生态阈值确定方法综述

生态系统在环境条件变化时表现出的剧变或阈值现象是当前生态学研究的热点,但是生态阈值定量检测的困难阻碍了这一主题的研究与应用。本文从典型案例入手,通过分析潜在生态阈值的S型曲线式、补给-压力式和跃迁式驱动-响应机理,归纳了局部加权回归散点平滑法、分段回归、高斯模型、拐点分析软件、稳态转换检测软件、指示种阈值分析和系统动力学仿真模型7种生态阈值确定方法,并评述了其优缺点和适用性,以期为生态阈值的定量分析研究提供方法借鉴。     

生态阈值:概念、方法与研究展望

生态阈值概念是20世纪70年代提出的,主要指生态系统的几个稳态之间突然改变的点或区域。在阐明生态系统结构与功能的关系、构建区域可持续发展范式以及服务于生态系统管理和生态红线的划定中,生态阈值的检测和量化有着重要的理论和实践意义。该文首先梳理了前人关于生态阈值的概念、类型的一些提法,从预警研究角度提出可以从两个层次理解生态阈值概念:生态阈值点是系统从量变到质变的转折点,类似于红色界限;而生态阈值带可以理解为量变过程中不同稳态之间的转换区域,类似于黄色与橙色预警边界带。黄色生态阈值表示生态系统可通过自身的调节能力重新达到稳定状态;橙色生态阈值表示需要排除干扰因子使得生态系统重新达到平衡;而红色生态阈值为关键阈值点,超过此阈值,生态系统将发生不可逆的退化甚至崩溃。该文还总结了目前确定生态阈值的主要方法,主要是基于野外观测数据的统计分析与模型模拟方法。最后,基于生态系统服务、生物多样性保护与生态系统管理等几个当今生态学热点研究领域,简单总结归纳了生态阈值的研究现状,并提出生态阈值未来的3个研究难点和方向:1)开展针对生态阈值检测和量化的研究;2)关注生态阈值的尺度效应并加强野外观测;3)发挥生态阈值的预警作用,指导"生态红线"的划定和生态系统管理。     

生态系统稳态转换检测研究进展

在气候变化、人类活动等影响下,生态系统结构和功能可能发生大规模的突变,导致生态系统从一个相对稳定的状态进入另一个稳定状态,这种现象称为稳态转换。由于生态系统的复杂性,准确刻画生态系统多稳态并界定其临界点尚存在挑战,提升对生态系统稳态转换的检测和预测能力依旧是生态学领域研究的热点和难题。基于多稳态理论和稳态转换经典概念框架,阐释了稳态转换检测的理论基础;归纳总结出四种稳态转换检测方法的原理和优劣势;鉴于稳态转换的尺度依赖性,梳理了单一生态系统、区域综合生态系统和全球生态系统不同尺度下的稳态转换检测方法、研究思路和应用案例。基于研究进展和问题现状,提出在未来研究中,亟待发展适应复杂系统的综合检测方法;创新稳态转换多尺度分析的技术方法体系;深化生态系统稳态转换驱动机制研究,构建多元耦合机理模型;进而深化稳态转换检测结果链接生态系统管理的实践研究;解析生态系统服务和可持续发展机制。     

浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的阈值判定方法

浅水湖泊生态系统对人类干扰的反应会随着干扰力度的改变或增强而出现突然的变化,即发生稳态转换;对其机理和驱动机制的揭示将有助于对湖泊富营养化的控制及恢复.基于“多稳态”理论的稳态转换研究已广泛开展,但对浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的驱动机制结论各异,采用的阈值判定方法相差很大,主要有实验观测、模型模拟和统计分析3种.实验观测多关注少数特定指标,指标筛选过程复杂且工作量大;模型模拟虽能从较为全面的尺度上理解生态系统稳态变化的特征和主要机理过程,但在模型误差和不确定性的处理等问题上尚存在不足;统计分析方法基于对长时间序列数据的统计变化规律分析,用以判断或者预警稳态转换现象的发生,是目前最为常用的方法.目前稳态转换领域的研究大都是对已发生的稳态转换进行机制分析或过程反演,对未来预测与预警的问题仍然亟需加强.     

稳态转换视角下生态系统服务变化过程与作用机制

优化生态系统服务供给是实现人类社会与自然生态系统和谐发展的必然途径。生态系统在平衡与非平衡之间复杂的转化模式使生态系统服务研究备受阻力,如何科学地解析生态系统服务内在调控机制是实现从自然资源利用到生态系统功能优化的关键。从论述生态系统稳态转换驱动机制入手,阐明扰动发生后稳态转换的路径、生态系统功能对扰动的响应模式;基于稳态转换视角深入诠释生态系统服务内涵及变化过程,以"结构-过程-功能-服务-人类福祉-可持续性"为核心架构来发展生态系统服务理论框架,并从生态系统敏感性和恢复力等内在属性探讨生态系统服务对结构和功能变化的响应情况;解析当土地利用变化超过生态系统阈值时,各项生态系统服务间的互馈作用。基于稳态转换视角评述生态系统服务变化过程与作用机制,以期为生态系统服务研究及生态系统管理提供新视角。     

生态系统多稳态研究进展

在多稳态的生态系统中，外力可能导致生态系统状态突然之间发生不可逆转的转变，从而达到一个新的平衡状态。但目前对多稳态理论的系统研究很少，如何使用预警信号来预测生态系统的状态转变依旧是个难题。通过多稳态理论的梳理提出了一个更加综合的多稳态定义，并以放牧模型为例，系统总结了多稳态理论的相关概念，将多稳态理论应用在生态系统演替和扰沌理论的解释中；通过对生态系统稳态转换预警信号的原理、优缺点和应用条件的分析，对不同尺度下多稳态的研究方法进行了归纳；最后提出了目前多稳态领域的研究问题和未来的研究重点。结果表明：（1）将时间和空间预警信号结合在一起，并量化正确预警信号的概率，对错误预警信号的比例进行加权，可能会提供更准确的稳态转换的预报。（2）定量观测试验适用于小尺度的研究，而较大尺度的研究则采用简化的模型来模拟研究，选择正确的尺度极有可能改变预警信号的可靠性。（3）结合多稳态理论研究生态系统临界转换和反馈控制机制，并将基于性状的特征指标和进化动力学纳入其中，是生态系统修复实践的重要研究方向。（4）将多稳态相关理论和生态保护管理政策的实践相结合，是多稳态理论未来应用的前景。本研究为多稳态理论和实践的深入研究提供科学支撑。     

生态系统的多稳态与突变

许多生态系统可能在短时间内发生难以预料的状态突变, 其中一些生态系统突变的机理可以用多稳态理论进行解释。近年来生态系统的多稳态和突变现象及其机理吸引了研究者和管理者的广泛关注。本文重点对生态系统多稳态的理论基础、识别方法及稳态转换发生的早期预警信号进行综述, 并基于典型生态系统过程对现实世界中可能观测到的稳态转换进行实例分析, 最后对多稳态概念框架和理论应用中的潜在争议进行讨论, 以期为非线性生态系统动态的理论研究、管理实践和生物多样性保护等提供参考。     

长江口滨海湿地潮间带生态系统的多稳态特征

多稳态现象普遍存在于多种生态系统中,它与生态系统的健康和可持续发展密切相关,已成为生态学研究的热点与难点,但是目前有关滨海湿地生态系统多稳态的形成机制还缺乏深入研究.本文以崇明东滩鸟类自然保护区的潮间带生态系统为研究对象,通过以下内容,开展滨海湿地多稳态研究: 1)通过验证多稳态的判定依据“双峰”和“阈值”特征,证实长江口潮间带生态系统存在多稳态,并确定其稳态类型;2)通过监测潮间带生态系统水动力过程、沉积动力过程以及盐沼植物生长和扩散情况,分析盐沼植被与沉积地貌之间的正反馈作用,进而探讨潮间带生态系统多稳态的形成机制.结果表明: 1)潮间带生态系统的归一化植被指数(NDVI)频度分布存在明显的双峰特征,且盐沼植物成活存在生物量阈值效应,均证实潮间带生态系统存在多稳态,“盐沼”和“光滩”是潮间带生态系统的两种相对稳定状态;2)崇明东滩盐沼前沿的沉积地貌表现出泥沙快速淤积的趋势,显著促进了盐沼植物的生长,盐沼植物与泥沙淤积之间的这种正反馈作用是潮间带生态系统形成多稳态的主要原因;3)盐沼植被扩散格局监测结果在景观尺度上也表明,泥沙淤积作用促进了潮间带生态系统“盐沼”和“光滩”多稳态的形成.本研究既丰富了滨海湿地稳态转换的机理研究,也为我国开展海岸带保护、修复和管理提供了科学依据,具有重要的理论和实践意义.     

生态阈值研究进展

生态阈值是指生态系统从一种状态快速转变为另一种状态的某个点或一段区间，推动这种转变的动力来自某个或多个关键生态因子微弱的附加改变。生态阈值现象普遍存在于自然生态系统中。主要有两种类型：生态阈值点（ecological threshold point）和生态阈值带（ecological threshold zone）。在生态阈值点前后，生态系统的特性、功能或过程发生迅速的改变。生态阈值带暗含了生态系统从一种稳定状态到另一稳定状态逐渐转换的过程，而不像点型阈值那样发生突然的转变。后者在自然界中可能更为普遍。在自然资源保护和生态系统可持续管理中，生态阈值研究有着重要的理论和实践意义，受到生态学和相关学科的密切关注。其研究已经在森林、草原、湖泊、海洋等生态系统，从不同角度，针对不同生态因子广泛开展。由于生态因子相互作用的复杂性，有关生态阈值的性质及其在不同空间尺度上的联系仍然存在很大的不确定性。在未来的研究中必须加强综合和定量化研究，进一步提高应用生态阈值的能力。在全球变化和生态响应研究领域，生态阈值研究将会有更大的发展空间。     

新型生态系统理论及其争议综述

澳大利亚Richard J Hobbs教授等近年提出的新型生态系统(Novel Ecosystems)理论认为,由于人类作用,地球生态系统经历了前所未有的变化,很多生态系统已经越过不可逆转的阈值,不可能恢复到原有状态,形成了新的生态系统,其生物要素、非生物要素和系统功能等都发生了显著改变;人类应该面对现实,必须反思传统生态保护和生态恢复的行为、政策和思维;应该致力新型生态系统的特征、属性和演替规律的研究,在管理、规划、政策、组织和技术等方面的创新。新型生态系统理论引起了很大争议。质疑者认为,由于自然作用力和人类的持续扰动,地球生态系统一直在不断变化,所以一直都是"新"的,根本没必要贴上"新型"标签;该理论基本概念模糊,理论模型不精确,缺乏严密的逻辑推理,还很不成熟;该理论无助于生态保护和生态恢复的实践,会扰乱人们的思想,没有实践价值。不过,支持者和质疑者都承认地球上很多生态系统的确遭到严重破坏,已经发生深刻演替,极有必要对这类系统的非线性机制、系统阈值、恢复力、新范式,以及破坏后的所有特征等开展研究,应该理性选择合适的修复方法,理性分析人工干预的程度及其成功的可能性,科学制定行动方案和优选标准。跟踪国际前沿,开展新型生态系统理论研究有助于丰富我国恢复生态学理论以及创新工程实践。     

Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition

Regime shifts are substantial, long-lasting reorganizations of complex systems, such as ecosystems. Large ecosystem changes such as eutrophication, shifts among vegetation types, degradation of coral reefs and regional climate change often come as surprises because we lack leading indicators for regime shifts. Increases in variability of ecosystems have been suggested to foreshadow ecological regime shifts. However, it may be difficult to discern variability due to impending regime shift from that of exogenous drivers that affect the ecosystem. We addressed this problem using a model of lake eutrophication. Lakes are subject to fluctuations in recycling associated with regime shifts, as well as fluctuating nutrient inputs. Despite the complications of noisy inputs, increasing variability of lake-water phosphorus was discernible prior to the shift to eutrophic conditions. Simulations show that rising standard deviation (SD) could signal impending shifts about a decade in advance. The rising SD was detected by studying variability around predictions of a simple time-series model, and did not depend on detailed knowledge of the actual ecosystem dynamics.     

A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

Massive changes to ecosystems sometimes cross thresholds from which recovery can be difficult, expensive and slow. These thresholds are usually discovered in post hoc analyses long after the event occurred. Anticipating these changes prior to their occurrence could give managers a chance to intervene. Here we present a novel approach for anticipating ecosystem thresholds that combines resilience indicators with Quickest detection of change points. Unlike existing methods, the Quickest detection method is updated every time a data point arrives, and minimizes the time to detect an approaching threshold given the users’ tolerance for false alarms. The procedure accurately detected an impending regime shift in an experimentally manipulated ecosystem. An ecosystem model was used to determine if the method can detect an approaching threshold soon enough to prevent a regime shift. When the monitored variable was directly involved in the interaction that caused the regime shift, detection was quick enough to avert collapse. When the monitored variable was only indirectly linked to the critical transition, detection came too late. The procedure is useful for assessing changes in resilience as ecosystems approach thresholds. However some thresholds cannot be detected in time to prevent regime shifts, and surprises will be inevitable in ecosystem management.     

Ecological thresholds: Concept,Methods and research outlooks

The concept of ecological thresholds was raised in the 1970s. However, it was subsequently given different definitions and interpretations depending on research fields or disciplines. For most scientists, ecological thresholds refer to the points or zones that link abrupt changes between alternative stable states of an ecosystem. The measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds have great theoretical and practical significance in ecological research for clarifying the structure and function of ecosystems, for planning sustainable development modes, and for delimiting ecological red lines in managing the ecosystems of a region. By reviewing the existing concepts and classifications of ecological thresholds, we propose a new concept and definition at two different levels: the ecological threshold points, i.e. the turning points of quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which can be considered as ecological red lines; the ecological threshold zones, i.e. the regime shifts of the quantitative changes among different stable states, which can be considered as the yellow and/or orange warning boundaries of the gradual ecological changes. The yellow thresholds mean that an ecosystem can return to a stable state by its self-adjustment, the orange thresholds indicate that the ecosystem will stay in the equilibrium state after interference factors being removed, whereas the red thresholds, as the critical threshold points, indicate that the ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation or even collapse beyond those points. We also summarizes two types of popular Methods in determining ecological thresholds: statistical analysis and modeling based on data of field observations. The applications of ecological thresholds in ecosystem service, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management research are also reviewed. Future research on ecological thresholds should focus on the following aspects: (1) methodological development for measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds; (2) emphasizing the scaling effect of ecological thresholds and establishment of national-scale observation system and network; and (3) implementation of ecological thresholds as early warning tools in ecosystem management and delimiting ecological red lines.     

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.     

How Regime Shifts in Connected Aquatic Ecosystems Are Affected by the Typical Downstream Increase of Water Flow

All over the world freshwater ecosystems like ponds, ditches and lakes suffer from nutrient-driven regime shifts from submerged plants to dominance by algae or free-floating plants. Although freshwaters are often connected and part of a network, most of our current knowledge on regime shifts comes from studies of isolated ecosystems. The few studies that have assessed the spatial manifestation of regime shifts overlooked the hydrological fact that the water flow through connected waters typically increases in the downstream direction. Here, we use a complex ecosystem model to show that this increase in flow does not lead to spatial differences in ecosystem state. We support these findings with a simple, analytically tractable, nutrient retention model on connected waterbodies. The model shows that all bodies have the same nutrient concentration despite spatial gradients in the flow of water as well as nutrients carried by the water. As a consequence, each connected waterbody is equally vulnerable to a regime shift, implying a regime shift to be system-wide. Furthermore, it appeared that each connected waterbody behaves the same as an isolated waterbody, implying that the vast body of theory on isolated systems, like alternative stable states theory, can still be useful for connected systems. Although these findings are violated when there is heterogeneity in lateral runoff or waterbody characteristics—leading to spatial differences in ecosystem state and therefore to differences in the vulnerability to a regime shift—they show that the typical downstream build-up of water flow does not necessarily lead to differences in ecological state, and thereby provide a basic concept to better understand the ecology of connected freshwaters.     

山水林田湖草生态保护修复的理论支撑体系研究

山水林田湖草生态保护修复关系到我国生态文明建设和美丽中国建设进程,关系到国家生态安全和中华民族永续发展。开展山水林田湖草生态保护修复是生态文明建设的重要内容,是贯彻绿色发展理念的有力举措,也是破解当前生态环境与经济发展之间难题的必然要求。通过总结梳理当前我国山水林田湖草生态保护修复工作的进展与概况,立足于“山水林田湖草是生命共同体”的理论核心,详细阐释了山水林田湖草生态保护修复的内涵及理论体系。山水林田湖草生命共同体的基础理论是以生态系统生态学为支撑,基于流域生态学、恢复生态学和景观生态学的理论诠释山水林田湖草生命共同体的时空区域尺度及流域内部各生态系统之间的耦合机制,通过复合生态系统理论构建山水林田湖草生命共同体的社会、经济、自然生态系统的“架构”体系,明确了流域可持续发展是山水林田湖草生命共同体的最终发展目标。在构建山水林田湖草生态保护修复理论支撑体系的基础上,进一步总结凝练了山水林田湖草生态保护修复的技术体系,包括生态保护、修复与恢复技术、生态建设技术、生态功能提升技术、生态服务优化技术与监督管理技术等,为我国山水林田湖草生态保护修复工作提供坚实的理论和技术支撑体系。     

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure and function. Recently, studies demonstrated the existence of alternative stable states in various terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These so-called ecosystem regime shifts have been explained mainly as a result of multiple causes, e.g. climatic regime shifts, overexploitation or a combination of both. The occurrence of ecosystem regime shifts has important management implications, as they can cause significant losses of ecological and economic resources. Because of hysteresis in ecosystem responses, restoring regimes considered as favourable may require drastic and expensive management actions. Also the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto- and zooplankton as well as fisheries data. Our analyses of 52 biotic and abiotic variables using multivariate statistics demonstrated a major reorganization of the ecosystem and identified two stable states between 1974 and 2005, separated by a transition period in 1988–1993. We show the change in Baltic ecosystem structure to have the characteristics of a discontinuous regime shift, initiated by climate-induced changes in the abiotic environment and stabilized by fisheries-induced feedback loops in the food web. Our results indicate the importance of maintaining the resilience of an ecosystem to atmospherically induced environmental change by reducing the anthropogenic impact.