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1.
A probabilistic analysis of fire-induced tree-grass coexistence in savannas   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Fires play an important role in determining the composition and structure of vegetation in semiarid ecosystems. The study of the interactions between fire and vegetation requires a stochastic approach because of the random and unpredictable nature of fire occurrences. To this end, this article develops a minimalist probabilistic framework to investigate the impact of intermittent fire occurrences on the temporal dynamics of vegetation. This framework is used to analyze the emergence of statistically stable conditions favorable to tree-grass coexistence in savannas. It is found that these conditions can be induced and stabilized by the stochastic fire regime. A decrease in fire frequency leads to bush encroachment, while more frequent and intense fires favor savanna-to-grassland conversions. The positive feedback between fires and vegetation can convert states of tree-grass coexistence in semiarid savannas into bistable conditions, with both woodland and grassland as possible, though mutually exclusive, stable states of the system.  相似文献   

2.
《Biophysical journal》2021,120(20):4484-4500
Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), a basic developmental process that might promote cancer metastasis, has been studied from various perspectives. Recently, the early warning theory has been used to anticipate critical transitions in EMT from mathematical modeling. However, the underlying mechanisms of EMT involving complex molecular networks remain to be clarified. Especially, how to quantify the global stability and stochastic transition dynamics of EMT and what the underlying mechanism for early warning theory in EMT is remain to be fully clarified. To address these issues, we constructed a comprehensive gene regulatory network model for EMT and quantified the corresponding potential landscape. The landscape for EMT displays multiple stable attractors, which correspond to E, M, and some other intermediate states. Based on the path-integral approach, we identified the most probable transition paths of EMT, which are supported by experimental data. Correspondingly, the results of transition actions demonstrated that intermediate states can accelerate EMT, consistent with recent studies. By integrating the landscape and path with early warning concept, we identified the potential barrier height from the landscape as a global and more accurate measure for early warning signals to predict critical transitions in EMT. The landscape results also provide an intuitive and quantitative explanation for the early warning theory. Overall, the landscape and path results advance our mechanistic understanding of dynamical transitions and roles of intermediate states in EMT, and the potential barrier height provides a new, to our knowledge, measure for critical transitions and quantitative explanations for the early warning theory.  相似文献   

3.
Arid ecosystems are liable to undergo sudden discontinuous transitions from a vegetated to a desert state as a result of human pressure and climate change. A predictive framework about the conditions under which such transitions occur is lacking. Here, we derive and analyze a general model describing the spatial dynamics of vegetation in arid ecosystems considering local facilitation as an essential process. We investigate the conditions under which continuous or discontinuous transitions from a vegetated to a desert state are likely to occur. We focus on arid ecosystems but our approach is sufficiently general to be applied to other ecosystems with severe environmental conditions. The model exhibits bistability and vegetation patchiness. High local facilitation decreases the risk of discontinuous transitions. Moreover, for arid ecosystems where local facilitation is a driving process, vegetation patchiness indicates proximity to a transition point, but does not allow distinguishing between continuous and discontinuous transitions.  相似文献   

4.
Traditional explanations of tree-grass coexistence in African savannas are based on competition between these growth forms or demographic bottlenecks of trees maintained by fire or mammalian browsers. Perturbation of their “balance” may result in an alternate system state of woody encroachment. Invertebrate herbivory has never been offered as an explanation. We developed a consumer-resource model which illustrated that annual irruptions of a lepidopteran (Imbrasia belina), known as mopane worm, can determine the tree-grass balance of semi-arid Colophospermum mopane savanna in southern Africa. Model performance was sensitive to the abundance, hence mortality, of mopane worms, owing to their complete defoliation of tree leaf biomass resulting in altered competitive relations between trees and grasses. Invertebrate herbivores have been recognized in other systems as agents for effecting a state change of host tree populations; this modeling study offers a first indication of such a role for the well-researched tree-grass relations of African savannas.  相似文献   

5.
Soil organic matter (SOM) is an indicator of sustainable land management as stated in the global indicator framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG Indicator 15.3.1). Improved forecasting of future changes in SOM is needed to support the development of more sustainable land management under a changing climate. Current models fail to reproduce historical trends in SOM both within and during transition between ecosystems. More realistic spatio‐temporal SOM dynamics require inclusion of the recent paradigm shift from SOM recalcitrance as an ‘intrinsic property’ to SOM persistence as an ‘ecosystem interaction’. We present a soil profile, or pedon‐explicit, ecosystem‐scale framework for data and models of SOM distribution and dynamics which can better represent land use transitions. Ecosystem‐scale drivers are integrated with pedon‐scale processes in two zones of influence. In the upper vegetation zone, SOM is affected primarily by plant inputs (above‐ and belowground), climate, microbial activity and physical aggregation and is prone to destabilization. In the lower mineral matrix zone, SOM inputs from the vegetation zone are controlled primarily by mineral phase and chemical interactions, resulting in more favourable conditions for SOM persistence. Vegetation zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (vegetation cover) and temporally at decadal scales (climate). Mineral matrix zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (geology, topography) but change only slowly. The thicknesses of the two zones and their transport connectivity are dynamic and affected by plant cover, land use practices, climate and feedbacks from current SOM stock in each layer. Using this framework, we identify several areas where greater knowledge is needed to advance the emerging paradigm of SOM dynamics—improved representation of plant‐derived carbon inputs, contributions of soil biota to SOM storage and effect of dynamic soil structure on SOM storage—and how this can be combined with robust and efficient soil monitoring.  相似文献   

6.
Palaeoecological data are compared with output from climate-driven forest simulation models to separate human influence as a driver of vegetation dynamics from other drivers such as climatic change. The transition from Tilia cordata to Fagus sylvatica dominance in a small forest hollow in Denmark was not predicted by a climate-driven forest simulation model and could be ascribed to anthropogenic impact. This transition can be upscaled to a large region of north-west Europe and contributes to a data-model mismatch for the European distribution of Fagus 6,000 years ago. A data-model mismatch for Picea abies during the last few centuries in southern Scandinavia can also be attributed to anthropogenic impact. Combining pollen data and vegetation models can help with the important task of upscaling from the scale of the forest stand, where anthropogenic impact is readily detectable, to regions and continents, where it is more challenging to distinguish anthropogenic impact from the impacts of climatic change.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract. A transition matrix model was used to explore the dynamics, rate and potential extent of changes in landscape vegetation patterns on a southern Texas Prosopis savanna. Transitions between seven vegetation classes were determined for the periods 1941–1960 and 1960–1983 on aerial photographs of three sites. During these periods, the sites were heavily grazed by cattle and were fire-free. Vegetation states assessed in grids of 20 m x 20 m cells superimposed on photographs ranged from grass-dominated to woody plant-dominated. The 1941–1960 period (denoted DRY) was characterized by prolonged drought, whereas annual rainfall during the 1960–1983 period (denoted WET) was typically normal to above-normal. The 1941 landscape consisted of herbaceous zones (6% of cells), woodland (50% of cells) and savanna parkland (44% of cells with grass/woody plant mixtures). The woodland state was the most stable, with probabilities of no change being 0.970 and 0.873 in WET and DRY periods, respectively. The herbaceous state was least stable, with corresponding values of 0.074 and 0.353. Past and future landscape structure was modelled by randomly selecting DRY or WET transitions at 20 year time steps. The model was run under a series of rainfall scenarios where the probability of selecting the WET transition matrix (P[WET]) ranged from 0 (DRY always chosen) to 1 (WET always chosen). Historical records indicate P[WET] has approximated 0.3 to 0.4 in the region. The rate of succession to states of greater woody cover increased as P[WET] increased. Forward simulations based on P[WET] > 0.2 suggest the present landscape is unstable and will develop into a closed-canopy woodland within the next 180 years, assuming the processes operating between 1941 and 1983 continue (e.g. grazing by cattle and lack of fire). Reverse simulations concur with historical observations and projections derived from woody plant growth rates in other studies and suggest that 200 to 300 yr BP these landscapes contained a substantially greater proportion of cells dominated by grassland or grassland with scattered woody plants (43 to 74%) than was present in 1983 (19%). Based upon elapsed time between predicted past and future steady states, succession from open savanna to closed-canopy woodland may occur in ca. 400 to 500 yr for P(WET) ≥ 0.33. Arresting or reversing the projected trend may require changes in climate and/or changes in livestock grazing and land management practices. The approaches employed in this study illustrate how time series maps, aerial photographs and satellite imagery can be analyzed and used to interpret, project and reconstruct local and regional changes in ecosystem structure. Difficulties and limitations associated with the use of Markov chains to model succession are identified and discussed.  相似文献   

8.
Aim To determine whether patterns of avian species turnover reflect either biome or climate transitions at a regional scale, and whether anthropogenic landscape transformation affects those patterns. Location South Africa and Lesotho. Methods Biome and land transformation data were used to identify sets of transition areas, and avian species occurrence data were used to measure species turnover rates (β‐diversity). Spatial congruence between areas of biome transition, areas of high vegetation heterogeneity, high climatic heterogeneity, and high β‐diversity was assessed using random draw techniques. Spatial overlap in anthropogenically transformed areas, areas of high climatic heterogeneity and high β‐diversity areas was also assessed. Results Biome transition areas had greater vegetation heterogeneity, climatic heterogeneity, and β‐diversity than expected by chance. For the land transformation transition areas, this was only true for land transformation heterogeneity values and for one of the β‐diversity measures. Avian presence/absence data clearly separated the biome types but not the land transformation types. Main conclusions Biome edges have elevated climatic and vegetation heterogeneity. More importantly, elevated β‐diversity in the avifauna is clearly reflected in the heterogeneous biome transition areas. Thus, there is spatial congruence in biome transition areas (identified on vegetation and climatic grounds) and avian turnover patterns. However, there is no congruence between avian turnover and land transformation transition areas. This suggests that biogeographical patterns can be recovered using modern data despite landscape transformation.  相似文献   

9.
The mean annual rainfall in southern Africa is found to explain over half of the observed variance in the stable nitrogen (N) isotopic signatures of C3 vegetation in southern Africa (r2=0.54, P<0.01). The inverse relationship between the stable N isotopic signatures of foliar samples from C3 vegetation and long‐term southern African rainfall is found on a scale larger than previously observed. A modest relationship is found between stable carbon (C) isotopic signatures of C3 vegetation and rainfall across the region (r2=0.20, P<0.01). No such relationship is found between stable C and N isotopic signatures of C4 vegetation and rainfall. The explanation of the relationship between 15N in C3 vegetation and the mean annual rainfall presented here is that nutrient availability varies inversely with water availability. This suggests that water‐limited systems in southern Africa are more open in terms of nutrient cycling and therefore the resulting natural abundance of foliar 15N in these systems is enriched. The use of this relationship may be of value to those researchers modeling both the dynamics of vegetation and biogeochemistry across this region. The use of the isotopic enrichment in C3 vegetation as a function of rainfall may provide an insight into nutrient cycling across the semi‐arid and arid regions of southern Africa. This finding has implications for the study of global change, especially as it relates to vegetation responses to changing regional rainfall regimes over time.  相似文献   

10.
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