Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses of protein sequence data under relative branch-length differences and model violation

Background  

Bayesian phylogenetic inference holds promise as an alternative to maximum likelihood, particularly for large molecular-sequence data sets. We have investigated the performance of Bayesian inference with empirical and simulated protein-sequence data under conditions of relative branch-length differences and model violation.     

Using simple artificial intelligence methods for predicting amyloidogenesis in antibodies

Background  

All polypeptide backbones have the potential to form amyloid fibrils, which are associated with a number of degenerative disorders. However, the likelihood that amyloidosis would actually occur under physiological conditions depends largely on the amino acid composition of a protein. We explore using a naive Bayesian classifier and a weighted decision tree for predicting the amyloidogenicity of immunoglobulin sequences.     

Performance of criteria for selecting evolutionary models in phylogenetics: a comprehensive study based on simulated datasets

Background  

Explicit evolutionary models are required in maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference, the two methods that are overwhelmingly used in phylogenetic studies of DNA sequence data. Appropriate selection of nucleotide substitution models is important because the use of incorrect models can mislead phylogenetic inference. To better understand the performance of different model-selection criteria, we used 33,600 simulated data sets to analyse the accuracy, precision, dissimilarity, and biases of the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and decision theory.     

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

Objectives

Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models.

Results

Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan''s nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear).

Conclusions

Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears.     

An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

Background and Objectives

There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU.

Methods

This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method.

Results

The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study.

Conclusion

Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of in-ICU mortality outcomes.     

Bifurcation analysis informs Bayesian inference in the Hes1 feedback loop

Background  

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are an important tool for describing the dynamics of biological systems. However, for ODE models to be useful, their parameters must first be calibrated. Parameter estimation, that is, finding parameter values given experimental data, is an inference problem that can be treated systematically through a Bayesian framework.     

BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

Background  

The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented.     

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies

Background  

Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis.     

A graphical model approach for inferring large-scale networks integrating gene expression and genetic polymorphism

Background  

Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian networks) have been used frequently to describe complex interaction patterns and dependent structures among genes and other phenotypes. Estimation of such networks has been a challenging problem when the genes considered greatly outnumber the samples, and the situation is exacerbated when one wishes to consider the impact of polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes.     

Assessment of methods for amino acid matrix selection and their use on empirical data shows that ad hoc assumptions for choice of matrix are not justified

Background  

In recent years, model based approaches such as maximum likelihood have become the methods of choice for constructing phylogenies. A number of authors have shown the importance of using adequate substitution models in order to produce accurate phylogenies. In the past, many empirical models of amino acid substitution have been derived using a variety of different methods and protein datasets. These matrices are normally used as surrogates, rather than deriving the maximum likelihood model from the dataset being examined. With few exceptions, selection between alternative matrices has been carried out in an ad hoc manner.     

Inference of gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks

Background  

Inference of gene networks typically relies on measurements across a wide range of conditions or treatments. Although one network structure is predicted, the relationship between genes could vary across conditions. A comprehensive approach to infer general and condition-dependent gene networks was evaluated. This approach integrated Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture models to describe continuous microarray gene expression measurements, and three gene networks were predicted.     

Genomic selection and complex trait prediction using a fast EM algorithm applied to genome-wide markers

Background  

The information provided by dense genome-wide markers using high throughput technology is of considerable potential in human disease studies and livestock breeding programs. Genome-wide association studies relate individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) from dense SNP panels to individual measurements of complex traits, with the underlying assumption being that any association is caused by linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNP and quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting the trait. Often SNP are in genomic regions of no trait variation. Whole genome Bayesian models are an effective way of incorporating this and other important prior information into modelling. However a full Bayesian analysis is often not feasible due to the large computational time involved.     

PyEvolve: a toolkit for statistical modelling of molecular evolution

Background  

Examining the distribution of variation has proven an extremely profitable technique in the effort to identify sequences of biological significance. Most approaches in the field, however, evaluate only the conserved portions of sequences – ignoring the biological significance of sequence differences. A suite of sophisticated likelihood based statistical models from the field of molecular evolution provides the basis for extracting the information from the full distribution of sequence variation. The number of different problems to which phylogeny-based maximum likelihood calculations can be applied is extensive. Available software packages that can perform likelihood calculations suffer from a lack of flexibility and scalability, or employ error-prone approaches to model parameterisation.     

Ancestral state reconstruction reveals multiple independent evolution of diagnostic morphological characters in the "Higher Oribatida" (Acari), conflicting with current classification schemes

Background  

The use of molecular genetic data in phylogenetic systematics has revolutionized this field of research in that several taxonomic groupings defined by traditional taxonomic approaches have been rejected by molecular data. The taxonomic classification of the oribatid mite group Circumdehiscentiae ("Higher Oribatida") is largely based on morphological characters and several different classification schemes, all based upon the validity of diagnostic morphological characters, have been proposed by various authors. The aims of this study were to test the appropriateness of the current taxonomic classification schemes for the Circumdehiscentiae and to trace the evolution of the main diagnostic traits (the four nymphal traits scalps, centrodorsal setae, sclerits and wrinkled cuticle plus octotaxic system and pteromorphs both in adults) on the basis of a molecular phylogenetic hypothesis by means of parsimony, likelihood and Bayesian approaches.     

Efficient context-dependent model building based on clustering posterior distributions for non-coding sequences

Background  

Many recent studies that relax the assumption of independent evolution of sites have done so at the expense of a drastic increase in the number of substitution parameters. While additional parameters cannot be avoided to model context-dependent evolution, a large increase in model dimensionality is only justified when accompanied with careful model-building strategies that guard against overfitting. An increased dimensionality leads to increases in numerical computations of the models, increased convergence times in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and even more tedious Bayes Factor calculations.     

Estimating survival in patients with operable skeletal metastases: an application of a bayesian belief network

Background

Accurate estimations of life expectancy are important in the management of patients with metastatic cancer affecting the extremities, and help set patient, family, and physician expectations. Clinically, the decision whether to operate on patients with skeletal metastases, as well as the choice of surgical procedure, are predicated on an individual patient''s estimated survival. Currently, there are no reliable methods for estimating survival in this patient population. Bayesian classification, which includes Bayesian belief network (BBN) modeling, is a statistical method that explores conditional, probabilistic relationships between variables to estimate the likelihood of an outcome using observed data. Thus, BBN models are being used with increasing frequency in a variety of diagnoses to codify complex clinical data into prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of developing Bayesian classifiers to estimate survival in patients undergoing surgery for metastases of the axial and appendicular skeleton.

Methods

We searched an institution-owned patient management database for all patients who underwent surgery for skeletal metastases between 1999 and 2003. We then developed and trained a machine-learned BBN model to estimate survival in months using candidate features based on historical data. Ten-fold cross-validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed to evaluate the BNN model''s accuracy and robustness.

Results

A total of 189 consecutive patients were included. First-degree predictors of survival differed between the 3-month and 12-month models. Following cross validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80–0.93) for 3-month probability of survival and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77–0.90) for 12-month probability of survival.

Conclusions

A robust, accurate, probabilistic naïve BBN model was successfully developed using observed clinical data to estimate individualized survival in patients with operable skeletal metastases. This method warrants further development and must be externally validated in other patient populations.     

The time-profile of cell growth in fission yeast: model selection criteria favoring bilinear models over exponential ones

Background  

There is considerable controversy concerning the exact growth profile of size parameters during the cell cycle. Linear, exponential and bilinear models are commonly considered, and the same model may not apply for all species. Selection of the most adequate model to describe a given data-set requires the use of quantitative model selection criteria, such as the partial (sequential) F-test, the Akaike information criterion and the Schwarz Bayesian information criterion, which are suitable for comparing differently parameterized models in terms of the quality and robustness of the fit but have not yet been used in cell growth-profile studies.     

Complex inter‐island colonization and peripatric founder speciation promote diversification of flightless Pachyrhynchus weevils in the Taiwan–Luzon volcanic belt

Aim

We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of diversification among colourful and flightless weevils, the Pachyrhynchus orbifer complex, to test the stepping‐stone hypothesis of colonization across the Taiwan–Luzon volcanic belt.

Location

Southeast Asia.

Methods

The phylogeny of the P. orbifer complex was reconstructed from a multi‐locus data set of mitochondrial and nuclear genes using maximum likelihood in RAxML and Bayesian inference in MRBAYES. Likelihood‐based tests in CONSEL were used to evaluate alternative tree topologies. Divergence times were estimated in beast based on a range of mutation rates. Ancestral range and biogeographical history were reconstructed using Bayesian binary MCMC (BBM) methods in RASP and in BioGeoBEARS. Demographic histories were inferred using the extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP). Species boundaries were tested using BPP.

Results

The phylogeny of the P. orbifer complex indicated strong support for seven reciprocally monophyletic lineages grouped by current island boundaries (Camiguin, Fuga, Dalupiri, Calayan, Babuyan, Orchid and Yaeyama Islands), except for a sister Green + Itbayat lineage. Complex and stochastic colonization of P. orbifer was inferred to have involved both northward and southward directions with short‐ and long‐distance dispersal events, which are strongly inconsistent with the strict stepping‐stone hypothesis. Divergence time estimates for all extant island lineages (<1 Myr of Middle Pleistocene) are much more recent than the geological ages (22.4–1.7 Myr) and subaerial existence (c. 3 Myr) of the islands. The statistically delimited seven cryptic species imply that the diversity of Pachyrhynchus from small peripheral islands continues to be largely under‐estimated.

Main conclusions

The non‐linear, more complex spatial and temporal settings of the archipelago and stochastic dispersal were probable key factors shaping the colonization history of the P. orbifer complex. Speciation of the P. orbifer complex may have occurred only between islands, indicating that peripatric speciation through the founders of stochastic dispersals was the major evolutionary driver.