Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

The contribution of the mitochondrial genome to sex‐specific fitness variance

Maternal inheritance of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) facilitates the evolutionary accumulation of mutations with sex‐biased fitness effects. Whereas maternal inheritance closely aligns mtDNA evolution with natural selection in females, it makes it indifferent to evolutionary changes that exclusively benefit males. The constrained response of mtDNA to selection in males can lead to asymmetries in the relative contributions of mitochondrial genes to female versus male fitness variation. Here, we examine the impact of genetic drift and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) among mutations—including the correlation of mutant fitness effects between the sexes—on mitochondrial genetic variation for fitness. We show how drift, genetic correlations, and skewness of the DFE determine the relative contributions of mitochondrial genes to male versus female fitness variance. When mutant fitness effects are weakly correlated between the sexes, and the effective population size is large, mitochondrial genes should contribute much more to male than to female fitness variance. In contrast, high fitness correlations and small population sizes tend to equalize the contributions of mitochondrial genes to female versus male variance. We discuss implications of these results for the evolution of mitochondrial genome diversity and the genetic architecture of female and male fitness.     

What affects the predictability of evolutionary constraints using a G‐matrix? The relative effects of modular pleiotropy and mutational correlation

Phenotypic traits do not always respond to selection independently from each other and often show correlated responses to selection. The structure of a genotype‐phenotype map (GP map) determines trait covariation, which involves variation in the degree and strength of the pleiotropic effects of the underlying genes. It is still unclear, and debated, how much of that structure can be deduced from variational properties of quantitative traits that are inferred from their genetic (co) variance matrix ( G ‐matrix). Here we aim to clarify how the extent of pleiotropy and the correlation among the pleiotropic effects of mutations differentially affect the structure of a G ‐matrix and our ability to detect genetic constraints from its eigen decomposition. We show that the eigenvectors of a G ‐matrix can be predictive of evolutionary constraints when they map to underlying pleiotropic modules with correlated mutational effects. Without mutational correlation, evolutionary constraints caused by the fitness costs associated with increased pleiotropy are harder to infer from evolutionary metrics based on a G ‐matrix's geometric properties because uncorrelated pleiotropic effects do not affect traits' genetic correlations. Correlational selection induces much weaker modular partitioning of traits' genetic correlations in absence then in presence of underlying modular pleiotropy.     

The distribution of fitness effects of new beneficial mutations in Pseudomonas fluorescens

Theoretical studies of adaptation emphasize the importance of understanding the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations. We report the isolation of 100 adaptive mutants—without the biasing influence of natural selection—from an ancestral genotype whose fitness in the niche occupied by the derived type is extremely low. The fitness of each derived genotype was determined relative to a single reference type and the fitness effects found to conform to a normal distribution. When fitness was measured in a different environment, the rank order changed, but not the shape of the distribution. We argue that, even with detailed knowledge of the genetic architecture underpinning the adaptive types (as is the case here), the DFEs remain unpredictable, and we discuss the possibility that general explanations for the shape of the DFE might not be possible in the absence of organism-specific biological details.     

Genetic variance in fitness and its cross-sex covariance predict adaptation during experimental evolution

The additive genetic variation (V_A) of fitness in a population is of particular importance to quantify its adaptive potential and predict its response to rapid environmental change. Recent statistical advances in quantitative genetics and the use of new molecular tools have fostered great interest in estimating fitness V_A in wild populations. However, the value of V_A for fitness in predicting evolutionary changes over several generations remains mostly unknown. In our study, we addressed this question by combining classical quantitative genetics with experimental evolution in the model organism Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle) in three new environmental conditions (Dry, Hot, Hot-Dry). We tested for potential constraints that might limit adaptation, including environmental and sex genetic antagonisms captured by negative genetic covariance between environments and female and male fitness, respectively. Observed fitness changes after 20 generations mainly matched our predictions. Given that body size is commonly used as a proxy for fitness, we also tested how this trait and its genetic variance (including nonadditive genetic variance) were impacted by environmental stress. In both traits, genetic variances were sex and condition dependent, but they differed in their variance composition, cross-sex and cross-environment genetic covariances, as well as in the environmental impact on V_A.     

Generalists versus specialists in fluctuating environments: a bet-hedging perspective

Bet-hedging evolves in fluctuating environments because long-term genotype success is determined by geometric (rather than arithmetic) mean fitness across generations. Diversifying bet-hedging produces different specialist offspring, whereas conservative bet-hedging produces similar generalist offspring. However, many fields, such as behavioral ecology and thermal physiology, typically consider specialist versus generalist strategies only in terms of maximizing arithmetic mean fitness benefits to individuals. Here we model how environmental variability affects optimal amounts of phenotypic variation within and among individuals to maximise genotype fitness, and we disentangle the effects of individual-level optimization and genotype-level bet-hedging by comparing long-term arithmetic versus geometric mean fitness. For traits with additive fitness effects within lifetimes (e.g. foraging-related traits), genotypes of similar generalists or diversified specialists perform equally well. However, if fitness effects are multiplicative within lifetimes (e.g. sequential survival probabilities), generalist individuals are always favored. In this case, geometric mean fitness optimization requires even more within-individual phenotypic variation than does arithmetic mean fitness, causing individuals to be more generalist than required to simply maximize their own expected fitness. In contrast to previous results in the bet-hedging literature, this generalist conservative bet-hedging effect is always favored over diversifying bet-hedging. These results link the evolution of behavioral and ecological specialization with earlier models of bet-hedging, and we apply our framework to a range of natural phenomena from habitat choice to host specificity in parasites.     

Field measurements of genotype by environment interaction for fitness caused by spontaneous mutations in Arabidopsis thaliana

As the ultimate source of genetic diversity, spontaneous mutation is critical to the evolutionary process. The fitness effects of spontaneous mutations are almost always studied under controlled laboratory conditions rather than under the evolutionarily relevant conditions of the field. Of particular interest is the conditionality of new mutations—that is, is a new mutation harmful regardless of the environment in which it is found? In other words, what is the extent of genotype–environment interaction for spontaneous mutations? We studied the fitness effects of 25 generations of accumulated spontaneous mutations in Arabidopsis thaliana in two geographically widely separated field environments, in Michigan and Virginia. At both sites, mean total fitness of mutation accumulation lines exceeded that of the ancestors, contrary to the expected decrease in the mean due to new mutations but in accord with prior work on these MA lines. We observed genotype–environment interactions in the fitness effects of new mutations, such that the effects of mutations in Michigan were a poor predictor of their effects in Virginia and vice versa. In particular, mutational variance for fitness was much larger in Virginia compared to Michigan. This strong genotype–environment interaction would increase the amount of genetic variation maintained by mutation‐selection balance.     

The fitness threshold model: Random environmental change alters adaptive landscapes

We used a probabilistic optimization model to explore the joint evolutionary effects of random phenotypic and environmental variation. Two forms of environmental noise were defined in which the optimal phenotype remained constant but all organisms experienced either the same proportionate or the same absolute fitness gains and losses. There was no evolutionary effect of proportionate fitness fluctuations. In contrast, the optimal genotype varied with absolute fitness fluctuations, despite the environmental effect being phenotype-independent. We refer to such phenotype-independent fluctuation in absolute fitness as the fitness threshold model, because shared fitness effects determine the zero-fitness points (i.e. the baseline) on an intrinsic fitness function. Thus, environmental effects that are unrelated to a focal trait can cause peak shifts in the genetic optimum for the trait. Changes in the fitness threshold not only changed peak locations, but also altered the slopes defining the peaks, and so should alter the rate of evolution towards optima. This model pertains to evolution in any system, unless there is no phenotypic or environmental variance, or the selection function and distribution of phenotypic error assume similar shapes. Our results have many basic and applied implications for topics such as the maintenance of genetic variation, the canalization of development and the management of natural populations.     

Evolutionary rescue by compensatory mutations is constrained by genomic and environmental backgrounds

Since deleterious mutations may be rescued by secondary mutations during evolution, compensatory evolution could identify genetic solutions leading to therapeutic targets. Here, we tested this hypothesis and examined whether these solutions would be universal or would need to be adapted to one's genetic and environmental makeups. We performed experimental evolutionary rescue in a yeast disease model for the Wiskott–Aldrich syndrome in two genetic backgrounds and carbon sources. We found that multiple aspects of the evolutionary rescue outcome depend on the genotype, the environment, or a combination thereof. Specifically, the compensatory mutation rate and type, the molecular rescue mechanism, the genetic target, and the associated fitness cost varied across contexts. The course of compensatory evolution is therefore highly contingent on the initial conditions in which the deleterious mutation occurs. In addition, these results reveal biologically favored therapeutic targets for the Wiskott–Aldrich syndrome, including the target of an unrelated clinically approved drug. Our results experimentally illustrate the importance of epistasis and environmental evolutionary constraints that shape the adaptive landscape and evolutionary rate of molecular networks.     

Evolutionary genetics of maternal effects

Maternal genetic effects (MGEs), where genes expressed by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are important sources of phenotypic diversity in a myriad of organisms. We use a single‐locus model to examine how MGEs contribute patterns of heritable and nonheritable variation and influence evolutionary dynamics in randomly mating and inbreeding populations. We elucidate the influence of MGEs by examining the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship, which determines how MGEs affect evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on offspring phenotypes. This approach reveals important results that are not apparent from classic quantitative genetic treatments of MGEs. We show that additive and dominance MGEs make different contributions to evolutionary dynamics and patterns of variation, which are differentially affected by inbreeding. Dominance MGEs make the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship frequency dependent, resulting in the appearance of negative frequency‐dependent selection, while additive MGEs contribute a component of parent‐of‐origin dependent variation. Inbreeding amplifies the contribution of MGEs to the additive genetic variance and, therefore enhances their evolutionary response. Considering evolutionary dynamics of allele frequency change on an adaptive landscape, we show that this landscape differs from the mean fitness surface, and therefore, under some condition, fitness peaks can exist but not be “available” to the evolving population.     

Latitudinal and voltinism compensation shape thermal reaction norms for growth rate

Latitudinal variation in thermal reaction norms of key fitness traits may inform about the response of populations to climate warming, yet their adaptive nature and evolutionary potential are poorly known. We assessed the contribution of quantitative genetic, neutral genetic and environmental effects to thermal reaction norms of growth rate for populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Among populations, reaction norms differed primarily in elevation, suggesting that time constraints associated with shorter growth seasons in univoltine, high-latitude as well as multivoltine, low-latitude populations selected for faster growth rates. Phenotypic divergence among populations is consistent with selection rather than drift as Q(ST) was greater than F(ST) in all cases. Q(ST) estimates increased with experimental temperature and were influenced by genotype by environment interactions. Substantial additive genetic variation for growth rate in all populations suggests that evolution of trait means in different environments is not constrained. Heritability of growth rates was higher at high temperature, driven by increased genetic rather than environmental variance. While environment-specific nonadditive effects also may contribute to heritability differences among temperatures, maternal effects did not play a significant role (where these could be accounted for). Genotype by environment interactions strongly influenced the adaptive potential of populations, and our results suggest the potential for microevolution of thermal reaction norms in each of the studied populations. In summary, the observed latitudinal pattern in growth rates is adaptive and results from a combination of latitudinal and voltinism compensation. Combined with the evolutionary potential of thermal reaction norms, this may affect populations' ability to respond to future climate warming.     

Developmental and genetic effects on behavioral and life‐history traits in a field cricket

A fundamental goal of evolutionary ecology is to identify the sources underlying trait variation on which selection can act. Phenotypic variation will be determined by both genetic and environmental factors, and adaptive phenotypic plasticity is expected when organisms can adjust their phenotypes to match environmental cues. Much recent research interest has focused on the relative importance of environmental and genetic factors on the expression of behavioral traits, in particular, and how they compare with morphological and life‐history traits. Little research to date examines the effect of development on the expression of heritable variation in behavioral traits, such as boldness and activity. We tested for genotype, environment, and genotype‐by‐environment differences in body mass, development time, boldness, and activity, using developmental density treatments combined with a quantitative genetic design in the sand field cricket (Gryllus firmus). Similar to results from previous work, animals reared at high densities were generally smaller and took longer to mature, and body mass and development time were moderately heritable. In contrast, neither boldness nor activity responded to density treatments, and they were not heritable. The only trait that showed significant genotype‐by‐environment differences was development time. It is possible that adaptive behavioral plasticity is not evident in this species because of the highly variable social environments it naturally experiences. Our results illustrate the importance of validating the assumption that behavioral phenotype reflects genetic patterns and suggest questions about the role of environmental instability in trait variation and heritability.     

Genotype by environment interactions in winter survival in red deer

1. The extent to which environmental heterogeneity interacts with genetic hetero geneity to affect individual fitness within populations has the potential to affect the dynamics of natural populations and the amount of genetic variation maintained in natural populations, yet is a relatively poorly investigated topic in either ecology or evolutionary biology.
2. Many individual-based studies are precluded from such investigations by the practical problems of measuring heritability of traits affecting fitness and the difficulties of experimental manipulation of the study population. One way of demonstrating how commonly genotype by environmental interactions affect fitness, though not their overall importance in determining fitness, is to investigate fitness in a population subdivided by genotype at one or more marker loci.
3. We analyse data on calf winter survival from a population of red deer from the Isle of Rum, Scotland. Data on individual survival, environmental fluctuations and genotype at 13 loci were collected from 1982 to 1994.
4. We found associations between survival over the first winter of life and calf genotype at two out of three allozyme loci and five out of 10 microsatellite loci. All of the results remained significant under randomization tests. Other genotypes that initially appeared to have an association with survival were rejected when bootstrapped, usually due to insufficient data or anomalies in the data.
5. Our results suggest that associations between fitness and genotype are common. Five out of the seven associations found involved interactions with environmental variables. Four of these showed density-dependent selection with different genotypes showing high survival at high population size compared to low population size and one interacted with autumn rainfall. In a sixth case, genotype interacted with sex.     

The phenotypic variance within plastic traits under migration-mutation-selection balance

How phenotypic variances of quantitative traits are influenced by the heterogeneity in environment is an important problem in evolutionary biology. In this study, both genetic and environmental variances in a plastic trait under migration-mutation-stabilizing selection are investigated. For this, a linear reaction norm is used to approximate the mapping from genotype to phenotype, and a population of clonal inheritance is assumed to live in a habitat consisting of many patches in which environmental conditions vary among patches and generations. The life cycle is assumed to be selection-reproduction-mutation-migration. Analysis shows that phenotypic plasticity is adaptive if correlations between the optimal phenotype and environment have become established in both space and/or time, and it is thus possible to maintain environmental variance (V(E)) in the plastic trait. Under the special situation of no mutation but maximum migration such that separate patches form an effective single-site habitat, the genotype that maximizes the geometric mean fitness will come to fixation and thus genetic variance (V(G)) cannot be maintained. With mutation and/or restricted migration, V(G) can be maintained and it increases with mutation rate but decreases with migration rate; whereas VE is little affected by them. Temporal variation in environmental quality increases V(G) while its spatial variance decreases V(G). Variation in environmental conditions may decrease the environmental variance in the plastic trait.     

Reverse evolution of fitness in Drosophila melanogaster

Abstract The evolution of fitness is central to evolutionary theory, yet few experimental systems allow us to track its evolution in genetically and environmentally relevant contexts. Reverse evolution experiments allow the study of the evolutionary return to ancestral phenotypic states, including fitness. This in turn permits well‐defined tests for the dependence of adaptation on evolutionary history and environmental conditions. In the experiments described here, 20 populations of heterogeneous evolutionary histories were returned to their common ancestral environment for 50 generations, and were then compared with both their immediate differentiated ancestors and populations which had remained in the ancestral environment. One measure of fitness returned to ancestral levels to a greater extent than other characters did. The phenotypic effects of reverse evolution were also contingent on previous selective history. Moreover, convergence to the ancestral state was highly sensitive to environmental conditions. The phenotypic plasticity of fecundity, a character directly selected for, evolved during the experimental time frame. Reverse evolution appears to force multiple, diverged populations to converge on a common fitness state through different life‐history and genetic changes.     

Intrinsic noise and the design of the genetic machinery

Darwinian theory envisages 'selection pressure' as a stress imposed on the genotype by the environment. However, noise in the replicative and translational mechanisms in itself imposes a significant 'pressure' on the adaptive fitness of the organism. We propose that the biosphere has been shaped by both extrinsic (environmental) and intrinsic (noise-generated) factors. Because noise has been a remorseless and ever-present background to the evolutionary process, adaptations to this intrinsic pressure include not only a variety of familiar genetic mechanisms but also many anatomical and life-style characteristics that focus on the transmission of information between generations.     

Evolutionary constraints of warning signals: A genetic trade‐off between the efficacy of larval and adult warning coloration can maintain variation in signal expression

To predict evolutionary responses of warning signals under selection, we need to determine the inheritance pattern of the signals, and how they are genetically correlated with other traits contributing to fitness. Furthermore, protective coloration often undergoes remarkable changes within an individual's lifecycle, requiring us to quantify the genetic constraints of adaptive coloration across all the relevant life stages. Based on a 12 generation pedigree with > 11,000 individuals of the wood tiger moth (Arctia plantaginis), we show that high primary defense as a larva (large warning signal) results in weaker defenses as adult (less efficient warning color), due to the negative genetic correlation between the efficacy of larval and adult warning coloration. However, production of effective warning coloration as a larva did not incur any life‐history costs and was positively genetically correlated with reproductive output. These results provide novel insights into the evolutionary constraints on protective coloration in animals, and explain the maintenance of variation in the signal expression despite the strong directional selection by predators. By analyzing the genetic and environmental effects on warning signal and life‐history traits in all relevant life stages, we can accurately determine the mechanisms shaping the evolutionary responses of phenotypic traits under different selection environments.     

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one‐to‐one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual‐based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many‐to‐one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.     

Is there plasticity in developmental instability? The effect of daily thermal fluctuations in an ectotherm

Diversified bet‐hedging (DBH) by production of within‐genotype phenotypic variance may evolve to maximize fitness in stochastic environments. Bet‐hedging is generally associated with parental effects, but phenotypic variation may also develop throughout life via developmental instability (DI). This opens for the possibility of a within‐generation mechanism creating DBH during the lifetime of individuals. If so, DI could in fact be a plastic trait itself; if a fluctuating environment indicates uncertainty about future conditions, sensing such fluctuations could trigger DI as a DBH response. However, this possibility has received little empirical attention. Here, we test whether fluctuating environments may elicit such a response in the clonally reproducing crustacean Daphnia magna. Specifically, we exposed genetically identical individuals to two environments of different thermal stability (stable vs. pronounced daily realistic temperature fluctuations) and tested for effects on DI in body mass and metabolic rate shortly before maturation. Furthermore, we also estimated the genetic variation in DI. Interestingly, fluctuating temperatures did not affect body mass, but metabolic rate decreased. We found no evidence for plasticity in DI in response to environmental fluctuations. The lack of plasticity was common to all genotypes, and for both traits studied. However, we found considerable evolvability for DI, which implies a general evolutionary potential for DBH under selection for increased phenotypic variance.     

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate.