Modes of speciation and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity has generated much debate over the need for niches to explain biodiversity patterns. Discussion of the theory has focused on its neutrality assumption, i.e. the functional equivalence of species in competition and dispersal. Almost no attention has been paid to another critical aspect of the theory, the assumptions on the nature of the speciation process. In the standard version of the neutral theory each individual has a fixed probability to speciate. Hence, the speciation rate of a species is directly proportional to its abundance in the metacommunity. We argue that this assumption is not realistic for most speciation modes because speciation is an emergent property of complex processes at larger spatial and temporal scales and, consequently, speciation rate can either increase or decrease with abundance. Accordingly, the assumption that speciation rate is independent of abundance (each species has a fixed probability to speciate) is a more natural starting point in a neutral theory of biodiversity. Here we present a neutral model based on this assumption and we confront this new model to 20 large data sets of tree communities, expecting the new model to fit the data better than Hubbell's original model. We find, however, that the data sets are much better fitted by Hubbell's original model. This implies that species abundance data can discriminate between different modes of speciation, or, stated otherwise, that the mode of speciation has a large impact on the species abundance distribution. Our model analysis points out new ways to study how biodiversity patterns are shaped by the interplay between evolutionary processes (speciation, extinction) and ecological processes (competition, dispersal).     

Slight differences among individuals and the unified neutral theory of biodiversity

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity provides a very simple and counterintuitive explanation of species diversity patterns. By specifying speciation, community size and dispersal, and completely ignoring differences among individual organisms and species, it generates biodiversity patterns that remarkably resemble natural ones. Here I show that adding even slight differences among organisms generates very different patterns and predictions. In large communities with widespread dispersal, heritable differences in viability among individual organisms lead to biodiversity patterns characterised by the overdominance of a single species comprising organisms with relatively high fitness. In communities with local dispersal, the same differences produce rapid community extinction. I conclude that the unified neutral theory is not robust to slight deviations from its most controversial assumption.     

Theory predicts a rapid transition from niche-structured to neutral biodiversity patterns across a speciation-rate gradient

A central challenge in community ecology is to predict patterns of biodiversity with mechanistic models. The neutral model of biodiversity is a simple model that appears to provide parsimonious and accurate predictions of biodiversity patterns in some ecosystems, even though it ignores processes such as species interactions and niche structure. In a recent paper, we used analytical techniques to reveal why the mean predictions of the neutral model are robust to niche structure in high diversity but not low-diversity ecosystems. In the present paper, we explore this phenomenon further by generating stochastic simulated data from a spatially implicit hybrid niche-neutral model across different speciation rates. We compare the resulting patterns of species richness and abundance with the patterns expected from a pure neutral and a pure niche model. As the speciation rate in the hybrid model increases, we observe a surprisingly rapid transition from an ecosystem in which diversity is almost entirely governed by niche structure to one in which diversity is statistically indistinguishable from that of the neutral model. Because the transition is rapid, one prediction of our abstract model is that high-diversity ecosystems such as tropical forests can be approximated by one simple model—the neutral model—whereas low-diversity ecosystems such as temperate forests can be approximated by another simple model—the niche model. Ecosystems that require the hybrid model are predicted to be rare, occurring only over a narrow range of speciation rates.     

Understanding how biodiversity unfolds through time under neutral theory

Theoretical predictions for biodiversity patterns are typically derived under the assumption that ecological systems have reached a dynamic equilibrium. Yet, there is increasing evidence that various aspects of ecological systems, including (but not limited to) species richness, are not at equilibrium. Here, we use simulations to analyse how biodiversity patterns unfold through time. In particular, we focus on the relative time required for various biodiversity patterns (macroecological or phylogenetic) to reach equilibrium. We simulate spatially explicit metacommunities according to the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (NTB) under three modes of speciation, which differ in how evenly a parent species is split between its two daughter species. We find that species richness stabilizes first, followed by species area relationships (SAR) and finally species abundance distributions (SAD). The difference in timing of equilibrium between these different macroecological patterns is the largest when the split of individuals between sibling species at speciation is the most uneven. Phylogenetic patterns of biodiversity take even longer to stabilize (tens to hundreds of times longer than species richness) so that equilibrium predictions from neutral theory for these patterns are unlikely to be relevant. Our results suggest that it may be unwise to assume that biodiversity patterns are at equilibrium and provide a first step in studying how these patterns unfold through time.     

Community structure of vascular epiphytes: a neutral perspective

Vascular epiphytes form a diverse group of almost 30 000 species, yet theory concerning their community structure is still largely lacking. We therefore employed the simplest models of biodiversity, (near-)neutral models, to generate hypotheses concerning their community structure. With recently developed tools for (near-)neutral models we analyzed species abundance data from many samples in Central and South America which we divided into four metacommunities (Mesoamerica, Central America, Amazonia and Paraná), where for each metacommunity we considered two subsets differing in dispersal syndrome: an animal-dispersed guild and a wind-dispersed guild. We considered three models differing in the underlying speciation mode. Across all metacommunities, we found observed patterns to be indistinguishable from patterns generated by neutral or near-neutral processes. Furthermore, we found that subdivision in different dispersal guilds was often supported, with recruitment limitation being stronger for animal-dispersed species than for wind-dispersed species. This is the first time that (near-)neutral theory has been applied to epiphyte communities. Future efforts with additional data sets and more refined models are expected to further improve our understanding of community structure in epiphytes and will have to test the generality of our findings.     

Do fitness-equalizing tradeoffs lead to neutral communities?

Neutral theory in ecology is aimed at describing communities where species coexist due to similarities rather than the classically posited niche differences. It assumes that all individuals, regardless of species identity, are demographically equivalent. However, Hubbell suggested that neutral theory may describe even niche communities because tradeoffs equalize fitness across species which differ in their traits. In fact, tradeoffs can involve stabilization as well as fitness equalization, and stabilization involves different dynamics and can lead to different community patterns than neutral theory. Yet the important question remains if neutral theory provides a robust picture of all fitness-equalized communities, of which communities with demographic equivalence are one special case. Here, I examine Hubbell’s suggestion for a purely fitness-equalizing interspecific birth–death tradeoff, expanding neutral theory to a theory describing this broader class of fitness-equalized communities. In particular, I use a flexible framework allowing examination of the influence of speciation dynamics. I find that the scaling of speciation rates with birth and death rates, which is poorly known, has large impacts on community structure. In most cases, the departure from the predictions of current neutral models is substantial. This work suggests that demographic and speciation complexities present a challenge to the future development and use of neutral theory in ecology as null model. The framework presented here will provide a starting point for meeting that challenge, and may also be useful in the development of stochastic niche models with speciation dynamics.     

Structural organization of the social paper wasp (Hymenoptera: Polistinae) assemblage along a latitudinal gradient in the Atlantic Rainforest: correlating fauna partitioning to biodiversity centers

Based on species endemism, three biodiversity centers, called “Ecological Corridors” have been proposed as one of the main conservation strategies for the Atlantic Rain Forest. This study tested whether the organization of the social paper wasp assemblage fits those centers. A standardized protocol was used for sampling the social paper wasp fauna. The structural organization was estimated by Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) based on the similarity indexes of Sorensen (qualitative data) and Morisita-Horn (quantitative data). Regressive models were applied to the first axes’ site scores of the NMDS, to the latitudinal and altitudinal variations, and to the speciation and immigration probabilities predicted by the neutral theory for a metacommunity. Our results indicated that the social paper wasp assemblage is organized in a continuum, with two distinct biodiversity centers. The organization of the assemblage along the gradient was dependent on latitudinal and altitudinal variations and their interactions, and also on the speciation and immigration probabilities. Several studies have demonstrated that the current biodiversity patterns of the Atlantic Forest might be explained by the past climate and, consequently, by the connection between the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest. In addition, speciation and immigration probabilities strongly influence the compositional and structural variations of the social paper wasp assemblage along the latitudinal gradient.     

How likely is speciation in neutral ecology?

Patterns of biodiversity predicted by the neutral theory rely on a simple phenomenological model of speciation. To further investigate the effect of speciation on neutral biodiversity, we analyze a spatially explicit neutral model based on population genetics. We define the metacommunity as a system of populations exchanging migrants, and we use this framework to introduce speciation with little or no gene flow (allopatric and parapatric speciation). We find that with realistic mutation rates, our metacommunity model driven by neutral processes cannot support more than a few species. Adding natural selection in the population genetics of speciation increases the number of species in the metacommunity, but the level of diversity found in the Barro Colorado Island is difficult to reach.     

Defining parasite communities is a challenge for neutral theory

The neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is a null model of community structure that suggests that it may be possible to explain the richness and relative abundance of species through neutral processes of immigration, extinction, and speciation, without resort to interactive processes such as competition. There have been no attempts to fit neutral models to parasite communities to date. The nature of parasite communities, however, challenges the basic assumptions of neutral theory. In particular, the spatially dynamic relationships between hosts as habitat patches result in immigration rates that are in a constant state of flux. In addition, the partial compositional overlap of many component communities means that they can affect each other's process rates, which violates the zero-sum assumptions of neutral theory. Despite these obstacles, many of the patterns that neutral theory seeks to explain are still present in parasite communities. Far from being an esoteric special case, parasite communities are ubiquitous in nature and, therefore, any attempts to produce unified theoretical frameworks should accommodate the characteristics of parasite communities, or risk obsolescence.     

Advancing the metabolic theory of biodiversity

A component of metabolic scaling theory has worked towards understanding the influence of metabolism over the generation and maintenance of biodiversity. Specific models within this ‘metabolic theory of biodiversity’ (MTB) have addressed temperature gradients in speciation rate and species richness, but the scope of MTB has been questioned because of empirical departures from model predictions. In this study, we first show that a generalized MTB is not inconsistent with empirical patterns and subsequently implement an eco‐evolutionary MTB which has thus far only been discussed qualitatively. More specifically, we combine a functional trait (body mass) approach and an environmental gradient (temperature) with a dynamic eco‐evolutionary model that builds on the current MTB. Our approach uniquely accounts for feedbacks between ecological interactions (size‐dependent competition and predation) and evolutionary rates (speciation and extinction). We investigate a simple example in which temperature influences mutation rate, and show that this single effect leads to dynamic temperature gradients in macroevolutionary rates and community structure. Early in community evolution, temperature strongly influences speciation and both speciation and extinction strongly influence species richness. Through time, niche structure evolves, speciation and extinction rates fall, and species richness becomes increasingly independent of temperature. However, significant temperature‐richness gradients may persist within emergent functional (trophic) groups, especially when niche breadths are wide. Thus, there is a strong signal of both history and ecological interactions on patterns of species richness across temperature gradients. More generally, the successful implementation of an eco‐evolutionary MTB opens the perspective that a process‐based MTB can continue to emerge through further development of metabolic models that are explicit in terms of functional traits and environmental gradients.     

生物多样性起源与进化研究进展

生物多样性的起源与进化是生命科学领域最重要的科学问题之一。多组学数据的积累和相关分析技术的发展, 极大地推动了人们对生物多样性起源与进化的理解和研究, 使得阐明生物进化事件发生的过程与机制成为可能。值此《生物多样性》创刊30周年之际, 本文简要回顾生物多样性起源与进化相关研究在近年来取得的重要研究进展, 以期帮助读者了解该研究方向的发展现状。过去10年中, 生物多样性起源与进化相关研究在生命之树重建、生物多样性时空分布格局、物种概念、物种形成与适应性进化以及新性状起源与多样化等方面取得了许多重要进展, 并在此基础上厘清了许多分类单元间的系统发育关系、揭示了生物多样性分布格局的部分历史成因、提出了新的物种概念和物种形成模型、阐明了新性状和新功能发生的部分分子机制。我们认为, 更精准地重建生命之树、深入挖掘基因组数据以及多学科交叉融合将是今后生物多样性研究的主要趋势。     

Hubbell's fundamental biodiversity parameter and the Simpson diversity index

Central to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity is a universal, dimensionless fundamental biodiversity parameter that is the product of community size and speciation rate. One of the most important discoveries of Hubbell's theory is that the species‐abundance distribution and the species–area relationship of the neutral metacommunity is completely determined by this fundamental biodiversity parameter, although the diversity patterns of the local community are collectively determined by the biodiversity parameter and migration. Using the relative abundance of species and following the concept of heterozygosity of population genetics, here we developed an analytical relationship between this biodiversity parameter and the well‐known Simpson diversity index. This relationship helps bridge the evolutionary aspect of biodiversity to the ecological and statistical aspect of the diversity. The relationship between these two parameters suggests that diversity patterns of the metacommunity can also be equally described by the Simpson index. This relationship provides an alternative approach to interpret and estimate the fundamental biodiversity parameter for the metacommunity.     

Species diversity in local neutral communities

We extend the neutral theory of macroecology by deriving biodiversity models (relative species abundance and species-area relationships) in a local community-metacommunity system in which the local community is embedded within the metacommunity. We first demonstrate that the local species diversity patterns converge to that of the metacommunity as the size (scale) of the embedded local community increases. This result shows that in continuous landscapes no sharp boundaries dividing the communities at the two scales exist; they are an artificial distinction made by the current spatially implicit neutral theory. Second, we remove the artificial restriction that speciation cannot occur in a local community, even if the effects of local speciation are small. Third, we introduce stochasticity into the immigration rate, previously treated as constant, and demonstrate that local species diversity is a function not only of the mean but also of the variance in immigration rate. High variance in immigration rates reduces species diversity in local communities. Finally, we show that a simple relationship exists between the fundamental diversity parameter of neutral theory and Simpson's index for local communities. Derivation of this relationship extends recent work on diversity indices and provides a means of evaluating the effect of immigration on estimates of the fundamental diversity parameter derived from relative species abundance data on local communities.     

Effects of neutrality and productivity on mammal richness and evolutionary history in Australia

Explaining how heterogeneous spatial patterns of species diversity emerge is one of the most fascinating questions of biogeography. One of the great challenges is revealing the mechanistic effect of environmental variables on diversity. Correlative analyses indicate that productivity is associated with taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of communities. Surprisingly, no unifying body of theory have been developed to understand the mechanism by which spatial variation of productivity affects the fundamental processes of biodiversity. Based on widely discussed verbal models in ecology about the effect of productivity on species diversity, we developed a spatially explicit neutral model that incorporates the effect of primary productivity on community size and confronted our model's predictions with observed patterns of species richness and evolutionary history of Australian terrestrial mammals. The imposed restrictions on community size create larger populations in areas of high productivity, which increases community turnover and local speciation, and reduces extinction. The effect of productivity on community size modeled in our study causes higher accumulation of species diversity in productive regions even in the absence of niche‐based processes. However, such a simple model is not capable of reproducing spatial patterns of mammal evolutionary history in Australia, implying that more complex evolutionary mechanisms are involved. Our study demonstrates that the overall patterns of species richness can be directly explained by changes in community sizes along productivity gradients, supporting a major role of processes associated with energetic constraints in shaping diversity patterns.     

Demographic trade-offs determine species abundance and diversity

Aims Much recent theory has focused on the role of neutral processes in assembling communities, but the basic assumption that all species are demographically identical has found little empirical support. Here, we show that the framework of the current neutral theory can easily be generalized to incorporate species differences so long as fitness equivalence among individuals is maintained through trade-offs between birth and death.Methods Our theory development is based on a careful reformulation of the Moran model of metacommunity dynamics in terms of a non-linear one-step stochastic process, which is described by a master equation.Important findings We demonstrate how fitness equalization through demographic trade-offs can generate significant macroecological diversity patterns, leading to a very different interpretation of the relation between Fisher's α and Hubbell's fundamental biodiversity number. Our model shows that equal fitness (not equal demographics) significantly promotes species diversity through strong selective sieving of community membership against high-mortality species, resulting in a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate. An important implication of demographic trade-off is that it can partly explain the excessively high speciation rates predicted by the neutral theory of the stronger symmetry. Fitness equalization through demographic trade-offs generalizes neutral theory by considering heterospecific demographic difference, thus representing a significant step toward integrating the neutral and niche paradigms of biodiversity.     

A stochastic biodiversity model with overlapping niche structure

The niche is a fundamental ecological concept that underpins many explanations of patterns of biodiversity. The complexity of niche processes in ecological systems, however, means that it is difficult to capture them accurately in theoretical models of community assembly. In this study, we build upon simple neutral biodiversity models by adding the important ingredient of overlapping niche structure. Our model is spatially implicit and contains a fixed number of equal-sized habitats. Each species in the metacommunity arises through a speciation event; at which time, it is randomly assigned a fundamental niche or set of environments/habitats in which it can persist. Within each habitat, species compete with other species that have different but overlapping fundamental niches. Species abundances then change through ecological drift; each, however, is constrained by its maximum niche breadth and by the presence of other species in its habitats. Using our model, we derive analytical expressions for steady-state species abundance distributions, steady-state distributions of niche breadth across individuals and across species, and dynamic distributions of niche breadth across species. With this framework, we identify the conditions that produce the log-series species abundance distribution familiar from neutral models. We then identify how overlapping niche structure can lead to other species abundance distributions and, in particular, ask whether these new distributions differ significantly from species abundance distributions predicted by non-overlapping niche models. Finally, we extend our analysis to consider additional distributions associated with realized niche breadths. Overall, our results show that models with overlapping niches can exhibit behavior similar to neutral models, with the caveat that species with narrow fundamental niche breadths will be very rare. If narrow-niche species are common, it must be because they are in a non-overlapping niche or have countervailing advantages over broad-niche species. This result highlights the role that niches can play in establishing demographic neutrality.     

Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods

Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities.     

Coexistence of nearly neutral species

Aims The neutral theory of biodiversity provides a powerful framework for modeling macroecological patterns and interpreting species assemblages. However, there remain several unsolved problems, including the effect of relaxing the assumption of strict neutrality to allow for empirically observed variation in vital rates and the 'problem of time'—empirically measured coexistence times are much shorter than the prediction of the strictly neutral drift model. Here, we develop a nearly neutral model that allows for differential birth and death rates of species. This model provides an approach to study species coexistence away from strict neutrality.Methods Based on Moran's neutral model, which assumes all species in a community have the same competitive ability and have identical birth and death rates, we developed a model that includes birth–death trade-off but excludes speciation. This model describes a wide range of asymmetry from strictly neutral to nearly neutral to far from neutral and is useful for analyzing the effect of drift on species coexistence. Specifically, we analyzed the effects of the birth–death trade-off on the time and probability of species coexistence and quantified the loss of biodiversity (as measured by Simpson's diversity) due to drift by varying species birth and death rates.Important findings We found (i) a birth–death trade-off operating as an equalizing force driven by demographic stochasticity promotes the coexistence of nearly neutral species. Species near demographic trade-offs (i.e. fitness equivalence) can coexist even longer than that predicted by the strictly neutral model; (ii) the effect of birth rates on species coexistence is very similar to that of death rates, but their compensatory effects are not completely symmetric; (iii) ecological drift over time produces a march to fixation. Trade-off-based neutral communities lose diversity more slowly than the strictly neutral community, while non-neutral communities lose diversity much more rapidly; and (iv) nearly neutral systems have substantially shorter time of coexistence than that of neutral systems. This reduced time provides a promising solution to the problem of time.     

Neutral Models with Generalised Speciation

Hubbell’s neutral theory claims that ecological patterns such as species abundance distributions can be explained by a stochastic model based on simple assumptions. One of these assumptions, the point mutation assumption, states that every individual has the same probability to speciate. Etienne et al. have argued that other assumptions on the speciation process could be more realistic, for example, that every species has the same probability to speciate (Etienne, et al. in Oikos 116:241–258, 2007). They introduced a number of neutral community models with a different speciation process, and conjectured formulas for their stationary species abundance distribution. Here we study a generalised neutral community model, encompassing these modified models, and derive its stationary distribution, thus proving the conjectured formulas.