基于MRICES模型的气候融资模拟分析

气候融资是促进发展中国家获得减排资金的重要途径之一.基于发达国家成立专项资金用于国际气候融资且发展中国家将其所获得的转移资金完全用于碳减排的经济机制下,在MRICES(Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers,GDP溢出作用下的多区域气候经济综合模型)模型的基础上,扩展了模拟国际气候融资的模块.实验分析了气候融资在全球减排中的气候保护效益和对全球各国产生的经济效益.研究发现,持续的气候融资能有效抑制全球升温,但《坎昆协议》中提出的资金额度仅能使2100年全球升温比无资金转移时降低0.01℃,全球气候保护需要制定更长期的转移计划;气候融资能使发展中国家的经济受益,而发达国家虽然在转移初期会遭受轻微的GDP损失,但从长期看资金转移将促进发达国家的经济增长,最终出现资金转移输出方和输入方双赢的局面;同时,国际气候资金适量转移至中国有助于实现资金的优化高效使用,中国在全球减排中的贡献不容小觑.气候融资是一项气候保护有效、经济效益显著的减排机制.     

为了地球的携手

《京都议定书》规定,到2010年,所有发达国家排放二氧化碳等6种温室气体的数量,要比1990年减少量2％,发展中国家没有减排义务。对各发达国家来说,2008-2010年必须完成的削减目标是：与1990年相比,欧盟削减8％,美国削减7％,日本削减6％,加拿大削减6％,东欧各国削减5％～8％。新西兰、俄罗斯和乌克兰则不必削减,可以将排放量稳定在1990年的水平上。议定书同时允许爱尔兰、澳大利亚和挪威的排放量分别比1990年增加10％、8％、1％。基于这个原因,《京都议定书》纳入了3个合作减排机制——国际排放贸易、联合履行机制和清洁发展机制。     

为了地球的携手

《京都议定书》规定,到2010年,所有发达国家排放二氧化碳等6种温室气体的数量,要比1990年减少量2％,发展中国家没有减排义务。对各发达国家来说,2008-2010年必须完成的削减目标是：与1990年相比,欧盟削减8％,美国削减7％,日本削减6％,加拿大削减6％,东欧各国削减5％～8％。新西兰、俄罗斯和乌克兰则不必削减,可以将排放量稳定在1990年的水平上。议定书同时允许爱尔兰、澳大利亚和挪威的排放量分别比1990年增加10％、8％、1％。基于这个原因,《京都议定书》纳入了3个合作减排机制——国际排放贸易、联合履行机制和清洁发展机制。     

技术进步作用下中国CO2减排的可能性

建立了包含技术进步作用的CO2减排经济影响的宏观经济模型,基于这个模型,开展了中国减排CO₂经济影响的政策模拟,研究发现,中国每年降低排放0.2%的排放量（少增0.2%）,到2050年GDP会比不控制下降5.12%,但是最高还能保持GDP年增长率为7.2%左右,如果中国承担年少排0.5%的减排任务,从2000年到2050年相当于50a少排放12.4%,GDP的年增长率的平均值为6%左右。如果中国加大教育科研投资0.5%GDP,则不仅减排的影响可以克服,而且到2050年GDP提高25%左右     

技术进步作用下中国CO2减排的可能性

建立了包含技术进步作用的CO2减排经济影响的宏观经济模型,基于这个模型,开展了中国减排CO2经济影响的政策模拟,研究发现,中国每年降低排放0．2％的排放量（少增0．2％）,到2050年GDP会比不控制下降5．12％。但是最高还能保持GDP年增长率为7．2％左右,如果中国承担年少排0．5％的减排任务,从2000年到2050年相当于50a少排放12．4％,GDP的年增长率的平均值为6％左右。如果中国加大教育科研投资0．5％GDP,则不仅减排的影响可以克服。而且到2050年GDP提高25％左右。     

CO2排放控制的动态宏观经济模拟分析

以 Nordhaus- Pizer模型和 L eimbach模型为基础 ,在新经济增长理论框架下 ,发展了一个气候保护分析的宏观经济动态模型 ,模拟分析了不同削减水平下我国温室气体排放的对我国 GDP增长和社会福利的影响 ,数值模拟发现 :如果不推动减排 ,我国经济增长到 2 0 2 5年左右将失去优势。如果中国适当参加减排 ,采用每年控制少排放 0 .2 %的水平 ,到 2 0 5 0年相对不控制将少排放 1 0 % ,对中国经济发展最为有利 ,对全球气候保护也是一个贡献     

但愿人长久

联合国预测全球人口2050年为93亿,2010年将达到101亿。其中居住在贫民窟的人口到2010年已经增长到8.276亿。联合国对人口增长、资源消耗和气候变化最乐观的预测,到2030年,人类将需要2个地球以吸收排放的二氧化碳并满足对自然资源的消耗。全球有3亿人为森林居民,1000万人在森林管理和保护行业就业。WWF预测,如果人类不作为,从2010-2050年全球累计毁林面积将达2.32亿公顷(232万平方公里)。     

基于长期能源替代规划模型的江苏省能源CO2排放达峰时间及峰值水平

为了应对全球气候变暖,中国政府提出到2030年CO₂排放达到峰值(或峰值平台)的减排目标.为了探究中国能否实现该减排目标,本研究以江苏省为例,基于长期能源规划替代模型(LEAP),耦合对数平均迪氏分解模型,运用情景分析法科学设定快速、中速、慢速达峰3种发展情景,预测CO₂排放达峰时间及峰值水平.结果表明: 2000—2015年间,经济规模效应是CO₂排放总量增长的主要驱动因素,其贡献度高达147.4%;技术进步效应是最重要的缓解因素,贡献度为-60.4%,一次能源结构效应、产业结构效应、人均收入效应、人口规模效应的贡献度分别为-5.3%、9.7%、11.0%、0.6%.在快速、中速达峰情景下,江苏省分别在2025和2029年达到CO₂排放峰值,峰值分别为7.01、7.95亿t,慢速达峰情景下未能实现2030年的CO₂排放达峰目标.综合研究分析,江苏省有着较大的减排潜力,经过相应的努力能够实现CO₂减排目标.为实现2030年的CO₂减排目标可采取以下措施:主动适应经济新常态,稳定发展增速;积极发展第三产业,平衡经济结构;持续推进节能减排技术,降低能源消费强度;大力发展天然气及核电等清洁能源,优化一次能源消费结构.     

施肥对露地菜地氨挥发和氧化亚氮排放的影响

为探究施氮量和不同肥料调控措施对露地菜地土壤氨(NH₃)挥发和氧化亚氮(N₂O)排放的影响,在华北地区典型露地菜地设置了不同施氮水平和肥料调控措施的田间试验.结果表明: 春播黄瓜生育期内减氮20%和50%分别比常规施氮量降低氨挥发25.7%和48.0%;添加抑制剂(脲酶抑制剂+硝化抑制剂)和生物炭分别比等氮量氮肥处理氨挥发降低10.0%和6.1%;春播黄瓜生育期内减氮20%和50%分别使N₂O排放量比常规施肥处理降低28.8%和61.0%;等氮量条件下添加联合抑制剂使N₂O排放降低58.9%,而添加生物炭处理的N₂O排放增加14.1%;在同样的条施覆土施肥方法下,与纯化学氮肥处理相比,有机肥替代30%氮肥对氨挥发和N₂O减排的作用效果都不显著.对于集约化菜地,合理控制氮肥用量是降低土壤氨挥发及N₂O排放的最有效措施.     

兴安落叶松地理分布对气候变化响应的模拟

以温暖指数、寒冷指数、湿润指数、1月最低温度、7月最高温度和年降水量等环境变量为因子,比较分析了广义线性模型（GLM）、逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM）、广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树模型（CART）对兴安落叶松地理分布的模拟效果,其中GAM模型的模拟效果最好.在此基础上,应用GAM模型,结合未来气候变化情景模拟了兴安落叶松分布.结果表明,在SRES-A₂排放方案下,2020年兴安落叶松适宜分布面积将减少58.1%,2050年将减少99.7％;在SRES-B₂排放方案下,2020年兴安落叶松适宜分布面积将减少66.4%,2050年将减少97.9％.两种排放方案下,到2100年,兴安落叶松适宜分布区将从我国完全消失.     

A Unique Protease Cleavage Site Predicted in the Spike Protein of the Novel Pneumonia Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Potentially Related to Viral Transmissibility

正Dear Editor,In December 2019, a novel human coronavirus caused an epidemic of severe pneumonia(Coronavirus Disease 2019,COVID-19) in Wuhan, Hubei, China(Wu et al. 2020; Zhu et al. 2020). So far, this virus has spread to all areas of China and even to other countries. The epidemic has caused 67,102 confirmed infections with 1526 fatal cases     

Curcuminoids as inhibitors of thioredoxin reductase: A receptor based pharmacophore study with distance mapping of the active site

Curcumin is the yellow pigment of turmeric that interacts irreversibly forming an adduct with thioredoxin reductase (TrxR), an enzyme responsible for redox control of cell and defence against oxidative stress. Docking at both the active sites of TrxR was performed to compare the potency of three naturally occurring curcuminoids, namely curcumin, demethoxy curcumin and bis-demethoxy curcumin. Results show that active sites of TrxR occur at the junction of E and F chains. Volume and area of both cavities is predicted. It has been concluded by distance mapping of the most active conformations that Se atom of catalytic residue SeCYS498, is at a distance of 3.56 from C13 of demethoxy curcumin at the E chain active site, whereas C13 carbon atom forms adduct with Se atom of SeCys 498. We report that at least one methoxy group in curcuminoids is necessary for interation with catalytic residues of thioredoxin. Pharmacophore of both active sites of the TrxR receptor for curcumin and demethoxy curcumin molecules has been drawn and proposed for design and synthesis of most probable potent antiproliferative synthetic drugs.     

Comparative morphology of the carpel in the Liliaceae: Hewardieae, Petrosavieae, and Tricyrteae

The young pistils in the melanthioid tribes, Hewardieae, Petrosavieae and Tricyrteae, are uniformly tricarpellate and syncarpous. They lack raphide idioblasts. All are multiovulate, with bitegmic ovules. The Petrosavieae are marked by the presence of septal glands and incomplete syncarpy. Tepals and stamens adhere to the ovary in the Hewardieae and the Petrosavieae but not in the Tricyrteae. Two vascular bundles occur in the stamens of the Hewartlieae and Tricyrtis latifolia. Ventral bundles in the upper part of the ovary of the Hewardieae are continuous with compound septal bundles and placental bundles in the lower part. Putative ventral bundles occur in the alternate position in the Tricyrteae and putative placental bundles in the opposite. position in the Petrosavieae. The dichtomously branched stigma in each carpel of the Tricyrteae is supplied by a bifurcated dorsal bundle.     

Enterovirus 71 3C proteolytically processes the histone H3 N-terminal tail during infection

Highlights
1. The N-terminal tail of histone H3 is specifically cleaved during EV71 infection.
2. Viral protease 3C is identified as a protease responsible for proteolytically processing the N-terminal H3 tail.
3. Our finding reveals a new epigenetic regulatory mechanism for Enterovirus 71 in virus-host interactions.     

Detection of EBV and HHV6 in the Brain Tissue of Patients with Rasmussen’s Encephalitis

Rasmussen’s encephalitis (RE) is a rare pediatric neurological disorder, and the exact etiology is not clear. Viral infection may be involved in the pathogenesis of RE, but conflicting results have reported. In this study, we evaluated the expression of both Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human herpes virus (HHV) 6 antigens in brain sections from 30 patients with RE and 16 control individuals by immunohistochemistry. In the RE group, EBV and HHV6 antigens were detected in 56.7% (17/30) and 50% (15/30) of individuals, respectively. In contrast, no detectable EBV and HHV6 antigen expression was found in brain tissues of the control group. The co-expression of EBV and HHV6 was detected in 20.0% (6/30) of individuals. In particular, a 4-year-old boy had a typical clinical course, including a medical history of viral encephalitis, intractable epilepsy, and hemispheric atrophy. The co-expression of EBV and HHV6 was detected in neurons and astrocytes in the brain tissue, accompanied by a high frequency of CD8⁺ T cells. Our results suggest that EBV and HHV6 infection and the activation of CD8⁺ T cells are involved in the pathogenesis of RE.     

Perinatal Vertical Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Ruili,a Town on the Border between China and Myanmar

正Dear Editor,Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an arbovirus in the family of Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, is transmitted by the A.aegyptii or A. albopictus mosquito, and causes disease in humans characterized by fever, rash, and arthralgia (Silva and Dermody 2017; Suhrbier 2019). It was first reported in 1953 in Tanzania, and caused only a few outbreaks and sporadic cases in Africa and Asia in last century. However, in the epidemic in 2004, CHIKV acquired mutations that conferred enhanced transmission by the A. albopictus mosquito(Schuffenecker et al. 2006). Since then, it has successively caused outbreaks in Africa, the Indian Ocean, South East Asia, the South America, and Europe (Zeller et al. 2016).     

Development of a Novel Reverse Transcription Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification Method for Rapid Detection of SARS-CoV-2

In conclusion, the novel visual RT-LAMP assay is a simple, rapid, and sensitive approach for detection of SARS-CoV-2, and it is ready for application in primary care and community hospitals or health care centers, and even patients' own houses in response to the current SARS-CoV-2 epidemic because the assay does not require sophisticated equipment and skilled personnel. Furthermore, it is also ready to be used in fields for screening samples from wild animals and environments to facilitate the identification of potential intermediate hosts that mediate the cross-species transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from bats to humans.