Experimental evidence of gradual size‐dependent shifts in body size and growth of fish in response to warming

A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small‐scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short‐term body size responses are representative of long‐term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short‐ and long‐term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before‐after control‐impact paired time‐series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small‐bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature–size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.     

Moth body size increases with elevation along a complete tropical elevational gradient for two hyperdiverse clades

The body size of an animal is probably its most important functional trait. For arthropods, environmental drivers of body size variation are still poorly documented and understood, especially in tropical regions. We use a unique dataset for two species‐rich, phylogenetically independent moth taxa (Lepidoptera: Geometridae; Arctiinae), collected along an extensive tropical elevational gradient in Costa Rica, to investigate the correlates and possible causes of body‐size variation. We studied 15 047 specimens (794 species) of Geometridae and 4167 specimens (308 species) of Arctiinae to test the following hypotheses: 1) body size increases with decreasing ambient temperature, as predicted by the temperature–size rule; 2) body size increases with increasing rainfall and primary productivity, as predicted from considerations of starvation resistance; and 3) body size scales allometrically with wing area, as elevation increases, such that wing loading (the ratio of body size to wing area) decreases with increasing elevation to compensate for lower air density. To test these hypotheses, we examined forewing length as a proxy for body size in relation to ambient temperature, rainfall, vegetation index and elevation as explanatory variables in linear and polynomial spatial regression models. We analysed our data separately for males and females using two principal approaches: mean forewing length of species at each site, and mean forewing length of complete local assemblages, weighted by abundance. Body size consistently increased with elevation in both taxa, both approaches, both sexes, and also within species. Temperature was the best predictor for this pattern (–0.98 < r < –0.74), whereas body size was uncorrelated or weakly correlated with rainfall and enhanced vegetation index. Wing loading increased with elevation. Our results support the temperature–size rule as an important mechanism for body size variation in arthropods along tropical elevational gradients, whereas starvation resistance and optimization of flight mechanics seem to be of minor importance.     

Little effect of climate change on body size of herbivorous beetles

Ongoing climate change affects various aspects of an animal's life, with important effects on distribution range and phenology. The relationship between global warming and body size changes in mammals and birds has been widely studied, with most findings indicating a decline in body size over time. Nevertheless, little data exist on similar size change patterns of invertebrates in general and insects in particular, and it is unclear whether insects should decrease in size or not with climate warming. We measured over 4000 beetle specimens, belonging to 29 beetle species in 8 families, collected in Israel during the last 100 years. The sampled species are all herbivorous. We examined whether beetle body size had changed over the years, while also investigating the relationships between body size and annual temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity (NPP) at the collection site and collection month. None of the environmental variables, including the collection year, was correlated with the size of most of the studied beetle species, while there were strong interactions of all variables with species. Our results, though mostly negative, suggest that the effect of climate change on insect body size is species‐specific and by no means a general macro‐ecological rule. They also suggest that the intrapopulation variance in body size of insects collected as adults in the field is large enough to conceal intersite environmental effects on body size, such as the effect of temperature and NPP.     

Large but uneven reduction in fish size across species in relation to changing sea temperatures

Ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes when they develop at higher temperatures. This phenomenon, known as the temperature–size rule, has important consequences for global fisheries, whereby ocean warming is predicted to result in smaller fish and reduced biomass. However, the generality of this phenomenon and the mechanisms that drive it in natural populations remain unresolved. In this study, we document the maximal size of 74 fish species along a steep temperature gradient in the Mediterranean Sea and find strong support for the temperature–size rule. Importantly, we additionally find that size reduction in active fish species is dramatically larger than for more sedentary species. As the temperature dependence of oxygen consumption depends on activity levels, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that oxygen is a limiting factor shaping the temperature–size rule in fishes. These results suggest that ocean warming will result in a sharp, but uneven, reduction in fish size that will cause major shifts in size‐dependent interactions. Moreover, warming will have major implications for fisheries as the main species targeted for harvesting will show the most substantial declines in biomass.     

Variations in fecundity over catchment scales: Implications for caddisfly populations spanning a thermal gradient

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Body size explains interspecific variation in size–latitude relationships in geographically widespread beetle species

1. In most birds and mammals, larger individuals of the same species tend to be found at higher latitudes, but in insects, body size–latitude relationships are highly variable. 2. Recent studies have shown that larger‐bodied insect species are more likely to decrease in size when reared at increased temperature, compared with smaller‐sized species. These findings have led to the prediction that a positive relationship between body size and latitude should be more prevalent in larger‐bodied insect species. 3. This study measured the body size of > 4000 beetle specimens (12 species) collected throughout North America. Some beetle species increased in size with latitude, while others decreased. Importantly, mean species body size explained c. 30% of the interspecific variation in the size–latitude response. 4. As predicted, larger‐bodied beetle species were more likely to show a positive relationship between body size and latitude (Bergmann's rule), and smaller‐bodied species were more likely to show a negative body size–latitude relationship (inverse Bergmann's rule). 5. These body size–latitude patterns suggest that size‐specific responses to temperature may underlie global latitudinal distributions of body size in Coleoptera, as well as other insects.     

Ecological emergence of thermal clines in body size

The unprecedented rate of global warming requires a better understanding of how ecosystems will respond. Organisms often have smaller body sizes under warmer climates (Bergmann's rule and the temperature‐size rule), and body size is a major determinant of life histories, demography, population size, nutrient turnover rate, and food‐web structure. Therefore, by altering body sizes in whole communities, current warming can potentially disrupt ecosystem function and services. However, the underlying drivers of warming‐induced body downsizing remain far from clear. Here, we show that thermal clines in body size are predicted from universal laws of ecology and metabolism, so that size‐dependent selection from competition (both intra and interspecific) and predation favors smaller individuals under warmer conditions. We validate this prediction using 4.1 × 10⁶ individual body size measurements from French river fish spanning 29 years and 52 species. Our results suggest that warming‐induced body downsizing is an emergent property of size‐structured food webs, and highlight the need to consider trophic interactions when predicting biosphere reorganizations under global warming.     

The underestimated role of temperature–oxygen relationship in large‐scale studies on size‐to‐temperature response

The observation that ectotherm size decreases with increasing temperature (temperature‐size rule; TSR) has been widely supported. This phenomenon intrigues researchers because neither its adaptive role nor the conditions under which it is realized are well defined. In light of recent theoretical and empirical studies, oxygen availability is an important candidate for understanding the adaptive role behind TSR. However, this hypothesis is still undervalued in TSR studies at the geographical level. We reanalyzed previously published data about the TSR pattern in diatoms sampled from Icelandic geothermal streams, which concluded that diatoms were an exception to the TSR. Our goal was to incorporate oxygen as a factor in the analysis and to examine whether this approach would change the results. Specifically, we expected that the strength of size response to cold temperatures would be different than the strength of response to hot temperatures, where the oxygen limitation is strongest. By conducting a regression analysis for size response at the community level, we found that diatoms from cold, well‐oxygenated streams showed no size‐to‐temperature response, those from intermediate temperature and oxygen conditions showed reverse TSR, and diatoms from warm, poorly oxygenated streams showed significant TSR. We also distinguished the roles of oxygen and nutrition in TSR. Oxygen is a driving factor, while nutrition is an important factor that should be controlled for. Our results show that if the geographical or global patterns of TSR are to be understood, oxygen should be included in the studies. This argument is important especially for predicting the size response of ectotherms facing climate warming.     

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site‐specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole‐community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30–40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10–20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change.     

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four‐decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40‐year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length – an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour – has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming‐induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming‐induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.     

Do marine phytoplankton follow Bergmann's rule sensu lato?

Global warming has revitalized interest in the relationship between body size and temperature, proposed by Bergmann's rule 150 years ago, one of the oldest manifestations of a ‘biogeography of traits’. We review biogeographic evidence, results from clonal cultures and recent micro‐ and mesocosm experiments with naturally mixed phytoplankton communities regarding the response of phytoplankton body size to temperature, either as a single factor or in combination with other factors such as grazing, nutrient limitation, and ocean acidification. Where possible, we also focus on the comparison between intraspecific size shifts and size shifts resulting from changes in species composition. Taken together, biogeographic evidence, community‐level experiments and single‐species experiments indicate that phytoplankton average cell sizes tend to become smaller in warmer waters, although temperature is not necessarily the proximate environmental factor driving size shifts. Indirect effects via nutrient supply and grazing are important and often dominate. In a substantial proportion of field studies, resource availability is seen as the only factor of relevance. Interspecific size effects are greater than intraspecific effects. Direct temperature effects tend to be exacerbated by indirect ones, if warming leads to intensified nutrient limitation or copepod grazing while ocean acidification tends to counteract the temperature effect on cell size in non‐calcifying phytoplankton. We discuss the implications of the temperature‐related size trends in a global‐warming context, based on known functional traits associated with phytoplankton size. These are a higher affinity for nutrients of smaller cells, highest maximal growth rates of moderately small phytoplankton (ca. 10² µm³), size‐related sensitivities for different types of grazers, and impacts on sinking rates. For a phytoplankton community increasingly dominated by smaller algae we predict that: (i) a higher proportion of primary production will be respired within the microbial food web; (ii) a smaller share of primary production will be channeled to the classic phytoplankton – crustacean zooplankton – fish food chain, thus leading to decreased ecological efficiency from a fish‐production point of view; (iii) a smaller share of primary production will be exported through sedimentation, thus leading to decreased efficiency of the biological carbon pump.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

Shrinking body sizes in response to warming: explanations for the temperature–size rule with special emphasis on the role of oxygen

Body size is central to ecology at levels ranging from organismal fecundity to the functioning of communities and ecosystems. Understanding temperature-induced variations in body size is therefore of fundamental and applied interest, yet thermal responses of body size remain poorly understood. Temperature–size (T–S) responses tend to be negative (e.g. smaller body size at maturity when reared under warmer conditions), which has been termed the temperature–size rule (TSR). Explanations emphasize either physiological mechanisms (e.g. limitation of oxygen or other resources and temperature-dependent resource allocation) or the adaptive value of either a large body size (e.g. to increase fecundity) or a short development time (e.g. in response to increased mortality in warm conditions). Oxygen limitation could act as a proximate factor, but we suggest it more likely constitutes a selective pressure to reduce body size in the warm: risks of oxygen limitation will be reduced as a consequence of evolution eliminating genotypes more prone to oxygen limitation. Thus, T–S responses can be explained by the ‘Ghost of Oxygen-limitation Past’, whereby the resulting (evolved) T–S responses safeguard sufficient oxygen provisioning under warmer conditions, reflecting the balance between oxygen supply and demands experienced by ancestors. T–S responses vary considerably across species, but some of this variation is predictable. Body-size reductions with warming are stronger in aquatic taxa than in terrestrial taxa. We discuss whether larger aquatic taxa may especially face greater risks of oxygen limitation as they grow, which may be manifested at the cellular level, the level of the gills and the whole-organism level. In contrast to aquatic species, terrestrial ectotherms may be less prone to oxygen limitation and prioritize early maturity over large size, likely because overwintering is more challenging, with concomitant stronger end-of season time constraints. Mechanisms related to time constraints and oxygen limitation are not mutually exclusive explanations for the TSR. Rather, these and other mechanisms may operate in tandem. But their relative importance may vary depending on the ecology and physiology of the species in question, explaining not only the general tendency of negative T–S responses but also variation in T–S responses among animals differing in mode of respiration (e.g. water breathers versus air breathers), genome size, voltinism and thermally associated behaviour (e.g. heliotherms).     

Size‐based ecological interactions drive food web responses to climate warming

Predicting climate change impacts on animal communities requires knowledge of how physiological effects are mediated by ecological interactions. Food‐dependent growth and within‐species size variation depend on temperature and affect community dynamics through feedbacks between individual performance and population size structure. Still, we know little about how warming affects these feedbacks. Using a dynamic stage‐structured biomass model with food‐, size‐ and temperature‐dependent life history processes, we analyse how temperature affects coexistence, stability and size structure in a tri‐trophic food chain, and find that warming effects on community stability depend on ecological interactions. Predator biomass densities generally decline with warming – gradually or through collapses – depending on which consumer life stage predators feed on. Collapses occur when warming induces alternative stable states via Allee effects. This suggests that predator persistence in warmer climates may be lower than previously acknowledged and that effects of warming on food web stability largely depend on species interactions.     

Temperature-body size responses in insects: a case study of British Odonata

1. Body size is highly correlated with physiological traits, fitness, and trophic interactions. These traits are subject to change if there are widespread reductions of body size with warming temperatures, which is suggested as one of the ‘universal’ ecological responses to climate change. However, general patterns of body size response to temperature in insects have not yet emerged. 2. To address this knowledge gap, we paired the wing length (as a proxy for body size) of 5331 museum specimens of 14 species of British Odonata with historical temperature data. Three sets of analyses were performed: (i) a regression analysis to test for a relationship between wing length and mean seasonal temperature within species and subsequent comparisons across species and suborders; (ii) an investigation of whether the body size of species has an effect on sensitivity to warming temperature; and (iii) a linear-mixed effects model to investigate factors that potentially affect temperature–size response. 3. The regression analysis indicated that wing length is negatively correlated with mean seasonal temperatures for Zygoptera, whereas Anisoptera showed no significant correlation with temperature. 4. There is a significant decline in wing length of all Zygoptera (but not Anisoptera) with collection date, suggesting that individuals emerging later in the season are smaller. 5. Life-cycle type was not important for predicting wing length–temperature responses, whereas sex, species, and suborder were indicated as important factors affecting the magnitude of temperature–size responses in Odonata. 6. Overall, wing lengths of Zygoptera are more sensitive to temperature and collection date than Anisoptera.     

The fiddler crab,Minuca pugnax,follows Bergmann's rule

Bergmann's rule predicts that organisms at higher latitudes are larger than ones at lower latitudes. Here, we examine the body size pattern of the Atlantic marsh fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax (formerly Uca pugnax), from salt marshes on the east coast of the United States across 12 degrees of latitude. We found that M. pugnax followed Bergmann's rule and that, on average, crab carapace width increased by 0.5 mm per degree of latitude. Minuca pugnax body size also followed the temperature–size rule with body size inversely related to mean water temperature. Because an organism's size influences its impact on an ecosystem, and M. pugnax is an ecosystem engineer that affects marsh functioning, the larger crabs at higher latitudes may have greater per‐capita impacts on salt marshes than the smaller crabs at lower latitudes.     

Bill size variation in northern cardinals associated with anthropogenic drivers across North America

Allen's rule predicts that homeotherms inhabiting cooler climates will have smaller appendages, while those inhabiting warmer climates will have larger appendages relative to body size. Birds’ bills tend to be larger at lower latitudes, but few studies have tested whether modern climate change and urbanization affect bill size. Our study explored whether bill size in a wide‐ranging bird would be larger in warmer, drier regions and increase with rising temperatures. Furthermore, we predicted that bill size would be larger in densely populated areas, due to urban heat island effects and the higher concentration of supplementary foods. Using measurements from 605 museum specimens, we explored the effects of climate and housing density on northern cardinal bill size over an 85‐year period across the Linnaean subspecies’ range. We quantified the geographic relationships between bill surface area, housing density, and minimum temperature using linear mixed effect models and geographically weighted regression. We then tested whether bill surface area changed due to housing density and temperature in three subregions (Chicago, IL., Washington, D.C., and Ithaca, NY). Across North America, cardinals occupying drier regions had larger bills, a pattern strongest in males. This relationship was mediated by temperature such that birds in warm, dry areas had larger bills than those in cool, dry areas. Over time, female cardinals’ bill size increased with warming temperatures in Washington, D.C., and Ithaca. Bill size was smaller in developed areas of Chicago, but larger in Washington, D.C., while there was no pattern in Ithaca, NY. We found that climate and urbanization were strongly associated with bill size for a wide‐ranging bird. These biogeographic relationships were characterized by sex‐specific differences, varying relationships with housing density, and geographic variability. It is likely that anthropogenic pressures will continue to influence species, potentially promoting microevolutionary changes over space and time.     

Among‐species overlap in rodent body size distributions predicts species richness along a temperature gradient

Temperature is widely regarded as a major driver of species richness, but the mechanisms are debated. Niche theory suggests temperature may affect richness by filtering traits and species in colder habitats while promoting specialization in warmer ones. However, tests of this theory are rare because niche dimensions are challenging to quantify along broad thermal gradients. Here, we use individual‐level trait data from a long‐term monitoring network spanning a large geographic extent to test niche‐based theory of community assembly in small mammals. We examined variation in body size among 23 communities of North American rodents sampled across the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), ranging from northern hardwood forests to subtropical deserts. We quantified body size similarity among species using a metric of overlap that accounts for individual variation, and fit a structural equation model to disentangle the relationships between temperature, productivity, body size overlap, and species richness. We document a latitudinal gradient of declining similarity in body size among species towards the tropics and overall increase in the dimensions of community‐wide trait space in warmer habitats. Neither environmental temperature nor net primary productivity directly affect rodent species richness. Instead, temperature determines the community‐wide niche space that species can occupy, which in turn alters richness. We suggest a latitudinal gradient of trait space expansion towards the tropics may be widespread and underlie gradients in species diversity.     

Temperature‐dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature‐ and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage‐structured consumer‐resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage‐specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage‐structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size–temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size‐specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities.     

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization.