Quantifying the completeness of the bat fossil record

Bats (Chiroptera) are one of the most successful extant mammalian orders, uniquely capable of powered flight and laryngeal echolocation. The timing and evidence for evolution of their novel adaptations have been difficult to ascertain from the fossil record due to chronological gaps and the fragmentary nature of most fossil bat material. Here, we quantify the quality of the bat fossil record using skeletal and character completeness metrics, which respectively document for each taxon what proportion of a complete skeleton is preserved, and the proportion of phylogenetic characters that can be scored. Completeness scores were collected for 441 valid fossil bat species in 167 genera from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. All metrics record similar temporal patterns: peak completeness in the Lutetian stage reflects the presence of Lagerstätten, while subsequent stages have very low completeness, except an Aquitanian high and a Pleistocene peak in skeletal completeness. Bat completeness is not correlated with intensity of sampling through geological time but has a weak negative correlation with publication date. There is no correlation between taxonomic richness and completeness, as the bat record predominately consists of diagnostic but isolated teeth. Consequently, bat skeletal completeness is the lowest of any previously assessed tetrapod group, but character completeness is similar to parareptiles and birds. Bats have significantly higher character completeness in the northern hemisphere, probably due to heightened historical interest and presence of Lagerstätten. Taxa derived from caves are more complete than those from fluviolacustrine and marine deposits, but do not preserve highly complete specimens.     

The mosasaur fossil record through the lens of fossil completeness

The quality of the fossil record affects our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns. Palaeodiversity is filtered through geological and human processes; efforts to correct for these biases are part of a debate concerning the role of sampling proxies and standardization in biodiversity models. We analyse the fossil record of mosasaurs in terms of fossil completeness as a measure of fossil quality, using three novel, correlating metrics of fossil completeness and 4083 specimens. A new qualitative measure of character completeness (QCM) correlates with the phylogenetic character completeness metric. Mean completeness by species decreases with specimen count; average completeness by substage varies significantly. Mean specimen completeness is higher for species‐named fossils than those identified to genus and family. We consider the effect of tooth‐only specimens. Importantly, we find that completeness of species does not correlate with completeness of specimens. Completeness varies by palaeogeography: North American specimens show higher completeness than those from Eurasia and Gondwana. These metrics can be used to identify exceptional preservation; specimen completeness varies significantly by both formation and lithology. The Belgian Ciply Formation displays the highest completeness; clay lithologies show higher completeness values. Neither species diversity nor sea level correlates significantly with fossil completeness. A generalized least squares (GLS) analysis using multiple variables agrees with this result, but reveals two variables with significant predictive value for modelling averaged diversity: sea level, and mosasaur and plesiosaur‐bearing formations (the latter is redundant with diversity). Mosasaur completeness is not driven by sea level, nor does completeness limit the mosasaur diversity signal.     

Skeletal completeness of the non‐avian theropod dinosaur fossil record

Non‐avian theropods were a highly successful clade of bipedal, predominantly carnivorous, dinosaurs. Their diversity and macroevolutionary patterns have been the subject of many studies. Changes in fossil specimen completeness through time and space can bias our understanding of macroevolution. Here, we quantify the completeness of 455 non‐avian theropod species using the skeletal completeness metric (SCM), which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for a specimen. Temporal patterns of theropod skeletal completeness show peaks in the Carnian, Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and Barremian–Aptian, and lows in the Berriasian and Hauterivian. Lagerstätten primarily drive the peaks in completeness and observed taxonomic diversity in the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and the Barremian–Aptian. Theropods have a significantly lower distribution of completeness scores than contemporary sauropodomorph dinosaurs but change in completeness through time for the two groups shows a significant correlation when conservation Lagerstätten are excluded, possibly indicating that both records are primarily driven by geology and sampling availability. Our results reveal relatively weak temporal sampling biases acting on the theropod record but relatively strong spatial and environmental biases. Asia has a significantly more complete record than any other continent, the mid northern latitudes have the highest abundance of finds, and most complete theropod skeletons come from lacustrine and aeolian environments. We suggest that these patterns result from historical research focus, modern climate dynamics, and depositional transportation energy plus association with conservation Lagerstätten, respectively. Furthermore, we find possible ecological biases acting on different theropod subgroups, but body size does not influence theropod completeness on a global scale.     

Preservational bias controls the fossil record of pterosaurs

Pterosaurs, a Mesozoic group of flying archosaurs, have become a focal point for debates pertaining to the impact of sampling biases on our reading of the fossil record, as well as the utility of sampling proxies in palaeo‐diversity reconstructions. The completeness of the pterosaur fossil specimens themselves potentially provides additional information that is not captured in existing sampling proxies, and might shed new light on the group's evolutionary history. Here we assess the quality of the pterosaur fossil record via a character completeness metric based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all known skeletons of 172 valid species, with averaged completeness values calculated for each geological stage. The fossil record of pterosaurs is observed to be strongly influenced by the occurrence and distribution of Lagerstätten. Peaks in completeness correlate with Lagerstätten deposits, and a recovered correlation between completeness and observed diversity is rendered non‐significant when Lagerstätten species are excluded. Intervals previously regarded as potential extinction events are shown to lack Lagerstätten and exhibit low completeness values: as such, the apparent low diversity in these intervals might be at least partly the result of poor fossil record quality. A positive correlation between temporal patterns in completeness of Cretaceous pterosaurs and birds further demonstrates the prominent role that Lagerstätten deposits have on the preservation of smaller bodied organisms, contrasting with a lack of correlation with the completeness of large‐bodied sauropodomorphs. However, we unexpectedly find a strong correlation between sauropodomorph and pterosaur completeness within the Triassic–Jurassic, but not the Cretaceous, potentially relating to a shared shift in environmental preference and thus preservation style through time. This study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between various taphonomic controls when correcting for sampling bias, and provides additional evidence for the prominent role of sampling on observed patterns in pterosaur macroevolution.     

Spatiotemporal sampling patterns in the 230 million year fossil record of terrestrial crocodylomorphs and their impact on diversity

The 24 extant crocodylian species are the remnants of a once much more diverse and widespread clade. Crocodylomorpha has an approximately 230 million year evolutionary history, punctuated by a series of radiations and extinctions. However, the group's fossil record is biased. Previous studies have reconstructed temporal patterns in subsampled crocodylomorph palaeobiodiversity, but have not explicitly examined variation in spatial sampling, nor the quality of this record. We compiled a dataset of all taxonomically diagnosable non‐marine crocodylomorph species (393). Based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all published fossils of each species, we calculated a completeness value for each taxon. Mean average species completeness (56%) is largely consistent within subgroups and for different body size classes, suggesting no significant biases across the crocodylomorph tree. In general, average completeness values are highest in the Mesozoic, with an overall trend of decreasing completeness through time. Many extant taxa are identified in the fossil record from very incomplete remains, but this might be because their provenance closely matches the species’ present‐day distribution, rather than through autapomorphies. Our understanding of nearly all crocodylomorph macroevolutionary ‘events’ is essentially driven by regional patterns, with no global sampling signal. Palaeotropical sampling is especially poor for most of the group's history. Spatiotemporal sampling bias impedes our understanding of several Mesozoic radiations, whereas molecular divergence times for Crocodylia are generally in close agreement with the fossil record. However, the latter might merely be fortuitous, i.e. divergences happened to occur during our ephemeral spatiotemporal sampling windows.     

QUALITY OF THE TRIASSIC–JURASSIC BIVALVE FOSSIL RECORD IN NORTHWEST EUROPE

Abstract: The quality of the Triassic–Jurassic bivalve fossil record in northwest Europe has been measured using the Simple Completeness Metric (SCM). The SCM has been applied to the fossil record of total bivalve diversity and to the records of different ecological guilds. The Westbury and Lilstock Formations record high SCM values for most ecological groups. The ‘Pre‐Planorbis Beds’ of the lower Lias Group, however, witness a precipitous decline in the completeness of most guilds and emigration of taxa due to localized marine anoxia is a likely cause. Neither variation in lithofacies, shell mineralogy, sedimentary rock outcrop area, nor sequence architecture can convincingly explain the observed patterns of completeness. Our SCM data reveal that the Early Jurassic fossil record of infaunal suspension‐feeding bivalves is significantly poorer than that of epifaunal bivalves. Any differences in the apparent Rhaetian extinction rates between these two guilds should therefore be viewed with caution. Analyses of selectivity during the Late Triassic mass extinction based on studies of global databases appear robust in light of our SCM data. Nevertheless, future investigations of the Triassic–Jurassic benthic marine ecosystem undertaken at a finer‐resolution, may need to account for the poor quality of the Early Jurassic fossil records of certain ecological guilds, such as the infaunal suspension‐feeding taxa.     

Ten more years of discovery: revisiting the quality of the sauropodomorph dinosaur fossil record

Spatiotemporal changes in fossil specimen completeness can bias our understanding of a group's evolutionary history. The quality of the sauropodomorph fossil record was assessed a decade ago, but the number of valid species has since increased by 60%, and 17% of the taxa from that study have since undergone taxonomic revision. Here, we assess how 10 years of additional research has changed our outlook on the group's fossil record. We quantified the completeness of all 307 sauropodomorph species currently considered valid using the skeletal completeness metric, which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for each taxon. Taxonomic and stratigraphic age revisions, rather than new species, are the drivers of the most significant differences between the current results and those of the previous assessment. No statistical differences appeared when we use our new dataset to generate temporal completeness curves based solely on taxa known in 2009 or 1999. We now observe a severe drop in mean completeness values across the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary that never recovers to pre-Cretaceous levels. Explaining this pattern is difficult, as we find no convincing evidence that it is related to environmental preferences or body size changes. Instead, it might result from: (1) reduction of terrestrial fossil preservation space due to sea level rise; (2) ecological specificities and relatively high diagnosability of Cretaceous species; and/or (3) increased sampling of newly explored sites with many previously unknown taxa. Revisiting patterns in this manner allows us to test the longevity of conclusions made in previous quantitative studies.     

Completeness of the fossil record and the validity of sampling proxies at outcrop level

Abstract: Most studies of the adequacy of the fossil record have been carried out at a global or continental scale, and they have used sampling proxies that generally do not incorporate all aspects of sampling (i.e. rock volume, accessibility, effort). Nonetheless, such studies have identified positive correlations between apparent diversity and various sampling proxies. The covariation of fossil and rock record signals has been interpreted as evidence for bias or for a common cause, such as sea level change, or as evidence that the signals are in some ways redundant with each other. Here, we compare a number of proxies representing the three main aspects of sampling, (1) sedimentary rock volume, (2) rock accessibility and (3) worker effort, with palaeodiversity in a geographically and stratigraphically constrained data set, the marine Lower Jurassic outcrop of the Dorset and East Devon Coast. We find that the proxies for rock volume and accessibility do not correlate well with the other sampling proxies, nor with apparent diversity, suggesting that the total amount of sedimentary rock preserved does not influence apparent diversity at a local scale, that is, the rock record at outcrop has been sampled efficiently. However, we do find some correlations between apparent diversity and proxies for worker effort. The fact that the proxies do not correlate significantly with each other suggests that none can be regarded as an all‐encompassing sampling proxy that covers all aspects of bias. Further, the presence of some correlations between sampling proxies and diversity most probably indicates the bonanza effect, as palaeontologists have preferentially sampled the richest rock units.     

The completeness of the fossil record of mesozoic birds: implications for early avian evolution

Many palaeobiological analyses have concluded that modern birds (Neornithes) radiated no earlier than the Maastrichtian, whereas molecular clock studies have argued for a much earlier origination. Here, we assess the quality of the fossil record of Mesozoic avian species, using a recently proposed character completeness metric which calculates the percentage of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for each taxon. Estimates of fossil record quality are plotted against geological time and compared to estimates of species level diversity, sea level, and depositional environment. Geographical controls on the avian fossil record are investigated by comparing the completeness scores of species in different continental regions and latitudinal bins. Avian fossil record quality varies greatly with peaks during the Tithonian-early Berriasian, Aptian, and Coniacian-Santonian, and troughs during the Albian-Turonian and the Maastrichtian. The completeness metric correlates more strongly with a 'sampling corrected' residual diversity curve of avian species than with the raw taxic diversity curve, suggesting that the abundance and diversity of birds might influence the probability of high quality specimens being preserved. There is no correlation between avian completeness and sea level, the number of fluviolacustrine localities or a recently constructed character completeness metric of sauropodomorph dinosaurs. Comparisons between the completeness of Mesozoic birds and sauropodomorphs suggest that small delicate vertebrate skeletons are more easily destroyed by taphonomic processes, but more easily preserved whole. Lagerst?tten deposits might therefore have a stronger impact on reconstructions of diversity of smaller organisms relative to more robust forms. The relatively poor quality of the avian fossil record in the Late Cretaceous combined with very patchy regional sampling means that it is possible neornithine lineages were present throughout this interval but have not yet been sampled or are difficult to identify because of the fragmentary nature of the specimens.     

HOW DO GEOLOGICAL SAMPLING BIASES AFFECT STUDIES OF MORPHOLOGICAL EVOLUTION IN DEEP TIME? A CASE STUDY OF PTEROSAUR (REPTILIA: ARCHOSAURIA) DISPARITY

A fundamental contribution of paleobiology to macroevolutionary theory has been the illumination of deep time patterns of diversification. However, recent work has suggested that taxonomic diversity counts taken from the fossil record may be strongly biased by uneven spatiotemporal sampling. Although morphological diversity (disparity) is also frequently used to examine evolutionary radiations, no empirical work has yet addressed how disparity might be affected by uneven fossil record sampling. Here, we use pterosaurs (Mesozoic flying reptiles) as an exemplar group to address this problem. We calculate multiple disparity metrics based upon a comprehensive anatomical dataset including a novel phylogenetic correction for missing data, statistically compare these metrics to four geological sampling proxies, and use multiple regression modeling to assess the importance of uneven sampling and exceptional fossil deposits (Lagerstätten). We find that range‐based disparity metrics are strongly affected by uneven fossil record sampling, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The robustness of variance‐based metrics to sample size and geological sampling suggests that they can be more confidently interpreted as reflecting true biological signals. In addition, our results highlight the problem of high levels of missing data for disparity analyses, indicating a pressing need for more theoretical and empirical work.     

Testing the effect of the rock record on diversity: a multidisciplinary approach to elucidating the generic richness of sauropodomorph dinosaurs through time

The accurate reconstruction of palaeobiodiversity patterns is central to a detailed understanding of the macroevolutionary history of a group of organisms. However, there is increasing evidence that diversity patterns observed directly from the fossil record are strongly influenced by fluctuations in the quality of our sampling of the rock record; thus, any patterns we see may reflect sampling biases, rather than genuine biological signals. Previous dinosaur diversity studies have suggested that fluctuations in sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity reflect genuine biological signals, in comparison to theropods and ornithischians whose diversity seems to be largely controlled by the rock record. Most previous diversity analyses that have attempted to take into account the effects of sampling biases have used only a single method or proxy: here we use a number of techniques in order to elucidate diversity. A global database of all known sauropodomorph body fossil occurrences (2024) was constructed. A taxic diversity curve for all valid sauropodomorph genera was extracted from this database and compared statistically with several sampling proxies (rock outcrop area and dinosaur‐bearing formations and collections), each of which captures a different aspect of fossil record sampling. Phylogenetic diversity estimates, residuals and sample‐based rarefaction (including the first attempt to capture ‘cryptic’ diversity in dinosaurs) were implemented to investigate further the effects of sampling. After ‘removal’ of biases, sauropodomorph diversity appears to be genuinely high in the Norian, Pliensbachian–Toarcian, Bathonian–Callovian and Kimmeridgian–Tithonian (with a small peak in the Aptian), whereas low diversity levels are recorded for the Oxfordian and Berriasian–Barremian, with the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary seemingly representing a real diversity trough. Observed diversity in the remaining Triassic–Jurassic stages appears to be largely driven by sampling effort. Late Cretaceous diversity is difficult to elucidate and it is possible that this interval remains relatively under‐sampled. Despite its distortion by sampling biases, much of sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity can be interpreted as a reflection of genuine biological signals, and fluctuations in sea level may account for some of these diversity patterns.     

Sea level,dinosaur diversity and sampling biases: investigating the ‘common cause’ hypothesis in the terrestrial realm

The fossil record is our primary window onto the diversification of ancient life, but there are widespread concerns that sampling biases may distort observed palaeodiversity counts. Such concerns have been reinforced by numerous studies that found correlations between measures of sampling intensity and observed diversity. However, correlation does not necessarily mean that sampling controls observed diversity: an alternative view is that both sampling and diversity may be driven by some common factor (e.g. variation in continental flooding driven by sea level). The latter is known as the ‘common cause’ hypothesis. Here, we present quantitative analyses of the relationships between dinosaur diversity, sampling of the dinosaur fossil record, and changes in continental flooding and sea level, providing new insights into terrestrial common cause. Although raw data show significant correlations between continental flooding/sea level and both observed diversity and sampling, these correlations do not survive detrending or removal of short-term autocorrelation. By contrast, the strong correlation between diversity and sampling is robust to various data transformations. Correlations between continental flooding/sea level and taxic diversity/sampling result from a shared upward trend in all data series, and short-term changes in continental flooding/sea level and diversity/sampling do not correlate. The hypothesis that global dinosaur diversity is tied to sea-level fluctuations is poorly supported, and terrestrial common cause is unsubstantiated as currently conceived. Instead, we consider variation in sampling to be the preferred null hypothesis for short-term diversity variation in the Mesozoic terrestrial realm.     

The ‘standardized search’: An improved way to conduct bird surveys

Abstract Bird surveys are among the most widely used biodiversity inventories and serve as the basis for an increasing proportion of pure and applied ecological research. It is rarely possible to conduct exhaustive censuses of all individuals present at a particular site, so stopping rules are routinely used to determine when sampling should finish. Most bird survey methods use (implicit) effort‐based stopping rules, either fixed times, fixed sampling areas (quadrats) or both, to standardize samples of different sites. If between‐site variation is high, however, a fixed sampling effort will generate samples of variable completeness with samples from smaller, less complex sites being more representative and complete than samples from larger, more complex sites. More importantly, quadrat‐based methods shift the scope of the overall study from bird occurrence in sites to bird occurrence in quadrats within sites, diminishing the impact of the research given that results cannot be extrapolated to relevant biological and management scales. Here I advocate an alternative means of conducting bird surveys, whereby the entire site is sampled and a results‐based stopping rule is used to ensure sample completeness is uniform across all sites. For example, a researcher may decide to continue sampling each site until two or fewer previously unencountered species are recorded in a 40‐min period. Samples of different sites will vary in both area and duration but will all be equivalently accurate estimates of species richness. This approach allows the avifauna of entire sites (whether territories, woodland remnants or catchments) to be sampled and compared directly, generating results and implications at the appropriate scale. In addition to yielding reliable measures of species richness, data collected this way can be used to calculate estimates of sample completeness and species incidence, two valuable metrics for ecological studies. This paper includes detailed worked examples of how to conduct a ‘standardized search’ and calculate sample completeness and species incidence estimates. I encourage further research on bird survey methods, and suggest that most current methods are insufficient, inconsistent and unreliable.     

Mesozoic marine tetrapod diversity: mass extinctions and temporal heterogeneity in geological megabiases affecting vertebrates

The fossil record is our only direct means for evaluating shifts in biodiversity through Earth''s history. However, analyses of fossil marine invertebrates have demonstrated that geological megabiases profoundly influence fossil preservation and discovery, obscuring true diversity signals. Comparable studies of vertebrate palaeodiversity patterns remain in their infancy. A new species-level dataset of Mesozoic marine tetrapod occurrences was compared with a proxy for temporal variation in the volume and facies diversity of fossiliferous rock (number of marine fossiliferous formations: FMF). A strong correlation between taxic diversity and FMF is present during the Cretaceous. Weak or no correlation of Jurassic data suggests a qualitatively different sampling regime resulting from five apparent peaks in Triassic–Jurassic diversity. These correspond to a small number of European formations that have been the subject of intensive collecting, and represent ‘Lagerstätten effects’. Consideration of sampling biases allows re-evaluation of proposed mass extinction events. Marine tetrapod diversity declined during the Carnian or Norian. However, the proposed end-Triassic extinction event cannot be recognized with confidence. Some evidence supports an extinction event near the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary, but the proposed end-Cenomanian extinction is probably an artefact of poor sampling. Marine tetrapod diversity underwent a long-term decline prior to the Cretaceous–Palaeogene extinction.     

On formation‐based sampling proxies and why they should not be used to correct the fossil record

The fossil record is a unique resource on the history of life, but it is well known to be incomplete. In a series of high‐profile papers, a residual modelling technique has been applied to correct the raw palaeodiversity signal for this bias and incompleteness, and the claim is made that the processed time series are more accurate than the raw data. We apply empirical and simulation approaches to test for correlation and directionality of any relationships between rock and fossil data. The empirical data comprise samples of the global fossil record through the Phanerozoic, and we use simulations to assess whether randomly sampled subsets of modelled data can be improved by application of the residual modelling technique. Our results show that using formation counts as a sampling proxy to correct the fossil record via residual modelling is ill founded. The supposedly independent model of sampling is information‐redundant with respect to the raw palaeodiversity data it seeks to correct, and so the outputs are generally likely to be further from the truth than the raw data. We recommend that students of palaeodiversity cease to use residual modelling estimates based on formation counts, and suggest that results from a substantial number of papers published in the past ten years require re‐evaluation.     

Marine invertebrate migrations trace climate change over 450 million years

Aim

Poleward migration is a clear response of marine organisms to current global warming but the generality and geographical uniformity of this response are unclear. Marine fossils are expected to record the range shift responses of taxa and ecosystems to past climate change. However, unequal sampling (natural and human) in time and space biases the fossil record, restricting previous studies of ancient migrations to individual taxa and events. We expect that temporal changes in the latitudinal distribution of surviving taxa will reveal range shifts to trace global climate change.

Location

Global.

Time period

Post‐Cambrian Phanerozoic aeon.

Major taxa studied

Well‐fossilized marine benthic invertebrates comprising stony corals, bivalves, gastropods, brachiopods, trilobites and calcifying sponges.

Methods

We track deviations in the latitudinal distribution of range centres of age boundary crossing taxa from the expected distribution, and compare responses across latitudes. We build deviation time series, spanning hundreds of million years, from fossil occurrences and test correlations with seawater temperature estimates derived from stable oxygen isotopes of fossils.

Results

Seawater temperature and latitudinal deviations from sampling are positively correlated over the post‐Cambrian Phanerozoic. Simulations suggest that sampling patterns are highly unlikely to drive this putative signal of range shifts. Systematically accounting for known sampling issues strengthens this correlation, so that climate is capable of explaining nearly a third of the variance in ancient latitudinal range shifts. The relationship is stronger in low latitude taxa than higher latitude taxa, and in warm ages than cool ages.

Main conclusions

Latitudinal range shifts occurred in concert with climate change throughout the post‐Cambrian Phanerozoic. Low latitude taxa show the clearest climate‐migration signal through time, corroborating predictions of their shift in a warming future.     

Palaeodiversity and formation counts: redundancy or bias?

A key question in palaeontology is whether the fossil record taken at face value is adequate to represent true patterns of diversity through time. Some methods of assessing data quality have depended on the commonly observed covariation of palaeodiversity and fossiliferous formation counts through time, based on the assumption that the count of formations containing fossils, to a greater or lesser extent, drives diversity; but what if diversity drives formations? Close study of two fossil records, early tetrapods (Devonian–Jurassic) and dinosaurs, shows how the relationship between new taxa and new fossiliferous formations varies through research time. Initially, each new find represents a new fossiliferous formation and discovery follows the ‘bonanza’ model (fossils drive formations). In unexplored parts of the world, new taxa are identified frequently in new regions/formations. Only after time, in well‐explored continents such as Europe and North America, does collecting style switch to a mix of exploration for new formations and re‐sampling of known fossiliferous formations. Data are most striking for dinosaurs, where the Triassic–Jurassic record largely comprises finds from Europe and North America, where new formation discoveries reached their half‐life in 1914. This contrasts with the Cretaceous, which is dominated by rapidly rising discoveries from regions outside Europe and North America and the formation half‐life for these ‘new’ lands is 1986, showing that 50% of new Cretaceous dinosaur‐bearing formations were identified only in the past 30 years. The relationship between dinosaur‐bearing formations and palaeodiversity then combines three signals in variable amounts, reflecting the original diversity (relative abundances of particular taxa in different formations), redundancy (new fossiliferous formations accruing because of new fossil finds) and sampling (intensity of exploration for new fossiliferous formations, and of search within already‐sampled formations). For fossil vertebrates at least, formation counts of various kinds are poor predictors of sampling, missing, for example, the bonanza samples of Lagerstätten such as the Yixian Formation in China: thousands of specimens, dozens of species, but counted as one formation. These observations suggest that formation count cannot be regarded as an unbiased metric of sampling.     

Dinosaurs and fluctuating sea levels during the mesozoic

The very different frequency of dinosaurs during the Mesozoic can be allied to the correlation between global sea level cyclicity and fossilization. This is based upon the sedimentary situation in the inner shelf, the area of predominant fossil record of dinosaurs, and sea level fluctuations. A rich fossil record is found in times of high sea level, and vice versa. Due to natural laws acting on sea level stands, the fossil record of dinosaurs and other terrestrial tetrapods is incomplete. This is causally explainable in the sequence stratigraphy. Among causes of global sea level fluctuations, the change from warm to cold times has been accorded greatest probability even in the Mesozoic. Consequently, the problem of dinosaur evolution and distribution should not be confused with the pattern of their fossil record. The latter, however, is so far nearly always used for all interpretations. The context presented here results in basic modifications.

During the phases of reduced to missing fossil record (low sea level, cold times), dinosaurs existed at least in circumequatorial regions in high diversity. Highly diverse faunas recorded exceptionally in the Upper Jurassic, Middle and Late Cretaceous, were each time the result of a long previous evolution and not the result of short term radiations at these times. Phases of sea level highstand and warm times caused an increased fossil record and poleward distribution. Cretaceous dinosaurs in paleolatitudes of 70° to 80° N and S are no proof for endothermy, but are only the effect of favorable climatic conditions at limited times. Any endothermy of the dinosaurs is not coincident with the supposedly uniformly warm equable climate of the Mesozoic, but with the opposite. Cold times did not hamper the existence of dinosaurs, but led in extreme cases (Aalenian and Valanginian) to the global lack of their fossil record. The situation at the Cretaceous‐Tertiary boundary is also explainable in this context. According to the sea level cyclicity, no extreme sea level fall and no globablly cold time were present in the critical time segment. The regression in the late Maastrichtian is found to belong to a sequence of third‐order cycles beginning in the Campanian. Every one of the cycle boundaries with regression and transgression produced apparent extinction effects which in reality are only gaps in the fossil record. After the late Maastrichtian regression the dinosaurs persisted with six lineages. The so far youngest dinosaur fauna in the Puercan (basal Paleocene) lies in a phase of sea level highstand of minor amplitude and duration with comparatively minor chances for a fossil record. The occurrences in the Puercan are governed by natural law, and, thus, dinosaurs are untied from the short term problems of the Cretaceous‐Tertiary boundary. Why dinosaurs are then missing at the next highstand, remains an open question. Anyhow, mechanisms which control fossil record, diversification and distribution, including global cold periods, do not belong to the direct causes of extinction, because identical occurrences happened many times during the Mesozoic without inducing extinction.     

Quality of data in the Manchester orthopaedic database.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the completeness and accuracy of data in a computerised clinical information system (Manchester orthopaedic database) in comparison with the data available through the Hospital Activity Analysis. DESIGN--Retrospective review of case notes, computer data, and Hospital Activity Analysis data. SETTING--Orthopaedic unit in a district general hospital in Manchester. SUBJECTS--200 random patient records distributed through the period of use of the computer system (1 October 1988 to 31 March 1990) and 121 records for random admissions between 1 April 1989 and 31 March 1990, 71 of which were included in the previous sample. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Conformity of the computer record key words and Hospital Activity Analysis codes to an ideal key word record and ideal code record drawn up by one investigator from the clinical notes; overall quality (completeness times accuracy). RESULTS--Overall completeness of the data in the orthopaedic database was 62% and the accuracy was 96%. Completeness improved after feedback to doctors on the use of key words in regular audit meetings. Completeness was higher in inpatient than outpatient records (69.9% v 53.7%, p less than 0.001) and when a new key word was required compared with missing and incorrect key words (both p less than 0.001). Completeness was lower when the key word was required of a senior registrar (p less than 0.05). Accuracy was not significantly different. The completeness of Hospital Activity Analysis data was 90.5% and accuracy 69.5%. Thus the overall data quality was similar in both systems. CONCLUSIONS--Even in a system designed for simple and efficient data capture, compliance by users was poor. Accuracy was high, suggesting that users understood the principles of data entry. Completeness of data capture can be improved by providing feedback to users on use of the system and performance. Improvements in future versions of the software should improve performance.     

Severe extinction and rapid recovery of mammals across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary,and the effects of rarity on patterns of extinction and recovery

The end‐Cretaceous mass extinction ranks among the most severe extinctions of all time; however, patterns of extinction and recovery remain incompletely understood. In particular, it is unclear how severe the extinction was, how rapid the recovery was and how sampling biases might affect our understanding of these processes. To better understand terrestrial extinction and recovery and how sampling influences these patterns, we collected data on the occurrence and abundance of fossil mammals to examine mammalian diversity across the K‐Pg boundary in North America. Our data show that the extinction was more severe and the recovery more rapid than previously thought. Extinction rates are markedly higher than previously estimated: of 59 species, four survived (93% species extinction, 86% of genera). Survival is correlated with geographic range size and abundance, with widespread, common species tending to survive. This creates a sampling artefact in which rare species are both more vulnerable to extinction and less likely to be recovered, such that the fossil record is inherently biased towards the survivors. The recovery was remarkably rapid. Within 300 000 years, local diversity recovered and regional diversity rose to twice Cretaceous levels, driven by increased endemicity; morphological disparity increased above levels observed in the Cretaceous. The speed of the recovery tends to be obscured by sampling effects; faunas show increased endemicity, such that a rapid, regional increase in diversity and disparity is not seen in geographically restricted studies. Sampling biases that operate against rare taxa appear to obscure the severity of extinction and the pace of recovery across the K‐Pg boundary, and similar biases may operate during other extinction events.