Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State

Like other regions of the northern hemisphere, the northeastern United States has experienced a general increase in regional temperatures over the past 20 years. Quantifying the ecological implications of these changing temperatures has been severely constrained by a lack of multispecies distributional data by which to compare long-term changes. We used the New York State Breeding Bird Atlas, a statewide survey of 5332 25 km² blocks surveyed in 1980–1985 and 2000–2005, to test several predictions that the birds of New York State are responding to climate change. Our objective was to use an information-theoretic approach to analyze changes in three geographic range characteristics, the center of occurrence, range boundaries, and states of occurrence to address several predictions that the birds of New York State are moving polewards and up in elevation. As expected, we found all bird species ( n =129) included in this analysis showed an average northward range shift in their mean latitude of 3.58 km [ Prob ( H _a|data)=0.87)]. Past studies have found that northern range boundaries are more likely to be influenced by climatic factors than southern range boundaries. Consequently, we predicted that northward shifts would be more evident in northern as opposed to southern range boundaries. We found, however, that the southern range boundaries of northerly birds moved northward by 11.4 km [ n =43, Prob ( H _a|data)=0.92], but this pattern was less evident in northern range boundaries of southerly birds. In addition, we found that bird species demonstrated a general shift downhill in their mean elevation, but demonstrated little change in their elevational boundaries. The repeated pattern of a predicted northward shift in bird ranges in various geographic regions of the world provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts.     

Mycorrhizal associations of an invasive tree are enhanced by both genetic and environmental mechanisms

Biotic interactions involving exotic plants in their introduced ranges may differ from those of co‐occurring plant species and from interactions in their native ranges. When interactions are less negative, or more positive compared to native plant species, this may increase invasion success, and differences among ranges may cause changes in exotic plant traits. Here, we investigated arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) associated with Triadica sebifera seedlings from populations in native (China) and introduced ranges (US) and with seedlings from US and China species within three co‐occurring genera (Liquidambar, Ulmus, Celtis) grown in multiple common gardens in both ranges. No general pattern of higher or lower AM colonization was found in the introduced range for China and US Celtis, Liquidambar, or Ulmus species. However, AM colonization was significantly higher for Triadica than for other genera, particularly in the introduced range, suggesting AM may improve Triadica's invasion success. Triadica AM colonization was higher in US than China gardens, decreased with increasing soil nitrogen in China, but was independent of soil nitrogen in the US. This might reflect a different effect of soil fertility on this mutualism among ranges. Introduced Triadica populations had higher AM colonization than native populations, particularly in US gardens, implying a possible advantage from greater AM association in the introduced range. This is the first field study demonstrating post‐introduction changes in mycorrhizal colonization of an invasive species. It indicates that there are ecological and evolutionary components to the effect of positive interactions on plant invasions.     

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long‐term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970–1978, 2000–2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr^?1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr^?1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.     

Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large‐scale forest inventory data provide an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States. We further compared these latitudes with 20th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate‐mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.     

Combining molecular, morphological and ecological data to infer species boundaries in a cryptic tropical pitviper

Few operational methods exist for delimiting species boundaries, and these usually require sampling strategies that are unrealistic for widespread organisms that occur at low densities. Here we apply molecular, morphological and ecological species delimitation criteria to a wide-ranging, fragmented group of Asian green pitvipers, the Popeia popeiorum complex. A mitochondrial DNA phylogeny for the group indicates two well-differentiated clades, corresponding mainly to northern and southern parts of its range. Strong phylogeographical structure within each clade suggests isolation in forest refugia during the Pliocene and a southward colonization of the Sunda islands during the Pleistocene. Multivariate analysis of morphological characters reveals a generally conserved pattern of geographical variation, incongruent with the recovered phylogenetic history. We compare groups delineated by mtDNA variation to morphological and ecological divisions in the complex, and discuss the implications of these for the taxonomy of the group. Discordance between species boundaries inferred from different criteria suggests that combining independent sources of data provides the most reliable estimation of species boundaries in organisms that are difficult to sample in large numbers.  © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2006, 87 , 343–364.     

Process in the evolution of bird migration and pattern in avian ecogeography

Current ideas about the evolution of bird migration equate its origin with the first appearance of fully migratory populations, and attribute its evolution to a selective advantage generated by increased breeding success, gained through temporary emigration from resident populations to breed in under-exploited seasonal areas. I propose an alternative hypothesis in which migration first appears as a temporary directional shift away from the breeding site outside the reproductive period, in response to seasonal variation in the direction and/or severity of environmental gradients. Fully migratory populations then appear through either extinction of sedentary phenotypes, or colonisation of vacant seasonal areas by migrants. Where colonisation occurs, resident ancestral populations can be driven to extinction by competition from migrants which invade their range outside the breeding season, resulting in fully migratory species. An analogous process drives the evolution of migration between high latitudes and the tropics, since extension of breeding range into higher latitudes may drive low latitude populations to extinction, resulting in an overall shift of breeding range. This process can explain reverse latitudinal gradients in avian diversity in the temperate zone, since the breeding ranges of migratory species concentrate in latitudes where they enjoy the highest breeding success. Near absence of forest-dwelling species among Palaearctic-African migrants is attributable to the lack of forest in northern Africa for much of the Tertiary, which has precluded selection both for southward extension of migration by west Palaearctic forest species, and northward breeding colonisation by African forest species.     

Nunatak survival vs. tabula rasa in the Central Pyrenees: a study on the endemic plant species Borderea pyrenaica (Dioscoreaceae)

Aim  Borderea pyrenaica (Dioscoreaceae) is a Tertiary relict plant endemic to the Central Pyrenees. Because of its narrow distribution in a small geographical area and the fact that it is restricted to high alpine habitats, it constitutes an ideal model species for inferring the historical dynamics of population survival and migration during and after Quaternary glaciations in the Pyrenees.
Location  Central Pyrenees and pre-Pyrenees, Spain–France.
Methods  Eleven primer pairs were used to amplify 18 microsatellite loci in this allotetraploid species in a sample of 804 individuals from 15 populations, revealing a total of 77 alleles. Genotypic data of individuals and populations were analysed using clustering and Bayesian methods of analysis of population structure.
Results  A higher number of private alleles and a significantly higher allelic richness ( A *) were found in the southern area (21, A * = 2.295) than in the northern area (5, A * = 1.791). Furthermore, the allelic composition of the northern area represented a subset of that from the southern area.
Main conclusions  The hypothesis of in situ survival in northern Pyrenean nunataks was rejected, while peripheral refugia were considered to be restricted to the southern Pyrenees and pre-Pyrenees, where historical geographical fragmentation probably caused the divergence among southern Pyrenean populations. Molecular evidence indicates that these refugial populations probably colonized the northern area after sheet-ice retreat. Borderea pyrenaica lineages followed two migratory pathways in their northward colonization, suggesting several founder events for the populations that eventually reached the territory of the Gavarnie cirque.     

Winners and losers: How the elevational range of breeding birds on Alps has varied over the past four decades due to climate and habitat changes

Climate warming and habitat transformation are widely recognized as worrying threatening factors. Understanding the individual contribution of these two factors to the change of species distribution could be very important in order to effectively counteract the species range contraction, especially in mountains, where alpine species are strongly limited in finding new areas to be colonized at higher elevations. We proposed a method to disentangle the effects of the two drivers of range change for breeding birds in Italian Alps, in the case of co‐occurring climate warming and shrub and forest encroachment. For each species, from 1982 to 2017, we related the estimated yearly elevational distribution of birds to the correspondent overall average of the daily minimum temperatures during the breeding season and the estimated amount of shrubs and forest cover. Using a hierarchical partitioning approach, we assessed the net contribution (i.e., without the shared effect) of each driver. Both temperature and shrub and forest cover showed a positive trend along the time series and resulted the most likely causes of the significant elevational displacement for 21 of the 29 investigated birds. While shrub and forest cover was found to be an important driver of the expansion of forest bird range toward higher elevations, the effect of temperature on favouring the colonization of previously climatically unsuitable forests at higher elevations was not negligible. Shrub and forest expansion resulted the main driver of the range contraction for edge and open habitat species, which suffered a distribution shrinkage at their lower elevational boundary. In light of climate warming, these results highlighted how the net range loss for edge and open habitat species, caused by shrub and forest encroachment consequent to land abandonment, should be counteracted by implementing proper conservation management strategies and promoting sustainable economic activities in rangeland areas.     

Life-history traits are correlated with geographical distribution patterns of western European forest herb species

Aim To investigate whether six plant life‐history traits that have been related to colonization ability at local scales are also related to the geographical range characteristics of 273 forest plant species. Location Continental western Europe, five countries in particular: France, Luxemburg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. The region is situated between 42° and 55°N and 5°W and 15°E and has a summed total area of 971,404 km². Methods Distribution data were compiled from five national data bases and converted to a 10′ grid. Life‐history traits were taken from existing compilations of autecological information of European species. The spatial arrangement of occupied grid cells was investigated using Ripley's K. Cross‐species correlations and phylogenetically independent contrasts were used to investigate the relationships between plant life‐history traits and three range characteristics: area of occupancy, latitudinal extent and centroid latitude. Results For herbaceous species, seed dispersal mode, seed production and seed bank longevity exhibited significant associations with geographical range characteristics, including area of occupancy. Woody plant species exhibited fewer significant associations, although maximum height was positively associated with range centroid latitude within the study area. Furthermore, the ranges of species with limited dispersal ability were found to be more clustered than the ranges of species with morphological adaptations for long‐distance seed dispersal. Main conclusions For western European forest plant species, life‐history traits that are related to colonization ability at local scales are associated with variation in large‐scale geographical range characteristics. This finding implies that the distributions of some forest plant species in the study area may be limited by seed dispersal and colonization capacity rather than climate or other environmental factors.     

Reproduction and seedling establishment of Picea glauca across the northernmost forest‐tundra region in Canada

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest‐tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest‐tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest‐tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest‐tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest‐tundra ecotone.