用非线性模型估测恒温和变温下棉铃虫蛹的发育率

为了深入分析和探讨昆虫发育与环境温度的关系, 在恒温（15~37℃）和交替变温（12/18~34/40℃）下测定了棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹的发育历期(d),分别用线性模型和非线性模型（Logan模型﹑Lactin模型和王氏模型）拟合其发育率(1/d)数据。结果表明,这3个非线性模型能更准确地描述发育率与温度之间的曲线关系,判定系数（R2）在0.9878～0.9991之间。对全部观测数据的进一步研究表明,只要有6个分布合适的观测数据,就可以用这些非线性模型获得相当满意的估测效果。如果缺乏高温下的测定数据,用非线性模型预测的昆虫发育率可能失真。分析了蛹在恒温和变温下发育率差异的可能原因,讨论了应用这3个非线性模型预测蛹期发育的优点和缺点,指出用非线性模型取代线性日·度模型进行害虫发生预测和益虫饲养管理的合理性和必要性。     

温度与昆虫生长发育关系模型的发展与应用

昆虫作为变温动物,对温度变化更为敏感。研究温度变化对昆虫生长、发育的影响有重要理论和实践意义。目前已构建了多个描述温度与昆虫增长速率的关系模型,用于解释温度对昆虫发育速率的影响。这些模型大体可分为两类:没有热动力学基础的纯描述性模型和有热动力学基础的应用性模型。本文在对现有的有关温度变化与昆虫生长发育关系的11个模型进行评述的基础上,结合作者近年来的研究,重点介绍了迄今为止国际上最为合理的、用以反映温度对昆虫发育速率影响的Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto模型,并利用这些模型拟合了一组温发育速率数据用以展示这些模型的应用。     

使用SSI模型描述昆虫温发育速率的SAS程序

Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto(SSI)模型是用来描述温度对昆虫发育速率影响的一个重要数学方程,它既能够很好地拟合温发育速率的数据,又能提供若干个重要温参数,特别是内禀最适发育温度(TΦ)。此温度反映了昆虫生存的最佳温环境。然而,由于SSI模型的参数过多,结构显得较为复杂,给实际的数据拟合带来了困难。一个基于R平台的软件包已经被开发出来,专门用于执行SSI模型的参数拟合。但目前由于国内许多研究者青睐于使用SAS统计软件,所以本文提供了一个基于SAS统计软件的程序,用以快速拟合SSI模型的参数。通过拟合棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera Hübner蛹期的温发育速率数据,发现此SAS程序具有很好的拟合效果,同时进一步证明了SSI模型对描述温度对昆虫发育速率影响的有效性。     

褐飞虱种群动态的模拟模型(英文)

本文根据种群生命系统的概念和分析,组建了模拟褐飞虱(Nilaparvata lugens St(?)l)种群动态的计算机模型。该模型包括一个多列矩阵和一组差分方程。多列矩阵用于描述褐飞虱种群的龄期重叠现象及其年龄——虫态结构;差分方程用于计算种群的增长过程。在建模时,我们把10日度作为褐飞虱发育的一个年龄,用天作为模拟的时间步长,同时利用了褐飞虱特定龄期的发育速率,根据生命表数据计算的特定龄期存活率、长翅型成虫的迁飞类型及数量、雌成虫的生殖力等有关资料。经过采用福建省龙海、福州和沙县三个地方1896—1990的实际观测资料与模型的预测结果进行比较,验证了该模型的有效性和准确性;通过改变模型的主要输入变量,得到了各种不同的输出结果,由此对模型的行为及真实性作了分析。笔者认为该模型可用于进一步研究褐飞虱的生物学、生态学以及综合治理的基础,稍作改进,也可用于描述其它昆虫的种群生命系统。     

温度对党参害虫烟草甲实验种群生长发育的影响

以中药材党参(Codonopsis pilosula)为寄主食料,在人工气候箱内,研究了温度对烟草甲(Lasioderma serricorne)卵、幼虫和蛹的生长和发育的影响;计算了烟草甲各虫态的发育起点温度和有效积温;通过Logistic模型及"王-兰-丁"模型对温度与烟草甲各虫态之间的关系进行拟合,优化拟合温度与烟草卵和幼虫发育关系的Logistic方程6个,温度与烟草甲幼虫发育关系的"王-兰-丁"方程5个。结果表明,烟草甲卵、幼虫、蛹及卵-蛹期的发育起点温度分别为16.51℃、11.07℃、11.78℃和12.20℃,其卵、幼虫、蛹及卵-蛹期的发育有效积温分别为89.59、669.53、137.12和912.72日度;温度的升高有利于烟草甲的各虫态的生长和发育;"王-兰-丁"模型拟合对研究较宽温度幅度的昆虫发育与温度之间的关系拟合效果优于Logistic模型。本研究结果可为危害储藏期中药材的烟草甲种群数量控制技术提供技术支撑。     

昆虫发育模型研究进展

<正> 昆虫发育模型描述温度对昆虫发育过程的影响。目前,国内外广泛使用的昆虫发育模型归纳起来有3类:(1)发育速率模型;(2)发育时间分布模型;(3)随机发育模型。下面简要介绍各类模型的特点及应用情况。     

基于生理发育时间的加工番茄生育期模拟模型

综合考虑温度和光照对加工番茄生理发育效应的影响,引入了品种基本发育因子（IDF）,通过分析不同类型加工番茄的生育期与环境因素的动态关系,建立了基于生理发育时间（PDTv）的加工番茄生育期模拟模型,并利用不同年份、生态区、品种、种植方式的试验资料对模型进行了检验.结果表明：所建模型对加工番茄从播种到各个发育阶段（出苗、开花、坐果、红熟和拉秧）天数的模拟值与观测值的回归估计标准误差（RMSE）分别为1.09、2.03、2.05、2.77和2.53 d,该模型的预测精度明显高于基于有效积温的发育模型（其RMSE分别为1.90、6.63、6.33、9.36 和6.84 d）.     

温度对浙江天童国家森林公园9种鳞翅目昆虫繁殖力的影响

设置16、19、22、25、28和31 ℃ 6个温度梯度条件,研究了温度对浙江天童国家森林公园9种鳞翅目昆虫繁殖力的影响.结果表明： 9种鳞翅目昆虫在19～28 ℃范围内可顺利产卵并孵化,随温度升高成虫的产卵前期缩短;四川尾尺蛾等8种昆虫在22 ℃时繁殖力最强,之美苔蛾最大繁殖力出现在25 ℃;9种昆虫的卵期随温度升高而缩短;产卵同步性和卵孵化同步性最大值均出现在较高的温度条件下.四川尾尺蛾卵的发育起点温度较低,为9.52 ℃,其他8种昆虫卵的发育起点温度在13.32～14.72 ℃;四川尾尺蛾卵的有效积温为120.82日·度,显著高于其他8种昆虫(45.09～68.30日·度）.研究得到的有效积温回归方程可初步用于9种昆虫发生的预测.     

基于支持向量回归的棉铃虫蛹发育历期估测

温度与发育速率关系模拟是昆虫学研究的一个重要内容, 传统基于经验风险最小的非线性参数模型(Logan模型、Lactin模型和王氏模型)存在诸多弊端。本文基于结构风险最小的改进支持向量回归（SVR）研究温度与棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹发育历期关系。结果表明: 与传统非线性模型相比, SVR模型性能优异; 基于全部92个样本, SVR模型拟合和留一法预测的决定系数R²分别为0.998和0.996, 估测的蛹期三基点温度更可信。从全部样本中依温度均匀选取部分样本实施独立预测, 当训练集为20个样本时, SVR模型独立预测的R²为0.981, 优于传统非线性模型中独立预测最佳的Lactin模型（R²=0.958）; 当训练集进一步减少到12个样本时, SVR模型的R²仅降低到0.964, 而传统非线性模型均已不适用。结果提示SVR模型在小样本情况下较传统非线性模型优势明显, 在昆虫发育历期估测建模中有应用前景。     

昆虫种群动态模拟方法的一点改进──三化螟种群动态模拟模型的研究

以Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）的模型为基础,根据昆虫个体一般不同步地进入下一发育阶段的状况,当昆虫各虫态发育到完成该虫态发育所需要的最低年龄级数后,假定各年龄级的昆虫种群均以一定的概率分布函数值进入下一个发育阶段,同时根据有效积温向前推进。据此,对昆虫种群动态模拟方法作了一点改进。该方法综合了已有的种群模型的优点,因而较Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）和ＣｈｉＨｓｉｎ等（１９８５）提出的方法更真实地反映了昆虫种群动态的变化规律。根据三化螟自然种群生命表的资料,分析和确定逐日存活率、逐日发育率和逐日生殖率,对三化螟种群进行逐日动态模拟和预测,同时引入环境因素对种群的控制作用,研究不同环境条件下的种群动态,经验证,模型基本能够反映田间三化螟的发生规律。     

基于网络的昆虫发育进程自动模拟系统

为了有效的预测害虫的发生期,开发了昆虫发育自动模拟系统,该系统基于网络平台,应用PHP丰富的函数库和计算功能设计有效积温运算模块,通过公共气象信息系统建立了气象数据库,并根据实时及预报的公共气象信息,即逐日最高及最低气温,昆虫发育有效积温相关的生物学参数,运用正弦法计算每天的有效积温及一段时间的累计积温,自动模拟昆虫在不同时期的发育虫态和虫龄。服务器端基于Apache+PHP+MySQL架构,操作简单,调试和维护方便。经与2011年江苏通州烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci(Gennadius)、灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus(Fallén)系统调查数据比对,符合实际发生情况,可在生产上推广应用。     

Evaluation of several degree-day estimation methods in California climates

 Procedures for estimating degree-day accumulations are frequently employed instead of the more accurate method of calculating degree-days from hourly temperature data because on-site temperature data are commonly restricted to daily minimum and maximum temperature records. Data from seven methods of estimating degree-days at each of nine locations during 2 years in California were compared by month to degree-day values calculated by hourly summation. Methods included three sine-wave approaches, three triangulation approaches and the averaging (i.e., rectangle) method. Results of the double-sine and corrected-sine (i.e., corrected for day length) methods were nearly identical to those of the single-sine method. The double triangulation and corrected triangulation methods produced very similar results to the single triangulation method. The averaging method and sine-wave methods deviated to a greater extent from degree-day accumulations calculated from hourly temperatures from November through February than did the triangulation methods. Degree-day estimations from the late spring and summer months were more similar to one another for all estimation methods than during the cooler months of the year. Since no advantages were noted in the more complicated double and corrected methods, the single triangulation method or the sine-wave method is preferred as they are less complicated procedures. Of the various temperature threshold cut-off methods evaluated, error levels were unaffected when estimating degree-days using the sine-wave method. The employment of a horizontal cut-off with the triangulation method did not significantly increase the amount of error in the estimation of degree-days. However, an increase in error was observed when employing the intermediate cut-off and vertical threshold cut-off techniques with the triangulation method for computing degree-days. Received: 26 May 1998 / Accepted: 28 October 1998     

Seasonal development of the blowfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Caliphora vicina</Emphasis> R.-D. (Diptera,Calliphoridae) in the environs of St. Petersburg

Four-year monitoring of phenology of the blowfly Caliphora vicina under quasi-natural conditions in the environs of St. Petersburg demonstrated development of two complete generations and overwintering of the third generation. The duration of preimaginal development (from egg laying to adult emergence) of the 1st and 2nd generations varied from 19 to 32 days; the required sum of effective temperatures (SET) was 326 ± 31 degree-days with a threshold of 5°С. Reproductive maturation of females (the period of time from adult emergence to laying of the first eggs) lasted from 15 to 31 days (SET was 262 ± 39 degree-days with a threshold of 5°С). The duration of development of one complete generation (from egg stage to the beginning of oviposition) during the period of observation varied from 34 to 57 days (SET was about 600 degree-days with a threshold of 5°С). The first diapausing larvae hatched from the eggs laid in the middle of August. In September, at shorter day lengths and at a temperature of 10–11°С, 80–100% of the larvae entered diapause. A small fraction of the larvae of the 1st and 2nd generation and most of the larvae of the 3rd generation overwintered. Successful overwintering of adults in the environs of St. Petersburg is hardly possible.     

Phenotypic Plasticity of the Thermal Reaction Norms for Development in the Multicolored Asian Lady Beetle,Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera,Coccinellidae)

Entomological Review - Phenotypic plasticity of insect thermal reaction norms (TRNs) (the lower thermal threshold, coefficient of thermal sensitivity, and sum of degree-days) ensures precise...     

Phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Washington and Oregon apple orchards

The phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Grote & Robinson) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was investigated in 30 apple orchards in central Washington state and northeastern Oregon from 1998 to 2001 (57 total orchard-yr). Adult captures in pheromone-baited traps were fit to a Weibull distribution to model emergence of the first and second generations. Initial capture of first generation adults was observed at 216.2 +/- 2.6 degree-days (DD) (mean +/- SEM) from 1 March by using a base temperature of 6.7 degrees C. The model predicted that flight was 5 and 95% complete by 240 and 700 degree-days (DD), respectively. Monitoring of oviposition and hatch was used to establish a protandry plus preoviposition degree-day requirement of 160.0 +/- 7.7 DD, as well as to provide data to describe the entire hatch period. Egg hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 395 and 630 DD, respectively. The start of the second flight was observed at 1217.1 +/- 8.3 DD by using an upper threshold for development of 32 degrees C and a horizontal cutoff. The model indicated that the second flight was 5 and 95% complete by 1220 and 1690 DD, respectively. Second generation hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 1440 and 1740 DD, respectively. A discussion of the potential uses of these detailed phenology data in optimizing management strategies is presented.     

Study of intrapopulational variability of duration and temperature norms of development of the linden bug Pyrrhocoris apterus (Heteroptera, Pyrrhocoridae)

The existence of significant variability in duration and temperature norms of development between families within insect populations has been shown for the first time. This variability is inferfamily and therefore has genetic ground. Revealed for the first time is the statistically significant positive correlation between the regression coefficient of the development rate for temperature and the temperature threshold for development of eggs and larvae from different families. The greater the slope of the regression line of the development rate for temperature, the higher the temperature threshold value in this particular family. These results demonstrate for the first time the existence of genetic co-variation between the regression coefficient and the temperature threshold within the insect populations. It is suggested that the source of the interpopulational and interspecies changes in the temperature reaction norms of the insect development might be the intrapopulational hereditary variability of the development duration, regression coefficient, and the development threshold, this variability being an object of natural selection. It was shown that in all studied families and populations the values of the linear regression coefficient of development rates for temperature in eggs of the linden bug Pyrrhocoris apterus were markedly and statistically significantly higher, while the temperature threshold values—lower as compared with the corresponding parameters in larvae. These results obviously are in contradiction with the concept of the “isomorphism of development rates” (Jarosik et al., 2002), according to which the development threshold for all life cycle stages of a species should be the same, whereas only slopes of the regression lines of the development rate for temperature can differ. For the first time the absence of genetic covariation has been shown between the temperature norms of development of different life cycle stages of the species—eggs and larvae. This means that the regression coefficient as well as the sum of the degree-days and the development threshold in eggs and larvae are inherited independently and therefore they can be independently changed in evolution in correspondence with specific environmental conditions, under which these life cycle stages take place.     

Developmental Models for Estimating Ecological Responses to Environmental Variability: Structural,Parametric, and Experimental Issues

Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.     

A physiologically based approach for degree-day calculation in pest phenology models: the case of the European Corn Borer (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Ostrinia nubilalis</Emphasis> Hbn.) in Northern Italy

Phenological models based on degree-day accumulation have been developed to support the integrated pest management of many insects. Most of these models are based on linear relationships between temperature and development, and on daily time step simulations using daily minimum and maximum temperatures. This approach represents an approximation that does not take into account the insect physiological response to temperature, and daily temperature fluctuations. The objective of this work has been to develop a phenological model for the European corn borer (ECB) based on the insect physiological response to temperature and running at an hourly time step. Two modeling solutions based on the same generic compartmental system have been compared: the first based on a physiologically based relationship between temperature and development, and using hourly derived temperatures as input (HNL modeling solution); and the second based on a linear relationship between temperature and degree-day accumulation and using daily temperature (DL modeling solution). The two approaches have been compared using ECB moth capture data from the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. The HNL modeling solution showed the best results for all the accuracy indicators. The DL modeling solution showed a tendency to anticipate ECB phenological development too early. This tendency is attributable to the linear relationship between temperature and development, which does not take into account (1) the decline of this relationship at high temperatures, and (2) the daily fluctuation of temperature. As a consequence, degree-days accumulation is accelerated in the DL modeling solution and the phenological development anticipated.     

物候模型研究进展

近年来随着全球气候变暖,物候提前,物候学的研究越来越受到人们的关注.通过建立物候模型使物候期的预知成为可能,从而为生产实践活动提供依据和指导.本文探讨了物候模型研究的意义,总结了影响植物和昆虫物候的温度、水分、光和养分等主要环境因子的作用.根据国内外物候模型的研究现状,重点介绍了作物、树木、植被和昆虫4类物候模型的研究内容和进展.作物物候模型注重生理生态过程;树木物候模型以统计方法为主,但近期也有尝试将激素水平作为物候的决定因素;植被物候模型以遥感技术的应用为发展趋势;昆虫物候模型则进一步对发育起点的确定和对温度因子的修正,GIS的引入将昆虫物候模型的应用范围扩大.最后指出了目前物候模型研究中存在的问题.     

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest

Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.