First report of Apatosaurus (Diplodocidae: Apatosaurinae) from the Cleveland-Lloyd Quarry in the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation of Utah: Abundance,distribution, paleoecology,and taphonomy of an endemic North American sauropod clade

A cervical vertebra preserved at the famous and productive Cleveland-Lloyd Dinosaur Quarry in the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation of Utah is that of an Apatosaurus, a sauropod dinosaur genus not previously recognized at the site and the first new dinosaur taxon identified at the site in years. The presence of Apatosaurus at a mudstone site dominated by other taxa, both theropod and sauropod, suggests a pattern of preservation within the Morrison Formation in which sites in fine-grained sediments yield dramatically uneven relative abundances of dinosaurs, with variable dominant taxa by site, compared with more time-averaged and attritional coarse-grained channel sandstone deposits. In addition, the continued demonstration of the wide-spread occurrence and abundance of Apatosaurus within the Morrison Formation, and the absence of its clade among diplodocid faunas on other continents, suggest that this group may have been endemic to North America during the Late Jurassic and that it may have originated there, though this is far from clear.     

Cranial biomechanics underpins high sauropod diversity in resource-poor environments

High megaherbivore species richness is documented in both fossil and contemporary ecosystems despite their high individual energy requirements. An extreme example of this is the Late Jurassic Morrison Formation, which was dominated by sauropod dinosaurs, the largest known terrestrial vertebrates. High sauropod diversity within the resource-limited Morrison is paradoxical, but might be explicable through sophisticated resource partitioning. This hypothesis was tested through finite-element analysis of the crania of the Morrison taxa Camarasaurus and Diplodocus. Results demonstrate divergent specialization, with Camarasaurus capable of exerting and accommodating greater bite forces than Diplodocus, permitting consumption of harder food items. Analysis of craniodental biomechanical characters taken from 35 sauropod taxa demonstrates a functional dichotomy in terms of bite force, cranial robustness and occlusal relationships yielding two polyphyletic functional ‘grades’. Morrison taxa are widely distributed within and between these two morphotypes, reflecting distinctive foraging specializations that formed a biomechanical basis for niche partitioning between them. This partitioning, coupled with benefits associated with large body size, would have enabled the high sauropod diversities present in the Morrison Formation. Further, this provides insight into the mechanisms responsible for supporting the high diversities of large megaherbivores observed in other Mesozoic and Cenozoic communities, particularly those occurring in resource-limited environments.     

Comparative cranial myology and biomechanics of Plateosaurus and Camarasaurus and evolution of the sauropod feeding apparatus

Sauropodomorpha represents an important group of Mesozoic megaherbivores, and includes the largest terrestrial animals ever known. It was the first dinosaur group to become abundant and widespread, and its members formed a significant component of terrestrial ecosystems from the Late Triassic until the end of the Cretaceous. Both of these factors have been explained by their adoption of herbivory, but understanding the evolution of sauropodomorph feeding has been hampered by the scarcity of biomechanical studies. To address this, the jaw adductor musculature of the basal sauropodomorph Plateosaurus and the sauropod Camarasaurus have been reconstructed. These reconstructions provide boundary conditions for finite element models to assess differences in structural performance between the two taxa. Results demonstrate that Camarasaurus was capable of much greater bite forces than Plateosaurus, due to greater relative adductor muscle mass and shape changes to the mandible. The skull and mandible of Camarasaurus are also ‘stronger’ under static biting. The Plateosaurus mandible appears to compromise structural efficiency and force transmission in order to maintain relatively high jaw closure speed. This supports suggestions of facultative omnivory in basal sauropodomorph taxa. The expanded mandibular symphysis and ‘lateral plates’ of sauropods each lead to greater overall craniomandibular robustness, and may have been especially important in accommodating forces related to asymmetric loading. The functional roles of these characters, and observed general shape changes in increasing skull robustness, are consistent with hypotheses linking bulk‐herbivory with the origin of Sauropoda and the evolution of gigantism.     

Field evaluation of abundance estimates under binomial and multinomial N-mixture models

Assessing and modelling abundance from animal count data is a very common task in ecology and management. Detection is arguably never perfect, but modern hierarchical models can incorporate detection probability and yield abundance estimates that are corrected for imperfect detection. Two variants of these models rely on counts of unmarked individuals, or territories (binomial N-mixture models, or binmix), and on detection histories based on territory-mapping data (multinomial N-mixture models or multimix). However, calibration studies which evaluate these two N-mixture model approaches are needed. We analysed conventional territory-mapping data (three surveys in 2014 and four in 2015) using both binmix and multimix models to estimate abundance for two common avian cavity-nesting forest species (Great Tit Parus major and Eurasian Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus). In the same study area, we used two benchmarks: occupancy data from a dense nestbox scheme and total number of detected territories. To investigate variance in estimates due to the territory assignment, three independent ornithologists conducted territory assignments. Nestbox occupancy yields a minimum number of territories, as some natural cavities may have been used, and binmix model estimates were generally higher than this benchmark. Estimates using the multimix model were slightly more precise than binmix model estimates. Depending on the person assigning the territories, the multimix model estimates became quite different, either overestimating or underestimating the ‘truth’. We conclude that N-mixture models estimated abundance reliably, even for our very small sample sizes. Territory-mapping counts depended on territory assignment and this carried over to estimates under the multimix model. This limitation has to be taken into account when abundance estimates are compared between sites or years. Whenever possible, accounting for such hidden heterogeneity in the raw data of bird surveys, via including a ‘territory editor’ factor, is recommended. Distributing the surveys randomly (in time and space) to editors may also alleviate this problem.     

Seasonal patterns of winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus abundance and reproductive condition on the New York Bight continental shelf

To resolve varied and sometimes conflicting accounts of spawning and habitat characteristics for winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus, seasonal patterns in abundance and reproductive condition were investigated in the New York Bight, near the southern edge of their current reproductive range. Fish were collected from trawl surveys on the inner continental shelf from October 2006 to October 2007. Pseudopleuronectes americanus were most abundant during January and April surveys, were rarely collected in August, with intermediate abundances in June and October. Measurements of fish condition [hepato‐somatic index (I_H), condition factor (K) and the per cent dry mass of muscle tissue (%M_D)] and reproductive condition [gonado‐somatic index (I_G)] were determined to evaluate seasonal changes in energy accumulation and depletion and reproduction. Males and females had similar patterns in body and reproductive condition, although the magnitude of change was greater for females. I_H values were highest during spring and early summer, suggesting increased feeding following spawning. K and %M_D increased through spring and summer then declined in the autumn and winter concurrent with gonadal development. Gonads began developing in the autumn, and in January, I_G values approached spawning levels, with many spent individuals collected in spring. Within these general patterns, however, there was a large degree of variability among individuals, and a few mature non‐reproductive (‘skipped spawning’) females were observed. In the period after spawning, increased energy intake, indicated by increased I_H, may influence reproductive output since this energy is gradually transferred to the muscle and used for gonadal development in the forthcoming year. The occurrence of ripening individuals on the inner continental shelf in January suggests that these fish either rapidly move into estuaries to spawn by February–March or they remain on the inner shelf to spawn, or some combination of these. Future studies should evaluate these possibilities, as both estuarine and inner shelf habitats are potentially affected by activities such as dredging, sand dredging and wind energy development.     

Downsizing a giant: re-evaluating Dreadnoughtus body mass

Estimates of body mass often represent the founding assumption on which biomechanical and macroevolutionary hypotheses are based. Recently, a scaling equation was applied to a newly discovered titanosaurian sauropod dinosaur (Dreadnoughtus), yielding a 59 300 kg body mass estimate for this animal. Herein, we use a modelling approach to examine the plausibility of this mass estimate for Dreadnoughtus. We find that 59 300 kg for Dreadnoughtus is highly implausible and demonstrate that masses above 40 000 kg require high body densities and expansions of soft tissue volume outside the skeleton several times greater than found in living quadrupedal mammals. Similar results from a small sample of other archosaurs suggests that lower-end mass estimates derived from scaling equations are most plausible for Dreadnoughtus, based on existing volumetric and density data from extant animals. Although volumetric models appear to more tightly constrain dinosaur body mass, there remains a clear need to further support these models with more exhaustive data from living animals. The relative and absolute discrepancies in mass predictions between volumetric models and scaling equations also indicate a need to systematically compare predictions across a wide size and taxonomic range to better inform studies of dinosaur body size.     

In silico optimization of pharmacokinetic properties and receptor binding affinity simultaneously: a ‘parallel progression approach to drug design’ applied to β-blockers

The present work exploits the potential of in silico approaches for minimizing attrition of leads in the later stages of drug development. We propose a theoretical approach, wherein ‘parallel’ information is generated to simultaneously optimize the pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of lead candidates. β-blockers, though in use for many years, have suboptimal PKs; hence are an ideal test series for the ‘parallel progression approach’. This approach utilizes molecular modeling tools viz. hologram quantitative structure activity relationships, homology modeling, docking, predictive metabolism, and toxicity models. Validated models have been developed for PK parameters such as volume of distribution (log V_d) and clearance (log Cl), which together influence the half-life (t_1/2) of a drug. Simultaneously, models for PD in terms of inhibition constant pK_i have been developed. Thus, PK and PD properties of β-blockers were concurrently analyzed and after iterative cycling, modifications were proposed that lead to compounds with optimized PK and PD. We report some of the resultant re-engineered β-blockers with improved half-lives and pK_i values comparable with marketed β-blockers. These were further analyzed by the docking studies to evaluate their binding poses. Finally, metabolic and toxicological assessment of these molecules was done through in silico methods. The strategy proposed herein has potential universal applicability, and can be used in any drug discovery scenario; provided that the data used is consistent in terms of experimental conditions, endpoints, and methods employed. Thus the ‘parallel progression approach’ helps to simultaneously fine-tune various properties of the drug and would be an invaluable tool during the drug development process.     

An associated partial skeleton of Jainosaurus cf. septentrionalis (Dinosauria: Sauropoda) from the Late Cretaceous of Chhota Simla,Central India

Abstract: The Cretaceous dinosaur fauna of Indo‐Pakistan has remained poorly understood because of a lack of associated and articulated remains, proliferation of named species, and an incomplete understanding of the dinosaur clades present (e.g. abelisaurid theropods; titanosaur sauropods). Continued work on existing collections, and new discoveries of dinosaur material from India, Pakistan and elsewhere in Gondwana, has begun to resolve the composition and affinities of Indo‐Pakistani dinosaurs. Here, we provide archival evidence that documents associations between postcranial remains of a sauropod collected from Chhota Simla, India by C. A. Matley in the 1930s and later described as ‘Titanosaurus sp.’ This partial skeleton, which represents only the fifth such documented association from Indo‐Pakistan, is referable to Jainosaurus cf. septentrionalis and provides a fuller understanding of its anatomy and phylogenetic affinities.     

Taxonomic and phylogenetic reassessment of the early neotheropod dinosaur Camposaurus arizonensis from the Late Triassic of North America

Abstract: Camposaurus arizonensis, a small theropod dinosaur from the early–middle Norian of Arizona (USA), is widely considered the oldest known neotheropod. However, despite its importance, Camposaurus is the subject of taxonomic and phylogenetic uncertainty and is often considered a nomen dubium, largely because of a fragmentary holotype. We here reassess the holotype of Camposaurus and identify two autapomorphies: the posterior edge of the tibial articular surface for the fibula offset as a sharp and prominent ridge and the absence of an anteriorly expanded medial condyle of the astragalus. We therefore consider Camposaurus to be a valid and diagnostic taxon of basal theropod dinosaur. For the first time, we include Camposaurus in a phylogenetic analysis, which confirms its neotheropod placement and recovers it as a close relative of Coelophysis rhodesiensis within Coelophysoidea sensu stricto. The position of Camposaurus as the oldest neotheropod provides an important calibration point, but necessitates long ghost lineages, indicating that our knowledge of the early evolutionary history of theropod dinosaurs is still patchy. Furthermore, our phylogenetic analysis recovers a polytomy at the base of Neotheropoda, as most parsimonious trees disagree in recovering a monophyletic or paraphyletic ‘traditional’ Coelophysoidea. This suggests that basal theropod phylogeny remains in a state of flux, and the monophyly of ‘traditional’ Coelophysoidea remains an open question.     

Abundance and abundance change in the world's parrots

Estimates of population density and abundance change (differences in density or encounter rates across land uses or time periods) form the cornerstone of much of our knowledge of species' responses to environmental conditions, extinction risks and potential conservation actions. Gathering baseline data on abundance of the world's c. 10 000 bird species and monitoring trends in the light of rapidly changing environmental and harvest pressures is a daunting prospect. With this in mind, we review literature on population densities and abundance changes across habitats in one of the world's largest and most threatened bird families, the parrots (Psittaciformes), to identify gaps in knowledge, model phylogenetic and other influences on abundance, and seek patterns that might guide thinking for data‐deficient taxa and situations. Density estimates were found for only 25% of 356 parrot species. Abundance change data were similarly limited and most came from logged forest, with very few comparisons across different anthropogenic habitats. Threatened species were no more likely to have a density estimate than non‐threatened species, and were less likely to have estimates of abundance change. Exploratory generalized linear mixed models indicated that densities are most influenced by genus, and are generally higher within protected areas than outside. It is unclear whether the latter effect stems from habitat protection, a reduction in poaching or both, but protected areas appear to be beneficial for parrots. Individual members of the ‘parakeet’ genera (e.g. Pyrrhura and Eos) were predictably abundant, whereas within larger‐bodied genera such as Ara (macaws), species were predictably uncommon (< 10 individuals per km²) and there was a long tail of extreme rarity. Responses of parrots to habitat change were highly variable, with natural variation in parrot abundance across different primary forests as great as that between primary forest and human‐altered forests. The speed at which environmental change is affecting the world's parrots far outstrips that of our current capacity to track their abundance and we assess the likely scale of data deficiency in this and other bird groups. Developments in survey and analysis methods such as variants of distance sampling and the integration of niche modelling with point density estimation may increase our effectiveness in monitoring parrots and other important and threatened bird groups.     

Using GIS techniques to model the distribution of the economically important xate palm Chamaedorea ernesti‐augusti within the Greater Maya Mountains,Belize

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to model the distribution of the fishtail xate palm (´Chamaedorea ernesti‐augusti) and to investigate the effectiveness of using geostatistical techniques to map its distribution. The leaves of the Central American xate palm C. ernesti‐augusti are now extensively cut for the flori‐cultural industry; across its range, populations are being over‐harvested. In Central America, the Greater Maya Mountains (GMM), Belize are widely believed to be an abundance ‘hotspot’ for this species. In total, 220 sample sites were systematically located throughout the GMM, based on a fixed distance interval using the accessible track/road network. Species counts and environmental data were collected from each 20 m × 20 m plot. Statistical analyses were carried out using GenStat and Arc‐GIS. We used several semivariogram models, within bespoke GenStat procedures, to map the log‐transformed xate abundance data. Validation of models used the official GenStat Kcross‐validation procedure. Of the six models investigated in detail, the ‘Bounded Linear’ model outperformed all others and most effectively represented the spatial distribution of C. ernesti‐augusti. Environmental factors were found to have low statistical significance for the distribution of the xate palm. The predicted map shows that the geographic abundance was dominated by low xate counts; xat´ abundance values for this region appear to have been consistently overestimated in the literature. Our study showed the effectiveness of using local modelling techniques to map xate abundances and reveal local abundance hotspots. It highlighted areas needing further survey work and the need for collecting more environmental data to improve the prediction of plant distribution in this region using niche and/or co‐kriging modelling approaches. Our study suggested that the xate resource in Belize needs a careful conservation approach.     

Mesoherbivores affect grasshopper communities in a megaherbivore-dominated South African savannah

African savannahs are among the few places on earth where diverse communities of mega- and meso-sized ungulate grazers dominate ecosystem functioning. Less conspicuous, but even more diverse, are the communities of herbivorous insects such as grasshoppers, which share the same food. Various studies investigated the community assembly of these groups separately, but it is poorly known how ungulate communities shape grasshopper communities. Here, we investigated how ungulate species of different body size alter grasshopper communities in a South African savannah. White rhino is the most abundant vertebrate herbivore in our study site. Other common mesoherbivores include buffalo, zebra and impala. We hypothesized that white rhinos would have greater impact than mesoherbivores on grasshopper communities. Using 10-year-old exclosures, at eight sites we compared the effects of ungulates on grasshopper communities in three nested treatments: (i) unfenced plots (‘control plots’) with all vertebrate herbivores present, (ii) plots with a low cable fence, excluding white rhino (‘megaherbivore exclosures’), and (iii) plots with tall fences, excluding all herbivores larger than rodents (‘complete ungulate exclosures’). In each plot, we collected data of vegetation structure, grass and grasshopper community composition. Complete ungulate exclosures contained 30 % taller vegetation than megaherbivore exclosures and they were dominated by different grass and grasshopper species. Grasshoppers in complete ungulate exclosures were on average 3.5 mm longer than grasshoppers in megaherbivore exclosures, possibly due to changes in plant communities or vegetation structure. We conclude that surprisingly, in this megaherbivore hotspot, mesoherbivores, instead of megaherbivores, most strongly affect grasshopper communities.     

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains

Large grazers are visible and valuable indicators of the effects of projected changes in temperature and drought on grasslands. The grasslands of the Great Plains have supported the greatest number of bison (Bison bison; Linnaeus, 1758) since prehistoric times. We tested the hypothesis that body mass (BM, kg) and asymptotic body mass (ABM, kg) of Bison decline with rising temperature and increasing drought over both temporal and spatial scales along the Great Plains. Temporally, we modeled the relationship of annual measures of BM and height (H, m) of 5,781 Bison at Wind Cave National Park (WICA) from 1966 to 2015. We used Gompertz equations of BM against age to estimate ABM in decadal cohorts; both females and males decreased from the 1960s to the 2010s. Male ABM was variable but consistently larger (699 vs. 441 kg) than female ABM. We used local mean decadal temperature (MDT) and local mean decadal Palmer Drought Severity Index (dPDSI) to model the effects of climate on ABM. Drought decreased ABM temporally (?16 kg/local dPDSI) at WICA. Spatially, we used photogrammetry to measure body height (H_E) of 773 Bison to estimate BM_E in 19 herds from Saskatchewan to Texas, including WICA. Drought also decreased ABM spatially (?16 kg/local dPDSI) along the Great Plains. Temperature decreased ABM both temporally at WICA (?115 kg/°C local MDT) and spatially (?1 kg/°C local MDT) along the Great Plains. Our data indicate that temperature and drought drive Bison ABM presumably by affecting seasonal mass gain. Bison body size is likely to decline over the next five decades throughout the Great Plains due to projected increases in temperatures and both the frequency and intensity of drought.     

Teeth of enigmatic neoselachian sharks and an ornithischian dinosaur from the uppermost Triassic of Lons-le-Saunier (Jura, France)

Shark teeth and an ornithischian dinosaur tooth are described from a new palynologically dated Rhaetian locality at Lons-le-Saunier (Jura, France). The structure of the enameloid of the teeth ofSynechodus rhaeticus has been studied, but this appears quite different from the usual pattern seen in neoselachian sharks, making the precise relationships of this species difficult to determine. On the other hand,‘Hybodus’ minor, which has long be thought to be a hybodont shark, is included among the Synechodontiformes. The find of the tooth of an ornithischian dinosaur is also reported. Study of the Lonsle-Saunier site seems to indicate a change in the marine faunas during the Rhaetian transgression, preferentially affecting the neoselachian sharks, which increase in abundance, and thedurophasous bony fishes, which become dominated bySareodon tomicus.     

Arylsulphatases in human brain: assay, some properties, and distribution

Abstract— Arylsulphatases (aryl-sulphate sulphohydrolases; E.C. 3.1.6.1) in human brain were studied using a highly sensitive fluorometric technique based on the use of 4-methyl-umbelliferone sulphate (MUS) as substrate. In the dialysed homogenate of human brain at least two enzymes could be distinguished on the basis of pH optima and substrate concentration. One MUS-sulphatase, of the ‘insoluble’ type, exhibited a pH optimum of 6–9 and an apparent K_m of 0.05 mM, whereas the second, belonging to the ‘soluble’ type, exhibited pH optimum of 6–0 and an apparent K_m of 6.25 mM. Pronounced activities of the two arylsulphatases were observed in the 18,000 g sediment. About 25 per cent of the total tissue activity of the ‘soluble’-type MUS-sulphatase was found in the soluble subcellular fraction. However, this enzyme was completely solubilized by extraction of acetone-dried human brain with acetate buffer.     

Assessing the difference between sociodental and normative approaches to assessing prosthetic dental treatment needs in dentate older people

Objective: To illustrate differences in assessed need using normative and sociodental approaches to assess prosthetic treatment needs of dentate older people. Design: A cross‐sectional study using non‐random sample. Setting: Metropolitan area of Chiang Mai, Thailand. Subjects: 707 older individuals, 549 of the total sample were dentate, living independently, aged 60 to 74 years. Results: The dentate population examined consisted of 289 classified as ‘normal health’ and 44 with a nutritional problem. Of the total population, 60% (333) had a normative need for partial dentures. Excluding the 44 with a nutritional problem, 50% (146) of the NTM group had ‘impact‐related treatment need’ and of the latter 146, 69% (102) had a high propensity for health behaviour. 41% of the 102 who had ‘impact‐related’ and ‘propensity related treatment need’ had ‘accessible treatment need’. That is 14.5 per 100 of those with normative need. The gap between normative and ‘accessible need’ was greater among those with ‘general health related treatment need’ due to underweight. Of the 44 with a NTM and had a health problem, 45% (20) had a “propensity related treatment need”. 40% of the group with a ‘propensity related treatment need’ had ‘accessible treatment need’. Overall of the 44 older people with a normative need for a prosthesis and who had a health problem, only 2.4% had ‘accessible treatment need’ mainly due to lack of finance. If the treatment were subsidised then 45% of those with ‘propensity related treatment need’ would be eligible for treatment. Conclusion: Large differences of estimated treatment need were found between a socio‐dental and a normative approach to assess prosthetic dental treatment needs of older Thai people.     

Vital statistics,absolute abundance and preservation rate of Tyrannosaurus rex

I present a simulation model on vital statistics, absolute abundance (N, total number of individuals that ever lived) and preservation rate (p, minimum number of fossils known divided by N) of Tyrannosaurus rex. It is based on a published age-structured population model that assumes a reptile or bird-like reproduction for T. rex to estimate its age-specific survival rates. My model applies input variables and equations from a recently published model on N and p. This model yielded 2.5 billion T. rex individuals (N) and one fossil per 80 million individuals (p). The average N values calculated by my model were at minimum 27.6% and p values at maximum 361.5% that of a previous model and uncertainties in all output variables were always larger in my model. The equation on output variable ‘population density’ introduced the largest uncertainty to N and p. The output variable ‘generation time’ differed the most between models, but for N and p, the huge size of the input area modelled and geological longevity minimized this difference. Unlike my model, the generation time as well as life expectancies, gross reproduction rates, and reproductive values of individuals calculated from the previous model all strongly contradicted our current understanding of the biology of T. rex and of other theropods. Their values also disagreed with those of large extant reptiles, birds and mammals. All of these shortcomings of the previous model favour the assessment of individual and population characteristics of T. rex and of other extinct species using my model.     

Estimating the energy expenditure of free‐ranging polar bears using tri‐axial accelerometers: A validation with doubly labeled water

Measures of energy expenditure can be used to inform animal conservation and management, but methods for measuring the energy expenditure of free‐ranging animals have a variety of limitations. Advancements in biologging technologies have enabled the use of dynamic body acceleration derived from accelerometers as a proxy for energy expenditure. Although dynamic body acceleration has been shown to strongly correlate with oxygen consumption in captive animals, it has been validated in only a few studies on free‐ranging animals. Here, we use relationships between oxygen consumption and overall dynamic body acceleration in resting and walking polar bears Ursus maritimus and published values for the costs of swimming in polar bears to estimate the total energy expenditure of 6 free‐ranging polar bears that were primarily using the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Energetic models based on accelerometry were compared to models of energy expenditure on the same individuals derived from doubly labeled water methods. Accelerometer‐based estimates of energy expenditure on average predicted total energy expenditure to be 30% less than estimates derived from doubly labeled water. Nevertheless, accelerometer‐based measures of energy expenditure strongly correlated (r² = 0.70) with measures derived from doubly labeled water. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations in dynamic body acceleration as a measure of total energy expenditure while also further supporting its use as a proxy for instantaneous, detailed energy expenditure in free‐ranging animals.     

A model for avian primary moult

The regression methods frequently used to estimate the parameters associated with primary moult in birds are unsatisfactory. Results obtained using least squares regression, and various ad hoc adaptations, are so obviously incorrect that many authors have fitted lines ‘by eye’ (Newton 1968, Thomas & Dartnall 1971, Elliott et al. 1976, Morrison 1976, Appleton & Minton 1978). In a comparison of seven regression methods, estimates of the average starting date varied between 29 June and 31 July, completion date between 2 and 24 October, and duration of moult between 72 and 109 days for the Redshank Tringa totanus, in spite of the very large sample of 1482 observations (Summers et al. 1983). In this paper we present a new approach to the analysis of primary moult and develop a mathematical model specifically designed for moult data.