Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using both documentary records (1914–87 and 1938–96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past several centuries. The two regions share similar fire–climate relationships and similar relationships of climatic anomalies to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Niño events coincide with above-average cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. Conversely, La Niña events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching from El Niño to La Niña conditions. El Niño conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when desiccated by La Niña conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence in both regions from c. 1780–1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO–fire relationships of the south-western USA and northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes.     

Tropical and north Pacific teleconnections influence fire regimes in pine-dominated forests of north-eastern California, USA

Aim To assess the importance of drought and teleconnections from the tropical and north Pacific Ocean on historical fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in north‐eastern California. Location The 700 km² study area was on the leeward slope of the southern Cascade Mountains in north‐eastern California. Open forests of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi Grev. & Balf) surround a network of grass and shrub‐dominated meadows that range in elevation from 1650 to 1750 m. Methods Fire regime characteristics (return interval, season and extent) were determined from crossdated fire scars and were compared with tree‐ring based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature and teleconnections for the period 1700–1849. The effect of drought on fire regimes was determined using a tree‐ring based proxy of climate from five published chronologies. The number of forest‐meadow units that burned was compared with published reconstructions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results Landscape scale fires burned every 7–49 years in meadow‐edge forests and were influenced by variation in drought, the PDO and ENSO. These widespread fires burned during years that were dryer and warmer than normal that followed wetter and cooler years. Less widespread fires were not associated with this wet, then dry climate pattern. Widespread fires occurred during El Niño years, but fire extent was mediated by the phase of the PDO. Fires were most widespread when the PDO was in a warm or normal phase. Fire return intervals, season and extent varied at decadal to multi‐decadal time scales. In particular, an anomalously cool, wet period during the early 1800s resulted in widespread fires that occurred earlier in the year than fires before or after. Main conclusions Fire regimes in north‐eastern California were strongly influenced by regional and hemispheric‐scale climate variation. Fire regimes responded to variation that occurred in both the north and tropical Pacific. Near normal modes of the PDO may influence fire regimes more than extreme conditions. The prevalence of widespread teleconnection‐driven fires in the historic record suggests that variation in the Pacific Ocean was a key regulator of fire regimes through its influence on local fuel production and successional dynamics in north‐eastern California.     

Influences of climate on fire regimes in montane forests of north-western Mexico

Aim To identify the influence of interannual and interdecadal climate variation on the occurrence and extent of fires in montane conifer forests of north‐western Mexico. Location This study was conducted in Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.)‐dominated mixed‐conifer forests in the central and northern plateau of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico. Methods Fire occurrence was reconstructed for 12 dispersed sites for a 290‐year period (1700–1990) from cross‐dated fire‐scarred samples extracted from live trees, snags and logs. Superposed epoch analysis was used to examine the relationships of tree‐ring reconstructions of drought, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with fire occurrence and extent. Results Years with no recorded fire scars were wetter than average. In contrast, years of widespread fires were dry and associated with phase changes of the PDO, usually from positive (warm) to negative (cold). The influence of the PDO was most evident during the La Niña phase of the ENSO. Widespread fires were also associated with warm/wet conditions 5 years before the fire. We hypothesize that the 5‐year lag between warm/wet conditions and widespread fires may be associated with the time necessary to build up sufficient quantity and continuity of needle litter to support widespread fires. Two periods of unusually high fire activity (1770–1800 and 1920–1950) were each followed by several decades of unusually low fire activity. The switch in each case was associated with strong phase changes in both PDO and ENSO. Main conclusions Climate strongly influences fire regimes in the mountains of north‐western Mexico. Wet/warm years are associated with little fire activity. However, these years may contribute to subsequent fire years by encouraging the production of sufficient needle litter to support more widespread fires that occur in dry/cool years.     

Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

Climatic influences on fire regimes along a rain forest-to-xeric woodland gradient in northern Patagonia, Argentina

ABSTRACT. Influences of annual climatic variation on fire occurrence were examined along a rainfall gradient from temperate rainforest to xeric woodlands in northern Patagonia, Argentina. Fire chronologies were derived from fire scars on trees and related to tree-ring proxy records of climate over the period 1820–1974. Similarly, fire records of four Patagonian national parks for the period 1940–1988 were compared to instrumental weather data. Finally, the influences of broad-scale synoptic weather patterns on fire occurrence in northern Patagonia were explored.
Fire in Nothofagus rainforests is highly dependent on drought during the spring and summer of the same year in which fires occur and is less strongly favoured by drought during the spring of the previous year. The occurrence of fire in dry vegetation types near the steppe ecotone is less dependent on drought because even during years of normal weather fuels are thoroughly desiccated during the dry summer. In xeric Austrocedrus woodlands, fire occurrence and spread are promoted by droughts during the fire season and also appear to be favoured by above-average moisture conditions during the preceding 1 to 2 growing seasons which enhances fuel production. Thus, in the xeric woodlands fire is not simply dependent on drought but is favoured by greater climatic variability over time scales of several years.
Fire activity in northern Patagonia is greatly influenced by the intensity and latitudinal position of the subtropical high pressure cell of the southeast Pacific. Greater fire activity is associated with a more intense and more southerly located high pressure cell which blocks the influx of Pacific moisture into the continent. Although long-term changes in fire occurrence along the rainforest-to-xeric woodland gradient have been greatly influenced by human activities, annual variation in fire frequency and extent is also strongly influenced by annual climatic variation.     

Inter-hemispheric comparison of fire history: The Colorado Front Range,U.S.A., and the Northern Patagonian Andes,Argentina

Fire history was compared between the Colorado Front Range (U.S.A.) and northern Patagonia (Argentina) by dating fire-scars on 525 Pinus ponderosa and 418 Austrocedrus chilensis, respectively, and determining fire weather on the basis of instrumental and tree-ring proxy records of climatic variation. Years of above average moisture availability preceding fire years, rather than drought alone, is conducive to years of widespread fire in the Colorado Front Range and the northern Patagonian study areas. Above-average precipitation promotes fire by enhancing the growth of herbaceous plants which increases the quantity of fine fuels during the fire season a few years later. The short-term variability in moisture availability that is conducive to widespread burning is strongly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during the spring in both regions which leads to peaks in fire occurrence several years after El Niño events. The warmer and drier springs associated with la Niña events exacerbate the drying of fuels so that fire years commonly coincide with La Niña events. In both regions, there was a dramatic decline in fire occurrence after the early 1900s due to a decline in intentionally set fires by Native Americans and European settlers, fuel reduction by livestock grazing, and increasingly effective organized fire suppression activities after the 1920s. In both regions there was a marked increase in fire frequency during the mid-and late-19th centuries which coincides with increased ignitions by Native Americans and/or European settlers. However, year-to-year variability in ring widths of Pinus ponderosa and Austrocedrus chilensis also increased from relatively low values in the late 1700s and early 1800s to peaks in the 1850s and 1860s. This implies frequent alternation of years of above and below average moisture availability during the mid-19th century when the frequencies of major fire years rise. The high correlation of tree-growth variability betweem the two regions implies a strong inter-hemispheric variation in climatic variability at a centennial time scale which closely parallels a variety of proxy records of ENSO activity. Based on the relationship of fire and ENSO events documented in the current study, this long-term trend in ENSO activity probably contributed to the mid- and late-19th century increase in fire spread in both regions. These similar trends in fire occurrence have contributed to similar patterns of forest structures, forest health, and current hazard of catastrophic wildfire in the Colorado Front Range and northern Patagonia.     

Climatic influences on fire regimes in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada, USA

Aim The goal of this study was to understand better the role of interannual and interdecadal climatic variation on local pre‐EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes in fire‐prone Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.) dominated forests in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Location Our study was conducted in a 6000‐ha area of contiguous mixed Jeffrey pine‐white fir (Abies concolor Gordon & Glend.) forest on the western slope of the Carson Range on the eastern shore of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Methods Pre‐EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes (i.e. frequency, return interval, extent, season) were reconstructed in eight contiguous watersheds for a 200‐year period (1650–1850) from fire scars preserved in the annual growth rings of nineteenth century cut stumps and recently dead pre‐settlement Jeffrey pine trees. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) and correlation analysis were used to examine relationships between tree ring‐based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and pre‐EuroAmerican fire regimes in order to assess the influence of drought and equatorial and north Pacific teleconnections on fire occurrence and fire extent. Results For the entire period of record (1650–1850), wet conditions were characteristic of years without fires. In contrast, fire years were associated with drought. Drought intensity also influenced fire extent and the most widespread fires occurred in the driest years. Years with widespread fires were also preceded by wet conditions 3 years before the fire. Widespread fires were also associated with phase changes of the PDO, with the most widespread burns occurring when the phase changed from warm (positive) to cold (negative) conditions. Annual SOI and fire frequency or extent were not associated in our study. At decadal time scales, burning was more widespread during decades that were dryer and characterized by La Niña and negative PDO conditions. Interannual and interdecadal fire–climate relationships were not stable over time. From 1700 to 1775 there was no interannual relationship between drought, PDO, and fire frequency or extent. However, from 1775 to 1850, widespread fires were associated with dry years preceded by wet years. This period also had the strongest association between fire extent and the PDO. In contrast, fire–climate associations at interdecadal time scales were stronger in the earlier period than in the later period. The change from strong interdecadal to strong interannual climate influence was associated with a breakdown in decadal scale constructive relationships between PDO and SOI. Main conclusions Climate strongly influenced pre‐settlement pine forest fire regimes in northern Sierra Nevada. Both interannual and interdecadal climatic variation regulated conditions conducive to fire activity, and longer term changes in fire frequency and extent correspond with climate‐mediated changes observed in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The sensitivity of fire regimes to shifts in modes of climatic variability suggests that climate was a key regulator of pine forest ecosystem structure and dynamics before EuroAmerican settlement. An understanding of pre‐EuroAmerican fire–climate relationships may provide useful insights into how fire activity in contemporary forests may respond to future climatic variation.     

Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

树木年轮火历史研究进展

树木年轮火灾学作为树木年轮学和林火生态学的一个重要交叉学科, 主要利用树轮火疤准确确定火灾发生年代, 从而研究过去和现在的火灾变化规律。树轮火灾学以其定年准确、分辨率高和时间久远等特点在森林火灾研究中具有极其重要的作用。该文对树木年轮火历史国内外 研究现状进行了简要评述, 国内树木年轮火历史研究尚处在起步阶段, 国外树木年轮火历史研究主要集中在以下几个方面:1) 火历史的时空格局特征, 主要包括林火发生的时间间隔、空间范围、强度、林火发生的时空关联、林火发生与立地条件的关系、林火发生与物种演替以及树轮火疤与其他方法相结合的火灾判 断等内容;2) 火灾历史与全球气候变化的关系, 主要包括火灾与温度和降水关系, 如一般在当年干旱而前几年相对湿润时火灾发生;火灾发生与大尺度气候事件也有一定的关联, 火灾一般发生在厄尔尼诺 (ElNiño) 向拉尼娜 (LaNiña) 转换的年代, 而且相位组合比单个事件更容易引发火灾;3) 火历史与人为活动及土地利用的关系, 战争和人口增加容易引发火灾, 而放牧活动却降低火灾发生频率, 20世纪以来的森林火抑制降低了火灾发生频率却增加了大火发生的可能性。最后对树木年轮火历史的未来进行了展望, 主要包括火灾时空格局的尺度效应、火历史变化的气候与人为驱动机制以及火历史研究方法的拓展等内容。     

Effects of climate on historical fire regimes (1451–2013) in Pinus hartwegii forests of Cofre de Perote National Park,Veracruz, Mexico

Cofre de Perote National Park (CPNP) in Veracruz, Mexico is part of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, and its Pinus hartwegii forests reflect a balance between the various natural factors that represent the region's climatology and hydrology. Like many other areas in this region, the historical fire regimes of these forests and their relationship with climate are unknown, but are needed for sustainable management plans. The main objectives of this study were to reconstruct the historical fire regime in a Pinus hartwegii forest and decipher the influenced of climate. Our investigation focused in two study areas, Valle la Teta (VT) and Barranca Honda (BH). The VT study area was divided into three sites based on humidity and elevation: 1) Humid (VTH), 2) Dry Low (VTDL) and 3) Dry High (VTDH). The approximated area for each site was ​​30, 30, 35 and 50 ha, for VTH, VTDL, VTDH and BH, respectively. We collected 162 fire scarred samples to reconstruct the fire history for the last 550 years (1461−2013). The fire scarred samples contained 1240 fire scars, with most fires occurring in spring (95 %) or summer (5%). Prior to 1973, these sites were characterized by a frequent surface fire regime. In all four sites, the mean fire intervals ranged from 5 to 6 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 10 % of the samples) and 13–23 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 25 % of the samples). Extensive fires (≥ 10 %) coincided with significantly dry conditions based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO). We also found a significant relationship between fire occurrence and ENSO, both in its warm phase, El Niño (21 fires ≥ 10 %) and in its cold phase, La Niña (32 fires ≥ 10 %). Synchronization of the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) with the cold phase of the PDO (negative), facilitated severe drought conditions, resulting in fires with the greatest spatial extent. Since 1973, extensive fires have been absent from the study area most likely due to anthropogenic activities including active fire suppression. These results show a strong climate-fire relationship in these high elevation forests. The lack of fire in the last four decades is concerning and could potentially lead to unnatural stand-replacing fires, unless the historical fire regime is restored to maintain natural processes and increase forest resilience.     

Drivers of fire occurrence in a mountainous Brazilian cerrado savanna: Tracking long-term fire regimes using remote sensing

Fire is a natural disturbance in savannas, and defines vegetation physiognomy and structure, often influencing species diversity. Fire activity is determined by a wide range of factors, including long and short term climatic conditions, climate seasonality, wind speed and direction, topography, and fuel biomass. In Brazil, fire shapes the structure and composition of cerrado savannas, and the impact of fire on vegetation dynamics is well explored, but the drivers of variation in fire disturbance across landscapes and over time are still poorly understood. We reconstructed 31 years of fire occurrence history in the Serra do Cipó region, a highly-diverse cerrado landscape, located in the southern portion of the Espinhaço mountain range, state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil. We mapped burn scars using a time series of Landsat satellite images from 1984 to 2014. Our questions were 1) How does fire occurrence vary in time and space across the Serra do Cipó cerrado landscape? 2) Which climatic drivers may explain the spatial and inter-annual variation in fire occurrence on this landscape? 3) Is fire occurrence in this cerrado landscape moisture-limited or fuel-limited? We evaluated the inter-annual variation and distribution of burned areas, and used linear models to explain this variation in terms of rainfall amount (determinant of fuel load production), seasonal rainfall distribution (determinant of dry fuel availability), abnormality of precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI), and vegetation type (Enhanced Vegetation Index – EVI). Contrary to our expectations, annual rainfall volume was weakly and negatively correlated with burned area, and the strongest predictor of burned area was drought during the ignition season. The length of the dry season and the distribution of rain along the season determined ignition probability, increasing fire occurrence during the driest periods. We conclude that the mountain cerrado vegetation at Serra do Cipó has a moisture-dependent fire regime, in contrast to the fuel-dependent fire regimes described for African savannas. These findings imply that savannas at different continents may have different recovery and resilience capabilities when subjected to changes in the fire regime, caused by direct anthropogenic activities or indirectly through climatic changes. The possible effects of these changes on cerrado landscapes are still unknown, and future studies should investigate if currently observed fire regimes have positive or negative impacts on vegetation diversity, recovery, resilience and phenology, thus helping managers to include fire management as conservation measure.     

Strong links between teleconnections and ecosystem exchange found at a Pacific Northwest old-growth forest from flux tower and MODIS EVI data

Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low‐elevation, old‐growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use 9 years of eddy covariance CO₂, H₂O and energy fluxes measured at the Wind River AmeriFlux site, Washington, USA and 8 years of tower‐pixel remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to address this question. We compute a new Composite Climate Index (CCI) based on the three Pacific Oscillations to divide the measurement period into positive‐ (2003 and 2005), negative‐ (1999 and 2000) and neutral‐phase climate years (2001, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2007). The forest transitioned from an annual net carbon sink (NEP=+217 g C m^?2 yr^?1, 1999) to a source (NEP=?100 g C m^?2 yr^?1, 2003) during two dominant teleconnection patterns. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) were significantly different (P<0.01) during positive (NEP=?0.27 g C m^?2 day^?1, WUE=4.1 mg C g^?1 H₂O, LUE=0.94 g C MJ^?1) and negative (NEP=+0.37 g C m^?2 day^?1, WUE=3.4 mg C g^?1 H₂O, LUE=0.83 g C MJ^?1) climate phases. The CCI was linked to variability in the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) but not to MODIS Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). EVI was highest during negative climate phases (1999 and 2000) and was positively correlated with NEP and showed potential for using MODIS to estimate teleconnection‐driven anomalies in ecosystem CO₂ exchange in old‐growth forests. This work suggests that any increase in the strength or frequency of ENSO coinciding with in‐phase, low frequency Pacific oscillations (PDO and PNA) will likely increase CO₂ uptake variability in Pacific Northwest conifer forests.     

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.     

Temporal and spatial patterns in fire occurrence during the establishment of mixed‐oak forests in eastern North America

Question: What was the role of fire during the establishment of the current overstory (ca. 1870–1940) in mixed‐oak forests of eastern North America? Location: Nine sites representing a 240‐km latitudinal gradient on the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus of eastern North America. Methods: Basal cross‐sections were collected from 225 trees. Samples were surfaced, and fire scars were dated. Fire history diagrams were constructed and fire return intervals were calculated for each site. Geographic patterns of fire occurrence, and fire‐climate relationships were assessed. Results: Fire was a frequent and widespread occurrence during the formation of mixed‐oak forests, which initiated after large‐scale land clearing in the region ca. 1870. Fire return ranged from 1.7 to 11.1 years during a period of frequent burning from 1875 to 1936. Fires were widespread during this period, sometimes occurring across the study region in the same year. Fires occurred in a variety of climate conditions, including both drought and non‐drought years. Fires were rare from 1936 to the present. Conclusions: A variety of fire regime characteristics were discerned. First, a period of frequent fire lasted approximately 60 years during the establishment of the current oak overstory. Second, fire occurred during a variety of climate conditions, including wet climates and extreme drought. Finally, there was within‐site temporal variability in fire occurrence. These reference conditions could be mimicked in ongoing oak restoration activities, improving the likelihood of restoration success.     

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers'' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.     

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal‐scale biological variability

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low‐frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal‐scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal‐scale (1965–2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1–2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1–2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1–2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out‐performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1–2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation modulates insect outbreaks in humid subtropical China: Evidences from tree rings and carbon isotopes

Insect outbreaks are key disturbances triggering decline episodes in humid subtropical evergreen forests in eastern China. However, their long-term variability and linkages to climate are still unclear largely due to the shortness of records reporting forest damage. A retrospective approach would improve our understanding of long-term outbreak variability and its dependence on climate and relevant atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides a dendrochronological reconstruction of Dendrolimus punctatus outbreaks affecting Pinus massoniana in humid subtropical eastern China. We used tree-ring width and carbon isotope data from sites where outbreaks were or not were reported for the past fifty years, here considered as host and non-host sites, respectively. The results showed that inter-annual changes in carbon isotope discrimination are more sensitive to outbreaks than changes in tree-ring width. Based on carbon isotopes, we inferred that photosynthetic rates increased as a compensatory mechanism in response to insect defoliation. We reconstructed eleven insect outbreaks since 1915, which corresponded to ENSO positive phases and below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These conditions correspond to “La Niña” episodes which induce hot and dry climate conditions across the study region and these may facilitate the occurrence of D. punctatus outbreaks.     

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.     

Relationship between fire,climate oscillations,and drought in British Columbia,Canada, 1920–2000

Climate oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are known to affect temperature and precipitation regimes and fire in different regions of the world. Understanding the relationships between climate oscillations, drought, and area burned in the past is required for anticipating potential impacts of regional climate change and for effective wildfire‐hazard management. These relationships have been investigated for British Columbia (BC), Canada, either as part of national studies with coarse spatial resolution or for single ecosystems. Because of BC's complex terrain and strong climatic gradients, an investigation with higher spatial resolution may allow for a spatially complete but differentiated picture. In this study, we analyzed the annual proportion burned–climate oscillation–drought relationships for the province's 16 Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) zones. Analyses are based on a digital, spatially explicit fire database, climate oscillation indices, and monthly precipitation and temperature data with a spatial resolution of 400 m for the period 1920–2000. Results show that (1) fire variability is better related to summer drought than to climate oscillations, and that (2) fire variability is most strongly related to both, climate oscillations and summer drought in southeastern BC. The relationship of area burned and summer drought is strong for lower elevations in western BC as well. The influence of climate oscillations on drought is strongest and most extensive in winter and spring, with higher indices being related to drier conditions. Winter and spring PDO and additive winter and spring PDO+ENSO indices show BC's most extensive significant relationship to fire variability. Western BC is too wet to show a moisture deficit in summer that would increase annual area burned due to teleconnections.     

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962–2006) and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20‐year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The best‐supported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.