Shifting Baselines in Antarctic Ecosystems; Ecophysiological Response to Warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island,Antarctica

The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970''s to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve''s ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.     

Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants,delays in short-distance migrants

As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long-term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42-year period, we analysed long-term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.     

Population decrease of Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera Pyralidae) under climate warming

Scirpophaga incertulas Walker is an important agricultural pest in Asia. Only few studies are available on its long-term population dynamics under climate warming. In this study, we used the linear and generalized additive models (GAMs) to analyze the historical dataset of >50 years on this pest at Xinfeng County of Jiangxi Province, China. The main objective of this study was to explore the effects of density (delayed) dependence and minimum annual temperature (MAT), which indirectly reflects climate warming, on the population dynamics of this pest. We found that both density dependence and MAT have significant influence on the annual population growth rate. The GAMs had relatively better applicability to the dataset than the linear models. Nonparametric model provided satisfactory goodness-of-fit (R(2) > 0.5). At Xinfeng County, the MAT had a significant effect on the annual population growth rate of S. incertulas. The annual population growth rate of S. incertulas decreased with increase in MAT. Therefore, S. incertulas population becomes smaller and smaller in Southern China due to climate warming. The current study has two contributions: (1) providing a suitable method for predicting the annual population growth rate of S. incertulas, and (2) demonstrating that climate warming could decrease the S. incertulas population.     

克氏针茅物候对气候变暖和水分变化的响应及其光合生理生态机制

物候对气候变化具有重要指示作用,然而现有研究主要关注植物物候变化与环境因子的关系,对于物候变化的生理生态机制研究较为缺乏。基于内蒙古自治区克氏针茅草原红外线辐射增温与控水相结合的原位模拟试验资料,探究了克氏针茅物候变化的光合生理生态机制及其对水热环境因子的响应。研究结果表明：（1）增温使克氏针茅返青期和抽穗期提前2.8 d和7.8 d、枯黄期推迟6.8 d;水热协同作用主要影响抽穗期,增温增水（气候暖湿化）较增温减水（气候暖干化）提前7.4 d。（2）增温增水使得克氏针茅返青期和抽穗期的净光合速率、气孔导度和蒸腾速率显著高于增温减水,而对水分利用效率的影响则相反（P<0.05）,增温增水与增温减水对克氏针茅枯黄期的光合生理生态特征影响无显著差异。（3）净光合速率是影响克氏针茅物候变化的决策因子,温度是影响克氏针茅植物返青期和枯黄期的限制因子,水分则是影响克氏针茅植物抽穗期的限制因子。研究发现克氏针茅物候与其光合生理生态特征和环境因子密切相关,研究结果可为植物物候模型发展和物候机理研究提供理论支撑。     

Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared with summer annual arabidopsis ecotypes

Background and AimsThe impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals, respectively.MethodsUsing a global warming scenario predicting a 4 °C temperature rise from 2011 to approx. 2080, we produced F₁ seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F₁ cohort (cool and warm) then produced F₂ seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F₂ seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.Key ResultsIn a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 d °C^–1 in the winter annual and 4.9 d °C^–1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.ConclusionsSeedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to anthropogenic climate change.     

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

In temperate trees, the timings of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water, and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been yet investigated in trees. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013–2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1,340 vs. 371 m a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease in air temperature in winter/spring resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we also found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in late summer. Budset of saplings that experienced a cooler winter was delayed by 31 days compared to the control, whereas it was delayed by only 10 days in saplings that experienced a warmer winter. Budburst timing in 2015 was not significantly impacted by the artificial advance or delay of the budburst timing in 2014, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

Changing ecophysiological processes and carbon budget in East Asian ecosystems under near-future changes in climate: implications for long-term monitoring from a process-based model

Using a process-based model, I assessed how ecophysiological processes would respond to near-future global changes predicted by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models. An ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), was applied to four sites in East Asia (different types of forest in Takayama, Tomakomai, and Fujiyoshida, Japan, and an Alpine grassland in Qinghai, China) where observational flux data are available for model calibration. The climate models predicted +1–3°C warming and slight change in annual precipitation by 2050 as a result of an increase in atmospheric CO₂. Gross primary production (GPP) was estimated to increase substantially at each site because of improved efficiency in the use of water and radiation. Although increased respiration partly offset the GPP increase, the simulation showed that these ecosystems would act as net carbon sinks independent of disturbance-induced uptake for recovery. However, the carbon budget response relied strongly on nitrogen availability, such that photosynthetic down-regulation resulting from leaf nitrogen dilution largely decreased GPP. In relation to long-term monitoring, these results indicate that the impacts of global warming may be more evident in gross fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis and respiration) than in the net CO₂ budget, because changes in these fluxes offset each other.     

Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate

Given the threatened status of many primate species, the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and, consequently, population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality, offspring production, and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates, northern muriquis, and woolly monkeys. In both species, the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Niño years, and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally, increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species, but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Niño events, whereas in northern muriquis, increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season, which itself was related, although weakly, to warm, dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming, increased drought frequency, and changes in the frequency of El Niño events could limit primate reproductive output, threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations.     

The influence of light and sea water temperature on the reproductive cycle of Lineus ruber (Heteronemertea)

The cerebral ganglia of Lineus ruber secretes a neurohormone named gonad-inhibiting hormone (GIH) controlling reproduction. As L. ruber undergoes repeated annual cycles of reproduction during its life, the way the neuroendocrine activity of the worm is seasonally regulated is an important ecophysiological question. In other words, what environmental ‘key factors’ influences the beginning of spawning season in L. ruber? In the present work we show that light is not a timer which controls the annual reproductive cycle progress of L. ruber. On the other hand our results suggest that thermoperiod is a good candidate for this function. Further work is still necessary to clarify the transduction mechanism of thermal stimuli in GIH discharge.     

Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.     

Optimal thermal conditions for corals extend poleward with oceanic warming

Aim

The capacity for poleward range expansions beyond the tropics in corals hinges on ecophysiological constraints and resulting responses to climatic variability. We aimed to determine how future warming will affect coral habitat suitability at the poleward range edges of these foundational species in the Northwest Pacific.

Location

Northwest Pacific.

Methods

We generated models integrating thermal physiological constraints of corals adapted to extreme seasonality in Hong Kong, specifically the minimum annual temperature and the proportion of time annually spent at seasonal extremes. With these models, we projected habitat suitability for five coral species under current and future climatic conditions across the Northwest Pacific.

Results

Climate model projections reveal an easing of thermal constraints on the leading-edge of coral ecophysiological limits with an expansion of thermally suitable habitat poleward by 2°–7° in latitude depending on the coral species and model considered. We also highlight a potential divergence of present and future thermal regimes that may lead to a mismatch in suitability for corals currently inhabiting high latitude reefs.

Main Conclusions

Understanding the thermal constraints on coral distributions and defining the potential range of corals under climate change is critical for adaptive management that focuses on coral conservation and ensuring ecosystem function of existing subtropical and temperate ecosystems.     

Landscape-scale patterns of shrub-species abundance in California chaparral – The role of topographically mediated resource gradients

We examine the degree to which landscape-scale spatial patterns of shrub-species abundance in California chaparral reflect topographically mediated environmental conditions, and evaluate whether these patterns correspond to known ecophysiological plant processes. Regression tree models are developed to predict spatial patterns in the abundance of 12 chaparral shrub and tree species in three watersheds of the Santa Ynez Mountains, California. The species response models are driven by five variables: average annual soil moisture, seasonal variability in soil moisture, average annual photosynthetically active radiation, maximum air temperature over the dry season (May–October), and substrate rockiness. The energy and moisture variables are derived by integrating high resolution (10 m) digital terrain data and daily climate observations with a process-based hydro-ecological model (RHESSys). Field-sampled data on species abundance are spatially integrated with the distributed environmental variables for developing and evaluating the species response models.The species considered are differentially distributed along topographically-mediated environmental gradients in ways that are consistent with known ecophysiological processes. Spatial patterns in shrub abundance are most strongly associated with annual soil moisture and solar radiation. Substrate rockiness is also closely associated with the establishment of certain species, such as Adenostoma fasciculatum and Arctostaphylos glauca. In general, species that depend on fire for seedling recruitment (e.g., Ceanothous megacarpus) occur at high abundance in xeric environments, whereas species that do not depend on fire (e.g., Heteromeles arbutifolia) occur at higher abundance in mesic environments. Model performance varies between species and is related to life history strategies for regeneration. The scale of our analysis may be less effective at capturing the processes that underlie the establishment of species that do not depend on fire for recruitment. Analysis of predication errors in relation to environmental conditions and the abundance of potentially competing species suggest factors not explicitly considered in the species response models.     

中国北方林生产力变化趋势及其影响因子分析

森林生产力是反映森林固碳能力的重要指标,是进行碳循环研究的重要环节。用模拟生态系统生物地球化学循环的CENTURY模型,模拟中国北方林(兴安落叶松林)近35a来的生产力动态,用3种趋势分析方法,检验了其变化趋势,并用多元线性回归模型分析了中国北方林生产力的年际波动与气温降水年际波动的关系,以及气温和降水对我国北方林生产力的影响程度。结果表明：中国北方林生产力呈增加的趋势,平均年增长率为0．34％;气温与森林生产力呈显著负相关,对森林生产力的贡献因子为4．0977;降水与森林生产力呈弱的正相关,其对森林生产力的贡献因子为0．3902。从而说明近35a来森林生产力的增加除了受气温降水等非生物因素的影响外,还受其它因素的影响;另外说明以气候变暖为标志的全球变化会对森林生产力产生重要的影响。     

Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non‐breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter‐annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.     

Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations

Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success.     

Potential response of dark carbon fixation to global warming in estuarine and coastal waters

Dark carbon fixation (DCF), through which chemoautotrophs convert inorganic carbon to organic carbon, is recognized as a vital process of global carbon biogeochemical cycle. However, little is known about the response of DCF processes in estuarine and coastal waters to global warming. Using radiocarbon labelling method, the effects of temperature on the activity of chemoautotrophs were investigated in benthic water of the Yangtze estuarine and coastal areas. A dome-shaped thermal response pattern was observed for DCF rates (i.e., reduced rates at lower or higher temperatures), with the optimum temperature (T_opt) varying from about 21.9 to 32.0°C. Offshore sites showed lower T_opt values and were more vulnerable to global warming compared with nearshore sites. Based on temperature seasonality of the study area, it was estimated that warming would accelerate DCF rate in winter and spring but inhibit DCF activity in summer and fall. However, at an annual scale, warming showed an overall promoting effect on DCF rates. Metagenomic analysis revealed that the dominant chemoautotrophic carbon fixation pathways in the nearshore area were Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle, while the offshore sites were co-dominated by CBB and 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycles, which may explain the differential temperature response of DCF along the estuarine and coastal gradients. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating DCF thermal response into biogeochemical models to accurately estimate the carbon sink potential of estuarine and coastal ecosystems in the context of global warming.     

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival,inhibits juvenile growth,and alters species distribution projections under climate change

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life‐cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.     

Control of the flexible annual/biennial life cycle of the heather psyllid Strophingia ericae

Abstract. Strophingia ericae (Curtis) (Homoptera: Psylloidea) takes one or two years to complete its life cycle. In both cases eggs hatch over a prolonged period from midsummer, possibly extending into the following spring at high altitude, and instars overlap in time. Instar III is the predominant overwintering stage in the lowland, annual cycle, whereas in the upland, biennial cycle most first-year nymphs overwinter in instars I and II and most second-year nymphs in instar V. When moved to the laboratory, instars IV and V from a predominantly annual population showed accelerated development in response to elevated temperatures and to long days in both mid-winter and early spring. In the biennial life cycle, short autumn days retard instar V development but the response to photoperiod disappears by the end of winter. Exposure to LD 18 : 6 h retarded development of early instars in the annual population, resulting in an accumulation in instar III. The proportion of overwintering instars I and II rises with increase in altitude and moult to instar III becomes progressively delayed. Nymphs that reach instar III under long daylengths in the year following hatching are channelled towards the biennial cycle. Exposure of a predominantly biennial population to 15 °C and LD 18 : 6 h after midsummer, thus avoiding autumn conditions, promoted the rapid development of overwintered nymphs, switching the cycle from biennial to annual.     

Experimental warming studies on tree species and forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperature affects a cascade of ecological processes and functions of forests. With future higher global temperatures being inevitable it is critical to understand and predict how forest ecosystems and tree species will respond. This paper reviews experimental warming studies in boreal and temperate forests or tree species beyond the direct effects of higher temperature on plant ecophysiology by scaling up to forest level responses and considering the indirect effects of higher temperature. In direct response to higher temperature (1) leaves emerged earlier and senesced later, resulting in a longer growing season (2) the abundance of herbivorous insects increased and their performance was enhanced and (3) soil nitrogen mineralization and leaf litter decomposition were accelerated. Besides these generalizations across species, plant ecophysiological traits were highly species-specific. Moreover, we showed that the effect of temperature on photosynthesis is strongly dependent on the position of the leaf or plant within the forest (canopy or understory) and the time of the year. Indirect effects of higher temperature included among others higher carbon storage in trees due to increased soil nitrogen availability and changes in insect performance due to alterations in plant ecophysiological traits. Unfortunately only a few studies extrapolated results to forest ecosystem level and considered the indirect effects of higher temperature. Thus more intensive, long-term studies are needed to further confirm the emerging trends shown in this review. Experimental warming studies provide us with a useful tool to examine the cascade of ecological processes in forest ecosystems that will change with future higher temperature.