基于作物生物量估计的区域冬小麦单产预测

基于2004年中国冬小麦主产区黄淮海平原典型区内石家庄、衡水和邢台3市45个县（市）83个地面典型样区冬小麦地面实测作物单产数据、光合有效辐射、光合有效辐射分量以及相应的气象和土壤湿度数据,建立了简化的冬小麦光能转化有机物效率系数模型,基于冬小麦关键生育期（3—5月）累积作物生物量并采用地面实测的冬小麦收获指数加以校正,建立了作物生物量与作物经济产量间的定量关系,预测了2004年河北和山东平原区235个县（市）的冬小麦单产,并依据国家公布的2004年各县冬小麦统计单产验证了估产的精度.结果表明：该模型预测的2004年研究区冬小麦单产的均方根误差（RMSE）为238.5 kg·hm^-2,平均相对误差为4.28%,达到了大范围估产的精度要求,证明利用以遥感数据估算作物生物量进而预测冬小麦单产的方法是可行的.     

基于MODIS-NDVI的区域冬小麦遥感估产——以山东省济宁市为例

以黄淮海平原冬小麦主产区山东省济宁市为研究实例,利用遥感方法,采用250 m分辨率经过Savitzky-Golay滤波技术平滑处理的MODIS-NDVI遥感数据对冬小麦产量进行预测.研究选取了冬小麦关键生育期内0.2～0.8范围的旬NDVI数据,并建立了其与冬小麦产量的关系.同时,采用逐步回归方法筛选建立冬小麦关键生育期旬NDVI与冬小麦产量间关系的估产模型.利用地面实测冬小麦产量数据,对所建的估产模型进行精度检验,结果表明,估产相对误差在-3.6％～3.9％之间.表明利用Savitzky-Golay滤波技术平滑后的作物关键生育期内MODIS-NDVI遥感数据进行冬小麦估产,其方法精度较高,具有一定的可行性.     

冬小麦单产的光谱数据估测模型研究

 本文在分析冬小麦群体经济产量与叶面积系数关系的基础上,以地面实测冬小麦反射光谱数据为依据,提出了一种新的动态VI-产量模型,即LAD-产量模型。该模型具有冬小麦生育后期(抽穗一灌浆末期)光合面积和光合时间等信息,其冬小麦单位面积产量(简称单产)估测精度为98%。另外,本文根据常用的某一特定生育期VI-产量模型,用冬小麦各生育期的VI值分别估测小麦单产,确定山东省禹城市冬小麦的灌浆中期为最佳估产时间。此时期．小麦单产估测精度为96%。     

基于遥感与模型耦合的冬小麦生长预测

遥感的空间性、实时性与作物生长模型的过程性、机理性优势互补,将两者有效耦合已成为提高作物生长监测预测能力的重要手段之一。提出了一种基于地空遥感信息与生长模型耦合的冬小麦预测方法,该方法基于初始化/参数化策略,以不同生育时期的小麦叶面积指数(LAI)和叶片氮积累量(LNA)为信息融合点将地面光谱数据(ASD)及HJ-1 A/B CCD、Landsat-5 TM数据与冬小麦生长模型(WheatGrow)耦合,反演得到区域尺度生长模型运行时难以准确获取的部分管理措施参数(播种期、播种量和施氮量),在此基础上实现了对冬小麦生长的有效预测。实例分析结果表明,LNA较LAI对模型更敏感,以之作为耦合点的反演效果较好。另外,抽穗期是遥感信息与生长模型耦合的最佳时机,对播种期、播种量和施氮量反演的RMSE值分别达到5.32 d、14.81 kg/hm²、14.11 kg/hm²。生长模型与遥感耦合后的模拟结果很好地描述了冬小麦长势和生产力指标的时空分布状况,长势指标的模拟相对误差小于0.25,籽粒产量模拟的相对误差小于0.1。因此研究结果可为区域尺度冬小麦生长的监测预测提供重要理论依据。     

利用亚像元尺度信息改进区域冬小麦生长的模拟

为了探寻遥感观测面尺度与作物模型模拟点尺度不匹配问题的解决方案并改善区域作物生长模拟精度,以河南省鹤壁市为研究区,以冬小麦为研究对象,基于MODIS、Landsat 8遥感数据和Wheat SM作物生长模型,通过MODIS LAI过程线重建、亚像元尺度信息提取、集合卡尔曼滤波同化等方法,进行了冬小麦生长模拟的研究。结果表明:通过MODIS LAI过程线重建并提取亚像元尺度信息,冬小麦纯度在80%以上的遥感反演LAI与冬小麦两个关键生育期实测冠层LAI的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.69,以最近邻域法赋值到整个模拟区域,研究区2013—2017年模拟总产和实际总产相比的RMSE在未同化遥感反演的LAI信息时为6.73×108kg,同化未利用亚像元尺度信息调整的遥感估算LAI时,RMSE上升到8.24×108kg,同化利用亚像元尺度信息分区赋值的遥感LAI时,RMSE下降到3.48×108kg。利用亚像元尺度信息生成与作物模型时空尺度匹配的格点化LAI遥感产品,可提高作物生长模型区域化应用的精度。     

基于PROSAIL模型的水稻田缨帽三角-叶面积指数模型及其应用

缨帽三角(tasseled cap triangle,TCT)-叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)等值线模型是一种反映植被叶面积指数等值线在红光(Red)-近红外(NIR)波段反射率组成的光谱空间中分布规律的模型,在此基础上建立LAI遥感反演模型比常用的统计关系模型更加精确.本文利用水稻田实测数据,验证了PROSAIL模型对水稻冠层反射率模拟的适用性,并对模型的输入参数进行率定,最终确定了PROSAIL模型模拟水稻冠层反射率的输入参数的取值范围.在此基础上构建了水稻田TCT-LAI等值线模型,建立了LAI遥感反演所需的查找表,将其分别用于Landsat 8和WorldView 3数据进行水稻田LAI反演.结果表明: 利用基于TCT-LAI等值线模型建立查找表反演的LAI与实测LAI具有良好的线性相关关系,R²=0.76,RMSE=0.47;与Landsat 8的LAI反演结果相比,WorldView 3反演的LAI值域范围更大,数据分布更离散.将Landsat 8、WorldView 3反射率数据重采样至1 km后进行LAI反演, MODIS LAI 产品的反演结果存在明显低估现象.     

基于地面高光谱和GF-1卫星的区域花生LAI估算

掌握作物叶面积指数(LAI)及其动态变化对于作物生长监测和估产等有重要意义。利用地面高光谱数据进行作物生长参数的反演是农业遥感研究的热点,但其中大多是利用地面高光谱数据建立作物LAI的估算模型研究,难以进行区域化应用。为把地面高光谱研究结果应用到卫星尺度,实现区域花生LAI的反演,从而对大面积花生长势进行监测,本文利用GF-1卫星传感器的光谱响应函数和地面高光谱数据,在试验站小区试验和大田试验基础上,基于地面观测光谱数据构建多种宽波段光谱指数,建立基于高光谱指数的花生LAI遥感估算模型。通过比较估算模型的决定系数和验证精度,认为基于RVI指数建立的模型(LAI=0.481RVI^0.830)是LAI估算的最佳模型。基于最优模型进行花生LAI遥感制图,获得花生LAI分布情况。利用野外试验观测数据验证遥感反演LAI精度,结果表明,利用宽波段指数和GF-1适用于花生LAI估算,对今后进行大面积花生长势监测有重要意义。     

森林冠层叶面积指数遥感反演——以小兴安岭五营林区为例

以中国东北小兴安岭五营林区为研究区,基于MODIS BRDF遥感模型参数产品数据,首先利用4-Scale模型建立查找表计算像元尺度上各组分比例,估算研究区森林乔木冠层反射率,然后利用冠层反射率数据,获取研究区3种常用森林冠层植被指数,最后基于植被指数与实测叶面积指数构建研究区冠层叶面积指数反演模型,并选取最优模型实现研究区森林冠层叶面积指数反演。结果表明:研究区冠层LAI遥感反演模型中,基于比值植被指数SR(simple ratio,SR)构建的二次多项式反演模型精度最高,且反演精度比未考虑背景反射影响的SR反演模型精度有较大幅度提高,模型决定系数由0.38提高至0.54;反演获取的研究区冠层LAI在2.38~12.67,平均值6.52,LAI值在阔叶林区域相对较高。     

三江平原湿地植被叶面积指数遥感估算模型

利用中巴资源卫星CBERS-02影像提取的归一化植被指数(NDVI)和同期野外实测的叶面积指数(LAI)数据,分析了三江平原洪河自然保护区草甸、沼泽植被、灌丛和岛状林4种湿地植被及样本总体的NDVI与LAI之间的相关关系,建立了NDVI与不同湿地植被类型叶面积指数间的线性和非线性回归模型,并制作完成洪河自然保护区LAI空间分布图.结果表明,整个研究区样本总体的LAI估算效果不太理想,其NDVI与LAI的相关性仅为0.523;将研究区分为草甸、沼泽、灌丛和岛状林4种湿地植被类型,NDVI与各植被型LAI的相关性和估算效果均有很大程度的提高,所建立的LAI遥感反演模型以三次曲线回归方程拟合精度最高,R2分别达到0.723、0.588、0.837、0.720.以上结果表明,结合地面实测数据并基于遥感植被分类的基础上,CBERS-02遥感影像可用于较大区域内湿地植被生理参数的反演研究.     

植被叶面积指数遥感反演的尺度效应及空间变异性

遥感作为宏观生态学研究中数据获取的一种便捷手段,有助于把握较大尺度内生态学现象的特征.应用遥感数据反演LAI时,由于像元的异质性,不同尺度遥感数据之间的转换是遥感发展的一个重要问题.以河北省黄骅市为研究区,在利用TM和MODIS遥感数据对芦苇LAI反演误差产生原因进行分析的基础上,利用半变异函数对像元空间异质性进行了定量描述.发现NDVI算法的非线性带给LAI尺度转换的误差很小,而LAI的空间异质性则是引起LAI尺度效应的根本原因.并且当像元内空间异质性很大时半变异函数的基台值比纯像元要大得多,空间自相关的程度是引起LAI尺度转换误差的主要原因;反之,像元内空间异质性不大时,随机误差是引起LAI尺度转换误差的主要原因.当像元为纯像元时,由像元异质性引起的反演误差基本可以忽略.此外,研究区芦苇的空间相关有效尺度约为360m,超过此距离空间相关性则不复存在.     

A Study on the Model for Estimation Winter Wheat Yield Using Spectral Data of Wheat Field

A new dynamic vegetation index (VI)-yield model, that is, the leaf area duration (LAD)-yield model was structured for estimating winter wheat yield according to the measured reflection spectral data on the wheat field, and the relationship between wheat yield and LAI. The model had the information on the photosynthetic area and time during the later period of wheat growth, i. e., the period from the heading stage to the end of filling stage. The accuracy of the estimated wheat yield arrived up to 98% .In addition, the winter wheat yield was also estimated by a VI-yield model in a given wheat growing stage, and the VI in several main wheat growing stages were used for this purpose. The results suggested that the best season for estimating wheat yield using the VI-yield model was in the middle of wheat filling stage for the case study in Yucheng, Shandong province. The accuracy of the estimation could arrive at 96%.     

基于遥感信息的作物模型重新初始化/参数化方法研究初探

作物模型与遥感信息的结合有助于利用遥感监测的大范围植被信息解决作物模型区域应用时模型初始状态和参数值难以确定的问题。该文借助叶面积指数(LAI)将经过华北冬小麦(Triticum aestivium)适应性调整的WOFOST模型与经参数调整检验的SAIL-PROSPECT模型相嵌套,利用嵌套模型模拟作物冠层的土壤调整植被指数(SAVI),在代表点上借助FSEOPT优化程序使模拟SAVI_s与MODIS遥感数据合成SAVI_m的差异达到最小,从而对WOFOST模型重新初始化。结果表明,借助于遥感信息,出苗期的重新初始化使模拟成熟期与按实际出苗期模拟的结果相差在2天以内,模拟的LAI和总干重的误差比按实际出苗期模拟结果的误差降低3~8个百分点;返青期生物量的重新初始化使模拟LAI和地上总干重在关键发育时刻的误差降至16%以内,模拟LAI和贮存器官重在整个生育期内都更加接近实测值;对返青期生物量的动态调整显示返青到抽穗期间较少次数的遥感数据即能有效地提高作物模型的模拟效果。与国外同类研究相比,该文在作物模型本地化、重新初始化变量和优化比较对象的选择上都有所不同,而利用遥感数据动态调整作物模型初始状态或参数值更具有新意。该文对区域尺度上利用遥感信息优化作物模型的研究具有基础性、探讨性意义。     

Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO₂ concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO₂ effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.     

Fertilization regulates the response of wheat yield to interannual temperature variation in North China

Aims Understanding the effect of long-term fertilization on the sensitivity of grain yield to temperature changes is critical for accurately assessing the impact of global warming on crop production. In this study, we aim to assess the impacts of temperature changes on grain yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under different fertilization treatments in a long-term manipulative experiment in North China.Methods We measured grain yields of winter wheat under four fertilization treatments at the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station each year from 1993 to 2012. We also measured air temperature at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000h each day since 1 January 1980. We then used the first-difference method and simple linear regression models to examine the relationship of crop yield changes to mean air temperature, mean daytime and nighttime air temperature in crop growing seasons.Important findings We found that increases in mean daily temperature, mean daytime temperature and mean nighttime temperature each had a positive impact on the grain yield of winter wheat. Grain yield increased by 16.7–85.6% for winter wheat in response to a 1°C increase in growing season mean daily temperature. Winter wheat yield was more sensitive to variations of nighttime temperature than to that of daytime temperature. The observed temperature impacts also varied across different fertilization treatments. Balanced fertilization significantly enhanced grain yields for winter wheat under a warming climate. Wheat plots treated with nitrogen and phosphorous balanced fertilization (NPK- and NP-treated plots) were more responsive to temperature changes than those without. This report provides direct evidence of how temperature change impacts grain yields under different fertilization treatments, which is useful for crop management in a changing global climate.     

Wheat leaf traits monitoring based on machine learning algorithms and high-resolution satellite imagery

The leaf, which is a crucial indicator for evaluating crop status, plays an important role in plants' functions. Determining and monitoring leaf parameters can facilitate the detection and estimation of crop yield, which is essential for food security. Crop monitoring by remote sensing technology is critical to support crop production, especially over large scales. In this study, we developed a methodology to estimate leaf parameters based entirely on vegetation indices (VIs) from remotely sensed imagery in wheat under different management practices. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the utility of VIs calculated from the sentinel-2 data in estimating the Leaf area index (LAI) and leaf parameters at wheat farms using machine learning algorithms. Leaf parameters included leaf dry weight (LDW), specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf specific weight (SLW), and machine learning algorithms were SVM (support vector machine), ANN (artificial neural network) and DNN (deep neural network). Leaf parameters were measured at several developmental stages of wheat in two contrasting environments in the southern Iran. The results demonstrated that the DNN algorithm could efficiently predict leaf parameters in the southern Iran with an overall precision of >72%, which assessed the potential of employing DNN to achieve the temporal and spatial distribution data of wheat based on the Sentinel-2 imagery. The validation of the DNN model generally showed high accuracy (R = 0.80, RMSE = 1.19, and MAE = 0.98) between observed and estimated LAI values when this model was used. NDVI was also highly sensitive to wheat LDW and SLA parameters, with a good correlation between field measurements and those predicted by the DNN model from sentinel-2 imagery, with the R values of 0.66 and 0.85, respectively. Further, NDVI and PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) were linearly correlated with SLW across both temporal and spatial scales (R = 0.79). Among VIs considered from sentinel-2 imagery to predict wheat leaf parameters, NDVI was more sensitive than other VIs. This research, thus, indicated that using sentinel-2 data within a DNN model could provide a comparatively precise and robust prediction of leaf parameters and yield valuable insights into crop management with high temporal and spatial accuracy.