Understory bird communities in Amazonian rainforest fragments: species turnover through 25 years post-isolation in recovering landscapes

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1-100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1-2 preisolation samples and 4-5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction.     

Body length of bony fishes was not a selective factor during the biggest mass extinction of all time

The Permo‐Triassic mass extinction devastated life on land and in the sea, but it is not clear why some species survived and others went extinct. One explanation is that lineage loss during mass extinctions is a random process in which luck determines which species survive. Alternatively, a phylogenetic signal in extinction may indicate a selection process operating on phenotypic traits. Large body size has often emerged as an extinction risk factor in studies of modern extinction risk, but this is not so commonly the case for mass extinctions in deep time. Here, we explore the evolution of non‐teleostean Actinopterygii (bony fishes) from the Devonian to the present day, and we concentrate on the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction. We apply a variety of time‐scaling metrics to date the phylogeny, and show that diversity peaked in the latest Permian and declined severely during the Early Triassic. In line with previous evidence, we find the phylogenetic signal of extinction increases across the mass extinction boundary: extinction of species in the earliest Triassic is more clustered across phylogeny compared to the more randomly distributed extinction signal in the late Permian. However, body length plays no role in differential survival or extinction of taxa across the boundary. In the case of fishes, size did not determine which species survived and which went extinct, but phylogenetic signal indicates that the mass extinction was not a random field of bullets.     

Low dispersal ability and habitat specificity promote extinctions in rare but not in widespread species: the Orthoptera of Germany

Local extinctions are often non‐randomly associated with range size, dispersal ability and habitat specificity, as well as body size, sexual dimorphism and phylogeny. We used a large data set of the Orthoptera species (bush crickets, crickets, grasshoppers) occurring in Germany and compared the number of occupied grid cells before 1980 to those occupied after 1980, corrected for monitoring intensity. The number of grid cells in which a species went extinct was non‐linearly related to the number of occupied grid cells per species. Using generalized linear modelling we analysed extinction in relation to national distribution (the number of occupied grid cells before 1980), dispersal ability (derived from a large body of literature concerning wing development, colonization dynamics and within‐habitat mobility), habitat specificity (moisture specialists versus generalists), potential reproduction (the number of ovarioles), the degree of sexual size dimorphism and phylogeny (twelve clades). Species with a large global range size also had a large national range size. Species with a large range experienced more total extinction events than species with smaller ranges but relatively fewer compared to range size. The latter relationship was largely shaped by the dispersal ability of the species: the interactions of range size×dispersal ability and range size×habitat specificity explained almost one third of the variation in the number of extinction events. Species with high dispersal ability went extinct in a similar number of grid cells irrespective of their range size. By contrast, species with low dispersal ability went extinct in proportion to their range size. Therefore, comparing the speed of extinction across species in the conventional way of extinction rates (that is the percentage of range contraction) might be flawed because it only applies to species with low dispersal ability. Sexual size dimorphism was not a significant predictor of extinction. Extinction was not concentrated on particular clades.     

Extinction patterns in the avifauna of the Hawaiian islands

Through the continuing accumulation of fossil evidence, it is clear that the avifauna of the Hawaiian Islands underwent a large‐scale extinction event around the time of Polynesian arrival. A second wave of extinctions since European colonization has further altered this unique avifauna. Here I present the first systematic analysis of the factors characterizing the species that went extinct in each time period and those that survived in order to provide a clearer picture of the possible causal mechanisms. These analyses were based on mean body size, dietary and ecological information and phylogenetic lineage of all known indigenous, non‐migratory land and freshwater bird species of the five largest Hawaiian Islands. Extinct species were divided into ‘prehistoric’ and ‘historic’ extinction categories based on the timing of their last occurrence. A model of fossil preservation bias was also incorporated. I used regression trees to predict probability of prehistoric and historic extinction based on ecological variables. Prehistoric extinctions showed a strong bias toward larger body sizes and flightless, ground‐nesting species, even after accounting for preservation bias. Many small, specialized species, mostly granivores and frugivores, also disappeared, implicating a wide suite of human impacts including destruction of dry forest habitat. In contrast, the highest extinction rates in the historic period were in medium‐sized nectarivorous and insectivorous species. These differences result from different causal mechanisms underlying the two waves of extinction.     

The effects of edge, fragment size and degree of isolation on avian species richness in highly fragmented forest in West Africa

Almost nothing is known of the effects of forest fragmentation on bird diversity within the heavily degraded and fragmented forest remnants in West Africa. We examined the effects of edge, fragment size and isolation on bird species richness in southwestern Nigeria where forest fragmentation is pronounced. In total, 122 km of line transects were used to survey birds and vegetation within 45 forest patches between January 2000 and March 2002: 197 species were recorded. Avian species number and total counts in forest patches were unrelated to fragment area (within the observed range of 14–445 ha), but were negatively influenced by degree of isolation and increasing distance from the edge. As the total area of forested land within 15 km of a patch fell from 4 to 0%, so 21% of species were lost. In total, six and zero species (of 154 recorded more than once) were consistently recorded in the larger and smaller forest fragments, respectively, and four and two bird species were consistently recorded in unisolated and isolated forest fragments, respectively, suggesting that the addition of ‘edge’ species did not compensate for loss of species sensitive to fragmentation. Diversity index was not affected by either fragment area or degree of isolation, but decreased with distance from the edge. When individual species counts were considered, 68% of species (n = 62) showed no significant effect of distance to edge. Of those 20 species which showed an effect, 12 were less common close to the edge. Most species (65%) did not respond significantly to increasing isolation but of those 22 species that did, 20 were less common in more isolated fragments. Ninety‐seven per cent of species showed no significant response to area. As avian diversity and species composition, but not species number, were apparently insensitive to forest fragmentation, our findings suggest that fragmentation reduces the probability of occurrence of a wide range of West African bird species, rather than a subset of fragmentation‐sensitive species. The greater apparent sensitivity of present‐day West African forest bird communities to fragmentation rather than patch size might reflect previous extinctions of area‐sensitive species. Minimizing further forest fragmentation might be the most effective means of conserving avian diversity in current West African landscapes where most remaining forest patches are small (i.e. < 500 ha).     

Can neutral theory predict the responses of Amazonian tree communities to forest fragmentation?

We use Hubbell's neutral theory to predict the impact of habitat fragmentation on Amazonian tree communities. For forest fragments isolated for about two decades, we generate neutral predictions for local species extinction, changes in species composition within fragments, and increases in the probability that any two trees within a fragment are conspecific. We tested these predictions using fragment and intact forest data from the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonia. To simulate complete demographic isolation, we excluded immigrants--species absent from a fragment or intact forest plot in the initial census but present in its last census--from our tests. The neutral theory correctly predicted the rate of species extinction from different plots as a function of the diversity and mortality rate of trees in each plot. However, the rate of change in species composition was much faster than predicted in fragments, indicating that different tree species respond differently to environmental changes. This violates the key assumption of neutral theory. When immigrants were included in our calculations, they increased the disparity between predicted and observed changes in fragments. Overall, neutral theory accurately predicted the pace of local extinctions in fragments but consistently underestimated changes in species composition.     

Long-term effects of forest fragmentation on Amazonian ant communities

Aim To analyse the effects of forest fragmentation on ant communities in an Amazonian landscape that has been fragmented for over a century. Location The region surrounding the village of Alter do Chão in the Brazilian Amazonian state of Pará (2°30′ S, 54°57′ W). Methods Collection of ants and measurements of tree density were performed along transects established in eight sites in continuous forest and in 24 forest fragments surrounded by savanna vegetation. Data on size, perimeter, and degree of isolation (distance to continuous forest and distance to nearest area of forest > 5 ha) of each fragment were obtained from a georeferenced Landsat image of the study area. Results There were significant differences in species richness and composition between fragments and continuous forest, and these differences were not related to intersite variation in vegetation structure (tree density). Fragments supported fewer ant species per plot, and these species tended to represent a nested subset of those found in continuous forests. Fragments had significantly fewer rare species and fewer ant genera. However, fragments and continuous forest had similar numbers of species that also occur in the savanna matrix (i.e. that are not forest specialists). Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that species richness and composition in the fragments are significantly affected by fragment area, but not by fragment shape and degree of isolation. More species were found in larger fragments. Main conclusions Forest fragmentation influences the organization of ant communities in Amazonian savanna/forest landscapes. Forest fragments harboured, on average, 85% of the species found in continuous forest. That these fragments, despite their long history of isolation, support a relatively large complement of the species found in continuous forest is surprising, especially given that in some recently fragmented landscapes the proportion of species surviving in the fragments is lower. Differences in inter‐fragment distance and type of matrix between Alter do Chão and these other landscapes may be involved. The fact that fragments at Alter do Chão are surrounded by a natural (rather than an anthropogenic) habitat, and that most of them are less than 300 m from another forest area, may have helped to ameliorate the adverse effects of forest fragmentation.     

Influence of Edge Exposure on Tree Seedling Species Recruitment in Tropical Rain Forest Fragments1

Edge creation has a pronounced influence on the understory vegetation, but the effects of edges on seedling species recruitment are still poorly understood. In Central Amazonia, 9–19 years after fragmentation, we recorded species richness and net seedling recruitment rate in 1 ha blocks exposed to none, one, or multiple edges within forest fragments. One‐hectare blocks were located in the center (no edge), the edge (one edge), the corners (two edges) of 10 and 100 ha fragments, and in a 1 ha fragment (four edges). In 1991, we counted all tree seedlings 5–100 cm tall found within permanent 1 m² plots located within the 1 ha blocks. In May 1993, we manually removed all seedlings that were smaller than 1 m tall from the permanent plots. Six years and five months later (October 1999), all new seedlings recruited into the plots were counted and classified into distinct morphospecies. Species richness of recruited seedlings, scaled by total seedling density, declined from the center to the edge, the corner blocks, and then to the 1 ha fragment. Overall, the four‐edged, 1 ha fragment had the poorest species richness and the non‐edged 100 ha central block the highest. The total number of recruited individuals was 40 percent less than that previously present, with the 100 ha corner having the lowest recruitment. Pairwise comparisons showed that species similarity was related to edge number for the 100 and 1 ha fragments. Species rank/abundance curves showed that a subset of species was common in all blocks within the fragments, and that the 100 ha center held more rare species than any other 1 ha block. This study demonstrated that, in a given fragment patch, the number of tree seedling species recruited varied inversely with the number of edges.     

Spatial and temporal changes in bird assemblages in forest fragments in an eastern Amazonian savannah

We investigated the effects of forest fragmentation on bird assemblages in an Amazonian savannah landscape with forest fragments that have been isolated for more than 100 years. The study was conducted in areas surrounding the village of Alter do Chão (2°31′S, 55°00′W), Santarém, Brazil. Bird surveys and measurements of tree density were undertaken in 25 areas, with 19 plots in forest fragments of different sizes and six in an area of continuous forest. Data on forest‐fragment size, perimeter, and isolation were obtained from a georeferenced satellite image. Variation in number of bird species recorded per plot was not related to vegetation structure (tree density). The number of bird species recorded per plot increased significantly only with fragment area, but was not influenced by fragment shape or degree of isolation, even when considering species from the savannah matrix in the analysis. Fragments had fewer rare species. Multivariate ordination analyses (multiple dimensional scaling, [MDS]) indicated that bird species composition changed along a gradient from small to large forest fragments and continuous‐forest areas. In the Amazonian savannah landscapes of Alter do Chão, the organization and composition of bird assemblages in forest fragments are affected by local long‐term forest‐fragmentation processes. Differences in the number of bird species recorded per plot and assemblage composition between forest fragments and continuous forest were not influenced by forest structure, suggesting that the observed patterns in species composition result from the effects of fragmentation per se rather than from preexisting differences in vegetation structure between sites. Nevertheless, despite their long history of isolation, the forest fragments still preserve a large proportion (on average 80%) of the avifauna found in continuous‐forest areas. The fragments at Alter do Chão are surrounded by natural (rather than planted) grassland, with many trees in the savannah matrix and the landscape has vast areas covered by forest, which may have helped to ameliorate the influences of forest fragmentation.     

Late Quaternary reptile extinctions: size matters,insularity dominates

Aim A major Late Quaternary vertebrate extinction event affected mostly large‐bodied ‘megafauna’. This is well documented in both mammals and birds, but evidence of a similar trend in reptiles is scant. We assess the relationship between body size and Late Quaternary extinction in reptiles at the global level. Location Global. Methods We compile a body size database for all 82 reptile species that are known to have gone extinct during the last 50,000 years and compare them with the sizes of 10,090 extant reptile species (97% of known extant diversity). We assess the body size distributions in the major reptile groups: crocodiles, lizards, snakes and turtles, while testing and correcting for a size bias in the fossil record. We examine geographical biases in extinction by contrasting mainland and insular reptile assemblages, and testing for biases within regions and then globally by using geographically weighted models. Results Extinct reptiles were larger than extant ones, but there was considerable variation in extinction size biases among groups. Extinct lizards and turtles were large, extinct crocodiles were small and there was no trend in snakes. Lizard lineages vary in the way their extinction is related to size. Extinctions were particularly prevalent on islands, with 73 of the 82 extinct species being island endemics. Four others occurred in Australia. The fossil record is biased towards large‐bodied reptiles, but extinct lizards were larger than extant ones even after we account for this. Main conclusions Body size played a complex role in the extinction of Late Quaternary reptiles. Larger lizard and turtle species were clearly more affected by extinction mechanisms such as over exploitation and invasive species, resulting in a prevalence of large‐bodied species among extinct taxa. Insularity was by far the strongest correlate of recent reptile extinctions, suggesting that size‐biased extinction mechanisms are amplified in insular environments.     

Co-Extinctions of Tropical Butterflies and their Hostplants

The co‐extinction of interdependent species in relation to massive, long–term habitat disturbance has not been thoroughly investigated. Using logistic regression analyses, we examined the relationship between the loss of butterflies and their specific hostplants from the tropical island of Singapore and report the probable occurrence of their co–extinctions at the community level. Our simulation shows that the number of extinct butterfly species is expected to increase exponentially with that of extinct hostplants. The close association between butterflies and their hostplants suggests that the preservation of whole habitats is urgently needed if we are to avoid the possible cascading effects of species (co‐)extinctions.     

Megafauna extinction,tree species range reduction,and carbon storage in Amazonian forests

During the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene 59 species of South American megafauna went extinct. Their extinction potentially triggered population declines of large‐seeded tree species dispersed by the large‐bodied frugivores with which they co‐evolved, a theory first proposed by Janzen and Martin (1982). We tested this hypothesis using species range maps for 257 South American tree species, comparing 63 species thought to be primarily distributed by megafauna with 194 distributed by other animals. We found a highly significant (p < 0.001) decreased mean range size of 26% for the megafauna dispersed fruit (n = 63 species) versus fruit dispersed by other animals (n = 194), results which support the hypothesis. We then developed a mathematical model of seed dispersal to estimate the theoretical impact of megafauna extinction on tree species range and found the estimated dispersal capacity (Φ_seed) of a 2 g seed decreases by > 95% following disperser extinction. A numerical gap dynamic simulations suggests that over a 10 000 yr period following the disperser extinctions, the average convex hull range size of large‐seeded tree species decreased by ～ 31%, while the estimated decrease in population size was ～ 54%, indicating a likely greater decrease in species population size than indicated by the empirical range patterns. Finally, we found a positive correlation between seed size and wood density of animal‐dispersed tree species implying that the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene megafaunal extinctions reduced carbon content in the Amazon by ～ 1.5 ± 0.7%. In conclusion, we 1) provide some empirical evidence that megafauna distributed fruit species have a smaller mean range size than wind, water or other animal‐dispersed species, 2) demonstrate mathematically that such range reductions are expected from megafauna extinctions ca 12 000 yr ago, and 3) illustrate that these extinctions may have reduced the Amazon's carbon storage capacity.     

SHORT COMMUNICATION: A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don‐hare Lepus tanaiticus

The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don‐hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339‐basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D‐loop. Phylogenetic tree‐ and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of ‘L. tanaiticus’ represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.     

CLIMATE PREDICTORS OF LATE QUATERNARY EXTINCTIONS

Between 50,000 and 3,000 years before present (BP) 65% of mammal genera weighing over 44 kg went extinct, together with a lower proportion of small mammals. Why species went extinct in such large numbers is hotly debated. One of the arguments proposes that climate changes underlie Late Quaternary extinctions, but global quantitative evidence for this hypothesis is still lacking. We test the potential role of global climate change on the extinction of mammals during the Late Quaternary. Our results suggest that continents with the highest climate footprint values, in other words, with climate changes of greater magnitudes during the Late Quaternary, witnessed more extinctions than continents with lower climate footprint values, with the exception of South America. Our results are consistent across species with different body masses, reinforcing the view that past climate changes contributed to global extinctions. Our model outputs, the climate change footprint dataset, provide a new research venue to test hypotheses about biodiversity dynamics during the Late Quaternary from the genetic to the species richness level.     

Avifaunal responses to habitat fragmentation in the threatened littoral forests of south-eastern Madagascar

Aim Madagascar's lowland forests are both rich in endemic taxa and considered to be seriously threatened by deforestation and habitat fragmentation. However, very little is known about how these processes affect biodiversity on the island. Herein, we examine how forest bird communities and functional groups have been affected by fragmentation at both patch and landscape scales, by determining relationships between species richness and individual species abundance and patch and landscape mosaic metrics. Location Littoral forest remnants within south‐eastern Madagascar. Methods We sampled 30 littoral forest remnants in south‐eastern Madagascar, within a landscape mosaic dominated by Erica spp. heathland. We quantified bird community composition within remnants of differing size, shape and isolation, by conducting point counts in November–December in 2001 and October–November 2002. Each remnant was characterized by measures of remnant area, remnant shape, isolation, and surrounding landscape complexity. We used step‐wise regression to test the relationship between bird species richness and landscape structural elements, after correcting for sampling effort. Relationships between bird species abundances and the landscape variables were investigated with Canonical Correspondence Analysis and binomial logistic regression modelling. Results Bird species richness and forest‐dependent bird species richness were significantly (P < 0.01) explained by remnant area but not by any measure of isolation or landscape complexity. The majority of forest‐dependent species had significant relationships with remnant area. Minimum area requirements for area‐sensitive species ranged from 15 to 150 ha, with the majority of species having area requirements > 30 ha. Surprisingly, there was no relationship between bird body size and minimum area requirement. Forest‐dependent canopy insectivorous species and large canopy frugivorous species were the most sensitive functional groups, with > 90% species sensitivity within each group. The distribution of four forest‐dependent species also appeared to be related to remnant shape where remnant area was < 100 ha. Main conclusions The majority of forest‐dependent species, including many that are considered widespread and common, were found to have significant relationships with fragment size, indicating that they are sensitive to processes associated with habitat loss and fragmentation. As deforestation and habitat fragmentation remain serious problems on the island, it follows that many forest‐dependent bird species will decline in abundance and become locally extinct. At the regional scale, we urge that large (> 200 ha) blocks of littoral forest are awarded protected status to preserve their unique bird community.     

Extinctions of herbivorous mammals in the late Pleistocene of Australia in relation to their feeding ecology: No evidence for environmental change as cause of extinction

Abstract There has been debate over the cause of the extinction of ‘megafauna’ species during the late Pleistocene of Australia. One view is that environmental change, either natural or human‐induced, was the main factor in the extinctions. Some support for this comes from the observation that, among herbivores, most of the species that went extinct were apparently browsers rather than grazers. Browsers would presumably have been more dependent on shrubland and woodland habitats than grazers, and it has been argued that such habitats might have contracted in response to aridity or changed fire regimes in the late Pleistocene. Here, we test this idea by comparing extinction rates of browsers and grazers in the late Pleistocene, controlling for body mass in both groups. We show that in both browsers and grazers the probability of extinction was very strongly related to body mass, and the body mass at which extinction became likely was similar in the two groups. It is true that more browsers than grazers went extinct, but this is largely because most very large herbivores in the late Pleistocene were browsers, not because large browsers were more likely to go extinct than similarly sized grazers. This result provides evidence against some forms of environmental change as a cause of the extinctions.     

Reductions in connectivity and habitat quality drive local extinctions in a plant diversity hotspot

It is well documented that habitat loss is a major cause of biodiversity decline. However, the roles of the different aspects of habitat loss in local extinctions are less understood. Anthropogenic destruction of an area of habitat causes immediate local extinction but subsequently three additional gradual drivers influence the likelihood of delayed extinction: decreased habitat patch size, lower connectivity and habitat deterioration. We investigated the role of these drivers in local extinctions of 82 declining species in a UK biodiversity hotspot. We combined a unique set of ≈ 7000 vegetation surveys and habitat maps from the 1930s with contemporary species’ occurrences. We extrapolated from these surveys to the whole 2500‐km² study area using habitat suitability surfaces. The strengths of drivers in explaining local extinctions over this 70 yr period were determined by contrasting connectivity, patch size and habitat quality loss for locations at which a species went extinct and those with persisting occurrences. Species’ occurrences declined on average by 60%, with half of local extinctions attributable to immediate habitat loss and half to the gradual processes causing delayed extinctions. On average, locations where a species persisted had a 73% higher contemporary connectivity than those suffering extinctions, but showed no differences in historical connectivity. Furthermore, locations with extinctions experienced a 37% greater decline in suitability associated with changes in habitat type. The strength of the drivers and the proportion of extinctions depended on the species’ habitat specialism, but were affected only minimally by life‐history characteristics. In conclusion, we identified a hierarchy of drivers influencing local extinction: with connectivity loss being the strongest, suitability change being moderately important, but changes in habitat patch size having only weak effects. We suggest conservation efforts could be most effective by strengthening connectivity along with reducing habitat deterioration, which would benefit a wide range of species.     

Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate‐vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche‐demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100‐year trajectories for range‐restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5‐year, and 10‐year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.     

Dung beetle-megafauna trophic networks in Singapore’s fragmented forests

We investigated trophic networks between dung beetles and megafauna species in five forest fragments in Singapore varying in size and isolation. We found that Singapore's dung beetle communities were attracted to extant and extinct dung types from different dietary groups. All forest fragment networks were similar and displayed high generalism and high nestedness.     

Archosauromorph extinction selectivity during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction

Many traits have been linked to extinction risk among modern vertebrates, including mode of life and body size. However, previous work has indicated there is little evidence that body size, or any other trait, was selective during past mass extinctions. Here, we investigate the impact of the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction on early Archosauromorpha (basal dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs and their relatives) by focusing on body size and other life history traits. We built several new archosauromorph maximum‐likelihood supertrees, incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships. These supertrees were then employed as a framework to test whether extinction had a phylogenetic signal during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction, and whether species with certain traits were more or less likely to go extinct. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction, in that taxa were more likely to become extinct if a close relative also did. However, there is no correlation between extinction and body size, or any other tested trait. These conclusions add to previous findings that body size, and other traits, were not subject to selection during mass extinctions in closely‐related clades, although the phylogenetic signal in extinction indicates that selection may have acted on traits not investigated here.