable distribution of risks to individuals in a population from an unacceptable one. If a risk manager decides that the distribution of risk for the status quo is unacceptable, then a risk assessor needs a way to compute cleanup targets, i.e., the risk assessor needs a policy statement against which to estimate distributions of exposure point concentrations which, if engineered at a site, will achieve an acceptable distribution of risk. Some regulatory agencies base acceptability on whether the 95^th percentile of the risk distribution falls at or below a given value, without considering the behavior of the rest of the distribution. As regulatory agencies adopt risk management policies for use with probabilistic risk assessments, we recommend that they base their new policies on two simultaneously binding constraints‐one on an upper percentile and one on the arithmetic mean of the distribution of risk‐in addition to other non‐risk criteria.     

Health risk perception in Canada II: Worldviews,attitudes and opinions

In this article, we present the results of a national survey of 1500 Canadians on their attitudes and opinions about health risks. Ratings of perceived risk, sources of information on health risks and responsibility for risk management were also investigated, with findings reported separately. A high degree of concern about health risks was associated with industrial pollution and chemical products (with the exception of medicines), with almost complete agreement that the land, air and water are more contaminated than ever. In addition, there was widespread belief that a risk‐free environment was an achievable goal, and an unwillingness to accept some health risks to improve the economy. Lifestyle factors such as diet, exercise, and tobacco smoking were perceived to be important modifiers of health risk. On the other hand, many respondents endorsed the idea that they had little control over the risks to their health.     

Assessing environmental risks of transgenic plants

By the end of the 1980s, a broad consensus had developed that there were potential environmental risks of transgenic plants requiring assessment and that this assessment must be done on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the transgene, recipient organism, intended environment of release, and the frequency and scale of the intended introduction. Since 1990, there have been gradual but substantial changes in the environmental risk assessment process. In this review, we focus on changes in the assessment of risks associated with non-target species and biodiversity, gene flow, and the evolution of resistance. Non-target risk assessment now focuses on risks of transgenic plants to the intended local environment of release. Measurements of gene flow indicate that it occurs at higher rates than believed in the early 1990s, mathematical theory is beginning to clarify expectations of risks associated with gene flow, and management methods are being developed to reduce gene flow and possibly mitigate its effects. Insect pest resistance risks are now managed using a high-dose/refuge or a refuge-only strategy, and the present research focuses on monitoring for resistance and encouraging compliance to requirements. We synthesize previous models for tiering risk assessment and propose a general model for tiering. Future transgenic crops are likely to pose greater challenges for risk assessment, and meeting these challenges will be crucial in developing a scientifically coherent risk assessment framework. Scientific understanding of the factors affecting environmental risk is still nascent, and environmental scientists need to help improve environmental risk assessment.     

合成生物学生物安全风险评价与管理

合成生物学(synthetic biology)已迅速发展为生命科学最具发展潜力的分支学科之一,但它同时也会给生态环境和人类健康带来潜在的风险。结合国内外合成生物学发展现状,本文综述了基因回路(DNA-based biocircuits)、最小基因组(minimal genome)、原型细胞(protocells)、化学合成生物学(chemical synthetic biology)等涉及的风险评价、合成生物学与生物安全工程(biosafety engineering)、合成生物学对社会伦理道德法律的影响以及当前热点议题,如生物朋(黑)客(biopunk(or biohackery))、家置生物学(garage biology)、DIY生物学(do-it-yourselfbiology)、生物恐怖主义(bioterrorism)等方面的新进展。分析讨论了世界各国合成生物学以自律监管或技术为主的安全管理原则和基于5个不同政策干预点的5P管理策略的合理性与潜在不足。同时结合我国合成生物学当前研究进展以及现有的安全管理规范,提出了建立以安全评价为核心的法规体系、生物学生物安全规范以及加强研发单位内部管理和生物安全科普宣传等我国合成生物学安全管理制度与措施等建议。     

The challenge of determining the need for remediation following a wide-area biological release

Recovering from a biological attack is a complex process requiring the successful resolution of numerous challenges. The Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration program is one of the first multiagency efforts to develop strategies and tools that could be effective following a wide-area release of B. anthracis spores. Nevertheless, several key policy issues and associated science and technology issues still need to be addressed. For example, more refined risk assessment and management approaches are needed to help evaluate "true" public health risk. Once the risk is understood, that information can be considered along with the types of characterization activities deemed necessary to determine whether the cost and time of decontamination are actually warranted. This commentary offers 5 recommendations associated with decision making regarding decontamination and clearance options that should accompany a comprehensive risk analysis leading to more effective risk management decisions. It summarizes some of the most important technological gaps that still need to be addressed to help decision makers in their objective of reducing health risks to an acceptable level. The risk management approach described should enable decision makers to improve credibility and gain public acceptance, especially when an adequate science and technology base is available to support the required decisions.     

Health Risk Assessment of Workers' Exposure to Organic Compounds in a Tire Factory

This study focuses on a health risk assessment related to chemical exposure via inhalation for workers in a tire factory. Specifically, several volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) were measured in the four different points of the vulcanization unit. A chemical transport model was developed in order to better represent the workers' exposure to the chemicals. Then, a risk assessment methodology was employed to evaluate the potential adverse health effects of the chemicals according to their carcinogenicities. Concentrations measured near the milling machine and press in the vulcanization unit were generally higher than the respective occupational exposure limit values. The corresponding estimated cumulative cancer risks for the carcinogens at the each sampling point were higher than the designated acceptable risk level of 1 × 10^{? 4}. With respect to non-carcinogenic risks, the hazard indexes, both individually and cumulatively, were lower than the specified level of one. The high cancer risk estimated in this study suggests that the VOCs and SVOCs exposure for workers in the vulcanization unit should not be neglected. The results obtained in this study are valuable to plant managers, government officials, and regulators in the risk evaluation process.     

A review of chemical control options for invasive social insects in island ecosystems

Social insects present unique challenges to chemically based management strategies, especially because fast‐acting compounds commonly applied for many pest insects may not be the most effective for colony elimination. The reproductive caste of a colony is the most protected from direct damage by insecticides, and compounds that cause rapid mortality among foragers frequently do not impact the reproductive members or even markedly reduce overall colony size. With recent bans on persistent insecticides that previously have been used to control social insects, especially termites, new compounds must be used. Island and coastal ecosystems are particularly sensitive to the effects of widespread pesticide use and concerns about unintentional water pollution and runoff are common, and international attention is being paid to developing sustainable pesticide options for agricultural and urban pest insects in particularly sensitive environments. Given the precarious status of many native insects and arthropods care must be taken to minimize exposure to potentially harmful insecticides and the non‐target impacts of these chemicals. However, recent developments in the synthesis and discovery of highly selective insecticides with low mammalian and non‐target toxicity provide viable alternatives to the broad‐spectrum persistent organochlorine insecticides that have been largely deregistered. Novel technologies, particularly synthetic analogues of biologically active compounds, yield new chemical control options and management strategies for island and other sensitive ecosystems; case studies from Australia, the Galapagos Islands and New Zealand highlight current challenges and successes.     

Human health‐based soil cleanup guidelines for diesel fuel no. 2

Soil cleanup guidelines were developed for diesel fuel No. 2 that are protective of human health. Guidelines were conservatively based on a residential land use scenario. This scenario estimates human health risks associated with long‐term exposure to site soil via the inhalation, dermal, and ingestion routes of exposure. Lifetime dermal cancer studies were selected as the basis for deriving a safe level of diesel fuel in soil. Soil cleanup guidelines for diesel fuel No. 2 ranged from 1166 to 11,287 mg/kg for adult or child residents and represent contaminant levels that pose acceptable health risks for both present and proposed future uses of a site.     

Which practices co‐deliver food security,climate change mitigation and adaptation,and combat land degradation and desertification?

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO₂eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing‐up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.     

Assessment of Human Health Risk for an Area Impacted by a Large-Scale Metallurgical Refinery Complex in Hunan,China

Due to accelerated urbanization and reform of industrial structure in China, polluting industries in major cities have been closed or relocated. Consequently, large numbers of industrial sites were generated and the contaminated soils on and around these sites may pose risks to humans. This case study presents an estimation of human health risks for an area that is mainly impacted through air dispersion and deposition from a large-scale metallurgical refinery complex in Zhuzhou city, Hunan Province, China. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks posed by the contaminants were estimated under future industrial and residential land use scenarios. The result shows that adverse health effects may occur primarily through ingestion of soils contaminated with As, Cd, and Pb. The total carcinogenic risks of multiple contaminants for a large area exceed the acceptable risk level of 1 × 10^?5, and several localized hotspots, where the total hazard index exceeds 1 were identified. Soils in the Tongda site pose the highest carcinogenic risks and non-carcinogenic hazards. It is concluded that potential human health risks exist under the proposed redevelopment scenarios, and development of risk-based remediation strategies is recommended.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of Radiological Exposure to Depleted Uranium in Soils at a Weapons Testing Facility

The potential for unacceptable risks to biota from radiological exposure to depleted uranium (DU) in soils was evaluated at two sites where DU weapons testing had been conducted in the past. A screening risk assessment was conducted to determine if measured concentrations of DU-associated radionuclides in site soils exceed radionuclide levels considered protective of biota. While concentrations of individual radionuclides did not exceed acceptable levels, total radionuclide concentrations could result in potentially unacceptable doses to exposed biota. Thus, a receptor-specific assessment was conducted to estimate external and internal radiological doses to vegetation and wildlife known or expected to occur at the sites. Wildlife evaluated included herbivores, omnivores, and top-level predators. Internal dose estimates to wildlife considered exposure via fugitive dust inhalation and soil and food ingestion; root uptake was the primary exposure route evaluated for vegetation. Total doses were compared with acceptable dose levels of 1.0 and 0.1 rad/day for vegetation and wildlife, respectively, with potentially unacceptable risks indicated for doses exceeding these levels. All estimated doses were below or approximated acceptable levels, typically by an order of magnitude or more. These results indicate that current levels of DU in soils do not pose unacceptable radiological risks to biota at the sites evaluated.     

Applying USEPA Risk Assessment Guidance in the 90s

Over the past decade, risk assessment has become increasingly relied upon for helping to make environmental management decisions. This trend has been accompanied by research and refinements in basic risk assessment methodologies to improve our ability to understand and evaluate the human health risks associated with chemical exposures.Despite this progress, significant uncertainties continue to be associated with the risk assessment process. These uncertainties typically derive from gaps in available data regarding chemical toxicity, and from difficulties in reliably estimating the magnitude of chemical exposures. Given these limitations, risk assessment is generally most valuable in evaluating relative risk; for example, when comparing alternatives to achieving a specified goal, setting priorities for protecting human health, or establishing procedures for properly allocating resources. Risk assessment can also be useful for developing regulatory benchmarks such as permit limits for air or water. In many cases, however, the limitations of the risk assessment process make it difficult (if not impossible) to reliably estimate an absolute level of risk, especially for a specific individual in an exposed population. In such cases, risk assessment can be seriously misapplied, and its results misinterpreted.This paper discusses some of the challenges that have been faced by the field of risk assessment during the 1990s. Current trends in risk assessment, and its use by regulatory agencies in making risk management decisions, are also described.     

城市综合生态风险评价——以淮北市城区为例

城市面临复杂的生态风险,为了保障城市安全,需要对单一灾害或污染源的生态风险评估结果进行整合。基于城市复合生态系统特性,将当前城市地域常见的生态风险区分为自然灾害、环境污染及生态退化等3种主要类型,以土地利用单元作为风险受体,整合自然、人文、景观及环境因子,在现有生态风险评价研究方法基础上,构建了城市综合生态风险评价的空间分析框架。研究中选择淮北市城区作为研究区,针对研究区内存在的洪涝、干旱、水污染、大气污染、采煤塌陷及生态服务降低等生态风险类型,定量评价其空间差异,并提出相应的风险防范措施。案例分析结果表明,研究区综合生态风险较高的区域包括龙河、岱河、龙岱河与闸河等过境河流流经塌陷密集带的河段,北湖、东湖、中湖及南湖等人工湖泊沿岸,化家湖湖岸,及土型、新蔡、北杨新杨煤矿及其外围地区。由降低生态风险保障城市生态安全角度,在未来城市的整体规划中,建议结合城市外围绿地与城市内部的高风险区域,划设禁建或限建区域,共同构建淮北城市生态风险防范的空间结构。     

A risk‐based inventory of invasive plant species of Queensland,Australia: Regional,ecological and floristic insights

Invasive alien plant species threaten agriculture and biodiversity globally and require ongoing management to minimise impacts. However, the large number of invasive species means that a risk‐based approach to prioritisation is needed, taking into account the spatial scale of management decisions and myriad of available information. Here, we developed a risk‐based inventory of invasive plants in Queensland, Australia, using both current species distribution/abundance and the severity of their impacts. Our assessment followed a comprehensive data collection process including a scoping of local government pest management plans, herbarium records, the published literature and structured elicitation of expert knowledge during a series of regional stakeholder workshops. From ~300 plant species that were identified as established and/or emerging invaders in the State, only one‐third were considered by practitioners to pose significant risks across regions to be considered management priorities. We aggregated regional species lists into a statewide priority list and analysed the data set (107 species) for historical, geographical, floristic and ecological patterns. Regions on the mainland eastern seaboard of the State share similar invasive plant communities, suggesting that these regions may form a single management unit, unlike the western/inland and the extreme far north (Torres Strait Islands) regions, which share fewer invasive plant species. Positive correlations were detected between invasiveness and time since introduction for some but not all plant life forms. Stakeholders identified research and management priorities for the invasive plant list, including biological control options, public awareness/education, effective herbicide use, ecology/taxonomy and risk analysis. In the course of the exercise, a statewide invasive plant priority list of high‐, medium‐ and low‐impact scores for policy, research and management was compiled. Finally, our approach to invasive plant species prioritisation highlighted that planning and policy documents are not necessarily reflected at the grass‐root level in terms of species identity and management priorities.     

Consideration of Background Radiation in Ecological Risk Assessments

Background or ambient concentrations are often considered in the evaluation of potential risks to ecological receptors from exposure to hazardous chemicals in the environment. Such an evaluation may be a component of the screening or final risk management process and sets the baseline from which risks contributed by site-related activities can be addressed. Although the process for the evaluation of potential radiological risks to ecological receptors is less formalized than the chemical hazard assessment process, background remains an issue that should be addressed when considering potential site-related impacts. This paper briefly presents the ecological risk assessment approaches used to address background radionuclide concentrations at three United States Department of Defense Facilities. The concepts of total radiation dose, and tolerance and adaptation of populations to radiation are also discussed within the context of background radiation.     

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Produced Water

The produced water extracted during oil and gas production includes formation water, injected water, small volumes of condensed water, and any chemical added during the oil/water separation process. Produced water contains both organic and inorganic constituents, and several studies have been conducted in the past to assess their risk. The toxicity and persistence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in produced water is of particular environmental concern, but there are very few studies on human health risk assessment from PAHs of produced water. This article summarizes the results of a conservative human health risk assessment approach for PAHs in produced water discharges to the marine environment. Due to the absence of available toxicity data for PAHs, the cancer slope factors were determined by using the relative potency factors (RPF) and Toxicity Equivalency Factors (TEF). Using the concentration distribution factors, the maximum cancer risks to humans were predicted in the range of 4.07 × 10^?7 to 2.95 × 10^?6. The 95th-percentile values show that the risks are well within the acceptable limits.     

Variance in Bacillus anthracis virulence assessed through Bayesian hierarchical dose-response modelling

Aims: To develop a predictive dose–response model for describing the survival of animals exposed to Bacillus anthracis to support risk management options. Methods and Results: Dose–response curves were generated from a large dose–mortality data set (>11 000 data points) consisting of guinea pigs exposed via the inhalation route to 76 different product preparations of B. anthracis. Because of the predictive nature of the Bayesian hierarchical approach (BHA), this method was used. The utility of this method in planning for a variety of scenarios from best case to worst case was demonstrated. Conclusions: A wide range of expected virulence was observed across products. Median estimates of virulence match well with previously published statistical estimates, but upper bound values of virulence are much greater than previous statistical estimates. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is the first meta‐analysis in open literature to estimate the dose–response relationship for B. anthracis from a very large data set, generally a rare occurrence for highly infectious pathogens. The results are also the first to suggest the extent of variability, which is contributed by product preparation and/or dissemination methods, information needed for health‐based risk management decisions in response to a deliberate release. A set of possible benchmark values produced through this analysis can be tied to the risk tolerance of the decision‐maker or available intelligence. Further, the substantial size of the data set led to the ability to assess the appropriateness of the assumed distributional form of the prior, a common limitation in Bayesian analysis.     

The mutagenic hazards of settled house dust: a review

Given the large proportion of time people spend indoors, the potential health risks posed by chemical contaminants in the indoor environment are of concern. Research suggests that settled house dust (SHD) may be a significant source for indoor exposure to hazardous substances including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Here, we summarize the literature on the mutagenic hazards of SHD and the presence of PAHs in dust. We assess the extent to which PAHs are estimated to contribute to the mutagenicity of SHD, and evaluate the carcinogenic risks associated with exposures to PAHs in SHD. Research demonstrates that SHD has a Salmonella TA98 mutagenic potency of 1000-7000 revertants/g, and contains between 0.5 and 500 microg/g of PAHs. Although they only account for a small proportion of the variability, analyses of pooled datasets suggest that cigarette smoking and an urban location contribute to higher levels of PAHs. Despite their presence, our calculations show that PAHs likely account for less than 25% of the overall mutagenic potency of dust. Nevertheless, carcinogenic PAHs in dust can pose potential health risks, particularly for children who play and crawl on dusty floors, and exhibit hand-to-mouth behaviour. Risk assessment calculations performed in this study reveal that the excess cancer risks from non-dietary ingestion of carcinogenic PAHs in SHD by preschool aged children is generally in the range of what is considered acceptable (1 x 10(-6) to 2 x 10(-6)). Substantially elevated risk estimates in the range 1.5 x 10(-4) to 2.5 x 10(-4) correspond only to situations where the PAH content is at or beyond the 95th percentile, and the risk estimates are adjusted for enhanced susceptibility at early life stages. Analyses of SHD and its contaminants provide an indication of indoor pollution and present important information for human exposure assessments.     

Assessing Children's Exposures and Risks to Drinking Water Contaminants: A Manganese Case Study

Background: Compared to adults, children maybe more highly exposed to toxic substances in drinking water because they consume more water per unit of body weight. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has developed new guidance for selecting age groups and age-specific exposure factors for assessing children's exposures and risks to environmental contaminants. Research Aim: To demonstrate the application and importance of applying age-specific drinking water intake rates, health reference values, and exposure scenarios when assessing drinking water exposures because these approaches illustrate the potential for greater potential for adverse health effects among children. Methods: manganese, an essential nutrient and neurotoxicant, was selected as a case study and chemical of potential concern for children's health. A screening-level risk assessment was performed using age-specific drinking water intake rates and manganese concentrations from U.S. public drinking water systems. Results: When age-specific drinking water intake rates are used to calculate dose, formula-fed infants receive the highest dose of manganese from drinking water compared to all other age groups. Estimated hazard quotients suggest adverse health effects are possible. Use of USEPA's standardized childhood age groups and childhood exposure factors significantly improves the understanding of childhood exposure and risks.     

A Food Scare a Day: Why Aren't We Better at Managing Dietary Risk?

Does the existence of food scares mean that we are bad at risk management? Not necessarily. New information brings new risks to the forefront or puts known risks into a new perspective. But in some cases food scares do indicate poor risk management. There are two key problems that explain why we are not better at managing dietary risks. The first is an imbalance of effort among the three components of risk analysis: we have Hummer risk assessment, Yugo risk management, and tricycle risk communication. The second problem is inadequate risk management. The cases of risks from mad cow disease and dioxins illustrate how the quality of risk management is affected by what we do not know well enough, what we know too well, and what we have not tried to find out. Better risk management requires a two-tier approach: (1) generate broad and shallow information on risks, health outcomes, incentives, options, benefits, and costs (Toyota Prius Hybrid risk management to be used everyday) and (2) generate narrow and in-depth information on high priority risks (Hummer risk assessment to be used sparingly).