On the selection of phylogenetic eigenvectors for ecological analyses

Among the statistical methods available to control for phylogenetic autocorrelation in ecological data, those based on eigenfunction analysis of the phylogenetic distance matrix among the species are becoming increasingly important tools. Here, we evaluate a range of criteria to select eigenvectors extracted from a phylogenetic distance matrix (using phylogenetic eigenvector regression, PVR) that can be used to measure the level of phylogenetic signal in ecological data and to study correlated evolution. We used a principal coordinate analysis to represent the phylogenetic relationships among 209 species of Carnivora by a series of eigenvectors, which were then used to model log‐transformed body size. We first conducted a series of PVRs in which we increased the number of eigenvectors from 1 to 70, following the sequence of their associated eigenvalues. Second, we also investigated three non‐sequential approaches based on the selection of 1) eigenvectors significantly correlated with body size, 2) eigenvectors selected by a standard stepwise algorithm, and 3) the combination of eigenvectors that minimizes the residual phylogenetic autocorrelation. We mapped the mean specific component of body size to evaluate how these selection criteria affect the interpretation of non‐phylogenetic signal in Bergmann's rule. For comparison, the same patterns were analyzed using autoregressive model (ARM) and phylogenetic generalized least‐squares (PGLS). Despite the robustness of PVR to the specific approaches used to select eigenvectors, using a relatively small number of eigenvectors may be insufficient to control phylogenetic autocorrelation, leading to flawed conclusions about patterns and processes. The method that minimizes residual autocorrelation seems to be the best choice according to different criteria. Thus, our analyses show that, when the best criterion is used to control phylogenetic structure, PVR can be a valuable tool for testing hypotheses related to heritability at the species level, phylogenetic niche conservatism and correlated evolution between ecological traits.     

Defensive spines are associated with large geographic range but not diversification in spiny ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Polyrhachis)

Several prominent evolutionary theories propose mechanisms whereby the evolution of a defensive trait or suite of traits causes significant shifts in species diversification rate and niche evolution. We investigate the role of cuticular spines, a highly variable morphological defensive trait in the hyperdiverse ant genus Polyrhachis, on species diversification and geographic range size. Informed by key innovation theory and the escape-and-radiate hypothesis, we predicted that clades with longer spines would exhibit elevated rates of diversification and larger range sizes compared to clades with shorter spines. To address these predictions, we estimated phylogenetic relationships with a phylogenomic approach utilizing ultraconserved elements and compiled morphological and biogeographic trait databases. In contrast to the first prediction, we found no association between diversification rate and any trait (spine length, body size and range size), with the sole exception of a positive association between range size and diversification in one of three trait-based diversification analyses. However, we recovered a positive phylogenetic correlation between spine length and geographic range size, suggesting that spines promote expanded geographic range. Notably, these results were consistent across analyses using different phylogenetic inference approaches and spine trait measurement schemes. This study provides a rare investigation of the role of a defensive trait on geographic range size, and ultimately supports the hypothesis that defensive spines are a factor in increased range size in Polyrhachis ants. Furthermore, the lack of support for an association between spines and diversification, which contrasts with previous work demonstrating a positive association between spines and diversification rate, is intriguing and warrants further study.     

Interspecific geographic range size–body size relationship and the diversification dynamics of Neotropical furnariid birds

Among the earliest macroecological patterns documented, is the range and body size relationship, characterized by a minimum geographic range size imposed by the species’ body size. This boundary for the geographic range size increases linearly with body size and has been proposed to have implications in lineages evolution and conservation. Nevertheless, the macroevolutionary processes involved in the origin of this boundary and its consequences on lineage diversification have been poorly explored. We evaluate the macroevolutionary consequences of the difference (hereafter the distance) between the observed and the minimum range sizes required by the species’ body size, to untangle its role on the diversification of a Neotropical species‐rich bird clade using trait‐dependent diversification models. We show that speciation rate is a positive hump‐shaped function of the distance to the lower boundary. The species with highest and lowest distances to minimum range size had lower speciation rates, while species close to medium distances values had the highest speciation rates. Further, our results suggest that the distance to the minimum range size is a macroevolutionary constraint that affects the diversification process responsible for the origin of this macroecological pattern in a more complex way than previously envisioned.     

Integrating phylogeny,environment and space to explore variation in macroecological traits of Viperidae and Elapidae (Squamata: Serpentes)

We used eigenvector mapping in space and phylogeny to investigate the relationships among space, phylogeny and environment on body size and range size variation across two groups of venomous snakes – Viperidae and Elapidae – from the New World. Data on species geographic range sizes, maximum body sizes and phylogenetic relationships were compiled from the available literature. The distributional data were also used to calculate the latitudinal and longitudinal midpoint and the environmental centroids for each species. The eigenvectors extracted from the pair wise spatial and phylogenetic distance matrices were integrated with environmental variables into a method of variation partitioning where the variation in each trait was quantitatively attributed to ‘pure’ and/or shared effects of phylogeny, environment and space. Our results showed that variation in body size was predominantly determined by phylogeny in both groups of snakes. For Viperidae, we found that pure ‘effects’ of phylogeny were the strongest, indicating that most of the body size evolution that was phylogenetically determined in this group occurred independently of environment and geographical proximity. Regarding range sizes, pure phylogenetic influences were very low in both groups, whereas the largest single fraction of explained variation corresponded to overlapped influences of the three sets of predictors, especially for Elapidae. Along with this, we found evidence that niche conservatism is an important processes underlying variation in body size and range size in both groups of snakes.     

How species longevity, intraspecific morphological variation, and geographic range size are related: a comparison using late Cambrian trilobites

Phenotypic variation is fundamental to evolutionary change. Variation not only evinces the connectivity of populations but it is also associated with the adaptability and evolvability of taxa. Despite the potential importance of morphological variation in structuring evolutionary patterns, little is known about how relative differences in intraspecific morphological variation and its geographic structure are linked to differences in species longevity. This study offers a novel combination of analyses that reveal the quantitative relationships among intraspecific variation, geographic range size and duration in the fossil record using late Cambrian trilobites. Results show that geographic range size and duration are positively correlated. Surprisingly, longer lived species tend to have less intraspecific variation. Phylogenetic effects were also explored and found not to determine the association between these variables. However, the distribution of geographic range sizes shows strong phylogenetic signal. In light of previous work, one possible explanation for these results is that species with shorter durations have comparatively higher rates of morphological evolution, reflected in higher phenotypic variation overall.     

Body Size and Geographic Range Do Not Explain Long Term Variation in Fish Populations: A Bayesian Phylogenetic Approach to Testing Assembly Processes in Stream Fish Assemblages

We combine evolutionary biology and community ecology to test whether two species traits, body size and geographic range, explain long term variation in local scale freshwater stream fish assemblages. Body size and geographic range are expected to influence several aspects of fish ecology, via relationships with niche breadth, dispersal, and abundance. These traits are expected to scale inversely with niche breadth or current abundance, and to scale directly with dispersal potential. However, their utility to explain long term temporal patterns in local scale abundance is not known. Comparative methods employing an existing molecular phylogeny were used to incorporate evolutionary relatedness in a test for covariation of body size and geographic range with long term (1983 – 2010) local scale population variation of fishes in West Fork White River (Indiana, USA). The Bayesian model incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty and correlated predictors indicated that neither body size nor geographic range explained significant variation in population fluctuations over a 28 year period. Phylogenetic signal data indicated that body size and geographic range were less similar among taxa than expected if trait evolution followed a purely random walk. We interpret this as evidence that local scale population variation may be influenced less by species-level traits such as body size or geographic range, and instead may be influenced more strongly by a taxon’s local scale habitat and biotic assemblages.     

Deep phylogeny,net primary productivity,and global body size gradient in birds

Body size is evolutionarily constrained, but the influence of phylogenetic relationships on global body size (i.e. body mass) gradients is unexplored. We quantify and map the family‐level phylogenetic and non‐phylogenetic structure of the global gradient of birds, evaluating the extent to which it is influenced by phylogenetic inertia in contrast to heat conservation, resource availability, starvation resistance, niche conservatism, or interspecific competition. Phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) partitioned the global bird body size gradient into phylogenetically autocorrelated (PA) and phylogenetically independent (PI) components. Simple, piecewise, and partial regressions were used to investigate associations between the PA and PI components of body size and environmental correlates, and to quantify independent and overlapping contributions of environment, phylogenetic autocorrelation, and species richness to the body size gradient. Two‐thirds of the geographic variation in bird body size can be explained by phylogenetic relationships at the family level. The global variation in body size, independent of phylogenetic relationships, is most strongly associated with net primary productivity, which is consistent with ‘starvation resistance’. However, the New and Old worlds have very different patterns. We found no independent association of species richness with body size. Despite major unresolved regional differences, deep phylogenetic relationships, heat conservation, and starvation resistance probably operate in concert in shaping the global bird body size gradient in different parts of the world. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ?? , ??–??.     

Phylogenetic perspectives on reef fish functional traits

Functional traits have been fundamental to the evolution and diversification of entire fish lineages on coral reefs. Yet their relationship with the processes promoting speciation, extinction and the filtering of local species pools remains unclear. We review the current literature exploring the evolution of diet, body size, water column use and geographic range size in reef‐associated fishes. Using published and new data, we mapped functional traits on to published phylogenetic trees to uncover evolutionary patterns that have led to the current functional diversity of fishes on coral reefs. When examining reconstructed patterns for diet and feeding mode, we found examples of independent transitions to planktivory across different reef fish families. Such transitions and associated morphological alterations may represent cases in which ecological opportunity for the exploitation of different resources drives speciation and adaptation. In terms of body size, reconstructions showed that both large and small sizes appear multiple times within clades of mid‐sized fishes and that extreme body sizes have arisen mostly in the last 10 million years (Myr). The reconstruction of range size revealed many cases of disparate range sizes among sister species. Such range size disparity highlights potential vicariant processes through isolation in peripheral locations. When accounting for peripheral speciation processes in sister pairs, we found a significant relationship between labrid range size and lineage age. The diversity and evolution of traits within lineages is influenced by trait–environment interactions as well as by species and trait–trait interactions, where the presence of a given trait may trigger the development of related traits or behaviours. Our effort to assess the evolution of functional diversity across reef fish clades adds to the burgeoning research focusing on the evolutionary and ecological roles of functional traits. We argue that the combination of a phylogenetic and a functional approach will improve the understanding of the mechanisms of species assembly in extraordinarily rich coral reef communities.     

Modeling body size evolution in Felidae under alternative phylogenetic hypotheses

The use of phylogenetic comparative methods in ecological research has advanced during the last twenty years, mainly due to accurate phylogenetic reconstructions based on molecular data and computational and statistical advances. We used phylogenetic correlograms and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) to model body size evolution in 35 worldwide Felidae (Mammalia, Carnivora) species using two alternative phylogenies and published body size data. The purpose was not to contrast the phylogenetic hypotheses but to evaluate how analyses of body size evolution patterns can be affected by the phylogeny used for comparative analyses (CA). Both phylogenies produced a strong phylogenetic pattern, with closely related species having similar body sizes and the similarity decreasing with increasing distances in time. The PVR explained 65% to 67% of body size variation and all Moran's I values for the PVR residuals were non-significant, indicating that both these models explained phylogenetic structures in trait variation. Even though our results did not suggest that any phylogeny can be used for CA with the same power, or that "good" phylogenies are unnecessary for the correct interpretation of the evolutionary dynamics of ecological, biogeographical, physiological or behavioral patterns, it does suggest that developments in CA can, and indeed should, proceed without waiting for perfect and fully resolved phylogenies.     

Interspecific patterns of species richness, geographic range size, and body size among New World venomous snakes

Many higher taxa exhibit latitudinal gradients in species richness, geographic range size, and body size. However, these variables are often interdependent, such that examinations of univariate or bivariate patterns alone may be misleading. Therefore, I examined latitudinal gradients in, and relationships between, species richness, geographic range size, and body size among 144 species of New World venomous snakes [families Elapidae (coral snakes) and Viperidae (pitvipers)]. Both lineages are monophyletic, collectively span 99° of latitude, and are extremely variable in body size and geographic range sizes. Coral snakes exhibit highest species richness near the equator, while pitviper species richness peaks in Central America. Species – range size distributions were strongly right-skewed for both families. There was little support for Bergmann's rule or Rapoport's rule for snakes of either family, as neither body size nor range size increased significantly with latitude. However, range area and median range latitude were positively correlated above 15° N, indicating a possible "Rapoport effect" at high northern latitudes. Geographic range size was positively associated with body size. Available continental area strongly influenced range size. Comparative (phylogenetically-based) analyses revealed that shared history is a poor predictor of range size variation within clades. Among vipers, trends in geographic range sizes may have been structured more by historical biogeography than by macroecological biotic factors.     

When the method for mapping species matters: defining priority areas for conservation of African freshwater turtles

Aim Defining priority areas for conservation is essential to minimize biodiversity loss, but the adoption of different methods for describing species distributions influences the outcomes. In order to provide a robust basis for the conservation of freshwater turtles in Africa, we compared the effect that different species‐mapping approaches had on derived patterns of species richness, species vulnerability and protected‐area representativeness. Location Africa. Methods We adopted three different approaches with increasing complexity for generating species distribution maps. The first approach was based on the geographic intersection of species records and grid squares; the second on the union of local convex polygons; and the third on inductive distribution modelling techniques. We used distribution maps, generated using these three approaches, to determine conservation priorities based on geographic patterns of species richness and vulnerability, as well as for conducting gap and irreplaceability analyses. Results We obtained markedly different distribution maps using the three methods, which in turn caused differences in conservation priorities. The grid‐square approach underestimated range sizes and species richness, while the polygon approach overestimated these attributes. The distribution modelling approach provided the most realistic outcome in terms of diversity patterns, by minimizing both commission and omission errors. An integrated map of conservation priority – derived by combining individual measures of priority based on the distribution modelling approach – identified the Gulf of Guinea coast and the Albertine Rift as major priority areas. Main conclusions Each species‐mapping approach has both advantages and disadvantages. The choice of the most appropriate approach in any given situation depends on the availability of locality records and on the relative importance of mitigating omission and commission errors. Our findings suggest that in most circumstances, the use of distribution modelling has many advantages relative to the other approaches. The priority areas identified in this study should be considered for targeting efforts to conserve Africa freshwater turtles in the coming years.     

Phylogenetic comparative methods and the geographic range size – body size relationship in new world terrestrial carnivora

Most recent papers avoid describing macroecological relationships and interpreting then without a previous control of non-independence in data caused by phylogenetic patterns in data. In this paper, we analyzed the geographic range size – body size relationship for 70 species of New World terrestrial Carnivora (fissipeds) using various phylogenetic comparative methods and simulation procedures to assess their statistical performance. Autocorrelation analyses suggested a strong phylogenetic pattern for body size, but not for geographic range size. The correlation between the two traits was estimated using standard Pearson correlation across species (TIPS) and four different comparative methods: Felsenstein's independent contrasts (PIC), autoregressive method (ARM), phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) and phylogenetic generalized least-squares (PGLS). The correlation between the two variables was significant for all methods, except PIC, in such a way that ecological mechanisms (i.e., minimum viable population or environmental heterogeneity- physiological homeostasis), could be valid explanations for the relationship. Simulations using different O-U processes for each trait were run in order to estimate true Type I errors of each method. Type I errors at 5% were similar for all phylogenetic methods (always lower than 8%), but equal to 13.1% for TIPS. PIC usually performs better than all other methods under Brownian motion evolution, but not in this case using a more complex combination of evolutionary models. So, recent claims that using independent contrasts in ecological research can be too conservative are correct but, on the other hand, using simple across-species correlation is too liberal even under the more complex evolutionary models exhibited by the traits analyzed here.     

Mistletoe species richness patterns are influenced more by host geographic range than nitrogen content

Mistletoes are hemiparasites that access water and nutrients from their hosts. Previous studies have suggested that host genera with high nitrogen are parasitized by more mistletoe species but these studies failed to take into account phylogenetic relationships among host genera. Our main question was whether more mistletoe species parasitize host genera with high nitrogen content when phylogenetic relationships were controlled. We also asked whether patterns in mistletoe parasitism were related to host geographic range size, host fruit type and host spinescence. Overall, we found no difference between conventional and phylogenetically controlled analyses. We also found no evidence for higher mistletoe species richness on host genera with high nitrogen, fleshy fruits or spinescence. However, similar to findings for animal parasites, we found that host genera with large geographic range had higher mistletoe species richness. This is likely because a greater number of mistletoe species will encounter hosts that have a greater geographic distribution. Mistletoe studies frequently assume that nitrogen status drives patterns in mistletoe parasitism but our study suggests that macroecological patterns in mistletoe assemblages are primarily determined by host geographic range.     

Richness patterns, species distributions and the principle of extreme deconstruction

Aim To analyse the global patterns in species richness of Viperidae snakes through the deconstruction of richness into sets of species according to their distribution models, range size, body size and phylogenetic structure, and to test if environmental drivers explaining the geographical ranges of species are similar to those explaining richness patterns, something we called the extreme deconstruction principle. Location Global. Methods We generated a global dataset of 228 terrestrial viperid snakes, which included geographical ranges (mapped at 1° resolution, for a grid with 7331 cells world‐wide), body sizes and phylogenetic relationships among species. We used logistic regression (generalized linear model; GLM) to model species geographical ranges with five environmental predictors. Sets of species richness were also generated for large and small‐bodied species, for basal and derived species and for four classes of geographical range sizes. Richness patterns were also modelled against the five environmental variables through standard ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regressions. These subsets are replications to test if environmental factors driving species geographical ranges can be directly associated with those explaining richness patterns. Results Around 48% of the total variance in viperid richness was explained by the environmental model, but richness sets revealed different patterns across the world. The similarity between OLS coefficients and the primacy of variables across species geographical range GLMs was equal to 0.645 when analysing all viperid snakes. Thus, in general, when an environmental predictor it is important to model species geographical ranges, this predictor is also important when modelling richness, so that the extreme deconstruction principle holds. However, replicating this correlation using subsets of species within different categories in body size, range size and phylogenetic structure gave more variable results, with correlations between GLM and OLS coefficients varying from –0.46 up to 0.83. Despite this, there is a relatively high correspondence (r = 0.73) between the similarity of GLM‐OLS coefficients and R² values of richness models, indicating that when richness is well explained by the environment, the relative importance of environmental drivers is similar in the richness OLS and its corresponding set of GLMs. Main conclusions The deconstruction of species richness based on macroecological traits revealed that, at least for range size and phylogenetic level, the causes underlying patterns in viperid richness differ for the various sets of species. On the other hand, our analyses of extreme deconstruction using GLM for species geographical range support the idea that, if environmental drivers determine the geographical distribution of species by establishing niche boundaries, it is expected, at least in theory, that the overlap among ranges (i.e. richness) will reveal similar effects of these environmental drivers. Richness patterns may be indeed viewed as macroecological consequences of population‐level processes acting on species geographical ranges.     

Patterns in the geographic ranges of the world's woodpeckers

We used data on the world's woodpeckers to test for patterns in the geographic distributions of a single group of closely related species. The frequency distribution of woodpecker geographic range sizes is approximately lognormal. Most variation in range sizes is explained by differences between species within genera; that is, range size seems to be an evolutionarily labile trait. The largest woodpecker ranges are found in Eurasia, both when absolute differences are compared and when range size is measured as a proportion of estimated available habitat. Notably, there is a negative relationship between the mean range sizes attained by species in a genus or tribe in South America and the mean ranges attained by species in the same tribe or genus in North America. Large-bodied species tend to be more widely distributed and to live at higher latitudes, but both tendencies disappear if the taxonomic relatedness of species is controlled for. Species living at high latitudes also tend to be more widely distributed. This relationship seems largely due to the effect of North American woodpeckers, which show it even when the taxonomic relatedness of species is controlled. Small continents generally have more woodpecker species than do large ones. Woodpecker geographic range sizes are smaller the more woodpecker species inhabit an area. Species show less overlap in their geographic ranges with species of similar than with species of dissimilar body size. The implications of these results for our understanding of patterns in geographic range sizes are discussed.     

The population ecology of rare species

There is no general theory of rarity, although one is sorely needed both to understand population dynamics and to determine conservation priorities. Here we suggest some of the strands that might be woven into such a theory. They include relationships between local abundance, geographic range size and body size of species, and the determinants of minimum viable population sizes. In each of these areas much can still be learnt from the classical 'compare and contrast' approach using assemblages of species from a variety of taxa. Freshwater fish have contributed relatively little to the broad ecological literature in this respect. We perform some tentative analyses for this group of species, and speculate on how they might fit into our current understanding of rarity.     

Evolutionary patterns in the geographic range size of Atlantic Forest plants

Species’ geographic range size is arguably the single most important predictor of vulnerability to extinction and a key metric in ecology. Despite this, patterns of specific variation in range size and their underlying reasons are still poorly understood. For example, hypotheses on how evolutionary history affects range size have scarcely been tested. To address these questions, we focused on Brazil's Atlantic Forest flora, one of the most species-rich in the world, relatively well-known and highly threatened. We investigated whether and how lineages’ diversification rate, number of species and age are associated with species’ geographic range size. We estimated the extent of occurrence and area of occupancy of each of 13 283 plant species native to the Atlantic Forest region based on over 500 000 unique records. We used phylogenetic least squares and logistic regressions to analyze how the predictors affect the geographic range size. On average, the higher the diversification rate and number of species in the lineage, the smaller the species range size and the higher the proportion of species with vulnerably small range size. Lineage age showed no clear effect on average range size. The results support our expectations that dynamics of diversification and taxonomic richness considerably affect the species range size. Finally, this work reveals poorly known patterns of range size variation and some of the mechanisms driving variation in range size and vulnerability to extinction.     

Using biological traits to explain ladybird distribution patterns

Aim  Determining to what extent differing distribution patterns are governed by species’ life‐history and resource‐use traits may lead to an improved understanding of the impacts of environmental change on biodiversity. We investigated the extent to which traits can explain distribution patterns in the ladybird fauna (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) of Great Britain. Location  The British mainland and inshore islands (Anglesey, the Isle of Wight and the Inner Hebrides). Methods  The distributions of 26 ladybird species resident in Britain were characterized in terms of their range size (from 2661 10‐km grid squares across Britain) and proportional range fill (at 10‐ and 50‐km scales). These were assessed relative to five traits (body length, elytral colour pattern polymorphism, voltinism, habitat specificity and diet breadth). The role of phylogenetic autocorrelation was examined by comparing the results of phylogenetic and generalized least‐squares regressions. Results  Diet breadth was the only trait correlated with range size: species with broad diets had larger range sizes than dietary specialists. Range fill was sensitive to recording intensity (a per‐species measure of the mean number of records across occupied squares); models including both recording intensity and range size provided more explanatory power than models incorporating ecological traits alone. Main conclusions  Habitat specificity is often invoked to explain the distribution patterns of species, but here we found diet breadth to be the only ecological correlate of both range fill and range size. This highlights the importance of understanding predator–prey interactions when attempting to explain the distribution patterns of predatory species. Our results suggest that the diet breadth of predatory species is a better correlate of range size and fill than other measures, such as habitat specificity.     

Range size heritability in Carnivora is driven by geographic constraints

Range size heritability refers to an intriguing pattern where closely related species occupy geographic ranges of similar extent. Its existence may indicate selection on traits emergent only at the species level, with interesting consequences for evolutionary processes. We explore whether range size heritability may be attributable to the fact that range size is largely driven by the size of geographic domains (i.e., continents, biomes, areas given by species' climatic tolerance) that tend to be similar in phylogenetically related species. Using a well-resolved phylogeny of Carnivora, we show that range sizes are indeed constrained by geographic domains and that the phylogenetic signal in range sizes diminishes if the domain sizes are accounted for. Moreover, more detailed delimitation of species' geographic domain leads to a weaker signal in range size heritability, indicating the importance of definition of the null model against which the pattern is tested. Our findings do not reject the hypothesis of range size heritability but rather unravel its underlying mechanisms. Additional analyses imply that evolutionary conservatism in niche breadth delimits the species' geographic domain, which in turn shapes the species' range size. Range size heritability patterns thus emerge as a consequence of this interplay between evolutionary and geographic constraints.     

Can population genetic structure be predicted from life-history traits?

Population genetic structure is a key parameter in evolutionary biology. Earlier comparative studies have shown that genetic structure depends on species ecological attributes and life-history traits, but species phylogenetic relatedness had not been accounted for. Here we reevaluate the relationships between genetic structure and species traits in seed plants. Each species is characterized by a set of life-history and ecological features as well as by its geographic range size, its heterozygote deficit, and its genetic structure at nuclear and organelle markers to distinguish between pollen- and seed-mediated gene flow. We use both a conventional regression approach and a method that controls for phylogenetic relationships. Once phylogenetic conservatism and covariation among traits are taken into account, genetic structure is shown to be related with only a few synthetic traits, such as mating system for nuclear markers and seed dispersal mode or geographic range size for organelle markers. Along with other studies on invasiveness or rarity, our work illustrates the fact that predicting the fate of species across a broad taxonomic assemblage on the basis of simple traits is rarely possible, a testimony of the highly contingent nature of evolution.