Never too late? Consequences of late birthdate for mass and survival of bighorn lambs

In strongly seasonal environments, the timing of birth can have important fitness consequences. We investigated which factors affect parturition date and how birthdate interacts with sex, maternal characteristics and environmental variables to affect the growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) lambs in a marked population in Alberta. Over 14 years, the estimated birthdate of 216 lambs ranged from 21 May to 18 July. Parturition date was heritable and genetically correlated with maternal mass the previous fall. Weaning a lamb delayed parturition the following year by about 7 days. Birthdate did not affect summer growth rate, but late-born lambs were lighter in mid September (the approximate time of weaning) than early-born ones. Birthdate did not affect survival to weaning, but late birth decreased survival to 1 year for male lambs. Forage quality, measured by fecal crude protein, did not affect survival to 1 year. Once we accounted for lamb mass in mid September, birthdate no longer affected the probability of survival, suggesting that late birth decreased survival by shortening a lamb's growing season. Because there was no compensatory summer growth, late-born lambs were smaller than early-born ones at the onset of winter. Our data highlight the importance of birthdate on life history traits and suggest that resource scarcity had more severe consequences for juvenile males than for females.     

Testing the match–mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring ‘peak’ green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.     

Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird

Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid‐20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic‐breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid‐20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom‐up effects on forage availability.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a Mediterranean tortoise

Climatic shifts may increase the extinction risk of populations, especially when they are already suffering from other anthropogenic impacts. Our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on endangered species is limited by our scarce knowledge of the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of most organisms and by the uncertainty of climate projections, which depend strongly on the region of the earth being considered. In this study, we analysed a long‐term monitoring programme (1988–2009) of Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) aimed at evaluating the consequences of the drastic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns predicted for the Mediterranean region on the demography of a long‐lived species with low dispersal capability and already suffering a large number of threats. Capture–recapture modelling of a population in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain) allowed us to assess the effect of climate variability on the survival of tortoises. Winter rainfall was found to be the major driver of juvenile and immature survival, whereas that of adults remained high and constant across the study. Furthermore, local climate series obtained ad hoc from regional climate simulations, for this and 10 additional Mediterranean locations where tortoises occurred, provided us with reliable future climate forecasts, which were used to simulate the fate of these populations under three precipitation scenarios (mean, wet and dry) using stochastic population modelling. We show that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasiextinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment. These processes varied depending on the population and the climate scenario we considered, but our results suggest that unless other human‐induced causes of mortality are suppressed (e.g. poaching, fire, habitat fragmentation), climate variability will increase extinction risk within most of the species’ current range.     

Estimates of direct and indirect effects for early juvenile survival in captive populations maintained for conservation purposes: the case of Cuvier's gazelle

Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life‐history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115–0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to selection in the captive population.     

Environmental and senescent related variations in Weddell seal body mass: implications for age-specific reproductive performance

Recent studies have found age-specific variations in reproductive performance amongst Weddell seals, Leptonychotes weddellii , and we hypothesized age-related variations in maternal body mass as a mechanism linking maternal age and the observed patterns of reproductive performance. We evaluated the effects of maternal traits such as age and reproductive experience and the effects of environmental variations on maternal body mass at parturition. Maternal body mass at parturition showed substantial age- and environmental-related variations. Maternal body mass increased with age through the young and middle ages, and evidence of senescent declines in body mass was found amongst the oldest ages. Additionally, body mass at parturition was strongly influenced by environmental variations during the pregnancy period, specifically sea-ice extent and the state of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation. Patterns of age-specific variations in body mass were consistent with age-specific patterns of offspring survival probability, which supported our hypothesis that changes in body mass link maternal age and reproductive performance in the Weddell seal. Further, environmental conditions during pregnancy may be an important component of Weddell seal reproductive performance.     

Birth seasonality and calf mortality in a large population of Asian elephants

In seasonal environments, many species concentrate their reproduction in the time of year most likely to maximize offspring survival. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) inhabit regions with seasonal climate, but females can still experience 16‐week reproductive cycles throughout the year. Whether female elephants nevertheless concentrate births on periods with maximum offspring survival prospects remains unknown. We investigated the seasonal timing of births, and effects of birth month on short‐ and long‐term mortality of Asian elephants, using a unique demographic data set of 2350 semicaptive, longitudinally monitored logging elephants from Myanmar experiencing seasonal variation in both workload and environmental conditions. Our results show variation in birth rate across the year, with 41% of births occurring between December and March. This corresponds to the cool, dry period and the beginning of the hot season, and to conceptions occurring during the resting, nonlogging period between February and June. Giving birth during the peak December to March period improves offspring survival, as the odds for survival between age 1 and 5 years are 44% higher for individuals born during the high birth rate period than those conceived during working months. Our results suggest that seasonal conditions, most likely maternal workload and/or climate, limit conception rate and calf survival in this population through effects on maternal stress, estrus cycles, or access to mates. This has implications for improving the birth rate and infant survival in captive populations by limiting workload of females of reproductive age. As working populations are currently unsustainable and supplemented through the capture of wild elephants, it is imperative to the conservation of Asian elephants to understand and alleviate the effects of seasonal conditions on vital rates in the working population in order to reduce the pressure for further capture from the wild.     

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide‐ranging frog species in an arid landscape

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.     

Temperature but not rainfall influences timing of breeding in a desert bird, the trumpeter finch ( Bucanetes githagineus )

Reproductive performance in birds depends on several factors, one of the most important being the time of breeding. Birds try to fit offspring birth and growth to peak vegetative production in order to assure fledgling survival. In arid environments, where weather conditions are often extreme, birds must face unpredictable abiotic conditions. This study uses a border population of the trumpeter finch (Bucanetes githagineus) as a model to test whether climate variables (rainfall and temperature) influence breeding parameters by comparing 2 years with very different weather. The study was carried out in the Tabernas desert (southeastern Spain) in 2004 and 2005. A comparison of laying dates in the 2 years shows a 40-day delay in the date of the first clutch in the coldest year (mean minimum temperature 3°C lower in 2005 than in 2004). However, once the breeding season started, the number of clutches, clutch size, duration of the incubation period, nestling phase, fledgling rates and productivity were similar. One likely explanation for this delay is that low temperatures did not allow the germination of Diplotaxis sp., a plant forming the bulk of the trumpeter finch diet during spring. Its absence could prevent onset of breeding, although other temperature-related factors could also be involved. Although rainfall has frequently been reported as a limiting factor for arid bird species, our 2-year study shows that temperature can also influence the breeding biology of arid bird species, by affecting its timing.     

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals’ prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads’ eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late‐breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long‐term phenological trends.     

Maternal effects on offspring locomotion: influence of density and corticosterone elevation in the lizard Lacerta vivipara

Offspring phenotype can be affected by maternal history before and during gestation. Offspring sensitivity to maternal conditions is believed to have evolved to favor preadaptation of offspring to environmental factors they are likely to encounter. Because the locomotor capacity of an individual is likely to have important fitness consequences, we examined the role of long-term and short-term prenatal conditions on offspring's locomotor performance in the lizard Lacerta vivipara. To examine long-term prenatal effects, we manipulated the density of two populations, leaving two additional populations as unmanipulated. We then collected pregnant females within these four populations (Cévennes, Massif Central, France) and kept them in the laboratory until parturition. To examine short-term prenatal effects, we manipulated the corticosterone level of half the females within each population. We took two different measurements of offspring locomotion: sprint speed and endurance. As already documented, sprint speed was positively correlated with offspring body size. Although population density significantly affected female fecundity, neither the density manipulation nor the population of origin influenced offspring phenotype. Corticosterone administered during gestation decreased juvenile sprint speed but did not affect juvenile endurance. Furthermore, we observed that the motivation to run was influenced by maternal hormonal treatment. Juveniles born from corticosterone-treated mothers needed more stimuli than those born from control mothers. We conclude, therefore, that the action of corticosterone on sprint speed could be more behavioral than physiological. Offspring phenotype as measured by endurance and sprint speed appeared partly under maternal control.     

TIMING OF PARTURITION AS A MATERNAL CARE TACTIC IN AN ALPINE LIZARD SPECIES

Lack of ability to buffer postparturient offspring mortality risks may put a female under strong selection to time the birth of her young with benign environmental conditions. We provide support for timing of parturition as an adaptation in Tasmanian snow skinks (Niveoscincus) by demonstration of (1) ongoing selection against poorly timed parturitions, (2) retention of full-term young through episodes of unfavorable conditions, and (3) phylogenetic shifts from autumn to spring parturition in taxa where costs of autumn parturition are expected to be relatively higher.     

Ungulate Reproductive Parameters Track Satellite Observations of Plant Phenology across Latitude and Climatological Regimes

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across latitude and changing climatological regimes. Practically, this demonstrates the potential for broad-scale modeling of couplings between climate, plant phenology, and animal populations using space-borne observations.     

Temperature‐driven shifts in a host‐parasite interaction drive nonlinear changes in disease risk

Climate change may shift the timing and consequences of interspecific interactions, including those important to disease spread. Because hosts and pathogens may respond differentially to climate shifts, however, predicting the net effects on disease patterns remains challenging. Here, we used field data to guide a series of laboratory experiments that systematically evaluated the effects of temperature on the full infection process, including survival, penetration, establishment, persistence, and virulence of a highly pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae), and the development and survival of its amphibian host. Our results revealed nonlinearities in pathology as a function of temperature, which likely resulted from changes in both host and parasite processes. Both hosts and parasites responded strongly to temperature; hosts accelerated development while parasites showed enhanced host penetration but reduced establishment (encystment) and survival outside the host. While there were no differences in host survival among treatments, we observed a mid‐temperature peak in parasite‐induced deformities (63% at 20 °C), with the lowest frequency of deformities (12%) occurring at the highest temperature (26 °C). This nonlinear effect could result from temperature‐driven changes in parasite burden owing to shifts in host penetration and/or clearance, reductions in host vulnerability owing to faster development, or both. Furthermore, despite strong temperature‐driven changes in parasite penetration, survival, and establishment, the opposing nature of these effects lead to no difference in tadpole parasite burdens shortly after infection. These findings suggest that temperature‐driven changes to the disease process may not be easily observable from comparison of parasite burdens alone, but multi‐tiered experiments quantifying the responses of hosts, parasites and their interactions can enhance our ability to predict temperature‐driven changes to disease risk. Climate‐driven changes to disease patterns will therefore depend on underlying shifts in host and parasite development rates and the timing of their interactions.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

Rainfall seasonality predicts the germination behavior of a tropical dry‐forest vine

Seed dormancy is considered to be an adaptive strategy in seasonal and/or unpredictable environments because it prevents germination during climatically favorable periods that are too short for seedling establishment. Tropical dry forests are seasonal environments where seed dormancy may play an important role in plant resilience and resistance to changing precipitation patterns. We studied the germination behavior of seeds from six populations of the Neotropical vine Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) originating from environments of contrasting rainfall seasonality. Seeds produced by second greenhouse‐generation plants were measured and exposed to a favorable wet environment at different time intervals after capsule dehiscence and seed dispersal. We recorded the success and the timing of germination. All populations produced at least some dormant seeds, but seeds of populations originating from more seasonal environments required longer periods of after‐ripening before germinating. Within populations, larger seeds tended to require longer after‐ripening periods than did smaller seeds. These results indicate among‐population genetic differences in germination behavior and suggest that these populations are adapted to local environmental conditions. They also suggest that seed size may influence germination timing within populations. Ongoing changes in seasonality patterns in tropical dry forests may impose strong selection on these traits.     

Density of intraspecific competitors determines the occurrence and benefits of accelerated germination

Germination is a key process in plant recruitment and population dynamics, and seeds are expected to be under strong selection pressure to germinate under conditions that maximize subsequent plant survival. Increased rates of germination (i.e., accelerated germination) may occur in competitive environments. We examined the effects of conspecific density on the timing of germination of seeds of a bird-dispersed plant, Phytolacca americana (Phytolaccaceae, L.), in three different competitive environments. By comparing germination of seeds sown at the same time at different densities, we quantify the benefits of accelerated germination under conditions in which differences in performance among seedlings are attributable to germination timing only, and not to being sown at different times. We find that although the probability of germination is unchanged, the time to initiation of germination is significantly shorter when competition is greater. We also show that plants that germinate earlier are larger and have higher growth rates because they have more time to grow without competitors. Our work demonstrates that shifts in germination timing in response to competition can yield significant dividends for seeds that germinate earliest, but we caution that the magnitude and consequences of accelerated germination will likely depend on the competitive neighborhood.     

Evidence of an interannual effect of maternal immunization on the immune response of juveniles in a long-lived colonial bird

Little is known about the maternal transfer of antibodies in natural host-parasite systems despite its possible evolutionary and ecological implications. In domestic animals, the maternal transfer of antibodies can enhance offspring survival via a temporary protection against parasites, but it can also interfere with the juvenile immune response to antigens. We tested the functional role of maternal antibodies in a natural population of a long-lived colonial seabird, the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), using a vaccine (Newcastle disease virus vaccine) to mimic parasite exposure combined with a cross-fostering design. We first investigated the role of prior maternal exposure on the interannual transmission of Ab to juveniles. We then tested the effect of these antibodies on the juvenile immune response to the same antigen. The results show that specific maternal antibodies were transferred to chicks 1 year after maternal exposure and that these antibodies were functional, i.e. they affected juvenile immunity. These results suggest that the role of maternal antibodies may depend on the timing and pattern of offspring exposure to parasites, along with the patterns of maternal exposure and the dynamics of her immune response. Overall, our approach underlines that although the transgenerational transfer of antibodies in natural populations is likely to have broad implications, the nature of these effects may vary dramatically among host-parasite systems, depending on the physiological mechanisms involved and the ecological context.     

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate‐resolution imaging spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape‐induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape‐induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.