Forecasting fine‐scale changes in the food‐web structure of coastal marine communities under climate change

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in local communities worldwide as a consequence of individualistic species range shifts. Understanding how complex interaction networks will be reorganized under climate change represents a major challenge in the fields of ecology and biogeography. However, forecasting the potential effects of climate change on local communities, and more particularly on food‐web structure, requires the consideration of highly structuring processes, such as trophic interactions. A major breakthrough is therefore expected by combining predictive models integrating habitat selection processes, the physiological limits of marine species and their trophic interactions. In this study, we forecasted the potential impacts of climate change on the local food‐web structure of the highly threatened Gulf of Gabes ecosystem located in the south of the Mediterranean Sea. We coupled the climatic envelope and habitat models to an allometric niche food web model, hence taking into account the different processes acting at regional (climate) and local scales (habitat selection and trophic interactions). Our projections under the A2 climate change scenario showed that future food webs would be composed of smaller species with fewer links, resulting in a decrease of connectance, generality, vulnerability and mean trophic level of communities and an increase of the average path length, which may have large consequences on ecosystem functioning. The unified framework presented here, by connecting food‐web ecology, biogeography and seascape ecology, allows the exploration of spatial aspects of interspecific interactions under climate change and improves our current understanding of climate change impacts on local marine food webs.     

From projected species distribution to food‐web structure under climate change

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food‐web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food‐web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080–2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large‐scale impacts of climate change on marine food‐web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.     

Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an Arctic food web

Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co‐occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014–2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait‐based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range‐shifting species on food webs.     

Effects of climate‐driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation

Climate change is altering the rate and distribution of primary production in the world's oceans. Primary production is critical to maintaining biodiversity and supporting fishery catches, but predicting the response of populations to primary production change is complicated by predation and competition interactions. We simulated the effects of change in primary production on diverse marine ecosystems across a wide latitudinal range in Australia using the marine food web model Ecosim. We link models of primary production of lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and benthic producers) under climate change with Ecosim to predict changes in fishery catch, fishery value, biomass of animals of conservation interest, and indicators of community composition. Under a plausible climate change scenario, primary production will increase around Australia and generally this benefits fisheries catch and value and leads to increased biomass of threatened marine animals such as turtles and sharks. However, community composition is not strongly affected. Sensitivity analyses indicate overall positive linear responses of functional groups to primary production change. Responses are robust to the ecosystem type and the complexity of the model used. However, model formulations with more complex predation and competition interactions can reverse the expected responses for some species, resulting in catch declines for some fished species and localized declines of turtle and marine mammal populations under primary productivity increases. We conclude that climate‐driven primary production change needs to be considered by marine ecosystem managers and more specifically, that production increases can simultaneously benefit fisheries and conservation. Greater focus on incorporating predation and competition interactions into models will significantly improve the ability to identify species and industries most at risk from climate change.     

Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish

Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near‐future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near‐future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro‐ and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near‐future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio‐temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near‐future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be “climate winners” by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near‐future oceanic and estuarine climate change.     

持久性有机污染物在水生食物网中的传递行为

食物网是持久性有机污染物(POPs)在水生生态系统中传递的重要途径,了解其传递行为与机制是POPs生态暴露风险评价的科学基础。从4个方面展开了讨论和分析:(1)食物网主要特征(营养级和食物链长度)与POPs环境行为的关系;(2)POPs在底栖及底栖-浮游耦合食物网中的环境行为;(3)微食物网对POPs环境行为的作用;(4)食物网的变化对POPs环境行为的影响。主要结论如下:(1)已有研究对水生生物中POPs生物放大作用存在较大争议。一般营养级越高,POPs生物富集性越强,但由于各种生态和生理性质的影响,也存在例外情况。食物链长度与POPs生物富集性呈正相关。(2)POPs通过底栖食物网将沉积物中的POPs向上传递,底栖-浮游食物网的耦合提高了高营养级消费者的暴露风险,目前就POPs在底栖食物网中的生物放大性是否大于浮游食物网存在争议。(3)微生物具有较大的比表面积,是吸附POPs的重要载体。另,沉积物中的微生物通过分解有机质,将POPs释放到水柱中。微生物降解也是环境中POPs脱离环境的重要途径。(4)在内、外压力下,食物网结构和功能发生变化,使物质和能量的传递方向和效率发生改变,并与环境理化性质的变化互相耦合,影响POPs的环境行为。当前研究的重点多集中在POPs在浮游食物网,尤其是高营养级浮游食物网中的环境行为,对POPs在底栖及底栖-浮游耦合食物网和微食物网中环境行为的研究相对缺乏。有关POPs在食物网中环境行为的研究多集中在食物网的某个部分,时间尺度较短,缺乏对POPs环境行为动态变化的研究,未来需深入开展多尺度和多角度的POPs在食物网中环境行为的动态变化研究。新型POPs的生产和使用量不断增加,但有关其在食物网中环境行为的相关分析还较为匮乏,需加强研究。     

Critical indirect effects of climate change on sub‐Antarctic ecosystem functioning

Sub‐Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land‐based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub‐Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; “island mass effect”; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long‐term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long‐term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate‐driven shift in the position of the sub‐Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore‐feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of offshore‐feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways within this island ecosystem may be detected throughout the food web, demonstrating that the most powerful effects of climate change on marine systems may be indirect.     

Rainfall and hydrological stability alter the impact of top predators on food web structure and function

Climate change will alter the distribution of rainfall, with potential consequences for the hydrological dynamics of aquatic habitats. Hydrological stability can be an important determinant of diversity in temporary aquatic habitats, affecting species persistence and the importance of predation on community dynamics. As such, prey are not only affected by drought‐induced mortality but also the risk of predation [a non‐consumptive effect (NCE)] and actual consumption by predators [a consumptive effect (CE)]. Climate‐induced changes in rainfall may directly, or via altered hydrological stability, affect predator–prey interactions and their cascading effects on the food web, but this has rarely been explored, especially in natural food webs. To address this question, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their aquatic food web, composed of predatory damselfly larvae, macroinvertebrate prey and bacteria. We manipulated the presence and consumption ability of damselfly larvae under three rainfall scenarios (ambient, few large rainfall events and several small rainfall events), recorded the hydrological dynamics within bromeliads and examined the effects on macroinvertebrate colonization, nutrient cycling and bacterial biomass and turnover. Despite our large perturbations of rainfall, rainfall scenario had no effect on the hydrological dynamics of bromeliads. As a result, macroinvertebrate colonization and nutrient cycling depended on the hydrological stability of bromeliads, with no direct effect of rainfall or predation. In contrast, rainfall scenario determined the direction of the indirect effects of predators on bacteria, driven by both predator CEs and NCEs. These results suggest that rainfall and the hydrological stability of bromeliads had indirect effects on the food web through changes in the CEs and NCEs of predators. We suggest that future studies should consider the importance of the variability in hydrological dynamics among habitats as well as the biological mechanisms underlying the ecological responses to climate change.     

Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species

Climate change will have substantial impacts on biodiversity, particularly for aquatic species. Warming temperatures and changing weather patterns will also remobilize and modify chemical partitioning. Holding millions of cubic yards of sediments contaminated with persistent legacy chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxins, the Laurentian Great Lakes are a laboratory for observing interactions between biological and chemical responses to climate change. They provide a wide range of habitat to a variety of species, from littoral forage fish to deep‐water predators. In this paper, we couple bioenergetic and bioaccumulation models to investigate the biological and chemical effects of climate change in the Great Lakes. We consider three species: round goby, a warm‐water invasive forage fish; mottled sculpin, a cool‐water native forage fish; and lake trout, a cold‐water native predator. Using our coupled models, we calculate the accumulation of a representative persistent chemical, PCB‐77, under four climate scenarios for Lake Erie and Lake Superior. Predator–prey (lake trout–round goby) interactions and food availability (high–low) are incorporated into our simulations. For cool‐ to cold‐water species (sculpin, lake trout) we find that warm temperatures limit growth. For warm‐water species (round goby) cold temperatures limit growth. The impact of climate warming on growth depends on the winter lows as well as the summer highs of the scenario, in combination with the species' critical upper and lower thermal limits. We find conditions for high growth and consumption rates generally lead to high bioaccumulation. However, this can be confounded by predator–prey dynamics, as mismatches in the temperature preferences of predator and prey can lead to mismatches in relative growth and uptake rates. As predator–prey dynamics are expected to undergo substantial shifts with changing climate, these relative thermal sensitivities will be key in determining the implications of climate change for bioaccumulation, particularly in top predator species.     

Global change‐driven effects on dissolved organic matter composition: Implications for food webs of northern lakes

Northern ecosystems are experiencing some of the most dramatic impacts of global change on Earth. Rising temperatures, hydrological intensification, changes in atmospheric acid deposition and associated acidification recovery, and changes in vegetative cover are resulting in fundamental changes in terrestrial–aquatic biogeochemical linkages. The effects of global change are readily observed in alterations in the supply of dissolved organic matter (DOM)—the messenger between terrestrial and lake ecosystems—with potentially profound effects on the structure and function of lakes. Northern terrestrial ecosystems contain substantial stores of organic matter and filter or funnel DOM, affecting the timing and magnitude of DOM delivery to surface waters. This terrestrial DOM is processed in streams, rivers, and lakes, ultimately shifting its composition, stoichiometry, and bioavailability. Here, we explore the potential consequences of these global change‐driven effects for lake food webs at northern latitudes. Notably, we provide evidence that increased allochthonous DOM supply to lakes is overwhelming increased autochthonous DOM supply that potentially results from earlier ice‐out and a longer growing season. Furthermore, we assess the potential implications of this shift for the nutritional quality of autotrophs in terms of their stoichiometry, fatty acid composition, toxin production, and methylmercury concentration, and therefore, contaminant transfer through the food web. We conclude that global change in northern regions leads not only to reduced primary productivity but also to nutritionally poorer lake food webs, with discernible consequences for the trophic web to fish and humans.     

Potential oscillators and keystone modules in food webs

Food web theory suggests that the placement of a weak interaction is critical such that under some conditions even one well‐placed weak interaction can stabilise multiple strong interactions. This theory suggests that complex stable webs may be built from pivotal weak interactions such that the removal of even one to a few keystone interactions can have significant cascading impacts on whole system diversity and structure. However, the connection between weak interactions, derived from the theory of modular food web components, and keystone species, derived from empirical results, is not yet well understood. Here, we develop numerical techniques to detect potential oscillators hidden in complex food webs, and show that, both in random and real food webs, keystone consumer–resource interactions often operate to stabilise them. Alarmingly, this result suggests that nature frequently may be dangerously close to precipitous change with even the loss of one or a few weakly interacting species.     

Adapting Management of Marine Environments to a Changing Climate: A Checklist to Guide Reform and Assess Progress

Documented impacts of climate change on marine systems indicate widespread changes in many geographic regions and throughout all levels of the ocean’s food webs. Oceans provide the main source of animal protein for over a billion people, and contribute significantly to food security for billions more. Clearly, if we are to continue to derive these benefits, then the rate of adaptation in our human systems needs to at least keep pace with the rate of ecological change for these benefits to continue. An Australia-wide program of research into marine biodiversity and fisheries explored the opportunities for policy and management to respond to a changing climate. The research program spanned all Australian estuarine-nearshore and marine environments—tropical, subtropical, and temperate—and focused on two key marine sectors: biodiversity conservation and fisheries (commercial, recreational, and aquaculture). Key findings from across this strategic and extensive research investment were the need to foster resilience through habitat repair and protection, improve resource allocation strategies, fine-tune fisheries management systems, and enhance whole of government approaches and policies. Building on these findings, from a climate adaptation perspective, we generated a checklist of thirteen elements encompassing all project findings to assess and steer progress towards improving marine policy and management. These elements are grouped in three broad areas: preconditioning; future proofing; and transformational changes and opportunities. Arising from these elements is a suite of priority strategies that provide guidance for marine managers, policy practitioners, and stakeholders as they prepare for a future under climate change. As the research program encompassed a wide range of habitats and ecosystems, spanned a latitudinal range of over 30°, and considered a diversity of management systems and approaches, many of these elements and strategies will be applicable in a global context.     

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem‐defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2–5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries’ economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.     

Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean

Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions.     

Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore–parasitoid interactions to climate change

Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore–parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore–parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.     

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Effects of global environmental changes on parasitoid–host food webs and biological control

Global environmental changes threaten biodiversity and the interactions between species, and food-web approaches are being used increasingly to measure their community-wide impacts. Here we review how parasitoid–host food webs affect biological control, and how their structure responds to environmental change. We find that land-use intensification tends to produce webs with low complexity and uneven interaction strengths. Dispersal, spatial arrangement of habitats, the species pool and community differences across habitats have all been found to determine how webs respond to landscape structure, though clear effects of landscape complexity on web structure remain elusive. The invasibility of web structures and response of food webs to invasion have been the subject of theoretical and empirical work respectively, and nutrient enrichment has been widely studied in the food-web literature, potentially driving dynamic instability and altering biomass ratios of different trophic levels. Combined with food-web changes observed under climate change, these responses of food webs could signal changes to biological control, though there have been surprisingly few studies linking food-web structure to pest control, and these have produced mixed results. However, there is strong potential for food-web approaches to add value to biological control research, as parasitoid–host webs have been used to predict indirect effects among hosts that share enemies, to study non-target effects of biological control agents and to quantify the use of alternative prey resources by enemies. Future work is needed to link food-web interactions with evolutionary responses to the environment and predator–prey interactions, while incorporating recent advances in predator biodiversity research. This holistic understanding of agroecosystem responses and functioning, made possible by food-web approaches, may hold the key to better management of biological control in changing environments.     

全球变化对食物网结构影响机制的研究进展

食物网主要依靠基于不同营养级间物种互作形成的上行与下行调控维持其结构。全球变化能够改变种间关系, 威胁生物多样性的维持, 然而目前对全球变化改变食物网结构的机制仍处于探索阶段。近年来通过大时空格局与多营养级食物网研究, 发现全球变化的作用机制主要可归结为3种: 物候错配、关键种丧失与生物入侵。该文聚焦于这3种机制, 综述各种机制造成的食物网结构变化并探讨相关的进化与生态驱动因素。三种干扰机制均通过改变原有种间关系, 影响食物网调控, 改变食物网结构。不同的是, 物候错配造成的种间关系变化是由于不同物种的物候对全球变化产生非同步响应所致; 关键种丧失则使营养级间取食/捕食关系发生变化甚至缺失; 而入侵物种通过竞争排除同营养级物种改变种间关系。最后, 该文提出食物网结构变化的实质是物种是否能够适应快速变化的生态环境, 并据此展望未来研究方向。随着全球变化影响日益加剧, 急需继续深入探索导致全球变化下食物网结构改变的机制, 为制定合理的生物多样性保护与生态修复规划提供重要理论支撑。     

Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species'' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change.     

Ecological role and historical trends of large pelagic predators in a subtropical marine ecosystem of the South Atlantic

Large pelagic predators occupy high positions in food webs and could control lower trophic level species by direct and indirect ecological interactions. In this study we aimed to test the hypotheses: (1) pelagic predators are keystone species, and their removals could trigger impacts on the food chain; (2) higher landings of pelagic predators could trigger fishing impacts with time leading to a drop in the mean trophic level of catches; and (3) recovery in the pelagic predators populations, especially for sharks, could be achieved with fishing effort reduction. We performed a food web approach using an Ecopath with Ecosim model to represent the Southeastern and Southern Brazil, a subtropical marine ecosystem, in 2001. We then calibrated the baseline model using catch and fishing effort time series from 2001 to 2012. Afterwards, we simulated the impact of fishing effort changes on species and assessed the ecological impacts on the pelagic community from 2012 to 2025. Results showed that the model was well fitted to landing data for the majority of groups. The pelagic predators species were classified as keystone species impacting mainly on pelagic community. The ecosystem was resilient and fisheries seem sustainable at that time. However, the temporal simulation, from 2001 to 2012, revealed declines in the biomass of three sharks, tuna and billfish groups. It was possible observe declines in the mean trophic level of the catch and in the mean total length of landings. Longline fisheries particularly affected the sharks, billfish and swordfish, while hammerhead sharks were mostly impacted by gillnet fishery. Model simulations showed that large sharks’ biomasses could be recovered or maintained only after strong fishing effort reduction.