Movement,impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

Synthesis Prediction and management of species responses to climate change is an urgent but relatively young research field. Therefore, climate change ecology must by necessity borrow from other fields. Invasion ecology is particularly well‐suited to informing climate change ecology because both invasion ecology and climate change ecology address the trajectories of rapidly changing novel systems. Here we outline the broad range of active research questions in climate change ecology where research from invasion ecology can stimulate advances. We present ideas for how concepts, case‐studies and methodology from invasion ecology can be adapted to improve prediction and management of species responses to climate change. A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: 1) how will species distributions respond to climate change? 2) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? And 3) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait‐based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life‐history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g. spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of ‘when to intervene?‘ and ‘what to do?‘ which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.     

Biodiversity change and ecosystem function in tropical forests

Recent debate about the fate of tropical forests has focused attention on the consequences of forest degradation and fragmentation for their diversity and composition, and the likely functional consequences of these changes. Existing data suggest that the responses of tropical forest plant and animal communities to habitat change are idiosyncratic, although a few consistent patterns are emerging. In particular, it is apparent that conventional diversity and richness metrics may not adequately represent anthropogenic changes to community structure and organisation. A widespread trend is towards ‘biotic homogenisation’: while disturbed forests may often have an equal or even a greater number of species than undisturbed forests, these species are typically drawn from a restricted pool; and endemic, restricted-range or habitat-specialist species are most likely to decline or go extinct. Similarly, studies have documented marked changes in the structure of food webs, even where the richness and diversity of component species remains little altered. What are the likely consequences of such changes for the important ecosystem functions performed by biodiversity, such as pollination and decomposition? Much of the extensive literature on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function is of limited utility for answering this question, because experimental designs do not consider species-specific contributions to ecosystem function, abundance, degree of redundancy, or extinction-proneness; and few such studies have been carried out under realistic levels of diversity under field conditions, particularly in high-diversity ecosystems such as tropical forests. Furthermore, the focus has almost always been on richness as the explanatory variable, rather than the composition or structural attributes of communities. I briefly review recent papers that have begun to tackle these important issues, and consider how future research might help us understand the functional consequences of realistic changes to species composition and food-web ‘biostructure’ in tropical forests.     

Ecological consequences through responses of plant and soil communities to changing winter climate

Community processes are now undergoing substantial reconfiguration because of climate change. Although the effects of climate change on ecosystems are currently a major concern, the issues tightly associated with winter climate change have been underrepresented. Given the importance of winter climate variables and events for determining the spatial distribution of communities and their phenological and physiological responses, and the functional roles of each species, all of which are expected to substantially influence community dis/re-assemble in the future, this review focuses on the ecological responses and consequences of terrestrial communities to changing winter climate. In particular, the effects on processes supported by biological interactions are largely undetermined. In this context, focusing on plant–soil feedback as a major interactive multi-system is worthwhile; these interactions can be disentangled through careful evaluation of the functional roles of organisms involved in the feedback (i.e., plants and soil organisms). The underlying mechanisms are indeed complex because direct (i.e., changes in physical conditions) and indirect pathways (i.e., plant-mediated influences on soil-organisms and vice versa) from winter climate change influence the functionality of future ecosystems. To face these issues, the framework of response–effect-traits deserves research priority since this can define community re-organization as the accumulated responses of individual species, which determines the stability and performance of ecosystem functioning. Thus, research that quantifies functional responses and roles of organisms under a changing climate will continue to be essential for the issues of winter climate change, which may become more serious and significant in the near future.     

土壤微生物对气候变暖和大气N沉降的响应

气候变暖和大气N沉降是近一、二十年来人们非常关注的全球变化现象,它们所带来的一系列生态问题已成为全球变化研究的重要议题。它们不仅影响地上植被生长和群落组成,还直接或间接地影响土壤微生物过程,而土壤微生物对此做出的响应正是生态系统反馈过程中非常重要的环节。该文分别从气候变化对土壤微生物的影响(土壤微生物量、微生物活动和微生物群落结构)和土壤微生物对气候变化的响应(凋落物分解、养分利用与循环以及养分的固持与流失)两个角度,综述近期土壤微生物对气候变暖和大气N沉降响应与适应的研究进展。气候变暖和大气N沉降对土壤微生物的影响更多地反映在微生物群落的结构和功能上,而土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构的变化又会通过改变凋落物分解、养分利用和C、N循环等重要的土壤生态系统功能和过程做出响应,形成正向或负向反馈,加强或削弱气候变化给整个陆地生态系统带来的影响。然而,到目前为止土壤微生物的响应对陆地生态系统产生的最终结果仍是未决的关键性问题。     

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.     

Climatic Effects on Planning Behavior

What mechanism links climate change and social change? Palaeoanthropological analysis of human remains suggests that abrupt climate change is linked to societal restructuring, but it has been challenging to reliably identify the exact mechanisms underlying this relationship. Here we identify one potential mechanism that can link climate to behavior change, and underpins many of the reported findings on social restructuring. Specifically, we show that daily weather is linked to human planning behavior, and this effect is moderated by climate. Our results demonstrate that as weather gets colder, humans increase their planning in cold regions and decrease planning in warm regions. Since planning has previously been linked to group efficiency, cooperation, and societal organization, our work suggests planning is one mechanism that can link climate change to societal restructuring.     

An overview of the ecology,management and conservation of Australia’s temperate woodlands

Summary Australia’s temperate woodlands are environments of cultural and ecological importance and significant repositories of Australia’s biodiversity. Despite this, they have been heavily cleared, much remaining vegetation is in poor condition and many species of plants and animals are threatened. Here, we provide a brief overview of key issues relating to the ecology, management and policy directions for temperate woodlands, by identifying and discussing ten themes. When addressing issues relating to the conservation and management of temperate woodlands, spatial scale is very important, as are the needs for a temporal perspective and a complementary understanding of pattern and process. The extent of landscape change in many woodland environments means that woodland patches, linear networks and paddock trees are critical elements, and that there can be pervasive effects from ‘problem’ native species such as the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala). These consequences of landscape change highlight the challenge to undertake active management and restoration as well as effective monitoring and long‐term data collection. In developing approaches for conservation and management of temperate woodlands, it is essential to move our thinking beyond reserves to woodland conservation and management on private land, and recognise the criticality of cross‐disciplinary linkages. We conclude by identifying some emerging issues in woodland conservation and management. These include the need to further develop non‐traditional approaches to conservation particularly off‐reserve management; the value of documenting approaches and programmes that demonstrably lead to effective change; new lessons that can be learned from intact examples of temperate woodlands; and the need to recognise how climate change and human population growth will interact with conservation and management of temperate woodlands in future decades.     

Out-of-school experience categories influencing interest in biology of secondary school students by gender: exploration on an Abu Dhabi sample

This study employed the international Relevance of Science Education questionnaire to survey the interest in biology and the out-of-school experiences of Abu Dhabi secondary school students (median age 17, mean age 17.53 and mode age of 16) in the third semester of 2014. It included 3100 participants. An exploratory factor analysis was used to categorise the items for both interest in biology and out-of-school experience. Ten interest in biology and 12 out-of-school experience factors were extracted. The summated means for each factor indicated that ‘health and fitness’ and ‘disease control’ enjoyed highest interests among students. For out-of-school experiences, the two factors of ‘digital applications’ and ‘medical treatment’ received the highest scores. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that all factors for both interest in biology and out-of-school experience exhibited significant differences between boys and girls. More girls than boys were interested in disease control, reproduction (human biology), alternative science, health and fitness, zoology, and applied cosmetic biology. No significant differences were observed for the remaining five other categories. Furthermore, analysis of variance revealed significant differences between boys and girls with regard to individual items comprising each of the factors. The highest correlations were between the two factors of out-of-school experiences of ‘the natural world’ and ‘learning through observation’ and the interest in biology factor related to ‘plant and animal farming and agriculture’. Results suggested that more emphasis must be placed on students’ out-of-school experience and their engagement in informal learning in contextual outdoor environments to enhance their interest in learning more about biology and the living environment in general.     

Empathy and Effortful Control Effects on Early Adolescents’ Aggression: When Do Students’ Perceptions of Their School Climate Matter?

Guided by the social emotional learning framework, this study examined whether early adolescents’ social awareness (empathic concern, perspective taking) and self-management (effortful control) would uniquely contribute to early adolescents’ subsequent forms of aggression, and whether perceptions of their school climate (friction, cohesion, competition, satisfaction with classes) would moderate those associations. Participants were 479 10- to 14-year old students (54% female; 78% European American) who completed the first wave of a survey in sixth and seventh grades and the second wave 1 year later. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that across gender, empathic concern was the only competency to reduce subsequent overt and relational aggression. None of the school climate perceptions made unique contributions to aggression, nor did they show protective functions. Rather, several instances of cumulative advantage were observed, whereby positive school climate perceptions only reduced aggression for students with high levels of empathic concern. Unexpectedly, boys’ perceived cohesion contributed to overt aggression if they reported high levels of effortful control.     

Other Dark Sides of Resilience: Politics and Power in Community-Based Efforts to Strengthen Resilience

ABSTRACT

Oceanic people and places are increasingly labelled as either ‘resilient’ or ‘vulnerable’ to disasters and climate change. Resilience is often described in disaster discourse as a strategy designed to overcome vulnerability by helping communities to ‘bounce back’ in the wake of ‘natural’ disasters. Using ethnographic research conducted with Community Disaster and Climate Change Committees (CDCs) in Vanuatu in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Pam, this paper seeks to problematise disaster responses that see the ‘community’ as a space to be acted upon by outsiders, or where people will respond in a unified way to the challenges of rebuilding after disaster. Using political ecology framings this paper critiques the ideas of resilience that appear entrenched in community-based disaster and climate change adaptation discourse and practice in Oceania. Rather than presupposing resilience or vulnerability, this paper details the dispersal and distribution power and agency amongst individual actors and groups that either supported or manipulated, the distribution of goods by Community Disaster Committees. In this way, it moves beyond the limitations of conceptual framings of resilience in disaster management and climate change into a more considered appraisal of power, by exploring what James Ferguson has termed ‘the politics of distribution’ in the context of disaster.     

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well‐studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate‐change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between‐researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.     

Society and Environment in the East Mediterranean ca 300–1800 CE. Problems of Resilience,Adaptation and Transformation. Introductory Essay

This introductory article sets out some issues associated with the concept and theorization of ‘resilience’. We describe some historical contexts in which theories of societal resilience can be usefully deployed; we offer some challenges to critiques of the validity and usefulness of Formal Resilience Theory (Theory of Adaptive Change). Resilience, adaptation, and transformation are complex issues, and while we cannot tell the whole story through the lens of environmental change, we can integrate the various categories of evidence to attempt to focus in on where and how climate change might impact an imperial system. Using an example from Byzantine Anatolia we examine the most vulnerable segments, such as subsistence systems, with respect to the agency of elite managers and the role of religious identity. Thus we can throw light on how interconnected environmental and social factors might exert pressure on other sub-systems and thus the system as a whole.     

Thermal acclimation in widespread heterotrophic soil microbes

Respiration by plants and microorganisms is primarily responsible for mediating carbon exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. Climate warming has the potential to influence the activity of these organisms, regulating exchanges between carbon pools. Physiological ‘down‐regulation’ of warm‐adapted species (acclimation) could ameliorate the predicted respiratory losses of soil carbon under climate change scenarios, but unlike plants and symbiotic microbes, the existence of this phenomenon in heterotrophic soil microbes remains controversial. Previous studies using complex soil microbial communities are unable to distinguish physiological acclimation from other community‐scale adjustments. We explored the temperature‐sensitivity of individual saprotrophic basidiomycete fungi growing in agar, showing definitively that these widespread heterotrophic fungi can acclimate to temperature. In almost all cases, the warm‐acclimated individuals had lower growth and respiration rates at intermediate temperatures than cold‐acclimated isolates. Inclusion of such microbial physiological responses to warming is essential to enhance the robustness of global climate‐ecosystem carbon models.     

Metacognitive inquiry activities for instructing the central dogma concept: ‘button code’ and ‘beaded bracelet making’

ABSTRACT

The central dogma of biology is difficult to learn because its microscopic processes cannot be visualized. This study aimed to devise two inquiry activities: ‘Button Code’ and ‘Beaded Bracelet Making,’ involving the concepts of DNA replication and protein synthesis based on the Metacognitive Learning Cycle (MLC) for students, and to explore the effectiveness of concept learning of the central dogma, how students’ metacognition may be expressed, and students’ perceptions of their inquiry performance. We developed a ‘Concept journal’ including metacognitive scaffolds, and employed the ‘Central Dogma Achievement Test’ as a tool for the above purpose. A total of 18 junior high school students participated in this inquiry course instructed by two of the authors. The results showed that students’ achievement performance was significantly improved on the whole, the students’ metacognition was expressed during the process of inquiry with scaffolding, and most students gave positive responses about their learning performance. According to the results, this inquiry course could develop students’ comprehension of the central dogma concept, and give students opportunities to practice metacognition that might lead to effective learning in inquiry activities. The implications and expandability of this course are discussed.     

Climate response,migrational lag,and pollen representation: The problems posed by Rhododendron and Acer

Views have changed as to the relative importance of climate change and human activity on the composition of Holocene temperate forest. The ‘climate school’ maintains that temperate arboreal taxa responded swiftly to changes in Holocene climate, irrespective of dispersal mechanism, with no evidence for migrational lag or for human influence; taxa moved individualistically according to their climate response. This paper tests these tenets in two case studies. The present‐day distributions of Rhododendron and Acer in Europe are compared with earlier records, and discussed in the context of migrational lag and pollen‐climate response. Distributional data emphasise the importance of humans as a vector in aiding the spread of both Rhododendron ponticum and some Acer species in the very late Holocene. Arguably, the species concerned have exhibited extreme migrational lag; they re‐open the question as to whether the natural distributions of temperate arboreal species are in equilibrium with climate.     

Integrating Homo sapiens into ecological models: Imperatives of climate change

In the opening lecture at a 2013 Banff International Research Station (BIRS) workshop on the impact of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions, Henri Berestycki (École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales) asked a crucial question: Can a species keep pace with a changing climate? “Species” in this context was generally understood to be all living things on Earth (except humans). But mounting scientific evidence suggests that it is time to pose the parallel question: Can Homo sapiens keep pace with a changing climate? Furthermore, should we merely “keep pace”, or should we strive to get ahead and then do our utmost to stop any further climate change?In this paper we document the very real potential for climate change to have devastating consequences before the end of this century. The urgency of the situation calls for concerted action by anyone who understands the problem, and mathematical ecologists are uniquely trained to contribute to such efforts. We ask modellers to deliberately incorporate the species H. sapiens into their modelling work, and offer suggestions as to how this might be done. Ultimately modellers must seek ways to provide guidance to citizens and policy-makers as we all wrestle with the most important existential threat of our time.     

The spectre of Godlessness: Making sense of secularity

‘What does it mean to say that we live in a secular age?’ asks the philosopher Charles Taylor from a Christian (Catholic) perspective. This paper critiques key aspects of the way he seeks to answer the question, doing so from a methodologically agnostic anthropological standpoint. It focuses on three key elements of his argument: his construal of the problem of immanence, his account of secularisation and his treatment of science as an (inadequate) antidote to religion. The critique contains within it the ingredients for an alternative, anthropologically grounded approach to secularity, secularism and secularisation. In this spirit, it moves towards examining actually existing secularity as a syncretic phenomenon that is, in significant respects, definitive of modernity.     

Role of school climate and personality in the development of Czech adolescents’ political self-efficacy

This study examined the effects of school climate (open classroom and positive student relationships) and personality dispositions (shyness and need for cognition) on adolescents’ political self-efficacy. Data were collected in 2014 from 1,954 Czech ninth- and tenth-graders (mean age?=?15.60). A multilevel analysis showed that school-level political self-efficacy predicted self-efficacy for local politics. However, schools and classrooms were rather homogeneous in terms of students’ mean political self-efficacy and students’ self-reported acquisition of civic skills at school. Hence, school characteristics had only limited associations with adolescents’ political self-efficacy. At the same time, students’ political efficacy had a considerable association with lower shyness and higher need for cognition. These results suggest that the development of political efficacy at school goes beyond simple general influences of school environment and individual differences between students must be considered.