Moisture status during a strong El Niño explains a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models explained species composition within the cloud forest with non-El Niño rainfall; however, the ecotone at the cloud forest’s upper limit was modeled with relative humidity during a strong El Niño drought and secondarily with non-El Niño rainfall. This forest ecotone may be particularly responsive to strong, short-duration climate variability because taxa here, particularly the isohydric dominant Metrosideros polymorpha, are near their physiological limits. Overall, this study demonstrates moisture’s overarching influence on a tropical montane ecosystem, and suggests that short-term climate events affecting moisture status are particularly relevant at tropical ecotones. This study further suggests that predicting the consequences of climate change here, and perhaps in other tropical montane settings, will rely on the skill and certainty around future climate models of regional rainfall, relative humidity, and El Niño.     

Climate–growth relationships of the dominant tree species from semi-arid savanna woodland in Ethiopia

Long-term climate–growth relationships, were examined in tree rings of four co-occurring tree species from semi-arid Acacia savanna woodlands in Ethiopia. The main purpose of the study was to prove the presence of annual tree rings, evaluate the relationship between radial growth and climate parameters, and evaluate the association of El Niño and drought years in Ethiopia. The results showed that all species studied form distinct growth boundaries, though differences in distinctiveness were revealed among the species. Tree rings of the evergreen Balanites aegyptiaca were separated by vessels surrounding a thin parenchyma band and the growth boundary of the deciduous acacias was characterized by thin parenchyma bands. The mean annual diameter increment ranged from 3.6 to 5.0 mm. Acacia senegal and Acacia seyal showed more enhanced growth than Acacia tortilis and B. aegyptiaca. High positive correlations were found between the tree-ring width chronologies and precipitation data, and all species showed similar response to external climate forcing, which supports the formation of one tree-ring per year. Strong declines in tree-ring width correlated remarkably well with past El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and drought/famine periods in Ethiopia. Spectral analysis of the master tree-ring chronology indicated occurrences of periodic drought events, which fall within the spectral peak equivalent to 2–8 years. Our results proved the strong linkage between tree-ring chronologies and climate, which sheds light on the potential of dendrochronological studies developing in Ethiopia. The outcome of this study has important implications for paleoclimatic reconstructions and in restoration of degraded lands.     

Effects of El Niño drought on seedling dynamics in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Northern Thailand

As El Niño is predicted to become stronger and more frequent in the future, it is crucial to understand how El Niño-induced droughts will affect tropical forests. Although many studies have focused on tropical rainforests, there is a paucity of studies on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), particularly in Asia, and few studies have focused on seedling dynamics, which are expected to be strongly affected by drought. Seedlings in SDTFs are generally more drought-tolerant than those in the rainforests, and the effects of El Niño-induced droughts may differ between SDTF and tropical rainforests. In this study, we explored the impact of El Niño-induced drought at an SDTF in northern Thailand by monitoring the seedling dynamics at monthly intervals for 7 years, including a period of strong El Niño. The effects were compared between two forest types in an SDTF: a deciduous dipterocarp forest (DDF), dominated by deciduous species, and an adjacent lower montane forest (LMF) with more evergreen species. El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality in both the forest types. The effect of drought was stronger in evergreen than in the deciduous species, resulting in higher mortality in the LMF during El Niño. However, El Niño increased seedling recruitment only in the DDF, mainly because of the massive recruitment of the deciduous oak, Quercus brandisiana (Fagaceae), which compensated for the mortality of seedlings in the DDF. As a result, El Niño increased seedling density in the DDF and decreased it in the LMF. This is the first long-term study to identify the differences in the impacts of El Niño on seedlings between the two forest types, and two leaf habits, evergreen and deciduous, in Southeast Asia. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter the species composition and spatial distribution of seedlings in Asian SDTFs.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation modulates insect outbreaks in humid subtropical China: Evidences from tree rings and carbon isotopes

Insect outbreaks are key disturbances triggering decline episodes in humid subtropical evergreen forests in eastern China. However, their long-term variability and linkages to climate are still unclear largely due to the shortness of records reporting forest damage. A retrospective approach would improve our understanding of long-term outbreak variability and its dependence on climate and relevant atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides a dendrochronological reconstruction of Dendrolimus punctatus outbreaks affecting Pinus massoniana in humid subtropical eastern China. We used tree-ring width and carbon isotope data from sites where outbreaks were or not were reported for the past fifty years, here considered as host and non-host sites, respectively. The results showed that inter-annual changes in carbon isotope discrimination are more sensitive to outbreaks than changes in tree-ring width. Based on carbon isotopes, we inferred that photosynthetic rates increased as a compensatory mechanism in response to insect defoliation. We reconstructed eleven insect outbreaks since 1915, which corresponded to ENSO positive phases and below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These conditions correspond to “La Niña” episodes which induce hot and dry climate conditions across the study region and these may facilitate the occurrence of D. punctatus outbreaks.     

Effect of climate on tree growth in the Pampa biome of Southeastern South America: First tree-ring chronologies from Uruguay

Tree-ring research in the highland tropics and subtropics represents a major frontier for understanding climate-growth relationships. Nonetheless, there are many lowland regions – including the South American Pampa biome – with scarce tree ring data. We present the first two tree-ring chronologies for Scutia buxifolia in subtropical Southeastern South America (SESA), using 54 series from 29 trees in two sites in northern and southern Uruguay. We cross-dated annual rings and compared tree growth from 1950 to 2012 with regional climate variability, including rainfall, temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index – PDSI, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Overall, ring width variability was highly responsive to climate signals linked to water availability. For example, tree growth was positively correlated with accumulated rainfall in the summer-fall prior to ring formation for both chronologies. Summer climate conditions were key for tree growth, as shown by a negative effect of hot summer temperatures and a positive correlation with PDSI in late austral summer. The El Niño phase in late spring/early summer favored an increase in rainfall and annual tree growth, while the La Niña phase was associated with less rainfall and reduced tree growth. Extratropical climate factors such as SAM had an equally relevant effect on tree growth, whereby the positive phase of SAM had a negative effect over radial growth. These findings demonstrate the potential for dendroclimatic research and climate reconstruction in a region with scarce tree-ring data. They also improve the understanding of how climate variability may affect woody growth in native forests – an extremely limited ecosystem in the Pampa biome.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

Climate fluctuation effects on breeding of blue penguins (Eudyptula minor)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña climate perturbations alter sea currents and food availability for seabirds in many areas of the world. This changes their breeding success and mortality. Blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding success is dependent upon whether one or two clutches per season are laid, and the hatching and fledging success of these clutches. This study uses six years of data from five blue penguin breeding colonies, three from Taiaroa Head, Otago Peninsula and two from Oamaru, to examine whether annual variation in breeding success correlates with El Niño/La Niña perturbations. When La Niña conditions prevailed, penguins started breeding later, and there was a lower proportion of double breeders than in El Niño and normal years. The probability of a newly hatched chick surviving to fledging was also dependent on whether large‐scale climatic conditions prevailed, whereas hatching success and overall breeding success (number of fledged chicks per breeding pair) showed no correlation with climate perturbations.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Dendrochronological potential of four neotropical dry-forest tree species: Climate-growth correlations in northeast Brazil

Tropical dry forests (TDF) are highly important tropical forest ecosystems. Yet, these forests are highly threatened, usually neglected and only poorly studied. Understanding the long-term influences of environmental conditions on tree growth in these forests is crucial to understand the functioning, carbon dynamics and potential responses to future climate change of these forests. Dendrochronology can be used as a tool to provide these insights but has only scantly been applied in (dry) tropical forests. Here we evaluate the dendrochronological potential of four Caatinga neotropical dry forest tree species – Aspidosperma pyrifolium, Ziziphus joazeiro, Tabebuia aurea, and Libidibia ferrea – collected in two locations in northeastern Brazil (Sergipe state). We provide an anatomical characterization of the ring boundaries for the four species and investigate correlations of their growth with local and regional climatic variables. All four species form annual rings and show high inter-correlation (up to 0.806) and sensitivity (up to 0.565). Growth of all species correlated with local precipitation as well as with sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and/or tropical Pacific oceans. We also show teleconnections between growth and the El Niño South Oscillation. The strong dependence of tree on precipitation is worrisome, considering that climate change scenarios forecast increased drought conditions in the Caatinga dry forest. Including more species and expanding dendrochronological studies to more areas would greatly improve our understanding of tree growth and functioning in TDFs. This type of knowledge is essential to assist the conservation, management and restoration of these critical tropical ecosystems.     

Traditional medicines as a mechanism for driving research innovation in Africa

Background

Malaria remains a serious problem in French Guiana, which is at potential risk for drought linked with the El Niño Event and where there could be a risk of malaria epidemic after the onset of an El Niño event.

Methods

A time series analysis using ARIMA was developed to investigate temporal correlations between the monthly Plasmodium falciparum case numbers and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the Cayenne General Hospital between 1996 and 2009.

Results

The data showed a positive influence of El Niño at a lag of three months on P. falciparum cases (p < 0.001). The incorporation of SOI data in the ARIMA model reduced the AIC by 4%.

Conclusions

Although there is a statistical link, the predictive value of ENSO to modulate prevention intervention seems marginal in French Guiana. However, additional work should refine the regional dependence of malaria on the ENSO state.     

Influence of precipitation seasonality on piñon pine cellulose δD values

The influence of seasonal to interannual climate variations on cellulose hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) was assessed by analysing tree rings and needles of piñon pine (Pinus edulis and P. monophylla). Sites spanned a gradient of decreasing summer precipitation, from New Mexico to Arizona to Nevada. Tree rings were divided into earlywood, latewood and whole‐year increments, and annual cohorts of needles were collected. The study period (1989–96) included two La Niña events (1989, 1996) and a prolonged El Niño event (1991–95). Winter and spring moisture conditions were strongly related to October–March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in New Mexico and Arizona, with above‐average precipitation occurring in El Niño years. Wood δD values at these sites were correlated with winter and spring moisture conditions. Needle δD values were correlated with summer moisture conditions in New Mexico and with winter moisture and SOI in Arizona. Low cellulose δD values observed from 1991 to 1993 in both wood and needles occurred during wet El Niño years, whereas high δD values in needles were present during the dry, La Niña years of 1989 and 1996. North‐eastern Nevada does not receive precipitation anomalies related to ENSO, and thus cellulose δD values did not reflect the ENSO pattern observed at the other sites. Cellulose δD values were strongly, inversely correlated with relative humidity variations at all sites, as predicted by a mechanistic model. Contrary to predictions from the same model and observations from more mesic areas, time series of cellulose δD values were not directly correlated with interannual or seasonal variations in precipitation δD values or temperature at any of the sites. On a regional basis, however, mean δD values in needles and wood were correlated with mean annual temperature and δD values of precipitation. This suggests that temporal averaging may bias relationships between biological systems and climate.     

Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

Methane (CH₄) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH₄ emissions. Decreased wetland CH₄ emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH₄ emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process‐based model of global wetland CH₄ emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH₄ emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH₄ emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8‐month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH₄ emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH₄ emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH₄ emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH₄ concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH₄ concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.     

Effects of climate on historical fire regimes (1451–2013) in Pinus hartwegii forests of Cofre de Perote National Park,Veracruz, Mexico

Cofre de Perote National Park (CPNP) in Veracruz, Mexico is part of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, and its Pinus hartwegii forests reflect a balance between the various natural factors that represent the region's climatology and hydrology. Like many other areas in this region, the historical fire regimes of these forests and their relationship with climate are unknown, but are needed for sustainable management plans. The main objectives of this study were to reconstruct the historical fire regime in a Pinus hartwegii forest and decipher the influenced of climate. Our investigation focused in two study areas, Valle la Teta (VT) and Barranca Honda (BH). The VT study area was divided into three sites based on humidity and elevation: 1) Humid (VTH), 2) Dry Low (VTDL) and 3) Dry High (VTDH). The approximated area for each site was ​​30, 30, 35 and 50 ha, for VTH, VTDL, VTDH and BH, respectively. We collected 162 fire scarred samples to reconstruct the fire history for the last 550 years (1461−2013). The fire scarred samples contained 1240 fire scars, with most fires occurring in spring (95 %) or summer (5%). Prior to 1973, these sites were characterized by a frequent surface fire regime. In all four sites, the mean fire intervals ranged from 5 to 6 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 10 % of the samples) and 13–23 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 25 % of the samples). Extensive fires (≥ 10 %) coincided with significantly dry conditions based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO). We also found a significant relationship between fire occurrence and ENSO, both in its warm phase, El Niño (21 fires ≥ 10 %) and in its cold phase, La Niña (32 fires ≥ 10 %). Synchronization of the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) with the cold phase of the PDO (negative), facilitated severe drought conditions, resulting in fires with the greatest spatial extent. Since 1973, extensive fires have been absent from the study area most likely due to anthropogenic activities including active fire suppression. These results show a strong climate-fire relationship in these high elevation forests. The lack of fire in the last four decades is concerning and could potentially lead to unnatural stand-replacing fires, unless the historical fire regime is restored to maintain natural processes and increase forest resilience.     

Prokaryotic community dynamics and nitrogen-cycling genes in an oxygen-deficient upwelling system during La Niña and El Niño conditions

Dissolved oxygen regulates microbial distribution and nitrogen cycling and, therefore, ocean productivity and Earth's climate. To date, the assembly of microbial communities in relation to oceanographic changes due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains poorly understood in oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). The Mexican Pacific upwelling system supports high productivity and a permanent OMZ. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution of the prokaryotic community and nitrogen-cycling genes was investigated along a repeated transect subjected to varying oceanographic conditions associated with La Niña in 2018 and El Niño in 2019. The community was more diverse during La Niña and in the aphotic OMZ, dominated by the Subtropical Subsurface water mass, where the highest abundances of nitrogen-cycling genes were found. The largest proportion of the Gulf of California water mass during El Niño provided warmer, more oxygenated, and nutrient-poor waters towards the coast, leading to a significant increase of Synechococcus in the euphotic layer compared with the opposite conditions during La Niña. These findings suggest that prokaryotic assemblages and nitrogen genes are linked to local physicochemical conditions (e.g. light, oxygen, nutrients), but also to oceanographic fluctuations associated with ENSO phases, indicating the crucial role of climate variability in microbial community dynamics in this OMZ.     

El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

SCALE‐DEPENDENT PATTERNS OF DISTURBANCE AND RECOVERY IN GIANT KELP FORESTS

We studied spatial variability in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests at 84 sites along the west coast of North America in order to assess the impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño. Our sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northern Hemisphere and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than one year after, and nearly two years after the El Niño. Interspersion of sample units allowed us to compare the effects of this disturbance among spatial scales ranging from a few meters to more than a thousand kilometers. Variance components analyses revealed that El Niño shifted the relative importance of factors that regulate giant kelp communities from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating at hundreds of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in a near‐to‐complete loss of giant kelp populations throughout nearly two‐thirds of the species' range. Evaluation of these effects along with oceanographic data (at the “appropriate” spatial scales), along with closer examination of giant kelp populations in the most severely impacted region (Baja) suggested that the among‐region differences in giant kelp survival was due, at least in part, to El Niño‐induced differences in ocean climate. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was also scale‐dependent, but driven by factors different from those of the disturbance. Here, we present results for several species of macroalgae in an attempt to relate the importance of El Niño to that of other processes in creating scale‐dependent patterns of variability.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.     

Responses of foraminiferal assemblages to ENSO climate patterns on bank reefs of northern Bahia,Brazil: A 17-year record

Benthic Foraminifera were assessed in Rose Bengal-stained sediment samples collected annually from 1995 to 2011 at four shallow bank reefs in Northern Bahia (Brazil). The assemblage was represented by 284 species and 88 genera, the most diverse genera being Quinqueloculina (46 spp.), Triloculina (24 spp.), Articulina (13 spp.), Textularia (11 spp.), and Elphidium (10 spp.). Significant differences in densities of live foraminifers in the sediments were observed among years, though not between reefs. Mean densities and diversities declined by ∼90% during the 1997–8 El Niño event compared with the two previous years, then rebounded during the strong La Niña years of 1999–2000, with rapid recovery of populations of small, heterotrophic foraminifers in the assemblage. After 2000, mean densities and diversities fluctuated, with lows following both the 2006–7 and 2009–10 weak El Niño events, but not so pronounced as during the 1997–8 event. Multivariate analysis clearly formed four separate groupings representing strong (hot, dry) and weak El Niño (dry) years, “normal” years, and strong La Niña (high rainfall) years. The FoRAM Index (FI), which is a single-metric index for water quality associated with reef accretion, provided additional insights into assemblage responses. The FI compares relative abundances of three functional groups of benthic foraminifers: characteristic reef-dwelling larger foraminifers that host algal endosymbionts, the ubiquitous heterotrophic smaller taxa, and specifically stress-tolerant heterotrophic taxa. The striking decline in overall densities during El Niño years likely reflects reduced food supply for the heterotrophic taxa, associated with higher temperatures and reduced runoff. Decline in the taxa that host algal symbionts is consistent with reports of extensive coral bleaching, likely related to photo-oxidative stress caused by higher temperatures and increased water transparency. The significant changes in assemblage structure and composition recorded during this 17-year study demonstrate the major influence of climatic variability associated with the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation.     

Analysis of Four Macroalgal Assemblages along the Pacific Mexican Coast during and after the 1997–98 El Niño

We examined the changes in four intertidal macroalgal assemblages sampled at 3-month intervals during and after the 1997–98 El Niño. The assemblages were analyzed using several numerical analyses (specific richness, H′ diversity) and multivariate techniques (ANOSIM, cluster, and MDS analyses). During El Niño 1997–98, the water temperature in the sampled zone was almost 5°C above the long-term mean. The apparent impact of this factor was greatest in winter–spring 1998. Our results suggest that El Niño influenced the structure of these assemblages in four different ways: (a) El Niño was associated with number of species (lowest in 1998) and H′ diversity, which increased in the winter of 1999, when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was inactive, from 1.2 to 2.3. (b) The average biomass of the macroalgae was significantly greater in the ENSO year (139 g dry weight/m²) than in the non-ENSO year (42 g dry weight/m²) (c) El Niño conditions were associated with a high population abundance of species of tropical affinity, such as Agardhiella tenera (22.05 g dry weight/m² in 1998 versus 0.7 g dry weight/m² in 1999), Amphiroa misakiensis (32 versus 1.1), Caulerpa sertularoides (15.35 versus 0), Padina durvillaei (9.2 versus 0.2), Jania capillacea (4.1 versus 0), and Jania mexicana (1.5 versus 0). In 1999, other species with a more temperate affinity appeared, such as Laurencia pacifica (0.12 versus 8.76 g/m²) and Colpomenia sinuosa (0 versus 4.8). (d) The multivariate techniques showed that differences among the structure of the four assemblages were more evident in 1999. The greatest homogeneity was detected during ENSO winter–spring, which suggests a communitywide change consistent with the El Niño event.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.