Analysis of multi-decadal wetland changes,and cumulative impact of multiple storms 1984 to 2017

Land-cover classification analysis using Landsat satellite imagery acquired between 1984 and 2017 quantified short- (post-Hurricane Sandy) and long-term wetland-change trends along the Maryland and Virginia coasts between Metompkin Bay, VA and Ocean City, MD. Although there are limited options for upland migration of wetlands in the study area, regression analysis showed that wetland area increased slightly between 1984 and 2011, indicating that marsh aggradation rates were sufficient to maintain wetland elevation relative to mean sea level. Following Hurricane Irene (August 2011), the Halloween Nor’Easter (October 2011), and Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), wetland area decreased by more than 7 km² compared with average pre-storm extents. We assume that Hurricane Sandy had the greatest impact due to the size and intensity of the storm. However, the cumulative effects of multiple storms within a short time period likely contributed to the greater observed losses in coastal wetlands relative to earlier periods. Five years after Hurricane Sandy, wetland area had not significantly recovered, but more time may be necessary to assess if the observed wetland losses will persist or if new growth within flooded marsh areas will be sufficient for the wetlands to recover to pre-storm extents. Comparisons of long-term and storm-driven wetland changes can lead to improved accuracy of habitat vulnerability models and greater understanding of potential impacts of future storms and SLR to coastal wetlands.     

Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (<100 μS/cm), but increased post-storm at the overwashed wetlands ([`(x)] \bar{x}  = 7,613 μS/cm). Increased specific conductance was strongly correlated with increases in chloride concentrations. Amphibian species richness showed no correlation with specific conductance. One month post-storm we observed slightly fewer species in overwashed compared with non-overwashed wetlands, but this trend did not continue in 2006. More species were detected across all wetlands pre-storm, but there was no difference between overwashed and non-overwashed wetlands when considering all amphibian species or adult anurans and larval anurans separately. Amphibian species richness did not appear to be correlated with pH or presence of fish although the amphibian community composition differed between wetlands with and without fish. Our results suggest that amphibian communities in wetlands in the southeastern United States adjacent to marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash.     

An integrated model of real estate market responses to coastal flooding

Understanding and improving how humans adapt to climate change are priorities in our research community, and coastal settlements are good places to study adaptation. Severe storm events and sea‐level rise are threatening coastal communities with increasing levels of flood damage. Because ownership of coastal assets is distributed among many private and public actors, both individual property owners and public officials must take adaptive actions. This paper introduces an integrated agent‐based and hedonic pricing modeling system to simulate coastal real estate market performance under non‐equilibrium conditions that reflect the effects of storm events. The modeling system, which is used for policy analysis, is calibrated to conditions in two towns in Monmouth County, New Jersey, USA, which were badly damaged by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The key findings are that (a) coastal real estate markets capitalize flood risk into property values but this discount diminishes rapidly as time passes between storm events, and (b) there is a distinct equity versus efficiency tradeoff in designing public policies to reduce the cost to society of coastal flooding. Stringent regulation of building practices reduces flood damage but drives away poorer home buyers and owners, whereas informational and incentive‐based policies are fairer but less effective. Hands‐off, market‐based retreat from risky areas is socially costly but allows less wealthy people to remain at the shore, albeit in vulnerable situations. Managed retreat should emphasize improved recreational access to coastal amenities while discouraging people from living there.     

PCR and Culture Identification of Pathogenic Leptospira spp. from Coastal Soil in Leyte,Philippines, after a Storm Surge during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira spp. Most of the outbreaks of leptospirosis occur after floods caused by heavy rain in countries where Leptospira spp. are endemic. It has been believed that the overflow of seawater rarely causes outbreaks of leptospirosis because the leptospires are killed by salt water. On 8 November 2013, a storm surge caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) inundated the entire coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo in Leyte, Philippines. The present study was carried out in order to determine whether the environmental leptospires in soil were able to survive after the storm surge in the affected areas. We collected 23 wet soil samples along the coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo 2 months after the storm surge. The samples were suspended in HEPES buffer, and the supernatants were cultured in liquid or semisolid Korthof''s medium supplemented with five antimicrobial agents to inhibit the growth of contaminants. Leptospires were isolated from primary cultures of 22 out of 23 samples. The DNA of pathogenic Leptospira species was detected in 11 samples (47.8%) by analysis of flaB by nested PCR. Eventually, two pathogenic Leptospira strains were isolated and showed the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity to Leptospira kmetyi. When these isolates were experimentally mixed with soil, they were found to survive in seawater for 4 days. These results show the possibility that leptospires living in soil survived after the storm surge. Our findings may serve as a warning that when seawater inundates the land during a storm surge or a tsunami, an outbreak of leptospirosis could occur in the disaster-stricken area.     

Piping plover chick ecology following landscape-level disturbance

Population declines of disturbance-dependent species due to suppression of natural disturbances are realized across ecosystems. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus; plover), a disturbance-dependent and conservation-reliant shorebird that nests on sandy beaches and barrier islands on the Atlantic Coast, was listed under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1986. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy landed on Fire and Westhampton islands, barrier island nesting sites for plovers in New York, USA. Hurricane Sandy was a natural disturbance in this system, creating abundant nesting habitat. The number of chicks produced by a pair, or a population, is a direct measure of reproductive output, and gaining a better understanding of productivity and chick behavior following large-scale habitat creation may improve plover habitat management and potentially species persistence. We evaluated the effects of landscape features on habitat selection, behavior, and survival of plover broods using logistic regression, generalized linear mixed effects models, and survival models. Plover broods selected flatter sites with less dense vegetation than available at random. Chick foraging rates were highest in moist substrates and were lower in areas of higher nesting plover density. Chick survival was greater for broods that hatched earlier in the breeding season and increased as chicks aged. Generally, providing access to sites with flatter, moist substrates will likely result in higher quality brood rearing habitat on the landscape. Ultimately, vegetation removal and habitat management may be needed to reduce plover nesting density and ensure sufficient habitat, which may in turn improve plover chick survival. Moreover, sustaining natural landscape disturbances such as those resulting from storms, and not taking actions to prevent hurricane-created overwash, will allow these landscape features to persist.     

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.     

Hindcast hurricane characteristics on the Belize barrier reef

Hurricane Greta was the most intense of the 1978 Atlantic hurricanes, with a minimum central pressure of 947 hPa (mb) just prior to passage across the Belize barrier reef in the western Caribbean. At Carrie Bow Cay, along the Belize barrier reef, 12 km south of the point where the storm crossed the barrier, coral reef damage was moderate and island damage rather extensive. Felled palm trees indicated that the most destructive storm force came from the SW, from across the barrier reef lagoon. Hindcasting of hurricane winds at Carrie Bow indicated that the palms probably fell in response to the most intense storm winds from the SW. Hindcast, significant waves at Carrie Bow reached a maximum height of 10.0 m with a period of 12.7 s. The largest waves that reached Carrie Bow from across the lagoon were hindcast to have a significant wave height of 2.8 m, significant period of 7.0 s and were responsible for construction of a storm berm at Carrie Bow, facing the lagoon.     

Psychological Resilience after Hurricane Sandy: The Influence of Individual- and Community-Level Factors on Mental Health after a Large-Scale Natural Disaster

Several individual-level factors are known to promote psychological resilience in the aftermath of disasters. Far less is known about the role of community-level factors in shaping postdisaster mental health. The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of both individual- and community-level factors on resilience after Hurricane Sandy. A representative sample of household residents (N = 418) from 293 New York City census tracts that were most heavily affected by the storm completed telephone interviews approximately 13–16 months postdisaster. Multilevel multivariable models explored the independent and interactive contributions of individual- and community-level factors to posttraumatic stress and depression symptoms. At the individual-level, having experienced or witnessed any lifetime traumatic event was significantly associated with higher depression and posttraumatic stress, whereas demographic characteristics (e.g., older age, non-Hispanic Black race) and more disaster-related stressors were significantly associated with higher posttraumatic stress only. At the community-level, living in an area with higher social capital was significantly associated with higher posttraumatic stress. Additionally, higher community economic development was associated with lower risk of depression only among participants who did not experience any disaster-related stressors. These results provide evidence that individual- and community-level resources and exposure operate in tandem to shape postdisaster resilience.     

Linking responses of native and invasive plants to hurricane disturbances: implications for coastal plant community structure

Hurricane disturbances produce significant changes in forest microclimates, creating opportunities for seedling regeneration of native and invasive plant species alike. However, there is limited information on how changes in microclimates and pre-existing forest conditions affect native and invasive plants responses to hurricane disturbances. In this manipulative study, we examined the responses of three common shrub/small stature tree species, two of which are native to the coastal region of the southeastern USA (Baccharis halimifolia and Morella cerifera) and one that is invasive (Triadica sebifera), to two key components of hurricane disturbance (canopy damage and saline storm surge). In a greenhouse, we grew seedlings of these species under a range of shade levels that mimicked pre-and post-hurricane canopy conditions for wet pine forest and mixed hardwood forest, two forest communities common in coastal areas of the southeastern USA. Seedlings were subjected to saline storm surges equivalent to full strength sea water for 3 days. Seedling responses (mortality and growth) to the treatments were monitored for 16 months. All species benefitted from higher canopy openness. Storm surge effects were short-lived and seedlings readily recovered under high light conditions. The storm surge had stronger negative effects on survival and growth of all species when coupled with high shade, suggesting storm surge has greater negative impacts on seedlings where hurricane winds cause minimal or no canopy damage. The invasive T. sebifera was by far more shade tolerant than the natives. Survival of T. sebifera seedlings under highly shaded conditions may provide it a competitive edge over native species during community reassembly following tropical storms. Differential responses of native and invasive species to hurricane disturbances will have profound consequences on community structure across coastal forest stands, and may be regulated by legacies of prior disturbances, community structure, extent of canopy damage, and species’ tolerance to specific microclimates.

     

The Value of Wetlands in Protecting Southeast Louisiana from Hurricane Storm Surges

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.     

Effect of immersion in seawater on egg survival in the lizard<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Anolis sagrei</Emphasis>

Studies on the lizard, Anolis sagrei, revealed that after Hurricane Floyd devastated the Bahamas in 1999, some populations consisted only of hatchlings. Because the storm surge of the hurricane completely inundated these islands, apparently for up to 6 h, survival of anole eggs in salt water for such periods is implied. To test this hypothesis directly, we placed A. sagrei eggs in saltwater for 3 or 6 h with unimmersed eggs serving as the control. Hatching success and incubation time did not differ among the three treatments. These findings help explain the persistence of anole populations on small islands vulnerable to hurricanes.     

Using Wind Setdown and Storm Surge on Lake Erie to Calibrate the Air-Sea Drag Coefficient

The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.     

Aboveground Biomass Accumulation in a Tropical Wet Forest in Nicaragua Following a Catastrophic Hurricane Disturbance1

Among their effects on forest structure and carbon dynamics, hurricanes frequently create large‐scale canopy gaps that promote secondary growth. To measure the accumulation of aboveground biomass (AGBM) in a hurricane damaged forest, we established permanent plots 4 mo after the landfall of Hurricane Joan on the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua in October 1988. We quantified AGBM accumulation in these plots by correlating diameter measurements to AGBM values using a published allometric regression equation for tropical wet forests. In the first measurement year following the storm, AGBM in hurricane‐affected plots was quite variable, ranging from 26 to 153 Mg/ha, with a mean of 78 (±15) Mg/ha. AGBM was substantially lower than in two control plots several kilometers outside the hurricane's path (331 ±15 Mg/ha). Biomass accumulation was slow (5.36 ± 0.74 Mg/ha/yr), relative to previous studies of forest regeneration following another hurricane (Hugo) and agricultural activity. We suggest that large‐scale, homogenous canopy damage caused by Hurricane Joan impeded the dispersal and establishment of pioneer trees and led to a secondary forest dominated by late successional species that resprouted and survived the disturbance. With the relatively slow rate of biomass accumulation, any tightening in disturbance interval could reduce the maximum capacity of the living biomass to store carbon.     

Two mechanisms of aquatic and terrestrial habitat change along an Alaskan Arctic coastline

Arctic habitats at the interface between land and sea are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The northern Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (N-TLSA), a coastal plain ecosystem along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska, provides habitat for migratory waterbirds, caribou, and potentially, denning polar bears. The 60-km coastline of N-TLSA is experiencing increasing rates of coastline erosion and storm surge flooding far inland resulting in lake drainage and conversion of freshwater lakes to estuaries. These physical mechanisms are affecting upland tundra as well. To better understand how these processes are affecting habitat, we analyzed long-term observational records coupled with recent short-term monitoring. Nearly the entire coastline has accelerating rates of erosion ranging from 6 m/year from 1955 to 1979 and most recently peaking at 17 m/year from 2007 to 2009, yet an intensive monitoring site along a higher bluff (3–6 masl) suggested high interannual variability. The frequency and magnitude of storm events appears to be increasing along this coastline and these patterns correspond to a greater number of lake tapping and flooding events since 2000. For the entire N-TLSA, we estimate that 6% of the landscape consists of salt-burned tundra, while 41% is prone to storm surge flooding. This offset may indicate the relative frequency of low-magnitude flood events along the coastal fringe. Monitoring of coastline lakes confirms that moderate westerly storms create extensive flooding, while easterly storms have negligible effects on lakes and low-lying tundra. This study of two interacting physical mechanisms, coastal erosion and storm surge flooding, provides an important example of the complexities and data needs for predicting habitat change and biological responses along Arctic land–ocean interfaces.     

Flooding risk analysis: A case study of Muscat Governorate,Sultanate of Oman

Muscat Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman is located along the sea of Oman and urban development has therefore had to occur in the intervening flat coastal plains and valleys along the coastline. The physical location of Muscat Governorate exposes the city to heavy rain and cyclones as they hit the coastline from the Sea of Oman. This underlying exposure plays a major role in the risk processes that lead to the emphasis of particular climate change risks including storm surge and rain-related flooding as experienced during Gonu Cyclone in 2007 and Phet Cyclone in 2010. For assessing flooding risk analysis, this study combined flooding hazard maps with major land use cover to quantify and validate the risks of flash flooding to urban area and infrastructures. Analysis identified substantial areas within the governorate exposure to high, medium, and low risks from extreme rainfall events that could lead to direct damages to roads, buildings, and other properties. This reinforces the need to protect and strengthen current defenses against these events as well as greater preparedness in disaster response.     

Stability of a coral reef fish community following a catastrophic storm

In January 1980, a severe 3 day storm struck the normally protected leeward coral reefs of Kona, Hawaii. Waves generated by the storm, which was estimated to be a once in 20–40 year occurrence, were in excess of 6 m and caused extensive reef destruction and shoreline alteration. Shallow nearshore areas were denuded of most bottom cover and marine life. Damage to corals was extensive with broken colonies of the coral Porites compressa occurring down to depths of 27 m. Pronounced algal blooms occurred in a clearly defined sequence subsequent to the storm. The patterns of both coral destruction and algal succession were similar to those described on other storm damaged reefs. Fish mortality directly attributable to the storm was slight and the few dead fishes noted were either surge zone or tide pool species. After the storm the shallow reef flat was devoid of resident fishes while deeper areas contained many fishes which had moved from shallower water. This habitat shift substantially reduced the immediate impact of the storm on the fish community. Despite considerable habitat destruction that resulted from the storm, there were no decreases in species or population abundances on five 25 m² quadrats monitored for 23 months before and 16 months after the storm. Similarly, the numbers of triggerfish sheltering within an area increased even though the storm reduced the number of available shelter holes. The shelter and space-related carrying capacity of these areas prior to the storm may therefore not have been reached. Recolonization of evacuated areas by fishes began shortly after the storm and within 16 months many areas had regained their prestorm appearances. Large numbers of individuals remained however, in their shifted locations.     

Climate and coastal dune vegetation: disturbance, recovery, and succession

The sand dune habitats found on barrier islands and other coastal areas support a dynamic plant community while protecting areas further inland from waves and wind. Foredune, interdune, and backdune habitats common to most coastal dunes have very different vegetation, likely because of the interplay among plant succession, exposure, disturbance, and resource availability. However, surprisingly few long-term data are available describing dune vegetation patterns. A nine-year census of 294 plots on St. George Island, Florida suggests that the major climatic drivers of vegetation patterns vary with habitat. Community structure is correlated with the elevation, soil moisture, and percent soil ash of each 1 m² plot. Major storms reduce species richness in all three habitats. Principle coordinate analysis suggests that changes in the plant communities through time are caused by climatic events: changes in foredune vegetation are correlated with temperature and summer precipitation, interdune vegetation with storm surge, and backdune vegetation with precipitation and storm surge. We suggest that the plant communities in foredune, interdune, and backdune habitats tend to undergo succession toward particular compositions of species, with climatic disturbances pushing the communities away from these more deterministic trajectories.     

Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.     

Purple Pitcher Plant (Sarracenia rosea) Dieback and Partial Community Disassembly following Experimental Storm Surge in a Coastal Pitcher Plant Bog

Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea) are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea) were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment). There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change.     

Exploring Individual- to Population-Level Impacts of Disease on Coral Reef Sponges: Using Spatial Analysis to Assess the Fate,Dynamics, and Transmission of Aplysina Red Band Syndrome (ARBS)

Background

Marine diseases are of increasing concern for coral reef ecosystems, but often their causes, dynamics and impacts are unknown. The current study investigated the epidemiology of Aplysina Red Band Syndrome (ARBS), a disease affecting the Caribbean sponge Aplysina cauliformis, at both the individual and population levels. The fates of marked healthy and ARBS-infected sponges were examined over the course of a year. Population-level impacts and transmission mechanisms of ARBS were investigated by monitoring two populations of A. cauliformis over a three year period using digital photography and diver-collected data, and analyzing these data with GIS techniques of spatial analysis. In this study, three commonly used spatial statistics (Ripley’s K, Getis-Ord General G, and Moran’s Index) were compared to each other and with direct measurements of individual interactions using join-counts, to determine the ideal method for investigating disease dynamics and transmission mechanisms in this system. During the study period, Hurricane Irene directly impacted these populations, providing an opportunity to assess potential storm effects on A. cauliformis and ARBS.

Results

Infection with ARBS caused increased loss of healthy sponge tissue over time and a higher likelihood of individual mortality. Hurricane Irene had a dramatic effect on A. cauliformis populations by greatly reducing sponge biomass on the reef, especially among diseased individuals. Spatial analysis showed that direct contact between A. cauliformis individuals was the likely transmission mechanism for ARBS within a population, evidenced by a significantly higher number of contact-joins between diseased sponges compared to random. Of the spatial statistics compared, the Moran’s Index best represented true connections between diseased sponges in the survey area. This study showed that spatial analysis can be a powerful tool for investigating disease dynamics and transmission in a coral reef ecosystem.