Increases in disturbance and reductions in habitat size interact to suppress predator body size

Food webs are strongly size‐structured so will be vulnerable to changes in environmental factors that affect large predators. However, mechanistic understanding of environmental controls of top predator size is poorly developed. We used streams to investigate how predator body size is altered by three fundamental climate change stressors: reductions in habitat size, increases in disturbance and warmer temperatures. Using new survey data from 74 streams, we showed that habitat size and disturbance were the most important stressors influencing predator body size. A synergistic interaction between that habitat size and disturbance due to flooding meant the sizes of predatory fishes peaked in large, benign habitats and their body size decreased as habitats became either smaller or harsher. These patterns were supported by experiments indicating that habitat‐size reductions and increased flood disturbance decreased both the abundance and biomass of large predators. This research indicates that interacting climate change stressors can influence predator body size, resulting in smaller predators than would be predicted from examining an environmental factor in isolation. Thus, climate‐induced changes to key interacting environmental factors are likely to have synergistic impacts on predator body size which, because of their influence on the strength of biological interactions, will have far‐reaching effects on food‐web responses to global environmental change.     

Regulation of bacterial assemblages in oligotrophic plankton systems: results from experimental and empirical approaches

Bacteria are relevant members of planktonic food webs, both in terms of biomass and production share. The assessment and comprehension of the factors that control bacterial abundance and production are, thus, necessary to understand how carbon and nutrients circulate in planktonic food webs. It is commonly believed that bacterial abundance, activity and production are either determined by the available nutrient levels (‘bottom-up’ control) or by the effect of predators (‘top-down’). These factors have also been shown to regulate the internal structure (the physiological and phylogenetic structure) of the bacterioplankton black box. We present here different empirical and experimental ways in which the factors that control bacterial communities are assessed, among them, the direct comparison of the rates of bacterial growth and losses to grazing. Application of several of these methods to open ocean data suggests that bacteria are regulated by resources at the largest scales of analysis, but that this overall regulation is strongly modulated by predators in all types of systems. In the most oligotrophic environments, bacterial abundance and growth are regulated by predators, while in the richest environments it is bacterial (phylogenetic, size, activity) community composition that is most affected by protist predators, while abundance can be influenced by metazoans. Because changes in bacterial community composition require that bacteria have enough nutrient supply, the overall effect of these regulations is that bacterial growth appears to be top-down regulated in the most nutrient-poor environments and bottom-up regulated in the richer ones. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Critical indirect effects of climate change on sub‐Antarctic ecosystem functioning

Sub‐Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land‐based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub‐Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; “island mass effect”; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long‐term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long‐term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate‐driven shift in the position of the sub‐Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore‐feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of offshore‐feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways within this island ecosystem may be detected throughout the food web, demonstrating that the most powerful effects of climate change on marine systems may be indirect.     

Ecological effects of longline fishing and climate change on the pelagic ecosystem off eastern Australia

Pelagic longline fisheries target (or catch incidently) large apex predators in the open ocean (e.g. tunas, billfish and sharks) and have the potential to disrupt the ecosystem functionality if these predators exert strong top–down control. In contrast, warming of oceans from climate change may increase bottom–up effects from increases in primary productivity. An ecosystem model of a large pelagic ecosystem off eastern Australia was constructed to explore the potential ecological effects of climate change and longlining by Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. The model reproduced historic biomass and fishery catch trends from 1952 to 2006 for seven functional groups. Simulated changes in fishing effort and fishing mortality rate on individual target species from 2008 to 2018 resulted in only modest (<20%) changes in the biomass of target species and their direct predators or competitors. A simulated increase in phytoplankton biomass due to climate change resulted in only small increases (<11%) in the biomass of all groups. However, climate-related changes to the biomass of micronekton fish (−20%) and cephalopods (+50%) resulted in trophic cascades. Our results suggest there may be ecological redundancy among high trophic level predators since they share a diverse suite of prey and collectively only represent <1% of the total system biomass. In contrast, micronekton fishes and cephalopods have high biomasses and high production and consumption rates and are important as both prey and predators. They appear to exert ‘wasp–waist’ control of the ecosystem rather than top–down or bottom–up processes reported to drive other pelagic systems.     

The influence of habitat on the size distribution of groupers in the upper Florida Keys

Synopsis The influence of habitat on the size distribution of groupers was examined at sites in the middle and upper Florida Keys. Transects were used to quantify the size distribution of groupers at study sites. There were significant differences in the size distribution of groupers within and among reef community types related to differences in species composition and patch reef size. Groupers with a giant life-history style (Sullivan & de Garine 1994) were more abundant, but smaller, on inshore patch reefs than offshore reef community types. However, grouper species with a dwarf life-history style (Sullivan & de Garine 1994) showed an opposite pattern with a lower abundance, but larger size, inshore than offshore. The length category of groupers constituting the majority of individuals observed on patch reefs was inversely related to reef size. Graysby Epinephelus cruentatus were shown to recruit to deeper (15–20 m), low-relief habitats offshore. Several factors influenced the size distribution of groupers in the study sites including habitat type, spear-fishing, competition, predation, and recruitment.     

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T _max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).     

The feeding habits of six pelagic and predatory teleosts in eastern Cape coastal waters (South Africa)

A four-year study of the feeding habits of six pelagic teleost species in eastern Cape coastal waters of South Africa is analysed. These predators are Lichia amia, Pomatomus sallatrix, Seriola lalandi, Atractoscion aequidens, Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus albacares. All species occur in inshore coastal water (< 1 -8 km from shore) for at least part of the year. The tunas were also sampled from the edge of the continental shelf (40–50 km from shore). The use of squid 'beaks' and fish otoliths allowed accurate prey identification and size estimates. Variations in prey taken are attributed to differences in locality, predator species and size. Three pelagic fish species are important to all the predators: Sardinops ocettata, Etrumeus teres and Engraulis capensis. The inshore squid, Loligo reynaudi, is another major prey item. Offshore tuna samples revealed a different prey spectrum, viz. oceanic squid and saury, Scomberesox saurus, being taken frequently.     

Predator-induced plasticity in guppy (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Poecilia reticulata</Emphasis>) life history traits

A number of invertebrates show predator-induced plasticity in life-history and morphological traits that are considered adaptive. Evidence is accumulating that vertebrates may also adjust their life-history traits in response to predators; however, some of the patterns of plasticity, which appear to be an adaptive response specifically to the risk of size-selective predation, may instead result from reduced foraging in response to predator presence. Here, we describe a study of predator-induced plasticity in guppies (Poecilia reticulata). We have predicted that the plastic response to cues from a small, gape-limited, natural predator of guppies, the killlifish (Rivulus hartii), would be the opposite of that caused by reduced food intake. We have found that male guppies increased their size at maturity, both length and mass, in response to the non-lethal presence of this predator. This pattern of plasticity is the opposite of that observed in response to reduced food intake, where male guppies reduce size at maturity. The increase in size at maturity that we observed would likely reduce predation on adult male guppies by this native predator because it is gape-limited and can only eat juvenile and small adult guppies. This size advantage would be important especially because male guppies grow very little after maturity. Therefore, the pattern of plasticity that we observed is likely adaptive. In contrast, female guppies showed no significant response in size at first parturition to the experimental manipulation; however, we did find evidence suggesting that females may produce more, smaller offspring in response to cues from this predator.     

The climate of the Younger Dryas as a boundary for Einkorn domestication

The domestication of the Neolithic founder crops of the Near East has recently been a topic of debate particularly with respect to how rapidly the domestication of these crops occurred. One school of thought maintains that these processes lasted several thousand years (‘protracted model’ with ‘gathering’, ‘cultivation’ and ‘domestication’ as three stages of a continuum, each taking up to several thousand years), while another favors the view that domestication occurred much more quickly, over several hundred years at most (‘rapid transition’). Our study focuses on one of these crops, 1-grained domesticated Einkorn wheat, incorporating data from geology, vegetation history, and climate. In the Karacadağ region of southeastern Turkey, where 1-grained Einkorn wheat was domesticated, the climate was severe (i.e. cold and dry) during the Younger Dryas. The climate of the Younger Dryas acted as boundary during which a) conditions were not suitable for ‘cultivation’, and b) Einkorn would have retreated to refugia exhibiting more suitable moisture-bearing soils that would have made ‘gathering’ difficult. Around 11600 cal. b.p., the Younger Dryas ended and a very rapid climatic amelioration commenced at the beginning of the Early Holocene, enabling grasses to spread throughout the region. A ritual PPNA/PPNB site (G?bekli Tepe) and associated PPNB settlements such as Nevali ?ori and ?ay?nü were established at this time. In the settlements of Nevali ?ori and Cafer H?yük, the oldest domesticated Einkorn was found in the earliest archaeological layers. This confirms that the inhabitants made use of domesticated 1-grained Einkorn from the very beginning of settlement activity, although they continued to practice a mixed lifestyle as hunter-gatherers and farmers. For ?ay?nü the issue is more complex, but here domesticated Einkorn also appears around the same time. In summary, by 10400 cal. b.p. domesticated 1-grained Einkorn was present in large quantities at a variety of sites. This would give a maximum window of time lasting approximately 1,200 years and is therefore not in agreement with the ‘protracted’ model but would be consistent with a ‘rapid transition’. It is improbable that the ‘cultivation’ of wild Einkorn was practiced in the Karacadağ region, since wild Einkorn was plentiful during the favorable growing conditions following the Younger Dryas, making it more likely that ‘gathering’ would have been practiced. Because Einkorn has not been found in early settlements in the southern Levant, this crop cannot have been ‘gathered’ and ‘cultivated’ there but instead was ‘domesticated’ independently and solely in southeastern Turkey. Therefore, the YD acts as a boundary, providing a maximum time frame for 1-grained Einkorn domestication.