Pre-incubation feeding activities and energy budgets of Snow Geese: can food on the breeding grounds influence fecundity?

The potential contribution of early spring feeding conditions in the Arctic to clutch size variation was examined in a population of Lesser Snow Geese Anser caerulescens caerulescens. Behavioural observations were combined with energetic analyses of food material to derive an estimate of the energy budgets of pre-laying and laying females. Food intake of females between arrival on the breeding grounds and incubation was considerable; estimated energy gains in this period were in the same magnitude as the cost of one or several eggs. The pre-laying period spent on the breeding grounds can thus be energetically beneficial rather than costly. Accumulation of resources for reproduction in Snow Geese is a continual process including the breeding grounds, and nutrient limitation after arrival in the Arctic cannot sufficiently explain the environmental component of clutch size variation. The timing of migration and follicle development is such that clutch size decisions are sometimes made during the late stages of migration and some-times after arrival. In the latter case food conditions on the breeding grounds may greatly influence clutch size; in the former case they may still influence readjustments of clutch size after the initial decision. The universal negative correlation between clutch size and laying date in Snow Geese can be explained by negative fitness consequences of late hatching, which outweigh the benefits of delayed laying and further nutrient accumulation. Food shortage on the breeding grounds may sometimes be a secondary factor contributing to seasonal clutch size decline.     

Central European Greylag Geese Anser anser show a shortening of migration distance and earlier spring arrival over 60 years

Global climate change can cause pronounced changes in species? migratory behaviour. Numerous recent studies have demonstrated climate‐driven changes in migration distance and spring arrival date in waterbirds, but detailed studies based on long‐term records of individual recapture or re‐sighting events are scarce. Using re‐sighting data from 430 marked individuals spanning a 60‐year period (winters 1956/1957 to 2015/2016), we assessed patterns in migration distance and spring arrival date, wintering‐site fidelity and survival in the increasing central European breeding population of Greylag Geese Anser anser. We demonstrate a long‐term decrease in migration distance, changes in the wintering range caused by winter partial short‐stopping, and the earlier arrival of geese on their breeding grounds. Greylag Geese marked on central Europe moulting grounds have not been recorded wintering in Spain since 1986 or in Tunisia and Algeria since 2004. The migration distance and spring arrival of geese indicated an effect of temperature at the breeding site and values of the NAO index. Greylag Geese migrate shorter distances and arrive earlier in milder winters. We suggest that shifts in the migratory behaviour of Central European Greylag Geese are individual temperature‐dependent decisions to take advantage of wintering grounds becoming more favourable closer to their breeding grounds, allowing birds to acquire breeding territories earlier.     

First pairing in Snow Geese Anser caerulescens: at what age and at what time of year does it occur?

In migratory birds, the place and time of pair formation are important parameters for population structure and dynamics. Geese are not only migratory but also exhibit long-term monogamy, and therefore the first pairing event in a bird's lifetime is of particular importance. Through behavioural observations of young, known-age, marked birds conducted on the wintering grounds during three winter seasons we investigated two aspects of the timing of first pair formation in the Wrangel Island population of Snow Geese Anser caerulescens : (1) the age at which birds first form pair bonds, and (2) the seasonal pattern of first pair formation. Wrangel Island Snow Geese paired considerably later in life than Snow Geese from a low-Arctic population: almost none of the birds formed pairs in their second winter, and many were still in sibling groups for at least part of that season. The proportion of birds in pairs continued to increase until at least 5 years of age. Most pairing took place during the observation periods, and in general the proportion of birds in pair bonds increased gradually throughout the winter season. The amount of pairing during spring migration or summer varied annually and among cohorts, indicating that even very young birds may be able to form pair bonds quickly if conditions on the breeding grounds are unusually favourable. Pairing later and remaining in family groups longer may be a response to breeding conditions in this high-Arctic colony. Here, productivity is typically low due to harsh weather and predation, whereas Snow Geese breeding in the low Arctic are less restricted and form pairs and start to breed when younger. The fact that most, but not all, pairing takes place on the wintering grounds helps explain why a previous study found a certain amount of gene flow between the two Wrangel Island subpopulations with separate wintering grounds.     

Pre‐moult patterns of habitat use and moult site selection by Brent Geese Branta bernicla nigricans: individuals prospect for moult sites

In environments where habitat quality varies, the mechanism by which individuals assess and select habitats has significant consequences on their spatial distribution and ability to respond to environmental change. Each year, thousands of Black Brent Geese Branta bernicla nigricans migrate to the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (TLSA), Alaska, to undergo a flightless wing‐moult. Over the last three decades, moulting Brent Geese have changed their distribution within the TLSA, redistributing from inland, freshwater wetlands towards coastal, brackish wetlands. To understand better the mechanism by which Brent Geese select a moult site, as well as reasons behind the long‐term shift of moulting distributions, we examined movements and habitat use of birds marked with GPS‐transmitters during the pre‐moult period. Brent Geese did not generally migrate directly to their moulting site during the pre‐moult period, defined as the time from arrival at the moulting grounds to the onset of flightlessness. Rather, individuals used an average of 3.7 ± 0.6 (se) wetland complexes and travelled a minimum of 95.14 ± 15.84 km during the pre‐moult period. Moreover, 69% of Brent Geese visited their final moult site only to leave and visit other sites before returning for the flightless moult. Brent Geese spent significant time in both inland freshwater and coastal estuarine habitats during the pre‐moult, irrespective of the habitat in which they ultimately moulted. Whereas previous research suggested that Brent Geese choose moult sites based largely upon the experience of previous years, our observations suggest a mechanism of moult site selection whereby Brent Geese ‘prospect’ for moult sites, visiting multiple potential moult sites across varied habitat types, presumably gathering information from each site and correspondingly using this information to choose an appropriate moult site. By allowing individuals to adjust their distributions in response to habitat quality cues that may change annually, such as forage type and availability, prospecting may have influenced the long‐term shift in moulting distributions of Brent Geese in the TLSA.     

Reproductive performance in arctic-nesting geese is influenced by environmental conditions during the wintering, breeding and migration seasons

Arctic regions are expected to experience pronounced changes in climate during the current century. Large numbers of waterfowl breed in these regions, and any climate induced changes are likely to have consequences for their demographics. Moreover, environmental changes experienced during migration and on the wintering grounds may also have impacts but remain poorly understood.
We investigate the role of climate variation during breeding, migration and wintering, while controlling for possible effects of mammalian predation and density dependence on the reproduction of Svalbard breeding barnacle geese Branta leucopsis using 40 years of observations.
Breeding success was significantly positively correlated with temperature on both the wintering grounds (Scotland) and breeding grounds (Svalbard), but negatively correlated with the number of days of strong cross-winds during the northward migration period. These factors remained significant when controlling for a strong negative effect of population size.
Goose reproduction on Svalbard was also linked to fluctuations in arctic fox Alopex lagopus populations occurring elsewhere in the arctic. This reveals the importance of mammalian predation, which may vary as a non-linear function of conditions within the wider arctic region.
Climate predictions were used to project barnacle goose reproduction and hence the population until 2050. These simulations suggest the population will grow at between 1% and 2.7% per year, in response to increasing temperatures. However, it is harder to predict how changes in other factors, such as reductions in sea ice, may impact on arctic breeding birds.     

Circumpolar variation in morphological characteristics of Greater White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons

Capsule Greater White-fronted Geese show significant variation in body size from sampling locations throughout their circumpolar breeding range.

Aims To determine the degree of geographical variation in body size of Greater White-fronted Geese and identify factors contributing to any apparent patterns in variation.

Methods Structural measures of >3000 geese from 16 breeding areas throughout the Holarctic breeding range of the species were compared statistically.

Results Palearctic forms varied clinally, and increased in size from the smallest forms on the Kanin and Taimyr peninsulas in western Eurasia to the largest forms breeding in the Anadyr Lowlands of eastern Chukotka. Clinal variation was less apparent in the Nearctic, as both the smallest form in the Nearctic and the largest form overall (the Tule Goose) were from different breeding areas in Alaska. The Tule Goose was 25% larger than the smallest form. Birds from Greenland (A. a. flavirostris) were the second largest, although only slightly larger than geese from several North American populations. Body size was not correlated with breeding latitude but was positively correlated with temperature on the breeding grounds, breeding habitat, and migration distance. Body mass of Greater White-fronted Geese from all populations remained relatively constant during the period of wing moult. Morphological distinctness of eastern and western Palearctic forms concurs with earlier findings of complete range disjunction.

Conclusions Patterns of morphological variation in Greater White-fronted Geese across the Holarctic can be generally attributed to adaptation to variable breeding environments, migration requirements, and phylo-geographical histories.     

The marine side of a terrestrial carnivore: intra-population variation in use of allochthonous resources by arctic foxes

Inter-individual variation in diet within generalist animal populations is thought to be a widespread phenomenon but its potential causes are poorly known. Inter-individual variation can be amplified by the availability and use of allochthonous resources, i.e., resources coming from spatially distinct ecosystems. Using a wild population of arctic fox as a study model, we tested hypotheses that could explain variation in both population and individual isotopic niches, used here as proxy for the trophic niche. The arctic fox is an opportunistic forager, dwelling in terrestrial and marine environments characterized by strong spatial (arctic-nesting birds) and temporal (cyclic lemmings) fluctuations in resource abundance. First, we tested the hypothesis that generalist foraging habits, in association with temporal variation in prey accessibility, should induce temporal changes in isotopic niche width and diet. Second, we investigated whether within-population variation in the isotopic niche could be explained by individual characteristics (sex and breeding status) and environmental factors (spatiotemporal variation in prey availability). We addressed these questions using isotopic analysis and Bayesian mixing models in conjunction with linear mixed-effects models. We found that: i) arctic fox populations can simultaneously undergo short-term (i.e., within a few months) reduction in both isotopic niche width and inter-individual variability in isotopic ratios, ii) individual isotopic ratios were higher and more representative of a marine-based diet for non-breeding than breeding foxes early in spring, and iii) lemming population cycles did not appear to directly influence the diet of individual foxes after taking their breeding status into account. However, lemming abundance was correlated to proportion of breeding foxes, and could thus indirectly affect the diet at the population scale.     

Coping mechanisms of alpine and arctic breeding birds: extreme weather and limitations to reproductive resilience

As ground nesting homeotherms, alpine and arctic birds mustmeet similar physiological requirements for breeding as otherbirds, but must do so in more extreme conditions. Annual springsnowfall and timing of snow melt can vary by up to 1 month anddaily temperatures near the ground surface vary from below freezingto over 45°C in alpine and arctic habitats. Species breedingin these environments have various behavioral, physiological,and morphological adaptations to cope with energetically demandingconditions. We review the ways birds cope with harsh and variableweather, and present data from long term field studies of ptarmiganto examine effects of spring weather on reproduction. In variablebut normal spring conditions, timing of breeding was not influencedby snow melt, snow depth or daily temperatures in the alpine,as breeding did not commence until conditions were generallyfavorable. Arctic ptarmigan tended to vary breeding onset inresponse to spring conditions. Generally, birds breeding inalpine and arctic habitats suffer a seasonal reproductive disadvantagecompared to birds at lower latitudes or elevations because thebreeding window is short and in late years, nest failure maybe high with little opportunity for renesting. Coping mechanismsmay only be effective below a threshold of climactic extremes.Despite strong resilience in fecundity parameters, when snowmeltis extremely delayed breeding success is greatly reduced. Alpineand arctic birds will be further challenged as they attemptto cope with anticipated increases in the frequency and severityof weather events (climate variability), as well as generalclimate warming.     

Preservation of winter social dominance status in Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla within and across winters

Dominant and subordinate individuals in a group may benefit from the stability of the social dominance organisation, avoiding excessive waste of time and energy in aggressive interactions and reducing injury risks. Nevertheless, the likely evolutionary incentive for individuals to become, and furthermore to stay, dominant may destabilise such dominance hierarchies. In this context, the relative importance of fixed (e.g. sex, morphological size) and fluctuating (e.g. body condition, mating status, reproductive success, social unit size) traits influencing the establishment and preservation of dominance relationships could play a key role in group structure. We investigated the relative role of fixed and fluctuating traits on social status in Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla which form large fairly unstable groups both within and across winters. We compared individual dominance scores of ringed Brent Geese during four consecutive winters. Brent Geese conserved their dominance score within a given winter irrespective of their age but were generally unable to conserve it across consecutive winters. As winter dominance scores correlated best with social unit size, dominance status thus appeared to be mostly a by-product of a fluctuating trait: breeding success in the previous summer. When we considered only adults that had the same social unit size during two consecutive winters, we observed a significant preservation of dominance scores. This result suggests that a fixed trait such as sex or morphological size may still play a role in setting dominance status.     

Variation in spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta that winter in Japan

In North America, spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta vary because some individuals opportunistically nest at mid‐latitudes in years when ephemeral prairie wetlands are available, whereas others regularly nest in arctic and sub‐arctic regions where wetland abundance is more constant. Less was known about migration routes and breeding distribution of pintails in East Asia. From 2007–2009 we marked 198 pintails on their wintering areas in Japan with satellite transmitters to: 1) document spring migration routes and summer distribution, 2) evaluate migratory connections and breeding season sympatry with North American pintails, and 3) determine if pintails used the same migration routes in fall as in spring. Most pintails (67%) migrated to the Kamchatka or Chukotka peninsulas in eastern Russia either directly from Japan or via Sakhalin Island, Russia. Remaining pintails primarily migrated to the Magadan region or Kolyma River Basin in eastern Russia via Sakhalin Island. The Chukotka Peninsula was the most common summer destination, with highest densities in the Anadyr Lowlands; a region also used by pintails that migrate from North America. One pintail migrated to St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, in spring and another briefly migrated to the western coast of Alaska in fall. Autumn migration routes generally mirrored spring migration although most pintails bypassed Sakhalin Island in fall. Compared to North American pintails, pintails that winter in Japan exhibited less variation in migration routes and breeding distribution, and nested at higher latitudes. In the Russian Far East there is no region with habitats comparable in extent to the ephemeral mid‐latitude wetlands of North America. Consequently, East Asian pintails mainly nest in arctic and sub‐arctic regions where annual consistency in wetlands promotes constancy in migration routes and breeding distribution. Breeding season sympatry between pintails from different continents results more from North American pintails migrating to eastern Russia than from Japanese pintails migrating to North America.     

Flight speeds and climb rates of Brent Geese: mass-dependent differences between spring and autumn migration

Aerodynamic theories of bird flight predict that horizontal flight speed will increase with increasing load whereas vertical flight speed will decrease. Horizontal flight speed for birds minimizing overall time on migration is predicted to be higher than flight speed for birds minimizing energy expenditure. In this study we compare flight speeds of Brent Geese Branta b. bernicla recorded by tracking radar and optical range finder during spring and autumn migration in southernmost Sweden, testing the above-mentioned predictions. Geese passing Sweden in spring are substantially heavier than in autumn and there might also be a stronger element of time-selection in spring than in autumn. Recorded airspeeds were significantly higher in spring (mean 19.0 m s⁻¹) than in autumn (mean 17.3 m s⁻¹), the average difference being slightly larger than predicted due to the mass difference alone. The effects on airspeed of wind, vertical speed, flock size and altitude were also analysed, but none of these factors could explain the seasonal difference in airspeed. Hence, the results support the hypothesis of mass-dependent flight speed adjustment. The difference between the two seasons was not large enough to corroborate the hypothesis of a stronger element of time-selection in spring, but this hypothesis cannot be rejected. Vertical flight speeds were lower in spring than in autumn, supporting a negative effect of load on birds' flight power margin.     

Individual inter‐annual nest‐site relocation behaviour drives dynamics of a recently established Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis colony in sub‐arctic Russia

Avian breeding colonies are generally in a continuous state of flux, some parts growing whilst others shrink as individuals move within the colony on the search for better nest‐sites. We examined the role of experience in breeding patch choice by individually marked Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis in a recently established colony in sub‐arctic Russia. Individuals failing to reproduce successfully tended to shift nest location further the following season than did successful pairs, and they did so towards the most dense nest aggregations within the colony, where reproductive success was higher. We suggest that individual decisions on nest‐site choice shape the spatial dynamics of this colony.     

Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds

1. In migratory species, early arrival on the breeding grounds can often enhance breeding success. Timing of spring migration is therefore a key process that is likely to be influenced both by factors specific to individuals, such as the quality of winter and breeding locations and the distance between them, and by annual variation in weather conditions before and during migration. 2. The Icelandic black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa islandica population is currently increasing and, throughout Iceland, is expanding into poorer quality breeding areas. Using a unique data set of arrival times in Iceland in different years for individuals of known breeding and wintering locations, we show that individuals breeding in lower quality, recently occupied and colder areas arrive later than those from traditionally occupied areas. The population is also expanding into new wintering areas, and males from traditionally occupied winter sites also arrive earlier than those occupying novel sites. 3. Annual variation in timing of migration of individuals is influenced by large-scale weather systems (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but between-individual variation is a stronger predictor of arrival time than the NAO. Distance between winter and breeding sites does not influence arrival times. 4. Annual variation in timing of migration is therefore influenced by climatic factors, but the pattern of individual arrival is primarily related to breeding and winter habitat quality. These habitat effects on arrival patterns are likely to operate through variation in individual condition and local-scale density-dependent processes. Timing of migration thus appears to be a key component of the intricate relationship between wintering and breeding grounds in this migratory system.     

Impact of density and environmental factors on population fluctuations in a migratory passerine

1. Populations of plants and animals typically fluctuate because of the combined effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes. The study of these processes is complicated by the fact that population sizes are typically not known exactly, because population counts are subject to sampling variance. Although the existence of sampling variance is broadly acknowledged, relatively few studies on time-series data have accounted for it, which can result in wrong inferences about population processes. 2. To increase our understanding of population dynamics, we analysed time series from six Central European populations of the migratory red-backed shrike Lanius collurio by simultaneously assessing the strength of density dependence, process and sampling variance. In addition, we evaluated hypotheses predicting effects of factors presumed to operate on the breeding grounds, at stopover sites in eastern Africa during fall and spring migration and in the wintering grounds in southern Africa. We used both simple and state-space formulations of the Gompertz equation to model population size. 3. Across populations and modelling approaches, we found consistent evidence for negative density-dependent population regulation. Further, process variance contributed substantially to variation in population size, while sampling variance did not. Environmental conditions in eastern and southern Africa appear to influence breeding population size, as rainfall in the Sahel during fall migration and in the south African wintering areas were positively related to population size in the following spring in four of six populations. In contrast, environmental conditions in the breeding grounds were not related to population size. 4. Our findings suggest negative density-dependent regulation of red-backed shrike breeding populations and are consistent with the long-standing hypothesis that conditions in the African staging and wintering areas influence population numbers of species breeding in Europe. 5. This study highlights the importance of jointly investigating density-dependent and density-independent processes to improve our understanding of factors influencing population fluctuations in space and time.     

Effect of neck collars on the body condition of migrating Greater Snow Geese

Markers are widely used to study behavior, migration, and the life history traits of birds such as survival, dispersal, and reproductive success. The presence of neck collars has been shown to impact the breeding propensity of adult female Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica), but not their survival rates. We evaluated the hypothesis that the reduction in breeding propensity in neck‐collared birds was due to a reduction in the body condition of these long‐distance migrants that rely on a partial capital breeding strategy. Our study was conducted during 4 consecutive years along the St. Lawrence estuary in Quebec, Canada, a major spring staging area for these geese. We captured and marked 2552 geese with collars and 34 were recaptured in subsequent years at the same site. After controlling for confounding variables such as year and date of capture, we found that the presence of a neck collar reduced body condition of females during spring staging. Female Greater Snow Geese lost an average of 105.5 ± 39.1 (SE) g (4% of body mass) after carrying a collar for 1 yr and an average of 81.9 ± 43.6 g compared to original mass when recaptured 2 or 3 yr later. Our results suggest that the previously reported reduction in breeding propensity of neck‐collared geese may be due to a reduction in body condition during spring staging. Neck collars could negatively affect the body condition of female Greater Snow Geese by increasing their energy expenditure (due to increased drag during flight or to chronic stress) or reducing their foraging efficiency.     

International importance of the eastern Chukchi Sea as a staging area for migrating king eiders

The evaluation of habitats used by arctic birds on migration is crucial for their conservation. We explored the importance of the eastern Chukchi Sea (ECS) as a staging area for king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) migrating between breeding areas in Siberia and western North America and wintering areas in the Bering Sea. We tracked 190 king eiders with satellite transmitters between 1997 and 2007. In late summer, 74% of satellite-tracked king eiders migrating south staged in the ECS for 13 ± 13 (SD) days between late June and early November. During spring migration, king eiders staged in the ECS between mid-April and early June for 21 ± 10 days. All instrumented birds migrating to breeding grounds in western North America (n = 62), and 6 of 11 males migrating to breeding grounds in Siberia, used this area for at least 1 week during spring migration. The importance of this staging area renders it possible that industrial development could adversely affect king eider populations in both Siberia and North America.     

Extreme spring conditions in the Arctic delay spring phenology of long-distance migratory songbirds

Arctic regions are warming rapidly, with extreme weather events increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity just as in other regions. Many studies have focused on how shifting seasonality in environmental conditions affects vegetation phenology, while far fewer have examined how the breeding phenology of arctic fauna responds. We studied two species of long-distance migratory songbirds, Lapland longspurs, Calcarius lapponicus, and white-crowned sparrows, Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii, across five consecutive breeding seasons in northern Alaskan tundra. We aimed to understand how spring environmental conditions affected breeding cycle phenology, including the timing of arrival on breeding grounds, territory establishment, and clutch initiation. Spring temperatures, precipitation, and snow-free dates differed significantly among years, with 2013 characterized by unusually late snow cover. In response, we found a significant delay in breeding-cycle phenology for both study species in 2013 relative to other study years: the first bird observed was delayed by 6–10 days, with mean arrival by 3–6 days, territory establishment by 6–13 days, and clutch initiation by 4–10 days. Further, snow cover, temperature, and precipitation during the territory establishment period were important predictors of clutch initiation dates for both species. These findings suggest that Arctic-breeding passerine communities may have the flexibility required to adjust breeding phenology in response to the increasingly extreme and unpredictable environmental conditions—although future generations may encounter conditions that exceed their current range of phenological flexibility.     

Primary moult,biometrics, mass and age composition of Grey Plovers Pluvialis squatarola in southeastern India

Little is known about the biology of waders wintering in southern Asia; this paper deals with the Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola, a species extensively studied only in western Europe. Adult Grey Plovers wintering in southeastern India underwent primary moult in autumn; the duration was estimated to be 127 days, with mean starting date 1 September and mean completion date 5 January. Some first-year Grey Plovers initiated primary moult in late winter and spring, and completed this moult the following spring. The average mass of adults on arrival in September was 200 g, fluctuated close to 220 g from October to February, and increased to 280 g near the end of May. The mass variation did not show the January peak observed in western Europe. Breeding productivity, measured as the percentage of first-year birds in winter catches, varied between 5% and 70% over six years, and showed a positive correlation with that of Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta b. bernicla in western Europe and Curlew Sandpipers Calidris ferruginea in South Africa.     

Plasticity in laying dates of Canada Geese in response to spring phenology

Observed phenological changes can be explained either by individual phenotypic plasticity or by evolutionary changes, but there is more evidence pointing towards phenotypic plasticity to explain the mechanism behind changes in bird phenology. However, most studies on phenology have been conducted on insectivorous bird species for which breeding is closely tied to temperature and insect emergence. In this study, we examined the consequences of climatic conditions on the nesting phenology of temperate breeding Canada Geese Branta canadensis maxima, which rely on a continuous food supply, during a 14‐year period (2003–16). We determined whether laying dates were plastically adjusted to spring environmental conditions, and whether this adjustment resulted in a laying date advancement. We further estimated the strength and shape of selection acting on breeding timing, by looking at the effect of laying date on the relative number of young successfully hatched in a nest. We found that Geese plastically adjusted their laying date to spring maximum temperature (and not to precipitation or ice break‐up), resulting in a 9‐day advancement of laying date in the population for that period. Laying date was also moderately repeatable (r = 0.23) and subject to directional selection, but stabilizing selection was negligible. We thus demonstrate how Canada Geese plastically adjust laying dates to temperature, which may further be beneficial to nesting success. Evolutionary change of laying date to selection related to climate change, however, is still possible.     

Wader recruitment indices suggest nesting success is temperature-dependent in Dunlin Calidris alpina

Measures of annual breeding success are an important component of species monitoring programmes. It has been suggested that effective monitoring of breeding productivity for arctic breeding waders may be achieved from an analysis of annual variation in the proportion of juveniles in winter flocks. Here, we attempt to generate a recruitment index for Dunlin Calidris alpina caught during the winter in north Wales. This index revealed significant annual variation and we show that this is strongly correlated with summer temperature (but not rainfall) on the breeding grounds. Years with high recruitment were also correlated with increases in the national winter population estimate. In years of intermediate summer temperature, the recruitment index was highest and we discuss the possible implications this has for Dunlin under scenarios of future climate change. We were unable to generate a significant index for Common Redshank Tringa totanus and discuss possible reasons for this.