基于树轮宽度数据重建的阴山东部过去399年降水变化

基于阴山东部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区域树轮宽度年表,并计算器测时期(AD 1952—2007)月均温和月降水量与树轮宽度年表的相关系数。结果表明: 树轮宽度年表与上一年9月至当年6月降水量变化的相关性最高(r=0.73,n=56,P<0.01),基于此重建了阴山东部过去399年(AD 1619—2017)上一年9月至当年6月的降水量变化历史。该重建解释了器测时期上一年9月至当年6月降水量54.9%的方差,经“留一法”交叉验证和分段独立检验证明,重建方程稳定可靠。在年代际尺度上,过去399年存在4个湿润时期(AD 1619—1663、AD 1705—1711、AD 1945—1963和AD 1979—2017)和4个干旱时期(AD 1734—1767、AD 1786—1814、AD 1839—1867和AD 1888—1942)。其中,AD 1979—2017是最湿润的时期,而AD 1888—1942是干旱持续最长的时段,包含最干旱时期1920s晚期。功率谱分析显示,过去399年该区降水具有2～7年和125年准周期变化。通过与邻近区域重建对比及空间相关分析表明,本降水重建序列可以较好地代表研究区域的降水变化。     

呼伦贝尔沙地樟子松年轮生长对气候变化的响应

以内蒙古呼伦贝尔地区沙地樟子松为样本,建立了樟子松树木年轮宽度年表,应用相关分析和响应函数分析等年轮气候学方法,研究了樟子松径向生长对气候变化的响应。结果表明,樟子松年轮宽度与4月和6—9月平均温度呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05);与各月降水量多呈正相关关系,特别是与当年5—8月的月降水量呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05);树轮年表与前一年10月至当年10月的PDSI均呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05),其中与5月份PDSI的相关性最高。响应函数分析表明,年表与当年6—7月的平均气温、上一年10月和当年5—7月份的降雨存在显著的相关性,与5—7月份PDSI存在较显著的正相关性;综合来看,呼伦贝尔沙地樟子松生长同时受降水和温度的影响,其径向生长与气候因子间的关系属于降水敏感型,为区域降水重建提供了科学基础。     

中国东南高海拔黄山松生长对气候的响应——以浙江省九龙山和安徽省牯牛降为例

利用中国浙江省西南部九龙山自然保护区和安徽省南部牯牛降的高海拔黄山松树轮径向宽度资料,分别建立了2个树轮宽度差值年表(RES).由子样本信号强度(SSS)>0.8判定,九龙山年表(JLS01)的可靠时段为1884—2010年,牯牛降年表(GNJ01)的可靠时段为1837—2008年.将采样点周围气象站气象数据做算术平均代表区域气候状况,利用相关函数检验了两年表与区域气象数据的月降水量、月平均温度、月平均相对湿度、月总云量和月日照时数的关系.结果表明： 2个高海拔点树木径向生长主要受夏季(上年6、7月,当年6月)水热条件的影响.九龙山年表与上年6、7月温度呈显著正相关,与上年6、7月和当年6月降水及相对湿度呈显著负相关,与上年7月总云量呈显著负相关,与上年6、7月日照时数呈显著正相关;牯牛降年表与上年7月温度呈显著正相关,与上年7月和当年6月降水及相对湿度呈显著负相关,与上年6月总云量呈显著负相关,与上年7月、当年6月日照时数呈显著正相关.由于高海拔地区温度较低,夏季温度的升高有利于该地区树木生长,同时较多降水对应的高相对湿度、高云量和低日照时数,限制了光合作用产物的合成,导致树木的径向生长受到抑制.
     

基于红松树轮重建小兴安岭南麓过去140年6月份平均温度变化

基于建立的小兴安岭南麓红松树轮宽度标准年表,分析红松径向生长与该地区温度和降水间的关系以及1982年升温突变对此相关性的影响。结果表明：6月平均温度与树轮宽度年表在变暖前后始终呈极显著负相关,是该地区红松径向生长的主要限制因子。基于此构建的区域1843—1982年6月平均温度重建方程稳定可靠。重建温度序列的偏暖时期和偏冷时期分别持续7年和29年,偏暖时段为1915—1921年,偏冷时段为1880—1891年和1932—1948年。小波分析结果显示6月平均温度存在2—7a周期变化。空间相关分析结果表明重建温度序列能很好的代表小兴安岭南麓及附近区域的温度变化。本研究拓展了研究区现有的气候数据,可为掌握小兴安岭气候变化规律和科学预测未来气候提供数据支撑。     

基于黄山松树轮重建华东天目山地区1809—2018年4—7月平均气温

利用浙江北部西天目山高海拔黄山松树轮样品,建立了340年的整轮、早材和晚材宽度年表,根据子样本信号强度大于0.8的标准,确定年表的可靠时段为1810—2019年,通过对年表与气候要素进行相关分析,研究了树轮生长对气候的响应。结果表明: 黄山松径向生长对气温的响应远高于对降水的响应。综合考虑原始序列和一阶差序列相关分析结果,发现早材宽度与上年生长季前期平均气温、平均最高气温显著相关,晚材宽度与上年5月和当年9月平均气温、平均最高气温显著相关。整轮响应时段与早材较为一致,但相关性较低。最优相关组合为早材宽度与上年4—7月平均气温。基于这一关系,重建了华东天目山地区1809—2018年4—7月平均气温,方差解释量达61.5%,原始序列和一阶差序列均通过分段检验。重建气温序列中的偏冷时段为1834—1964年,偏暖时段为1809—1833和1965—2018年。20世纪60年代以来,气温进入快速上升阶段,从低频趋势上看,20世纪80年代之后气温达到过去210年来的最高水平。空间相关分析表明,重建序列较好地代表了华东地区气温的变化情况,与华东地区的区域重建序列对比也具有较好的一致性。黄山松在华东地区古气候重建方面具有较大潜力。     

开都河流域天山桦树轮宽度年表的建立及其气候响应

利用开都河流域中段采集的天山桦树芯样本,建立了这一采样点的树轮宽度年表。该年表的特征参数与其他地区已有的桦木树轮宽度年表相近,且能较好地反映研究区内天山桦树轮宽度变化的基本特征。该年表与研究区内雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表间的相关分析表明,两者在全频域、高频域及低频域上均存在显著正相关。树木生长气候响应分析结果显示,天山桦树轮宽度与降水量的相关则不显著;而与上年12月呈显著正相关(r= 0.346,P < 0.01,n=59),与当年6月的平均气温呈显著负相关(r=-0.312,P < 0.01,n=60)。该年表存在2.1、4.0a和~50a变化准周期,并且其与3月多元El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)指数存在相似的变化趋势。     

基于油松树轮重建晋东南地区近296年来1—6月降水变化

区域历史气候变化研究受观测数据限制,不利于认识长时间尺度上气候变化情况。本研究采用山西省东南部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区树轮年表,分析降水变化与树轮宽度年表之间的关联。结果表明: 树轮差值年表(RES)与1—6月的降水量变化有较好的相关性,(r=0.636,n=59,P<0.01)。采用线性回归方法分析山西省东南部区域1724—2019年1—6月的降水重建序列,方差解释量为40.4%,经检验重建方程稳定可靠。对降水重建序列特征分析表明,1724—2019年存在10个极端干旱年和6个极端湿润年,经历了6次干旱期(1742—1771、1830—1848、1872—1894、1917—1945、1961—1981和1990—2019年)、4次湿润期(1727—1741、1772—1829、1849—1871和1895—1916年)。最长干旱期为1742—1771、1990—2019年,最长湿润期为1772—1829年。对于过去296年,降水变化序列存在2.3、3.2～3.3、3.7～3.8、6.3～6.7和8.3～8.7年周期变化特征,其中2.3年的周期与“准两年脉动”周期重合,3.2～3.3、3.7～3.8和6.3～6.7年的周期可能与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动的变化存在一定关系。空间相关分析表明,重建降水序列能够较好地代表研究区域范围的降水变化。     

罗霄山南部4个针叶树种生长特征及其气候响应对比分析

为了解影响罗霄山南部树木径向生长的主要气候要素, 该研究运用树木年轮气候学研究方法, 建立罗霄山南部4个针叶树种的树轮宽度标准化年表, 阐明影响该区域4个针叶树种径向生长的主要气候要素, 研究各树种在气温突变前后的径向生长特征及其对气候要素响应的异同。结果表明: 年表特征参数显示, 福建柏(Fokienia hodginsii)与其他树种相比, 其树轮宽度年表所包含的气候信息可能较少。与气候要素的相关分析显示, 铁杉(Tsuga chinensis)的径向生长同时受气温和降水的影响: 与上年10月的降水量呈显著正相关关系, 与气温的响应总体上呈负相关关系; 资源冷杉(Abies beshanzuensis var. ziyuanensis)仅与上年8月的降水量呈显著正相关关系; 马尾松(Pinus massoniana)与上年3月和当年1月的最高气温呈显著正相关关系, 与上年7月和当年8月的最低气温呈显著负相关关系; 福建柏仅与当年3月的降水量呈显著正相关关系。气温发生突变后, 4个树种树轮宽度指数的变化趋势相同, 均呈下降趋势, 除资源冷杉外, 各个树种的径向生长对气候要素的响应总体上有所增强, 且升温后产生的干旱胁迫抑制了各树种的生长。     

大兴安岭库都尔地区兴安落叶松年轮宽度年表及其与气候变化的关系

基于建立的大兴安岭库都尔地区兴安落叶松树轮宽度年表,分析了兴安落叶松树轮宽度年表与该区温度、降水和帕尔默干湿指数(PDSI)等主要气候因子之间的关系.结果表明:研究区5月和7月的温度与兴安落叶松年轮宽度变化呈极显著负相关关系(P0.01);虽然降水与年轮宽度变化没有表现出显著的相关关系,但6—8月PDSI与年轮宽度变化显著相关(P0.05),说明兴安落叶松的生长明显受区域水热条件共同控制,且以5月和7月最显著.兴安落叶松树轮宽度年表与诸如太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)等大尺度气候系统波动的低频系数和高频系数之间呈显著相关,说明太平洋气候系统的波动对该区树木径向生长具有显著影响.     

阿尔泰山南坡树轮宽度对气候变暖的响应

在全球气候变暖的背景下,中高纬度地区出现了树轮宽度对气候的响应分异现象,在阿尔泰山南坡的森林上限,西伯利亚落叶松树轮宽度对生长季温度敏感,该区域树轮宽度对气候要素是否存在响应分异现象还不确定。建立了哈萨克斯坦境内阿尔泰山南坡的西伯利亚落叶松树轮宽度年表,利用树轮资料和卡通卡拉盖气象站的气象资料,分析了该站1932年以来的温度和降水变化趋势,并利用相关函数分析了树轮宽度对气候要素的响应特征以及对温度响应关系的变化。结果表明:1932年以来该站温度上升趋势明显,特别是冬季的升温最为显著,降水呈微弱的下降趋势;研究区树轮宽度与6月的温度显著正相关,相关系数达到0.60以上,该相关生理学意义明显;滑动序列相关分析表明,树轮宽度对6月温度的响应较为一致,没有出现明显的响应分异现象。还发现了1992年是一个响应异常的年份,是否与1991年的P inatubo火山爆发有关还有待深入研究。     

Precipitation reconstruction for the southern Altay Mountains (China) from tree rings of Siberian spruce,reveals recent wetting trend

We developed six tree-ring width chronologies of Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) from the low elevation forest of the southern Altay Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China. Although the six chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r ≥ 0.477), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 72.2% of total variance over their common period 1825–2010. Correlation response analysis revealed that radial growth of Siberian spruce is mainly limited by a 12-month precipitation starting from July of the previous year to June of the current year. We therefore developed a July–June precipitation reconstruction spanning 1825–2009, which explained 65.5% of the instrumental variance for the period 1962–2009. The information of our precipitation reconstruction suggested that dry conditions existed for the periods 1829–1838, 1852–1855, 1876–1888, 1898–1911, 1919–1923, 1932–1936, 1943–1955, 1963–1968, 1973–1984 and 2007–2009, and wet conditions for the periods AD 1825–1828, 1839–1851, 1856–1875, 1889–1897, 1912–1918, 1924–1931, 1937–1942, 1956–1962, 1969–1972 and 1985–2006. Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our precipitation reconstruction contains a strong precipitation signal for the Altay Mountain ranges. Our reconstruction agreed with the moisture-sensitive tree ring width series of Siberian larch from the Altay Mountains of Mongolia on a decadal timescale. In addition, in contrast to a drying trend in north central China, a clear wetting trend has occurred in the southern Altay Mountains since 1980s.     

A 2917-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the Buerhanbuda Mts., Southeastern Qaidam Basin,China

In this study, we developed the tree-ring width chronology for the period of 1404 BCE to 2015 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) trees collected from the Buerhanbuda Mts. in the southeastern Qaidam Basin (QB) near Nuomuhong Village, Qinghai Province. This is the first and longest chronology to date in this region. Based on the relationships between the tree-ring width chronology and climate data, the annual precipitation from previous July to current June (July-June) was reconstructed for the past 2917 years from 902 BCE to 2015 CE. This reconstruction accounted for 47.9% of the total variance in the actual July-June precipitation in the calibration period (1957–2015). The full reconstruction captured distinct wet and dry variability, and contained evidence of some low-frequency climate signals. We identified 13 wet and 12 dry periods, of which 1443–1503 CE and 1789–1836 CE were the two longest dry periods. General agreements in the low-frequency variations between the July-June precipitation and other moisture-sensitive records for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) suggested that the reconstruction in this study represented a regional signal. Spatial correlations with gridded precipitation data also indicated that the reconstructed July-June precipitation could adequately represent climate fluctuations over a large area of the northeastern TP. The new tree-ring width chronology and precipitation reconstruction are important for understanding natural climate change in the southeastern QB.     

新疆阿勒泰地区西伯利亚红松径向生长对气候水文的响应

利用采自新疆阿勒泰地区西伯利亚红松树轮样本,建立树轮标准化年表,对气候水文因子对西伯利亚红松径向生长的影响进行了研究。结果表明: 西伯利亚红松年表包含较高的气候信息,与当年5—6月平均温度、平均最高温度表现出显著的负相关,与当年5—6月帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)表现出显著的正相关,与当年1—6月降水表现出显著的正相关,与上一年11月额尔齐斯河径流表现出明显的正相关。温度和降水共同影响该地区西伯利亚红松的径向生长,其中生长期前期降水与夏季温度是影响径向生长的关键气候要素。对年表极值年的研究发现,厄尔尼诺-南方振动(ENSO)及全球大尺度环流与西伯利亚红松径向生长存在联系,ENSO通过对中亚上空气旋位置的影响使输送到阿勒泰地区的水汽产生变化,从而影响到西伯利亚红松的径向生长。     

昌岭山两个优势树种径向生长对气候变化的响应

在气候变暖背景下,树木径向生长对气候变化的响应存在不稳定性。利用采自祁连山东部余脉昌岭山两个优势树种油松和青海云杉的树轮样芯,建立树轮宽度标准年表,通过分析树轮宽度年表与气候要素的相关关系,探讨两个树种径向生长对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）油松年表比青海云杉年表包含更多的气候信息,其平均敏感度、标准差、信噪比和样本对总体的代表性等统计量均高于青海云杉标准年表。（2）气候要素对不同树种径向生长限制程度不同,油松径向生长主要与降水（前一年9月和当年3-8月）和气温（前一年9月）有关,但对降水的响应更为敏感,而青海云杉径向生长则受到气温（当年9月）和降水（前一年9月、当年3月和7月）的共同作用。（3）气温突变后,油松和青海云杉年表与各气温要素的相关性显著增强,而青海云杉年表与气温要素的相关性变化更明显,指示了青海云杉径向生长对气温的响应更不稳定。（4）生长季平均最低气温的升高诱导的干旱胁迫是油松和青海云杉树木径向生长-气温响应变化的主要原因。     

太白山南北坡高山林线太白红杉对气候变化的响应差异

气候变化对秦岭植被生长的影响已经引起了人们的广泛关注,在相同的立地条件下,植被对气候变化的响应会因坡向不同而产生差异,秦岭的分水岭太白山尤为典型,为更进一步揭示不同坡向太白红杉(Larix chinensis)对气候变化响应的差异,以树木年代学为依据,利用采自太白山南、北坡相同海拔的太白红杉树芯样本分别建立了树轮年表,并分析了两者的年表特征,探讨了树轮宽度指数与气候因子之间的相关性及逐步线性回归方程。结果表明:太白山南、北坡太白红杉年表的平均敏感度、样本间平均相关系数、样本总体代表性等特征值较高,表明两个不同坡向年表中皆含有丰富的环境信息,相对而言,北坡样地植被对气候的响应较南坡样地敏感;由相关性分析可知,南北坡太白红杉差值年表对气温和降水响应显著的月份有所差异,北坡样地轮宽指数与当年和前一年1—6月平均气温皆为显著正相关关系,而南坡样地轮宽指数仅与当年5—6月平均气温通过显著性检验。南、北坡太白红杉径向生长都明显受到前一年6月降水"滞后效应"的一致影响,但北坡仅与当年8月的降水呈显著正相关,南坡与当年1—4月的平均降水量存在十分显著的负相关;多元线性逐步回归模型显示,气温因子对回归方程的贡献最大值均大于降水因子的贡献最大值,表明气温因子的变化更易引起太白红杉树轮宽度的变化,另外,气温因子对北坡样地回归模型的贡献值比气温因子对南坡样地回归模型的贡献值大,表明北坡样地处树轮宽度指数对气温因子更敏感,并且与相关分析结果一致。     

河北太行山南段树木年轮指示的167年来相对湿度变化研究

研究建立了河北太行山南段侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)树轮宽度年表,分析树木径向生长对水热变化的响应,构建了研究区167年来相对湿度变化序列。结果表明,侧柏树轮宽度与6月降水显著正相关,与5—7月逐月均温和最高温均显著负相关,侧柏径向生长受到春末夏初水热条件的显著制约。研究区167年来干湿变化明显,明显的干旱期有1876—1877,1900—1901,1904—1912,1918—1921,1926—1930和1933—1935年,湿润期有1871—1873,1882—1884,1888—1890,1893—1895,1953—1956,1971—1972和2002—2003年。5—7月相对湿度变化与旱涝等级负相关达到0.01显著水平。周期分析表明,167年来5—7月相对湿度变化存在2—4年、7.71年和60年左右周期,可能与太平洋活动、太阳活动有一定关联。     

川西亚高山不同年龄紫果云杉径向生长对气候因子的响应

运用树木年轮气候学的基本方法,建立王朗自然保护区紫果云杉在集中分布上限区域的年轮宽度年表,选取差值年表分析不同年龄云杉的径向生长同逐月气候因子的相关及响应关系,结果显示:幼龄组云杉年表的敏感度高于中龄组和老龄组云杉,幼龄组云杉对生长季前及生长季的气温状况显著正相关;中龄组云杉年表仅与当年4月份和7月份的月平均最低气温显著正相关;老龄组云杉的年轮宽度指数同上年生长季(上年8月份)的月平均气温和月平均最低温显著负相关,上年生长季高温的"滞后效应"在老龄组云杉体现的更为突出;幼龄组与中龄组云杉对当年6月份降水持续增加显示出明显的负相关关系,上年12月份的降水会对幼龄组和老龄组云杉径向生长不利。研究表明幼龄组云杉包含的气候信息要优于中龄组和老龄组云杉,在该区域进行相关研究时应根据研究需要选取不同年龄跨度的云杉年表。     

Different climate responses of spruce and pine growth in Northern European Russia

We report new data on tree-ring growth in northern European Russia, a region with a hitherto relatively sparse tree-ring network. We explore its associations with climate variability. Areas, sampling locations and trees were selected for representativeness rather than climate sensitivity. Using tree rings from 651 conifers from six widely dispersed areas we show strong intercorrelation between trees within each major conifer species within and between areas. Regional composite tree-ring series for spruce and pine contain a major fraction of decadal and multidecadal variability. The most likely driver of this common variability is interannual to multidecadal climate variability. Gridded monthly instrumental climate data for the period 1902–2008, particularly mean temperature and total precipitation, were tested as predictors of each local species-specific tree-ring site chronology. The most consistent pattern emerged for spruce at all but the southernmost area. Cool and moist summers the year before growth were consistent drivers of spruce ring growth throughout the period, with no change in recent decades. Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index for prior summer was also a strong and consistent driver of spruce ring growth. For pine, there was a weaker but similarly stable association between larger rings and warm, moist conditions, in this case in the current summer. These associations were also identified at multidecadal time scales, particularly for spruce. On the other hand, the specific role of moisture variability in determining interannual to multidecadal variability in tree growth in this high latitude region raises questions about the relative vulnerability of spruce and pine there under global warming.     

Climatic factors affecting the tree-ring width of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula ermanii</Emphasis> at the timberline on Mount Norikura,central Japan

Tree-ring-width chronology of Betula ermanii was developed at the timberline (2,400 m a.s.l.) on Mount Norikura in central Japan, and climatic factors affecting the tree-ring width of B. ermanii were examined. Three monthly climatic data (mean temperature, insolation duration, and sum of precipitation) were used for the analysis. The tree-ring width of B. ermanii was negatively correlated with the December and January temperatures and with the January precipitation prior to the growth. However, why high temperatures and heavy snow in winter had negative effects on the growth of B. ermanii is unknown. The tree-ring width was positively correlated with summer temperatures during June–August of the current year. The tree-ring width was also positively correlated with the insolation duration in July of the current year. In contrast, the tree-ring width was negatively correlated with summer precipitation during July–September of the current year. However, these negative correlations of summer precipitation do not seem to be independent of temperature and insolation duration, i.e., substantial precipitation reduces the insolation duration and temperature. Therefore, it is suggested that significant insolation duration and high temperature due to less precipitation in summer of the current year increase the radial growth of B. ermanii at the timberline. The results were also compared with those of our previous study conducted at the lower altitudinal limit of B. ermanii (approximately 1,600 m a.s.l.) on Mount Norikura. This study suggests that the climatic factors that increase the radial growth of B. ermanii differ between its upper and lower altitudinal limits.     

Temporal instability in tree-growth/climate response in the Lower Bavarian Forest region: implications for dendroclimatic reconstruction

This paper explores the temporal stability of growth/climate relationships in ring-width chronologies of Norway spruce [ Picea abies (L.) Karst] and silver fir ( Abies alba Mill) in the Lower Bavarian Forest region in southern Germany. These chronologies were compiled, using both historic and living tree-ring data, with the main aim of developing a dendroclimatic reconstruction for the region covering the last 500 years. Moving window correlation analysis shows that prior to the twentieth century, both species co-vary in a similar way (1480–1899 mean r =0.66). There is no significant correlation between the species chronologies since ca. 1930, which partly reflects anomalous growth trends in the fir chronology since ca. 1960. Multiple regression analysis was utilised to assess the ability of both species chronologies to model March–August precipitation. The precipitation signal of the spruce data was found to be both stronger than the fir data (1872–1930 calibration: r ²=0.45 vs 0.25) and more time stable. After ca. 1930, the fir chronology loses it ability to model March–August precipitation until there is no climate signal at all in the fir data in recent decades. The spruce data also express a later weakening in their climate signal in the mid 1970s. We present compelling evidence indicating that the anomalous trends observed in the fir data, since the mid 1960s, appear to be predominantly related to local SO₂ emissions from power plants and refineries. It is also likely that this local anthropogenic forcing is the cause of the weakening of the climate signal in the spruce data since the mid 1970s. The conclusions from this study are: (1) The fir tree-ring data cannot be used for traditional dendroclimatic calibration, although prior to the twentieth century the decadal variability in the fir data is very similar to spruce and so these data could be used to extend potential reconstructions in the future; (2) The recent decline and recovery event in the fir data appears to be unique to the twentieth century and is not part of a natural episodic phenomenon; (3) Traditional dendroclimatic calibration of March–August precipitation will be made using solely the spruce ring-width data. However, due to SO₂ forcing in recent decades, the calibration period will be shortened to the 1871–1978 period.