中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应

为了揭示中国温带植物物候随时间变化和植物物候对气候变化响应的空间格局及其生态机制,利用52个站点1986—2005年的旱柳展叶始期、开花始期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的物候数据,分析其时间序列的线性趋势,并通过建立基于最佳期间日均温的物候时间模型,确定物候发生日期对气温年际变化的响应。在研究的时段内,区域平均旱柳展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别以-4.2 d/10 a、-3.8 d/10 a和-3.3 d/10 a的平均速率显著提前,而区域平均旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期则分别呈不显著推迟和以2.4 d/10 a的平均速率显著推迟的趋势。单站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势以提前为主,显著提前的站点分别占40%、41%和29%;叶变色始期发生日期呈显著提前和显著推迟趋势的站点数相当,分别占17%和19%;落叶末期发生日期的线性趋势以推迟为主,显著推迟的站点占23%。各站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势空间序列与相应的最佳期间日均温的线性趋势空间序列之间呈显著负相关,表明一个站点前期气温升高的速率越快,该站这些物候期发生日期提前的速率就越快。在物候期对气温年际变化的响应方面,区域平均春季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别提前3.08 d、2.83 d和3.54 d;区域平均秋季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期分别推迟1.69 d和2.28 d。单站展叶始期和落叶末期发生日期对气温年际变化的响应表现出在温暖地区的站点比在寒冷地区的站点更为敏感的特点。总体上看,基于日均温的物候时间模型对春、夏季物候期的模拟精度明显高于对秋季物候期的模拟精度。建立了基于最佳期间日均温和日累积降水量的改进秋季物候模型,该模型使旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的模拟精度显著提高。由此可见,旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期受到前期气温和降水量的综合影响。     

光温耦合的中国温带地区旱柳花期时空格局模拟

建立基于温度和光周期驱动的旱柳花期物候模型,旨在寻找影响旱柳花期时空变化的主要气象因子,揭示调控植物开花时间的生态机制,还可为改善柳絮造成的环境污染和花粉过敏等人类健康问题提供参考信息和依据。利用中国气象局农业气象观测网提供的中国温带地区1982-2011年49个站点的旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期观测资料及平行的逐日气象数据,分别对6种模型（简单积温模型、温度三基点模型、八时段温度模型、简单积温-日长模型、温度三基点-日长模型和八时段温度-日长模型）进行了参数率定和假设检验,根据外部检验结果,从中选出针对旱柳3个花期的最优物候模型,进而利用连续地理气象数据和最优物候模型重建了1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期、末期和花期长度的时空变化特征。结果表明：光温耦合的物候模型对旱柳花期的模拟效果和外推效果优于仅基于温度的模型。旱柳开花始期和盛期最优模型均为八时段温度-日长模型,末期为温度三基点-日长模型,说明光周期和温度可能是影响旱柳花期开始、繁盛和结束时间的主要气象因子。同时,优选出的物候模型能够较准确地对不同年份和不同地区的旱柳花期进行模拟及预测。重建的1982-2011年旱柳平均开花始期、盛期和末期日期分别为4月24日、4月28日和5月3日,平均花期长度为9 d,始期、盛期和末期出现日期呈现出从海拔低到高、从南向北、从西向东逐渐推迟的空间格局。1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期在大部分地区呈提前趋势,呈显著提前趋势的面积分别占总面积的49.78%、50.01%和53.40%,花期长度变化差异不显著。     

西安和宝鸡木本植物花期物候变化及温度敏感度对比

植物物候是指示生态系统对气候变化响应的重要证据。已有研究多基于代表性站点的物候观测数据研究物候特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。同一气候区内,不同站点的物候变化及对温度变化响应的敏感度是否一致仍需深入探讨。本文选择同属于暖温带湿润区汾渭平原气候区的西安和宝鸡为研究区,利用"中国物候观测网"在两个站点21个共有物种的开花始期和开花末期数据,比较了1987—2016年两站点各植物花期物候变化特征及其对温度变化响应的敏感度差异。结果表明,西安和宝鸡各物种的开花始期和开花末期均以提前趋势为主。大部分物种开花始期在西安的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.57 d/a)明显强于在宝鸡的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.29 d/a),但开花末期趋势差异不显著。除紫薇和迎春的敏感度差异较大外,其他物种开花始期和开花末期的温度敏感度在两站点间非常接近,无显著差异。由此可见,在同一气候区的不同站点,因增温幅度不同,植物的始花期变化存在较大差异,不能用单站点的物候变化反映整个气候区的物候变化。但同一植物在单站点的温度敏感度可以较好的反映同一气候区其他站点的植物物候-气候关系。本文研究结果可为利用有限站点的物候观测数据分析区域物候变化及对气候变化的响应提供科学依据。     

莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明：巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟 叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现 开花末期、叶变色始期 落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0～-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17～28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.     

民勤荒漠植被对气候变化的响应

运用民勤荒漠区1974-2009年物候观测资料和2002-2010年植被样方观测资料以及同期气象资料,分析了荒漠植被对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-2010年,民勤荒漠区气温升高,空气湿度增大,年均气温升高速率大于全球水平和中国近百年平均水平;植物对气温变化的响应主要表现在春季物候提前、秋季物候推迟、生长季延长;植被对降水量变化的响应主要表现为植被盖度和纯盖度随降水量减少而降低,植株密度、植物多度随降水量变化而波动;植被盖度和纯盖度与年降水量的相关性较高,然后依次为6-7月和4-5月的降水量;植株密度和植物多度与9月降水量呈正相关;植物春季物候提前的次序是芽初膨大期＞芽开放期＞开花始期＞展叶始期和展叶盛期＞花蕾序出现＞开花盛期＞开花末期＞果实成熟期;秋季物候推迟的次序是叶全变色期＞落叶始期＞叶初变色期＞落叶末期.春季气温升高对民勤荒漠区植物物候的影响大于秋季气温升高对物候的影响.     

气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

基于温度影响因子的植物物候模型的应用研究

本文根据川渝地区的物候和气候资料,采用基于温度影响因子的热时物候模型,进行了植物春季物候模拟和检验,并对通过检验的物候模型在温度因子变化下的响应灵敏性进行了分析.仁寿刺槐、北碚刺槐、北碚紫荆三种植物的展叶期和始花期可以用热时模型来进行模拟预测,并且准确度较高.在置信度为68.3%,即绝对误差小于实测值标准差σ的区间内,仁寿刺槐展叶期预测值与实测值的拟合率为87.5%,北碚刺槐展叶期的拟合率为100%,北碚紫荆展叶期的拟合率为93.33%;仁寿刺槐始花期的拟合率为100%,北碚刺槐始花期的拟合率为100%,北碚紫荆始花期的拟合率为93.33%.三种植物春季物候模型对温度因子变化响应灵敏性显示:同期温度降低2°时,植物展叶期平均推迟13d以上,始花期平均推迟11d以上;同期温度升高2°时,植物展叶期平均提前15.2d以上,始花期平均提前9,8d以上.     

近40年沈阳城市森林春季物候与全球气候变暖的关系

1960-2005年期间,沈阳气候受全球气候变暖的影响,年平均气温总体呈上升趋势,气温升幅为0.96℃,但以1982年为界,1960-1982年为偏冷阶段,气温降幅最大值为1.95 ℃:1983-2005年为偏暖阶段,气温升幅最大值为1.60 ℃.一年四季气温处于上升阶段,以冬、春季气温升幅最大,分别为2.3 ℃和1.35℃.城市森林主要树种的春季物候期,在气候偏冷阶段,春季物候期出现较晚,而在偏暖阶段,春季物候期提前发生.同时,物候春季开始日期与结束日期有密切的同步相关性,并与物候季节节奏的长短呈负相关.树木萌动期早晚与冬季和早春气温高低呈显著的负相关,冬春季气温越高,芽萌动越提前.展叶早晚主要受展叶前的春季气温高低的影响,与冬季气温相关性不显著.始花前2-8旬,特别是2-14旬气温对始花期影响最显著.寒冷指数(CI)与树木芽萌动期、展叶始期呈显著正相关,而与开花始期相关性不显著.预测了CO2倍增和气温升高条件下,沈阳城市森林主要树种的萌动期、展叶始期和开花始期分别提前40.41、43.08和24.13 d.     

气候变化背景下1964-2015年秦岭植物物候变化

以1964-2015年物候观测数据为基础,选取17种含乔木、灌木及藤本树种为研究对象,分析探讨了气候变化背景下秦岭地区植物物候变化规律及其差异性。结果表明:(1)52年来,秦岭地区物候始期普遍呈提前趋势,提前速率1.2d/10a,物候末期普遍呈推迟趋势,推迟速率3.5d/10a,物候生长期普遍延长;(2)秦岭地区物候突变发生于20世纪80年代,始期于1985年,末期于1984年。突变后,物候特征发生了显著变化,始期的提前速率较突变前显著加快,末期由突变前的提前趋势转变为极显著的推迟趋势,且变化速率和显著性均高于始期;始期与末期变化均表现出"趋同效应";物候年代际变化趋势显示,始期自2001-2005年起提前速率减缓,植物对气候变化的响应表现出适应性及滞后性。(3)秦岭物候变化存在树种差异,3大类树种始期的提前速率呈藤本、乔木、灌木依次增大,而末期的推迟速率则呈藤本、灌木、乔木依次减小。(4)秦岭物候变化存在南北差异,北坡始期的提前速率均高于南坡,而南坡末期的推迟速率均高于北坡。     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Changes in phenology of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) in Hungary

 Intense research is being carried out on climate variability and change and the estimation and detection of anthropogenic effects. In addition to statistical methods, the use of plants, as biological indicators is becoming more popular as they are sensitive to environmental conditions. In this article we compare maps of the flowering dates of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) for three different time intervals between 1851 and 1994. The maps revealed noticeable shifts of dates, of approximately 3–8 days, towards earlier flowering. This change is related to the average temperature of spring (15 March–15 May), via a simple statistical model that is accurate enough to be able to quantify phenological changes and to calculate the corresponding warming. The model developed can estimate spring mean temperature using phenological data from R. pseudoacacia L. with an accuracy of 0.2° C. Estimates of mean temperature based on phenological changes are compared to climatic series. This comparison emphasizes the possibility of using R. pseudoacacia. L. as a bio-indicator. Estimates of temperature changes are also given. Received: 5 August 1996 / Revised: 14 April 1997 / Accepted: 11 November 1997     

Estimating the first flowering and full blossom dates of Yoshino cherry (Cerasus × yedoensis ‘Somei-yoshino’) in Japan using machine learning algorithms

Climate change alters the phenology of various plants. For example, increasing temperatures shift the first flowering and full blossom days of Yoshino cherry trees and affect cultural events related to cherry blossoms. We developed models to estimate the first flowering and full blossom dates of Yoshino cherry in Japan based on temperature and phenological data observed at 82 stations in Japan for 68 years (1953–2020). Three machine learning algorithms, namely, the random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithms, were utilized, and the hyperparameters were optimized using Optuna. The GBDT models produced the best estimation accuracy, with an overall root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.53 and 1.48 days for the first flowering date and full blossom date, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) revealed that in the RF and GBDT models, the low temperature in winter and high temperature in spring would advance the estimated first flowering and full blossom dates.     

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species’ phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39–43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71–85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was ?3.93 to 3.30 days °C^?1 and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C^?1, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.     

Flowering phenology in Solidago altissima: adaptive strategies against temporal variation in temperature

The evolution of flowering phenology is the result of a trade-off that balances many factors, including growth, reproductive capacity, and temporal overlap with pollinators. When there is large temporal variation in temperature, particularly in the onset of frost, the optimum flowering strategy will vary from year to year. In Duluth, MN, USA, the end of the growing season can vary by more than 30 days. In this study, we observed flowering phenology and pollinator abundance on 15 genotypes of Solidago altissima in Duluth, MN. We predicted that temporal variation in temperature would lead to a range of flowering strategies in the S. altissima population; some genotypes flower early and in synchrony, some ‘hedge their bets’ by flowering over a range of dates, and others have an intermediate strategy. Our results indicate that genotypes vary in mean flowering date and duration of flowering and, for the two observed years, pollinator abundance was highest for early-flowering genotypes.     

Weekend bias in Citizen Science data reporting: implications for phenology studies

Studies of bird phenology can help elucidate the effects of climate change on wildlife species but observations over broad spatial scales are difficult without a network of observers. Recently, networks of citizen volunteers have begun to report first arrival dates for many migratory species. Potential benefits are substantial (e.g., understanding ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales) if known biases of citizen data reporting are identified and addressed. One potential source of bias in bird phenology studies is the tendency for more “first” migratory arrivals to be reported on weekends than on weekdays. We investigated weekend bias in data reporting for five common bird species in North America (Baltimore Oriole, Icterus galbula; Barn Swallow, Hirundo rustica; Chimney Swift, Chaetura pelagica; Purple Martin, Progne subis; and Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Archilochus colubris), and assessed whether this bias affected mean arrival dates reported using data from historical (1880–1969; N?=?25,555) and recent (1997–2010; N?=?63,149) Citizen Science databases. We found a greater percentage of first arrivals reported on weekends and small but significant differences in mean arrival dates (approximately 0.5 days) for four of five species. Comparing time periods, this weekend bias decreased from 33.7 % and five species in the historical time period to 32 % and three species in the recent, perhaps related to changes in human activity patterns. Our results indicate that weekend bias in citizen data reporting is decreasing over time in North America and including a ‘day of week’ term in models examining changes in phenology could help make conclusions more robust.     

气候变化驱动下黄土高原刺槐林气候适宜性和脆弱性

刺槐是黄土高原乡土树种,具有优良的水土保持和固碳功能。黄土高原生态恢复实践中实施了大规模的植树造林,刺槐林面积占沟壑丘陵区人工植树造林面积90%以上。由于种植时没有考虑刺槐的气候适宜性,一些地区的刺槐林出现了退化现象。采用最大熵模型,在0.5km×0.5km空间精度上分别模拟了1961—1990、1966—1995、1971—2000、1976—2005、1981—2010,以及2100年(典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下)黄土高原刺槐的气候适宜性和敏感性。模拟结果显示：黄土高原刺槐分布及其动态变化主要受到最冷月温度、极端低温、降水量、年辐射量等气候因子影响,低温(最冷月温度、极端低温)是影响刺槐的最关键因子。黄土高原西北和北部广大地区,自然环境条件不适合刺槐林生长;黄土高原东南部(关中平原和山西南部)比较适合刺槐生长。相对1961—1990年,1961—2010年期间刺槐林适宜区分布格局基本没有改变,RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下刺槐林适宜区分布格局也没有显著改变。图层叠加分析发现,刺槐的气候适宜度(即存在概率)发生了明显改变。黄土高原西部和北部属于不适宜刺槐生...     

Interactive Effects of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi and Copper Stress on Flowering Phenology and Reproduction of Elsholtzia splendens

Plant responses to heavy metal contamination may depend on the presence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). Elsholtzia splendens is an indicator species for the presence of copper (Cu) mines because both its flowering phenology and reproduction are tolerant to heavy metals. To test whether effects of Cu on the flowering phenology and reproduction of E. splendens depend on the presence of AMF, we conducted a factorial experiment with two Cu treatments (with or without Cu addition) crossed with two AMF treatments (with or without AMF inoculation). Without AMF, Cu addition significantly delayed the onset dates, ending dates and peak dates of flowering and decreased flowering duration. However, AMF inoculation reversed the effects of Cu stress, with recovered flowering onset and ending dates and increased the flowering duration. Cu addition significantly decreased inflorescence width and number, inflorescence biomass, vegetative biomass and total seed number, but significantly increased 1000-seed weight. AMF inoculation significantly increased vegetative biomass. Two-way ANOVA results showed that the interactive effects between Cu addition and AMF inoculation were significant on the inflorescence number, vegetative biomass and total seed number. These results indicate that AMF can alleviate the Cu stress on the flowering phenology and reproduction of E. splendens.     

Evidences of olive pollination date variations in relation to spring temperature trends

Airborne pollen concentration patterns reflect flowering phenology of a given species, and it may be a sensitive regional indicator in climate change studies. This paper presents the relationship between a strategic biological event, such as olive flowering, and the air temperature trend, registered over a large scale (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The aim of the study was to determine relationships between phenological behaviour (flowering) of olive trees and the air temperature trend (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The phenological data on flowering phase were registered indirectly through an aerobiological monitoring technique. The obtained results showed a strong relationship between phenology and thermal trend. This characteristic was confirmed from results of correlations between temperature (mean temperature from 1st March) and flowering dates, especially that of full flowering (r = −0.9297). Moreover, the results showed an advance trend of 6, 8 and 10 days, respectively of start, full and end of flowering dates. The advance of the recorded flowering time in this period is to ascribe mainly to the increase of mean temperature and above all to that registered in months of May and June.