城市土壤碳循环与碳固持研究综述

城市化过程带来的土地利用变化和环境污染是全球变化的重要方面,城市为人们了解人类与自然复合生态系统对全球变化的影响及其对全球变化的响应过程提供一个独特的"天然实验室"。陆地生态系统碳循环是全球变化研究的热点领域之一,然而,人们对城市在全球碳循环中的作用和影响知之甚少,城市土壤碳循环研究处于起步阶段。介绍了城市土壤的主要特性和碳循环特征,指出强烈的人为作用是其最突出的特点;综述了城市土壤碳库、碳通量和碳固持研究方面取得的进展;探讨了城市化过程中土地利用变化、土壤中生物及土壤管护措施、城市小气候、大气污染沉降和土壤污染等对土壤碳循环的影响;提出未来城市碳循环研究需要开展长期系统监测、深化城市土壤碳循环机制研究、创新研究范式和研究方法、并将研究成果与城市景观规划与设计相结合,提升城市土壤碳管理能力。     

Multiple models and experiments underscore large uncertainty in soil carbon dynamics

Soils contain more carbon than plants or the atmosphere, and sensitivities of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to changing climate and plant productivity are a major uncertainty in global carbon cycle projections. Despite a consensus that microbial degradation and mineral stabilization processes control SOC cycling, no systematic synthesis of long-term warming and litter addition experiments has been used to test process-based microbe-mineral SOC models. We explored SOC responses to warming and increased carbon inputs using a synthesis of 147 field manipulation experiments and five SOC models with different representations of microbial and mineral processes. Model projections diverged but encompassed a similar range of variability as the experimental results. Experimental measurements were insufficient to eliminate or validate individual model outcomes. While all models projected that CO₂ efflux would increase and SOC stocks would decline under warming, nearly one-third of experiments observed decreases in CO₂ flux and nearly half of experiments observed increases in SOC stocks under warming. Long-term measurements of C inputs to soil and their changes under warming are needed to reconcile modeled and observed patterns. Measurements separating the responses of mineral-protected and unprotected SOC fractions in manipulation experiments are needed to address key uncertainties in microbial degradation and mineral stabilization mechanisms. Integrating models with experimental design will allow targeting of these uncertainties and help to reconcile divergence among models to produce more confident projections of SOC responses to global changes.     

Tree planting in organic soils does not result in net carbon sequestration on decadal timescales

Tree planting is increasingly being proposed as a strategy to combat climate change through carbon (C) sequestration in tree biomass. However, total ecosystem C storage that includes soil organic C (SOC) must be considered to determine whether planting trees for climate change mitigation results in increased C storage. We show that planting two native tree species (Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris), of widespread Eurasian distribution, onto heather (Calluna vulgaris) moorland with podzolic and peaty podzolic soils in Scotland, did not lead to an increase in net ecosystem C stock 12 or 39 years after planting. Plots with trees had greater soil respiration and lower SOC in organic soil horizons than heather control plots. The decline in SOC cancelled out the increment in C stocks in tree biomass on decadal timescales. At all four experimental sites sampled, there was no net gain in ecosystem C stocks 12–39 years after afforestation—indeed we found a net ecosystem C loss in one of four sites with deciduous B. pubescens stands; no net gain in ecosystem C at three sites planted with B. pubescens; and no net gain at additional stands of P. sylvestris. We hypothesize that altered mycorrhizal communities and autotrophic C inputs have led to positive ‘priming’ of soil organic matter, resulting in SOC loss, constraining the benefits of tree planting for ecosystem C sequestration. The results are of direct relevance to current policies, which promote tree planting on the assumption that this will increase net ecosystem C storage and contribute to climate change mitigation. Ecosystem‐level biogeochemistry and C fluxes must be better quantified and understood before we can be assured that large‐scale tree planting in regions with considerable pre‐existing SOC stocks will have the intended policy and climate change mitigation outcomes.     

Conversion from forests to pastures in the Colombian Amazon leads to contrasting soil carbon dynamics depending on land management practices

Strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing deforestation and forest degradation (e.g. REDD+) require country‐ or region‐specific information on temporal changes in forest carbon (C) pools to develop accurate emission factors. The soil C pool is one of the most important C reservoirs, but is rarely included in national forest reference emission levels due to a lack of data. Here, we present the soil organic C (SOC) dynamics along 20 years of forest‐to‐pasture conversion in two subregions with different management practices during pasture establishment in the Colombian Amazon: high‐grazing intensity (HG) and low‐grazing intensity (LG) subregions. We determined the pattern of SOC change resulting from the conversion from forest (C3 plants) to pasture (C4 plants) by analysing total SOC stocks and the natural abundance of the stable isotopes ¹³C along two 20‐year chronosequences identified in each subregion. We also analysed soil N stocks and the natural abundance of ¹⁵N during pasture establishment. In general, total SOC stocks at 30 cm depth in the forest were similar for both subregions, with an average of 47.1 ± 1.8 Mg C ha^?1 in HG and 48.7 ± 3.1 Mg C ha^?1 in LG. However, 20 years after forest‐to‐pasture conversion SOC in HG decreased by 20%, whereas in LG SOC increased by 41%. This net SOC decrease in HG was due to a larger reduction in C3‐derived input and to a comparatively smaller increase in C4‐derived C input. In LG both C3‐ and C4‐derived C input increased along the chronosequence. N stocks were generally similar in both subregions and soil N stock changes during pasture establishment were correlated with SOC changes. These results emphasize the importance of management practices involving low‐grazing intensity in cattle activities to preserve SOC stocks and to reduce C emissions after land‐cover change from forest to pasture in the Colombian Amazon.     

Matrix approach to land carbon cycle modeling: A case study with the Community Land Model

The terrestrial carbon (C) cycle has been commonly represented by a series of C balance equations to track C influxes into and effluxes out of individual pools in earth system models (ESMs). This representation matches our understanding of C cycle processes well but makes it difficult to track model behaviors. It is also computationally expensive, limiting the ability to conduct comprehensive parametric sensitivity analyses. To overcome these challenges, we have developed a matrix approach, which reorganizes the C balance equations in the original ESM into one matrix equation without changing any modeled C cycle processes and mechanisms. We applied the matrix approach to the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with vertically‐resolved biogeochemistry. The matrix equation exactly reproduces litter and soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics of the standard CLM4.5 across different spatial‐temporal scales. The matrix approach enables effective diagnosis of system properties such as C residence time and attribution of global change impacts to relevant processes. We illustrated, for example, the impacts of CO₂ fertilization on litter and SOC dynamics can be easily decomposed into the relative contributions from C input, allocation of external C into different C pools, nitrogen regulation, altered soil environmental conditions, and vertical mixing along the soil profile. In addition, the matrix tool can accelerate model spin‐up, permit thorough parametric sensitivity tests, enable pool‐based data assimilation, and facilitate tracking and benchmarking of model behaviors. Overall, the matrix approach can make a broad range of future modeling activities more efficient and effective.     

Response of soil carbon dioxide fluxes,soil organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon to biochar amendment: a meta‐analysis

Biochar as a carbon‐rich coproduct of pyrolyzing biomass, its amendment has been advocated as a potential strategy to soil carbon (C) sequestration. Updated data derived from 50 papers with 395 paired observations were reviewed using meta‐analysis procedures to examine responses of soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes, soil organic C (SOC), and soil microbial biomass C (MBC) contents to biochar amendment. When averaged across all studies, biochar amendment had no significant effect on soil CO₂ fluxes, but it significantly enhanced SOC content by 40% and MBC content by 18%. A positive response of soil CO₂ fluxes to biochar amendment was found in rice paddies, laboratory incubation studies, soils without vegetation, and unfertilized soils. Biochar amendment significantly increased soil MBC content in field studies, N‐fertilized soils, and soils with vegetation. Enhancement of SOC content following biochar amendment was the greatest in rice paddies among different land‐use types. Responses of soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC to biochar amendment varied with soil texture and pH. The use of biochar in combination with synthetic N fertilizer and waste compost fertilizer led to the greatest increases in soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC content, respectively. Both soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC responses to biochar amendment decreased with biochar application rate, pyrolysis temperature, or C/N ratio of biochar, while each increased SOC content enhancement. Among different biochar feedstock sources, positive responses of soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC were the highest for manure and crop residue feedstock sources, respectively. Soil CO₂ flux responses to biochar amendment decreased with pH of biochar, while biochars with pH of 8.1–9.0 had the greatest enhancement of SOC and MBC contents. Therefore, soil properties, land‐use type, agricultural practice, and biochar characteristics should be taken into account to assess the practical potential of biochar for mitigating climate change.     

Combining meteorology, eddy fluxes, isotope measurements, and modeling to understand environmental controls of carbon isotope discrimination at the canopy scale

Estimates of terrestrial carbon isotope discrimination are useful to quantify the terrestrial carbon sink. Carbon isotope discrimination by terrestrial ecosystems may vary on seasonal and interannual time frames, because it is affected by processes (e.g. photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and respiration) that respond to variable environmental conditions (e.g. air humidity, temperature, light). In this study, we report simulations of the temporal variability of canopy‐scale C₃ photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination obtained with an ecophysiologically based model (ISOLSM) designed for inclusion in global models. ISOLSM was driven by half‐hourly meteorology, and parameterized with eddy covariance measurements of carbon and energy fluxes and foliar carbon isotope ratios from a pine forest in Metolius (OR). Comparing simulated carbon and energy fluxes with observations provided a range of parameter values that optimized the simulated fluxes. We found that the sensitivity of photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination to the slope of the stomatal conductance equation (m, Ball–Berry constant) provided an additional constraint to the model, reducing the wide parameter space obtained from the fluxes alone. We selected values of m that resulted in similar simulated long‐term discrimination as foliar isotope ratios measured at the site. The model was tested with ¹³C measurements of ecosystem (δ_R) and foliar (δ_f) respiration. The daily variability of simulated ¹³C values of assimilated carbon (δ_A) was similar to that of observed δ_f, and higher than that of observed and simulated δ_R. We also found similar relationships between environmental factors (i.e. vapor pressure deficit) and simulated δ_R as measured in ecosystem surveys of δ_R. Therefore, ISOLSM reasonably simulated the short‐term variability of δ_A controlled by atmospheric conditions at the canopy scale, which can be useful to estimate the variability of terrestrial isotope discrimination. Our study also shows that including the capacity to simulate carbon isotope discrimination, together with simple ecosystem isotope measurements, can provide a useful constraint to land surface and carbon balance models.     

Soil organic carbon stocks in Laos: spatial variations and controlling factors

Surface soils, which contain the largest pool of terrestrial organic carbon (C), may be able to sequester atmospheric C and thus mitigate climate change. However, this remains controversial, largely due to insufficient data and knowledge gaps in respect of organic C contents and stocks in soils and the main factors of their control. Up to now and despite numerous evaluations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks worldwide, the sloping lands of southeast Asia, one of the most biogeochemically active regions of the world, remain uninvestigated. Our main objective was to quantify SOC stocks and to evaluate the impact of various environmental factors. We, therefore, selected Laos with 230 566 km² of mostly forested steep slopes, and where cultivation is still mainly traditional, i.e. a system of shifting cultivation without fertilization or mechanical tillage. Analytical data from 3471 soil profiles demonstrated that the top 1 m of soil depth holds an estimated 4.64 billion tons of SOC, 65% of which is in the first 0.3 m. SOC stocks to 0.3 m exhibit a high coefficient of variation (CV=62%) with values from 1.8 to 771 Mg C ha^?1 and a mean at 129 Mg C ha^?1. Furthermore, these stocks are significantly (at P<0.05 level) affected by land use as shown by principal components analysis and t‐tests with the largest amount being found under forest, less under shifting cultivation and the smallest under continuous cultivation. Moreover, SOC stocks correlated regionally to total annual rainfalls and latitude, and locally at the hill‐slope level to the distance to the stream network and the slope angle. It is hypothesized that this correlation is through actions on mineral weathering, soil clay content, soil fertility and SOC redistributions in landscapes. These relationships between SOC stocks and environmental factors may be of further use in (1) predicting the impact of global changes on future SOC stocks; and (2) identifying optimal strategies for land use planning so as to minimize soil C emissions to the atmosphere while maximizing carbon sequestration in soils.     

Distributions of carbon in calcareous soils under different land uses in western Iran

Concentrations of Natural stable and unstable carbon in ecosystems have been used extensively to help to understand a wide range of soil processes and functions. This study was conducted to explore the effects of land use changes on different carbon fractions (F₁, F₂, F₃ and F₄), permanganate oxidizable carbon (POXC), soil organic carbon (SOC) and total organic carbon (TOC) associated with soils in calcareous soils of western Iran. Four popular land uses in the selected site including natural forest, range land, dryland farming and irrigated farming systems were employed as the basis of soil sampling. The results showed a strong relationship between land use conversion and SOC stocks changes. The greatest mean values for carbon content and the least mean values of CaCO₃ in bulk topsoil (0–15 cm) in the forest land were observed. Dryland farming had the least both active and passive pools of C in comparison with the other land uses. The positive and significant correlations was observed between SOC, Total C and POXC contents and different C fractions. Taking C and POXC pools into account, a more definitive picture of the soil C is obtained than when only total C is measured. The influence of land use changes on overall soil carbon stocks could be helpful for making management decision for farmers and policy makers in the future, for enhancing the potential of C sequestration in western Iran.     

Effects of land clearing for agriculture on soil organic carbon stocks in drylands: A meta-analysis

Agricultural activities have been expanding globally with the pressure to provide food security to the earth's growing population. These agricultural activities have profoundly impacted soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in global drylands. However, the effects of clearing natural ecosystems for cropland (CNEC) on SOC are uncertain. To improve our understanding of carbon emissions and sequestration under different land uses, it is necessary to characterize the response patterns of SOC stocks to different types of CNEC. We conducted a meta-analysis with mixed-effect model based on 873 paired observations of SOC in croplands and adjacent natural ecosystems from 159 individual studies in global drylands. Our results indicate that CNEC significantly (p < .05) affects SOC stocks, resulting from a combination of natural land clearing, cropland management practices (fertilizer application, crop species, cultivation duration) and the significant negative effects of initial SOC stocks. Increases in SOC stocks (in 1 m depth) were found in croplands which previously natural land (deserts and shrublands) had low SOC stocks, and the increases were 278.86% (95% confidence interval, 196.43%–361.29%) and 45.38% (26.53%–62.23%), respectively. In contrast, SOC stocks (in 1 m depth) decreased by 24.11% (18.38%–29.85%) and 10.70% (1.80%–19.59%) in clearing forests and grasslands for cropland, respectively. We also established the general response curves of SOC stocks change to increasing cultivation duration, which is crucial for accurately estimating regional carbon dynamics following CNEC. SOC stocks increased significantly (p < .05) with high long-term fertilizer consumption in cleared grasslands with low initial SOC stocks (about 27.2 Mg ha⁻¹). The results derived from our meta-analysis could be used for refining the estimation of dryland carbon dynamics and developing SOC sequestration strategies to achieve the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Determination of isotope fractionation factors and quantification of carbon flow by stable carbon isotope signatures in a methanogenic rice root model system

Methanogenic processes can be quantified by stable carbon isotopes, if necessary modeling parameters, especially fractionation factors, are known. Anoxically incubated rice roots are a model system with a dynamic microbial community and thus suitable to investigate principal geochemical processes in anoxic natural systems. Here we applied an inhibitor of acetoclastic methanogenesis (methyl fluoride), calculated the thermodynamics of the involved processes, and analyzed the carbon stable isotope signatures of CO₂, CH₄, propionate, acetate and the methyl carbon of acetate to characterize the carbon flow during anaerobic degradation of rice roots to the final products CO₂ and CH₄. Methyl fluoride inhibited acetoclastic methanogenesis and thus allowed to quantify the fractionation factor of CH₄ production from H₂/CO₂. Since our model system was not affected by H₂ gradients, the fractionation factor could alternatively be determined from the Gibbs free energies of hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. The fractionation factor of acetoclastic methanogenesis was also experimentally determined. The data were used for successfully modeling the carbon flow. The model results were in agreement with the measured process data, but were sensitive to even small changes in the fractionation factor of hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Our study demonstrates that stable carbon isotope signatures are a proper tool to quantify carbon flow, if fractionation factors are determined precisely.     

Soil carbon balance following conversion of grassland to oil palm

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) crops are expanding rapidly in the tropics, with implications for the global carbon cycle. Little is currently known about soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics following conversion to oil palm and virtually nothing for conversion of grassland. We measured changes in SOC stocks following conversion of tropical grassland to oil palm plantations in Papua New Guinea using a chronosequence of plantations planted over a 25‐year period. We further used carbon isotopes to quantify the loss of grassland‐derived and gain in oil palm‐derived SOC over this period. The grassland and oil palm soils had average SOC stocks of 10.7 and 12.0 kg m^?2, respectively, across all the study sites, to a depth of 1.5 m. In the 0–0.05 m depth interval, 0.79 kg m^?2 of SOC was gained from oil palm inputs over 25 years and approximately the same amount of the original grass‐derived SOC was lost. For the whole soil profile (0–1.5 m), 3.4 kg m^?2 of SOC was gained from oil palm inputs with no significant losses of grass‐derived SOC. The grass‐derived SOC stocks were more resistant to decrease than SOC reported in other studies. Black carbon produced in grassfires could partially but not fully account for the persistence of the original SOC stocks. Oil palm‐derived SOC accumulated more slowly where soil nitrogen contents where high. Forest soils in the same region had smaller carbon stocks than the grasslands. In the majority of cases, conversion of grassland to oil palm plantations in this region resulted in net sequestration of soil organic carbon.     

Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in soil ecological studies

The development of stable isotope techniques is one of the main methodological advances in ecology of the last decades of the 20th century. Many biogeochemical processes are accompanied by changes in the ratio between stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen (¹²C/¹³C and ¹⁴N/¹⁵N), which allows different ecosystem components and different ecosystems to be distinguished by their isotopic composition. Analysis of isotopic composition makes it possible to trace matter and energy flows through biological systems and to evaluate the rate of many ecological processes. The main concepts and methods of stable isotope ecology and patterns of stable isotope fractionation during organic matter decomposition are considered with special emphasis on the fractionation of isotopes in food chains and the use of stable isotope studies of trophic relationships between soil animals in the field.     

草原土壤有机碳含量的控制因素

基于374个高寒草原和温带草原土壤样品的测试结果,运用多元逐步回归分析模型定量评估了土壤环境因子对土壤有机碳(SOC)含量的影响.结果表明:高寒草原土壤有机碳含量(20.18 kg C/m2)高于温带草原(9.23 kg C/m2).土壤理化生物学因子对高寒草原和温带草原SOC含量(10 cm)变化的贡献分别是87.84％和75.00％.其中,土壤总氮含量和根系对高寒草原SOC含量变化的贡献均大于对温带草原SOC含量变化的相应贡献.土壤水分是温带草原SOC含量变化的主要限制性因素,其对SOC含量变化的贡献达33.27％.高寒草原土壤C/N比显著高于温带草原土壤的相应值,揭示了青藏高原高寒草原较高的SOC含量是由于较低的土壤微生物活性所导致.     

Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Experimental litterfall manipulation drives large and rapid changes in soil carbon cycling in a wet tropical forest

Global changes such as variations in plant net primary production are likely to drive shifts in leaf litterfall inputs to forest soils, but the effects of such changes on soil carbon (C) cycling and storage remain largely unknown, especially in C‐rich tropical forest ecosystems. We initiated a leaf litterfall manipulation experiment in a tropical rain forest in Costa Rica to test the sensitivity of surface soil C pools and fluxes to different litter inputs. After only 2 years of treatment, doubling litterfall inputs increased surface soil C concentrations by 31%, removing litter from the forest floor drove a 26% reduction over the same time period, and these changes in soil C concentrations were associated with variations in dissolved organic matter fluxes, fine root biomass, microbial biomass, soil moisture, and nutrient fluxes. However, the litter manipulations had only small effects on soil organic C (SOC) chemistry, suggesting that changes in C cycling, nutrient cycling, and microbial processes in response to litter manipulation reflect shifts in the quantity rather than quality of SOC. The manipulation also affected soil CO ₂ fluxes; the relative decline in CO ₂ production was greater in the litter removal plots (?22%) than the increase in the litter addition plots (+15%). Our analysis showed that variations in CO ₂ fluxes were strongly correlated with microbial biomass pools, soil C and nitrogen (N) pools, soil inorganic P fluxes, dissolved organic C fluxes, and fine root biomass. Together, our data suggest that shifts in leaf litter inputs in response to localized human disturbances and global environmental change could have rapid and important consequences for belowground C storage and fluxes in tropical rain forests, and highlight differences between tropical and temperate ecosystems, where belowground C cycling responses to changes in litterfall are generally slower and more subtle.     

Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080

We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha^?1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha^?1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.     

Quantifying the erosion effect on current carbon budget of European agricultural soils at high spatial resolution

The idea of offsetting anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by increasing global soil organic carbon (SOC), as recently proposed by French authorities ahead of COP21 in the ‘four per mil’ initiative, is notable. However, a high uncertainty still exits on land C balance components. In particular, the role of erosion in the global C cycle is not totally disentangled, leading to disagreement whether this process induces lands to be a source or sink of CO₂. To investigate this issue, we coupled soil erosion into a biogeochemistry model, running at 1 km² resolution across the agricultural soils of the European Union (EU). Based on data‐driven assumptions, the simulation took into account also soil deposition within grid cells and the potential C export to riverine systems, in a way to be conservative in a mass balance. We estimated that 143 of 187 Mha have C erosion rates <0.05 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, although some hot‐spot areas showed eroded SOC >0.45 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1. In comparison with a baseline without erosion, the model suggested an erosion‐induced sink of atmospheric C consistent with previous empirical‐based studies. Integrating all C fluxes for the EU agricultural soils, we estimated a net C loss or gain of ?2.28 and +0.79 Tg yr^?1 of CO₂eq, respectively, depending on the value for the short‐term enhancement of soil C mineralization due to soil disruption and displacement/transport with erosion. We concluded that erosion fluxes were in the same order of current carbon gains from improved management. Even if erosion could potentially induce a sink for atmospheric CO₂, strong agricultural policies are needed to prevent or reduce soil erosion, in order to maintain soil health and productivity.