Multiple Recruitment Limitation Causes Arrested Succession in Mediterranean Cork Oak Systems

Lack of tree regeneration and persistency of species-poor shrublands represent a growing problem across Mediterranean evergreen oak forests. What constrains forest regeneration is poorly understood, and restoration attempts have been largely unsuccessful. We assessed the contribution of four different mechanisms of tree recruitment limitation (that is, source, dispersal, germination, and establishment) in a cork oak (Quercus suber) system in southern Portugal. Using a combination of field studies and experiments, we quantified seed production, seed removal and dispersal, seed survival and germination, seedling establishment and survival, as well as cork oak natural regeneration for the three dominant vegetation types in this system (Cistus ladanifer shrubland, oak forest, and oak savanna). We found that all four forms of cork oak recruitment limitation were significantly more severe in shrublands than in oak forests and savannas, so that oak seedling recruitment in shrubland was impeded in multiple ways. Our results explain why transitions from shrublands to oak savannas and forests are extremely difficult, and that the release from arrested succession in this system requires the simultaneous relief of multiple constraints on recruitment limitation in the early life history of oaks. These results have important implications for the restoration and conservation of Mediterranean oak systems.     

Fire in tropical dry forests: corticolous lichens as indicators of recent ecological changes in Thailand

The distribution of lichens in lowland deciduous and evergreen forests in Thailand is used to interpret recent changes in the distribution of these forests. The role of fire in changing the forest structure, microclimate and species content is discussed. Characteristic corticolous lichen communities of dry deciduous and moist evergreen forests are described, as well as changes in the composition of the flora following fire events. Where frequent fires have altered the forest rates of change in forest type are suggested using lichen data from randomly selected trees in forest plots, and growth rates of sampled species in quadrats. The disjunct nature of the lichen floras in lowland deciduous and evergreen forests is discussed, their origin and use in interpreting changes in forest types in monsoon climates over long periods of time.     

Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change

Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer, northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak–hickory forests using the process‐based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2–3.3 °C by 2041–70 and by 3.0–5.2 °C by 2071–99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7–9.5% and 6.4–11.4%, respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71–100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak–hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0–2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100–200 km) and will increase in area by 149–431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak–hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071–99. In our simulations, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests, reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests, and result in large increases of mixed oak–hickory forest in New England.     

Ecological behavior of Quercus suber and Quercus ilex inferred by topographic wetness index (TWI)

The ecological behaviors of a network of pure evergreen oak stands (Quercus suber L. and Quercus ilex L.) in the Central-Western Mediterranean Basin were investigated toward climatic and edaphic factors implemented with the application of topographic wetness index (TWI). A Categorical Principal Component Analysis (Catpca) using climatic and soil physico-chemical parameters was performed on 23 cork oak and holm oak pure stands with the aim to understand better the effectiveness of TWI for characterizing soil ecology of the two species. Catpca pointed out that, although cork oak and holm oak are able to growth in similar Mediterranean conditions, they show different behaviors in terms of needs and tolerance to soil water content. TWI confirmed such results at local scale, allowing highlighting some interesting features of the species differential ecology. Although both species confirmed to be drought-tolerant, the heliophilous cork oak revealed to dominate the landscape on wettest soils with high TWI values—indicating the capacity to tolerate stresses due to periods of waterlogging—, while the shade-tolerant holm oak prevails for low-medium TWI values—drier and mesophilous sites. Despite the application of TWI to vegetation science and ecology is relatively recent, results are encouraging and suggest considering this user-friendly and synthetic index in ecological investigations and modeling.     

Estimation of Mediterranean forest transpiration and photosynthesis through the use of an ecosystem simulation model driven by remotely sensed data

Aim This paper investigates the use of an ecosystem simulation model, FOREST‐BGC, to estimate the main ecophysiological processes (transpiration and photosynthesis) of Mediterranean coastal forest areas using remotely sensed data. Location Model testing was carried out at two protected forest sites in central Italy, one of which was covered by Turkey oak (Circeo National Park) and the other by holm‐oak (Castelporziano Estate). Methods At both sites, transpiration and photosynthesis measurements were collected in the field during the growing seasons over a four‐year period (1999 and 2001 for the Turkey oak; 1997, 1999 and 2000 for the holm‐oak). Calibration of the model was obtained through combining information derived from ground measurements and remotely sensed data. In particular, remote sensing estimates of the Leaf Area Index derived from 1 × 1‐km NOAA AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data were used to improve the adaptation of the model to local forest conditions. Results The results indicated different strategies regarding water use efficiency, ‘water spending’ for Turkey oak and ‘water saving’ for holm‐oak. The water use efficiency for the holm‐oak was consistently higher than that for the Turkey oak and the relationship between VPD and WUE for the holm‐oak showed a higher coefficient of determination (R² = 0.9238). Comparisons made between the field measurements of transpiration and photosynthesis and the model estimates showed that the integration procedure used for the deciduous oak forest was effective, but that there is a need for further studies regarding the sclerophyllous evergreen forest. In particular, for Turkey oak the simulations of transpiration yielded very good results, with errors lower than 0.3 mm H₂O/day, while the simulation accuracy for photosynthesis was lower. In the case of holm‐oak, transpiration was markedly overestimated for all days considered, while the simulations of photosynthesis were very accurate. Main conclusions Overall, the approach offers interesting operational possibilities for the monitoring of Mediterranean forest ecosystems, particularly in view of the availability of new satellite sensors with a higher spatial and temporal resolution, which have been launched in recent years.     

The middle Miocene palynoflora and palaeoenvironments of Eskihisar (Yatağan basin,south‐western Anatolia): a combined LM and SEM investigation

We investigated a palynological section from middle Miocene sediments at Eskihisar (south‐western Anatolia) to establish biogeographic links of the palynoflora and to infer the palaeoenvironment. Four algal palynomorphs, nine spore taxa, eight gymnosperms, three monocots and 67 dicot pollen types were encountered and investigated using the ‘single grain method’ that combines light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Two pollen zones reflect different phases of basin development. Zonal vegetation remained fairly stable across the section and reflects heterogeneous environments including broad‐leaved deciduous forest, subtropical forest and sclerophyllous and semi‐evergreen oak forest. Conifers were accessory elements in the broad‐leaved deciduous forest communities and replaced these at higher elevations. Some herbaceous taxa (Plumbaginaceae) indicate scattered occurrences of sandy and/or rocky soils. Biogeographic affinities are general Northern Hemisphere, North American and East Asian, as also suggested by the macrofossil record. Only two taxa provide potential biogeographic links with the African flora. This suggests that biome shifts of plant taxa between African subtropical/tropical biomes and Anatolian (western Eurasian) temperate forests and shrublands may have been rare in the middle Miocene.     

Assessing the resilience of Mediterranean holm oaks to disturbances using selective thinning

Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, likely reducing growth and increasing mortality of holm oaks (Quercus ilex), one of the most abundant species of Mediterranean forests. In water-limited systems such as those of the Mediterranean, carbon allocation patterns strongly favour belowground accumulation, especially in large subterranean structures called lignotubers. The resilience of these forests depends largely on the replenishment rate of these carbon reserves after disturbances. An experimental thinning, with two intensities (removal of 40% and 80% of basal area), was performed in 1992 in a holm oak forest at the Prades Experimental Complex of Catchments (NE Spain). In 2002, a second thinning was carried out in subplots within the former experimental 0.5 ha plots. Samples from the lignotubers of holm oak trees were analyzed for starch, and both mobile and immobile chemical components, in order to assess the resilience of holm oaks to repeated disturbances. Our results show that after 10 years, starch stocks in the lignotubers have only recovered to half their former values. Removing 40% of the basal area instead of 80% is suggested to be the better managing option for this kind of forests.     

Topography modulates climate sensitivity of multidecadal trends of holm oak decline

Forest decline events have increased worldwide over the last decades being holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) one of the tree species with the most worrying trends across Europe. Since this is one of the tree species with the southernmost distribution within the European continent, its vulnerability to climate change is a phenomenon of enormous ecological importance. Previous research identified drought and soil pathogens as the main causes behind holm oak decline. However, despite tree health loss is a multifactorial phenomenon where abiotic and biotic factors interact in time and space, there are some abiotic factors whose influence has been commonly overlooked. Here, we evaluate how land use (forests versus savannas), topography, and climate extremes jointly determine the spatiotemporal patterns of holm oak defoliation trends over almost three decades (1987–2014) in Spain, where holm oak represents the 25% of the national forested area. We found an increasing defoliation trend in 119 out of the total 134 holm oak plots evaluated, being this defoliation trend significantly higher in forests compared with savannas. Moreover, we have detected that the interaction between topography (which covariates with the land use) and summer precipitation anomalies explains trends of holm oak decline across the Mediterranean region. While a higher occurrence of dry summers increases defoliation trends in steeper terrains where forests dominate, an inverse relationship was found in flatter terrains where savannas are mainly located. These opposite relationships suggest different causal mechanisms behind decline. Whereas hydric stress is likely to occur in steeper terrains where soil water holding capacity is limited, soil waterlogging usually occurs in flatter terrains what increases tree vulnerability to soil pathogens. Our results contribute to the growing evidence of the influence of local topography on forest resilience and could assist in the identification of potential tree decline hotspots and its main causes over the Mediterranean region.     

桂西地区南亚热带落叶栎林群落组成及物种多样性研究北大核心CSCD

落叶栎林是桂西地区南亚热带的典型次生林,也是该区域落叶阔叶林的重要群系组。该研究采用典型样方法对桂西地区落叶栎林群落进行调查,分析了该区域落叶栎林群落的物种组成、区系成分、物种多样性特征及其与地形因子的关系,为桂西地区南亚热带植物多样性保护与恢复提供依据。结果显示:(1)研究区落叶栎林群落维管束植物共计269种,隶属80科178属。(2)种子植物区系以热带成分为主,同时表现出一定程度的温带过渡性质。(3)聚类分析表明,调查的落叶栎林群落可分为云南波罗栎林、栓皮栎林、白栎林、麻栎林4种林分类型,其中以白栎林群落的物种多样性最高,且灌木层的物种多样性显著高于乔木层和草本层。(4)RDA分析显示,落叶栎林群落不同层次物种多样性的差异受地形因子的影响,多样性指标与经度、纬度、海拔之间具有明显的相关性(P<0.05),其中乔木层物种多样性主要与经度、纬度呈显著的相关性,灌木层物种多样性与纬度、海拔相关,草本层物种多样性与经度、纬度、海拔之间均有相关性。     

Effects of El Niño drought on seedling dynamics in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Northern Thailand

As El Niño is predicted to become stronger and more frequent in the future, it is crucial to understand how El Niño-induced droughts will affect tropical forests. Although many studies have focused on tropical rainforests, there is a paucity of studies on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), particularly in Asia, and few studies have focused on seedling dynamics, which are expected to be strongly affected by drought. Seedlings in SDTFs are generally more drought-tolerant than those in the rainforests, and the effects of El Niño-induced droughts may differ between SDTF and tropical rainforests. In this study, we explored the impact of El Niño-induced drought at an SDTF in northern Thailand by monitoring the seedling dynamics at monthly intervals for 7 years, including a period of strong El Niño. The effects were compared between two forest types in an SDTF: a deciduous dipterocarp forest (DDF), dominated by deciduous species, and an adjacent lower montane forest (LMF) with more evergreen species. El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality in both the forest types. The effect of drought was stronger in evergreen than in the deciduous species, resulting in higher mortality in the LMF during El Niño. However, El Niño increased seedling recruitment only in the DDF, mainly because of the massive recruitment of the deciduous oak, Quercus brandisiana (Fagaceae), which compensated for the mortality of seedlings in the DDF. As a result, El Niño increased seedling density in the DDF and decreased it in the LMF. This is the first long-term study to identify the differences in the impacts of El Niño on seedlings between the two forest types, and two leaf habits, evergreen and deciduous, in Southeast Asia. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter the species composition and spatial distribution of seedlings in Asian SDTFs.     

The Balearic Islands: a reservoir of cpDNA genetic variation for evergreen oaks

Aim To analyse the role of the Balearic Islands as a refuge area for evergreen Quercus (cork oak: Quercus suber L., holm oak: Q. ilex L., kermes oak: Q. coccifera L.), by using molecular, historical and palaeobotanical data. Location The Western Mediterranean Basin (Balearic Islands, eastern Iberia, Provence, Sardinia, Corsica, Sicily, Malta, Italy, Northern Africa). Methods We sampled 108 populations and used the PCR‐RFLP technique with five universal cpDNA primers to define haplotypes in the sampled populations. Diversity, differentiation parameters and spatial analysis of the populations, using a spatial version of amova , were linked to the geological history of the Western Mediterranean Basin in order to explain the present spatial pattern of the evergreen Quercus populations in the Balearics. Results Evergreen Quercus cpDNA shows a complex structure, with remnants of ancient diversity in the Balearics. Balearic populations of holm oak are related to Iberian populations, while for cork and kermes oaks, we found both Tyrrhenian and Iberian haplotypes. Main conclusions The complex spatial patterns of cpDNA in Balearic evergreen Quercus appears explicable in terms of a combination of physical (vicariance and long distance dispersal) and biological (introgressive hybridization) factors. The Balearics constitute a glacial refuge area and a reservoir of genetic variation with traces of ancient diversity from Messinian–Pliocene stages.     

Coenological research on macrofungi in evergreen oak woods in the hills near Siena (Italy)

For a mycocoenological study of macromycetes in Mediterranean evergreen forests in the Siencese province, five stands belonging to theQuercion ilicis have been observed during more than two years. The phytosociological analysis of these evergreen oak woods, situated at the limit of the geographical distribution of the alliance, reveals them as intermediate between the typical Mediterranean vegetation and the sub-Mediterranean deciduous broad-leaved forests. 181 fungal species were recognized and assigned to seven ecological groups on the basis of substratum, habitat, forest management and/or particular mycorrhizal relationship. Our results have been compared with those obtained in some European deciduous forests. Such a comparison shows the occurrence of 16 thermophilous fungal species in the Siena woods which are missing or very rare in the European deciduous forests. On the basis of our present knowledge, five of these species (Boletus lepidus, Hygrophorus dichrous, Hygrocybe nigrescens, Inocybe similis, Phellinus torulosus) may be considered as strictly tied to the evergreen oak woods. Five others, which have been reported for several European phytocoenoses, seem to be ‘preferential taxa’ of our evergreen oak woods, namely:cortinarius calochrous, C. sodagnitus, Hygrophorus arbustivus, H. russula, Lyophyllum immundum. On the whole the highest similarities have been found with the more xerothermophilous European forests (Querco-Lithospermetum andSorbo-Quercetum). The presence in theQuercus ilex woods of numerous more mesophilous fungi, some of which are widespread in beech forests, underlines the transitional nature of the phytocoenoses studied.     

A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)

Shifts in plant species and biome distribution in response to warming have been described in past climate changes. However, reported evidence of such shifts under current climate change is still scarce. By comparing current and 1945 vegetation distribution in the Montseny mountains (Catalonia, NE Spain), we report here a progressive replacement of cold‐temperate ecosystems by Mediterranean ecosystems. Beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest has shifted altitudinally upwards by ca. 70 m at the highest altitudes (1600–1700 m). Both the beech forests and the heather (Calluna vulgaris) heathlands are being replaced by holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest at medium altitudes (800–1400 m). This beech replacement has been observed to occur through a progressive isolation and degradation of beech stands. In ‘isolated’ (small and surrounded by holm oaks) beech stands, beech trees are 30% more defoliated, beech recruitment is 41% lower, and holm oak recruitment is three times higher than in ‘continental’ (large and continuous) beech stands. The progressively warmer conditions, complemented by the land use changes (mainly the cessation of traditional land management) are the apparent causes, providing a paradigmatic example of global change affecting distributions of plant species and biomes.     

Past distribution and ecology of the cork oak (Quercus suber) in the Iberian Peninsula: a pollen-analytical approach

Abstract.  This study presents pollen-analytical data from continental and offshore Iberian Peninsula sites that include pollen curves of Quercus suber , to provide information on the past distribution and ecology of the cork oak ( Q. suber ). Results centre on a new pollen record of Navarrés (Valencia, eastern Spain), which shows that the cork oak survived regionally during the Upper Pleistocene and was important during a mid-Holocene replacement of a local pine forest by Quercus -dominated communities. This phenomenon appears linked to the recurrence of fire and reinforces the value of the cork oak for reforestation programmes in fire-prone areas. In addition to Navarrés, other Late Quaternary pollen sequences (Sobrestany, Casablanca-Almenara, Padul, SU 8103, SU8113, 8057B) suggest last glacial survival of the cork oak in southern and coastal areas of the Peninsula and North Africa. Important developments also occur from the Late Glacial to the middle Holocene, not only in the west but also in the eastern Peninsula. It is suggested that, in the absence of human influence, Q. suber would develop in non-monospecific forests, sharing the arboreal stratum both with other sclerophyllous and deciduous Quercus and Pinus species.     

Growth and yield of young Quercus ilex coppice stands in the Tafferte forest (Morocco)

The coppice method is the silvicultural system commonly applied to Quercus ilex (holm oak) forests for the production of firewood and charcoal. Although the holm oak is the species that covers the largest area in Morocco (1400 000 hectares), little is known about its growth and yield. The objective of this study is to quantify the stand growth and yield of young coppice holm oak stands in the Tafferete forest in the eastern part of the Middle Atlas (Morocco).Equations relating dominant height to age, and basal area, volume, and number of trees to dominant height were developed and used to derive young holm oak coppice yield estimates.The growth and yield information developed in this study may have a greater utility in defining cultural measures that should be applied in the early stage of holm-oak coppice stands.     

Allozyme variation in cork oak (Quercus suber L.): the role of phylogeography and genetic introgression by other Mediterranean oak species and human activities

 Genetic variation in the cork oak (Quercus suber L.) was investigated using 11 loci from seven enzyme systems in 40 populations sampled over the entire distribution of this species in the western Mediterranean Basin. Mean heterozygosity values over the polymorphic loci (Ho=0.283), the percentage of polymorphic populations (M=0.76), and the total genetic diversity (Ht=0.31) from which 11% was accounted for among-population variation, are among the highest recorded in oak species. In contrast to previous results in holm oak (Q. ilex L.), another evergreen species in the same area, cork oak possessed a smaller allele pool and a lower average number of alleles per locus and per population (A=2.0). More particularly, very few low-frequency alleles were observed in cork oak except for eight populations in which allozyme polymorphism at locus Pgi 1, diagnostic between both species, indicates that these low-frequency alleles are introgressed from holm oak. On the basis of the genetic distance estimated from allozyme frequencies, 32 of the 40 cork oak populations studied were classified into two very distinct sets which also corresponded to distinct geographic areas. One set gathered together the 18 populations from the Iberian peninsula and two adjacent areas in France, i.e. the centre of origin of cork oak, according to paleobotanical data. This set was characterized by a larger allele pool, a higher within-population genetic diversity and a lower differentiation between populations than was observed in the other set, which comprised the populations from North Africa, Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, continental Italy and the region of Provence (southeastern France). In these more southern and eastern disjunct areas, cork oak migration from Iberia may have occurred at different periods since the end of the Tertiary. The possible effect of human activity on cork oak genetic structure, i.e. the selection of good-quality cork, acorn over-use for animal food, and even human nutrition, is discussed. Received: 3 March 1998 / Accepted: 19 March 1998     

The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems: an overview

An overview is presented of the phenological models relevant for boreal coniferous, temperate-zone deciduous and Mediterranean coniferous forest ecosystems. The phenology of the boreal forests is mainly driven by temperature, affecting the timing of the start of the growing season and thereby its duration, and the level of frost hardiness and thereby the reduction of foliage area and photosynthetic capacity by severe frost events. The phenology of temperate-zone forests is also mainly driven by temperature. Since temperate-zone forests are mostly mixed-species deciduous forests, differences in phenological response may affect competition between tree species. The phenology of Mediterranean coniferous forests is mainly driven by water availability, affecting the development of leaf area, rather than the timing of phenological events. These phenological models were subsequently coupled to the process-based forest model FORGRO to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on growth. The results indicate that the phenology of each of the forest types significantly affects the growth response to a given climate change scenario. The absolute responses presented in this study should, however, be used with caution as there are still uncertainties in the phenological models, the growth models, the parameter values obtained and the climate change scenarios used. Future research should attempt to reduce these uncertainties. It is recommended that phenological models that describe the mechanisms by which seasonality in climatic drivers affects the phenological aspects of trees should be developed and carefully tested. Only by using such models may we make an assessment of the impact of climate change on the functioning and productivity of different forest ecosystems. Received: 21 October 1999 / Revised: 10 May 2000 / Accepted: 10 May 2000     

Geographical adaptation prevails over species‐specific determinism in trees’ vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear‐edge forests

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short‐term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species’ limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short‐ and long‐term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species’ vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species‐specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species‐specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine‐scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.     

Assessing the relative fire proneness of different forest types in Portugal

Abstract

We have assessed the fire proneness of the main forest types in Portugal classified according to the main species, using three different approaches: the use of resource selection ratios applied to burned patches, the proportion of randomly located plots that were burned and the proportion of burned National Forest Inventory plots. The results allowed ranking fire proneness according to the following decreasing order: maritime pine forests, eucalyptus forests, unspecified broadleaf forests, unspecified conifer forests, cork oak forests, chestnut forests, holm oak forests and stone pine forests. In order to understand the obtained results we have assessed the structure of the different forest types using the percent cover of seven vegetation layers (C1–C7), a Tree Dominance Index, a Height Index and a Cover Index (IC). Structural variables and stand composition were used to predict fire probability according to binary logistic modelling. Only four structural variables and stand composition provided significant results, the latter being the most important variable for explaining fire probability. These models were used to predict fire probability for different stand types as a function of IC.