Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Population ecology of an afro-tropical savanna herb,Lapeirousia rivularis,in Zambia

Detailed demographic studies of herbaceuos plants in afro-tropicalsavannas are extremely rare in published literature. I studied phenology andpopulation dynamics of a perennial herb, Lapeirousiarivularis Wanntorp, at a savanna site in Zambia over a 4-yearperiod, from 1997 to 2001, using enumeration techniques in permanent andtemporary quadrants. The age of the plants was accurately determined frompersistent annual sheaths that accumulate around the corm throughout the lifeofthe plant while the estimated survivorship of the 1998 cohort was developedfroma mathematical model based on the observed mortality of the cohort over a3-yearperiod.L. rivularis completed its annual phenological cycle in asingle rainy season. Plants sprouted from perennating corms in early December,flowered, fruited and dispersed seeds by end of January. Seeds germinatedimmediately after dispersal and seedlings produced small corms before aerialparts died early in the dry season. L. rivularis has twomorphs: a vegetative morph and a reproductive morph; the latter bears severalleaves and flower stalks. In the vegetative morph, the corm is renewed annuallywhile the corms of the reproductive morph did not appear to be renewed. Insteadcorms grew larger and produced lateral daughter corms that became independentramets the following rainy season.Most L. rivularis plants reached reproductive maturitywhen they were 6–10 years old. Reproductive success, seedlingestablishment and recruitment varied from year to year in the grassland plotperhaps because of fluctuations in weather conditions and heavy episodic insectherbivory. The survivorship curve of L. rivularis wascharacteristically concave due to high juvenile mortality (0.2–0.5) andvery low adult mortality (0.03). Although about 3% of the plants live to be upto 30–35 years, the mean age of the population in 2001 was 6.4 yearsbecause of the predominance of juvenile plants. The production of a protectivesheath at the end of the rainy season and the accumulation of old sheathsaroundthe fleshy corm are apparent adaptations against desiccation during the longdryseason drought when the topsoil remains below wilting point. The high juvenilemortality during the dry season is probably caused by inadequate protection bythe few sheaths around the corm against desiccation.Population dynamics in L. rivularis were caused byvariable annual recruitment and high juvenile mortality. Population densitydoubled in 1999 due to good fruiting success in the previous season that wasassociated with good weather conditions and negligible herbivory. Althoughcultivation had a significant negative effect on the population of L.rivularis, it increased consistency in fruiting success andproduction of fruits per plant, presumably because of improvement insoil-moisture status, reduction in plant competition and by providing temporalescape from insect herbivory through delayed flowering. The phenology and lifehistory of L. rivularis exhibit adaptations to a savannaenvironment that is characterized by disturbance and stress caused by seasonaldrought, fire, episodic herbivory and cultivation.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries - The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the...     

Fish biology and fisheries ecology of the Salton Sea, California

Studies of the fisheries ecology and fish biology of the Salton Sea, California, were conducted in 1999 and 2000 using 50 m gill nets in river, nearshore, pelagic, and estuarine areas. Total lengths and weights were measured for all fish captured, and sub-samples were dissected for gonad weights and aging. Ten fish species were captured of which a hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicusx O. urolepis hornorum) was dominant by number and weight. Nearshore and estuarine areas had highest catch rates (over 11 kg h^–1 net^–1 for tilapia). Rivers were richest in the number of species (6 of 10 species were exclusively riverine), but lowest in fish abundance. Orangemouth corvina (Cynoscion xanthulus), bairdiella (Bairdiella icistia), sargo (Anisotremus davidsoni), and tilapia grew faster, but had shorter life spans than conspecifics elsewhere and Salton Sea conspecifics of 50 years ago. Reproduction occurred mostly in the nearshore and estuarine areas. Onset of reproduction of bairdiella and sargo was in the spring and extended through the beginning of summer. Reproduction of orangemouth corvina started in the summer and of tilapia in the spring. Reproduction of orangemouth corvina and tilapia extended through the fall. Gender ratios of tilapia were skewed toward males in all areas, except the rivers, where females predominated. All four species aggregated along the nearshore and estuarine areas in the summer when dissolved oxygen in the pelagic area was limited. Any restoration alternative for the Salton Sea should consider areas close to shore as primary areas for fish reproduction and survival.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.     

Population biology of salt marsh and sand dune annuals

Annuals represent a significant component of the vegetation of coastal salt marshes and sand dunes. From many points of view, the two habitats might appear to have little in common. Yet both are characterized by episodes of low water potential, marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity and a zonation which, within certain limits, reflects successional change.There are also similarities of distribution. Annuals are dominant usually in the pioneer stages; the Salicornia-dominated low marsh areas are perhaps analogues with strandline ephemeral populations (e.g. Cakile maritima) on the fore-dunes. In mature stages, annuals are associated with small gaps in the matrix of perennials, at least some of these arising from drought or disturbance. Nevertheless populations can reach very high densities.The most striking contrast is phenological; only summer annuals are found on marshes, whereas winter annuals predominate on dunes (except for the strandline). Similarly there is a difference in species richness. Rather few species of annual are typical of marshes while a great many are found on dunes.Properties of the seed bank, survival, reproduction and population regulation are compared in marsh and dune annuals, with special reference to Cakile, Salicornia, Rhinanthus and Vulpia. Interpretations are suggested which take account of environmental predictability and heterogeneity. Finally, the general applicability of simple mathematical models of these populations in the different coastal habitats is considered.Nomenclature follows Clapham, Tutin & Warburg (1981) except where otherwise stated.     

Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of enchytraeids: a meta-analysis approach

The expectation that atmospheric warming will be most pronounced at higher latitudes means that Arctic and montane systems, with predominantly organic soils, will be particularly influenced by climate change. One group of soil fauna, the enchytraeids, is commonly the major soil faunal component in specific biomes, frequently exceeding above‐ground fauna in biomass terms. These organisms have a crucial role in carbon turnover in organic rich soils and seem particularly sensitive to temperature changes. In order to predict the impacts of climate change on this important group of soil organisms we reviewed data from 44 published papers using a combination of conventional statistical techniques and meta‐analysis. We focused on the effects of abiotic factors on total numbers of enchytraeids (a total of 611 observations) and, more specifically, concentrated on total numbers, vertical distribution and age groupings of the well‐studied species Cognettia sphagnetorum (228 observations). The results highlight the importance of climatic factors, together with vegetation and soil type in determining global enchytraeid distribution; in particular, cold and wet environments with mild summers are consistently linked to greater densities of enchytraeids. Based on the upper temperature distribution limits reported in the literature, and identified from our meta‐analyses, we also examined the probable future geographical limits of enchytraeid distribution in response to predicted global temperature changes using the HadCM3 model climate output for the period between 2010 and 2100. Based on the existing data we identify that a maximum mean annual temperature threshold of 16 °C could be a critical limit for present distribution of field populations, above which their presence would decline markedly, with certain key species, such as C. sphagnetorum, being totally lost from specific regions. We discuss the potential implications for carbon turnover in these organic soils where these organisms currently dominate and, consequently, their future role as C sink/source in response to climate change.