1961—2010年中国植被区的气候与林火动态变化

气候、植被和人为活动的变化影响到区域的林火动态．基于生态地理区研究全国尺度上林火动态的变化是科学林火管理的基础．根据中国地面气候资料日值数据,把1961—2010年气温和降水两个气象要素差值到网格点（空间分辨率0.25°×0.25°）,分析中国8个生态地理区森林分布区域的火险期气温和降水量变化,采用Mann-Kendall法分析气候和火动态的变化趋势．结果表明： 1961—2010年,中国森林分布区的平均气温呈现线性上升趋势,但降水量变化趋势不显著,所有生态地理区的火险期平均气温显著增加,中温带半干旱/干旱地区草原区增温最显著,而大部分区域的火险期降水量变化不明显.研究区火灾次数呈现明显的波动性,受害森林面积显著下降.除中温带干旱地区荒漠针叶林区的火灾次数和受害森林面积呈现显著的增加趋势外,其他生态地理区都表现为双峰型变化曲线.     

基于NBR指数分析大兴安岭呼中森林过火区的林火烈度

基于TM影像和3S技术手段,利用NBR指数对1986—2010年大兴安岭呼中林区森林过火区林火烈度进行了定量评价,分析了林火烈度与植被类型、海拔、坡度和坡向等环境因子的关系.结果表明:呼中林区的林火发生次数和面积年际变化明显,每年6—8月是林火的高发期,重度火烧区占总过火面积的84.2%.过火区中,兴安落叶松林占89.9%;海拔1000～1500m区域占68.8%;东、南、西、北4个坡向的过火面积占62.5%,阴、阳坡过火面积差异不明显;坡度15～25°的斜坡区域过火面积占38.4%.不同程度林火烈度的过火面积由大到小依次为重度火>中度火>轻度火>未过火,其中,重度火过火面积>70%,中度火过火面积在10%左右,轻度火和未过火的过火面积<5%.呼中林区林火烈度以重度火为主,对森林资源的破坏程度极大.在大兴安岭林区的林火管理中,应尽早开展森林可燃物处理工作,以降低林火烈度,保障森林生态系统的安全.     

基于GIS与RS的山东森林火险因子及火险区划

森林火灾是山东森林地区严重的环境问题之一。本研究采用山东2001—2010年MOD14A1每日1 km温度异常/火L3级产品与地形、植被、天气、人为和可访问性数据,分析评估了火灾发生原因;收集了林火发生/未发生相关的15个解释变量的空间数据,利用二项Logistic回归模型估计了解释变量的函数与林火存在的概率。结果表明,高火险区域主要集中在黄河三角洲、鲁西北平原,包括德州、菏泽、济宁、枣庄南部、临沂东南部;中火险主要在聊城、滨州、济南北部、淄博北部、潍坊东部、泰安、日照和青岛大部分地区(包括蒙山林区、沂山林区、五莲山林区、徂徕山林区、尼山林区、泰莱林区);低火险主要集中在济南南部、淄博南部、莱芜、青岛南部和胶东半岛(包括济南林区、崂山林区、鲁山林区、昆嵛山林区、牙山林区)。Logistic回归结果表明,影响火灾发生的因素依次是年均温度、CTI、TPI、人口密度、植被类型、年降水量、植被盖度、距道路距离、坡向、距居民地距离、农民纯收入指数、坡度、年平均相对湿度、DEM、年蒸发量。其中前7个EXP(B)都1,对森林火灾发生的与否贡献较大。这些结果作为战略规划工具来更好预测森林火灾,也可作为一种战术指南帮助森林管理人员设计区域防火措施。     

1982-2016年东北黑土区植被NDVI动态及其对气候变化的响应

植被是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在调节气候、水土保持等方面具有重要作用,因此,监测植被生长变化并探讨其与气候变化之间的关系,在全球变化研究中具有重要意义。基于MODIS NDVI和GIMMS NDVI数据集,并通过一致性检验,在区域和像元两个空间尺度上,利用一元线性回归模型,研究东北黑土区1982-2016年植被生长动态,分析植被生长对气温和降水量的响应程度。结果表明：区域尺度上,1982-2016年东北黑土区植被生长季NDVI变化分为3个阶段（先增加继而减少最后再增加）,区域植被的生长在气温、降水量的共同作用下,呈现出明显季节差异;像元尺度上,1982-2016年东北黑土区NDVI总体趋势为改善状态,主要改善植被类型为草原、森林和农业植被,鹤岗市、绥化市和长春市改善面积较大;多年平均NDVI值与同期气温和降水量具有一定的相关关系,平原地区植被NDVI与气温主要呈显著正相关关系,植被类型主要为耕地;平原地区边缘和山地地区的植被NDVI与降水量以显著正相关关系为主,主要植被类型为森林和草地。     

西双版纳地区主要森林植被乔木多样性的时间变化

为了评估云南省西双版纳森林植被乔木多样性的时间变化,该研究通过样方调查收集了该地区4种主要森林植被(热带雨林、热带季节性湿润林、热带山地常绿阔叶林和暖热性针叶林)乔木多样性数据,结合遥感影像提取了该地区4种森林植被在1992年、2000年、2009年和2016年4个时期的分布,用Simpson、Shannon-Wiener和Scaling物种多样性指数对比4种森林植被乔木均匀度差异,并利用Scaling生态多样性指数和灰色关联评价模型,评估该地区在4个时期的森林乔木多样性的时间变化。结果表明:(1)森林面积比例变化有先减少后增加的趋势,表现为由1992年的65.5%减少至2000年的53.42%,减少到2009年的52.49%,再增至2016年的54.73%,但热带雨林呈现持续减少的趋势。(2) 4种森林植被对乔木多样性的贡献有明显差异,均匀度排序是热带雨林>热带山地(低山)常绿阔叶林>暖热性针叶林>热带季节性湿润林,丰富度排序是热带雨林>热带山地(低山)常绿阔叶林>热带季节性湿润林>暖热性针叶林,对乔木多样性贡献的排序是热带雨林>热带山地(低山)常绿阔叶林>热带季节性湿润林>暖热性针叶林。(3)热带雨林和热带季节性湿润林乔木多样性呈现持续减少趋势,4个时期西双版纳森林植被乔木多样性排序为1992年>2009年> 2016年> 2000年。以上结果表明经济活动是影响西双版纳生物多样性的重要原因,保护热带雨林对维持该地区生物多样性具有重要意义。     

1957-2007年云南省森林火险变化

当前以变暖为主要特征的气候变化已对全球林火的发生产生重要影响.本文基于日气象数据(气温、降水量、空气相对湿度、风速),按照加拿大火险天气指数的计算方法,计算了云南省1957-2007年间每日的森林火险天气指数,分析了该省50年来森林火险的变化趋势.结果表明:云南省的火险期为上年11月至当年6月,持续期约8个月;林火数据(林火数量、过火面积和受害森林面积)与火险天气指数的相关性显著,半腐层湿度码(DMC)的火险期平均值和火险期严峻度(SSR)可作为不同火险期火险状况比较的良好指标.1957-2007年云南省森林火险状况呈现2种变化趋势:1)总体上周期性变化趋势明显,在周期性变化的同时呈上升趋势,表现为1991-2007年的火险状况比1961-1990年的火险状况略有升高;2)1991-2007年各火险期火险状况的波动性下降,火险状况异常严峻的火险期数量比1961-1990年减少.

Abstract：

Climate warming has already made great impact on forest fires. Based on the daily me-teorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed), and by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index calculation formula, the daily forest fire weather indices (FWIs) of Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 were calculated, and through the statistical analysis of FWIs, the forest fire trends in this province over the past 50 years were studied. In the past 50 years, the forest fire season in Yunnan Province was from previous year November to current year June, lasting 8 months. Fire data (fire numbers, burned area, and burned forest area) had sig-nificant relationships with fire weather indices. The average daily duff moisture code (DMC) in whole fire season and the seasonal severity rating (SSR) were the good indices to evaluate the fire danger conditions among different fire seasons. The forest fire danger in Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 showed two change trends. One showed a clear cyclical change and a weak upward trend, i. e. , the fire danger conditions in 1991-2007 was slightly severer than that in 1961-1990 ; and the another was that the fluctuation of forest fire danger conditions among different fire seasons decreased in 1991-2007, and the number of abnormal severe fire seasons was less than that in 1961-1990.     

海南岛尖峰岭林区近50 年气候突变、异常及变化周期的初步研究

作为中国典型的热带森林生态系统之一, 海南尖峰岭热带森林长期的气候动态变化对于评价气候变化对森林的影响的有着重要的作用。研究采用海南尖峰岭森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站尖峰气象观测场1957-2006年的地面常规气象观测资料, 利用累积距平法和Mann-Kendall 检验法以及小波分析法分析了尖峰岭林区气候突变和气候异常以及变化周期特征, 结果表明: 该区近50 年的年平均气温、年平均地温、年平均最低气温在1978 年左右发生了一次由低到高的突变; 平均最高气温、年平均相对湿度和平均水汽压在1988 年左右都发生了一次由低到高的突变; 年蒸发量在1988-1990 年经历由大到小的突变。在1998 年高强度ENSO 事件发生的年份, 气温和地温均出现异常偏高, 表明该林区的气候变化正是对全球气候异常的一次明显响应过程。Morlet 小波分析表明尖峰岭林区气候变化主要存在10~25 年的周期。     

基于ArcGIS的福建南部地区林火管理资源分布优化

研究基于逻辑斯蒂回归和Arc GIS,以2000—2010年该地区火点数据为基础,结合气候、植被、地形及人口和社会经济数据,对厦门、漳州和泉州等福建南部地区主要森林城市进行森林火险等级划分。在此基础上,应用不同方法对研究区域进行防火瞭望塔选址分析并加以比较,同时根据火险区划结果,综合考虑高火险区域、公路以及居民点的距离等因素进行林火扑救区规划,实现对研究区域森林火灾的管理区划。结果表明:高程、坡度、日最小相对湿度、距离铁路的距离、距离公路的距离、距离居民点的距离、日最高地表气温、日最低地表气温、日降水量、日照时数、日最高气温和GDP等12个因素与林火的发生存在显著相关,且模型的预测准确率达到74.0%。利用该模型进行火险等级区划,发现该地区高火险面积约占33.58%,且分布不均。防火瞭望塔选址的研究结果显示,传统方法、构建20 km×20 km网格和10 km×10 km网格,对于高火险区域的瞭望可见率分别为25.63%、42.25%和63.38%。利用层次分析法对林火扑救区划分的结果显示,到高火险地区距离、到公路距离和到居民点距离的权重分别为0.620、0.284和0.096,通过Arc GIS加权叠加得到相应的扑救区优化图。研究结果可为我国南方山地区域林火预防与管理工作提供一定的支持。     

基于MODIS的中国野火时空分布格局

野火是自然生态系统中重要的干扰因子,在维持生态系统多样性的同时,也对自然生态系统和人民的生命和财产构成重大威胁,野火时空分布格局研究有助于理解野火的发生规律,从而为野火的科学管理提供依据。本文基于MODIS火产品数据(2006—2012年),借助地理信息系统、遥感技术和SPSS统计软件,分析了中国野火的时空分布格局。结果表明:2006—2012年中国野火年过火面积呈下降趋势,年际变化波动较大,对年过火面积变化贡献率较大的省份主要分布在华南地区、西南地区和西北地区;中国野火过火面积月变化明显,其中3月过火面积最大,对月过火面积变化贡献率较大的是南方地区、西南地区、西北地区和东北地区;野火的发生和环境因子有密切关系为在丘陵地区、年降水量在400~800 mm的区域、年平均气温在0~10℃地区和针叶林中最易发生野火。本研究可为中国野火的火险区划和管理提供科学依据。     

气候变化背景下黑龙江大兴安岭林区夏季火险变化趋势

采用Delta、WGEN降尺度方法和加拿大森林火险天气指标,分析了1966-2010年黑龙江大兴安岭林区夏季火灾变化特征,预估了2010-2099年夏季森林火险变化趋势,分析了夏季森林火灾与春、秋季森林火灾的差异,并提出了基于火环境的夏季森林火灾防控策略.结果表明:气候变暖背景下,2000-2010年研究区夏季森林火灾呈高发态势.在可预期的未来,2010-2099年研究区夏季森林火险比基准年(1961-1990年)增加34％,增幅大于春、秋季森林火险.A2a和B2a情景下,2010-2099年研究区夏季森林火险相对于基准年均呈升高趋势,且随着时间递推,森林火险增加的区域不断变广,增加的比重不断加大.到21世纪末,A2a情景下夏季森林火险与基准年相比增加近一倍,夏季高森林火险地区将贯穿整个研究区.夏季森林火灾在火源特点、森林可燃物属性和森林火险天气情况等方面都有别于春、秋季森林火灾,研究区应严管火源,严控可燃物载量,严抓中长期森林火险预报,以控制夏季森林火灾.     

Inter-hemispheric comparison of fire history: The Colorado Front Range,U.S.A., and the Northern Patagonian Andes,Argentina

Fire history was compared between the Colorado Front Range (U.S.A.) and northern Patagonia (Argentina) by dating fire-scars on 525 Pinus ponderosa and 418 Austrocedrus chilensis, respectively, and determining fire weather on the basis of instrumental and tree-ring proxy records of climatic variation. Years of above average moisture availability preceding fire years, rather than drought alone, is conducive to years of widespread fire in the Colorado Front Range and the northern Patagonian study areas. Above-average precipitation promotes fire by enhancing the growth of herbaceous plants which increases the quantity of fine fuels during the fire season a few years later. The short-term variability in moisture availability that is conducive to widespread burning is strongly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during the spring in both regions which leads to peaks in fire occurrence several years after El Niño events. The warmer and drier springs associated with la Niña events exacerbate the drying of fuels so that fire years commonly coincide with La Niña events. In both regions, there was a dramatic decline in fire occurrence after the early 1900s due to a decline in intentionally set fires by Native Americans and European settlers, fuel reduction by livestock grazing, and increasingly effective organized fire suppression activities after the 1920s. In both regions there was a marked increase in fire frequency during the mid-and late-19th centuries which coincides with increased ignitions by Native Americans and/or European settlers. However, year-to-year variability in ring widths of Pinus ponderosa and Austrocedrus chilensis also increased from relatively low values in the late 1700s and early 1800s to peaks in the 1850s and 1860s. This implies frequent alternation of years of above and below average moisture availability during the mid-19th century when the frequencies of major fire years rise. The high correlation of tree-growth variability betweem the two regions implies a strong inter-hemispheric variation in climatic variability at a centennial time scale which closely parallels a variety of proxy records of ENSO activity. Based on the relationship of fire and ENSO events documented in the current study, this long-term trend in ENSO activity probably contributed to the mid- and late-19th century increase in fire spread in both regions. These similar trends in fire occurrence have contributed to similar patterns of forest structures, forest health, and current hazard of catastrophic wildfire in the Colorado Front Range and northern Patagonia.     

Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using both documentary records (1914–87 and 1938–96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past several centuries. The two regions share similar fire–climate relationships and similar relationships of climatic anomalies to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Niño events coincide with above-average cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. Conversely, La Niña events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching from El Niño to La Niña conditions. El Niño conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when desiccated by La Niña conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence in both regions from c. 1780–1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO–fire relationships of the south-western USA and northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes.     

Impacts of El Niño related drought and forest fires on sun bear fruit resources in lowland dipterocarp forest of East Borneo

Droughts and forest fires, induced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, have increased considerably over the last decades affecting millions of hectares of rainforest. We investigated the effects of the 1997–1998 forest fires and drought, associated with an exceptionally severe ENSO event, on fruit species important in the diet of Malayan sun bears (Helarctos malayanus) in lowland dipterocarp forest, East Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Densities of sun bear fruit trees (≥10 cm DBH) were reduced by ～80%, from 167±41 (SD) fruit trees ha^?1 in unburned forest to 37±18 fruit trees ha^?1 in burned forest. Densities of hemi-epiphytic figs, one of the main fallback resources for sun bears during periods of food scarcity, declined by 95% in burned forest. Species diversity of sun bear food trees decreased by 44% in burned forest. Drought also affected sun bear fruit trees in unburned primary forest, with elevated mortality rates for the duration of 2 years, returning to levels reported as normal in region in the third year after the ENSO event. Mortality in unburned forest near the burn-edge was higher (25±5% of trees ≥10 cm DBH dead) than in the forest interior (14±5% of trees), indicating possible edge effects. Combined effects of fire and drought in burned primary forest resulted in an overall tree mortality of 78±11% (≥10 cm DBH) 33 months after the fire event. Disturbance due to fires has resulted in a serious decline of fruit resources for sun bears and, due to the scale of fire damage, in a serious decline of prime sun bear habitat. Recovery of sun bear populations in these burned-over forests will depend on regeneration of the forest, its future species composition, and efforts to prevent subsequent fire events.     

Short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of Indonesian populations of the butterfly Drupadia theda in East Kalimantan

We investigated the short‐term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of the tropical butterfly Drupadia theda Felder (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Populations were sampled from five landscapes in East Kalimantan (Borneo, Indonesia) which were differentially disturbed by selective logging and the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐induced drought and fires. Sampling occurred before (in 1997) and after the forest fires (in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2004). Drupadia theda populations underwent serious population size reductions following the 1997/1998 ENSO event. For a total of 208 individuals, we sequenced a 509‐bp segment of mtDNA containing the control region plus the 5’ end of the 12S rDNA gene. Haplotype diversity in D. theda populations ranged from 0.468 to 0.953. Just after the 1997/1998 ENSO event, number of recorded individuals and genetic diversity were very low in D. theda populations sampled in the two severely burned areas and in a small pristine forest fragment that was surrounded by burned forest and thereby affected by drought. Interestingly, higher levels of genetic diversity were observed in logged forest compared to proximate pristine forest. After 1998, the genetic composition within the three ENSO‐disturbed areas diverged. In the twice‐burned forest, the genetic diversity in 1999 already approached pre‐fire levels, while it remained nearly unchanged in proximate once‐burned forest. Our data suggest that the 1997/1998 ENSO‐induced drought and fires caused massive reductions in the genetic diversity of D. theda and that population recoveries were linked to their geographical position relative to patches of unburned forest (and thus to source populations).     

Monitoring and predictive mapping of floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient in ENSO's terrestrial core region,NW Peru

The tropical dry forests of NW Peru are heavily shaped by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where especially El Niño brings rain to arid to semi-arid areas. However, the resulting effects on biodiversity patterns remain largely unknown as well as the effect of environmental variables on the floristic composition under varying rainfall patterns. Therefore, we studied the spatio-temporal effects of different ENSO episodes on floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient ranging from the coastal desert to the Andean foothills. We sampled 50 vegetation plots in four years representing different ENSO episodes. To highlight the spatio-temporal changes in floristic composition and beta diversity across ENSO episodes, we predicted ordination scores with a Generalized Additive Model. We applied variation partitioning to test if topographic or edaphic variables gained in importance during more humid ENSO episodes. Additionally, we executed an irrigation–fertilization experiment to quantify the beneficial effects of the water–nutrient interaction under different simulated ENSO rainfall scenarios. Plant species richness increased under humid conditions during the humid La Niña (2012) and the moderate El Niño (2016), and slightly decreased under the very humid conditions during the coastal El Niño (2017). The spatial prediction revealed that specific vegetation formations became more pronounced with increasing water input, but that a large water surplus led to the disruption of the strict order along the climatic gradient. Edaphic and topographic variables gained in importance with increased water availability (2012 and 2016), however, this effect was not further amplified under very wet conditions (2017). The experiment showed that plant cover under Super Niño conditions was three times higher when fertilized. Overall, our spatial predictions concede detailed insights into spatio-temporal ecosystem dynamics in response to varying rainfall caused by different ENSO episodes while the results of the experiment can support farmers regarding a sustainable agrarian management.     

不同区域森林火灾对生态因子的响应及其概率模型

火灾是影响森林生态系统过程的重要干扰之一,其对森林生态系统内各生态因子的响应各不相同.由于植被状况及生态环境的不同,森林火灾的时空分布特征在中国不同植被气候类型内表现不同,根据植被气候类型分类系统,将中国主要森林火灾地区划分为4个区域:东北(冷温带松林)、华北(落叶阔叶林)、东南(常绿阔叶林)和西南(热带雨林),应用遥感监测数据和地面环境数据,以时空变量、生态因子(植被生长变化指数、湿度等)为可选自变量,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,就森林火险对不同生态影响因子的响应规律进行了分析,建立了基于生态因子的着火概率模型和大火蔓延概率模型,通过模拟及实际数据散点图、火险概率图,评估了模型应用价值.结果表明,土壤湿度及植被含水量在落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林、热带雨林地区对着火概率影响显著.在4个植被气候区内,土壤及凋落物湿度对大火蔓延的作用较小.在冷温带松林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林地区,植被生长的年内变化对火灾发生的影响显著,在常绿阔叶林地区,年内植被生长变化对大火蔓延的作用较小.森林火险概率与各生态因子的相关关系主要呈现出非线性.不同植被气候区内,火险概率受不同生态因子组合的影响,这与不同区域的植被状况及生态环境不同有关.在不同植被气候类型,应用时空变量、生态因子建立半参数化logistic回归模型,进行着火概率和大火蔓延概率的模拟具有可行性和实际应用能力.为进一步分析森林生态系统与火灾之间的动态关系、展开生态系统火灾干扰研究提供了理论基础.     

Observed relationships between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera,Maluku, Indonesia

A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.     

Spatial evaluation of Indonesia's 2015 fire‐affected area and estimated carbon emissions using Sentinel‐1

Fires raged once again across Indonesia in the latter half of 2015, creating a state of emergency due to poisonous smoke and haze across Southeast Asia as well as incurring great financial costs to the government. A strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) led to drought in many parts of Indonesia, resulting in elevated fire occurrence comparable with the previous catastrophic event in 1997/1998. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data promise to provide improved detection of land use and land cover changes in the tropics as compared to methodologies dependent upon cloud‐ and haze‐free images. This study presents the first spatially explicit estimates of burned area across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and West Papua based on high‐resolution Sentinel‐1A SAR imagery. Here, we show that 4,604,569 hectares (ha) were burned during the 2015 fire season (overall accuracy 84%), and compare this with other existing operational burned area products (MCD64, GFED4.0, GFED4.1s). Intersection of burned area with fine‐scale land cover and peat layer maps indicates that 0.89 gigatons carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO₂e) were released through the fire event. This result is compared to other estimates based on nonspatially explicit thermal anomaly measurements or atmospheric monitoring. Using freely available SAR C‐band data from the Sentinel mission, we argue that the presented methodology is able to quickly and precisely detect burned areas, supporting improvement in fire control management as well as enhancing accuracy of emissions estimation.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.