Differing burden and epidemiology of non-Typhi Salmonella bacteremia in rural and urban Kenya, 2006-2009

Background

The epidemiology of non-Typhi Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia in Africa will likely evolve as potential co-factors, such as HIV, malaria, and urbanization, also change.

Methods

As part of population-based surveillance among 55,000 persons in malaria-endemic, rural and malaria-nonendemic, urban Kenya from 2006–2009, blood cultures were obtained from patients presenting to referral clinics with fever ≥38.0°C or severe acute respiratory infection. Incidence rates were adjusted based on persons with compatible illnesses, but whose blood was not cultured.

Results

NTS accounted for 60/155 (39%) of blood culture isolates in the rural and 7/230 (3%) in the urban sites. The adjusted incidence in the rural site was 568/100,000 person-years, and the urban site was 51/100,000 person-years. In both sites, the incidence was highest in children <5 years old. The NTS-to-typhoid bacteremia ratio in the rural site was 4.6 and in the urban site was 0.05. S. Typhimurium represented >85% of blood NTS isolates in both sites, but only 21% (urban) and 64% (rural) of stool NTS isolates. Overall, 76% of S. Typhimurium blood isolates were multi-drug resistant, most of which had an identical profile in Pulse Field Gel Electrophoresis. In the rural site, the incidence of NTS bacteremia increased during the study period, concomitant with rising malaria prevalence (monthly correlation of malaria positive blood smears and NTS bacteremia cases, Spearman''s correlation, p = 0.018 for children, p = 0.16 adults). In the rural site, 80% of adults with NTS bacteremia were HIV-infected. Six of 7 deaths within 90 days of NTS bacteremia had HIV/AIDS as the primary cause of death assigned on verbal autopsy.

Conclusions

NTS caused the majority of bacteremias in rural Kenya, but typhoid predominated in urban Kenya, which most likely reflects differences in malaria endemicity. Control measures for malaria, as well as HIV, will likely decrease the burden of NTS bacteremia in Africa.     

A multi-center randomised controlled trial of gatifloxacin versus azithromycin for the treatment of uncomplicated typhoid fever in children and adults in Vietnam

Background

Drug resistant typhoid fever is a major clinical problem globally. Many of the first line antibiotics, including the older generation fluoroquinolones, ciprofloxacin and ofloxacin, are failing.

Objectives

We performed a randomised controlled trial to compare the efficacy and safety of gatifloxacin (10 mg/kg/day) versus azithromycin (20 mg/kg/day) as a once daily oral dose for 7 days for the treatment of uncomplicated typhoid fever in children and adults in Vietnam.

Methods

An open-label multi-centre randomised trial with pre-specified per protocol analysis and intention to treat analysis was conducted. The primary outcome was fever clearance time, the secondary outcome was overall treatment failure (clinical or microbiological failure, development of typhoid fever-related complications, relapse or faecal carriage of S. typhi).

Principal Findings

We enrolled 358 children and adults with suspected typhoid fever. There was no death in the study. 287 patients had blood culture confirmed typhoid fever, 145 patients received gatifloxacin and 142 patients received azithromycin. The median FCT was 106 hours in both treatment arms (95% Confidence Interval [CI]; 94–118 hours for gatifloxacin versus 88–112 hours for azithromycin), (logrank test p = 0.984, HR [95% CI] = 1.0 [0.80–1.26]).Overall treatment failure occurred in 13/145 (9%) patients in the gatifloxacin group and 13/140 (9.3%) patients in the azithromycin group, (logrank test p = 0.854, HR [95% CI] = 0.93 [0.43–2.0]). 96% (254/263) of the Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi isolates were resistant to nalidixic acid and 58% (153/263) were multidrug resistant.

Conclusions

Both antibiotics showed an excellent efficacy and safety profile. Both gatifloxacin and azithromycin can be recommended for the treatment of typhoid fever particularly in regions with high rates of multidrug and nalidixic acid resistance. The cost of a 7-day treatment course of gatifloxacin is approximately one third of the cost of azithromycin in Vietnam.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN67946944     

High-resolution genotyping of the endemic Salmonella Typhi population during a Vi (typhoid) vaccination trial in Kolkata

Background

Typhoid fever, caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), is a major health problem especially in developing countries. Vaccines against typhoid are commonly used by travelers but less so by residents of endemic areas.

Methodology

We used single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing to investigate the population structure of 372 S. Typhi isolated during a typhoid disease burden study and Vi vaccine trial in Kolkata, India. Approximately sixty thousand people were enrolled for fever surveillance for 19 months prior to, and 24 months following, Vi vaccination of one third of the study population (May 2003–December 2006, vaccinations given December 2004).

Principal Findings

A diverse S. Typhi population was detected, including 21 haplotypes. The most common were of the H58 haplogroup (69%), which included all multidrug resistant isolates (defined as resistance to chloramphenicol, ampicillin and co-trimoxazole). Quinolone resistance was particularly high among H58-G isolates (97% Nalidixic acid resistant, 30% with reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin). Multiple typhoid fever episodes were detected in 22 households, however household clustering was not associated with specific S. Typhi haplotypes.

Conclusions

Typhoid fever in Kolkata is caused by a diverse population of S. Typhi, however H58 haplotypes dominate and are associated with multidrug and quinolone resistance. Vi vaccination did not obviously impact on the haplotype population structure of the S. Typhi circulating during the study period.     

The burden of invasive bacterial infections in Pemba, Zanzibar

Background

We conducted a surveillance study to determine the leading causes of bloodstream infection in febrile patients seeking treatment at three district hospitals in Pemba Island, Zanzibar, Tanzania, an area with low malaria transmission.

Methods

All patients above two months of age presenting to hospital with fever were screened, and blood was collected for microbiologic culture and malaria testing. Bacterial sepsis and malaria crude incidence rates were calculated for a one-year period and were adjusted for study participation and diagnostic sensitivity of blood culture.

Results

Blood culture was performed on 2,209 patients. Among them, 166 (8%) samples yielded bacterial growth; 87 (4%) were considered as likely contaminants; and 79 (4%) as pathogenic bacteria. The most frequent pathogenic bacteria isolated were Salmonella Typhi (n = 46; 58%), followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 12; 15%). The crude bacteremia rate was 6/100,000 but when adjusted for potentially missed cases the rate may be as high as 163/100,000. Crude and adjusted rates for S. Typhi infections and malaria were 4 and 110/100,000 and 4 and 47/100,000, respectively. Twenty three (51%), 22 (49%) and 22 (49%) of the S.Typhi isolates were found to be resistant toward ampicillin, chloramphenicol and cotrimoxazole, respectively. Multidrug resistance (MDR) against the three antimicrobials was detected in 42% of the isolates.

Conclusions

In the presence of very low malaria incidence we found high rates of S. Typhi and S. pneumoniae infections on Pemba Island, Zanzibar. Preventive measures such as vaccination could reduce the febrile disease burden.     

Impact of environment and social gradient on Leptospira infection in urban slums

Background

Leptospirosis has become an urban health problem as slum settlements have expanded worldwide. Efforts to identify interventions for urban leptospirosis have been hampered by the lack of population-based information on Leptospira transmission determinants. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of Leptospira infection and identify risk factors for infection in the urban slum setting.

Methods and Findings

We performed a community-based survey of 3,171 slum residents from Salvador, Brazil. Leptospira agglutinating antibodies were measured as a marker for prior infection. Poisson regression models evaluated the association between the presence of Leptospira antibodies and environmental attributes obtained from Geographical Information System surveys and indicators of socioeconomic status and exposures for individuals. Overall prevalence of Leptospira antibodies was 15.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.0–16.8). Households of subjects with Leptospira antibodies clustered in squatter areas at the bottom of valleys. The risk of acquiring Leptospira antibodies was associated with household environmental factors such as residence in flood-risk regions with open sewers (prevalence ratio [PR] 1.42, 95% CI 1.14–1.75) and proximity to accumulated refuse (1.43, 1.04–1.88), sighting rats (1.32, 1.10–1.58), and the presence of chickens (1.26, 1.05–1.51). Furthermore, low income and black race (1.25, 1.03–1.50) were independent risk factors. An increase of US$1 per day in per capita household income was associated with an 11% (95% CI 5%–18%) decrease in infection risk.

Conclusions

Deficiencies in the sanitation infrastructure where slum inhabitants reside were found to be environmental sources of Leptospira transmission. Even after controlling for environmental factors, differences in socioeconomic status contributed to the risk of Leptospira infection, indicating that effective prevention of leptospirosis may need to address the social factors that produce unequal health outcomes among slum residents, in addition to improving sanitation.     

Typhoid Outbreak in Songkhla,Thailand 2009–2011: Clinical Outcomes,Susceptibility Patterns,and Reliability of Serology Tests

Objective

To determine the clinical manifestations and outcomes, the reliability of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S ser. Typhi) IgM and IgG rapid tests, and the susceptibility patterns and the response to treatment during the 2009–2011 typhoid outbreak in Songkhla province in Thailand.

Method

The medical records of children aged <15 years with S ser. Typhi bacteremia were analysed. The efficacy of the typhoid IgM and IgG rapid tests and susceptibility of the S ser. Typhi to the current main antibiotics used for typhoid (amoxicillin, ampicillin, cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, co-trimoxazole, and ciprofloxacin), were evaluated.

Results

S ser. Typhi bacteremia was found in 368 patients, and all isolated strains were susceptible to all 6 antimicrobials tested. Most of the patients were treated with ciprofloxacin for 7–14 days. The median time (IQR) of fever before treatment and duration of fever after treatment were 5 (4, 7) days and 4 (3, 5) days, respectively. Complications of ascites, lower respiratory symptoms, anemia (Hct <30%), and ileal perforation were found in 7, 7, 22, and 1 patients, respectively. None of the patients had recurrent infection or died. The sensitivities of the typhoid IgM and IgG tests were 58.3% and 25.6% respectively, and specificities were 74.1% and 50.5%, respectively.

Conclusion

Most of the patients were diagnosed at an early stage and treated with a good outcome. All S ser. Typhi strains were susceptible to standard first line antibiotic typhoid treatment. The typhoid IgM and IgG rapid tests had low sensitivity and moderate specificity.     

Dengue incidence in urban and rural Cambodia: results from population-based active fever surveillance, 2006-2008

Background

Dengue vaccines are now in late-stage development, and evaluation and robust estimates of dengue disease burden are needed to facilitate further development and introduction. In Cambodia, the national dengue case-definition only allows reporting of children less than 16 years of age, and little is known about dengue burden in rural areas and among older persons. To estimate the true burden of dengue in the largest province of Cambodia, Kampong Cham, we conducted community-based active dengue fever surveillance among the 0-to-19–year age group in rural villages and urban areas during 2006–2008.

Methods and Findings

Active surveillance for febrile illness was conducted in 32 villages and 10 urban areas by mothers trained to use digital thermometers combined with weekly home visits to identify persons with fever. An investigation team visited families with febrile persons to obtain informed consent for participation in the follow-up study, which included collection of personal data and blood specimens. Dengue-related febrile illness was defined using molecular and serological testing of paired acute and convalescent blood samples. Over the three years of surveillance, 6,121 fever episodes were identified with 736 laboratory-confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infections for incidences of 13.4–57.8/1,000 person-seasons. Average incidence was highest among children less than 7 years of age (41.1/1,000 person-seasons) and lowest among the 16-to-19–year age group (11.3/1,000 person-seasons). The distribution of dengue was highly focal, with incidence rates in villages and urban areas ranging from 1.5–211.5/1,000 person-seasons (median 36.5). During a DENV-3 outbreak in 2007, rural areas were affected more than urban areas (incidence 71 vs. 17/1,000 person-seasons, p<0.001).

Conclusion

The large-scale active surveillance study for dengue fever in Cambodia found a higher disease incidence than reported to the national surveillance system, particularly in preschool children and that disease incidence was high in both rural and urban areas. It also confirmed the previously observed focal nature of dengue virus transmission.     

Epidemiologic and economic burden of influenza in the outpatient setting: a prospective study in a subtropical area of china

Objectives

To understand the incidence of outpatient influenza cases in a subtropical area of China and the associated economic burden on patients'' families.

Methods

A hospital-based prospective study was conducted in Zhuhai City during 2008–2009. All outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were identified in 28 sentinel hospitals. A representative sample of throat swabs from ILI cases were collected for virus isolation using Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. The incidence of outpatient influenza cases in Zhuhai was estimated on the basis of the number of influenza patients detected by the sentinel sites. A telephone survey on the direct costs associated with illness was conducted as a follow-up.

Results

The incidence of influenza was estimated to be 4.1 per 1,000 population in 2008 and 19.2 per 1,000 population in 2009. Children aged <5 years were the most-affected population, suffering from influenza at the highest rates (34.3 per 1,000 population in 2008 and 95.3 per 1,000 population in 2009). A high incidence of 29.2–40.9 per 1000 population was also seen in young people aged 5–24 years in 2009. ILI activity and influenza virus isolations adopted a consistent seasonal pattern, with a summer peak in July 2008 and the longest epidemic period lasting from July–December 2009. The medical costs per episode of influenza among urban patients were higher than those for rural patients. A total of $1.1 million in direct economic losses were estimated to be associated with outpatient influenza during 2008–2009 in Zhuhai community.

Conclusions

Influenza attacks children aged <5 years in greater proportions than children in other age groups. Seasonal influenza 2008 and Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 had different epidemiological and etiological characteristics. Direct costs (mostly medical costs) impose an enormous burden on the patient family. Vaccination strategies for high-risk groups need to be further strengthened.     

Pneumonia Incidence and Mortality in Mainland China: Systematic Review of Chinese and English Literature, 1985–2008

Background

Pneumonia is a leading infectious disease killer worldwide, yet the burden in China is not well understood as much of the data is published in the non-English literature.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We systematically reviewed the Chinese- and English-language literature for studies with primary data on pneumonia incidence and mortality in mainland China. Between 1985 and 2008, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. The quality of the studies was highly variable. For children <5 years, incidence ranged from 0.06–0.27 episodes per person-year and mortality ranged from 184–1,223 deaths per 100,000 population. Overall incidence and mortality were stable or decreased over the study period and were higher in rural compared to urban areas.

Conclusions/Significance

Pneumonia continues to be a major public health challenge in young children in China, and estimates of pneumonia incidence and mortality vary widely. Reliable surveillance data and new prevention efforts may be needed to achieve and document additional declines, especially in areas with higher incidence and mortality such as rural settings.     

The incidence and repetition of hospital-treated deliberate self harm: findings from the world's first national registry

Background

Suicide is a significant public health issue with almost one million people dying by suicide each year worldwide. Deliberate self harm (DSH) is the single most important risk factor for suicide yet few countries have reliable data on DSH. We developed a national DSH registry in the Republic of Ireland to establish the incidence of hospital-treated DSH at national level and the spectrum and pattern of presentations with DSH and repetition.

Methods and Findings

Between 2003 and 2009, the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self Harm collected data on DSH presentations to all 40 hospital emergency departments in the country. Data were collected by trained data registration officers using standard methods of case ascertainment and definition. The Registry recorded 75,119 DSH presentations involving 48,206 individuals. The total incidence rate fell from 209 (95% CI: 205–213) per 100,000 in 2003 to 184 (95% CI: 180–189) per 100,000 in 2006 and increased again to 209 (95% CI: 204–213) per 100,000 in 2009. The most notable annual changes were successive 10% increases in the male rate in 2008 and 2009. There was significant variation by age with peak rates in women in the 15–19 year age group (620 (95% CI: 605–636) per 100,000), and in men in the 20–24 age group (427 (95% CI: 416–439) per 100,000). Repetition rates varied significantly by age, method of self harm and number of previous episodes.

Conclusions

Population-based data on hospital-treated DSH represent an important index of the burden of mental illness and suicide risk in the community. The increased DSH rate in Irish men in 2008 and 2009 coincided with the advent of the economic recession in Ireland. The findings underline the need for developing effective interventions to reduce DSH repetition rates as a key priority for health systems.     

Dog bites in humans and estimating human rabies mortality in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan

Background

Dog bites in humans are a public health problem worldwide. The issues of increasing stray dog populations, rabies outbreaks, and the risk of dogs biting humans have been frequently reported by the media in Bhutan. This study aimed to estimate the bite incidence and identify the risk factors for dog bites in humans, and to estimate human deaths from rabies in rabies endemic south Bhutan.

Methods

A hospital-based questionnaire survey was conducted during 2009–2010 among dog bites victims who visited three hospitals in Bhutan for anti-rabies vaccine injection. Decision tree modeling was used to estimate human deaths from rabies following dog bite injuries in two rabies endemic areas of south Bhutan.

Results

Three hundred and twenty four dog bite victims were interviewed. The annual incidence of dog bites differed between the hospital catchment areas: 869.8 (95% CI: 722.8–1022.5), 293.8 (240–358.2) and 284.8 (251.2–323) per 100,000 people in Gelephu, Phuentsholing and Thimphu, respectively. Males (62%) were more at risk than females (P<0.001). Children aged 5–9 years were bitten more than other age groups. The majority of victims (71%) were bitten by stray dogs. No direct fatal injury was reported. In two hospital areas (Gelephu and Phuentsholing) in south Bhutan the annual incidence of death from rabies was 3.14 (95% CI: 1.57–6.29) per 100,000 population. The decision tree model predicted an equivalent annual incidence of 4.67 (95% CI: 2.53–7.53) deaths/100,000 population at risk. In the absence of post exposure prophylaxis, the model predicted 19.24 (95% CI: 13.69–25.14) deaths/year in these two areas.

Conclusions

Increased educational awareness of people about the risk of dog bites and rabies is necessary, particularly for children in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan.     

Contact Investigation in Households of Patients with Tuberculosis in Hanoi,Vietnam: A Prospective Cohort Study

Setting

Existing tuberculosis control strategies in Vietnam are based on symptomatic patients attending health services for investigation. This approach has not resulted in substantial reductions in the prevalence of tuberculosis disease, despite the National Tuberculosis Program achieving high treatment completion rates. Alternative approaches are being considered.

Objective

To determine the feasibility and yield of contact investigation in households of patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis among household members of tuberculosis patients in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methods

Household contacts of patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis were recruited at four urban and rural District Tuberculosis Units in Hanoi. Clinical and radiological screening was conducted at baseline, six months and 12 months. Sputum microscopy and culture was performed in contacts suspected of having tuberculosis. MIRU-VNTR molecular testing was used to compare the strains of patients and their contacts with disease.

Results

Among 545 household contacts of 212 patients, four were diagnosed with tuberculosis at baseline (prevalence 734 cases per 100,000 persons, 95% CI 17–1451) and one was diagnosed with tuberculosis during the subsequent 12 months after initial screening (incidence 180 cases per 100,000 person-years, 95% CI 44–131). Two of these cases were culture positive for M. tuberculosis and both had identical or near-identical MIRU-VNTR strain types.

Conclusion

Household contacts of patients with potentially infectious forms of tuberculosis have a high prevalence of disease. Household contact investigation is feasible in Vietnam. Further research is required to investigate its effectiveness.     

Incidence rates of enterovirus 71 infections in young children during a nationwide epidemic in Taiwan, 2008-09

Objective

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is causing life-threatening outbreaks in tropical Asia. In Taiwan and other tropical Asian countries, although nationwide EV71 epidemics occur cyclically, age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections that are critical to estimate disease burden and design vaccine trials are not clear. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred in 2008–09 in Taiwan, which provided a unique opportunity to estimate age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections.

Study Design

We prospectively recruited 749 healthy neonates and conducted follow-ups from June 2006 to December 2009. Sera were obtained from participants at 0, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of age for measuring EV71 neutralizing antibody titers. If the participants developed suspected enterovirus illnesses, throat swabs were collected for virus isolation.

Results

We detected 28 EV71 infections including 20 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic infections. Age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infection increased from 1.71 per 100 person-years at 0–6 months of age to 4.09, 5.74, and 4.97 per 100 person-years at 7–12, 13–24, and 25–36 months of age, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate was 15.15 per 100 persons by 36 months of age, respectively.

Conclusions

Risk of EV71 infections in Taiwan increased after 6 months of age during EV71 epidemics. The cumulative incidence rate was 15% by 36 months of age, and 29% of EV71 infections were asymptomatic in young children.     

Epidemiology of Treated Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) across the Lifespan in Taiwan: A Nationwide Population-Based Longitudinal Study

Objectives

We used insurance claims of a nationally representative population-based cohort to assess the longitudinal treated prevalence and incidence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children, adolescents and adults.

Methods

Participants were identified from among National Health Insurance enrollees in Taiwan from 1999 to 2005. We identified study subjects who had at least one service claim during these years with a principal diagnosis of ADHD. A total of 6,173 patients were recorded in the treated ADHD cohort during the 6-year study.

Results

There was a significant increase in the treated prevalence rate of ADHD during the study period, from 64.65 per 100,000 in 2000 to 145.40 per 100,000 in 2005 (p = .001). An increase in the treated incidence rate of ADHD, from 44.67 per 100,000 in 2000 to 81.20 per 100,000 in 2005, was also observed (p = .013). However, the treated prevalence of ADHD was still lower than that of the community data in Taiwan. The peak treated prevalence of ADHD was at age 7–12 years for both males and females, and the peak treated incidence of ADHD was at age 0–6 for females and age 7–12 for males. Overall, the treated incidence and prevalence rates dropped abruptly after age 13–18 (both p<.001) for males and females (p<.001 for both). Male vs. female ratios of treated prevalence and incidence were both above 1 before age 25–30 years, but below 1 thereafter.

Conclusion

Although an increasing number of people with ADHD sought treatment during 1999–2005 in Taiwan, the treated prevalence of ADHD was still lower than that of the community data. The treated incidence and prevalence of ADHD fell dramatically after age 13–18. However, more women than men sought treatment in adulthood. There may be under-diagnosis and under-treatment of ADHD, especially among females and adults.     

Trends in the Incidence of Lower Extremity Amputations in People with and without Diabetes over a Five-Year Period in the Republic of Ireland

Aims

To describe trends in the incidence of non-traumatic amputations among people with and without diabetes and estimate the relative risk of an individual with diabetes undergoing a lower extremity amputation compared to an individual without diabetes in the Republic of Ireland.

Methods

All adults who underwent a nontraumatic amputation during 2005 to 2009 were identified using HIPE (Hospital In-patient Enquiry) data. Participants were classified as having diabetes or not having diabetes. Incidence rates were calculated using the number of discharges for diabetes and non-diabetes related lower extremity amputations as the numerator and estimates of the resident population with and without diabetes as the denominator. Age-adjusted incidence rates were used for trend analysis.

Results

Total diabetes-related amputation rates increased non-significantly during the study period; 144.2 in 2005 to 175.7 in 2009 per 100,000 people with diabetes (p = 0.11). Total non-diabetes related amputation rates dropped non-significantly from 12.0 in 2005 to 9.2 in 2009 per 100,000 people without diabetes (p = 0.16). An individual with diabetes was 22.3 (95% CI 19.1–26.1) times more likely to undergo a nontraumatic amputation than an individual without diabetes in 2005 and this did not change significantly by 2009.

Discussion

This study provides the first national estimate of lower extremity amputation rates in the Republic of Ireland. Diabetes-related amputation rates have remained steady despite an increase in people with diabetes. These estimates provide a base-line and will allow follow-up over time.     

Increasing incidence and age at diagnosis among children with type 1 diabetes mellitus over a 20-year period in Auckland (New Zealand)

Background

We aimed to evaluate the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children <15 years of age (yr) in the Auckland region (New Zealand) over 20 years (1990–2009).

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of all patients <15 yr diagnosed with type 1 diabetes, from an unselected complete regional cohort.

Results

There were 884 new cases of type 1 diabetes, and age at diagnosis rose from 7.6 yr in 1990/1 to 8.9 yr in 2008/9 (r² = 0.31, p = 0.009). There was a progressive increase in type 1 diabetes incidence among children <15 yr (p<0.0001), reaching 22.5 per 100,000 in 2009. However, the rise in incidence did not occur evenly among age groups, being 2.5-fold higher in older children (10–14 yr) than in the youngest group (0–4 yr). The incidence of new cases of type 1 diabetes was highest in New Zealand Europeans throughout the study period in all age groups (p<0.0001), but the rate of increase was similar in New Zealand Europeans and Non-Europeans. Type 1 diabetes incidence and average annual increase were similar in both sexes. There was no change in BMI SDS shortly after diagnosis, and no association between BMI SDS and age at diagnosis.

Conclusions

There has been a steady increase in type 1 diabetes incidence among children <15 yr in Auckland over 20 years. Contrary to other studies, age at diagnosis has increased and the greatest rise in incidence occurred in children 10–14 yr. There was little change in BMI SDS in this population, providing no support for the ‘accelerator hypothesis’.     

Dietary salt reduction and cardiovascular disease rates in India: a mathematical model

Background

Reducing salt intake has been proposed to prevent cardiovascular disease in India. We sought to determine whether salt reductions would be beneficial or feasible, given the worry that unrealistically large reductions would be required, worsening iodine deficiency and benefiting only urban subpopulations.

Methods and Results

Future myocardial infarctions (MI) and strokes in India were predicted with a Markov model simulating men and women aged 40 to 69 in both urban and rural locations, incorporating the risk reduction from lower salt intake. If salt intake does not change, we expect ∼8.3 million MIs (95% CI: 6.9–9.6 million), 830,000 strokes (690,000–960,000) and 2.0 million associated deaths (1.5–2.4 million) per year among Indian adults aged 40 to 69 over the next three decades. Reducing intake by 3 g/day over 30 years (−0.1 g/year, 25% reduction) would reduce annual MIs by 350,000 (a 4.6% reduction; 95% CI: 320,000–380,000), strokes by 48,000 (−6.5%; 13,000–83,000) and deaths by 81,000 (−4.9%; 59,000–100,000) among this group. The largest decline in MIs would be among younger urban men, but the greatest number of averted strokes would be among rural men, and nearly one-third of averted strokes and one-fifth of averted MIs would be among rural women. Only under a highly pessimistic scenario would iodine deficiency increase (by <0.0001%, ∼1600 persons), since inadequate iodized salt access—not low intake of iodized salt—is the major cause of deficiency and would be unaffected by dietary salt reduction.

Conclusions

Modest reductions in salt intake could substantially reduce cardiovascular disease throughout India.     

The burden of common infectious disease syndromes at the clinic and household level from population-based surveillance in rural and urban Kenya

Background

Characterizing infectious disease burden in Africa is important for prioritizing and targeting limited resources for curative and preventive services and monitoring the impact of interventions.

Methods

From June 1, 2006 to May 31, 2008, we estimated rates of acute lower respiratory tract illness (ALRI), diarrhea and acute febrile illness (AFI) among >50,000 persons participating in population-based surveillance in impoverished, rural western Kenya (Asembo) and an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya (Kibera). Field workers visited households every two weeks, collecting recent illness information and performing limited exams. Participants could access free high-quality care in a designated referral clinic in each site. Incidence and longitudinal prevalence were calculated and compared using Poisson regression.

Results

Incidence rates resulting in clinic visitation were the following: ALRI — 0.36 and 0.51 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.067 and 0.026 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively; diarrhea — 0.40 and 0.71 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.09 and 0.062 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively; AFI — 0.17 and 0.09 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.03 and 0.015 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively. Annually, based on household visits, children <5 years in Asembo and Kibera had 60 and 27 cough days, 10 and 8 diarrhea days, and 37 and 11 fever days, respectively. Household-based rates were higher than clinic rates for diarrhea and AFI, this difference being several-fold greater in the rural than urban site.

Conclusions

Individuals in poor Kenyan communities still suffer from a high burden of infectious diseases, which likely hampers their development. Urban slum and rural disease incidence and clinic utilization are sufficiently disparate in Africa to warrant data from both settings for estimating burden and focusing interventions.