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1.
    
Climate change has affected plant phenology; increasing temperatures are associated with advancing first flowering dates. The impact on flowering duration, however, has rarely been studied. In this study, we analysed first flowering dates and flowering durations from a 27 year dataset of weekly flower observations on 232 plant species from the island of Guernsey in the English Channel. The aim of this study was to explore variation in trends and relationships between first flowering dates, flowering duration and temperature. We specifically looked for evidence that traits, such as life forms and phylogenetic groups, explained variation in sensitivity of first flowering and flowering duration among species. Overall trends revealed significantly earlier flowering over time, by an average of 5.2 days decade?1 since 1985. A highly significant shortening of flowering duration was observed by an average of 10 days decade?1. Correlations between first flowering, flowering duration and year varied between different species, traits and flowering periods. Significant differences among traits were observed for first flowering and to a lesser degree for flowering duration. Overall, in comparison to first flowering, more species had significant trends in flowering duration. Temperature relationships revealed large differences in strength and direction of response. 55% of the species revealed a significant negative relationship of first flowering dates and temperature. In contrast, only 19% of flowering durations had a significant negative temperature relationship. The advance in first flowering date together with a shortening of flowering duration suggests potentially serious impacts on pollinators, which might pose a major threat to biodiversity, agriculture and horticulture. Human health, in terms of pollen allergies, however, might benefit from a shortening of specific plant pollen seasons.  相似文献   

2.
    
Phenology is one of the most reliable tools for understanding the effect of climate change on forests. Although there has been increasing research into the effect of climate on phenological activity, little is known about how phenological patterns for the same species may vary among environments, particularly for tropical species. Here we analyzed the reproductive phenology of an important tropical rainforest tree species in northeastern Australia, Cardwellia sublimis, and compared the patterns among five different sites. We also tested and compared the climate drivers of reproductive phenological activity among sites for this species. Degree of seasonality varied across sites with most sites presenting moderate to high seasonality. Flowering and fruiting peaked in different seasons at the different sites and we found flowering and fruiting phenology were often influenced by different climate drivers at the different sites. Where the climate drivers were the same, the magnitude and direction of the effect of the drivers differed among sites. Precipitation was the most common climate driver of flowering, being significant for all sites, while fruiting was predominantly influenced by temperature and solar radiation. Finally, we found evidence that relationships between climate drivers and phenological patterns were dependent on inter-site differences in climate and geography. Our results demonstrate that species may present varied phenological patterns and varied responses to climate drivers depending on environmental conditions and site location. These results have important implications for modelling phenological patterns based on limited field information, as well as for understanding species vulnerability to climate change.  相似文献   

3.
    
Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above‐ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old‐growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functioning due to global change and/or long‐lasting recovery from past disturbance. We introduce a novel approach to disentangle the relative contributions of these mechanisms by decomposing changes in whole‐plot biomass fluxes into contributions from changes in the distribution of gap‐successional stages and changes in fluxes for a given stage. Using 30 years of forest dynamic data at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we investigated temporal variation in EAGB fluxes as a function of initial EAGB (EAGBi) in 10 × 10 m quadrats. Productivity and mortality fluxes both increased strongly with initial quadrat EAGB. The distribution of EAGB (and thus EAGBi) across quadrats hardly varied over 30 years (and seven censuses). EAGB fluxes as a function of EAGBi varied largely and significantly among census intervals, with notably higher productivity in 1985–1990 associated with recovery from the 1982–1983 El Niño event. Variation in whole‐plot fluxes among census intervals was explained overwhelmingly by variation in fluxes as a function of EAGBi, with essentially no contribution from changes in EAGBi distributions. The high observed temporal variation in productivity and mortality suggests that this forest is very sensitive to climate variability. There was no consistent long‐term trend in productivity, mortality, or biomass in this forest over 30 years, although the temporal variability in productivity and mortality was so strong that it could well mask a substantial trend. Accurate prediction of future tropical forest carbon budgets will require accounting for disturbance‐recovery dynamics and understanding temporal variability in productivity and mortality.  相似文献   

4.
    
The timing and frequency of flowering and fruiting events are key tropical forest characteristics that have substantial influence on fauna. Although our understanding of geographic variation in habitat‐wide timing and frequency of flowering and fruiting is advancing, corresponding information for individual tree species is limited. Thus, we compared climate and reproductive phenology of 16 tree species over 70 mo at two Bornean tropical peat‐swamp forest sites. We found significant inter‐site correlations in rainfall and temperature, and only small absolute temperature differences. In both sites, most species exhibited within‐site synchrony in flowering and fruiting onset. Broad‐scale flowering and fruiting onset frequency classifications showed high congruence between sites. Significant correlations in flowering and fruiting onset timing between sites were found for only 19 and 17 percent of the species, respectively. This remained the case when applying 1‐ and 2‐month lag periods for both sites, with neither site consistently lagging behind. Significant differences in the exact frequency of new flowering and fruiting events were detected for 44 and 58 percent of species, respectively, and no significant relationships between the onset timing synchrony and exact frequency of new reproductive events were found for either flowers or fruit. We conclude that inter‐site climatic and ecological similarities do not necessarily lead to high inter‐site synchrony in either onset timing or exact frequency of tree reproductive events. Potential reasons for this are discussed, as are the implications for understanding tropical forest ecology and improving forest restoration project seed collections.  相似文献   

5.
    
The secondary production of culturally acidified streams is low, with a few species of generalist detritivores dominating invertebrate assemblages, while decomposition processes are impaired. In a series of lowland headwater streams in southern England, we measured the rate of cellulolytic decomposition and compared it with values measured three decades ago, when anthropogenic acidification was at its peak. We hypothesized that, if acidity has indeed ameliorated, the rate of decomposition will have accelerated, thus potentially supporting greater secondary production and the longer food chains that have been observed in some well‐studied recovering freshwater systems. We used cellulose Shirley test cloth as a standardized bioassay to measure the rate of cellulolytic decomposition, via loss in tensile strength, for 31 streams in the Ashdown Forest over 7 days in summer 2011 and 49 days in winter 2012. We compared this with data from an otherwise identical study conducted in 1978 and 1979. In a secondary study, we determined whether decomposition followed a linear or logarithmic decay and, as Shirley cloth is no longer available, we tested an alternative in the form of readily available calico. Overall mean pH had increased markedly over the 32 years between the studies (from 6.0 to 6.7). In both the previous and contemporary studies, the relationship between decomposition and pH was strongest in winter, when pH reaches a seasonal minimum. As in the late 1970s, there was no relationship in 2011/2012 between pH and decay rate in summer. As postulated, decomposition in winter was significantly faster in 2011/2012 than in 1978/1979, with an average increase in decay rate of 18.1%. Recovery from acidification, due to decreased acidifying emissions and deposition, has led to an increase in the rate of cellulolytic decomposition. This response in a critical ecosystem process offers a potential explanation of one aspect of the limited biological recovery that has been observed so far, an increase in larger bodied predators including fish, which in turn leads to an increase in the length of food chains.  相似文献   

6.
1. As long‐term observational lake records continue to lengthen, the historical overlap with lake sediment records grows, providing increasing opportunities for placing the contemporary ecological status of lakes in a temporal perspective. 2. Comparisons between long‐term data sets and sediment records, however, require lake sediments to be accurately dated and for sediment accumulation rates to be sufficiently rapid to allow precise matching with observational data. 3. The critical role of the sediment record in this context is its value in tracking the changing impact of human activity on a lake from a pre‐disturbance reference through to the present day. 4. Here, we use data from a range of lakes across Europe presented as case studies in this Special Section. The seven sites considered all possess both long‐term observational records and high‐quality sediment records. Our objective is to assess whether recent climate change is having an impact on their trophic status and in particular whether that impact can be disentangled from the changes associated with nutrient pollution. 5. The palaeo‐data show clear evidence for the beginning of nutrient pollution varying from the mid‐nineteenth century at Loch Leven to the early and middle twentieth century at other sites. The monitoring data show different degrees of recovery when judged against the palaeo‐reference. 6. The reason for limited recovery is attributed to continuing high nutrient concentrations related to an increase in diffuse nutrient loading or to internal P recycling, but there is some evidence that climate change may be playing a role in offsetting recovery at some sites. If this is the case, then lake ecosystems suffering from eutrophication may not necessarily return to their pre‐eutrophication reference status despite the measures that have been taken to reduce external nutrient loading. 7. The extent to which future warming might further limit such recovery can be evaluated only by continued monitoring combined with the use of palaeo‐records that set the pre‐eutrophication reference.  相似文献   

7.
Wetlands are the largest natural source of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. Despite the fact that a large percentage of wetlands occur in tropical latitudes, methane emissions from natural tropical wetlands have not been extensively studied. The objective this research was to compare methane emissions from three natural tropical wetlands located in different climatic and ecological areas of Costa Rica. Each wetland was within a distinct ecosystem: (1) a humid flow‐through wetland slough with high mean annual temperatures (25.9 °C) and precipitation (3700 mm yr?1); (2) a stagnant rainforest wetland with high mean annual temperatures (24.9 °C) and precipitation (4400 mm yr?1); or (3) a seasonally wet riverine wetland with very high mean annual temperatures (28.2 °C) and lower mean annual precipitation (1800 mm yr?1). Methane emission rates were measured from sequential gas samples using nonsteady state plastic chambers during six sampling periods over a 29‐month period from 2006 to 2009. Methane emissions were higher than most rates previously reported for tropical wetlands with means (medians) of 91 (52), 601 (79), and 719 (257) mg CH4‐C m?2 day?1 for the three sites, with highest rates seen at the seasonally flooded wetland site. Methane emissions were statistically higher at the seasonally wet site than at the humid sites (P<0.001). Highest methane emissions occurred when surface water levels were between 30 and 50 cm. The interaction of soil temperature, water depth, and seasonal flooding most likely affected methanogenesis in these tropical sites. We estimate that Costa Rican wetlands produce about 0.80 Tg yr?1 of methane, or approximately 0.6% of global tropical wetland emissions. Elevated methane emissions at the seasonally wet/warmer wetland site suggest that some current humid tropical freshwater wetlands of Central America could emit more methane if temperatures increase and precipitation becomes more seasonal with climate change.  相似文献   

8.
    
In the face of rapid environmental and cultural change, long‐term ecological research (LTER) and social‐ecological research (LTSER) are more important than ever. LTER contributes disproportionately to ecology and policy, evidenced by the greater proportion of LTER in higher impact journals and the disproportionate representation of LTER in reports informing policymaking. Historical evidence has played a significant role in restoration projects and it will continue to guide restoration into the future, but its use is often hampered by lack of information, leading to considerable uncertainties. By facilitating the storage and retrieval of historical information, LTSER will prove valuable for future restoration.  相似文献   

9.
    
Many bird populations in temperate regions have advanced their timing of breeding in response to a warming climate in recent decades. However, long‐term trends in temperature differ geographically and between seasons, and so do responses of local breeding populations. Data on breeding bird phenology from subarctic and arctic passerine populations are scarce, and relatively little data has been recorded in open‐nesting species. We investigated the timing of breeding and its relationship to spring temperature of 14 mainly open‐nesting passerine species in subarctic Swedish Lapland over a period of 32 years (1984–2015). We estimated timing of breeding from the progress of post‐juvenile moult in mist‐netted birds, a new method exploring the fact that the progress of post‐juvenile moult correlates with age. Although there was a numerical tendency for earlier breeding in most species (on average ?0.09 days/year), changes were statistically significant in only three species (by ?0.16 to ?0.23 days/year). These figures are relatively low compared with what has been found in other long‐term studies but are similar to a few other studies in subarctic areas. Generally, annual hatching dates were negatively correlated with mean temperature in May. This correlation was stronger in long‐distance than in short‐distance migrants. Although annual temperatures at high northern latitudes have increased over recent decades, there was no long‐term increase in mean temperature in May over the study period at this subarctic site. This is probably the main reason why there were only small long‐term changes in hatching dates.  相似文献   

10.
1. As future climate change is expected to have a major impact on freshwater lake ecosystems, it is important to assess the extent to which changes taking place in freshwater lakes can be attributed to the degree of climate change that has already taken place. 2. To address this issue, it is necessary to examine evidence spanning many decades by combining long‐term observational data sets and palaeolimnological records. 3. Here, we introduce a series of case studies of seven European lakes for which both long‐term data sets and sediment records are available. Most of the sites have been affected by eutrophication and are now in recovery. 4. The studies attempt to disentangle the effects of climate change from those of nutrient pollution and conclude that nutrient pollution is still the dominant factor controlling the trophic state of lakes. 5. At most sites, however, there is also evidence of climate influence related in some cases to natural variability in the climate system, and in others to the trend to higher temperatures over recent decades attributed to anthropogenic warming. 6. More generally and despite some problems, the studies indicate the value of combining limnological and palaeolimnological records in reconstructing lake history and in disentangling the changing role of different pressures on lake ecosystems.  相似文献   

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