Ecological traps and species distribution models: a challenge for prioritizing areas of conservation importance

Species distribution models analyse how species use different types of habitats. Their spatial predictions are often used to prioritize areas for conservation. Individuals may, however, prefer settling in habitat types of low quality compared to other available habitats. This ecological trap phenomenon is usually studied in a small number of habitat patches and consequences at the landscape level are largely unknown. It is therefore often unclear whether the spatial pattern of habitat use is aligned with the behavioural decisions made by the individuals during habitat selection or reflects actual variation in the quality of different habitat types. As species distribution models analyse the pattern of occurrence in different habitats, there is a conservation interest in examining what their predictions mean in terms of habitat quality when ecological traps are operating. Previous work in Belgium showed that red-backed shrikes Lanius collurio are more attracted to newly available clear-cut habitat in plantation forests than to the traditionally used farmland habitat. We developed models with shrike distribution data and compared their predictions with spatial variation in shrike reproductive performance used as a proxy for habitat quality. Models accurately predicted shrike distribution and identified the preferred clear-cut patches as the most frequently used habitat, but reproductive performance was lower in clear-cut areas than in farmland. With human-induced rapid environmental changes, organisms may indeed be attracted to low-quality habitats and occupy them at high densities. Consequently, the predictions of statistical models based on occurrence records may not align with variation in significant population parameters for the maintenance of the species. When species expand their range to novel habitats, such models are useful to document the spatial distribution of the organisms, but data on population growth rates are worth collecting before using model predictions to guide the spatial prioritization of conservation actions.     

Predicting habitat distribution and frequency from plant species co-occurrence data

Aim Species frequency data have been widely used in nature conservation to aid management decisions. To determine species frequencies, information on habitat occurrence is important: a species with a low frequency is not necessarily rare if it occupies all suitable habitats. Often, information on habitat distribution is available for small geographic areas only. We aim to predict grid‐based habitat occurrence from grid‐based plant species distribution data in a meso‐scale analysis. Location The study was carried out over two spatial extents: Germany and Bavaria. Methods Two simple models were set up to examine the number of characteristic plant species needed per grid cell to predict the occurrence of four selected habitats (species data from FlorKart, http://www.floraweb.de ). Both models were calibrated in Bavaria using available information on habitat distribution, validated for other federal states, and applied to Germany. First, a spatially explicit regression model (generalized linear model (GLM) with assumed binomial error distribution of response variable) was obtained. Second, a spatially independent optimization model was derived that estimated species numbers without using spatial information on habitat distribution. Finally, an additional uncalibrated model was derived that calculated the frequencies of 24 habitats. It was validated using NATURA2000 habitat maps. Results Using the Bavarian models it was possible to predict habitat distribution and frequency from the co‐occurrence of habitat‐specific species per grid cell. As the model validations for other German federal states were successful, the models were applied to all of Germany, and habitat distribution and frequencies could be retrieved for the national scale on the basis of habitat‐specific species co‐occurrences per grid cell. Using the third, uncalibrated model, which includes species distribution data only, it was possible to predict the frequencies of 24 habitats based on the co‐occurrence of 24% of formation‐specific species per grid cell. Predicted habitat frequencies deduced from this third model were strongly related to frequencies of NATURA2000 habitat maps. Main conclusions It was concluded that it is possible to deduce habitat distributions and frequencies from the co‐occurrence of habitat‐specific species. For areas partly covered by habitat mappings, calibrated models can be developed and extrapolated to larger areas. If information on habitat distribution is completely lacking, uncalibrated models can still be applied, providing coarse information on habitat frequencies. Predicted habitat distributions and frequencies can be used as a tool in nature conservation, for example as correction factors for species frequencies, as long as the species of interest is not included in the model set‐up.     

Species-specific habitat distribution of coral reef fish assemblages in relation to habitat characteristics in an Okinawan coral reef

We determined the species-specific habitat associations of coral reef fishes and environmental characteristics in an Okinawan coral reef in Japan. We focused on three families (Pomacentridae, Gobiidae and Labridae) and attempted to determine differences in habitat utilization. We selected six sites along the coast of Amitori Bay, from the entrance to the innermost part, in order to cover a wide range of habitat characteristics (exposed habitat, semi-exposed habitat and sheltered habitat). The species diversity of coral assemblages was greater at the exposed and semi-exposed habitats, whereas branching coral mostly covered the sheltered habitat. The environmental factors that determine the species-specific spatial association in fishes differed among families. Both biological characteristics (coral morphology and coral species diversity) and physical characteristics (water depth and wave exposure) affected the spatial association of pomacentrids and gobiids. In contrast, physical characteristics such as substrate complexity and water depth affected the species-specific spatial association of labrid species. Further study is needed to determine the ecological factors that regulate the species-specific habitat preference in Okinawan coral reefs.     

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records,standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: A test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts.Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.     

亚热带-温带气候过渡区落叶阔叶林物种-生境关联分析

物种-生境关联分析有利于更好地理解物种共存理论和群落构建机制。根据秦岭落叶阔叶林25 hm²固定监测样地的调查数据,将树种分为幼苗、幼树和成树3个生活阶段,利用Torus-translation检验方法分析物种与不同生境类型之间的关联性。结果表明: 生境对各物种的影响不同。与高坡显著关联的物种数最多,其中95.7%为负关联;与低坡呈负相关的物种占89.5%;与山脊呈显著负关联的物种占90.9%;物种与高谷生境多存在显著正关联,呈负相关的只有1种,占0.03%。物种在幼苗、幼树和成树阶段与生境分别存在80、44和23个关联,表明幼苗阶段对生境的依赖程度更大。幼苗阶段的物种中有38个(占总物种数的90.5%)至少与一类生境存在显著的关联性;幼树阶段有25个(占总物种数的58.1%)至少与一类生境存在显著关联;成树阶段只有17个(占总物种数的39.5%)至少与一类生境存在显著关联。同一生境对不同生活史阶段物种的影响存在差异,到生活史阶段后期,生境的影响逐渐减弱。由于特定的环境需求,多数物种在不同生活史阶段表现出不同的生境偏好。     

Habitat associations of exploited fish species in the Lower Amazon river–floodplain system

1. Modification of floodplain morphology and land use is widely recognized as a major threat to fish communities of river–floodplain systems. We assess habitat associations of major exploited fish species in the Lower Amazon, where modifications are more extensive than in the Central or Upper Amazon. 2. Habitat was characterized in terms of physical environment, vegetation cover, distance from river and mean depth. Habitat associations of late juvenile and adult fish of the 14 major exploited species were established by comparing the distribution of the habitat sampled with the distribution of the habitat sampled weighed by a fish abundance index (catch per unit of effort). 3. Eight species showed significant habitat associations, generally being most abundant in floodplain lakes. Five of these eight species were associated with open water. Of the three exceptions, two preferred flooded forest lakes and another macrophyte‐dominated channels. The majority of those species with significant associations also preferred waters shallower than 7.25 m and relatively distant from the river mainstream. 4. While flooded forest is often assumed to be a key habitat for Amazon fish, only two of the main exploited species in the Lower Amazon had a significant association with this habitat. The majority of exploited species, including one that is associated with flooded forest in the central and upper Amazon, either showed no habitat associations or preferred open water lakes. The full range of pristine and modified floodplain habitats should be considered as important to fish conservation and fisheries productivity.     

Environmental factors influencing liana community diversity,structure and habitat associations in a tropical hill forest,Malaysia

Background: Although lianas are important in forest ecosystems, information on the environmental factors influencing their diversity, structure and habitat associations is scanty.

Aims: This study had the aim of determining variation in liana diversity, structure and habitat associations across different topographic habitats, and the environmental factors influencing them, in the Penang Hill Forest Reserve, Malaysia.

Methods: Liana diversity, structure and habitat associations were examined in 30 plots, 40 m × 40 m, randomly demarcated within three topographic habitats (flatland, slope and valley). The physico-chemical properties of the soils in the plots were determined and the altitude and slope of the plots recorded.

Results: Liana species richness, diversity and structure varied significantly among the topographic habitats. Liana species richness, diversity and abundance variations were related to soil moisture, phosphorus content, pH and altitude, whereas liana diameter and basal area were associated with soil magnesium and slope. A total of eight species had a positive association with the habitat and a further six showed a negative association. Four species had a positive association with the flatland habitat, but only three and two species, respectively, with slope and valley habitats. The slope habitat gave the highest number of species that showed a negative association.

Conclusions: Liana diversity and structure varied between habitats. Some liana species showed different associations with specific habitats. Environmental variables were identified that influence liana diversity, structure and habitat associations. The study provides important information about the factors influencing liana success, and these will be of value in liana conservation and management in tropical forests.     

元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性评价——基于荟萃分析和遥感大数据分析

生境适宜性评价是物种保护和生境管理与规划的基础。近几十年来，云南境内野生亚洲象数量剧增，外扩迁移事件频发，而新迁入区域生境适宜状况因物种出现点数据缺乏而难以评价，掣肘迁移亚洲象保护与风险防范应急。以亚洲象新近迁入的元江-李仙江流域为案例区，采用荟萃分析统计亚洲象生境评价因子，结合相关性分析和方差膨胀因子独立性检验，筛选出生境评价因子；基于开源遥感数据产品量化生境因子，综合主成分分析和层次分析计算生境评价因子权重，采用生境适宜性指数(Habitat Suitability Index, HSI)模型评价元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性，并分析其景观格局。结果表明：(1)元江-李仙江流域亚洲象生境适宜性空间格局主要表现为由下游至上游呈递减趋势，最适生境主要分布于流域下游段，而流域上游段适宜生境少；(2)元江流域生境适宜性低于李仙江流域，且其生境斑块连接度更低、破碎化更严重；(3)2021年“北移象群”北迁沿程生境适宜性由西南向东北呈下降趋势。基于亚洲象生境适宜性评价结果，科学引导野生亚洲象迁入适宜生境区，以规避人象冲突，保障外迁亚洲象群及其活动区居民生命财产安全，服务于区域生物多样性保护与...     

不同鸟类生境网络复合与优化——以苏锡常地区白鹭、鸳鸯、雉鸡为例

通过复合优化不同焦点物种的生境网络表征多数物种生境网络实现物种多样性保护,具有重要理论价值和实践意义。以苏锡常地区为研究区域,以白鹭、鸳鸯和雉鸡3种鸟类为焦点物种,通过采用生境斑块约束条件模型与最小成本路径法相结合的方法识别出生境网络;从满足集合覆盖问题视角出发,通过采用网络构成要素复合的方法进行网络复合,其中廊道与廊道的复合通过采用评价生态系统服务价值的方法实现;通过采用观测数据为生境斑块和迁移廊道增补依据的方法进行复合生境网络优化。结果表明:生境网络经过复合,廊道总面积、总长度及生态系统服务价值在分别减少了16%、68%和10%的情况下,保持了斑块间的连接度、兼顾到经济效益和生态效益最大化、覆盖了占总数86%以上的75处观测点;复合生境网络经过优化,覆盖了2010年及以后所有84处观测点,廊道总面积、总长度及生态系统服务价值分别增加了19%、21%和27%;说明生境网络复合优化定量分析方法和思路具有可行性,为网络复合研究提供了借鉴。     

Utilizing a multifaceted approach to assess the current distribution and conservation status of an uncommon species: the golden mouse (Ochrotomys nuttalli) in Florida

Aim

Our goal was to assess the conservation status of the understudied and naturally uncommon habitat specialist, the golden mouse (Ochrotomys nuttalli), at the edge of its range where its historically fragmented habitat has been subjected to severe loss.

Location

Peninsular Florida, north of approximately 27° latitude, USA.

Methods

We used data gathered from museum collections, regional biologists, geographic information systems (GIS) layers, field surveys and DNA sequencing to determine the habitats that best explain the distribution of the species, examine changes in the geographic extent of both the species and its habitats, and compare genetic differentiation between populations occupying disjunct regions. The results from these multiple analyses were combined to assess the conservation status of the species.

Results

Golden mouse occurrence records align well with the distribution of hardwood habitats in Florida. These habitats occur naturally as ‘islands’, but have become increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic land use. Despite habitat loss, the location of the southern range periphery has remained relatively unchanged in location over the past century. Genetic analysis reveals a history of limited dispersal of females among habitat ‘islands’ that likely predates anthropogenic landscape fragmentation. This pattern suggests that isolated populations that are extirpated will have little to no chance of successful recolonization.

Main conclusions

The combined results from multiple analyses produced a more complete picture of the threats faced by this previously data‐deficient species than any single analysis would have. Although the species' southern range limit cannot be shown to have retracted in the face of human expansion, habitat fragmentation clearly has put the species at increased risk. Conservation and management of hardwood habitats are critical to the persistence of the golden mouse at the edge of its range.     

基于不同视角与方法的北京市密云区生境规划对比

由快速城市化导致的生境破碎化严重影响了生态系统的服务功能。因此,保护与规划城市生境尤为重要。然而目前科学的生境规划设计方法仍有待探索,因为生境的定义具有不同的视角与内涵。基于保护生物学与景观生态学理论,对比了物种视角与景观视角下的2种规划思路,并结合北京市密云区的生境规划,分析对比2种方法的规划结果。在物种方法中,首先选取承担多种生态作用的豹猫为目标物种,运用HSI模型并结合专家赋值法和层次分析法确定每个评价因子的权重,最后通过ArcGIS计算选取高适宜性源地并建立生态网络。景观方法则基于ArcGIS、Guidos、Conefor等软件平台,采用MSPA和景观连通性分析方法,选取重要核心区源地并建立景观生境网络。研究结果表明,2种方法的源地分布差异较大。因此生境规划不能盲目选择一种方法,需有机结合2种方法得到源地与廊道结果。根据地块承载的生境生态功能重要程度确定源地核心保护区,以实现最佳的生境规划和有效的生态系统服务。     

An Assessment of Habitat Diversity and Transformation on La Réunion Island (Mascarene Islands,Indian Ocean) as a Basis for Identifying Broad-scale Conservation Priorities

Most natural habitat in the Mascarene Islands (Mauritius, La Réunion and Rodrigues) has been transformed. Although urbanisation, agriculture and alien plant invasions have transformed large areas in La Réunion, the island has by far the greatest area of intact habitats in the Mascarenes, but remaining natural areas are under threat. We propose a protocol for defining a system of habitat types and for using these to provide a preliminary assessment of conservation priorities for La Réunion. The protocol draws on existing data and expert knowledge to map habitat types, assesses the extent of habitat transformation, and quantifies heterogeneity between habitat types based on climate, topography and geology. The pattern of habitat transformation was uneven among the nineteen habitat types identified. While three habitats have lost > 95% of their original area, four still retain> 80% of their original extent. Habitat types could be grouped into the following categories: (i) transformed habitats with low levels of plant endemism, (ii) habitats confined to homogenous geology with high levels of plantendemism, and (iii) species-rich heterogeneous habitats on diverse geological types. Priority habitats were also identified using municipalities as a basis for implementation. Urgent action is required for several habitat types where a large part of the original extent has been transformed. Three municipalities which contain more than 10 habitat types should receive conservation priority. The analysis provides the basis for setting conservation priorities in La Réunion at the regional and local scale. Implications of the results are discussed with reference to requirements for finer-scale conservation planning.     

城市公园和郊区公园生物多样性评估的指标

随着城市化进程的加快,城市的生物多样性不可避免地受到城市化的各种影响,城市及其郊区的生物多样性保护越来越受到人们的重视。城市公园与郊区公园中往往具有高度多样化的生境,并保存着某些自然植被片段和动物物种,那里的生物多样性较高。可见,在城市和郊区的生物多样性保护中,公园生物多样性的保护是一个非常关键的环节,而对其生物多样性的评估又是有效保护的基础。目前,我国生物多样性评估方面的研究工作多集中于物种水平,而对生境的研究较少,但实践证明,保护生境比保护物种更为重要。本文介绍了比利时学者Hermy & Cornelis在比利时西佛兰德省的Loppem市立公园的保护实践中构建的一种对城市公园和郊区公园中的生物多样性进行评估的方法。该方法从两个方面展开：生境多样性和物种多样性。在生境水平上,首先对各种生境单元进行分类,这些单元被分为面状、线状和点状要素。针对每种要素,分别计算了Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和饱和度指数。饱和度指数是实际的多样性指数与最大可能的多样性指数之比。在物种水平上,使用了物种数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和饱和度指数来评估公园中的高等植物、蝴蝶、两栖动物和饲养的鸟类等物种。这样,就获得了20个生物多样性指标,根据这些指数就可以对Loppem市立公园内的生物多样性进行评估。结合我国生物多样性评估工作的实际要求,文章最后对上述方法进行了讨论,指出该方法对我国公园的生物多样性评估工作具有借鉴意义,但在运用时各地需要结合本地的实际情况。     

New approach for evaluating habitat stability using scarce records for both historical and contemporary specimens: a case study using Carabidae specimen records

Natural history collections, such as specimen records, are crucial resources for conservation and habitat management. However, these data are usually scarce compared to physical environmental data (e.g., digital terrain maps) that we often have little species data and a lot of physical environmental data with which to evaluate habitats. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating habitat stability using scarce natural history records and abundant physical environmental data. We used both historical and contemporary specimen records of carabid beetles (areas in which records of the same species were recorded during both periods) and evaluated the attributes of these areas using terrain characteristics. We found two common terrain characteristics among the occupied areas: large total river length and low variation in elevation. These terrain characteristics suggest that habitats of carabid species have been conserved in disturbed and wet environments for a long time. These results are consistent with the ecological characteristics of carabid beetles. Our study shows that scarce natural history collections, combined with ingenuity, can be useful for evaluating habitats.     

生境破碎化对动物种群存活的影响

生境破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。通常以岛屿生物地理学、异质种群生物学和景观生态学的理论来解释不同空间尺度中生境破碎化的生态学效应。生境破碎化引起面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应。这些效应通过影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布和多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程,最终影响动物种群的存活。野外研究表明,破碎化对动物的影响,因物种、生境类型和地理区域不同而有所变化,因此,预测物种在破碎生境中的存活比较困难。研究热点集中于：确定生境面积损失和生境斑块的空间格局对破碎景观中物种绝灭的相对影响,破碎景观中物种的适宜生境比例和绝灭阈值,异质种群动态以及生态系统的生态过程。随着3S技术的发展,生境破碎化模型趋于复杂,而发展有效的模型和验证模型将成为一项富有挑战性的任务。     

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

Aim

This study formally evaluates the ability of three models to use geographical data on species distribution to predict the habitat use patterns of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Location

Species and habitats in the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest were investigated.

Methods

Based on empirical data on harvestmen and scorpions, we estimated the strength of species association with preferred habitat and classified them as habitat generalists or habitat specialists. We compared these empirical results with predictions made using data on species range size (model 1), species occurrence in biomes (model 2) and species occurrence in habitats within the biomes (model 3).

Results

We used 1,278 records of eight harvestman and two scorpion species that had specific determination and enough sampling numbers to allow safe identification of habitat specialization. We observed the following: (1) the extension of species occurrence did not influence the strength of species–habitat association (estimated by IndVal), which led us to reject model 1; (2) species habitat specialization derived from occurrences in biomes was 60% coincident with the classification derived from empirical data. This value is not different enough from the value expected by chance for these data, which also led us to reject model 2; and (3) species classification derived from secondary data about the habitats used had a significant coincidence of 80% with the empirical classification, which led us to accept model 3.

Main conclusions

For correct classification of species habitat specialization using secondary distributional data, we recommend that future studies consider using the most accurate information available on the habitats used by species. Especially for megadiverse and understudied groups, information about habitats used is not easy to obtain, so it is important for researchers and institutions to register and disseminate this information, which could support many other studies.

     

论自然保护与资源开发的策略

物种保护的根本途径是保护其生境,生境的完整性遭到破坏则物种将趋于灭绝［１,２］。不少国家的政府及非政府组织正投入巨资设置保护区试图将至少部分生物多样性资源加以永久保存［３］,但这些目标的达到往往是基于如下假设：即保护区将不受干扰、原封不动的加以保存并与经济活动及周围环境难以达成任何形式的妥协。然而越来越多的证据表明,在全球范围遭受人类干扰的背景下无论是保护区内还是保护区外的生境均将趋于退化,因此现行建立保护区的模式并不能有效阻止生物多样性灾难性的损失［４］。特别对于发展中国家,人口、资源、环境的…     

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long‐term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short‐term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.     

Dietary patterns in Perrier's sifakas (Propithecus diadema perrieri): a preliminary study

Some lemur species range into only one habitat type, whereas others range into a variety of habitats. Because plant community structure can differ between habitats, dietary patterns may vary for conspecific groups of primates that range into more than one type of habitat. The goal of our study was to determine how habitat variation influences dietary patterns in Perrier's sifakas (Propithecus diadema perrieri) that range into both dry and riparian forests in northern Madagascar. We collected 542 hr of data on the behavior and diet of two groups of P.d. perrieri from 7 June to 4 August 1998 at Camp Antobiratsy in Analamera Special Reserve, Madagascar. We computed indices of dietary diversity for each group and dietary/plant species similarity between groups. P.d. perrieri in group 1 fed predominantly in dry forest (72.7% of feeding records, n=660), whereas those in group 2 fed most often in riparian forest (73.7% of feeding records, n=666). The index of dietary similarity (0.986) was significantly higher than the index of plant species similarity (0.767). Although the P.d. perrieri in the two study groups fed predominantly in different forest habitats, they ate similar food items in very comparable proportions (but not from the same plant species). However, based on habitat availability measures, neither group fed where they were expected to feed.     

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.