Null models of geographic range size evolution reaffirm its heritability

Most models of allopatric speciation predict that the two daughter species will have range sizes different from each other's and potentially from that of their common ancestor. However, I find that this difference is less than that expected under a variety of null models of range evolution. Sister species' range values may therefore become more similar in the time following speciation. Greater-than-expected similarity (symmetry) has also been treated as a form of range size heritability. I therefore compare the results of this symmetry approach to a test for phylogenetic signal, using the range sizes of North American birds. I find that range size is heritable under both tests. I suggest that null models for range size heritability should be informed by an explicit model of evolution. Comparative methods may give erroneous results if they fail to take the unusual form of inheritance of range size into account.     

Speciation and extinction drive the appearance of directional range size evolution in phylogenies and the fossil record

While the geographic range of a species is a fundamental unit of macroecology and a leading predictor of extinction risk, the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges remain poorly understood. Based on statistical associations between range size and species age, many studies have claimed support for general models of range evolution in which the area occupied by a species varies predictably over the course of its life. Such claims have been made using both paleontological data and molecular estimates of the age of extant species. However, using a stochastic model, we show that the appearance of trends in range size with species' age can arise even when range sizes have evolved at random through time. This occurs because the samples of species used in existing studies are likely to be biased with respect to range size: for example, only those species that happened to have large or expanding ranges are likely to survive to the present, while extinct species will tend to be those whose ranges, by chance, declined through time. We compared the relationship between the age and range size of species arising under our stochastic model to those observed across 1,269 species of extant birds and mammals and 140 species of extinct Cenozoic marine mollusks. We find that the stochastic model is able to generate the full spectrum of empirical age-area relationships, implying that such trends cannot be simply interpreted as evidence for models of directional range size evolution. Our results therefore challenge the theory that species undergo predictable phases of geographic expansion and contraction through time.     

ARE RANGE‐SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS CONSISTENT WITH SPECIES‐LEVEL HERITABILITY?

The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output of three different models to the range-size distribution of the South American avifauna. Although there were differences among the models, a moderate-to-high degree of range-size heritability consistently leads to SRDs that were similar to empirical data. These results suggest that range-size heritability can generate realistic SRDs, and may play an important role in shaping observed patterns of range sizes.     

On the heritability of geographic range sizes

Within taxonomic groups, most species are restricted in their geographic range sizes, with only a few being widespread. The possibility that species-level selection on range sizes contributes to the characteristic form of such species-range size distributions has previously been raised. This would require that closely related species have similar range sizes, an indication of "heritability" of range sizes at the species level. Support for this view came from a positive correlation between the range sizes of closely related pairs of fossil mollusc species. We extend this analysis by considering the relationship between the geographic range sizes of 103 pairs of contemporary avian sister species. Range sizes in these sister species show no evidence of being more similar to each other than expected by chance. A reassessment of the mollusc data also suggests that the high correlation was probably overestimated because of the skewed nature of range size data. The fact that sister species tend to have similar life histories and ecologies suggests that any relationship between range sizes and biology is likely to be complicated and will be influenced by historical factors, such as mode of speciation and postspeciation range size transformations.     

Range size in mid-domain models of species diversity

Geographical patterns of species diversity have been examined using mid-domain null models, in which the ranges of individual species are simulated by randomly arranging them on a bounded one- or two-dimensional continent. These models have shown that structured patterns in the geographical distribution of biodiversity can arise even under a fully stochastic procedure. In particular, mid-domain models have demonstrated that the random generation of ranges of different sizes and locations can produce a gradient of species diversity similar to the one found in real assemblages, with a peak at the middle of a continent. A less explored feature of mid-domain models is the pattern of range-size frequency distribution. Numerical simulations have provided some insights about the geographic pattern of average range size, but no exploration of the shape of range-size frequency distributions has been carried out. Here I present analytical and numerical models that generate explicit predictions for patterns of range size under the assumptions of mid-domain models of species diversity. Some generalizations include: (1) Mid-domain models predict no geographic gradient of average range size; the mean range size of species occurring at any point on a continent is constant (0.5 of the extent of the continent in the one-dimensional model, 0.25 of the area of the continent in the two-dimensional case); (2) Variance in range size is lowest at the middle of a continent and highest near the corners of a square-shaped continent; (3) The range-size frequency distribution is highly right-skewed at any point of a continent, but the skewness is highest near the corners. Despite their alleged weaknesses, mid-domain models are adequate null models against which real-world patterns can be contrasted.     

Age, area and avian diversification

Using coarse resolution data on the spatial distribution of the entire New World avifauna, we test for phylogenclic patterns in the mean and total geographic range sizes of taxa. The analyses reveal that (i) the species-range size distribution is only approximately normalized, and remains significantly left-skewed, under logarithmic transformation. Most variance in range sizes is explained at the level of species within genera; (ii) there is no effect of the age of taxa on mean clade range size, although older taxa are more likely to have larger total range sizes; (iii) there is some evidence that taxa comprising more species have larger total range sizes; (iv) there is little or no evidence for a relationship between rate of cladogenesis and range size. The results suggest that geographic range size is a labile trait, at least for New World birds, and that the influence of evolutionary history is only weakly detectable in the range size variation of extant taxa, at least at the scale of analysis used here. In addition to these conclusions, two general and important procedural issues emerge.     

History and diversity: explorations at the intersection of ecology and evolution

Phylogenetic analysis provides an important tool for assessing the influence of historical and evolutionary processes on the structure of contemporary ecological systems. Patterns of diversity, for example, represent the regional buildup of species through immigration and diversification, their loss through extinction, and the sorting of species ecologically within the region. Colonization-extinction dynamics on islands can be inferred from lineage accumulation through time. Lineage branching within clades can be used to estimate rates of speciation and extinction. However, simulations of these processes show potential ambiguities in the interpretation of data. Clade size is unrelated to age in many studies, suggesting that speciation and extinction might be in long-term equilibrium and raising questions about unobserved past diversity. Among passerine birds and other groups, the size of similar-aged clades is positively related to the size of the region within which they have diversified, and it is greater in tropical than in temperate regions. There is no consensus on the causes of these patterns. Finally, the ecological interactions between populations within regions brings the timescale of species sorting and species production close to each other and emphasizes the important interaction of ecological and evolutionary processes in shaping ecological systems.     

The tropics: cradle,museum or casino? A dynamic null model for latitudinal gradients of species diversity

Several ecological and evolutionary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), but a general model for this conspicuous pattern remains elusive. Mid-domain effect (MDE) models generate gradients of species diversity by randomly placing the geographic ranges of species in one- or two-dimensional spaces, thus excluding both evolutionary processes and the effect of contemporary climate. Traditional MDE models are statistical and static because they determine the size of ranges either randomly or based on empirical frequency distributions. Here we present a simple dynamic null model for the LDG that simulates stochastic processes of range shifts, extinction and speciation. The model predicts higher species diversity and higher extinction and speciation rates in the tropics, and a strong influence of range movements in shaping the LDG. These null expectations should be taken into consideration in studies aimed at understanding the many factors that generate latitudinal diversity gradients.     

Population genetics and the evolution of geographic range limits in an annual plant

Abstract Theoretical models of species' geographic range limits have identified both demographic and evolutionary mechanisms that prevent range expansion. Stable range limits have been paradoxical for evolutionary biologists because they represent locations where populations chronically fail to respond to selection. Distinguishing among the proposed causes of species' range limits requires insight into both current and historical population dynamics. The tools of molecular population genetics provide a window into the stability of range limits, historical demography, and rates of gene flow. Here we evaluate alternative range limit models using a multilocus data set based on DNA sequences and microsatellites along with field demographic data from the annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Our data suggest that central and peripheral populations have very large historical and current effective population sizes and that there is little evidence for population size changes or bottlenecks associated with colonization in peripheral populations. Whereas range limit populations appear to have been stable, central populations exhibit a signature of population expansion and have contributed asymmetrically to the genetic diversity of peripheral populations via migration. Overall, our results discount strictly demographic models of range limits and more strongly support evolutionary genetic models of range limits, where adaptation is prevented by a lack of genetic variation or maladaptive gene flow.     

THE MICRO AND MACRO IN BODY SIZE EVOLUTION

The diversity of body sizes of organisms has traditionally been explained in terms of microevolutionary processes: natural selection owing to differential fitness of individual organisms, or to macroevolutionary processes: species selection owing to the differential proliferation of phylogenetic lineages. Data for terrestrial mammals and birds indicate that even on a logarithmic scale frequency distributions of body mass among species are significantly skewed towards larger sizes. We used simulation models to evaluate the extent to which macro- and microevolutionary processes are sufficient to explain these distributions. Simulations of a purely cladogenetic process with no bias in extinction or speciation rates for different body sizes did not produce skewed log body mass distributions. Simulations that included size-biased extinction rates, especially those that incorporated anagenetic size change within species between speciation and extinction events, regularly produced skewed distributions. We conclude that although cladogenetic processes probably play a significant role in body size evolution, there must also be a significant anagenetic component. The regular variation in the form of mammalian body size distributions among different-sized islands and continents suggests that environmental conditions, operating through both macro- and microevolutionary processes, determine to a large extent the diversification of body sizes within faunas. Macroevolution is not decoupled from microevolution.     

Interspecific abundance-range size relationships: range position and phylogeny

A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the widely observed positive interspecific relationship between local abundance and extent of geographic distribution in animals Here, we use data on British birds to assess two of these hypotheses that the relationship results from the relative position of a study area with respect to the geographic ranges of the species which occur there, and that the relationship results from a simple difference between taxonomic groups, rather than any general tendency for more abundant species to have larger range sizes We find support for neither hypothesis Phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses reveal that the positive abundance-range size relationship is consistently found within taxa, even when abundance and range size are calculated at a variety of spatial and temporal scales Analyses both across species and within taxa show that bird species for which Britain is near to the centre of their distribution in Europe tend to have larger British range sizes and higher abundances than do species where Britain is close to the edge of their range in Europe However, these relationships do not cause that between abundance and range size, because this latter relationship persists within different range position categories Whether a species is near the centre or edge of its geographic range in Britain may affect its position on the abundance-range size relationship, but does not produce the relationship Range position in Britain does, however, seem to be related to the magnitude of temporal changes in the range sizes of British birds There is some evidence to suggest that species for which Britain is nearer to their European range centre have shown smaller changes in distribution over the period 1970–1990 than have species for which Britain is close to their European range edge     

Interspecific geographic range size–body size relationship and the diversification dynamics of Neotropical furnariid birds

Among the earliest macroecological patterns documented, is the range and body size relationship, characterized by a minimum geographic range size imposed by the species’ body size. This boundary for the geographic range size increases linearly with body size and has been proposed to have implications in lineages evolution and conservation. Nevertheless, the macroevolutionary processes involved in the origin of this boundary and its consequences on lineage diversification have been poorly explored. We evaluate the macroevolutionary consequences of the difference (hereafter the distance) between the observed and the minimum range sizes required by the species’ body size, to untangle its role on the diversification of a Neotropical species‐rich bird clade using trait‐dependent diversification models. We show that speciation rate is a positive hump‐shaped function of the distance to the lower boundary. The species with highest and lowest distances to minimum range size had lower speciation rates, while species close to medium distances values had the highest speciation rates. Further, our results suggest that the distance to the minimum range size is a macroevolutionary constraint that affects the diversification process responsible for the origin of this macroecological pattern in a more complex way than previously envisioned.     

Differential rates of morphological divergence in birds

There are more small-bodied bird species than there are large-bodied, even on a logarithmic scale. In birds this pattern, which is also found in other higher taxa, appears not to be due to neutral evolution. It has often been suggested that the skew of body size frequency distributions is the result of a relationship between body size and the net rate of speciation, but phylogenetic analyses so far have rejected the hypothesis that small-bodied species are subject to higher net rates of speciation. On the contrary, we show that there exists a relationship between body size and its own evolutionary variability: avian families of small body size show less interspecific variation in body size than large-bodied families of similar age and species richness.     

Abundance-range size relationships of breeding and wintering birds in Britain: a comparative analysis

Both breeding and wintering assemblages of birds in Britain exhibit positive interspecific relationships between population size and geographic range size, such that the average density of species is greater if they are more widely distributed Species in common to both assemblages, that is resident species, had greater population sizes, geographic range sizes, and densities in winter In contrast, whilst winter migrants had higher abundances than summer migrants, the range sizes of the former were disproportionately larger still, resulting in a lower density for species that only winter in Britain than for those that only breed Such differences aside, the overall form of the abundance-range size relationship is remarkably similar between the two assemblages and their constituent subsets of species     

Global patterns of geographic range size in birds

Large-scale patterns of spatial variation in species geographic range size are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. However, the global nature of these patterns has remained contentious, since previous studies have been geographically restricted and/or based on small taxonomic groups. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we report the first (to our knowledge) global maps of variation in species range sizes for an entire taxonomic class. We show that range area does not follow a simple latitudinal pattern. Instead, the smallest range areas are attained on islands, in mountainous areas, and largely in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, bird species richness peaks around the equator, and towards higher latitudes. Despite these profoundly different latitudinal patterns, spatially explicit models reveal a weak tendency for areas with high species richness to house species with significantly smaller median range area. Taken together, these results show that for birds many spatial patterns in range size described in geographically restricted analyses do not reflect global rules. It remains to be discovered whether global patterns in geographic range size are best interpreted in terms of geographical variation in species assemblage packing, or in the rates of speciation, extinction, and dispersal that ultimately underlie biodiversity.     

Minimal effects of latitude on present-day speciation rates in New World birds

The tropics contain far greater numbers of species than temperate regions, suggesting that rates of species formation might differ systematically between tropical and non-tropical areas. We tested this hypothesis by reconstructing the history of speciation in New World (NW) land birds using BAMM, a Bayesian framework for modelling complex evolutionary dynamics on phylogenetic trees. We estimated marginal distributions of present-day speciation rates for each of 2571 species of birds. The present-day rate of speciation varies approximately 30-fold across NW birds, but there is no difference in the rate distributions for tropical and temperate taxa. Using macroevolutionary cohort analysis, we demonstrate that clades with high tropical membership do not produce species more rapidly than temperate clades. For nearly any value of present-day speciation rate, there are far more species in the tropics than the temperate zone. Any effects of latitude on speciation rate are marginal in comparison to the dramatic variation in rates among clades.     

Species richness and endemism of plant and bird communities along two gradients of elevation, humidity and land use in the Bolivian Andes

Abstract.  We studied the patterns of species richness and range–size rarity (as a measure of endemism) of two plant groups (Pteridophyta, Bromeliaceae) and birds along two gradients of elevation, humidity and human land use in a forested Andean valley. Both transects covered the transition from an arid valley bottom through a cloud forest zone to relictual high-elevation Polylepis forest, but transects differed in overall precipitation. Plants were surveyed in 88 plots of 400 m² each, while birds were detected primarily through visual observations and tape recordings over areas of 0.3–1.5 km². Global range sizes of all species were mapped on 1°-grids and range-size rarity was calculated as the mean inverse range size of all species recorded in elevational steps of 200 m. Patterns of species richness and range–size rarity were mainly unrelated between and within study groups. Monotonic increases and decreases and hump-shaped patterns were observed for species richness as well as range–size rarity. Several of these patterns can be interpreted in the light of the ecological requirements of each taxonomic group, e.g. dependence of fern species richness on humidity or of bird richness on habitat complexity. Species richness of ferns and birds peaked at higher elevations along the less rainy transect, possibly as a result of higher levels of solar radiation and ecosystem productivity. Patterns of species richness and endemism of the study groups are causally unrelated and cannot be used to predict those of other groups at the spatial scale of this study. Human impact was highest in areas of mostly low to intermediate species richness, but was often high in zones of high endemism.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

Inferring the Dynamics of Diversification: A Coalescent Approach

Recent analyses of the fossil record and molecular phylogenies suggest that there are fundamental limits to biodiversity, possibly arising from constraints in the availability of space, resources, or ecological niches. Under this hypothesis, speciation rates decay over time and biodiversity eventually saturates, with new species emerging only when others are driven to extinction. This view of macro-evolution contradicts an alternative hypothesis that biodiversity is unbounded, with species ever accumulating as they find new niches to occupy. These contrasting theories of biodiversity dynamics yield fundamentally different explanations for the disparity in species richness across taxa and regions. Here, we test whether speciation rates have decayed or remained constant over time, and whether biodiversity is saturated or still expanding. We first derive a general likelihood expression for internode distances in a phylogeny, based on the well-known coalescent process from population genetics. This expression accounts for either time-constant or time-variable rates, time-constant or time-variable diversity, and completely or incompletely sampled phylogenies. We then compare the performance of different diversification scenarios in explaining a set of 289 phylogenies representing amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, mollusks, and flowering plants. Our results indicate that speciation rates typically decay over time, but that diversity is still expanding at present. The evidence for expanding-diversity models suggests that an upper limit to biodiversity has not yet been reached, or that no such limit exists.     

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

Abstract What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of diversification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister‐clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster diversification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on diversification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase diversification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on diversification rates result from elevated speciation rates.