Ephemeral Pleistocene woodlands connect the dots for highland rattlesnakes of the Crotalus intermedius group

Aim To test how Pleistocene climatic changes affected diversification of the Crotalus intermedius species complex. Location Highlands of Mexico and the south‐western United States (Arizona). Methods We synthesize the matrilineal genealogy based on 2406 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA sequences, fossil‐calibrated molecular dating, reconstruction of ancestral geographic ranges, and climate‐based modelling of species distributions to evaluate the history of female dispersion. Results The presently fragmented distribution of the C. intermedius group is the result of both Neogene vicariance and Pleistocene pine–oak habitat fragmentation. Most lineages appear to have a Quaternary origin. The Sierra Madre del Sur and northern Sierra Madre Oriental are likely to have been colonized during this time. Species distribution models for the Last Glacial Maximum predict expansions of suitable habitat for taxa in the southern Sierra Madre Occidental and northern Sierra Madre Oriental. Main conclusions Lineage diversification in the C. intermedius group is a consequence of Pleistocene climate cycling. Distribution models for two sister taxa in the northern and southern Sierra Madre Occidental and northern Sierra Madre Oriental during the Last Glacial Maximum provide evidence for the expansion of pine–oak habitat across the Central Mexican Plateau. Downward displacement and subsequent expansions of highland vegetation across Mexico during cooler glacial cycles may have allowed dispersal between highlands, which resulted in contact between previously isolated taxa and the colonization of new habitats.     

Environmental suitability for Agrilus auroguttatus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Mexico using MaxEnt and database records of four Quercus (Fagaceae) species

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Prioritizing conservation areas and vulnerability analyses of the genus Pinus L. (Pinaceae) in Mexico

Mexico hosts the highest species richness of pines (Pinus, Pinaceae) worldwide; however, the priority areas for their conservation in the country are unknown. In this study, the ecological niche of the 50 native pine species was modeled. Then, through a multi-criteria analysis, the priority areas for the conservation of the genus Pinus were identified according to the spatial patterns of richness, geographic rareness, irreplaceability, the level of vulnerability of their habitat and the status of legal protection. The results revealed that the regions with high species richness differed from those with high endemism. Also, most pine species have undergone processes of habitat degradation, having been the endemic species the most affected. The priority areas covered regions with high species richness, high endemism, and highly degraded forests, located at mountainous portions of the Baja California Peninsula, the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Sierra Madre Oriental, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and the Sierra Madre del Sur. A low proportion of priority areas overlapped with protected areas or terrestrial regions considered priorities for biological conservation. These results suggest that conservation efforts for this genus should be focused beyond regions with high species richness and current protected areas. Besides, the priority areas identified in this study can be the basis to create biological corridors and new protected areas, which could contribute significantly to the conservation of this genus in Mexico.     

Phylogeography of the bark beetle Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Dendroctonus mexicanus is polyphagous within the Pinus genus and has a wide geographical distribution in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the pattern of genetic variation across the range of this species to explore its demographic history and its phylogeographic pattern. Analysis of the mtDNA sequences of 173 individuals from 25 Mexican populations allowed to us identify 53 geographically structured haplotypes. High haplotype and low nucleotide diversities and Tajima’s D indicate that D. mexicanus experienced rapid population expansion during its dispersal across mountain systems within its current range. The nested clade phylogeographic analysis indicates that the phylogeographic pattern of D. mexicanus is explained by continuous dispersion among lineages from the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. However, we also observed isolation events among haplotypes from the Cofre de Perote/Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt/Sierra Madre Oriental and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt/Sierra Madre del Sur, which is consistent with the present conformation of mountain systems in Mexico and the emergence of geographical barriers during the Pleistocene.     

Cladistic biogeography of the Mexican transition zone

Biogeographic relationships among nine montane areas of endemism across the transition zone between North and South America are analysed cladistically based on phylogenetic hypotheses of thirty‐three resident monophyletic taxa of insects, fish, reptiles, and plants. Areas of endemism include the Arizona mountains (AZ), Sonoran Desert (SD), Sierra Madre Occidental (OCC), southern Sierra Madre Occidental (SOC), Sierra Madre Oriental (ORI), Sierra Transvolcanica (TRAN), Sierra Madre del Sur (SUR), Chiapan‐Guatemalan Highlands (CGH), and Talamancan Cordillera (TC). Area relationships are summarized using Brooks Parsimony Analysis and Assumption 0, with the former resulting in more defensible biogeographic hypotheses. Areas of endemism are dividable into two monophyletic groups; a northern group including AZ, SD, OCC, and ORI, and a southern group consisting of TC, CGH, TRAN, SUR, and the isolated southern regions of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SOC). The northern set of areas are characterized by recent, probably Pleistocene, isolation and prevalent widespread species, whereas the southerly areas probably diverged after Pliocene closure of the Panamanian isthmus. The southern areas are redundantly represented on many of the taxon‐area cladograms by endemic species, indicative of much higher levels of endemism in the Sierra Transvolcanica and further south. Use of a general area cladogram in such a transition zone permits explicit exploration of biogeographic patterns and establishes a predictive framework for taxonomy and conservation prioritization.     

Does the Trans‐mexican Volcanic Belt represent a natural biogeographical unit? An analysis of the distributional patterns of Coleoptera

Aim We analysed the geographical distribution of beetle species of the families Buprestidae, Cerambycidae, Dryophthoridae, Melolonthidae, Passalidae and Staphylinidae from the Trans‐mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB) through a track analysis and a parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE), in order to test its naturalness and determine its affinities. Location The area analysed corresponds to the TVB, which is a biogeographical province of the Mexican Transition Zone. Methods The panbiogeographical analysis was based on the comparison of the individual tracks of 299 species of Buprestidae, Cerambycidae, Dryophthoridae, Melolonthidae, Passalidae and Staphylinidae (Coleoptera). The TVB was divided into 1^o × 1^o grid cells and we also included in the analysis the remaining Mexican biogeographical provinces. Parsimony analysis of endemicity with progressive character elimination (PAE‐PCE) was applied to classify areas by their shared taxa according to the most parsimonious cladograms. The nested sets of areas were represented as generalized tracks. Results Three generalized tracks were obtained: (1) grid cells 9C, 9D, 10D, 10E, Sierra Madre Oriental, Chiapas, Mexican Gulf and the Sierra Madre del Sur; (2) grid cells 3B, 3C, 4B, 4C, 5C, 6C, 7C, Sierra Madre Occidental, Sierra Madre del Sur, Balsas Basin and the Mexican Pacific Coast, and (3) grid cells 8D, 9C, 9D, 10D, 10E, Yucatán Peninsula, Chiapas, Sierra Madre Oriental and the Mexican Gulf. Main conclusions We conclude that the TVB does not represent a natural biogeographical unit because it shows different relationships with other biogeographical provinces, being clearly transitional between the Nearctic and Neotropical provinces. Some parts of the TVB are related to Neotropical provinces (Chiapas, Mexican Gulf and Mexican Pacific Coast) and others to the remaining provinces of the Mexican Transition Zone (Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre del Sur, Sierra Madre Occidental and Balsas Basin).     

Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

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Assessing occupancy and habitat connectivity for Baird’s tapir to establish conservation priorities in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas,Mexico

Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is the largest native mammal that inhabits the Neotropics, and it is enlisted as Endangered by the IUCN Red List. The historic distribution of this species included the area from southern Mexico to northern Colombia. However, its distribution and populations have been reduced drastically during the past 30 years. The main threats for Baird’s tapir are the direct persecution for subsistence hunting, habitat destruction, and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we used camera traps and occupancy models to identify the landscape characteristics that were associated with the occurrence of tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, which is one of the most important populations of the species in Mexico, with the aim to identify areas with habitat suitability for the species. We used our best occupancy model to generate a resistance matrix to develop a model of habitat connectivity using Circuit Theory. According to the best occupancy model, the most suitable areas for this species were the forested areas located at the highest elevations of the mountain ranges that provided rugged terrain. We identified three critical corridors to allow for the connectivity of tapir populations in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, and one of these corridors provides connectivity between this population and the population in the Ocote Biosphere Reserve. With this approach, we propose a conservation strategy for the species that incorporates a more realistic and detailed scheme of Baird’s tapir occurrence in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas region. Priority actions to conserve tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas over the long term include ensuring the complete protection of prime habitat for the species, improved connectivity by protecting forest cover, implementation mitigation measures in areas where paved roads interrupt connectivity of populations, and eradicating poaching of the species in the region completely.     

Genetic diversity, mating system, and conservation of a Mexican subalpine relict, Picea mexicana Martínez

Mexican spruce (Picea mexicana Martínez), an endangered species of the highest sky islands in México's Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental, is threatened by fire, grazing, and global warming. Its conservation depends on whether it also is threatened by inbreeding and loss of genic diversity. We used 18 isozyme markers in 12 enzyme systems to assay genic diversity, characterize the mating system, and test for recent bottlenecks in three known populations. Unbiased, expected heterozygosity (H _e ) averaged 0.125. Despite a separation of 676 km between populations in the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Sierra Madre Occidental, Wright's F _ST , the proportion of total genic diversity among populations, was only 6.9%. Nei's genetic distance was 0.001 between the populations in the Sierra Madre Oriental and more than an order of magnitude greater, 0.019, between the Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental. However, both values point to relatively recent divergence. Mating systems were predominantly outcrossing, but with significant selfing. Multilocus estimates of selfing varied from 19% to 41%, and the means of single-locus estimates were higher, suggesting that additional inbreeding occurred by mating among relatives. Despite significant inbreeding, observed heterozygosity was as high as or higher than H _e ; Wright's fixation index, F _IS , was –0.107. Under the observed level of selfing, positive values of F _IS were expected. Therefore, selection against inbreds and homozygotes must be intense. Cornuet-Luikart tests indicate recent bottlenecks in at least two of the three populations. The results suggest that Mexican spruce is a genetically viable species, and threats are primarily environmental.     

Do the Oaxacan Highlands represent a natural biotic unit? A cladistic biogeographical test based on vertebrate taxa

Aim  We analysed the distributional patterns of six terrestrial vertebrate taxa from the Oaxacan Highlands (Sierra Mazateca, Nudo de Zempoaltépetl and Sierra de Juárez) through a cladistic biogeographical approach, in order to test their naturalness as a biotic unit.
Location  The Oaxacan Highlands, Mexico.
Methods  The cladistic biogeographical analysis was based on the area cladograms of the Pseudoeurycea bellii species group (Amphibia: Plethodontidae), the genus Chlorospingus (Aves: Thraupidae), the genera Microtus , Reithrodontomys and Habromys , and the Peromyscus aztecus species group (Mammalia: Rodentia). We obtained paralogy-free subtrees, from which the components were coded in a data matrix for parsimony analysis. The data matrix was analysed with N ona through W in C lada .
Results  The parsimony analysis resulted in a single general area cladogram in which areas were fragmented following the sequence Sierra Madre Occidental, Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Chiapas, Sierra Madre Oriental + Sierra Mazateca, Sierra Madre del Sur, Nudo de Zempoaltépetl and Sierra de Juárez.
Main conclusions  The general area cladogram shows that the Oaxacan Highlands do not constitute a natural unit. The Sierra Mazateca is the sister area to the Sierra Madre Oriental, whereas the Nudo de Zempoaltépetl and the Sierra de Juárez are closely related to the Sierra Madre del Sur. The events that might have caused these patterns include cycles of expansion and contraction of mountain pinyon, juniper and oak woodlands during the Pleistocene.     

Spatial requirements of jaguars and pumas in Southern Mexico

Understanding how large felids use space is essential for the design of conservation plans that are required for their survival. Jaguars (Panthera onca) and pumas (Puma concolor) are the largest felids in the Neotropics, and they are sympatric throughout the entire range of the jaguar. However, there is very little information about the spatial requirements of these two species in the tropical rainforests of Central America. Using satellite GPS collars, we compared the spatial ecology of jaguars and pumas in a tropical rainforest in southern Mexico. We found that jaguars had home ranges that were 2–6 times larger than those of pumas. The mean annual home range was 181.4 ± 4.0 km² for female jaguars and 431.6 ± 152.6 km² for males. Annual home range for the only female puma tracked was 34.3 km², and 72.0 ± 85.2 km² for males. Jaguars and pumas with overlapping home ranges showed little overlap of core areas and avoided using the same sites at the same time, which suggested that territoriality and avoidance were in play. Further evidence of avoidance was derived from our observation that pumas exhibited greater movement during the lightest periods of the day and jaguars moved most during the darkest. This temporal separation probably facilitates coexistence. Our data suggest that habitat destruction and fragmentation has more severe effects on jaguars than on pumas. According to our estimates, patches of at least 180 km² of primary forest are required to meet the annual spatial requirements of female jaguars. Thus, to conserve jaguars in this region, large tracts of primary forest should be preserved. Importantly, this population of jaguars depends on the adequate preservation of connectivity between natural reserves in Mexico and Guatemala.     

The diversification of Nearctic mammals in the Mexican transition zone

The boundary between the Nearctic and Neotropical regions has been delineated using different approaches, methods and taxa. Using a panbiogeographical approach, identification of nodes can help understand the dynamics and evolution of the boundary. We analysed the distribution patterns of 46 Mexican land mammal species belonging to the Nearctic biotic component and delineated generalized tracks and nodes, in order to determine the southernmost boundary of the Nearctic region in Mexico. We found six generalized tracks and nine nodes; the latter located largely in the Sierra Madre Oriental, Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre del Sur and Chiapas biogeographical provinces. The highlands of Chiapas were found to represent the southernmost area inhabited by Nearctic taxa. The other biogeographical provinces, together with the Sierra Madre Occidental and Balsas Basin provinces, represent the Mexican transition zone in the strict sense. Instead of a classic static boundary, this transition zone represents an evolutionarily 'active' zone, where several speciation events have taken place in the past.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2004, 83 , 327–339.     

Halffter's Mexican transition zone (1962–2014), cenocrons and evolutionary biogeography

The Mexican transition zone is the complex and varied area in which the Neotropical and Nearctic biotas overlap. In a series of contributions, Gonzalo Halffter provided a coherent theory that explains how sets of taxa that evolved in different geographical areas assembled in this transition zone. Halffter's theory developed gradually, being refined and clarified in successive contributions from him and other authors. After a review of the historical development of the Mexican transition zone, including the characterization of the dispersal or distributional patterns recognized by Halffter, its relevance for evolutionary biogeography is discussed briefly. The Mexican transition zone in the strict sense includes the highlands of Mexico and Guatemala (Sierra Madre Occidental, Sierra Madre Oriental, Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre del Sur and Chiapas Highlands provinces), whereas northern Mexico and the southern United States are clearly Nearctic, and the lowlands of southern Mexico and Central America are clearly Neotropical. The distributional patterns recognized by Halffter are considered to represent cenocrons (sets of taxa that share the same biogeographical history, constituting identifiable subsets within a biota by their common biotic origin and evolutionary history). The development of the Mexican transition zone is summarized into the following stages: (1) Jurassic–Cretaceous: the four Paleoamerican cenocrons extend in Mexico; (2) Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene: dispersal from South America of the Plateau cenocron; (3) Oligocene–Miocene: dispersal from the Central American Nucleus of the Mountain Mesoamerican cenocron; (4) Miocene–Pliocene: dispersal from North America of the Nearctic cenocron; and (5) Pleistocene: dispersal from South America of the Typical Neotropical cenocron.     

Future land use effects on the connectivity of protected area networks in southeastern Spain

Land-use change is a major driver of the global biodiversity crisis, mainly via the fragmentation and loss of natural habitat. Although land-use changes will accelerate to meet humankind's growing demand for agricultural products, conservation planning rarely considers future land uses and how they may affect the connectivity of ecological networks. Here, we integrate land-use models with landscape fragmentation and connectivity analyses, to assess the effects of past and future land-use changes on the connectivity of protected area networks for a highly dynamic region in southeast Spain. Our results show a continued geographical polarisation of land use, with agricultural intensification and urban development in the coastal areas, and the abandonment of traditional land use in the mountains (e.g., 1100 km² of natural vegetation are projected to be lost in coastal areas whereas 32 km² of natural vegetation would recover in interior areas from 1991 to 2015). As a result, coastal protected areas will experience increasing isolation. The connectivity analyses reveal that the two protected area networks in place in the study area, the European “Natura 2000” and the Andalusian “RENPA” networks, include many landscape connectors. However, we identify two areas that currently lack protection but contain several important patches for maintaining the region's habitat connectivity: the northwestern and the southwestern slopes of the Sierra Cabrera and Bédar protected area. Our results highlight the importance of considering future land-use trajectories in conservation planning to maintain connectivity at the regional scale, and to improve the resilience of conservation networks.     

Habitat suitability assessment of Sichuan sika deer in Tiebu Nature Reserve during periods of green and dry grass

Habitat suitability assessment is an essential and dynamic research method for determining and evaluating the environmental pressures faced by wildlife. From March to November 2011, we investigated the quality of habitat available to Sichuan sika deer (Cervus nippon sichuanicus) in Tiebu Nature Reserve, Ruoergai County, Sichuan Province, China. A habitat evaluation model established by the fuzzy assignment quadrature method was used to assess habitat suitability for Sichuan sika deer within the reserve by using the GIS spatial analysis function. The results showed that the area of actual available habitat was 220.8 km² during the wet season and 213.2 km² during the dry season, accounting for 80.8% and 78.02% of the total nature reserve area, respectively. The area of suitable habitat for Sichuan sika deer was much lower, 128.01 km² during the wet season and 109.17 km² during the dry season, accounting for 46.84% and 39.95% of the total nature reserve area respectively. The difference between available and suitable habitat is likely due to potentially good habitat having been lost as a result of human disturbance. Lost habitat makes up 4.55% of the total area while grass is green and 5.52% while grass is dry. Human disturbance levels in the form of roads and residential areas were constant throughout the year, but grazing by domestic animals had a higher impact during the dry season. Habitat suitability during this time, already reduced by the withering of the grass, was thus further reduced by the grazing of livestock.     

Fundamental biogeographic patterns across the Mexican Transition Zone: an evolutionary approach

Transition zones, located at the boundaries between biogeographic regions, represent events of biotic hybridization, promoted by historical and ecological changes. They deserve special attention, because they represent areas of intense biotic interaction. In its more general sense, the Mexican Transition Zone is a complex and varied area where Neotropical and Nearctic biotas overlap, from southwestern USA to Mexico and part of Central America, extending south to the Nicaraguan lowlands. In recent years, panbiogeographic analyses have led to restriction of the Mexican Transition Zone to the montane areas of Mexico and to recognize five smaller biotic components within it. A cladistic biogeographic analysis challenged the hypothesis that this transition zone is biogeographically divided along a north‐south axis at the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, as the two major clades found divided Mexico in an east‐west axis. This implies that early Tertiary geological events leading to the convergence of Neotropical and Nearctic elements may be younger (Miocene) than those that led to the east‐west pattern (Paleocene). The Mexican Transition Zone consists of five biogeographic provinces: Sierra Madre Occidental, Sierra Madre Oriental, Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre del Sur, and Chiapas. Within this transition zone, at least four cenocrons have been identified: Paleoamerican, Nearctic, Montane Mesoamerican, and Tropical Mesoamerican. Future studies should continue refining the identification of cenocrons and the reconstruction of a geobiotic scenario, as well as integrating ecological biogeographic studies, to allow a more complete understanding of the patterns and processes that have caused the biotic complexity of this transition zone.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope and conservation of the Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus)

Forecasting the influence of climatic changes on the distribution of the Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is important for the conservation of the species. We explored the environmental characteristics than best explain the current distribution of the species, modelled the past and present distribution, projected the niche model into the future, and identified suitable areas for conservation. Niche modelling was performed using Maxent and 21 environmental variables. For past conditions, we considered the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene (MH) climates. For future conditions, we used the A2a greenhouse gas emission scenario for 2050. Four General Circulation Models (FGOALS 1.0, HADCM3, IPSL-CM4 and MIROC 3.2) were used. The resulting niche model (AUC = 0.89 ± 0.02) predicts maximum probability of presence at precipitation of 106 mm during the coldest quarter, of 396 mm during the warmest quarter, and in totally flat areas. The suitable area for the Maned Wolf currently covers 4,320,364 km². For the LGM, there were inter-model differences in predicted areas (from 819,324 km² to 6,395,886 km²) and in geographic location. The MH models showed drastic changes with respect to the present and considerable inter-model variation. Predictions for 2050 show significant (at least 33%) reductions in distribution. Only a minor fraction (39%) of the current distribution can be considered stable for the period LGM-2050. The FGOALS model was the best option for projecting species occurrence into the future because it included the three localities known for the Maned Wolf from the late Pleistocene and predicts stable areas that coincide with spatial patterns of genetic diversity. The FGOALS projection for 2050 predicts a 33% reduction in suitable habitats, indicating some stable areas (central South America) that will probably be key sites for the conservation of the species.     

Historical demography and phylogeography of a specialist bark beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins (Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Contemporary distribution of North American species has been shaped by past glaciation events during the Quaternary period. However, their effects were not as severe in the southern Rocky Mountains and Northern Mexico as elsewhere in North America. In this context, we test hypotheses about the historical demography of Dendroctonus pseudotsugae, based on 136 haplotypes of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I. The phylogenetic analysis yielded four haplogroups corresponding to northwestern United States and southwestern Canada (NUS), southwestern United States (Arizona, SUS), northwestern Mexico (Sierra Madre Occidental, SMOC), and northeastern Mexico (Sierra Madre Oriental, SMOR). Predictions of demographic expansion were examined through neutrality tests against population growth and mismatch distribution. Results showed that the NUS and SMOC haplogroups have experienced demographic expansion events, whereas the SUS and SMOR haplogroups have not. Divergence times between pairs of haplogroups were estimated from early to middle Pleistocene. The longer divergence time between NUS and all other haplogroups could be the result of refugia within the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains and long-term isolation from southernmost populations in Mexico. The results obtained in this study are in agreement with the evolutionary history of the host Douglas-fir, as the warmer climates of interglacial periods pushed conifers northward of Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona, whereas environmental changes reduced the population size of Douglas-fir and forced fragmentation of distribution range southward into northern Mexico.     

Spatial ecology and habitat use of giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) in South Africa

The lack of long-term studies remains a limiting factor in understanding the home range, spatial ecology and movement of giraffes. We equipped eight giraffes with GPS satellite units and VHF capacity, which were built in to the collars for the remote collection of data on their movements and home ranges over two years on Khamab Kalahari Nature Reserve (KKNR) within the Kalahari region of South Africa. Giraffe numbers in KKNR dropped from 135 individuals to 111 in just five years, revealing the lack of knowledge about their required habitat needs, space use and diet. With over 1000 km² available for roaming within the reserve, habitat selection, principle and preferred food species played a significant role in home range size and overlap between individuals. These giraffes used an average annual home range of 206 km² (20 602 ha) as calculated by a 95% minimum convex polygon (MCP) with a standard deviation core home range calculated by a 50% MCP of 10.1 km² to satisfy their annual needs for survival and reproduction in their preferred vegetation. In the wet, hot season (summer: December–February) when food was abundant, giraffes frequented smaller areas (average 177 km²), while in the dry, cool season (winter: June to August) the mean home range size increased to approximately 245 km². Rainfall influenced spatial distribution since it determined vegetation productivity and leaf phenology. The different seasons influenced giraffe movements, while different vegetation types and season influenced their home range size. Season and food availability also influenced home range overlap between different giraffe herds. Home range overlap occurred when giraffes were forced to roam in overlapping areas during the dryer months when the winter deciduous nature of the majority of the tree species resulted in lower food availability. In winter, the overlap was approximately 31% and in autumn approximately 23%. During the wet and warmer months, overlapping was 15% in summer and 19% in spring, respectively. The percentage of time spent in different vegetation type areas was influenced by the abundance of the principal food species of that plant community. It is thus concluded that the movements of giraffes were primarily influenced by a combination of environmental factors such as season, rainfall and vegetation density.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.