气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。     

生物多样性与人居健康交互关系综述

生物多样性对维持生态系统服务功能及维护人类健康产生积极的作用, 保持生物多样性对减少社会经济损失、维护人类健康具有重要的意义。本章论述了生物多样性增加或丧失对传染病发生和传播的影响、传染病特点及其危害。重点对驱动生物多样性变化及传染病加剧的原因进行分析, 探究了土地利用变化、饲养业发展、野生动物贸易、外来入侵种、社会生态背景对传染病传播的影响。针对上述问题提出对策和措施, 为进一步加强和应对传染病, 营造人居健康环境提供了科学的基础依据。     

外生菌根真菌生物地理学研究进展

外生菌根真菌对植物矿质营养、生态系统物质循环、物种演化进程等具有十分重要的作用,但其生物地理学研究长期滞后于动植物。扩散和隔离是解释外生菌根真菌生物地理分布格局的重要理论。古地质、古气候和宿主植物是外生菌根真菌地理分布格局形成的重要推动因子。基因组学、生物信息学技术与生物地理学方法相互结合和补充,可以用来研究一些复杂的真菌生物地理学问题。文中详细阐述了外生菌根真菌生物地理学研究的重要过程和现状,如真菌物种界定、常用数据分析方法、起源和演化规律及其在生物多样性保护方面的应用等,并初步探讨了其未来的发展方向。     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

分子标记技术在入侵生态学研究中的应用

外来入侵物种给农林业生产造成了巨大的经济损失,并威胁生物多样性及人类健康．入侵生态学的研究对于认识外来入侵物种的入侵机制及其可持续控制具有重要意义．分子标记技术为解决入侵生态学研究中的许多基本问题提供了良好的手段．本文综述了该技术在外来入侵物种的鉴定、地理分布、原产地、传播模式、种群遗传变异、杂交及基因渗入等研究中的应用现状,并对其应用前景进行了展望．     

用遥感和地理信息系统研究传染病时空分布

和其他物种迁移或生物入侵过程类似, 传染病的时空传播与流行伴随着人类活动的全球化而加剧. 以血吸虫病时空传播流行定量模拟为例, 提出一种对已知传染源→媒介→宿主传播关系前提下的疾病传播的时空动态概念模型. 用西昌郊区血吸虫病流行区为例, 证明这类概念模型的可行性. 展示了遥感和地理信息系统在这类模型中具体的应用方法. 利用建立的模型, 模拟给不同村居民服药所达到的不同效果, 证明这类模型在传染病防治和控制中可以起到空间决策支持的作用. 本文介绍的模拟方法对鼠疫、肾综合征出血热、莱姆病等传染病有直接借鉴意义; 遥感和地理信息系统方法对其他有关的传染病, 甚至生物入侵过程的研究有所帮助.     

气候变化下寒露林蛙在中国的潜在地理分布

近几十年来,全球变暖对全球生物多样性及其地理分布产生了重要影响,特别是对气候变化敏感的两栖动物。寒露林蛙(Rana hanluica)是中国特有种,但在濒危物种红色名录中处于无危状态。为了评估寒露林蛙种群的生存现状,掌握该物种在中国的潜在分布区,以及在未来气候变化条件下适宜生境区的变化,本研究利用最大熵(MaxEnt)生态位模型和地理信息系统,对中国未来气候变化情景下(2050和2070年)寒露林蛙的适宜生境区进行识别。基于47个寒露林蛙分布位点和20个典型环境因子,建立了寒露林蛙在当前和未来气候条件下的适宜生境模型,并分析了相关的环境影响因子。结果表明: MaxEnt模型的预测准确度较高,受试者工作曲线面积值达0.993;寒露林蛙在当前气候条件下的潜在适宜生境面积为36.36万km²,潜在地理分布区域主要位于湖南省和贵州省;影响潜在地理分布的主要环境因子为最干月降水量和海拔。在未来2种典型浓度路径的气候情景下(SSP1-2.5和SSP5-8.5),寒露林蛙适宜生境区均出现不同程度的缩减,导致总适宜生境面积呈减少趋势;其高适宜生境向高纬度地区转移,其核心分布区仍以湖南省为主。     

山地物种海拔分布对气候变化响应的研究进展

过去1个世纪以来, 全球气候变化显著并已成为全球生物多样性面临的重要威胁之一。如何利用有限的资源最有效地保护生物多样性已成为亟待解决的最重要科学问题之一。山地因其具有较高的生境异质性、气候多样性和较低的人类活动干扰, 已成为最重要的生物多样性避难所, 也具有较高的生态服务价值, 在生物多样性保护中扮演着重要角色。但山地更容易受到气候变化的影响, 山地地区较为剧烈的气候变化将对山地生态系统的稳定性及其多样性造成严重威胁。理解山地物种海拔分布对气候变化的响应和潜在机理, 以及气候变化带来的物种海拔分布变化的负面效应, 将为全球气候变化背景下的山地生物多样性保护提供参考依据。本文综述了全球山地地区的气候变化情况, 总结了物种海拔迁移的研究进展, 重点讨论了山地物种分布最适海拔、海拔上下限和海拔分布范围变化的研究进展及不足, 比较了不同地区和不同类群物种海拔迁移的差异性, 以及物种对气候变化响应的滞后性。从生物及非生物因素等多个角度概括了物种海拔迁移响应气候变化的潜在机理, 评估并总结了气候变化引起的物种海拔分布所产生的负面效应, 主要对物种向上迁移对高海拔地区物种多样性的影响、物种迁移带来的分布区改变导致的物种灭绝风险以及物种海拔分布变化导致的种间相互作用改变等方面进行全面探讨。最后, 展望了未来在此领域研究中应注意的问题, 提出了在未来气候变化下山地生物多样性保护需要采取的措施, 强调应重点关注对气候变化较为敏感的类群及生物多样性区域, 加强中国山地物种对气候变化响应的监测网络建设和研究力度, 重点加强监测气候变化对动植物互作关系的影响。     

气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势的文献计量分析

生物入侵严重威胁生物多样性与生态系统健康,对全球环境、经济造成极大损失,而快速的气候变化显著影响外来生物的扩散和入侵进程。探讨气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势能够从宏观上把握该领域的国际研究现状与热点,为深入理解外来种入侵机制和制定合理的防治策略提供参考。该文基于最近27 a间(1990—2016年)科学文献数据库Web of Science中科学引文索引扩展版(SCI-E)数据,利用TDA等统计工具对气候变化下生物入侵方面的研究进行了文献计量分析。结果表明:27 a间共发表论文1 736篇,论文数量整体保持增长态势,2009年开始进入快速发展阶段;该领域的研究涉及环境科学与生态学、生物多样性保护、植物学等多个学科;澳大利亚莫纳什大学Chown SL教授发文量最高(35篇);美国的总发文量(708篇)和高被引、高影响因子论文数量均居世界首位;发文量最多的研究机构是加利福尼亚大学(93篇),中国科学院发文量居世界第10位(27篇);Biological Invasions是刊文量最大的学术杂志;物种分布模型、生物多样性、全球变暖、风险评估等是近年来该领域的研究热点;中国共发表论文52篇,中国科学院是国内最大的发文机构,其中,动物研究所、武汉植物园、植物研究所的发文量居中科院科研系统前三名;中国在气候变化下生物入侵领域的高被引、高影响因子论文数量及国际合作强度亟待提升。未来需重点关注气候变化下生物入侵的预测与风险评估、生物入侵与生物多样性关系、入侵物种的系统进化、入侵生态系统的多营养级关系、海洋生物入侵、生物入侵与人类健康等问题。     

青藏高原高寒草地生物多样性与生态系统功能的关系

生物多样性和生态系统功能(BEF)之间的关系是目前陆地生态系统生态学研究的热点,对于生态系统的高效利用与管理意义重大,而且对于退化生态系统功能的恢复及生物多样性的保护有重要的指导作用。高寒草地是青藏高原生态系统的主体,近年来,在气候变化与人为干扰等因素的驱动下,高寒草地生态系统功能严重衰退。为此,本文在综述物种多样性和生态系统功能及其相互关系研究进展的基础上,首先从地下生态学过程研究、全球变化对生态系统多功能性的影响等方面解析了目前关于草地生物多样性和生态系统功能研究中存在的问题。继而,从不同草地类型、草地退化程度、放牧、模拟气候变化、刈割、施肥、封育和补播等干扰利用方式对高寒草地物种多样性与生态系统功能的影响进行了全面的评述。并指出了高寒草地BEF研究中存在的不足,今后应基于物种功能多样性开展高寒草地BEF研究,全面且综合地考虑非生物因子(养分资源、外界干扰、环境波动等)对生物多样性与生态系统功能之间关系的影响,关注尺度效应和要素耦合在全球气候变化对高寒草地BEF研究中的作用。最后,以高寒草地BEF研究进展和结论为支撑依据,综合提出了高寒草地资源利用和生物多样性保护的措施与建议:加强放牧管理,保护生物多样性;治理退化草地,维持生物多样性功能;加强创新保护理念,增强生态系统功能。     

The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change

Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.     

入侵昆虫对全球气候变化的响应

生物入侵已成为一个影响深远的全球性问题,其对我国的生态系统、环境和社会经济的负面影响日益明显。全球气候变化对入侵昆虫有着深刻的影响,它正改变着一些昆虫本地种与入侵昆虫的组成、分布、种群动态和种间关系。本文分析了气候变化与生物入侵之间的互作关系,综述了全球气候变化因子(如温度、湿度及其它气候因子)对入侵昆虫生物学及生态学的影响,探讨了气候变化导致入侵昆虫定殖和传播的原因,并提出了气候变化下入侵昆虫的防治对策。     

Zoonoses

The numbers of microbial species that can infect human beings are shown to be 1415, of which 868 species (61%) are zoonotic. Since most of the emerging pathogens (75%) are originated from other animals, public health sectors should be vigilant against the emergence of new zoonotic diseases. Only 33% of zoonoses can spread from human to human after introduction into human population. Various factors such as human demography, ecological change, global transportation and climate change are responsible for the emergence of zoonoses. Even a slight change in the ecological niche where pathogenic organisms thrive would result in the increase of the incidence of the disease.     

Climate Change Enhances the Potential Impact of Infectious Disease and Harvest on Tropical Waterfowl

Global warming exacerbates threats to biodiversity as ecological systems shift in response to altered climatic conditions. Yet the long-term survival of populations at direct risk from climate change may also be undermined by local factors such as infectious disease or anthropogenic harvest, which leave smaller and more isolated populations increasingly vulnerable to the rapid pace of global change. We review current and future threats to an exemplar tropical waterfowl species, magpie geese Anseranas semipalmata , and focus on the potential synergies between infectious diseases, harvest, and climate change. We outline viral, bacterial, and fungal pathogens likely to cause disease in geese, and give mention to parasites. Further, we elaborate on a previously developed, spatially explicit population viability model to simulate demographic responses to hunting and novel or enhanced disease outbreaks due to climate change. With no harvest, the simulated disease epizootics only threatened metapopulation viability when both mortality rate was high and outbreaks were regular (a threshold response). However, when contemporary site-specific harvest is included as an additive impact, the response to disease severity and probability was linear. We recommend field research to test these hypotheses linking drivers of waterfowl population decline to disease–climate change interactions.     

Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy

Background

The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas.     

Climate changes, environment and infection: facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe

Climate change is a current global concern and, despite continuing controversy about the extent and importance of causes and of its effects, it seems likely that it will affect the incidence and prevalence of both residual and imported infections in Europe. Climate affects mainly the range of infectious diseases, whereas weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Climate change scenarios include a change distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extremes. The largest health impact from climate change for Europe doesn’t come from vector borne infectious diseases. This does not mean that these types of health impacts will not arise in Europe. The ranges of several vector-borne diseases or their vectors are already changing in altitude due to warming. In addition, more intense weather events create conditions conductive to outbreaks of infectious diseases: Heavy rains leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. The incidence of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change affect disease transmission by shifting the vector’s geographic range and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. climate-related increases in temperature in sea surface and level would lead to higher incidence of waterborne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and seafood intoxication. Climate changes all around the world with impact in Europe are demonstrated by the fact that recent cases of cholera have been imported to Europe from Kenya, where spreading epidemic has been linked to the El Niño phenomenon, originated from the Pacific Ocean. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from aberrant climate changes could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by alterations in the human immune system caused by increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation and malnutrition due to alterations in agricultural products. Different kind of incidents in Europe with extreme weather events demonstrated effects on public health. The recent outbreak of the insect-borne Chikungunya virus in Italy in 2007 is an example of the kind of new health threat that the EU must be vigilant to confront. In addition, health effects of flooding, have been related to an excess cases of leptospirosis and campylobacter enteritis. Such examples have been demonstrated reported after flooding in the Czech Republic. Similarly, an increase of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom has been related to flooding. Changing vector distributions associated with tickborne encephalitis and malaria have also been dempostrated in EU. A recently reported case of malaria in Italy in June 2008, suspected to be indigenously acquired, has shown how easily malaria could be reintroduced into several countries in the region. Another case of malaria in Greece in May 2010 affecting a young man living in a forestry region was claimed at KEELPNO-the Greek Center for disease control. Would this latest case be considered closely related to the one from Italy? If yes, then Public Health Services should elaborate plans to affront possible tickborne diseases. Heat waves are important causes of mortality on mortality are important. The deaths seen in France in 2003 from a heat wave are projected to be repeated, as heat waves become more severe. However, heat waves impacts on the transmission and severity of infectious diseases have not been elucidated. Finally scientific challenges include the elucudation of climate changes and extreme weather condition impact on infection transmission and outcome, human immune system changes and infection response, outbreak scenarios, animal and plant health and public health preparedness. European action plans to affront climate changes related health and infection problems are developed by the EU Commission at different levels and jointly by different DGs. In a few words within the EU the following points on human, animal and plant health are considered a priority: * Strengthening cooperation between the services of these three branches of health (human, animals, plants); * Developing action plans in the event of extreme weather conditions, in order to be better prepared and to react in the best way; * Gathering more reliable information on the risks of climate change whilst maintaining international cooperation, in particular with the WHO, as cooperation beyond that between Member States will be required to be more effective; * Providing additional effort to identify the most effective measures; * Improving the surveillance and the control of the animal diseases. The European Commission has decided to consider climate change, and the consequences it has on health, with greater importance whilst being aware that it is at the root of numerous diseases.     

A general assessment of the conservation status and decline trends of Mexican amphibians

We present a review on the conservation status and population trends of the 372 amphibian species currently recognized for Mexico. We based our analyses on the information gathered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature-the Global Amphibian Assessment (IUCN-GAA) as well as on available literature about imminent or potential threats to these organisms in Mexico. This country has the fifth largest amphibian fauna in the world and almost 58% of the species that inhabit this country are considered as threatened. We highlight the proportion of species per order, family, and genus that are currently under severe risk in Mexico. In addition, we prepared a detailed list of the main factors that are threatening amphibians in this country. Evidence is provided that the six main mechanisms that are globally leading amphibians to extinction (alien species, over-exploitation, land use change, global changes, pollution, and infectious diseases) are indeed currently operating in Mexico. We discuss the relative importance of each of these causes. We also highlight the paucity of quantitative studies that support the current conservation status of Mexican amphibian species.     

Natural products and their semi-synthetic derivatives against antimicrobial-resistant human pathogenic bacteria and fungi

Human infectious diseases caused by various microbial pathogens, in general, impact a large population of individuals every year. These microbial diseases that spread quickly remain to be a big issue in various health-related domains and to withstand the negative drug impacts, the antimicrobial-resistant pathogenic microbial organisms (pathogenic bacteria and pathogenic fungi) have developed a variety of resistance processes against many antimicrobial drug classes. During the COVID-19 outbreak, there seems to be an upsurge in drug and multidrug resistant-associated pathogenic microbial species. The preponderance of existing antimicrobials isn’t completely effective, which limits their application in clinical settings. Several naturally occurring chemicals produced from bacteria, plants, animals, marine species, and other sources are now being studied for antimicrobial characteristics. These natural antimicrobial compounds extracted from different sources have been demonstrated to be effective against a variety of diseases, although plants remain the most abundant source. These compounds have shown promise in reducing the microbial diseases linked to the development of drug tolerance and resistance. This paper offers a detailed review of some of the most vital and promising natural compounds and their derivatives against various human infectious microbial organisms. The inhibitory action of different natural antimicrobial compounds, and their possible mechanism of antimicrobial action against a range of pathogenic fungal and bacterial organisms, is provided. The review will be useful in refining current antimicrobial (antifungal and antibacterial) medicines as well as establishing new treatment strategies to tackle the rising number of human bacterial and fungal-associated infections.     

Climate change and health with an emphasis on interactions with ultraviolet radiation: a review

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major risk to human health, and health concerns are assuming more importance in international debates on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Health consequences of climate change will occur through direct and indirect routes, and as a result of interactions with other environmental exposures. Heatwaves will become more common and are associated with higher mortality particularly in the elderly and those with pre‐existing cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. Warmer ambient temperatures will result in more dehydration episodes and increased risks of renal disease and, through effects on pollen seasons, there may be an increase in allergic disease such as asthma and hayfever. Other adverse effects including on air quality, food safety and security and an expanding distribution of some infectious diseases, including vector‐borne diseases, are postulated. A related but separate environmental exposure is that of ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Interactions between climate change and stratospheric ozone (and the causes of ozone depletion) will cause changes to levels of ambient UVR in the future and warmer temperatures are likely to change sun exposure behaviour. Co‐occurring effects on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have potential consequences for food safety, quality and supply. Climate change‐related exposures are likely to affect the incidence and distribution of diseases usually considered as caused by UVR exposure; and changes in UVR exposure will modulate the climate change effects on human health. For example, in some regions warmer temperatures due to climate change will encourage more outdoor behaviour, with likely consequences for increasing skin cancer incidence. Although many of the health outcomes of both climate change and the interaction of climate change and UVR exposure are somewhat speculative, there are risks to over‐ or under‐estimations of health risks if synergistic and antagonistic effects of co‐occurring environmental changes are not considered.