SEASONALITY MAINTAINS ALTERNATIVE LIFE‐HISTORY PHENOTYPES

Many organisms express discrete alternative phenotypes (polyphenisms) in relation to predictable environmental variation. However, the evolution of alternative life‐history phenotypes remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze the evolution of alternative life histories in seasonal environments by using temperate insects as a model system. Temperate insects express alternative developmental pathways of diapause and direct development, the induction of a certain pathway affecting fitness through its life‐history correlates. We develop a methodologically novel and holistic simulation model and optimize development time, growth rate, body size, reproductive effort, and adult life span simultaneously in both developmental pathways. The model predicts that direct development should be associated with shorter development time (duration of growth) and adult life span, higher growth rate and reproductive effort, smaller body size as well as lower fecundity compared to the diapause pathway, because the two generations divide the available time unequally. These predictions are consistent with many empirical data. Our analysis shows that seasonality alone can explain the evolution of alternative life histories.     

From stochastic environments to life histories and back

Environmental stochasticity is known to play an important role in life-history evolution, but most general theory assumes a constant environment. In this paper, we examine life-history evolution in a variable environment, by decomposing average individual fitness (measured by the long-run stochastic growth rate) into contributions from average vital rates and their temporal variation. We examine how generation time, demographic dispersion (measured by the dispersion of reproductive events across the lifespan), demographic resilience (measured by damping time), within-year variances in vital rates, within-year correlations between vital rates and between-year correlations in vital rates combine to determine average individual fitness of stylized life histories. In a fluctuating environment, we show that there is often a range of cohort generation times at which the fitness is at a maximum. Thus, we expect ‘optimal’ phenotypes in fluctuating environments to differ from optimal phenotypes in constant environments. We show that stochastic growth rates are strongly affected by demographic dispersion, even when deterministic growth rates are not, and that demographic dispersion also determines the response of life-history-specific average fitness to within- and between-year correlations. Serial correlations can have a strong effect on fitness, and, depending on the structure of the life history, may act to increase or decrease fitness. The approach we outline takes a useful first step in developing general life-history theory for non-constant environments.     

Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

Latitudinal clines in alternative life histories in a geometrid moth

The relative roles of genetic differentiation and developmental plasticity in generating latitudinal gradients in life histories remain insufficiently understood. In particular, this applies to determination of voltinism (annual number of generations) in short‐lived ectotherms, and the associated trait values. We studied different components of variation in development of Chiasmia clathrata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) larvae that originated from populations expressing univoltine, partially bivoltine or bivoltine phenology along a latitudinal gradient of season length. Indicative of population‐level genetic differentiation, larval period became longer while growth rate decreased with increasing season length within a particular phenology, but saw‐tooth clines emerged across the phenologies. Indicative of phenotypic plasticity, individuals that developed directly into reproductive adults had shorter development times and higher growth rates than those entering diapause. The most marked differences between the alternative developmental pathways were found in the bivoltine region suggesting that the adaptive correlates of the direct development evolve if exposed to selection. Pupal mass followed a complex cline without clear reference to the shift in voltinism or developmental pathway probably due to varying interplay between the responses in development time and growth rate. The results highlight the multidimensionality of evolutionary trajectories of life‐history traits, which either facilitate or constrain the evolution of integrated traits in alternative phenotypes.     

Habitat complexity drives experimental evolution of a conditionally expressed secondary sexual trait

The conditional expression of alternative phenotypes underlies the production of almost all life history decisions and many dichotomous traits, including male alternative reproductive morphs and behavioral tactics. Changes in tactic fitness should lead to evolutionary shifts in developmental switch points that underlie tactic expression. We used experimental evolution to directly test this hypothesis by rearing ten generations of the male-dimorphic mite Rhizoglyphus echinopus in either simple or three-dimensionally complex habitats that differed in their effects on morph fitness. In R. echinopus, fighter males develop weapons used for killing rivals, whereas scrambler males do not. Populations evolving in complex 3D habitats, where fighters had reduced fitness, produced fewer fighters because the switch point for fighter development evolved to a larger critical body size. Both the reduced mobility of fighter males and the altered spatial distribution of potential mates and rivals in the complex habitat were implicated in the evolutionary divergence of switch point between the habitats. Our results demonstrate how abiotic factors like habitat complexity can have a profound effect on evolution through sexual selection.     

Optimal age of maturity in fluctuating environments under r‐ and K‐selection

Optimality models for evolution of life histories have shown that increased environmental stochasticity promotes early age of maturity. Here we argue that if r‐selection for early maturation implies a tradeoff making those phenotypes more sensitive to a change in population size than phenotypes maturing at older ages, K‐selection can favor delayed onset of maturation. We analyze a general stochastic Leslie‐matrix model with a simplified density regulation affecting all survivals equally through a function of the population vector, often called the ‘critical age class’. We show that the outcome of such an age‐dependent r‐ and K‐selection is that the expected value of the ‘critical age class’ is maximized by evolution, a strategy strongly influenced by the magnitude of the environmental stochasticity. We also demonstrate that evolution caused by such density‐dependent selection influences the population dynamics, showing a possible reciprocal effect between ecology and evolution in age‐structured populations. This modeling approach reveals that changes in population size affecting the fitness of phenotypes with different age of maturity may be an important selective agent for variation in onset of reproduction in fluctuating environments. This provides a testable hypothesis for how patterns in the population dynamics should affect life history variation.     

Thermal plasticity of growth and development varies adaptively among alternative developmental pathways

Polyphenism, the expression of discrete alternative phenotypes, is often a consequence of a developmental switch. Physiological changes induced by a developmental switch potentially affect reaction norms, but the evolution and existence of alternative reaction norms remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that, in the butterfly Pieris napi (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), thermal reaction norms of several life history traits vary adaptively among switch‐induced alternative developmental pathways of diapause and direct development. The switch was affected both by photoperiod and temperature, ambient temperature during late development having the potential to override earlier photoperiodic cues. Directly developing larvae had higher development and growth rates than diapausing ones across the studied thermal gradient. Reaction norm shapes also differed between the alternative developmental pathways, indicating pathway‐specific selection on thermal sensitivity. Relative mass increments decreased linearly with increasing temperature and were higher under direct development than diapause. Contrary to predictions, population phenology did not explain trait variation or thermal sensitivity, but our experimental design probably lacks power for finding subtle phenology effects. We demonstrate adaptive differentiation in thermal reaction norms among alternative phenotypes, and suggest that the consequences of an environmentally dependent developmental switch primarily drive the evolution of alternative thermal reaction norms in P. napi.     

Oviposition Site Choice and Life History Evolution

SYNOPSIS. Studies of life history evolution, as well as muchof life history theory, have typically focused on "hard" componentsof life histories; phenotypic characteristics that can be readilyobserved, quantified, and ultimately, connected rather directlyto fitness. Typical of these are propagule size, propagule number,and age and size at maturity. What is largely missing from thestudy of life history evolution is consideration of the roleof behavior, principally female oviposition site choice, inthe evolution of life histories. For oviparous organisms, naturalselection cannot produce locally optimized "hard" componentsof life history phenotypes without a consistent environmentalcontext (whether invariant orvariable); in a variable environment,that consistent environmental context can be most effectivelyprovided by interactive oviposition site choice. I present amodel of selection on oviposition site choice in the contextof the evolution of "hard" components of life history phenotypes,along with some experimental data illustrating oviposition sitechoice in response to predators. The model and data are thenrelated to the overall question of the role of oviposition sitechoice in life history evolution. The conclusion is that ovipositionsite choice must be under equally strong selection with eggsize, egg number and the other hard components of life historiesin order to generate and optimize locally adapted or ecologicallyspecialized life history phenotypes, and must therefore, playa significant role in the evolution of life histories.     

Selection on QTL and complex traits in complex environments

Understanding genetic variation for complex traits in heterogeneous environments is a fundamental problem in biology. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Fournier‐Level et al. ( 2013 ) analyse quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing ecologically important phenotypes in mapping populations of Arabidopsis thaliana grown in four habitats across its native European range. They used causal modelling to quantify the selective consequences of life history and morphological traits and QTL on components of fitness. They found phenology QTL colocalizing with known flowering time genes as well as novel loci. Most QTL influenced fitness via life history and size traits, rather than QTL having direct effects on fitness. Comparison of phenotypes among environments found no evidence for genetic trade‐offs for phenology or growth traits, but genetic trade‐offs for fitness resulted because flowering time had opposite fitness effects in different environments. These changes in QTL effects and selective consequences may maintain genetic variation among populations.     

Developmental plasticity and acclimation both contribute to adaptive responses to alternating seasons of plenty and of stress in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bicyclus</Emphasis> butterflies

Plasticity is a crucial component of the life cycle of invertebrates that live as active adults throughout wet and dry seasons in the tropics. Such plasticity is seen in the numerous species of Bicyclus butterflies in Africa which exhibit seasonal polyphenism with sequential generations of adults with one or other of two alternative phenotypes. These differ not only in wing pattern but in many other traits. This divergence across a broad complex of traits is associated with survival and reproduction either in a wet season that is favourable in terms of resources, or mainly in a dry season that is more stressful. This phenomenon has led us to examine the bases of the developmental plasticity in a model species, B. anynana, and also the evolution of key adult life history traits, including starvation resistance and longevity. We now understand something about the processes that generate variation in the phenotype, and also about the ecological context of responses to environmental stress. The responses clearly involve a mix of developmental plasticity as cued by different environments in pre-adult development, and the acclimation of life history traits in adults to their prevailing environment.     

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.     

Genetic and phenotypic variation in juvenile development in relation to temperature and developmental pathway in a geometrid moth

Life histories show genetic population-level variation due to spatial variation in selection pressures. Phenotypic plasticity in life histories is also common, facilitating fine-tuning of the phenotype in relation to the prevailing selection regime. In multivoltine (≥ 2 generations per year) insects, individuals following alternative developmental pathways (diapause/direct development) experience different selection regimes. We studied the genetic and phenotypic components of juvenile development in Cabera exanthemata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in a factorial split-brood experiment. F(2) offspring of individuals originating from populations in northern and central Finland were divided among manipulations defined by temperature (14°C/20°C) and day length (24 h/15 h). Short day length invariably induced diapause, whereas continuous light almost invariably induced direct development in both regions, although northern populations are strictly univoltine in the wild. Individuals from northern Finland had higher growth rates, shorter development times and higher pupal masses than individuals from central Finland across the conditions, indicating genetic differences between regions. Individuals that developed directly into adults tended to have higher growth rates, shorter development times and higher pupal masses than those entering diapause, indicating phenotypic plasticity. Temperature-induced plasticity was substantial; growth rate was much higher, development time much shorter and pupal mass higher at 20°C than at 14°C. The degree of plasticity in relation to developmental pathway was pronounced at 20°C in growth rate and development time and at 14°C in pupal mass, emphasizing multidimensionality of reaction norms. The observed genetic variation and developmental plasticity seem adaptive in relation to time-stress due to seasonality.     

The genetics of adaptation to novel environments: selection on germination timing in Arabidopsis thaliana

When studying selection during adaptation to novel environments, researchers have often paid little attention to an organism’s earliest developmental stages. Despite this lack of attention, early life history traits may be under strong selection during colonization, as the expression of adaptive phenotypes at later points is contingent upon early survival. Moreover, the timing of early developmental transitions can constrain the timing of later transitions, with potentially large effects on fitness. In this issue, Huang et al. (2010) underscore the importance of early life history traits in the adaptation of Arabidopsis thaliana to old‐field sites in North America. Using a new population of mapped recombinant inbred lines, the authors examined germination timing and total lifetime fitness of A. thaliana while varying site latitude, dispersal season, and maternal photoperiod. Huang et al. (2010) discovered several Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) with large effects on fitness that colocalized with QTL for field germination timing and seed dormancy—demonstrating that fitness is genetically associated with these early life history traits, and that these loci are likely under strong selection during adaptation to novel environments. In the epistatic interactions of some loci, recombinant genotypes outperformed parental genotypes, supporting the potentially adaptive role of recombination. This study provides elegant evidence that traits expressed early in an organism’s development can play an important role during adaptive evolution.     

Early is better: seasonal egg fitness and timing of reproduction in a zooplankton life-history model

Timing of reproduction influences future prospects of offspring and therefore the reproductive value of parents. Early offspring are often more valuable than later ones when food availability and predation risk fluctuate seasonally. Marine zooplankton have evolved a diversity of life history strategies in response to seasonality. We present a state-dependent life history model for the annual and herbivorous high-latitude copepod Calanoides acutus . Individuals are characterised by four states; developmental stage, structural size, energy reserves and vertical location. There are two habitats, a surface habitat with seasonal predation risk and food availability, and a safer deep habitat with no food and low metabolism (diapause). Optimal life histories (diapause and energy allocation strategies) are found by dynamic programming. Seasonal egg fitness (reproductive value) emerges from the model and peak values are typically before the feeding season. Disentangling the fitness components, we conclude that seasonality in egg fitness is caused both by environmental seasonality in food and predation risk and by time-constraints on development and diapause preparation. Realised egg production, as predicted from population simulations, does not match the seasonal peak in offspring fitness but is delayed relative to peak egg fitness. We term this an 'internal life history mismatch' as constraints and tradeoffs cause sub-optimal birth dates for most eggs whereas mothers maximise their reproductive value by high number of eggs rather than few and optimally timed eggs. The earliest eggs have a disproportionately high contribution to population recruitment, emphasising the importance of early eggs and the need to understand seasonal patterns in offspring fitness.     

Life‐history evolution under fluctuating density‐dependent selection and the adaptive alignment of pace‐of‐life syndromes

We present a novel perspective on life‐history evolution that combines recent theoretical advances in fluctuating density‐dependent selection with the notion of pace‐of‐life syndromes (POLSs) in behavioural ecology. These ideas posit phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits as a continuum from the highly fecund, short‐lived, bold, aggressive and highly dispersive ‘fast’ types at one end of the POLS to the less fecund, long‐lived, cautious, shy, plastic and socially responsive ‘slow’ types at the other. We propose that such variation in life histories and the associated individual differences in behaviour can be explained through their eco‐evolutionary dynamics with population density – a single and ubiquitous selective factor that is present in all biological systems. Contrasting regimes of environmental stochasticity are expected to affect population density in time and space and create differing patterns of fluctuating density‐dependent selection, which generates variation in fast versus slow life histories within and among populations. We therefore predict that a major axis of phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits (i.e. the POLS) should align with these stochastic fluctuations in the multivariate fitness landscape created by variation in density‐dependent selection. Phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic (co‐)variation oriented along this major POLS axis are thus expected to facilitate rapid and adaptively integrated changes in various aspects of life histories within and among populations and/or species. The fluctuating density‐dependent selection POLS framework presented here therefore provides a series of clear testable predictions, the investigation of which should further our fundamental understanding of life‐history evolution and thus our ability to predict natural population dynamics.     

Evolution in the real world: stochastic variation and the determinants of fitness in Carlina vulgaris

Empirical studies of life histories often ignore stochastic variation, despite theoretical demonstrations of its potential impact on life-history evolution. Here we use a novel approach to explore the effects of stochastic variation on life-history evolution and estimate the selection pressures operating on the monocarpic perennial Carlina vulgaris, in which flowering may be delayed by up to eight years. The approach is novel in that we use modern theoretical techniques to estimate selection pressures and the fitness landscape from a fully parameterised individual-based model. These approaches take into account temporal variation in demographic rates and density dependence. Analysis of 16 years' data revealed significant temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment in our study population. Flowering was strongly size dependent and, unusually for such a species, also age dependent. Individual-based models of the flowering strategy, parameterized using field data, consistently underestimated the size at flowering, when temporal variation in demographic rates was ignored. In contrast, models that incorporated temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment predicted sizes at flowering not significantly different from those observed in the field. Temporal variation in mortality, which had the largest effect on the flowering strategy, selected for increased size at flowering. An analytical approximation is presented to explain this result, extending the "1-year look-ahead criterion" presented in Rees et al. (2000). A fitness landscape generated by following the fate of rare mutant invaders with a broad range of alternative flowering strategies demonstrated that the observed parameters were adaptive. However, the fitness landscape reveals that approximately equal fitness is achieved by a broad range of strategies, providing a mechanism for the maintenance of genetic variation. To understand how the different parameters that defined our models determine the fitness of rare mutants, we numerically estimated the elasticities and sensitivities of mutant fitness. This demonstrated strong selection on a number of the parameters. Elasticities and sensitivities estimated in constant and random environments were significantly positively correlated, and both were negatively related to the standard error of the parameter. This last result is surprising and, we argue, reflects the genetic and phenotypic responses to selection.     

Alternative responses to rare selection events are differentially vulnerable to changes in the frequency,scope, and intensity of environmental extremes

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, severe, and/or widespread as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. While the economic and ecological implications of these changes have received considerable attention, the role of evolutionary processes in determining organismal responses to these critical challenges is currently unknown. Here we develop a novel theoretical framework that explores how alternative pathways for adaptation to rare selection events can influence population‐level vulnerabilities to future changes in the frequency, scope, and intensity of environmental extremes. We begin by showing that different life histories and trait expression profiles can shift the balance between additive and multiplicative properties of fitness accumulation, favoring different evolutionary responses to identical environmental phenomena. We then demonstrate that these different adaptive outcomes lead to predictable differences in population‐level vulnerabilities to rapid increases in the frequency, intensity, or scope of extreme weather events. Specifically, we show that when the primary mode of fitness accumulation is additive, evolution favors ignoring environmental extremes and lineages become highly vulnerable to extinction if the frequency or scope of extreme weather events suddenly increases. Conversely, when fitness accumulates primarily multiplicatively, evolution favors bet‐hedging phenotypes that cope well with historical extremes and are instead vulnerable to sudden increases in extreme event intensity. Our findings address a critical gap in our understanding of the potential consequences of rare selection events and provide a relatively simple rubric for assessing the vulnerabilities of any population of interest to changes in a wide variety of extreme environmental phenomena.     

The evolution of alternative developmental pathways: footprints of selection on life-history traits in a butterfly

Developmental pathways may evolve to optimize alternative phenotypes across environments. However, the maintenance of such adaptive plasticity under relaxed selection has received little study. We compare the expression of life-history traits across two developmental pathways in two populations of the butterfly Pararge aegeria where both populations express a diapause pathway but one never expresses direct development in nature. In the population with ongoing selection on both pathways, the difference between pathways in development time and growth rate was larger, whereas the difference in body size was smaller compared with the population experiencing relaxed selection on one pathway. This indicates that relaxed selection on the direct pathway has allowed life-history traits to drift towards values associated with lower fitness when following this pathway. Relaxed selection on direct development was also associated with a higher degree of genetic variation for protandry expressed as within-family sexual dimorphism in growth rate. Genetic correlations for larval growth rate across sexes and pathways were generally positive, with the notable exception of correlation estimates that involved directly developing males of the population that experienced relaxed selection on this pathway. We conclude that relaxed selection on one developmental pathway appears to have partly disrupted the developmental regulation of life-history trait expression. This in turn suggests that ongoing selection may be responsible for maintaining adaptive developmental regulation along alternative developmental pathways in these populations.     

Is there plasticity in developmental instability? The effect of daily thermal fluctuations in an ectotherm

Diversified bet‐hedging (DBH) by production of within‐genotype phenotypic variance may evolve to maximize fitness in stochastic environments. Bet‐hedging is generally associated with parental effects, but phenotypic variation may also develop throughout life via developmental instability (DI). This opens for the possibility of a within‐generation mechanism creating DBH during the lifetime of individuals. If so, DI could in fact be a plastic trait itself; if a fluctuating environment indicates uncertainty about future conditions, sensing such fluctuations could trigger DI as a DBH response. However, this possibility has received little empirical attention. Here, we test whether fluctuating environments may elicit such a response in the clonally reproducing crustacean Daphnia magna. Specifically, we exposed genetically identical individuals to two environments of different thermal stability (stable vs. pronounced daily realistic temperature fluctuations) and tested for effects on DI in body mass and metabolic rate shortly before maturation. Furthermore, we also estimated the genetic variation in DI. Interestingly, fluctuating temperatures did not affect body mass, but metabolic rate decreased. We found no evidence for plasticity in DI in response to environmental fluctuations. The lack of plasticity was common to all genotypes, and for both traits studied. However, we found considerable evolvability for DI, which implies a general evolutionary potential for DBH under selection for increased phenotypic variance.     

Alternative intrapopulation life‐history strategies and their trade‐offs in an African annual fish

In ephemeral habitats, the same genotypes cope with unpredictable environmental conditions, favouring the evolution of developmental plasticity and alternative life‐history strategies (ALHS). We tested the existence of intrapopulation ALHS in an annual killifish, Nothobranchius furzeri, inhabiting temporary pools. The pools are either primary (persisting throughout the whole rainy season) or secondary (refilled after desiccation of the initial pool), representing alternative niches. The unpredictable conditions led to the evolution of reproductive bet‐hedging with asynchronous embryonic development. We used a common garden experiment to test whether the duration of embryonic period is associated with post‐embryonic life‐history traits. Fish with rapid embryonic development (secondary pool strategy, high risk of desiccation) produced phenotypes with more rapid life‐history traits than fish with slow embryonic development (primary pool strategy). The fast fish were smaller at hatching but had larger yolk sac reserves. Their post‐hatching growth was more rapid, and they matured earlier. Further, fast fish grew to a smaller body size and died earlier than slow fish. No differences in fecundity, propensity to mate or physiological ageing were found, demonstrating a combination of plastic responses and constraints. Such developmentally related within‐population plasticity in life history is exceptional among vertebrates.