Persistence and production of perennial grasses under water deficits and extreme temperatures: importance of intraspecific vs. interspecific variability

Extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming. Grasslands cover a large proportion of the European continent and contribute to both agricultural production and ecosystem services through inter and intraspecific genetic variability. This study analysed the effects of summer droughts and heat waves on the persistence and production of perennial forage grasses. Mediterranean and temperate populations of Dactylis glomerata L. and Festuca arundinacea (Schreb.) were compared at both Mediterranean and temperate sites in France. By manipulating canopy temperatures and water availability, grass swards in the field were subjected to cumulative summer and spring water deficits (CSSWD) ranging from 329 to 707 mm to test different projected climatic conditions and extreme summer events. Under controlled summer heat waves (6–21 days at a mean daily canopy temperature higher than 30–35 °C), there was no increase in membrane damage to surviving aerial tissues. Plant stress was thus mainly generated through greater soil water deficit. Under the greatest CSSWD, annual biomass production was reduced on average by 60% and 30% with temperate and Mediterranean populations, respectively. Thresholds for a significant increase in summer tiller mortality were seen at CSSWD higher than 450 mm for temperate populations and 550 mm for Mediterranean populations. The latter displayed lower predawn leaf water potentials in summer and recovered through intense tillering in the subsequent seasons. Under the most extreme CSSWD, fewer than 20% of tillers of temperate populations survived and their nitrogen uptake ability was drastically altered. The higher potential productivity of Mediterranean populations in winter was associated with greater frost sensitivity. The identification of thresholds for vulnerability and the determination of the role of genetic diversity will improve the management of plant resilience and the design of new plant material to cope with climate change.     

Invader presence disrupts the stabilizing effect of species richness in plant community recovery after drought

Higher biodiversity can stabilize the productivity and functioning of grassland communities when subjected to extreme climatic events. The positive biodiversity–stability relationship emerges via increased resistance and/or recovery to these events. However, invader presence might disrupt this diversity–stability relationship by altering biotic interactions. Investigating such disruptions is important given that invasion by non‐native species and extreme climatic events are expected to increase in the future due to anthropogenic pressure. Here we present one of the first multisite invader × biodiversity × drought manipulation experiment to examine combined effects of biodiversity and invasion on drought resistance and recovery at three semi‐natural grassland sites across Europe. The stability of biomass production to an extreme drought manipulation (100% rainfall reduction; BE: 88 days, BG: 85 days, DE: 76 days) was quantified in field mesocosms with a richness gradient of 1, 3, and 6 species and three invasion treatments (no invader, Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens). Our results suggest that biodiversity stabilized community productivity by increasing the ability of native species to recover from extreme drought events. However, invader presence turned the positive and stabilizing effects of diversity on native species recovery into a neutral relationship. This effect was independent of the two invader's own capacity to recover from an extreme drought event. In summary, we found that invader presence may disrupt how native community interactions lead to stability of ecosystems in response to extreme climatic events. Consequently, the interaction of three global change drivers, climate extremes, diversity decline, and invasive species, may exacerbate their effects on ecosystem functioning.     

Sap‐feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate‐driven patterns

Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap‐feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant–herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap‐feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750–1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008–2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap‐feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap‐feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome‐shaped relationships between the loads of sap‐feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap‐feeders will increase by 0–45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65–210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap‐feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap‐feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant‐plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems.     

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: Implications for ecosystem function and stability

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO₂ had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid‐dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens.     

Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures

Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT_MAX) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT_MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT_MAX and egg‐to‐adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26–28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT_MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT_MAX. Although small shifts in CT_MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear.     

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm‐dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought‐related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool‐wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally ‘safe’ boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES.     

Interactions among shrub cover and the soil microclimate may determine future Arctic carbon budgets

Arctic and Boreal terrestrial ecosystems are important components of the climate system because they contain vast amounts of soil carbon (C). Evidence suggests that deciduous shrubs are increasing in abundance, but the implications for ecosystem C budgets remain uncertain. Using midsummer CO₂ flux data from 21 sites spanning 16° of latitude in the Arctic and Boreal biomes, we show that air temperature explains c. one‐half of the variation in ecosystem respiration (ER) and that ER drives the pattern in net ecosystem CO₂ exchange across ecosystems. Woody sites were slightly stronger C sinks compared with herbaceous communities. However, woody sites with warm soils (> 10 °C) were net sources of CO₂, whereas woody sites with cold soils (< 10 °C) were strong sinks. Our results indicate that transition to a shrub‐dominated Arctic will increase the rate of C cycling, and may lead to net C loss if soil temperatures rise.     

Influence of submerged macrophytes,temperature, and nutrient loading on the development of redox potential around the sediment–water interface in lakes

Redox potential is a significant factor in aquatic systems to regulate the availability of nutrients and some metals. To assess the driving variables regulating redox potential, background parameters (dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, chlorophyll-a, soluble reactive and total phosphorus content of water, coverage and height of submerged macrophytes) and redox potential profiles around the sediment–water interface (SWI) were measured in simulated shallow lake ecosystems. There were two nutrient regimes (enriched and non-enriched) and three temperature scenarios (unheated; +3.5°C; +5°C) installed in the experimental setups, which were constructed to study the effects of global climate change. Temperature did not have any detectable effect on redox potentials, and we presume that nutrient addition had only indirect positive effects through triggering phytoplankton dominance which causes macrophyte absence. When submerged macrophytes were present in high density (80–100% coverage), redox potentials at the SWI varied between 60–215 mV and the mean redox potential was 133 ± 34 mV (mean ± 1 SD). In contrast to this, when phytoplankton dominance was coupled to low macrophyte density (0–20% coverage), the range of redox potentials at the SWI was 160–290 mV and the mean redox potential was 218 ± 34 mV. The results revealed the primary importance of submersed macrophytes; macrophyte coverage determined alone the redox potential of the sediment–water interface by 81%. This study suggests that possible positive effects of macrophytes on redox potential can be suppressed by their negative effects in case of 80–100% coverage and total inhabitation of the water column.     

Interactive responses of old‐field plant growth and composition to warming and precipitation

As Earth's atmosphere accumulates carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases, Earth's climate is expected to warm and precipitation patterns will likely change. The manner in which terrestrial ecosystems respond to climatic changes will in turn affect the rate of climate change. Here we describe responses of an old‐field herbaceous community to a factorial combination of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three precipitation regimes (drought, ambient and rain addition) over 2 years. Warming suppressed total production, shoot production, and species richness, but only in the drought treatment. Root production did not respond to warming, but drought stimulated the growth of deeper (> 10 cm) roots by 121% in 1 year. Warming and precipitation treatments both affected functional group composition, with C₄ grasses and other annual and biennial species entering the C₃ perennial‐dominated community in ambient rainfall and rain addition treatments as well as in warmed treatments. Our results suggest that, in this mesic system, expected changes in temperature or large changes in precipitation alone can alter functional composition, but they have little effect on total herbaceous plant growth. However, drought limits the capacity of the entire system to withstand warming. The relative insensitivity of our study system to climate suggests that the herbaceous component of old‐field communities will not dramatically increase production in response to warming or precipitation change, and so it is unlikely to provide either substantial increases in forage production or a meaningful negative feedback to climate change later this century.     

Temperature and water stress affect plant–pollinator interactions in Borago officinalis (Boraginaceae)

Climate change alters the abiotic constraints faced by plants, including increasing temperature and water stress. These changes may affect flower development and production of flower rewards, thus altering plant–pollinator interactions. Here, we investigated the consequences of increased temperature and water stress on plant growth, floral biology, flower‐reward production, and insect visitation of a widespread bee‐visited species, Borago officinalis. Plants were grown for 5 weeks under three temperature regimes (21, 24, and 27°C) and two watering regimes (well‐watered and water‐stressed). Plant growth was more affected by temperature rise than water stress, and the reproductive growth was affected by both stresses. Vegetative traits were stimulated at 24°C, but impaired at 27°C. Flower development was mainly affected by water stress, which decreased flower number (15 ± 2 flowers/plant in well‐watered plants vs. 8 ± 1 flowers/plant under water stress). Flowers had a reduced corolla surface under temperature rise and water stress (3.8 ± 0.5 cm² in well‐watered plants at 21°C vs. 2.2 ± 0.1 cm² in water‐stressed plants at 27°C). Both constraints reduced flower‐reward production. Nectar sugar content decreased from 3.9 ± 0.3 mg/flower in the well‐watered plants at 21°C to 1.3 ± 0.4 mg/flower in the water‐stressed plants at 27°C. Total pollen quantity was not affected, but pollen viability decreased from 79 ± 4% in the well‐watered plants at 21°C to 25 ± 9% in the water‐stressed plants at 27°C. Flowers in the well‐watered plants at 21°C received at least twice as many bumblebee visits compared with the other treatments. In conclusion, floral modifications induced by abiotic stresses related to climate change affect insect behavior and alter plant–pollinator interactions.     

Long‐term variability and rainfall control of savanna fire regimes in equatorial East Africa

Fires burning the vast grasslands and savannas of Africa significantly influence the global carbon cycle. Projecting the impacts of future climate change on fire‐mediated biogeochemical processes in these dry tropical ecosystems requires understanding of how various climate factors influence regional fire regimes. To examine climate–vegetation–fire linkages in dry savanna, we conducted macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analysis on the sediments of the past 25 000 years from Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in equatorial East Africa. The charcoal‐inferred shifts in local and regional fire regimes were compared with previously published reconstructions of temperature, rainfall, seasonal drought severity, and vegetation dynamics to evaluate millennial‐scale drivers of fire occurrence. Our charcoal data indicate that fire in the dry lowland savanna of southeastern Kenya was not fuel‐limited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late Glacial, in contrast to many other regions throughout the world. Fire activity remained high at Lake Challa probably because the relatively high mean‐annual temperature (~22 °C) allowed productive C₄ grasses with high water‐use efficiency to dominate the landscape. From the LGM through the middle Holocene, the relative importance of savanna burning in the region varied primarily in response to changes in rainfall and dry‐season length, which were controlled by orbital insolation forcing of tropical monsoon dynamics. The fuel limitation that characterizes the region's fire regime today appears to have begun around 5000–6000 years ago, when warmer interglacial conditions coincided with prolonged seasonal drought. Thus, insolation‐driven variation in the amount and seasonality of rainfall during the past 25 000 years altered the immediate controls on fire occurrence in the grass‐dominated savannas of eastern equatorial Africa. These results show that climatic impacts on dry‐savanna burning are heterogeneous through time, with important implications for efforts to anticipate future shifts in fire‐mediated ecosystem processes.     

Survival and growth of microscopic fungi derived from tropical regions under future heat waves in the Pannonian Biogeographical Region

Warming and heat waves are predicted by different climate models in the near future in the Pannonian Biogeographical Region (PBR). These climatic effects may have impact on the prevalence and distribution of certain fungal species of this area. In this study the effects of predicted climate scenarios were tested on fungi being endemic or unintentionally introduced by global trade from regions of warm temperate climate. Common fungal species were selected for the study and exposed to heat waves during 7 days according to two climate scenarios: one moderately (RCP 4.5, T_avg = 27 °C, T_max = 35 °C, RH: 100%) and one strongly pessimistic (RCP 8.5, T_avg = 30 °C, T_max = 40 °C, RH: 100%) that include predictions for the Central Hungarian Region for July 2050. According to our results, Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus tubingensis and Fusarium strains introduced from tropical regions tolerated heat waves, unlike Penicillium and Talaromyces spp. and endemic Cladosporium spp. which were unable to grow under the RCP 8.5 treatment. The effects of climate change on fungi raise new issues not only from economic and health perspectives, but also in relation with plant protection and environment. Our results suggest that heat waves driven by climate change promote the colonization and growth of the tested strains of non-native fungi more likely than that of the native ones.     

Substantial differences in littoral fish community structure and dynamics in subtropical and temperate shallow lakes

1. Fish play a key role in the functioning of temperate shallow lakes by affecting nutrient exchange among habitats as well as lake trophic structure and dynamics. These processes are, in turn, strongly influenced by the abundance of submerged macrophytes, because piscivorous fish are often abundant at high macrophyte density. Whether this applies to warmer climates as well is virtually unknown. 2. To compare fish community structure and dynamics in plant beds between subtropical and temperate shallow lakes we conducted experiments with artificial submerged and free‐floating plant beds in a set of 10 shallow lakes in Uruguay (30°–35°S) and Denmark (55°–57°N), paired along a gradient of limnological characteristics. 3. The differences between regions were more pronounced than differences attributable to trophic state. The subtropical littoral fish communities were characterised by higher species richness, higher densities, higher biomass, higher trophic diversity (with predominance of omnivores and lack of true piscivores) and smaller body size than in the comparable temperate lakes. On average, fish densities were 93 ind. m⁻² (±10 SE) in the subtropical and 10 ind. m⁻² (±2 SE) in the temperate lakes. We found a twofold higher total fish biomass per unit of total phosphorus in the subtropical than in the temperate lakes, and as fish size is smaller in the former, the implication is that more energy reaches the littoral zone fish community of the warmer lakes. 4. Plant architecture affected the spatial distribution of fish within each climate zone. Thus, in the temperate zone fish exhibited higher densities among the artificial free‐floating plants while subtropical fish were denser in the artificial submerged plant beds. These patterns appeared in most lakes, regardless of water turbidity or trophic state. 5. The subtropical littoral fish communities resembled the fish communities typically occurring in temperate eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes. Our results add to the growing evidence that climate warming may lead to more complex and omnivory‐dominated food webs and higher density and dominance of smaller‐sized fish. This type of community structure may lead to a weakening of the trophic cascading effects commonly observed in temperate shallow lakes and a higher risk of eutrophication.     

Extreme rainfall events and cooling of sea turtle clutches: Implications in the face of climate warming

Understanding how climate change impacts species and ecosystems is integral to conservation. When studying impacts of climate change, warming temperatures are a research focus, with much less attention given to extreme weather events and their impacts. Here, we show how localized, extreme rainfall events can have a major impact on a species that is endangered in many parts of its range. We report incubation temperatures from the world's largest green sea turtle rookery, during a breeding season when two extreme rainfall events occurred. Rainfall caused nest temperatures to drop suddenly and the maximum drop in temperature for each rain‐induced cooling averaged 3.6°C (n = 79 nests, min = 1.0°C, max = 7.4°C). Since green sea turtles have temperature‐dependent sex determination, with low incubation temperatures producing males, such major rainfall events may have a masculinization effect on primary sex ratios. Therefore, in some cases, extreme rainfall events may provide a “get‐out‐of‐jail‐free card” to avoid complete feminization of turtle populations as climate warming continues.     

Bivalve aquaculture‐environment interactions in the context of climate change

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom‐up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve–phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom‐up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top‐down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top‐down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.     

Species richness effects on grassland recovery from drought depend on community productivity in a multisite experiment

Biodiversity can buffer ecosystem functioning against extreme climatic events, but few experiments have explicitly tested this. Here, we present the first multisite biodiversity × drought manipulation experiment to examine drought resistance and recovery at five temperate and Mediterranean grassland sites. Aboveground biomass production declined by 30% due to experimental drought (standardised local extremity by rainfall exclusion for 72–98 consecutive days). Species richness did not affect resistance but promoted recovery. Recovery was only positively affected by species richness in low‐productive communities, with most diverse communities even showing overcompensation. This positive diversity effect could be linked to asynchrony of species responses. Our results suggest that a more context‐dependent view considering the nature of the climatic disturbance as well as the productivity of the studied system will help identify under which circumstances biodiversity promotes drought resistance or recovery. Stability of biomass production can generally be expected to decrease with biodiversity loss and climate change.     

Plant community structure regulates responses of prairie soil respiration to decadal experimental warming

Soil respiration is recognized to be influenced by temperature, moisture, and ecosystem production. However, little is known about how plant community structure regulates responses of soil respiration to climate change. Here, we used a 13‐year field warming experiment to explore the mechanisms underlying plant community regulation on feedbacks of soil respiration to climate change in a tallgrass prairie in Oklahoma, USA. Infrared heaters were used to elevate temperature about 2 °C since November 1999. Annual clipping was used to mimic hay harvest. Our results showed that experimental warming significantly increased soil respiration approximately from 10% in the first 7 years (2000–2006) to 30% in the next 6 years (2007–2012). The two‐stage warming stimulation of soil respiration was closely related to warming‐induced increases in ecosystem production over the years. Moreover, we found that across the 13 years, warming‐induced increases in soil respiration were positively affected by the proportion of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) contributed by C₃ forbs. Functional composition of the plant community regulated warming‐induced increases in soil respiration through the quantity and quality of organic matter inputs to soil and the amount of photosynthetic carbon (C) allocated belowground. Clipping, the interaction of clipping with warming, and warming‐induced changes in soil temperature and moisture all had little effect on soil respiration over the years (all P > 0.05). Our results suggest that climate warming may drive an increase in soil respiration through altering composition of plant communities in grassland ecosystems.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Life‐history traits buffer against heat wave effects on predator–prey dynamics in zooplankton

In addition to an increase in mean temperature, extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which are likely to affect organism interactions, seasonal succession, and resting stage recruitment patterns in terrestrial as well as in aquatic ecosystems. For example, freshwater zooplankton with different life‐history strategies, such as sexual or parthenogenetic reproduction, may respond differently to increased mean temperatures and rapid temperature fluctuations. Therefore, we conducted a long‐term (18 months) mesocosm experiment where we evaluated the effects of increased mean temperature (4°C) and an identical energy input but delivered through temperature fluctuations, i.e., as heat waves. We show that different rotifer prey species have specific temperature requirements and use limited and species‐specific temperature windows for recruiting from the sediment. On the contrary, co‐occurring predatory cyclopoid copepods recruit from adult or subadult resting stages and are therefore able to respond to short‐term temperature fluctuations. Hence, these different life‐history strategies affect the interactions between cyclopoid copepods and rotifers by reducing the risk of a temporal mismatch in predator–prey dynamics in a climate change scenario. Thus, we conclude that predatory cyclopoid copepods with long generation time are likely to benefit from heat waves since they rapidly “wake up” even at short temperature elevations and thereby suppress fast reproducing prey populations, such as rotifers. In a broader perspective, our findings suggest that differences in life‐history traits will affect predator–prey interactions, and thereby alter community dynamics, in a future climate change scenario.     

Effects of simulated heat waves on an experimental plant–herbivore–predator food chain

Greater climatic variability and extreme climatic events are currently emerging as two of the most important facets of climate change. Predicting the effects of extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, is a major challenge because they may affect both organisms and trophic interactions, leading to complex responses at the community level. In this study, we set up a simple three‐level food chain composed of a sweet pepper plant, Capsicum annuum; an aphid, Myzus persicae; and a ladybeetle, Coleomegilla maculata, to explore the consequences of simulated heat waves on organism performance, trophic interactions, and population dynamics. We found that (1) heat waves do not affect plant biomass, significantly reduce the abundance and fecundity of aphids, and slightly affect ladybeetle developmental time and biomass, (2) heat waves decrease the impact of ladybeetles on aphid populations but do not modify the effect of aphids on plant biomass, and (3) food chains including predatory ladybeetles are more resistant to heat waves than a simple plant–aphid association, with aphid abundance being less influenced by heat waves in the presence of C. maculata. Our results suggest that more biodiverse ecosystems with predators exerting a strong biotic control are likely to be less influenced by abiotic factors and then more resistant to extreme climatic events than impoverished ecosystems lacking predators. Our study emphasizes the importance of assessing the effects of climatic change on each trophic level as well as on trophic interactions to further our understanding of the stability, resilience, and resistance of ecological communities under climatic forcing.