Prediction of cutting effects on a population of Chaerophyllum aureum– a demographic approach

Abstract. A demographic study of the undesirable perennial weed Chaerophyllum aureum in extensified French Pyrenean hay meadows was carried out. For two successive years the effect of date and intensity of cutting on the population demography of this colonizer. Population density is sensitive to cutting practices essentially through fecundity, seedling survival rate and seed dispersal between fields. Cutting reduces fecundity by preventing seed formation (early cutting) or by exportation of some mature seeds with hay (late cutting). Nevertheless, the number of seeds transported between field populations by hay harvest, organic manuring and associated cutting practices compensates for the lack of seed production in early‐cut populations, maintaining them at relative high densities. For each of three cutting regimes, the number of immigrant and emigrant seeds has been indirectly estimated from a prediction of population density at equilibrium from demographic parameters measured in field populations and compared with observed population densities.     

Effects of range position,inter-annual variation and density on demographic transition rates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hornungia petraea</Emphasis> populations

The central-marginal model assumes unfavourable and more variable environmental conditions at the periphery of a species’ distribution range to negatively affect demographic transition rates, finally resulting in reduced population sizes and densities. Previous studies on density-dependence as a crucial factor regulating plant population growth have mainly focussed on fecundity and survival. Our objective is to analyse density-dependence in combination with the effect of inter-annual variation and range position on all life stages of an annual plant species, Hornungia petraea, including germination and seed incorporation into the seed bank. As previous studies on H. petraea had revealed a pattern opposite to existing theory with lower population densities at the distribution centre in Italy than at the periphery in Germany, we hypothesised that (1) demographic transition rates are lower, (2) the inter-annual variation in demographic transition rates is higher and (3) the intensity of density-dependence is weaker in Italy than in Germany. To analyse demographic transition rates, we used an autoregressive covariance strategy for repeated measures including density and inter-annual variation. All the three hypotheses were confirmed, but the impact of range position, density-dependence and inter-annual variation differed among the transition steps. All transition rates except fecundity were higher in the German populations than in the Italian populations. Germination rate and incorporation rate into the seed bank were strongly density-dependent. Central populations showed a larger inter-annual variation in fecundity and winter survival rate. Winter survival rate was the only transition step with a stronger density-dependence in peripheral populations. In most cases, these differences between distribution centre and periphery would not have emerged without taking density-dependence and inter-annual variation into account. We conclude that including range position, inter-annual variation and density-dependence in one single statistical model is an important tool for the interpretation of demographic patterns regarding the central-marginal model. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Site‐to‐site variation in the demography of a fire‐affected perennial. Acacia suaveolens,at Ku‐ring‐gai Chase National Park,New South Wales,Australia

Abstract Acacia suaveolens (Sm.) Willd is a perennial shrub that forms even‐aged stands, recruited from a soil seed‐bank following fire. It has previously been subject to demographic studies, which used a space‐for‐time substitution to investigate temporal patterns following fire. In the present study the potential for spatial variation across sites was investigated by sampling at several similarly aged populations in Ku‐ring‐gai Chase National Park, northern Sydney, Australia. Significant variation in mean size and fecundity of A. suaveolens individuals was observed among sites, over a 2‐4.6‐fold range in plant size, and a sevenfold range in mean fecundity. The observed variation at 3 years after fire encapsulated most of the variation previously observed among sites 0‐17 years since fire, emphasizing the importance of spatial variation in this species. For each site a two‐stage (seed, plant) matrix model was constructed, and projected from 3 to 25 years following fire. Population growth was measured as number of seeds per 3‐year‐old plant, and found to vary 1.4‐fold across models for different sites. This site‐to‐site variation, as well as that in size, fecundity and survival, was statistically significant. Variation in projected seeds per plant could mostly be attributed to differences in fecundity rather than plant survival. Sensitivity analyses emphasized the biological significance of the variation in fecundity. Whereas previous studies have focused on temporal variation, this work demonstrates the importance of extending our understanding of a species to include the spatial component of population dynamics.     

Comparative demography of a specialist and generalist fruit fly: Implications for host use and pest management

Host plants used by phytophagous insects can have significant consequences on demography parameters, overall lifetime fitness and their subsequent population dynamics. Here, we conduct a comparative demographic study between the specialist Zeugodacus cucumis (French) and generalist Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) to determine whether the host plants used by these fly species play any role in their overall lifetime fitness and explains current host use patterns. These two fly species are pests within the north-eastern region of Australia and we further aimed to use complete life-history data to determine the population parameters and models that would help identify the sensitive life-history stage that could be targeted for effective field management. Eggs collected from laboratory-reared flies were inoculated into organically grown fruits of both the primary and alternate host plant cultivars of both fly species. The proportion surviving each life stage from egg through to adult and fecundity were monitored for all cohorts from the different plant cultivars. Complete stage-base life-tables for cohorts of each fly species developing from each fruit cultivar were constructed, and the key demographic parameters and population models were analysed using PopTools matrix model programme. Our results showed that the host used by each fly species had significant consequences on fly demographic parameters and hence their overall lifetime fitness. The generalist B. tryoni was able to compensate for the fitness loss experienced at the pre-adult stage by having adults with higher fecundity, but this was not the case for the specialist Z. cucumis. Stage-base population models revealed that the population growth rate of both species was highly sensitive at the adult reproductive stage, indicating that manipulating probability of survival at this life stage would effectively manage populations of these pest species. This study provides the empirical evidence of undertaking complete life history demography studies of phytophagous insects to accurately understand their lifetime fitness consequences of using a certain host, their observed host use patterns, and overall population dynamics. We suggest that any efforts to manage dacine fruit fly pest population should consider life-history consequences of host use.     

Demographic Analysis of a Disjunct Population of Froelichia floridana in the mid-Ohio River Valley

Froelichia floridana (cottonweed) occurs as a disjunct population along the Ohio River in southeastern Ohio. The anomalous occurrence of F. floridana in this area has led to its designation as a state endangered species and a management regime to maintain the habitat conditions in which it occurs. As part of this effort, a restoration site was established on public lands in 1984 from seed collected in areas threatened by development. This study seeks to determine the demographic characteristics of this species in the restored and non‐restored managed sites to provide basic ecological information regarding life history parameters and to judge the effectiveness of the restoration. For two years (1997–1998) we collected information on seed bank abundance, field seed germination, plant survivorship, and seed production to create a stage‐based transition matrix model. The model suggests that population growth and abundance as assayed by λ (rate of increase) are stable to declining and are similar between the restoration and natural sites. A reduction in competition had a positive effect on population growth. Elasticity analysis showed that plants germinating earlier in the spring and becoming established as an early cohort contributed a greater level of reproductive output than plants germinating in late spring. Lowered population growth for 1997 is attributed to a cooler and dryer than average early spring that delayed germination and subsequent seed production. Elasticity analysis also suggested that the presence of a persistent seed bank was crucial for long‐term population maintenance and may allow for recovery in areas of low aboveground abundance through soil manipulation.     

Comparative demography of two giant caulescent rosettes (Espeletia timotensis and E. spicata) from the high tropical Andes

Using field data from previous studies we built matrix models for two populations of giant rosettes, Espeletia timotensis Cuatrec. and E. spicata Sch. Bip. Wedd., from the Andes Cordillera in Mérida, Venezuela. We analysed the models and calculated population growth rate (λ), sensitivities, elasticities and the sensitivity of the elasticities to changes in the vital rates. The analysis showed that the two species behave alike in general demographic terms. In both models, population growth rate is positive and sensitivities of λ to changes in vital rates decrease markedly in this order: plant establishment, progression of juvenile–adult, germination and survival. The relative contributions of vital rates to λ (elasticities) are very similar to those of other woody plant species: a higher contribution of survival and a very low contribution of fecundity. Transition from seedling to juvenile is most important and the younger established stages (juveniles and young adults) play a predominant demographic role in both populations. Seed banks and older adults are playing a relatively minor role in the dynamics of both populations. However, they may be important in relation to unpredictable, favourable or detrimental events. Perturbation analysis of elasticities showed that increasing the rate of plant establishment will decrease the relative importance of stasis. We conclude that both species are demographically very close, and similar to other long‐lived woody plant species. However, the two species differ in the role of the seed bank, which seems more important in the demography of E. spicata than in E. timotensis.     

Source-sink dynamics within a plant population: the impact of substrate and herbivory on palm demography

Site factors have frequently been shown to affect survival, growth, and reproduction in plant populations. The source-sink concept proposed by Pulliam is one way of integrating this spatial demographic variation into population models. Source-sink models describe a population where propagules from “source” habitats sustain less productive “sink” areas. We adapted this concept to model the population dynamics of the understory palm Chamaedorea radicalis on two substrates, rock outcrops and forest floor. In our model, sources and sinks correspond to fine-scale demographic structure within the population, rather than spatially discrete subpopulations as described in the Pulliam model. We constructed a stage-structured population matrix model that integrates the site-specific demography of individuals across two habitats types that are linked by migration. We then parameterized this model with field data from C. radicalis. To address whether observed differences in palm demography between rock outcrops and the forest floor were due to natural variation between microsites or due to differences in browsing intensity from free range livestock, we parameterized separate models based on the substrate-specific demography of protected, non-browsed palms and of palms exposed to burro browse. Results showed that herbivory reduced survival and fecundity on the forest floor, which in the absence of seed migration resulted in a projected decline of forest floor palms (sinks). However with seed dispersal, palms persisted and total population growth (both substrates) was projected to be positive, indicating that seed dispersal from non-browsed palms on rock outcrops (sources) was sufficient to sustain C. radicalis on the forest floor.     

Demography and dynamics of three wild horse populations in the Australian Alps

Wild horses (Equus caballus) are a non‐native species occupying over 2800 km² of the nationally significant Australian Alps National Parks. We estimated key demographic parameters (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and annual finite population growth rate) over 3 years and related these to horse body condition and available food for three populations under natural conditions, and found a trend consistent with food limitation. The populations were independent, with different site characteristics and occupied areas, identified by land managers, as areas of concern about possible conservation impacts. Annual fecundity and juvenile survival varied across sites averaging between 0.21 and 0.31 female young per adult female, and 0.83 and 0.90 per annum, respectively, and annual adult survival was consistent across sites averaging 0.91 per annum. One population was increasing (λ = 1.09 year^?1; 95% CI 1.04–1.14) and two populations were stable (λ ～ 1.0 year^?1). Mean body condition of horses was positively correlated with mean pasture biomass rank. Across the three populations, fecundity, recruitment, body condition and annual finite population growth rate were lowest when mean pasture biomass rank was lowest and conversely highest when pasture rank was highest. We conclude that food limitation appears to be operating across these three sites. We used our results to assess the sensitivity of annual finite rate of increase (λ) to changes in key demographic parameters and found that λ was most sensitive to a change in adult survival, with the second most sensitive parameter being fecundity. Thus, if the aim of management is to reduce the size of the wild horse population then targeting adult survival is most important, followed by fecundity. Finally, we estimated the linear, negative, numerical response for wild horses between annual λ and horses per unit pasture biomass.     

Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.     

Functional Response and Matrix Population Model of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Podisus nigrispinus</Emphasis> (Dallas, 1851) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) fed on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chrysomya putoria</Emphasis> (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as Alternative Prey

Among the predators with high potential for use in biological control, the species of the genus Podisus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) have received special attention for laboratory rearing, since they feed on different agricultural and forestry pest insects. However, the type of diet offered to insects in the laboratory may affect the viability of populations, expressed essentially by demographic parameters such as survival and fecundity. This study assessed demographic and development aspects in experimental populations of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) fed on larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as an alternative prey. The demographic parameters fecundity and survival were investigated in life stages of P. nigrispinus with ecological modeling, by applying the Leslie matrix population model, producing histograms of life stages in successive time steps. The functional response of P. nigrispinus was also investigated on seven densities of C. putoria third-instar larvae at 24 and 48 h. The survival of predators that reached adulthood was 65% and the development time from egg to adult was 23.15 days. The predator showed a type III functional response for consumption of C. putoria at 24 and 48 h. The Leslie-matrix simulation of the age structure provided perpetuation of the predator population over time steps and the prey proved to be feasible for use in rearing and maintenance of P. nigrispinus in the laboratory.     

Population dynamics and comparative demographics in sympatric populations of the round-leaved orchids Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata

Orchids (Orchidaceae) are a family of flowering plants with a high proportion of threatened taxa making them an important focus of plant conservation. Orchid conservation efforts are most effective when informed by reliable demographic research. We utilized transition matrix models to examine the population dynamics and demography within sympatric populations of a species pair of terrestrial round-leaved orchids, Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata. The models were parameterized from a large data set spanning 9 years from field observations of over 1,000 orchids. Life table response experiments (LTRE) were used to identify which life history transitions, and which vital rates within those transitions, most contributed to observed differences between the two species and most contributed to interannual variation within each species. Results from mean transition matrices projected finite rates of population growth that were not significantly different between the two species, with P. macrophylla near the replacement rate and P. orbiculata below it. LTRE revealed that the difference in population growth rates between the two species was mostly due to differences in fecundity (flowering adult to protocorm transition) driven by differences in fruit set and seed germination into protocorm, which were much greater for P. macrophylla. The two primary contributors to interannual variation in population growth rates for both orchids were adult survival and fruit set, respectively. These findings indicate that any environmental disturbances harming adult survival or fecundity will have a disproportionately negative effect on the orchid populations.     

Influence of inbreeding depression on a lake population of Nymphoides peltata after restoration from the soil seed bank

The negative effects of inbreeding depression on fragmented small populations are likely to be expressed more strongly after restoration efforts if regeneration processes have been highly restricted in degraded habitats. We examined the potential influences of inbreeding depression on a population of Nymphoides peltata (Menyanthaceae) restored from the remnant soil seed bank. A hand-pollination experiment demonstrated self-compatibility of a single remaining homostyle genet and significant inbreeding depression in selfed progeny, especially in parameters related to seedling growth (–0.6 for biomass, and –0.4 for relative growth rate). Our genetic analysis indicated that the presumed number of parents contributing to the current soil seed bank was only 2–8 genets and that a single sib-family dominated at each of three sampling sites. The results also showed that the selfed progeny of the homostyle genet were overwhelmingly dominant at two sites (86.8 and 94.7%). As a result, the growth performance of the seed bank seedlings was significantly reduced, to a level as low as that of the selfed progeny. Active restoration efforts to minimize the negative effects of the genetic bottleneck and continuous monitoring based on genetic and demographic study are recommended.     

Estimating Abundance and Simulating Fertility Control in a Feral Burro Population

Overabundant populations of feral equids are negatively affecting rangelands in the western United States. To better manage these populations, robust estimates of abundance and demographic rates and cost-effective methods of reducing abundance are necessary. From August 2015 to April 2017, we estimated the abundance of feral burros (Equus asinus) at the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC; California, USA) using a double-observer-sightability aerial survey method; captured, radio-collared, and inoculated female burros with porcine zona pellucida (PZP), an immunocontraceptive control agent; estimated female demographic rates; and used matrix population models to simulate how changes in demographic and PZP delivery rates would influence burro abundance. We estimated there were 690 (95% CI = 618–752) feral burros within the surveyed area, but these are part of a much larger population that is not geographically isolated from those in the survey area. Sighting probabilities ranged from 0.19–0.98 and were most strongly influenced by distance from observer and group size. We estimated age-specific demographic rates at the NTC and compiled mean rates across burro populations in arid environments from the literature. Mean fecundity varied from 0.17 to 0.58 foals/adult female with younger females having lower fecundity. Mean survival was 0.90 for foals, 0.98 for yearlings, and 0.96 for adults. The PZP vaccine treatment strategies that suppressed fertility for up to 10 years predicted that burro abundance would be reduced by 67–88% after 15 years (compared with no treatment), but none of these strategies resulted in population extirpation. Population growth rates shifted from increasing to decreasing at adult survival rates below 0.84 and the population was predicted to become extirpated when adult survival declined to <0.60. In the absence of other methods to reduce burro numbers, our findings indicate that current formulations of PZP immunocontraception, which require multiple doses, would be inadequate for controlling population growth rates at the NTC. Our fieldwork also highlighted the difficulty of administering PZP vaccination to large, free-ranging animals. Development of longer-term fertility reduction agents or more efficient vaccine delivery techniques would likely improve the efficacy of fertility control for overabundant ungulate populations. Lack of geographic closure (physical barriers to migration) further complicated efforts to reduce burro numbers. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

A data-driven demographic model to explore the decline of the Bathurst caribou herd

The Bathurst herd of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in the Canadian central arctic declined from an estimated 203,800 to 16,400 breeding females from 1986 to 2009, with the most rapid decline from 2006 to 2009. A key research and management question was whether the decline was mainly due to decreases in productivity alone or also due to reduced adult female survival. Investigating causes of the decline was hampered by a lack of direct estimates of caribou demographic parameters. We developed a demographic model that could be objectively fitted to field data to explore the mechanisms for the Bathurst decline, with a focus on the recent accelerated decline from 2006 to 2009. Our modeling indicated that the decline was driven by increasing negative trends in adult female and calf survival rates and possibly reduced fecundity The effect of a constant hunter harvest on the declining herd was one potential cause for the recent accelerated decline in adult survival. The demographic model detected negative trends in adult female survival that were not detected using standalone analyses of collar-based survival data. The model allowed rigorous interpretation of trends in productivity by controlling for the simultaneous influence of trends in adult, calf, and yearling survival and adult fecundity on field-based calf–cow ratios. Stochastic simulations suggested that large increases in adult survival and productivity would be needed for the herd to recover. Our methods enable objective modeling of caribou demography that can assist in caribou management based upon all sources of available data. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie-Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

ABSTRACT The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is currently considered a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act. To identify potential limiting factors for lesser prairie-chicken populations, we developed an age-based matrix model of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics to compare the relative importance of components of reproduction and survival, and determine if various management alternatives stabilize or increase rates of population change. We based our analyses on an intensive 6-year population study from which demographic rates were estimated for each age class in Kansas. We used deterministic models and elasticity values to identify parameters predicted to have the greatest effect on the rate of population change (λ) at 2 study sites. Last, we used life-stage simulation analysis to simulate various management alternatives. Lambda was <1 for both populations (site 1: λ = 0.54, site 2: λ = 0.74). However, we found differences in sensitivity to nest success and chick survival between populations. The results of the simulated management scenarios complemented the lower-level elasticity analysis and indicated the relative importance of female survival during the breeding season compared with winter. If management practices are only capable of targeting a single demographic rate, changes to either nest success or chick survival had the greatest impact on λ at site 1 and 2, respectively. Management that simultaneously manipulated both nest success and chick survival was predicted to have a greater effect on λ than changes in survival of adult females. In practice, our demographic analyses indicate that effective management should be based on habitat conservation measures to increase components of fecundity.     

Demographic sensitivity and persistence of the threatened white- and orange-bellied frogs of Western Australia

Anurans have been the subject of numerous experimental and monitoring studies, yet their autecology under natural conditions remains poorly understood. Previous work has focussed on the pre-metamorphic life stages, with data suitable for estimating demographic parameters for all life stages collected in few species. This deficiency has almost certainly confounded current views of amphibian autecology and understanding of which mechanisms of decline represent the greatest threats to the persistence of amphibian species. We used a stage-structured metapopulation model, parameterised with comprehensive field data, to explore the sensitivity of two species of myobatrachid frogs from the southwest of Australia, Geocrinia alba and G. vitellina, to changes in demographic parameters at all life stages. The simulation modelling indicated that the population dynamics of both species were consistently most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, then to fecundity, and third to both adult survival and standard deviation of survival to about equal extent. In practical terms, this indicates that management interventions which attempt to mitigate reductions in juvenile survival are likely to be most successful in arresting anuran metapopulation declines.     

Effects of canopy gaps on the demography of the subcanopy tree Styrax obassia

Abstract. To evaluate the gap dependency of the subcanopy tree species Styrax obassia, we estimated the demographic parameters of this species in a permanent plot in the Ogawa Forest Reserve, Central Japan, a temperate deciduous forest. From the data collected over eight years, we constructed four transition matrix models of Styrax: a whole population; a shaded subpopulation; a gap-site subpopulation; a compound population of shaded and gap-site subpopulations. The whole-population model suggested that the population structure of Styrax is stable in its present condition. The asymptotic population growth rate of the shaded subpopulation was larger than 1, suggesting that this species can maintain its population even under shaded conditions. The elasticity analyses showed the relative importance of survival of adult individuals that stay mostly under a closed canopy. Since the subpopulation in gaps is very small in a mature forest, the contributions of high seedling survival and high fecundity of adult trees in gaps to the whole population growth were smaller than the survival of adult individuals in the shade. Although we showed that this species has the potential to increase its population in larger disturbances, it actually dominates in the study site where the disturbance scale is relatively small. Styrax should be classified as a typical shade-tolerant species, and it also takes good advantage of small scale disturbance. It can sufficiently maintain its population in a mature forest with small-scale disturbances and has the adaptive characteristics of species that live under a closed canopy.     

Population biology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kosteletzkya pentacarpos</Emphasis> (Malvaceae) in the Llobregat delta (Catalonia,NE of Spain)

Field experiments and wild population monitoring have been performed to study the population biology of the rare long-lived Kosteletzkya pentacarpos (Malvaceae) in the Llobregat delta (Catalonia, NE Spain). Field experiments explored the fate of seeds in soil at different depths, seedling emergence, and seedling survival, growth and flowering with and without canopy cover during the first 2 years of life. They also were used to ascertain the size-related pattern of seedling survivorship and flowering. Field data concerning mortality, growth and fecundity of adult plants were collected yearly in three wild populations for 7–9 years. In old adults (reproducing long before the beginning of the study), ANOVAR tests were performed to compare maximum diameter, total and fertile shoots, and viable seeds per plant between years and populations. New adults (starting flowering the first year of study or in subsequent years) were used to explore, using linear and polynomial regressions, the association of RGR and both total and fertile shoot production with (i) plant size (maximum basal diameter or its logarithm); (ii) plant age (years in adult stage); and (iii) plant age after removing the effect of size and year-to-year fluctuations. In this case, we examined the age-related pattern of the residuals obtained from the regressions with size and year. The study identified the following main demographic features of K. pentacarpos: (i) transient, shallow soil seed bank; (ii) shade tolerance of seedling emergence; (iii) canopy-facilitation of seedling survival and bolting during the first two years of life; (iv) size-related pattern for seedling survivorship but not flowering; (v) exclusive dependence on a fluctuating seed output for reproduction; (vi) rapid adult growth; and (vii) high adult longevity but (viii) rapid depletion of fecundity with age. Seed output was highly constrained by mining insects. The changing size-structure and the decreasing reproductive success of old adults in several populations suggest that K. pentacarpos might undergo a dynamics of population establishment and extinction in the Ricarda marshes. Because of fluctuating reproduction and the lack of a persistent seed bank, the conservation of standing adult populations appears to be a key factor to ensure the persistence of the species.     

State-space modelling reveals proximate causes of harbour seal population declines

Declines in large vertebrate populations are widespread but difficult to detect from monitoring data and hard to understand due to a multiplicity of plausible biological explanations. In parts of Scotland, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) have been in decline for 10 years. To evaluate the contributions of different proximate causes (survival, fecundity, observation artefacts) to this decline, we collated behavioural, demographic and population data from one intensively studied population in part of the Moray Firth (north-east Scotland). To these, we fit a state-space model comprising age-structured dynamics and a detailed account of observation errors. After accounting for culling (estimated by our model as 14 % of total mortality), the main driver of the historical population decline was a decreasing trend in survival of young individuals combined with (previously unrecognised) low levels of pupping success. In more recent years, the model provides evidence for considerable increases in breeding success and consistently high levels of adult survival. However, breeding success remains the most volatile demographic component of the population. Forecasts from the model indicate a slow population recovery, providing cautious support for recent management measures. Such investigations of the proximate causes of population change (survival, fecundity and observation errors) provide valuable short-term support for the management of population declines, helping to focus future data collection on those ultimate causal mechanisms that are not excluded by the demographic evidence. The contribution of specific ultimate drivers (e.g. shooting mortality or competitors) can also be quantified by including them as covariates to survival or fecundity.     

Demographic models of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina)

Summary Calassical demographic methods applied to life history data on the northern spotted owl yield and estimate of the annual geometric rate of increase for the population of λ=0.96±0.03, which is not significantly different from that for a stable population (λ=1.00). Sensitivity analysis indicates that adult annual survivorship has by far the largest influence on λ, followed by the probability that juveniles survive dispersal, and the adult annual fecundity. Substantial temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters have little effect on the long-run growth rate of the population because of the long adult life expectancy. A model of dispersal and territory occupancy that assumes demographic equilibrium is evaluated using data on the amount of old forest habitat remaining in the Pacific Northwest and the current occupancy of this habitat by northern spotted owls. This model is employed to predict the effect of future habitat loss and fragmentation on the population, implying that extinction will result if the old forest is reduced to less than a proportion 0.21±0.02 of the total area in a large region. The estimated minimum habitat requirement for the population is greater than that allowed in management plants by the USDA Forest Service.