Integrating a global agro-climatic classification with bioregional boundaries in Australia

Aim Stratification of major differences in the biophysical features of landscapes at the continental scale is necessary to collectively assess local observations of landscape response to management actions for consistency and difference. Such a stratification is an important step in the development of generalizations concerning how landscapes respond to different management regimes. As part of the development of a comparative framework for this purpose, we propose a climate classification adapted from an existing broad scale global agro‐climatic classification, which is closely aligned with natural vegetation formations and common land uses across Australia. Location The project considered landscapes across the continent of Australia. Methods The global agro‐climatic classification was adapted by using elevation‐dependent thin plate smoothing splines to clarify the spatial extents of the 18 global classes found in Australia. The clarified class boundaries were interpolated from known classes at 822 points across Australia. These classes were then aligned with the existing bioregional classification, Interim Biogeographic Regionalization for Australia IBRA 5.1. Results The aligned climate classes reflect major patterns in plant growth temperature and moisture indices and seasonality. These in turn reflect broad differences in cropping and other land use characteristics. Fifty‐two of the 85 bioregions were classified entirely into one of the 18 agro‐climatic classes. The remaining bioregions were classified according to sub‐bioregional boundaries. A small number of these sub‐bioregions were split to better reflect agro‐climatic boundaries. Main conclusions The agro‐climatic classification provided an explicit global context for the analysis. The topographic dependence of the revised climate class boundaries clarified the spatial extents of poorly sampled highland classes and facilitated the alignment of these classes with the bioregional classification. This also made the classification amenable to explicit application. The bioregional and subregional boundaries reflect discontinuities in biophysical features. These permit the integrated classification to reflect major potential differences in landscape function and response to management. The refined agro‐climatic classification and its integration with the IBRA bioregions are both available for general use and assessment.     

Water,land, fire,and forest: Multi‐scale determinants of rainforests in the Australian monsoon tropics

The small rainforest fragments found in savanna landscapes are powerful, yet often overlooked, model systems to understand the controls of these contrasting ecosystems. We analyzed the relative effect of climatic variables on rainforest density at a subcontinental level, and employed high‐resolution, regional‐level analyses to assess the importance of landscape settings and fire activity in determining rainforest density in a frequently burnt Australian savanna landscape. Estimates of rainforest density (ha/km²) across the Northern Territory and Western Australia, derived from preexisting maps, were used to calculate the correlations between rainforest density and climatic variables. A detailed map of the northern Kimberley (Western Australia) rainforests was generated and analyzed to determine the importance of geology and topography in controlling rainforests, and to contrast rainforest density on frequently burnt mainland and nearby islands. In the northwestern Australian, tropics rainforest density was positively correlated with rainfall and moisture index, and negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration. At a regional scale, rainforests showed preference for complex topographic positions and more fertile geology. Compared with mainland areas, islands had significantly lower fire activity, with no differences between terrain types. They also displayed substantially higher rainforest density, even on level terrain where geomorphological processes do not concentrate nutrients or water. Our multi‐scale approach corroborates previous studies that suggest moist climate, infrequent fires, and geology are important stabilizing factors that allow rainforest fragments to persist in savanna landscapes. These factors need to be incorporated in models to predict the future extent of savannas and rainforests under climate change.     

Spatial indicators of fire risk in the arid and semi-arid zone of Australia

Fire plays a role in determining the shape of the earth's ecosystems, impacts socio-economic issues, and influences our climate. In arid and semi-arid Australia (70% of the continent), individual fires frequently exceed 1 million ha, and have collectively burnt up to 9% of the total area in a single year, associated with antecedent periods of above average rainfall which boost the fuel load. People affected by these fires – Federal and State governments, pastoralists, Aboriginal communities, larger towns, conservation park managers and tourist operators – all have different outlooks and priorities about these phenomena. Little objective information about the fire regime and its drivers has been available for this vast area with its very low population density. A predictive understanding of the spatial and temporal pattern of risk of large uncontrollable fires is needed to promote pro-active management.We present a conceptual framework which serves both to summarise existing knowledge and to reduce the complexity for a quantitative statistical analysis. This conceptual framework contains four main groups of independent variables; biomass, curing, ignition source, and fire weather. For these groups of variables we identified direct data sources or spatial surrogates. To quantify different aspects of the fire regime, interpretation of NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery was employed, which identifies both fire hotspots (FHS) and fire affected area (FAA). For temporal variables, we present a surface displaying relationships for different combinations of lag/phase. This highlights different patterns for each region, and the most appropriate timeframes to use in modelling.Results of exploratory regression analysis in arid and semi-arid Australia show that the strongest influence is exerted by biomass or fuel load. As this is highly dependent on antecedent rainfall, we can anticipate a strong effect of climate change on the fire regime. The strongest combinations of relationships may be used as spatial indicators in the development of long-lead fire risk models for these areas. This can help improve the timing of pro-active strategies to manage fire, and in the allocation of sparse funds and resources. Our analysis has highlighted regional patterns of fire across different land tenures. Heightened awareness of these patterns may encourage a more cooperative and coordinated approach to fire management amongst stakeholders.     

Signatures of polygenic adaptation associated with climate across the range of a threatened fish species with high genetic connectivity

Adaptive differences across species’ ranges can have important implications for population persistence and conservation management decisions. Despite advances in genomic technologies, detecting adaptive variation in natural populations remains challenging. Key challenges in gene–environment association studies involve distinguishing the effects of drift from those of selection and identifying subtle signatures of polygenic adaptation. We used paired‐end restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing data (6,605 biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs) to examine population structure and test for signatures of adaptation across the geographic range of an iconic Australian endemic freshwater fish species, the Murray cod Maccullochella peelii. Two univariate gene–association methods identified 61 genomic regions associated with climate variation. We also tested for subtle signatures of polygenic adaptation using a multivariate method (redundancy analysis; RDA). The RDA analysis suggested that climate (temperature‐ and precipitation‐related variables) and geography had similar magnitudes of effect in shaping the distribution of SNP genotypes across the sampled range of Murray cod. Although there was poor agreement among the candidate SNPs identified by the univariate methods, the top 5% of SNPs contributing to significant RDA axes included 67% of the SNPs identified by univariate methods. We discuss the potential implications of our findings for the management of Murray cod and other species generally, particularly in relation to informing conservation actions such as translocations to improve evolutionary resilience of natural populations. Our results highlight the value of using a combination of different approaches, including polygenic methods, when testing for signatures of adaptation in landscape genomic studies.     

Wilderness and future conservation priorities in Australia

Aim Most approaches to conservation prioritization are focused on biodiversity features that are already threatened. While this is necessary in the face of accelerating anthropogenic threats, there have been calls to conserve large intact landscapes, often termed ‘wilderness’, to ensure the long‐term persistence of biodiversity. In this study, we examine the consequences of directing conservation expenditure using a threat‐based framework for wilderness conservation. Location The Australian continent. Methods We measured the degree of congruence between the extent of wilderness and the Australian protected area network in 2000 and 2006, which was established using a threat‐based systematic planning framework. We also assessed priority areas for future reserve acquisitions identified by the Australian government under the current framework. Results In 2000, 14% of Australia’s wilderness was under formal protection, while the protected area network covered only 8.5% of the continent, suggesting a historical bias towards wilderness protection. However, the expansion of the reserve system from 2000 to 2006 was biased towards non‐wilderness areas. Moreover, 90% of the wilderness that was protected over this period comprised areas not primarily designated for biodiversity conservation. We found a significant (P < 0.05) negative relationship between bioregions considered to be a priority for future reserve prioritization and the amount of wilderness they contain. Main conclusions While there is an urgent need to overcome past biases in reserve network design so as to better protect poorly represented species and habitats, prioritization approaches should not become so reactive as to ignore the role that large, intact landscapes play in conserving biodiversity, especially in a time of human‐induced climate change. This can be achieved by using current or future threats rather than past threats to prioritize areas, and by incorporating key ecological processes and costs of acquisition and management within the planning framework.     

A survey of long‐term terrestrial ecology studies in Australia

Long‐term ecological studies (LTES) are critical for understanding and managing landscapes. To identify important research gaps, facilitate collaborations and communicate results, several countries have established long‐term ecological research networks. A few initiatives to create such a network in Australia have been undertaken, but relatively few published data exist on the current state of LTES in Australia. In this paper, we present the results of an online survey of terrestrial LTES projects sent to academic, government and non‐governmental organization‐based researchers across Australia. We asked questions pertaining to the focus, scope, support and outcomes of LTES spanning 7 years or longer. Based on the information reported from 85 Australian LTES, we: (i) identify the biomes, processes and species that are under‐represented in the current body of research; (ii) discuss important contributing factors to the successful development and survival of these projects; and (iii) make recommendations to help increase the productivity and influence of LTES across research, management and policy sectors.     

Islands of water in a sea of dry land: hydrological regime predicts genetic diversity and dispersal in a widespread fish from Australia's arid zone, the golden perch (Macquaria ambigua)

Rivers provide an excellent system to study interactions between patterns of biodiversity structure and ecological processes. In these environments, gene flow is restricted by the spatial hierarchy and temporal variation of connectivity within the drainage network. In the Australian arid zone, this variability is high and rivers often exist as isolated waterholes connected during unpredictable floods. These conditions cause boom/bust cycles in the population dynamics of taxa, but their influence on spatial genetic diversity is largely unknown. We used a landscape genetics approach to assess the effect of hydrological variability on gene flow, spatial population structure and genetic diversity in an Australian freshwater fish, Macquaria ambigua. Our analysis is based on microsatellite data of 590 samples from 26 locations across the species range. Despite temporal isolation of populations, the species showed surprisingly high rates of dispersal, with population genetic structure only evident among major drainage basins. Within drainages, hydrological variability was a strong predictor of genetic diversity, being positively correlated with spring-time flow volume. We propose that increases in flow volume during spring stimulate recruitment booms and dispersal, boosting population size and genetic diversity. Although it is uncertain how the hydrological regime in arid Australia may change under future climate scenarios, management strategies for arid-zone fishes should mitigate barriers to dispersal and alterations to the natural flow regime to maintain connectivity and the species' evolutionary potential. This study contributes to our understanding of the influence of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on population and landscape processes.     

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long‐lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.     

Range size-abundance relationships in Australian passerines

Aim To investigate the relationship between geographical range size and abundance (population density) in Australian passerines. Location Australia (including Tasmania). Methods We analysed the relationship between range size and local abundance for 272 species of Australian passerines, across the whole order and within families. We measured abundance as mean and maximum abundance, and used a phylogenetic generalized least‐squares regression method within a maximum‐likelihood framework to control for effects of phylogeny. We also analysed the relationship within seven different habitat types. Results There was no correlation between range size and abundance for the whole set of species across all habitats. Analyses within families revealed some strong correlations but showed no consistent pattern. Likewise we found little evidence for any relationship or conflicting patterns in different habitats, except that woodland/forest habitat species exhibit a negative correlation between mean abundance and range size, whilst species in urban habitats exhibit a significant positive relationship between maximum abundance and range size. Despite the general lack of correlation, the raw data plots of range size and abundance in this study occupied a triangular space, with narrowly distributed species exhibiting a greater variation in abundances than widely distributed species. However, using a null model analysis, we demonstrate that this was due to a statistical artefact generated by the frequency distributions for the individual variables. Conclusions We find no evidence for a positive range size‐abundance relationship among Australian passerines. This absence of a relationship cannot be explained by any conflicting effects introduced by comparing across different habitats, nor is it explained by the fact that large proportions of Australia are arid. We speculate that the considerable isolation and evolutionary age of Australian passerines may be an explanatory factor.     

Occupancy Models of Nesting-Season Habitat Associations of Red-Shouldered Hawks in Central Minnesota

ABSTRACT Red-shouldered hawks (Buteo lineatus) are a species of special conservation concern in much of the Great Lakes region, and apparent population declines are thought to be primarily due to habitat loss and alteration. To evaluate red-shouldered hawk-habitat associations during the nesting season and at the landscape scale, we conducted repeated call-broadcast surveys in central Minnesota, USA, across 3 landscapes that represented a range of landscape conditions as a result of differing management practices. In 2004, we conducted repeated call-broadcast surveys at 131 locations in 2 study areas, and in 2005, we surveyed 238 locations in 3 study areas. We developed models relating habitat characteristics at 2 spatial scales to red-shouldered hawk occupancy and assessed support for these models in an information-theoretic framework. Overall, a small proportion of nonforest (grass, clear-cut area, forest <5 yr old), and a large proportion of mature deciduous forest (>40 yr old), had the strongest association with red-shouldered hawk occupancy (proportion of sites occupied) at both spatial scales. The landscape conditions we examined appeared to contain a habitat transition important to red-shouldered hawks. We found, in predominately forest landscapes, the amount of open habitat was most strongly associated with red-shouldered hawk occupancy, but in landscapes that included slightly less mature forest and more extensive open habitats, the extent of mature deciduous forest was most strongly associated with red-shouldered hawk occupancy. Our results suggested that relatively small (<5 ha) patches of open habitat (clear-cuts) in otherwise forested landscapes did not appear to influence red-shouldered hawk occupancy. Whereas, in an otherwise similar landscape, with smaller amounts of mature deciduous forest and larger (>15 ha) patches of open habitat, red-shouldered hawk occupancy decreased, suggesting a threshold in landscape composition, based on both the amount of mature forest and open area, is important in managing forest landscapes for red-shouldered hawks. Our results show that during the nesting season, red-shouldered hawks in central Minnesota occupy at similar rates landscapes with different habitat compositions resulting from different management strategies and that management strategies that create small openings may not negatively affect red-shouldered hawk occupancy.