DNA sequence polymorphism and divergence at the erect wing and suppressor of sable loci of Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans

Several evolutionary models of linked selection (e.g., genetic hitchhiking, background selection, and random environment) predict a reduction in polymorphism relative to divergence in genomic regions where the rate of crossing over per physical distance is restricted. We tested this prediction near the telomere of the Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans X chromosome at two loci, erect wing (ewg) and suppressor of sable [su(s)]. Consistent with this prediction, polymorphism is reduced at both loci, while divergence is normal. The reduction is greater at ewg, the more distal of the two regions. Two models can be discriminated by comparing the observed site frequency spectra with those predicted by the models. The hitchhiking model predicts a skew toward rare variants in a sample, while the spectra under the background-selection model are similar to those of the neutral model of molecular evolution. Statistical tests of the fit to the predictions of these models require many sampled alleles and segregating sites. Thus we used SSCP and stratified DNA sequencing to cover a large number of randomly sampled alleles (approximately 50) from each of three populations. The result is a clear trend toward negative values of Tajima's D, indicating an excess of rare variants at ewg, the more distal of the two loci. One fixed difference among the populations and high FST values indicate strong population subdivision among the three populations at ewg. These results indicate genetic hitchhiking at ewg, in particular, geographically localized hitchhiking events within Africa. The reduction of polymorphism at su(s) combined with the excess of high-frequency variants in D. simulans is inconsistent with the hitchhiking and background-selection models.     

Evolution at the tip and base of the X chromosome in an African population of Drosophila melanogaster

Hitchhiking effects of advantageous mutations have been invoked to explain reduced polymorphism in regions of low crossing-over in Drosophila. Besides reducing DNA heterozygosity, hitchhiking effects should produce strong linkage disequilibrium and a frequency spectrum skewed toward an excess of rare polymorphisms (compared to the neutral expectation). We measured DNA polymorphism in a Zimbabwe population of D. melanogaster at three loci, yellow, achaete, and suppressor of forked, located in regions of reduced crossing-over. Similar to previously published surveys of these genomic regions in other populations, we observed low levels of nucleotide variability. However, the frequency spectrum was compatible with a neutral model, and there was abundant evidence for recombination in the history of the yellow and ac genes. Thus, some aspects of the data cannot be accounted for by a simple hitchhiking model. An alternative hypothesis, background selection, might be compatible with the observed patterns of linkage disequilibrium and the frequency spectrum. However, this model cannot account for the observed reduction in nucleotide heterozygosity. Thus, there is currently no satisfactory theoretical model for the data from the tip and base of the X chromosome in D. melanogaster.      

Regions of lower crossing over harbor more rare variants in African populations of Drosophila melanogaster

A correlation between diversity levels and rates of recombination is predicted both by models of positive selection, such as hitchhiking associated with the rapid fixation of advantageous mutations, and by models of purifying selection against strongly deleterious mutations (commonly referred to as "background selection"). With parameter values appropriate for Drosophila populations, only the first class of models predicts a marked skew in the frequency spectrum of linked neutral variants, relative to a neutral model. Here, we consider 29 loci scattered throughout the Drosophila melanogaster genome. We show that, in African populations, a summary of the frequency spectrum of polymorphic mutations is positively correlated with the meiotic rate of crossing over. This pattern is demonstrated to be unlikely under a model of background selection. Models of weakly deleterious selection are not expected to produce both the observed correlation and the extent to which nucleotide diversity is reduced in regions of low (but nonzero) recombination. Thus, of existing models, hitchhiking due to the recurrent fixation of advantageous variants is the most plausible explanation for the data.     

Multilocus patterns of nucleotide diversity, linkage disequilibrium and demographic history of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst

DNA polymorphism at 22 loci was studied in an average of 47 Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] haplotypes sampled in seven populations representative of the natural range. The overall nucleotide variation was limited, being lower than that observed in most plant species so far studied. Linkage disequilibrium was also restricted and did not extend beyond a few hundred base pairs. All populations, with the exception of the Romanian population, could be divided into two main domains, a Baltico-Nordic and an Alpine one. Mean Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H across loci were both negative, indicating the presence of an excess of both rare and high-frequency-derived variants compared to the expected frequency spectrum in a standard neutral model. Multilocus neutrality tests based on D and H led to the rejection of the standard neutral model and exponential growth in the whole population as well as in the two main domains. On the other hand, in all three cases the data are compatible with a severe bottleneck occurring some hundreds of thousands of years ago. Hence, demographic departures from equilibrium expectations and population structure will have to be accounted for when detecting selection at candidate genes and in association mapping studies, respectively.     

Molecular population genetics of sequence length diversity in the Adh region of Drosophila pseudoobscura

Positive and negative selection on indel variation may explain the correlation between intron length and recombination levels in natural populations of Drosophila. A nucleotide sequence analysis of the 3.5 kilobase sequence of the alcohol dehydrogenase (Adh) region from 139 Drosophila pseudoobscura strains and one D. miranda strain was used to determine whether positive or negative selection acts on indel variation in a gene that experiences high levels of recombination. A total of 30 deletion and 36 insertion polymorphisms were segregating within D. pseudoobscura populations and no indels were fixed between D. pseudoobscura and its two sibling species D. miranda and D. persimilis. The ratio of Tajima's D to its theoretical minimum value (D(min)) was proposed as a metric to assess the heterogeneity in D among D. pseudoobscura loci when the number of segregating sites differs among loci. The magnitude of the D/D(min) ratio was found to increase as the rate of population expansion increases, allowing one to assess which loci have an excess of rare variants due to population expansion versus purifying selection. D. pseudoobscura populations appear to have had modest increases in size accounting for some of the observed excess of rare variants. The D/D(min) ratio rejected a neutral model for deletion polymorphisms. Linkage disequilibrium among pairs of indels was greater than between pairs of segregating nucleotides. These results suggest that purifying selection removes deletion variation from intron sequences, but not insertion polymorphisms. Genome rearrangement and size-dependent intron evolution are proposed as mechanisms that limit runaway intron expansion.     

Contrasting patterns of nucleotide polymorphism at the alcohol dehydrogenase locus in the outcrossing Arabidopsis lyrata and the selfing Arabidopsis thaliana

Nucleotide variation at the alcohol dehydrogenase locus (Adh) was studied in the outcrossing Arabidopsis lyrata, a close relative of the selfing Arabidopsis thaliana. Overall, estimated nucleotide diversity in the North American ssp. lyrata and two European ssp. petraea populations was 0.0038, lower than the corresponding specieswide estimate for A. thaliana at the same set of nucleotide sites. The distribution of segregating sites across the gene differed between the two species. Estimated sequence diversity within an A. lyrata population with a large sample size (0.0023) was much higher than has previously been observed for A. thaliana. This North American population has an excess of sites at intermediate frequencies compared with neutral expectation (Tajima's D = 2.3, P < 0.005), suggestive of linked balancing selection or a recent population bottleneck. In contrast, an excess of rare polymorphisms has been found in A. thaliana. Polymorphism within A. lyrata and divergence from A. thaliana appear to be correlated across the Adh gene sequence. The geographic distribution of polymorphism was quite different from that of A. thaliana, for which earlier studies of several genes found low within-population nucleotide site polymorphism and no overall continental differentiation of variation despite large differences in site frequencies between local populations. Differences between the outcrossing A. lyrata and the selfing A. thaliana reflect the impact of differences in mating system and the influence of bottlenecks in A. thaliana during rapid colonization on DNA sequence polymorphism. The influence of additional variability-reducing mechanisms, such as background selection or hitchhiking, may not be discernible.     

Linkage disequilibria and the site frequency spectra in the su(s) and su(w(a)) regions of the Drosophila melanogaster X chromosome

Over the last decade, surveys of DNA sequence variation in natural populations of several Drosophila species and other taxa have established that polymorphism is reduced in genomic regions characterized by low rates of crossing over per physical length. Parallel studies have also established that divergence between species is not reduced in these same genomic regions, thus eliminating explanations that rely on a correlation between the rates of mutation and crossing over. Several theoretical models (directional hitchhiking, background selection, and random environment) have been proposed as population genetic explanations. In this study samples from an African population (n = 50) and a European population (n = 51) were surveyed at the su(s) (1955 bp) and su(w(a)) (3213 bp) loci for DNA sequence polymorphism, utilizing a stratified SSCP/DNA sequencing protocol. These loci are located near the telomere of the X chromosome, in a region of reduced crossing over per physical length, and exhibit a significant reduction in DNA sequence polymorphism. Unlike most previously surveyed, these loci reveal substantial skews toward rare site frequencies, consistent with the predictions of directional hitchhiking and random environment models and inconsistent with the general predictions of the background selection model (or neutral theory). No evidence for excess geographic differentiation at these loci is observed. Although linkage disequilibrium is observed between closely linked sites within these loci, many recombination events in the genealogy of the sampled alleles can be inferred and the genomic scale of linkage disequilibrium, measured in base pairs between sites, is the same as that observed for loci in regions of normal crossing over. We conclude that gene conversion must be high in these regions of low crossing over.     

Evidence of gene conversion associated with a selective sweep in Drosophila melanogaster

Since Drosophila melanogaster colonized Europe from tropical Africa 10 to 15 thousand years ago, it is expected that adaptation has played a major role in this species in recent times. A previously conducted multilocus scan of noncoding DNA sequences on the X chromosome in an ancestral and a derived population of D. melanogaster revealed that some loci have been affected by directional selection in the European population. We investigated if the pattern of DNA sequence polymorphism in a region surrounding one of these loci can be explained by a hitchhiking event. We found strong evidence that the studied region around the gene unc-119 was shaped by a recent selective sweep, including a valley of reduced heterozygosity of 83.4 kb, a skew in the frequency spectrum, and significant linkage disequilibrium on one side of the valley. This region, however, was interrupted by gene conversion events leading to a strong haplotype structure in the center of the valley of reduced variation.     

Balancing selection at a frog antimicrobial peptide locus: fluctuating immune effector alleles?

Balancing selection is common on many defense genes, but it has rarely been reported for immune effector proteins such as antimicrobial peptides (AMPs). We describe genetic diversity at a brevinin-1 AMP locus in three species of leopard frogs (Rana pipiens, Rana blairi, and Rana palustris). Several highly divergent allelic lineages are segregating at this locus. That this unusual pattern results from balancing selection is demonstrated by multiple lines of evidence, including a ratio of nonsynonymous/synonymous polymorphism significantly higher than 1, the ZnS test, incongruence between the number of segregating sites and haplotype diversity, and significant Tajima's D values. Our data are more consistent with a model of fluctuating selection in which alleles change frequencies over time than with a model of stable balancing selection such as overdominance. Evidence for fluctuating selection includes skewed allele frequencies, low levels of synonymous variation, nonneutral values of Tajima's D within allelic lineages, an inverse relationship between the frequency of an allelic lineage and its degree of polymorphism, and divergent allele frequencies among populations. AMP loci could be important sites of adaptive genetic diversity, with consequences for host-pathogen coevolution and the ability of species to resist disease epidemics.     

A multilocus sequence survey in Arabidopsis thaliana reveals a genome-wide departure from a neutral model of DNA sequence polymorphism

The simultaneous analysis of multiple genomic loci is a powerful approach to studying the effects of population history and natural selection on patterns of genetic variation of a species. By surveying nucleotide sequence polymorphism at 334 randomly distributed genomic regions in 12 accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana, we examined whether a standard neutral model of nucleotide sequence polymorphism is consistent with observed data. The average nucleotide diversity was 0.0071 for total sites and 0.0083 for silent sites. Although levels of diversity are variable among loci, no correlation with local recombination rate was observed, but polymorphism levels were correlated for physically linked loci (<250 kb). We found that observed distributions of Tajima's D- and D/D(min)- and of Fu and Li's D-, D*- and F-, F*-statistics differed significantly from the expected distributions under a standard neutral model due to an excess of rare polymorphisms and high variances. Observed and expected distributions of Fay and Wu's H were not different, suggesting that demographic processes and not selection at multiple loci are responsible for the deviation from a neutral model. Maximum-likelihood comparisons of alternative demographic models like logistic population growth, glacial refugia, or past bottlenecks did not produce parameter estimates that were more consistent with observed patterns. However, exclusion of highly polymorphic "outlier loci" resulted in a fit to the logistic growth model. Various tests of neutrality revealed a set of candidate loci that may evolve under selection.     

The neutral coalescent process for recent gene duplications and copy-number variants

I describe a method for simulating samples from gene families of size two under a neutral coalescent process, for the case where the duplicate gene either has fixed recently in the population or is still segregating. When a duplicate locus has recently fixed by genetic drift, diversity in the new gene is expected to be reduced, and an excess of rare alleles is expected, relative to the predictions of the standard coalescent model. The expected patterns of polymorphism in segregating duplicates ("copy-number variants") depend both on the frequency of the duplicate in the sample and on the rate of crossing over between the two loci. When the crossover rate between the ancestral gene and the copy-number variant is low, the expected pattern of variability in the ancestral gene will be similar to the predictions of models of either balancing or positive selection, if the frequency of the duplicate in the sample is intermediate or high, respectively. Simulations are used to investigate the effect of crossing over between loci, and gene conversion between the duplicate loci, on levels of variability and the site-frequency spectrum.     

Excess amino acid polymorphism in mitochondrial DNA: contrasts among genes from Drosophila, mice, and humans

Recent studies of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in mammals and Drosophila have shown an excess of amino acid variation within species (replacement polymorphism) relative to the number of silent and replacement differences fixed between species. To examine further this pattern of nonneutral mtDNA evolution, we present sequence data for the ND3 and ND5 genes from 59 lines of Drosophila melanogaster and 29 lines of D. simulans. Of interest are the frequency spectra of silent and replacement polymorphisms, and potential variation among genes and taxa in the departures from neutral expectations. The Drosophila ND3 and ND5 data show no significant excess of replacement polymorphism using the McDonald-Kreitman test. These data are in contrast to significant departures from neutrality for the ND3 gene in mammals and other genes in Drosophila mtDNA (cytochrome b and ATPase 6). Pooled across genes, however, both Drosophila and human mtDNA show very significant excesses of amino acid polymorphism. Silent polymorphisms at ND5 show a significantly higher variance in frequency than replacement polymorphisms, and the latter show a significant skew toward low frequencies (Tajima's D = -1.954). These patterns are interpreted in light of the nearly neutral theory where mildly deleterious amino acid haplotypes are observed as ephemeral variants within species but do not contribute to divergence. The patterns of polymorphism and divergence at charge-altering amino acid sites are presented for the Drosophila ND5 gene to examine the evolution of functionally distinct mutations. Excess charge-altering polymorphism is observed at the carboxyl terminal and excess charge-altering divergence is detected at the amino terminal. While the mildly deleterious model fits as a net effect in the evolution of nonrecombining mitochondrial genomes, these data suggest that opposing evolutionary pressures may act on different regions of mitochondrial genes and genomes.      

Selection versus demography: a multilocus investigation of the domestication process in maize

The domestication of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) from its wild ancestor (Zea mays ssp. parviglumis) led to a loss of genetic diversity both through a population bottleneck and through directional selection at agronomically important genes. In order to discriminate between those effects and to investigate the nature of the domestication bottleneck, we analyzed nucleotide diversity data from 12 chromosome 1 loci in parviglumis. We found an average loss of nucleotide diversity of 38% across genes, but this average was skewed downward by four putatively selected loci (tb1, d8, ts2, and zagl1). To better understand the domestication process, we used the coalescent with recombination to simulate bottlenecks under various lengths and population sizes. For each locus, we determine the likelihood of the observed data using three summary statistics: the number of segregating sites, an estimate of the population recombination parameter, and Tajima's D. Based on the eight neutrally evolving loci, a model with a bottleneck had a significantly higher likelihood than a model without one. The four putatively selected loci had significantly different likelihood optimums than the neutral loci, and this approach confirmed that ts2 and d8 were selected either during domestication or breeding. Overall, the best-fitting models had a bottleneck in which the population size and the bottleneck duration had a ratio of approximately 4- to approximately 5; for example, if the initial domestication event occurred over a 500-year period, the population size was roughly 2,000 to 2,500 individuals. However, this range did vary with the summary statistic used to assess the fit of simulations to data. In this context, Tajima's D performed poorly as a goodness-of-fit statistic, probably because Z. mays ssp. parviglumis has a frequency spectrum that is significantly skewed toward low-frequency variants. Finally, we found that demography is unlikely to account for the previously observed positive correlation between nucleotide diversity and the population-recombination parameter in maize, leaving this observation difficult to interpret.     

Natural selection at linked sites in humans

Theoretical and empirical work indicates that patterns of neutral polymorphism can be affected by linked, selected mutations. Under background selection, deleterious mutations removed from a population by purifying selection cause a reduction in linked neutral diversity. Under genetic hitchhiking, the rise in frequency and fixation of beneficial mutations also reduces the level of linked neutral polymorphism. Here we review the evidence that levels of neutral polymorphism in humans are affected by selection at linked sites. We then discuss four approaches for distinguishing between background selection and genetic hitchhiking based on (i) the relationship between polymorphism level and recombination rate for neutral loci with high mutation rates, (ii) relative levels of variation on the X chromosome and the autosomes, (iii) the frequency distribution of neutral polymorphisms, and (iv) population-specific patterns of genetic variation. Although the evidence for selection at linked sites in humans is clear, current methods and data do not allow us to clearly assess the relative importance of background selection and genetic hitchhiking in humans. These results contrast with those obtained for Drosophila, where the signals of positive selection are stronger.     

Polymorphism and divergence at the prune locus in Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans

The prune locus of Drosophila melanogaster lies at the tip of the X chromosome, in a region of reduced recombination in which nearby loci show reduced variation relative to evolutionary divergence from D. simulans. DNA sequencing of prune alleles from D. melanogaster and D. simulans reveals extremely low variation in D. melanogaster but greater variation in D. simulans. Divergence between the two species is not reduced. This pattern may be explained by either positive selection leading to hitchhiking of neutral variation or background selection against deleterious mutations. The pattern of silent versus replacement polymorphism and divergence at prune is consistent with either a model of weakly deleterious selection against amino acid substitutions or balancing selection.      

Intraspecific nuclear DNA variation in Drosophila

We have summarized and analyzed all available nuclear DNA sequence polymorphism studies for three species of Drosophila, D. melanogaster (24 loci), D. simulans (12 loci), and D. pseudoobscura (5 loci). Our major findings are: (1) The average nucleotide heterozygosity ranges from about 0.4% to 2% depending upon species and function of the region, i.e., coding or noncoding. (2) Compared to D. simulans and D. pseudoobscura (which are about equally variable), D. melanogaster displays a low degree of DNA polymorphism. (3) Noncoding introns and 3' and 5' flanking DNA shows less polymorphism than silent sites within coding DNA. (4) X-linked genes are less variable than autosomal genes. (5) Transition (Ts) and transversion (Tv) polymorphisms are about equally frequent in non-coding DNA and at fourfold degenerate sites in coding DNA while Ts polymorphisms outnumber Tv polymorphisms by about 2:1 in total coding DNA. The increased Ts polymorphism in coding regions is likely due to the structure of the genetic code: silent changes are more often Ts's than are replacement substitutions. (6) The proportion of replacement polymorphisms is significantly higher in D. melanogaster than in D. simulans. (7) The level of variation in coding DNA and the adjacent noncoding DNA is significantly correlated indicating regional effects, most notably recombination. (8) Surprisingly, the level of polymorphism at silent coding sites in D. melanogaster is positively correlated with degree of codon usage bias. (9) Three proposed tests of the neutral theory of DNA polymorphisms have been performed on the data: Tajima's test, the HKA test, and the McDonald-Kreitman test. About half of the loci fail to conform to the expectations of neutral theory by one of the tests. We conclude that many variables are affecting levels of DNA polymorphism in Drosophila, from properties of nucleotides to population history and, perhaps, mating structure. No simple, all encompassing explanation satisfactorily accounts for the data.      

Detecting a local signature of genetic hitchhiking along a recombining chromosome

The theory of genetic hitchhiking predicts that the level of genetic variation is greatly reduced at the site of strong directional selection and increases as the recombinational distance from the site of selection increases. This characteristic pattern can be used to detect recent directional selection on the basis of DNA polymorphism data. However, the large variance of nucleotide diversity in samples of moderate size imposes difficulties in detecting such patterns. We investigated the patterns of genetic variation along a recombining chromosome by constructing ancestral recombination graphs that are modified to incorporate the effect of genetic hitchhiking. A statistical method is proposed to test the significance of a local reduction of variation and a skew of the frequency spectrum caused by a hitchhiking event. This method also allows us to estimate the strength and the location of directional selection from DNA sequence data.     

Selection, recombination and demographic history in Drosophila miranda

Selection, recombination, and the demographic history of a species can all have profound effects on genomewide patterns of variability. To assess the impact of these forces in the genome of Drosophila miranda, we examine polymorphism and divergence patterns at 62 loci scattered across the genome. In accordance with recent findings in D. melanogaster, we find that noncoding DNA generally evolves more slowly than synonymous sites, that the distribution of polymorphism frequencies in noncoding DNA is significantly skewed toward rare variants relative to synonymous sites, and that long introns evolve significantly slower than short introns or synonymous sites. These observations suggest that most noncoding DNA is functionally constrained and evolving under purifying selection. However, in contrast to findings in the D. melanogaster species group, we find little evidence of adaptive evolution acting on either coding or noncoding sequences in D. miranda. Levels of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in D. miranda are comparable to those observed in D. melanogaster, but vary considerably among chromosomes. These patterns suggest a significantly lower rate of recombination on autosomes, possibly due to the presence of polymorphic autosomal inversions and/or differences in chromosome sizes. All chromosomes show significant departures from the standard neutral model, including too much heterogeneity in synonymous site polymorphism relative to divergence among loci and a general excess of rare synonymous polymorphisms. These departures from neutral equilibrium expectations are discussed in the context of nonequilibrium models of demography and selection.     

Influence of finite-sites mutation, population subdivision and sampling schemes on patterns of nucleotide polymorphism for species with molecular hyperdiversity

Molecular hyperdiversity has been documented in viruses, prokaryotes and eukaryotes. Such organisms undermine the assumptions of the infinite-sites mutational model, because multiple mutational events at a site comprise a non-negligible portion of polymorphisms. Moreover, different sampling schemes of individuals from species with subdivided populations can profoundly influence resulting patterns and interpretations of molecular variation. Inspired by molecular hyperdiversity in the nematode Caenorhabditis sp. 5, which exhibits average pairwise differences among synonymous sites of >5% as well as modest population structure, we investigated via coalescent simulation the joint effects of a finite-sites mutation (FSM) process and population subdivision on the variant frequency spectrum. From many demes interconnected through a stepping-stone migration model, we constructed local samples from a single deme, pooled samples from several demes and scattered samples of a single individual from numerous demes. Compared with a single panmictic population at equilibrium, we find that high population mutation rates induce a deficit of rare variants (positive Tajima's D) under a FSM model. Population structure also induces such a skew for local samples when migration is high and for pooled samples when migration is low. Contrasts of sampling schemes for C. sp. 5 imply high mutational input coupled with high migration. We propose that joint analysis of local, pooled and scattered samples for species with subdivided populations provides a means of improving inference of demographic history, by virtue of the partially distinct patterns of polymorphism that manifest when sequences are analyzed according to differing sampling schemes.     

Positive and negative selection on noncoding DNA in Drosophila simulans

There is now a wealth of evidence that some of the most important regions of the genome are found outside those that encode proteins, and noncoding regions of the genome have been shown to be subject to substantial levels of selective constraint, particularly in Drosophila. Recent work has suggested that these regions may also have been subject to the action of positive selection, with large fractions of noncoding divergence having been driven to fixation by adaptive evolution. However, this work has focused on Drosophila melanogaster, which is thought to have experienced a reduction in effective population size (N(e)), and thus a reduction in the efficacy of selection, compared with its closest relative Drosophila simulans. Here, we examine patterns of evolution at several classes of noncoding DNA in D. simulans and find that all noncoding DNA is subject to the action of negative selection, indicated by reduced levels of polymorphism and divergence and a skew in the frequency spectrum toward rare variants. We find that the signature of negative selection on noncoding DNA and nonsynonymous sites is obscured to some extent by purifying selection acting on preferred to unpreferred synonymous codon mutations. We investigate the extent to which divergence in noncoding DNA is inferred to be the product of positive selection and to what extent these inferences depend on selection on synonymous sites and demography. Based on patterns of polymorphism and divergence for different classes of synonymous substitution, we find the divergence excess inferred in noncoding DNA and nonsynonymous sites in the D. simulans lineage difficult to reconcile with demographic explanations.