Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

Predicting the probability of successful establishment of plant species by matching climatic variables has considerable potential for incorporation in early warning systems for the management of biological invasions. We select South Africa as a model source area of invasions worldwide because it is an important exporter of plant species to other parts of the world because of the huge international demand for indigenous flora from this biodiversity hotspot. We first mapped the five ecoregions that occur both in South Africa and other parts of the world, but the very coarse definition of the ecoregions led to unreliable results in terms of predicting invasible areas. We then determined the bioclimatic features of South Africa's major terrestrial biomes and projected the potential distribution of analogous areas throughout the world. This approach is much more powerful, but depends strongly on how particular biomes are defined in donor countries. Finally, we developed bioclimatic niche models for 96 plant taxa (species and subspecies) endemic to South Africa and invasive elsewhere, and projected these globally after successfully evaluating model projections specifically for three well‐known invasive species (Carpobrotus edulis, Senecio glastifolius, Vellereophyton dealbatum) in different target areas. Cumulative probabilities of climatic suitability show that high‐risk regions are spatially limited globally but that these closely match hotspots of plant biodiversity. These probabilities are significantly correlated with the number of recorded invasive species from South Africa in natural areas, emphasizing the pivotal role of climate in defining invasion potential. Accounting for potential transfer vectors (trade and tourism) significantly adds to the explanatory power of climate suitability as an index of invasibility. The close match that we found between the climatic component of the ecological habitat suitability and the current pattern of occurrence of South Africa alien species in other parts of the world is encouraging. If species' distribution data in the donor country are available, climatic niche modelling offers a powerful tool for efficient and unbiased first‐step screening. Given that eradication of an established invasive species is extremely difficult and expensive, areas identified as potential new sites should be monitored and quarantine measures should be adopted.     

Seed banks of invasive Australian Acacia species in South Africa: Role in invasiveness and options for management

Despite impressive efforts at clearing stands of invasive Australian Acacia species in South Africa, insufficient attention has been given to understanding the role of seed banks in the invasiveness and long-term persistence of populations. We review information on seeds of these species, considering seed production, seed rain, and the dynamics of seeds in three layers: leaf litter, and upper and lower seed banks in the soil. Many factors affect the accumulation and susceptibility to destruction of seed banks and thus the opportunities for intervention to reduce seed numbers for each of these components. Reduction of seed banks is crucial for the overall success of the multi-million dollar management initiatives against these species. Classical biological control of buds, flower and young pods has reduced the seed production of many Australian acacias in South Africa. Fire can be applied to reduce seed numbers in the leaf litter and upper seed bank in some cases, although there are serious problems associated with high fire intensities in dense acacia stands. Other options, e.g. soil inversion and solarisation, exist to exercise limited reduction of seed numbers in some situations. There is little prospect of meaningful reduction of seed numbers in the lower seed bank. Preventing the accumulation of seed banks by limiting seed production through biological control is by far the most effective means, and in almost all cases the only practical means, of reducing seed numbers. This must be an integral part of management strategies. Several invasive Australian acacias are already under effective biological control, and further work to identify additional potential agents for all the currently invasive species and potentially invasive alien species is the top priority for improving the efficiency of management programmes.