Loss of predator species,not intermediate consumers,triggers rapid and dramatic extinction cascades

Ecological networks are tightly interconnected, such that loss of a single species can trigger additional species extinctions. Theory predicts that such secondary extinctions are driven primarily by loss of species from intermediate or basal trophic levels. In contrast, most cases of secondary extinctions from natural systems have been attributed to loss of entire top trophic levels. Here, we show that loss of single predator species in isolation can, irrespective of their identity or the presence of other predators, trigger rapid secondary extinction cascades in natural communities far exceeding those generally predicted by theory. In contrast, we did not find any secondary extinctions caused by intermediate consumer loss. A food web model of our experimental system—a marine rocky shore community—could reproduce these results only when biologically likely and plausible nontrophic interactions, based on competition for space and predator‐avoidance behaviour, were included. These findings call for a reassessment of the scale and nature of extinction cascades, particularly the inclusion of nontrophic interactions, in forecasts of the future of biodiversity.     

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom‐up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top‐down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non‐harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide‐ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.     

Species loss and secondary extinctions in simple and complex model communities

1. The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. Here we investigate how the complexity (connectance) of model communities affects their response to species loss. Using dynamic analysis based on a global criterion of persistence (permanence) and topological analysis we investigate the extent of secondary extinctions following the loss of different kinds of species. 2. We show that complex communities are, on average, more resistant to species loss than simple communities: the number of secondary extinctions decreases with increasing connectance. However, complex communities are more vulnerable to loss of top predators than simple communities. 3. The loss of highly connected species (species with many links to other species) and species at low trophic levels triggers, on average, the largest number of secondary extinctions. The effect of the connectivity of a species is strongest in webs with low connectance. 4. Most secondary extinctions are due to direct bottom-up effects: consumers go extinct when their resources are lost. Secondary extinctions due to trophic cascades and disruption of predator-mediated coexistence also occur. Secondary extinctions due to disruption of predator-mediated coexistence are more common in complex communities than in simple communities, while bottom-up and top-down extinction cascades are more common in simple communities. 5. Topological analysis of the response of communities to species loss always predicts a lower number of secondary extinctions than dynamic analysis, especially in food webs with high connectance.     

Top predator removals have consistent effects on large species despite high environmental variability

Top predator losses affect a wide array of ecological processes, and there is growing evidence that top predators are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental changes. Despite increasing recognition of the fundamental role that top predators play in structuring communities and ecosystems, it remains challenging to predict the consequences of predator extinctions in highly variable environments. Both biotic and abiotic drivers determine community structure, and manipulative experiments are necessary to disentangle the effects of predator loss from other co‐occurring environmental changes. To explore the consistency of top predator effects in ecological communities that experience high local environmental variability, we experimentally removed top predators from arid‐land stream pool mesocosms in southeastern Arizona, USA, and measured natural background environmental conditions. We inoculated mesocosms with aquatic invertebrates from local streams, removed the top predator Abedus herberti (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) from half of the mesocosms as a treatment, and measured community divergence at the end of the summer dry season. We repeated the experiment in two consecutive years, which represented two very different biotic and abiotic environments. We found that some of the effects of top predator removal were consistent despite significant differences in environmental conditions, community composition, and colonist sources between years. As in other studies, top predator removal did not affect overall species richness or abundance in either year, and we observed inconsistent effects on community and trophic structure. However, top predator removal consistently affected large‐bodied species (those in the top 1% of the community body size distribution) in both years, increasing the abundance of mesopredators and decreasing the abundance of detritivores, even though the identity of these species varied between years. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of large taxa to top predator extirpations and suggest that the consistency of observed ecological patterns may be as important as their magnitude.     

The form of direct interspecific competition modifies secondary extinction patterns in multi‐trophic food webs

Forcibly removing species from ecosystems has important consequences for the remaining assemblage, leading to changes in community structure, ecosystem functioning and secondary (cascading) extinctions. One key question that has arisen from single‐ and multi‐trophic ecosystem models is whether the secondary extinctions that occur within competitive communities (guilds) are also important in multi‐trophic ecosystems? The loss of consumer–resource links obviously causes secondary extinction of specialist consumers (topological extinctions), but the importance of secondary extinctions in multi‐trophic food webs driven by direct competitive exclusion remains unknown. Here I disentangle the effects of extinctions driven by basal competitive exclusion from those caused by trophic interactions in a multi‐trophic ecosystem (basal producers, intermediate and top consumers). I compared food webs where basal species either show diffuse (all species compete with each other identically: no within guild extinctions following primary extinction) or asymmetric competition (unequal interspecific competition: within guild extinctions are possible). Basal competitive exclusion drives extra extinction cascades across all trophic levels, with the effect amplified in larger ecosystems, though varying connectance has little impact on results. Secondary extinction patterns based on the relative abundance of the species lost in the primary extinction differ qualitatively between diffuse and asymmetric competition. Removing asymmetric basal species with low (high) abundance triggers fewer (more) secondary extinctions throughout the whole food web than removing diffuse basal species. Rare asymmetric competitors experience less pressure from consumers compared to rare diffuse competitors. Simulations revealed that diffuse basal species are never involved in extinction cascades, regardless of the trophic level of a primary extinction, while asymmetric competitors were. This work highlights important qualitative differences in extinction patterns that arise when different assumptions are made about the form of direct competition in multi‐trophic food webs.     

Predator effects on herbivore and plant stability

Humans are rapidly altering the diversity and composition of ecological communities by accelerating rates of species extinctions and introductions. These changes in diversity are not random and disproportionately involve the addition or extinction of predators. Theoretical and microcosm studies suggest predator removal may either increase or decrease ecosystem stability. Here we test whether the addition or removal of predators affects aggregate biomass stability in 40 experiments carried out in six different ecosystems. Predators did not alter the temporal variability of autotroph biomass, but significantly destabilized herbivore biomass. The effects of predators on herbivore biomass stability varied significantly among ecosystems, with benthic and pelagic lake systems showing the greatest shifts. Consequently, the addition of predators to communities, as occurs in many conservation efforts, biological control programmes and species introductions, may lead to more variable system dynamics.     

Indirect commensalism promotes persistence of secondary consumer species

Local species extinctions may lead to, often unexpected, secondary extinctions. To predict these, we need to understand how indirect effects, within a network of interacting species, affect the ability of species to persist. It has been hypothesized that the persistence of some predators depends on other predator species that suppress competitively dominant prey to low levels, allowing a greater diversity of prey species, and their predators, to coexist. We show that, in experimental insect communities, the absence of one parasitoid wasp species does indeed lead to the extinction of another that is separated by four trophic links. These results highlight the importance of a holistic systems perspective to biodiversity conservation and the necessity to include indirect population dynamic effects in models for predicting cascading extinctions in networks of interacting species.     

Keystone species and vulnerable species in ecological communities: strong or weak interactors?

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. The probability of secondary extinction to take place and the number of secondary extinctions are likely to depend on the characteristics of the species that is lost--the strength of its interactions with other species--as well as on the distribution of interaction strengths in the whole community. Analysing the effects of species loss in model communities we found that removal of the following species categories triggered, on average, the largest number of secondary extinctions: (a) rare species interacting strongly with many consumers, (b) abundant basal species interacting weakly with their consumers and (c) abundant intermediate species interacting strongly with many resources. We also found that the keystone status of a species with given characteristics was context dependent, that is, dependent on the structure of the community where it was embedded. Species vulnerable to secondary extinctions were mainly species interacting weakly with their resources and species interacting strongly with their consumers.     

Trophic and functional cascades in tropical versus temperate aquatic microcosms

Inverse trophic cascades are a well explored and common consequence of the local depletion or extinction of top predators in natural ecosystems. Despite a large body of research, the cascading effects of predator removal on ecosystem functions are not as well understood. Developing microcosm experiments, we explored food web changes in trophic structure and ecosystem functioning following biomass removal of top predators in representative temperate and tropical rock pool communities that contained similar assemblages of zooplankton and benthic invertebrates. We observed changes in species abundances following predator removal in both temperate and tropical communities, in line with expected inverse effects of a trophic cascade, where predation release benefits the predator’s preys and competitors and impacts the preys of the latter. We also observed several changes at the community and ecosystem levels including a decrease in total abundance and mean trophic level of the community, and changes in chlorophyll-a and total dissolved particles. Our results also showed an increase in variability of both community and ecosystem processes following the removal of predators. These results illustrate how predator removal can lead to inverse trophic cascades both in structural and functioning properties, and can increase variability of ecosystem processes. Although observed patterns were consistent between tropical and temperate communities following an inverse cascade pattern, changes were more pronounced in the temperate community. Therefore, aquatic food webs may have inherent traits that condition ecosystem responses to changes in top-down trophic control and render some aquatic ecosystems especially sensitive to the removals of top predators.     

Rarity of a top predator triggers continent-wide collapse of mammal prey: dingoes and marsupials in Australia

Top predators in terrestrial ecosystems may limit populations of smaller predators that could otherwise become over abundant and cause declines and extinctions of some prey. It is therefore possible that top predators indirectly protect many species of prey from excessive predation. This effect has been demonstrated in some small-scale studies, but it is not known how general or important it is in maintaining prey biodiversity. During the last 150 years, Australia has suffered the world's highest rate of mammal decline and extinction, and most evidence points to introduced mid-sized predators (the red fox and the feral cat) as the cause. Here, we test the idea that the decline of Australia's largest native predator, the dingo, played a role in these extinctions. Dingoes were persecuted from the beginning of European settlement in Australia and have been eliminated or made rare over large parts of the continent. We show a strong positive relationship between the survival of marsupials and the geographical overlap with high-density dingo populations. Our results suggest that the rarity of dingoes was a critical factor which allowed smaller predators to overwhelm marsupial prey, triggering extinction over much of the continent. This is evidence of a crucial role of top predators in maintaining prey biodiversity at large scales in terrestrial ecosystems and suggests that many remaining Australian mammals would benefit from the positive management of dingoes.     

Trophic control of mesopredators in terrestrial ecosystems: top‐down or bottom‐up?

It has been argued that widespread extinctions of top predators have changed terrestrial ecosystem structures through mesopredator release, where increased abundances of medium-sized predators have detrimental effects on prey communities. This top-down concept has received much attention within conservation biology, but few studies have demonstrated the phenomenon. The concept has been criticized since alternative explanations involving bottom-up impacts from bioclimatic effects on ecosystem productivity and from anthropogenic habitat change are rarely considered. We analyse the response of a mesopredator (the red fox) to declines in top predators (wolf and Eurasian lynx) and agricultural expansion over 90 years in Sweden, taking bioclimatic effects into account. We show a top-down mesopredator release effect, but ecosystem productivity determined its strength. The impacts of agricultural activity were mediated by their effects on top predator populations. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes need to be understood for effective preservation of biodiversity in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems.     

Predator dispersal determines the effect of connectivity on prey diversity

Linking local communities to a metacommunity can positively affect diversity by enabling immigration of dispersal-limited species and maintenance of sink populations. However, connectivity can also negatively affect diversity by allowing the spread of strong competitors or predators. In a microcosm experiment with five ciliate species as prey and a copepod as an efficient generalist predator, we analysed the effect of connectivity on prey species richness in metacommunities that were either unconnected, connected for the prey, or connected for both prey and predator. Presence and absence of predator dispersal was cross-classified with low and high connectivity. The effect of connectivity on local and regional richness strongly depended on whether corridors were open for the predator. Local richness was initially positively affected by connectivity through rescue of species from stochastic extinctions. With predator dispersal, however, this positive effect soon turned negative as the predator spread over the metacommunity. Regional richness was unaffected by connectivity when local communities were connected only for the prey, while predator dispersal resulted in a pronounced decrease of regional richness. The level of connectivity influenced the speed of richness decline, with regional species extinctions being delayed for one week in weakly connected metacommunities. While connectivity enabled rescue of prey species from stochastic extinctions, deterministic extinctions due to predation were not overcome through reimmigration from predator-free refuges. Prey reimmigrating into these sink habitats appeared to be directly converted into increased predator abundance. Connectivity thus had a positive effect on the predator, even when the predator was not dispersing itself. Our study illustrates that dispersal of a species with strong negative effects on other community members shapes the dispersal-diversity relationship. When connections enable the spread of a generalist predator, positive effects of connectivity on prey species richness are outweighed by regional extinctions through predation.     

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species’ vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom–up directed, but not for top–down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top–down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.     

Morphological and life‐history responses of anurans to predation by an invasive crayfish: an integrative approach

Predator‐induced phenotypic plasticity has been widely documented in response to native predators, but studies examining the extent to which prey can respond to exotic invasive predators are scarce. As native prey often do not share a long evolutionary history with invasive predators, they may lack defenses against them. This can lead to population declines and even extinctions, making exotic predators a serious threat to biodiversity. Here, in a community‐wide study, we examined the morphological and life‐history responses of anuran larvae reared with the invasive red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, feeding on conspecific tadpoles. We reared tadpoles of nine species until metamorphosis and examined responses in terms of larval morphology, growth, and development, as well as their degree of phenotypic integration. These responses were compared with the ones developed in the presence of a native predator, the larval dragonfly Aeshna sp., also feeding on tadpoles. Eight of the nine species altered their morphology or life history when reared with the fed dragonfly, but only four when reared with the fed crayfish, suggesting among‐species variation in the ability to respond to a novel predator. While morphological defenses were generally similar across species (deeper tails) and almost exclusively elicited in the presence of the fed dragonfly, life‐history responses were very variable and commonly elicited in the presence of the invasive crayfish. Phenotypes induced in the presence of dragonfly were more integrated than in crayfish presence. The lack of response to the presence of the fed crayfish in five of the study species suggests higher risk of local extinction and ultimately reduced diversity of the invaded amphibian communities. Understanding how native prey species vary in their responses to invasive predators is important in predicting the impacts caused by newly established predator–prey interactions following biological invasions.     

Small but Powerful: Top Predator Local Extinction Affects Ecosystem Structure and Function in an Intermittent Stream

Top predator loss is a major global problem, with a current trend in biodiversity loss towards high trophic levels that modifies most ecosystems worldwide. Most research in this area is focused on large-bodied predators, despite the high extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fish that often act as apex consumers. Consequently, it remains unknown if intermittent streams are affected by the consequences of top-predators’ extirpations. The aim of our research was to determine how this global problem affects intermittent streams and, in particular, if the loss of a small-bodied top predator (1) leads to a ‘mesopredator release’, affects primary consumers and changes whole community structures, and (2) triggers a cascade effect modifying the ecosystem function. To address these questions, we studied the top-down effects of a small endangered fish species, Barbus meridionalis (the Mediterranean barbel), conducting an enclosure/exclosure mesocosm experiment in an intermittent stream where B. meridionalis became locally extinct following a wildfire. We found that top predator absence led to ‘mesopredator release’, and also to ‘prey release’ despite intraguild predation, which contrasts with traditional food web theory. In addition, B. meridionalis extirpation changed whole macroinvertebrate community composition and increased total macroinvertebrate density. Regarding ecosystem function, periphyton primary production decreased in apex consumer absence. In this study, the apex consumer was functionally irreplaceable; its local extinction led to the loss of an important functional role that resulted in major changes to the ecosystem’s structure and function. This study evidences that intermittent streams can be affected by the consequences of apex consumers’ extinctions, and that the loss of small-bodied top predators can lead to large ecosystem changes. We recommend the reintroduction of small-bodied apex consumers to systems where they have been extirpated, to restore ecosystem structure and function.     

Evolution of dispersal in a predator-prey metacommunity

Dispersal is crucial to allowing species inhabiting patchy or spatially subdivided habitats to persist globally despite the possibility of frequent local extinctions. Theoretical studies have repeatedly demonstrated that species that exhibit a regional metapopulation structure and are subject to increasing rates of local patch extinctions should experience strong selective pressures to disperse more rapidly despite the costs such increased dispersal would entail in terms of decreased local fitness. We extend these studies to consider how extinctions arising from predator-prey interactions affect the evolution of dispersal for species inhabiting a metacommunity. Specifically, we investigate how increasing a strong extinction-prone interaction between a predator and prey within local patches affects the evolution of each species' dispersal. We found that for the predator, as expected, evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) dispersal rates increased monotonically in response to increasing local extinctions induced by strong predator top-down effects. Unexpectedly for the prey, however, ESS dispersal rates displayed a nonmonotonic response to increasing predator-induced extinction rates-actually decreasing for a significant range of values. These counterintuitive results arise from how extinctions resulting from trophic interactions play out at different spatial scales: interactions that increase extinction rates of both species locally can, at the same time, decrease the frequency of interaction between the prey and predator at the metacommunity scale.     

Global versus local extinction in a network model of plant–pollinator communities

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of additional extinctions; the complex interactions that comprise ecological communities make the dynamics and impacts of such a cascade challenging to predict. Previous studies have typically considered global extinctions, where a species cannot re-enter a community once it is lost. However, in some cases a species only becomes locally extinct, and may be able to reinvade from surrounding communities. Here, we use a dynamic, Boolean network model of plant–pollinator community assembly to analyze the differences between global and local extinction events in mutualistic communities. As expected, we find that compared to global extinctions, communities respond to local extinctions with lower biodiversity loss, and less variation in topological network properties. We demonstrate that in the face of global extinctions, larger communities suffer greater biodiversity loss than smaller communities when similar proportions of species are lost. Conversely, smaller communities suffer greater loss in the face of local extinctions. We show that targeting species with the most interacting partners causes more biodiversity loss than random extinctions in the case of global, but not local, extinctions. These results extend our understanding of how mutualistic communities respond to species loss, with implications for community management and conservation efforts.     

Trophically unique species are vulnerable to cascading extinction

Understanding which species might become extinct and the consequences of such loss is critical. One consequence is a cascade of further, secondary extinctions. While a significant amount is known about the types of communities and species that suffer secondary extinctions, little is known about the consequences of secondary extinctions for biodiversity. Here we examine the effect of these secondary extinctions on trophic diversity, the range of trophic roles played by the species in a community. Our analyses of natural and model food webs show that secondary extinctions cause loss of trophic diversity greater than that expected from chance, a result that is robust to variation in food web structure, distribution of interactions strengths, functional response, and adaptive foraging. Greater than expected loss of trophic diversity occurs because more trophically unique species are more vulnerable to secondary extinction. This is not a straightforward consequence of these species having few links with others but is a complex function of how direct and indirect interactions affect species persistence. A positive correlation between a species' extinction probability and the importance of its loss defines high-risk species and should make their conservation a priority.     

Fear in the dark? Community‐level effects of non‐lethal predators change with light regime

The total effect of predators on prey is a combination of direct consumption, and non‐consumptive effects (NCEs), such as predator‐induced changes to prey morphology, behaviour and life history. Past research into NCEs has tended to focus on pair‐wise interactions between predators and prey, while in natural ecosystems, species exist in complex communities with several trophic levels made up of multiple autotrophic and heterotropic species. To address how predator NCEs alter the photosynthetic and heterotrophic components of communities, we exposed microbial microcosms to one of three predator treatments: live predators (full predator effect), freeze‐killed predators (NCEs only) or no predators (control), and incubated them under either 12 h:12 h light:dark conditions or continual darkness. Under 12 h:12 h light:dark conditions, NCEs‐only communities never differed from predator‐free communities, but differed from live predator communities. Under conditions of continual darkness, the structure of NCEs‐only communities differed from predator‐free controls, but not from live predator communities, suggesting NCEs can be strong enough to structure communities. Predation threat may cause certain prey to induce defences, such as reductions in movement, which make them less competitive in a community setting. This reduction in competitive ability could lead to these species being driven to extinction through interspecific competition, resulting in similar communities to those in which live predators are present. Heterotrophic species whose rates of resource acquisition depend on movement rates may be affected to a greater extent than autotrophs by predator‐induced reductions in movement, accounting for our observed differences in predator NCEs in ‘dark’ and ‘light’ communities. Our results suggest that the community‐level consequences of fear are greater in the dark. Synthesis Predators affect prey through consumptive and non‐consumptive effects (NCEs) such as alterations to prey behaviour, morphology, and life history. However, predators and prey do not exist in isolated pairs, but in complex communities where they interact with many other species. Using a long term study (>10 predator generations), we show that predator NCEs alone can alter community structure under conditions of darkness, but not in a 12h:12h light:dark cycle. Our results demonstrate for the first time that although the community‐level consequences of predator NCEs may be dramatic, they depend upon the abiotic conditions of the ecosystem.