Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid‐zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.     

Topographic,latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid‐latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low‐elevation stands occupy north‐facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high‐elevation stands grow on more south‐facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low‐lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.     

Mutualist‐mediated effects on species' range limits across large geographic scales

Understanding the processes determining species range limits is central to predicting species distributions under climate change. Projected future ranges are extrapolated from distribution models based on climate layers, and few models incorporate the effects of biotic interactions on species' distributions. Here, we show that a positive species interaction ameliorates abiotic stress, and has a profound effect on a species' range limits. Combining field surveys of 92 populations, 10 common garden experiments throughout the range, species distribution models and greenhouse experiments, we show that mutualistic fungal endophytes ameliorate drought stress and broaden the geographic range of their native grass host Bromus laevipes by thousands of square kilometres (~ 20% larger) into drier habitats. Range differentiation between fungal‐associated and fungal‐free grasses was comparable to species‐level range divergence of congeners, indicating large impacts on range limits. Positive biotic interactions may be underappreciated in determining species' ranges and species' responses to future climates across large geographic scales.     

Antagonistic effects of growing season and autumn temperatures on the timing of leaf coloration in winter deciduous trees

Autumn phenology remains a relatively neglected aspect in climate change research, which hinders an accurate assessment of the global carbon cycle and its sensitivity to climate change. Leaf coloration, a key indicator of the growing season end, is thought to be triggered mainly by high or low temperature and drought. However, how the control of leaf coloration is split between temperature and drought is not known for many species. Moreover, whether growing season and autumn temperatures interact in influencing the timing of leaf coloration is not clear. Here, we revealed major climate drivers of leaf coloration dates and their interactions using 154 phenological datasets for four winter deciduous tree species at 89 stations, and the corresponding daily mean/minimum air temperature and precipitation data across China's temperate zone from 1981 to 2012. Results show that temperature is more decisive than drought in causing leaf coloration, and the growing season mean temperature plays a more important role than the autumn mean minimum temperature. Higher growing season temperature and lower autumn minimum temperature would induce earlier leaf coloration date. Moreover, the mean temperature over the growing season correlates positively with the autumn minimum temperature. This implies that growing season mean temperature may offset the requirement of autumn minimum temperature in triggering leaf coloration. Our findings deepen the understanding of leaf coloration mechanisms in winter deciduous trees and suggest that leaf life‐span control depended on growing season mean temperature and autumn low temperature control and their interaction are major environmental cues. In the context of climate change, whether leaf coloration date advances or is delayed may depend on intensity of the offset effect of growing season temperature on autumn low temperature.     

Rapid climate‐driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds

Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity.     

Summer drought exposure,stand structure,and soil properties jointly control the growth of European beech along a steep precipitation gradient in northern Germany

Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500–850 mm year⁻¹) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April–September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites. A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.     

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988–1991 and 2008–2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north‐west and north‐east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer‐effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north–north‐westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species‐specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.     

How climate,migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process‐based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north‐eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1–2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36–61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life‐history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future.     

Health Consequences of Drought on the Canadian Prairies

Population pressures and expanding agricultural and industrial development, with their resulting environmental degradation and demand for water, are likely to increase drought vulnerability on the Canadian Prairies. Coupled with increases in drought expected under climate change, the health and well-being of prairie populations may be compromised. However, little is known about the health effects of drought in this region or of possible adaptation strategies. This article assesses the available information on the health effects associated with drought and uses this information to develop an ecosystem health framework for outlining how drought may affect the prairie ecosystem and the health and well-being of Canadian Prairie populations. The article identifies multisector mitigation and adaptation strategies for reducing the harmful effects of drought on the prairie ecosystem and its populations. The literature review revealed that drought is associated with crop failure, increased atmospheric dust, and intensifying forest fire frequency, with health effects ranging from respiratory illnesses from inhaling dust or smoke, to mental health concerns arising from economic stress, particularly among farmers. Future research is needed on: the health effects associated with drought more specific to the Prairie region; the mental well-being of farmers and agricultural communities; the health effects from exposure to forest fire haze; and the health effects of reduced water supply and quality. Reducing drought vulnerability requires multisectoral collaboration, starting at the community level, to identify more sustainable water use, diverse health risks of drought, and ways of adapting to drought conditions.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.