Coping with Pleistocene climatic fluctuations: Demographic responses in remote endemic reef fishes

Elucidating demographic history during the settlement of ecological communities is crucial for properly inferring the mechanisms that shape patterns of species diversity and their persistence through time. Here, we used genomic data and coalescent‐based approaches to elucidate for the first time the demographic dynamics associated with the settlement by endemic reef fish fauna of one of the most remote peripheral islands of the Pacific Ocean, Rapa Nui (Easter Island). We compared the demographic history of nine endemic species in order to explore their demographic responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. We found that species endemic to Rapa Nui share a common demographic history, as signatures of population expansions were retrieved for almost all of the species studied here, and synchronous demographic expansions initiated during the last glacial period were recovered for more than half of the studied species. These results suggest that eustatic fluctuations associated with Milankovitch cycles have played a central role in species demographic histories and in the final stage of the community assembly of many Rapa Nui reef fishes. Specifically, sea level lowstands resulted in the maximum reef habitat extension for Rapa Nui endemic species; we discuss the potential role of seamounts in allowing endemic species to cope with Pleistocene climatic fluctuations, and we highlight the importance of local historical processes over regional ones. Overall, our results shed light on the mechanisms by which endemism arises and is maintained in peripheral reef fish fauna.     

Comparative and predictive phylogeography in the South American diagonal of open formations: Unravelling the biological and environmental influences on multitaxon demography

Phylogeography investigates historical drivers of the geographical distribution of intraspecific lineages. Particular attention has been given to ecological, climatic and geological processes in the diversification of the Neotropical biota. Several species sampled across the South American diagonal of open formations (DOF), comprising the Caatinga, Cerrado and Chaco biomes, experienced range shifts coincident with Quaternary climatic changes. However, comparative studies across different spatial, temporal and biological scales on DOF species are still meagre. Here, we combine phylogeographical model selection and machine learning predictive frameworks to investigate the influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on several plant and animal species from the DOF. We assembled mitochondrial/chloroplastic DNA sequences in public repositories and inferred the demographic responses of 44 species, comprising 70 intraspecific lineages of plants, lizards, frogs, spiders and insects. We then built a random forest model using biotic and abiotic information to identify the best predictors of demographic responses in the Pleistocene. Finally, we assessed the temporal synchrony of species demographic responses with hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation. Biotic variables related to population connectivity, gene flow and habitat preferences largely predicted how species responded to Pleistocene climatic changes, and demographic changes were synchronous primarily during the Middle Pleistocene. Although 22 (~31%) lineages underwent demographic expansion, presumably associated with the spread of aridity during the glacial Pleistocene periods, our findings suggest that nine lineages (~13%) exhibited the opposite response due to taxon-specific attributes.     

Evolutionary history of endangered and relict tree species Dipteronia sinensis in response to geological and climatic events in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent areas

Geological and climatic events are considered to profoundly affect the evolution and lineage divergence of plant species. However, the evolutionary histories of tree species that have responded to past geological and climate oscillations in central China''s mountainous areas remain mostly unknown. In this study, we assessed the evolutionary history of the endangered and relict tree species Dipteronia sinensis in the Qinling Mountains (QM) and adjacent areas in East Asia based on variations in the complete chloroplast genomes (cpDNA) and reduced‐genomic scale single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Population structure and phylogenetic analysis based on the cpDNA variations suggested that D. sinensis could be divided into two intraspecific genetic lineages in the eastern and western sides of the QM (EQM and WQM, respectively) in East Asia. Molecular dating suggested that the intraspecific divergence of D. sinensis occurred approximately 39.2 million years ago during the later Paleogene. It was significantly correlated with the orogeny of the QM, where the formation of this significant geographic barrier in the region may have led to the divergence of independent lineages. Bayesian clustering and demographic analysis showed that intraspecific gene flow was restricted between the EQM and WQM lineages. Isolation‐with‐migration analysis indicated that the two genetic lineages experienced significant demographic expansions after the Pleistocene ice ages. However, the genetic admixture was determined in some populations between the two lineages by the large scale of SNP variations due to DNA incompatibility, the large significant population size, and rapid gene flow of nuclear DNA markers. Our results suggest that two different conservation and management units should be constructed for D. sinensis in the EQM and WQM areas. These findings provide novel insights into the unprecedented effects of tectonic changes and climatic oscillations on lineage divergence and plant population evolution in the QM and adjacent areas in East Asia.     

Geographical isolation versus dispersal: Relictual alpine grasshoppers support a model of interglacial diversification with limited hybridization

Alpine biotas are paradigmatic of the countervailing roles of geographical isolation and dispersal during diversification. In temperate regions, repeated distributional shifts driven by Pleistocene climatic oscillations produced both recurrent pulses of population fragmentation and opportunities for gene flow during range expansions. Here, we test whether a model of divergence in isolation vs. with gene flow is more likely in the diversification of flightless alpine grasshoppers of the genus Podisma from the Iberian Peninsula. The answer to this question can also provide key insights about the pace of evolution. Specifically, if the data fit a divergence in isolation model, this suggests rapid evolution of reproductive isolation. Genomic data confirm a Pleistocene origin of the species complex, and multiple analytical approaches revealed limited asymmetric historical hybridization between two taxa. Genomic-based demographic reconstructions, spatial patterns of genetic structure and range shifts inferred from palaeodistribution modelling suggest severe range contraction accompanied by declines in effective population sizes during interglacials (i.e., contemporary populations confined to sky islands are relicts) and expansions during the coldest stages of the Pleistocene in each taxon. Although limited hybridization during secondary contact leads to phylogenetic uncertainty if gene flow is not accommodated when estimating evolutionary relationships, all species exhibit strong genetic cohesiveness. Our study lends support to the notion that the accumulation of incipient differences during periods of isolation were sufficient to lead to lineage persistence, but also that the demographic changes, dispersal constraints and spatial distribution of the sky islands themselves mediated species diversification in temperate alpine biotas.     

Influences of past climatic changes on historical population structure and demography of a cosmopolitan marine predator,the common dolphin (genus Delphinus)

Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short‐beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo‐Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long‐beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short‐beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems.     

Did glacial advances during the Pleistocene influence differently the demographic histories of benthic and pelagic Antarctic shelf fishes? – Inferences from intraspecific mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence diversity

Background  

Circum-Antarctic waters harbour a rare example of a marine species flock – the Notothenioid fish, most species of which are restricted to the continental shelf. It remains an open question as to how they survived Pleistocene climatic fluctuations characterised by repeated advances of continental glaciers as far as the shelf break that probably resulted in a loss of habitat for benthic organisms. Pelagic ecosystems, on the other hand, might have flourished during glacial maxima due to the northward expansion of Antarctic polar waters. In order to better understand the role of ecological traits in Quaternary climatic fluctuations, we performed demographic analyses of populations of four fish species from the tribe Trematominae, including both fully benthic and pelagic species using the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and an intron from the nuclear S7 gene.     

Quaternary refugia are associated with higher speciation rates in mammalian faunas of the Western Palaearctic

Quaternary climate changes have contributed to shape the biogeographic distribution of extant species. The combination of climatic niche conservatism and glacial‐interglacial cycles forced many species to retract their range limits for surviving under the advance of Pleistocene ice‐sheets. Refugia offered geographical opportunities for species to retreat, persist and, later on, begin recolonization processes under favourable environmental conditions. Here we explore the hypothesis that refugia have been not only crucial for the survival of multiple species but also acted as speciation centres for Western Palaearctic mammals. We define ‘recurrent massive refugia’ as those geographical regions that have historically accumulated the highest levels of co‐occurring species for several Quaternary cycles. Our assemblage‐level analyses identify the existence of refugia within the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic French margin that were recurrently selected by most mammals. The topographic heterogeneity, climatic stability and microhabitat availability of these refugial areas may have offered suitable habitat conditions for multiple species during different climatic events over time. Using a Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures we detected that the higher level of divergence and accumulative evolutionary changes in mammals of the Western Palaearctic are found in refugia. The continuous retractions and expansions of species’ ranges during the Pleistocene promoted temporal changes in the composition and richness of communities in this biogeographic region. The reorganization of ecological composition driven by cyclical climatic events may have favoured the emergence of biotic interactions and ecological responses conducive to novel selective pressures. Our findings suggest, first, that multiple climatic changes in the form of glacial‐interglacial transitions during the Quaternary have left a detectable imprint on the observed geographical patterns of species richness in mammalian faunas of the Western Palaearctic, and second, highlight the importance of refugia for the preservation of species (‘museums’) and as centers of speciation and endemism (‘cradles’) as well.     

Climate,physiological tolerance and sex‐biased dispersal shape genetic structure of Neotropical orchid bees

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on the demographic history of extant species is critical for predicting species' responses to future climate change. Palaeoclimatic instability is a major mechanism of lineage diversification in taxa with low dispersal and small geographical ranges in tropical ecosystems. However, the impact of these climatic events remains questionable for the diversification of species with high levels of gene flow and large geographical distributions. In this study, we investigate the impact of Pleistocene climate change on three Neotropical orchid bee species (Eulaema bombiformis, E. meriana and E. cingulata) with transcontinental distributions and different physiological tolerances. We first generated ecological niche models to identify species‐specific climatically stable areas during Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we inferred calibrated phylogenies and estimated historical demographic parameters to reconstruct the phylogeographical history of each species. Our results indicate species with narrower physiological tolerance experienced less suitable habitat during glaciations and currently exhibit strong population structure in the mitochondrial genome. However, nuclear markers with low and high mutation rates show lack of association with geography. These results combined with lower migration rate estimates from the mitochondrial than the nuclear genome suggest male‐biased dispersal. We conclude that despite large effective population sizes and capacity for long‐distance dispersal, climatic instability is an important mechanism of maternal lineage diversification in orchid bees. Thus, these Neotropical pollinators are susceptible to disruption of genetic connectivity in the event of large‐scale climatic changes.     

Mountains too high and valleys too deep drive population structuring and demographics in a Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau frog Nanorana pleskei (Dicroglossidae)

Pleistocene glacial–interglacial climatic oscillations greatly shaped the current genetic structure of many species. However, geographic features may influence the impact of climatic cycling. Distinct geographic and environmental characters between northern and southern parts of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (EQTP) facilitate explorations into the impacts of geographic features on species. The northern parts of EQTP contain large areas of marsh, and the environment is rather homogeneous. In contrast, the southern EQTP harbors complex alpine valleys and a much more heterogeneous setting. We evaluate DNA sequence variation from both the mitochondrial and nuclear genomes in Nanorana pleskei, a species endemic to the EQTP. Hypothesis testing on the evolutionary history of N. pleskei indicates that northern populations can disperse freely, but alpine valleys isolate southern populations. Demographic histories between northern and southern populations also differ. Northern populations appear to have experienced population expansions, while southern frogs exhibit a far more stable demographic history. By combining climatic analyses and species' distribution models, our study suggests that geographic and environmental features drive the differences between the northern and southern EQTP.     

Back from the Brink: The Holocene History of the Carpathian Barbel Barbus carpathicus

As a result of specific adaptations and habitat preferences strongly rheophilic fish species may show high levels of endemism. Many temperate rheophilic fish species were subjected to a series of range contractions during the Pleistocene, and then successfully expanded during the Holocene, colonising previously abandoned areas. The Carpathian barbel (Barbus carpathicus Kotlík, Tsigenopoulos, Ráb et Berrebi 2002) occurs in the montane streams in three basins of the main Central European rivers in the northern part of the Carpathian range. We used genetic variation within 3 mitochondrial and 9 microsatellite loci to determine a pattern of postglacial expansion in B. carpathicus. We found that overall genetic variation within the species is relatively low. Estimate of time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of mitochondrial sequences falls within the Holocene. The highest levels of genetic variation found in upper reaches of the Tisa river in the Danube basin suggest that glacial refugia were located in the south-eastern part of the species range. Our data suggest that the species crossed different watersheds at least six times as three genetically distinct groups (probably established in different expansion episodes) were found in northern part of the species range. Clines of genetic variation were observed in both the Danube and Vistula basins, which probably resulted from subsequent bottlenecks while colonizing successive habitats (south eastern populations) or due to the admixture of genetically diverse individuals to a previously uniform population (Vistula basin). Therefore, B. carpathicus underwent both demographic breakdowns and expansions during the Holocene, showing its distribution and demography are sensitive to environmental change. Our findings are important in the light of the current human-induced habitats alterations.     

Evolutionary history of Lissotriton helveticus: multilocus assessment of ancestral vs. recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula

The Pleistocene was characterized by climatic changes that greatly altered the distribution of organisms. Population extinctions, bottlenecks, isolation, range expansions and contractions were often associated with glaciations, leaving signatures in the spatial patterns of genetic diversity across species. Lissotriton helveticus belongs to a Pan-European lineage of newts that were strongly affected by glaciations and represent an excellent model to analyse the effect of generalized climatic changes in phylogeographic patterns. We studied the genetic diversity of the species using data from two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes analyzed in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework to investigate the historical processes shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Mitochondrial haplotypes cluster in four different groups present in the Iberian Peninsula and of Pleistocene origin, probably by allopatric fragmentation. Nuclear genes present no obvious geographic structure patterns, suggesting gene flow and generalized incomplete lineage sorting. Populations north of the Pyrenees are closely related to those from northeastern Iberia, suggesting recent range expansion from this region. Historical demographic analyses indicate a demographic expansion starting about 100,000years ago and more recent population declines. Compared to other Lissotriton species, L. helveticus includes only relatively young genetic lineages, suggesting a Central European pre-Pleistocene distribution followed by complete extirpation of the species during glaciations in that area. Historical demographic trends in the Iberian Peninsula are reversed with respect to the more Mediterranean species Lissotriton boscai, indicating different responses of both species to climate changes. Diversity patterns among Lissotriton species seem to be defined by four main factors: ancestral distributions, colonization capabilities, interactions with other species and effective population sizes. Differences in these factors define two types of species, referred to as "R" (refugia) and "S" (sanctuaries) that explain part of the diversity in patterns of genetic diversity created by glaciations in Western Europe.     

Effects of Climate History and Environmental Grain on Species’ Distributions in Africa and South America

Climate changes during the Pleistocene produced shifts, reductions, and expansions of biomes that, in turn, have been hypothesized to have driven speciation and extinction and shaped patterns of biodiversity. Here, we explore effects of Late Pleistocene climatic changes on environmentally and geographically cohesive areas mimicking species’ distributions. We analyzed persistence of these ‘species’ over the transition from the warm Last Interglacial period to the cool Last Glacial Maximum period to warm present‐day conditions, for four levels of environmental restriction (5, 10, 15 and 20% of overall variation; akin to niche breadths). African environments were overall much less conserved over these periods than those of South America, matching diversity contrasts between the two continents. Results thus indicate that biodiversity patterns relate closely to historical patterns of environmental grain and their stability through time; this view is a step toward an integral understanding of the role of environmental and geographic factors in the process of biological diversification.     

Comparative population structure of Cynopterus fruit bats in peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand

The extent to which response to environmental change is mediated by species-specific ecology is an important aspect of the population histories of tropical taxa. During the Pleistocene glacial cycles and associated sea level fluctuations, the Sunda region in Southeast Asia experienced concurrent changes in landmass area and the ratio of forest to open habitat, providing an ideal setting to test the expectation that habitat associations played an important role in determining species' response to the opportunity for geographic expansion. We used mitochondrial control region sequences and six microsatellite loci to compare the phylogeographic structure and demographic histories of four broadly sympatric species of Old World fruit bats in the genus, Cynopterus. Two forest-associated species and two open-habitat generalists were sampled along a latitudinal transect in Singapore, peninsular Malaysia, and southern Thailand. Contrary to expectations based on habitat associations, the geographic scale of population structure was not concordant across ecologically similar species. We found evidence for long and relatively stable demographic history in one forest and one open-habitat species, and inferred non-coincident demographic expansions in the second forest and open-habitat species. Thus, while these results indicate that Pleistocene climate change did not have a single effect on population structure across species, a correlation between habitat association and response to environmental change was supported in only two of four species. We conclude that interactions between multiple factors, including historical and contemporary environmental change, species-specific ecology and interspecific interactions, have shaped the recent evolutionary histories of Cynopterus fruit bats in Southeast Asia.     

Demographic inference from whole‐genome and RAD sequencing data suggests alternating human impacts on goose populations since the last ice age

We investigated how population changes and fluctuations in the pink‐footed goose might have been affected by climatic and anthropogenic factors. First, genomic data confirmed the existence of two separate populations: western (Iceland) and eastern (Svalbard/Denmark). Second, demographic inference suggests that the species survived the last glacial period as a single ancestral population with a low population size (100–1,000 individuals) that split into the current populations at the end of the last glacial maximum with Iceland being the most plausible glacial refuge. While population changes during the last glaciation were clearly environmental, we hypothesize that more recent demographic changes are human‐related: (1) the inferred population increase in the Neolithic is due to deforestation to establish new lands for agriculture, increasing available habitat for pink‐footed geese, (2) the decline inferred during the Middle Ages is due to human persecution, and (3) improved protection explains the increasing demographic trends during the 20th century. Our results suggest both environmental (during glacial cycles) and anthropogenic effects (more recent) can be a threat to species survival.     

Population Genetic Structure and Demographic History of Atrina pectinata Based on Mitochondrial DNA and Microsatellite Markers

The pen shell, Atrina pectinata, is one of the commercial bivalves in East Asia and thought to be recently affected by anthropogenic pressure (habitat destruction and/or fishing pressure). Information on its population genetic structure is crucial for the conservation of A. pectinata. Considering its long pelagic larval duration and iteroparity with high fecundity, the genetic structure for A. pectinata could be expected to be weak at a fine scale. However, the unusual oceanography in the coasts of China and Korea suggests potential for restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae and geographical differentiation. In addition, environmental changes associated with Pleistocene sea level fluctuations on the East China Sea continental shelf may also have strongly influenced historical population demography and genetic diversity of marine organisms. Here, partial sequences of the mitochondrial Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and seven microsatellite loci were used to estimate population genetic structure and demographic history of seven samples from Northern China coast and one sample from North Korea coast. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within samples, there was no genetic differentiation among samples from Northern China coast and low but significant genetic differentiation between some of the Chinese samples and the North Korean sample. A late Pleistocene population expansion, probably after the Last Glacial Maximum, was also demonstrated for A. pectinata samples. No recent genetic bottleneck was detected in any of the eight samples. We concluded that both historical recolonization (through population range expansion and demographic expansion in the late Pleistocene) and current gene flow (through larval dispersal) were responsible for the weak level of genetic structure detected in A. pectinata.     

Glacial History of a Modern Invader: Phylogeography and Species Distribution Modelling of the Asian Tiger Mosquito Aedes albopictus

Background

The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and a vector of human diseases. In the last 30 years, it has spread from its native range in East Asia to Africa, Europe, and the Americas. Although this modern invasion has been the focus of many studies, the history of the species’ native populations remains poorly understood. Here, we aimed to assess the role of Pleistocene climatic changes in shaping the current distribution of the species in its native range.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the phylogeography, historical demography, and species distribution of Ae. albopictus native populations at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Individuals from 16 localities from East Asia were analyzed for sequence variation at two mitochondrial genes. No phylogeographic structure was observed across the study area. Demographic analyses showed a signature of population expansion that started roughly 70,000 years BP. The occurrence of a continuous and climatically suitable area comprising Southeast China, Indochinese Peninsula, and Sundaland during LGM was indicated by species distribution modelling.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results suggest an evolutionary scenario in which, during the last glacial phase, Ae. albopictus did not experience a fragmentation phase but rather persisted in interconnected populations and experienced demographic growth. The wide ecological flexibility of the species probably played a crucial role in its response to glacial-induced environmental changes. Currently, there is little information on the impact of Pleistocene climatic changes on animal species in East Asia. Most of the studies focused on forest-associated species and suggested cycles of glacial fragmentation and post-glacial expansion. The case of Ae. albopictus, which exhibits a pattern not previously observed in the study area, adds an important piece to our understanding of the Pleistocene history of East Asian biota.     

Phylogeographic evidence for two mesic refugia in a biodiversity hotspot

Phylogeographic studies of flora in species-rich south-western Australia point to complex evolutionary histories, reflecting patterns of persistence and resilience to climatic changes during the Pleistocene. We asked whether coastal areas of the mid-west and south, as well as granite outcrops and inland ranges, have acted as major refugia within this region during Pleistocene climatic fluctuations by analysing phylogeographic patterns in the shrub Calothamnus quadrifidus R.Br. (Myrtaceae). We determined variation in chloroplast DNA data for 41 populations across the geographic range. Relationships and major clades were resolved using parsimony and Bayesian analyses. We tested for demographic and spatial expansion of the major clades and estimated clade divergence dates using an uncorrelated, lognormal relaxed clock based on two conservative chloroplast mutation rates. Two distinct phylogeographic clades were identified showing divergence during the Pleistocene, consistent with other phylogeographic studies of south-west Australian flora, emphasising the impact of climatic oscillations in driving divergence in this landscape. The southern clade was more diverse, having higher haplotype diversity and greater genetic structure, while the northern clade showed evidence of fluctuation in population size. Regions of high haplotype diversity with adjacent areas of low diversity observed in each clade indicated the locations of two coastal refugia: one on the south coast and another along the mid-west coast. This is the first evidence for major Pleistocene refugia using chloroplast genetic data in a common, widespread species from this region.     

Amphibian DNA shows marked genetic structure and tracks pleistocene climate change in northeastern Brazil

The glacial refugia paradigm has been broadly applied to patterns of species dynamics and population diversification. However, recent geological studies have demonstrated striking Pleistocene climate changes in currently semiarid northeastern Brazil at time intervals much more frequent than the climatic oscillations associated with glacial and interglacial periods. These geomorphic data documented recurrent pulses of wet regimes in the past 210,000 years that correlate with climate anomalies affecting multiple continents. While analyzing DNA sequences of two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH-dehydrogenase subunit 2) and one nuclear marker (cellular-myelocytomatosis proto-oncogene) in the forest-associated frogs Proceratophrys boiei and Ischnocnema gr. ramagii, we found evidence of biological responses consistent with these pluvial maxima events. Sampled areas included old, naturally isolated forest enclaves within the semiarid Caatinga, as well as recent man-made fragments of humid coastal Atlantic forest. Results show that mtDNA lineages in enclave populations are monophyletic or nearly so, whereas nonenclave populations are polyphyletic and more diverse. The studied taxa show evidence of demographic expansions at times that match phases of pluvial maxima inferred from geological data. Divergence times between several populations fall within comparatively drier intervals suggested by geomorphology. Mitochondrial and nuclear data show local populations to be genetically structured, with some high levels of differentiation that suggest the need of further taxonomic work.     

Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil

Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion–contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single‐locus data, we can now perform large‐scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single‐locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric‐adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest.     

Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote

Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.