Effects of climate and demography on reproductive phenology of a harvested marine fish population

Shifts in phenology are a well‐documented ecological response to changes in climate, which may or may not be adaptive for a species depending on the climate sensitivity of other ecosystem processes. Furthermore, phenology may be affected by factors in addition to climate, which may accentuate or dampen climate‐driven phenological responses. In this study, we investigate how climate and population demographic structure jointly affect spawning phenology of a fish species of major commercial importance: walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). We use 32 years of data from ichthyoplankton surveys to reconstruct timing of pollock reproduction in the Gulf of Alaska and find that the mean date of spawning has varied by over 3 weeks throughout the last >3 decades. Climate clearly drives variation in spawn timing, with warmer temperatures leading to an earlier and more protracted spawning period, consistent with expectations of advanced spring phenology under warming. However, the effects of temperature were nonlinear, such that additional warming above a threshold value had no additional effect on phenology. Population demographics were equally as important as temperature: An older and more age‐diverse spawning stock tended to spawn earlier and over a longer duration than a younger stock. Our models suggest that demographic shifts associated with sustainable harvest rates could shift the mean spawning date 7 days later and shorten the spawning season by 9 days relative to an unfished population, independent of thermal conditions. Projections under climate change suggest that spawn timing will become more stable for walleye pollock in the future, but it is unknown what the consequences of this stabilization will be for the synchrony of first‐feeding larvae with production of zooplankton prey in spring. With ongoing warming in the world’s oceans, knowledge of the mechanisms underlying reproductive phenology can improve our ability to monitor and manage species under changing climate conditions.     

Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod

Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual‐based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM‐projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950–1999 and 2050–2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050–2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold‐water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large‐scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic.     

Evolution and disappearance of sympatric Coregonus albula in a changing environment—A case study of the only remaining population pair in Sweden

During the past 50 years, Fennoscandian populations of spring‐spawning Baltic cisco (Coregonus albula), sympatric to common autumn‐spawners, have declined or disappeared; for example, three out of four known spring‐spawning populations in Sweden are regarded as extinct. Over the same period, the climate has changed and populations have been subject to other anthropogenic stressors. We compared historic (1960s) and recent (1990–2000s) morphological data from the still‐existent sympatric cisco populations in Lake Fegen, Sweden. Phenotypic changes were found for spring‐spawners making them more similar to the sympatric autumn‐spawners that had remained virtually unchanged. Based on results for other salmoniform fishes, a phenotypically plastic response to increased temperature during early development appears unlikely. The recent material was also analyzed with microsatellite markers; long‐term effective population size in spring‐spawners was estimated to be about 20 times lower than autumn‐spawners, with signs of long‐term gene flow in both directions and a recent genetic bottleneck in spring‐spawners. We suggest the change toward a less distinct phenotype in spring‐spawners to reflect a recent increase in gene flow from autumn‐spawners. Time since divergence was estimated to only c. 1,900 years (95% CI: 400–5,900), but still the Fegen populations represent the most morphologically and genetically distinct sympatric populations studied. Consequently, we hypothesize that less distinct population pairs can be even younger and that spring‐spawning may have repeatedly evolved and disappeared in several lakes since the end of the last glaciation, concurrent with changed environmental conditions.     

Recruitment forecasting of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean with artificial neuronal networks

The recruitment of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean is modeled based on oceanographic as well as biological parameters, using two nonlinear autoregressive network models with exogenous inputs (NARX). In the first model (Model 1) the quarterly recruitment is modeled considering eastern Pacific global oceanographic conditions: the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and spawners biomass. In Model 2, recruitment is predicted based on sea surface temperature, wind magnitude, and oceanic current magnitude of a smaller area within the eastern Pacific Ocean, considered as relevant for spawning and recruitment, and total spawners biomass. The correlation coefficient between the ANN recruitment estimate and the “real” recruitment is r > 0.80 in both models. Series of sensitivity analysis suggest that the SOI and the sea surface temperature are the most important variables for the recruitment in Model 1 and Model 2 also show that warm sea surface favors recruitment. A forecasting model under different climatological scenarios indicates that the recruitment of yellowfin tuna could be higher in the period 2015–2020 compared to the ones registered in the period 2009–2013.     

Interannual variation in reproductive phenology in a riverine fish assemblage: implications for predicting the effects of climate change and altered flow regimes

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Larval fish assemblage recovery: a reflection of environmental change in a large degraded river

Estuaries are globally important to fisheries but face many anthropogenic stressors that reduce water quality and degrade benthic habitat. The Maumee River estuary has been degraded by industrial contaminants, high sediment and nutrient loads, channelization and elimination of surrounding wetlands, lessening its value as spawning habitat for fishes of Lake Erie. Regulation and better management practices (BMPs) in the watershed have improved the water quality in this estuary, which should result in a response of the biotic community. We compared recent (2010/2011) larval fish assemblage data to similar data from the 1970s (1976/1977) in order to identify changes due to improved water and habitat quality. Family‐level diversity was greater in recent study years compared to the 1970s and family richness increased from 6 to 10. In addition, the abundance of lithophilic spawning fishes was significantly greater in the recent study years. Increased diversity and family richness were consistent with increased water quality in the Maumee River whereas the observed increase in abundance of lithophilic spawners was consistent with an increase in the amount or quality of benthic habitat used by species in these families for spawning. Better wastewater management and agricultural practices in coastal watersheds can benefit the early life stages of fishes, thus benefitting coastal fisheries. Furthermore, larval fish assemblages may be useful indicators of biological integrity because of their sensitivities to environmental change. Routine sampling of estuarine larval fish assemblages could provide practitioners with insight into ecosystem changes and measure the response of the biotic community to restoration.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Effects of climate and land‐use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon

The joint and relative effects of future land‐use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land‐use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041–2070) and late (2071–2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best‐case land‐use scenario (“Sustainability”) alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse‐case land‐use scenario (“Fragmentation”) causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land‐use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land‐use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.     

A phenological shift in the time of recruitment of the shipworm,Teredo navalis L., mirrors marine climate change

For many species, seasonal changes in key environmental variables such as food availability, light, and temperature drive the timing (“phenology”) of major life‐history events. Extensive evidence from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats shows that global warming is changing the timings of many biological events; however, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larval recruitment in marine invertebrates. Here, we studied temperature‐related phenological shifts in the breeding season of the shipworm Teredo navalis (Mollusca, Bivalvia). We compared data for the recruitment period of T. navalis along the Swedish west coast during 2004–2006 with similar data from 1971–1973, and related differences in recruitment timing to changes in sea surface temperature over the same period. We found no significant shift in the timing of onset of recruitment over this ~30‐year time span, but the end of recruitment was an average of 26 days later in recent years, leading to significantly longer recruitment periods. These changes correlated strongly with increased sea surface temperatures and coincided with published thermal tolerances for reproduction in T. navalis. Our findings are broadly comparable with other reports of phenological shifts in marine species, and suggest that warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the likelihood of successful subannual reproduction and intensifying recruitment of T. navalis in this region.     

Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem‐based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1–4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015–2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January–March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015–16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015–16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014–2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

Seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton from space: impact of environmental forcing on a changing phenology (1998–2012)

Seasonal pulses of phytoplankton drive seasonal cycles of carbon fixation and particle sedimentation, and might condition recruitment success in many exploited species. Taking advantage of long‐term series of remotely sensed chlorophyll a (1998–2012), we analyzed changes in phytoplankton seasonality in the North Atlantic Ocean. Phytoplankton phenology was analyzed based on a probabilistic characterization of bloom incidence. This approach allowed us to detect changes in the prevalence of different seasonal cycles and, at the same time, to estimate bloom timing and magnitude taking into account uncertainty in bloom detection. Deviations between different sensors stressed the importance of a prolonged overlap between successive missions to ensure a correct assessment of phenological changes, as well as the advantage of semi‐analytical chlorophyll algorithms over empirical ones to reduce biases. Earlier and more intense blooms were detected in the subpolar Atlantic, while advanced blooms of less magnitude were common in the Subtropical gyre. In the temperate North Atlantic, spring blooms advanced their timing and decreased in magnitude, whereas fall blooms delayed and increased their intensity. At the same time, the prevalence of locations with a single autumn/winter bloom or with a bimodal seasonal cycle increased, in consonance with a poleward expansion of subtropical conditions. Changes in bloom timing and magnitude presented a clear signature of environmental factors, especially wind forcing, although changes on incident photosynthetically active radiation and sea surface temperature were also important depending on latitude. Trends in bloom magnitude matched changes in mean chlorophyll a during the study period, suggesting that seasonal peaks drive long‐term trends in chlorophyll a concentration. Our results link changes in North Atlantic climate with recent trends in the phenology of phytoplankton, suggesting an intensification of these impacts in the near future.     

Assessing the relative importance of temperature,discharge, and day length on the reproduction of an anadromous fish (Alosa alosa)

1. Climate change threatens anadromous fishes such as the allis shad (Alosa alosa) populations of which have declined since the 20th century in Europe. Sensitivity to climate change could be quantified by determining the fish’s spawning behaviour, defined as the timing of reproduction (i.e. spawning events) as a function of temporally variable environmental factors. The cues that fish use to time reproduction could determine their response to climate change.
2. A machine learning technique (boosted regression tree) was calibrated using a 14-year dataset composed of daily measures of environmental factors and fish occurrences during reproduction. The boosted regression tree provides complete insight into the complex relationship between the spawning probability, i.e. the probability for a fish to reproduce, and environmental factors that might evolve with climate change.
3. The spawning probability was positively related to day length (44.6%) and water temperature (34.7%) and negatively related to river discharge (20.7%). Optimal reproductive conditions corresponded to a difference in day length between 0 and 0.04 hr, a water temperature between 15 and 26°C and a river discharge between 55 and 665 m³/s; these conditions are currently being utilised by allis shad populations in the Garonne and Dordogne rivers, France.
4. This study highlights the relative influence of environmental factors on the observed spawning period as well as the evolution of habitat suitability during the 14-year period. The novelty of this study stems from assessing population process data, i.e. the occurrence of fish reproduction, rather than mere occurrence data in an ecological niche model study. Climate change may lead to a shift in spawning phenology, as the water temperature and river discharge will also change. Therefore, conservation plans need to integrate these effects on spawning grounds.

     

Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot

An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2–5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above‐average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone (Haliotis roei) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops (Amusium balloti), king (Penaeus latisulcatus) and tiger (P. esculentus) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre‐recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.     

Environmental change drives long‐term recruitment and growth variation in an estuarine fish

How individuals respond to environmental change determines the strength and direction of biological processes like recruitment and growth that underpin population productivity. Ascertaining the relative importance of environmental factors can, however, be difficult given the numerous mechanisms through which they affect individuals. This is especially true in dynamic and complex estuarine environments. Here, we develop long‐term otolith‐based indices of recruitment and growth for estuary perch Percalates colonorum (Bemm River, Australia), to explore the importance of intrinsic (individual, demographic) and extrinsic (hydrologic, climatic, density‐dependent) factors in driving estuarine fish productivity. Analyses involved a novel zero‐inflated specification of catch curve regression and mixed effects modelling. The 39 years of recruitment and 46 years of growth data, spanning a period of environmental change including severe drought, displayed considerable inter‐annual variation. Recruitment success was strongly related to high freshwater inflows during the spawning season, suggesting that these conditions act as spawning cues for adults and potentially provide favourable conditions for larvae. Individuals displayed age‐dependent growth, with highest rates observed at younger ages in years characterized by warm temperatures, and to a lesser degree, greater magnitude base inflow conditions. We detected systematic among‐year‐class growth differences, but these were not attributable to year class strength, suggesting that environmental conditions experienced by individuals as juveniles can have long‐lasting effects of greater importance to population productivity than density‐dependent growth responses. The primacy of temperature in driving growth variation highlights that under‐appreciated climatic variation can affect estuarine fish productivity through direct physiological and indirect food web mechanisms. We predict that climatic warming will promote individual growth in southerly populations of P. colonorum but concurrently limit recruitment due to forecast reductions in spawning season river discharge. Disparate trait responses are likely in other fishes as they respond to multiple and changing environmental drivers, making predictions of future population productivity challenging.     

Shifting dynamic forces in fish stock fluctuations triggered by age truncation?

Accumulating evidence shows that environmental fluctuations and exploitation jointly affect marine fish populations, and understanding their interaction is a key issue for fisheries ecology. In particular, it has been proposed that age truncation induced by fisheries exploitation may increase the population's sensitivity to climate. In this study, we use unique long‐term abundance data for the Northeast Arctic stock of cod (Gadus morhua) and the Norwegian Spring‐Spawning stock of herring (Clupea harengus), which we analyze using techniques based on age‐structured population matrices. After identifying time periods with different age distributions in the spawning stock, we use linear models to quantify the relative effect of exploitation and temperature on the population growth rates. For the two populations, age truncation was found to be associated with an increasing importance of temperature and a relatively decreasing importance of exploitation, while the population growth rate became increasingly sensitive to recruitment variations. The results suggested that the removal of older age classes reduced the buffering capacity of the population, thereby making the population growth rate more dependent on recruitment than adult survival and increasing the effect of environmental fluctuations. Age structure appeared as a key characteristic that can affect the response of fish stocks to climate variations and its consequences may be of key importance for conservation and management.     

An accurate tool for ageing Two‐spined Blackfish for use in determining timing of spawning in upland streams in the Brindabella ranges,ACT, Australia

To manage populations of threatened fish species in modified habitats and regulated rivers requires an understanding of their reproductive biology and spawning cues. In particular, accurate information about early life stages in these species can be used to facilitate programmes that maximise recruitment and breeding success. This study aimed to develop methods to accurately age early juvenile freshwater native fish, Two‐spined Blackfish, (Gadopsis bispinosus), to allow the determination of spawning date. This was accomplished through the examination of otolith microstructure in early juveniles. The age at which the first ring was deposited and the relationship between days and number of rings were determined using both field and aquarium trials. Field trials of marked juvenile otoliths revealed daily deposition of rings (1.02 ± 0.02 rings per day for fish sacrificed six days postmarking). The strength of this relationship lessened slightly as juveniles aged (0.92 ± 0.02 rings per day for fish sacrificed 13 days postmarking). The first otolith ring was deposited 7.50 ± 1.09 days after spawning. The enumeration of daily rings combined with knowledge of the commencement of ring deposition enabled accurate estimation of spawning date. The current study is the first to examine otolith microstructure in juvenile Two‐spined Blackfish allowing accurate determination of spawning date. While more research is required to accurately age older juveniles, this technique has the potential to precisely correlate spawning with environmental cues, facilitating better management of temperature and flow during breeding periods, potentially increasing spawning and recruitment of this endangered species.     

Genetic recruitment patterns are patchy and spatiotemporally unpredictable in a deep-water snapper (Lutjanus vivanus) sampled in fished and protected areas of western Puerto Rico

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have the potential to conserve biodiversity and improve fishery sustainability, but their efficacy depends on sound design and implementation, which requires an understanding of connectivity among reserves and between reserves and fished areas. Most studies of connectivity involving reserves focus on fishes with characteristics atypical for exploited species, making the results less applicable to fisheries management. Here, patterns of genomic diversity were assessed within and among geographic samples of juvenile of silk snapper, Lutjanus vivanus, collected in protected and fished areas on the western coast of Puerto Rico. The results indicate significant variation in spatiotemporal genetic recruitment patterns, with the two MPAs located off the shelf having partially decoupled recruitment processes from sites on the shelf. Spatial autocorrelation was found at distances less than 20 km within years, but the degree and pattern of spatial structure differed across years, suggesting that recruitment along the west coast of Puerto Rico originates from semi-independent units of spawners whose contribution varies in space and time. The results suggest that while MPAs may work to supplement fisheries where recruitment is spatiotemporally predictable, in species for which adult contribution is variable in space and time, other management strategies should be explored as well.

     

Ocean Productivity May Predict Recruitment of the Rainbow Wrasse (Coris julis)

Predicting recruitment fluctuations of fish populations remains the Holy Grail of fisheries science. While previous work has linked recruitment of reef fish to environmental variables including temperature, the demonstration of a robust relationship with productivity remains elusive. Despite decades of research, empirical evidence to support this critical link remains limited. Here we identify a consistent and strong relationship between recruitment of a temperate wrasse Coris julis, from temperate reefs in the mid-Atlantic region, with Chlorophyll, over contrasting scales, across multiple years. Additionally, we find that the correlation between Chlorophyll and recruitment is not simply masking a temperature-recruitment relationship. Understanding the potential mechanisms underlying recruitment variability, particularly as it relates to changing climate and ocean regimes, is a critical first step towards characterizing species’ vulnerability to mismatches between pulsed planktonic production and early pelagic life stages.     

Ocean warming,a rapid distributional shift,and the hybridization of a coastal fish species

Despite increasing awareness of large‐scale climate‐driven distribution shifts in the marine environment, no study has linked rapid ocean warming to a shift in distribution and consequent hybridization of a marine fish species. This study describes rapid warming (0.8 °C per decade) in the coastal waters of the Angola‐Benguela Frontal Zone over the last three decades and a concomitant shift by a temperature sensitive coastal fish species (Argyrosomus coronus) southward from Angola into Namibia. In this context, rapid shifts in distribution across Economic Exclusive Zones will complicate the management of fishes, particularly when there is a lack of congruence in the fisheries policy between nations. Evidence for recent hybridization between A. coronus and a congener, A. inodorus, indicate that the rapid shift in distribution of A. coronus has placed adults of the two species in contact during their spawning events. Ocean warming may therefore revert established species isolation mechanisms and alter the evolutionary history of fishes. While the consequences of the hybridization on the production of the resource remain unclear, this will most likely introduce additional layers of complexity to their management.