High within‐winter and annual survival rates in a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird suggest that wintering conditions do not limit populations

For migratory birds, it is necessary to estimate annual and overwinter survival rates, identify factors that influence survival, and assess whether survival varies with age and sex if we are to understand population dynamics and thus inform conservation. This study is one of the first to document overwinter and annual survival from the wintering grounds of a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrant bird, the Whinchat Saxicola rubetra. We monitored a population of marked individuals for which dispersal was low and detectability was high, allowing accurate estimates of survival. Annual survival was at least 52% and did not differ significantly across demographic groups or with habitat characteristics or residency time in the previous winter. Overwinter survival was very high and monthly survival at least 98% at some sites. Although winter residency varied spatially and with age, lower residency did not correlate with reduced annual survival, suggesting occupancy of multiple wintering sites rather than higher winter mortality of individuals with shorter residency. Our results suggest that mortality occurs primarily outside the wintering period, probably during migration, and that wintering conditions have minimal influence on survival. The similarity between survival rates for all age and sex classes when measured on the wintering grounds implies that any difference in survival with age or sex occurs only during the first migration or during the post‐fledging stage, and that selection of wintering habitat, or territory quality, makes little difference to survival in Whinchats. Our findings suggest that the wintering grounds do not limit populations as much as the migratory and breeding stages, with implications for the conservation of declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrants more widely.     

Optimal moult strategies in migratory birds

Avian migration, which involves billions of birds flying vast distances, is known to influence all aspects of avian life. Here we investigate how birds fit moult into an annual cycle determined by the need to migrate. Large variation exists in moulting patterns in relation to migration: for instance, moult can occur after breeding in the summer or after arrival in the wintering quarters. Here we use an optimal annual routine model to investigate why this variation exists. The modelled bird's decisions depend on the time of year, its energy reserves, breeding status, experience, flight feather quality and location. Our results suggest that the temporal and spatial variations in food are an important influence on a migratory bird's annual cycle. Summer moult occurs when food has a high peak on the breeding site in the summer, but it is less seasonal elsewhere. Winter moult occurs if there is a short period of high food availability in summer and a strong winter peak at different locations (i.e. the food is very seasonal but in opposite phase on these areas). This finding might explain why only long-distance migrants have a winter moult.     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird

Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu''s harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by ‘weak (diffuse) connectivity’. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites.     

Climate anomalies affect annual survival rates of swifts wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa

Several species of migratory swifts breed in the Western Palearctic, but they differ in reproductive traits and nonbreeding areas explored in Africa. We examined survival and recapture probabilities of two species of swifts by capture–mark–recapture data collected in northern Italy (Pallid Swift Apus pallidus in Carmagnola, Turin, and Common Swift Apus apus in Guiglia, Modena) in the breeding season (May–July). Apparent survival rates were relatively high (>71%), comparable to other studies of European swifts, but showed marked annual variations. We used geolocators to establish the exact wintering areas of birds breeding in our study colonies. Common Swifts explored the Sahel zone during migration and spent the winter in SE Africa, while the Pallid Swifts remained in the Sahel zone for a longer time, shifting locations southeast down to Cameroun and Nigeria later in winter. These movements followed the seasonal rains from north to south (October to December). In both species, we found large yearly differences in survival probabilities related to different climatic indices. In the Pallid Swift, wintering in Western Africa, the Sahel rainfall index best explained survival, with driest seasons associated with reduced survival. In the Common Swift, wintering in SE Africa, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle performed significantly better than Sahel rainfall or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Extreme events and precipitation anomalies in Eastern Africa during La Niña events resulted in reduced survival probabilities in Common Swifts. Our study shows that the two species of swifts have similar average annual survival, but their survival varies between years and is strongly affected by different climatic drivers associated with their respective wintering areas. This finding could suggest important ecological diversification that should be taken into account when comparing survival and area use of similar species that migrate between temperate breeding areas and tropical wintering areas.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.     

Constraints on dispersal and the evolution of the avifauna of the Northern Hemisphere

One could predict that the capacity for travelling great distances might predispose long-distance migratory birds to be good colonists and to exhibit wider geographic distributions than their non-migratory or short-distance migratory relatives or non-volant mammals. This prediction is not supported by the data on avian biogeography. The distributions of species, genera and families of North American and Eurasian birds and mammals are indeed related to migratory status, but long-distance migratory birds exhibit a great deal of biogeographic regionalism. In particular, at all taxonomic levels their distributions tend to be confined to either the Eastern or Western Hemisphere, suggesting that there has been little successful east–west dispersal between North America and Eurasia. Compared to non-migratory birds, short-distance migratory birds and non-volant mammals, long-distance migrants appear to be subject to severe constraints on their physiology, behaviour and ecology, w hich have prevented colonization of distant regions.     

Contrasting Patterns of Genetic Differentiation among Blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) with Divergent Migratory Orientations in Europe

Migratory divides are thought to facilitate behavioral, ecological, and genetic divergence among populations with different migratory routes. However, it is currently contentious how much genetic divergence is needed to maintain distinct migratory behavior across migratory divides. Here we investigate patterns of neutral genetic differentiation among Blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) populations with different migratory strategies across Europe. We compare the level of genetic divergence of populations migrating to southwestern (SW) or southeastern (SE) wintering areas with birds wintering in the British Isles following a recently established northwesterly (NW) migration route. The migratory divide between SW and SE wintering areas can be interpreted as a result of a re-colonization process after the last glaciation. Thus we predicted greater levels of genetic differentiation among the SW/SE populations. However, a lack of genetic differentiation was found between SW and SE populations, suggesting that interbreeding likely occurs among Blackcaps with different migratory orientations across a large area; therefore the SW/SE migratory divide can be seen as diffuse, broad band and is, at best, a weak isolating barrier. Conversely, weak, albeit significant genetic differentiation was evident between NW and SW migrants breeding sympatrically in southern Germany, suggesting a stronger isolating mechanism may be acting in this population. Populations located within/near the SW/SE contact zone were the least genetically divergent from NW migrants, confirming NW migrants likely originated from within the contact zone. Significant isolation-by-distance was found among eastern Blackcap populations (i.e. SE migrants), but not among western populations (i.e. NW and SW migrants), revealing different patterns of genetic divergence among Blackcap populations in Europe. We discuss possible explanations for the genetic structure of European Blackcaps and how gene flow influences the persistence of divergent migratory behaviors.     

Differences in timing of migration and response to sexual signalling drive asymmetric hybridization across a migratory divide

Ecological traits and sexual signals may both contribute to the process of ecological speciation. Here we investigate the roles of an ecological trait, seasonal migratory behaviour and a sexual trait, song, in restricting or directing gene flow across a migratory divide in the Swainson's thrush (Catharus ustulatus). We show that short-distance migratory ecotypes wintering in Central America arrive earlier at the breeding grounds than long-distance migratory ecotypes wintering primarily in South America, providing the potential for some premating isolation. Playback experiments suggest that early- and late-arriving forms recognize each other as competitors, but that the early-arriving form responds more aggressively to a broader spectrum of stimuli. Genetic analysis suggests that hybridization occurs more often between males of the early-arriving ecotype and females of the late-arriving ecotype. Together our results suggest that differences in arrival times may reduce the temporal coincidence of mate choice, but asymmetry in response to heterotypic song may hinder complete divergence. These data provide further insight into the roles of ecological traits and sexual signals during the incipient stages of speciation.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

Range-Wide Piping Plover Survival: Correlated Patterns and Temporal Declines

ABSTRACT Geographically isolated breeding populations of migratory shorebirds may be demographically connected through shared nonbreeding habitats. We used long-term (1998–2008) mark-recapture data on piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) collected from 7 separate studies located throughout North America to conduct a range-wide analysis of after hatch year apparent survival (φ_AHY). Our objectives were to compare concurrent survival estimates from disparate breeding sites and determine whether estimates followed similar trends or were correlated among breeding populations with shared wintering grounds. Average survival estimates were higher for Great Plains populations (range = 0.69–0.81) than for Great Lakes and Atlantic Coast populations (range = 0.56–0.71). Linear trend models indicated that apparent survival declined in 4 out of 7 populations, was unchanged in 3, and was generally highest among Great Plains populations. Based on a post hoc analysis, we found evidence of correlated year-to-year fluctuations in annual survival among populations wintering primarily along the southeastern United States Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast. Our results indicate shared overwintering or stopover sites may influence annual variation in survival among geographically disparate breeding populations. Declines in piping plover survival are a cause for concern, and our results highlight the need for conservation efforts to include habitat used during the migratory and wintering periods.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

Movement Patterns in a Partial Migrant: A Multi-Event Capture-Recapture Approach

Partial migration is a pervasive albeit poorly studied phenomenon by which some individuals of a population migrate while others are residents. It has tremendous consequences on seasonal variations of population size/structure and therefore management. Using a multi-event capture-mark-recapture/recovery (CMR) approach, we assessed seasonal site occupancy, survival and site fidelity of a partially migratory diving duck, the Common pochard (Aythya ferina), in an area potentially including both local breeders and winter visitors. The modelling exercise indeed discriminated two different categories of individuals. First, locally breeding females which had a probability of being present in our study area during winter of 0.41. Females of this category were found to be more faithful to their breeding site than males (breeding site fidelity probabilities of 1 and 0.11, respectively). The second category of birds were winter visitors, which included adults of both sexes, whose probability of being present in the study area during the breeding season was nil, and young of both sexes with a 0.11 probability of being present in the area during the breeding season. All wintering individuals, among which there was virtually no locally breeding male, displayed a high fidelity to our study area from one winter to the next (0.41–0.43). Estimated annual survival rates differed according to age (adults 0.69, young 0.56). For both age classes mortality was higher during late winter/early spring than during summer/early winter. Our study is among the first to show how and under which conditions the multi-event approach can be employed for investigating complex movement patterns encountered in partial migrants, providing a convenient tool for overcoming state uncertainty. It also shows why studying patterns of probability of individual presence/movements in partial migrants is a key towards understanding seasonal variations in numbers.     

Male post-breeding movements and stopover habitat selection of an endangered short-distance migrant,the Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax

Migratory decisions, such as the selection of stopover sites, are critical for the success of post-breeding migratory movements and subsequent survival. Recent advances in bio-logging have revealed the stopover strategies of many long-distance migrants, but far less attention has been given to short-distance migrants. We investigated the stopover ecology of an endangered grassland bird, the Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax, a short-distance migrant in Iberia. Using high-resolution spatial GPS/GSM data, 27 male Little Bustards breeding in southern Portugal were tracked between 2009 and 2011. We studied post-breeding movements using Dynamic Brownian Bridge models to identify the main stopover sites, and generalized linear mixed models to examine habitat selection in stopovers. During their post-breeding movements, males were essentially nocturnal migrants, making frequent stopovers while maintaining a relatively fast pace to reach more productive agricultural post-breeding areas. Stopovers occurred in most post-breeding movements (83%) regardless of the total distance covered (average 64.3 km), and most stopovers (84%) lasted less than 24 h. Birds used mostly agricultural non-irrigated and irrigated croplands as stopover sites and avoided other land uses and rugged terrain. There was a negative relationship between stopovers and the proximity to roads, but not to power lines. The high frequency of stopovers during post-breeding movements, despite the short distances travelled, together with the nocturnal migratory behaviour of bustards, may impose additional risks to a bird mainly threatened by collision with power lines in non-breeding areas. We also conclude that even for short-distance migrants, habitat connectivity between breeding and post-breeding areas is likely to be a key conservation concern.     

A comparison of sex ratio,birth periods and calf survival among Serengeti wildebeest sub‐populations,Tanzania

Although adaptation and environmental conditions can easily predict demographic variation in most savannah ungulates, no study on demographic consequences arising from natural and anthropogenic factors among Serengeti wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) sub‐populations in Tanzania has been carried out. Here, I report estimates of annual sex ratio, calf and yearling survival rate and birth seasonality between resident and migratory sub‐populations to explore demographic patterns arising from the different age and sex structure. The results indicate significantly higher female‐biased sex ratios in the resident and almost even sex ratios among individual migrants. The calf recruitment estimated as mother: offspring ratios indicate a more synchronous birth in the migrant than the resident sub‐population. Also, birth seasonality in the migratory sub‐population coincided with seasonal variability of rainfall and the timing of the birth peak was more variable in the migrants than the resident sub‐population. The migratory sub‐population had a higher annual proportional mean calf survival estimate (0.84) than that of the residents (0.44) probably due to higher mortality resulting from predation in the western corridor. However, the proportion of yearling survival estimates was much lower (0.31) in the migrants and relatively higher (0.39) in the residents. Different demographic outcomes resulting from environment, predation, movements and ecological factors including resource competition have conservation implications for the two sub‐populations.     

Radar observations of passerine migration over Frankfurt and Hannover, Germany

Summary The direction of the autumn and spring migration of short- and long-distance migrants over Frankfurt and spring migration of short-distance migrants over Hannover were studied by radar. For long-distance migrants, a comparison with results obtained from the Swiss Lowland revealed no difference in the direction of autumn migration but a 35° difference in the direction of spring migration. In Frankfurt the migration was more northerly. The difference in the migratory direction of short-distance migrants between central Germany and the Swiss Lowland ranged from 10° to 15° in spring and to 9° in autumn. The direction of spring migration can be understood as a simple 180° reversal of autumn migration in short-distance migrants, but not in long-distance migrants. The difference in the direction of the migratory axis (about 30°) among long-distance migrants between autumn and spring indicates that such birds follow different routes during their two seasonal, migratory journeys. The short- and long-distance migrants flew a similar direction in autumn. In spring, the short-distance migrants flew considerably more easterly compared to long-distance migrants. Wind influences, because of the seasonality of cyclonic weather systems, was much more likely to affect the migration of short-distance migrants in both autumn and spring. The effect of strong crosswinds on the direction of spring migration was examined.

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Zusammenfassung Mittlere Zugrichtung und Windeinfluß auf Herbst- und Frühjahrszug von Kurz- und Langstreckenziehern wurden über Frankfurt und über dem Raum Hannover (nur Frühjahrszug) mit Hilfe von Radarbeobachtungen untersucht. Der Vergleich mit Ergebnissen vom Alpenrand ergab übereinstimmende Mittelrichtungen für den Herbstzug der Langstrecken-zieher, aber eine deutliche Differenz für dem Frühjahrszug (35°). In Frankfurt war der Zug stärker nach N gerichtet. Die Unterschiede bei den Kurzstreckenziehern betrugen im Frühjahr 10° bzw. 15° und im Herbst 9°. Der Frühjahrszug kann als Richtungsumkehrung des Herbstzuges bei den Kurzstreckenziehern, aber nicht bei den Langstreckenziehern interpretiert werden. Die Differenz zwischen den Zugachsen von Herbst- und Frühjahrszug betrug 30°. Sie wird als Indiz für unterschiedliche Zugrouten auf dem Herbst- und Frühjahrszug gewertet. Kurz- und Langstreckenzieher hielten auf dem Herbstzug ähnliche Zugrichtungen ein. Im Frühjahr zogen die Kurzstreckenzieher wesentlich stärker nach E als die Langstreckenzieher. Der Windeinfluß machte sich wegen der Saisonalität der Zyklonentätigkeit sowohl beim Frühjahrs- als auch beim Herbstzug der Kurzstreckenzieher stärker bemerkbar als bei den Langstreckenzieher. Der Einfluß der starken Seitenwinde auf die Richtungen des Frühjahrszuges wurde untersucht.

     

Travelling on a budget: predictions and ecological evidence for bottlenecks in the annual cycle of long-distance migrants

Long-distance migration, and the study of the migrants who undertake these journeys, has fascinated generations of biologists. However, many aspects of the annual cycles of these migrants remain a mystery as do many of the driving forces behind the evolution and maintenance of the migrations themselves. In this article we discuss nutritional, energetic, temporal and disease-risk bottlenecks in the annual cycle of long-distance migrants, taking a sandpiper, the red knot Calidris canutus, as a focal species. Red knots have six recognized subspecies each with different migratory routes, well-known patterns of connectivity and contrasting annual cycles. The diversity of red knot annual cycles allows us to discuss the existence and the effects of bottlenecks in a comparative framework. We examine the evidence for bottlenecks focusing on the quality of breeding plumage and the timing of moult as indicators in the six subspecies. In terms of breeding plumage coloration, quality and timing of prealternate body moult (from non-breeding into breeding plumage), the longest migrating knot subspecies, Calidris canutus rogersi and Calidris canutus rufa, show the greatest impact of bottlenecking. The same is true in terms of prebasic body moult (from breeding into non-breeding plumage) which in case of both C. c. rogersi and C. c. rufa overlaps with southward migration and may even commence in the breeding grounds. To close our discussion of bottlenecks in long-distance migrants, we make predictions about how migrants might be impacted via physiological 'trade-offs' throughout the annual cycle, using investment in immune function as an example. We also predict how bottlenecks may affect the distribution of mortality throughout the annual cycle. We hope that this framework will be applicable to other species and types of migrants, thus expanding the comparative database for the future evaluation of seasonal selection pressures and the evolution of annual cycles in long-distance migrants. Furthermore, we hope that this synthesis of recent advancements in the knowledge of red knot annual cycles will prove useful in the ongoing attempts to model annual cycles in migratory birds.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Lower annual fecundity in long-distance migrants than in less migratory birds of temperate Europe

We use widely supported handbook data on annual fecundity (clutch size × annual number of normal broods) to obtain indications related to the relative costs of long-distance migration compared to lower levels of migratoriness. Our examples show that the yearly production of eggs in congeneric passerines of similar size from temperate Europe is lower in long-distance migrants than in their less migratory relatives. The same tendency shows up in a more heterogeneous sample of non-passerines. In most passerines and in one among five pairs of non-passerines, this is due to longer breeding periods allowing a higher number of clutches in the less migratory species in spite of a tendency towards larger clutches in the passerine long-distance migrants. If both migratory types have only one clutch (as in one species pair of the passerines and in four non-passerine pairs) the trend towards larger clutches was reversed between the two types. The higher fecundity of the less migratory species suggests that wintering under harsh conditions may be more expensive than trans-Sahara migration among similar species. In keeping with this result, Ortolan and Rock Buntings (Emberiza hortulana and E. cia) breeding syntopically (and, in the 1980s, still in relatively stable populations) in an inner Alpine valley provide a well-studied example illustrating the high longevity of the migrants compared to the relatively short life span of the residents.     

Estimability of migration survival rates from integrated breeding and winter capture–recapture data

Long‐distance migration is a common phenomenon across the animal kingdom but the scale of annual migratory movements has made it difficult for researchers to estimate survival rates during these periods of the annual cycle. Estimating migration survival is particularly challenging for small‐bodied species that cannot carry satellite tags, a group that includes the vast majority of migratory species. When capture–recapture data are available for linked breeding and non‐breeding populations, estimation of overall migration survival is possible but current methods do not allow separate estimation of spring and autumn survival rates. Recent development of a Bayesian integrated survival model has provided a method to separately estimate the latent spring and autumn survival rates using capture–recapture data, though the accuracy and precision of these estimates has not been formally tested. Here, I used simulated data to explore the estimability of migration survival rates using this model. Under a variety of biologically realistic scenarios, I demonstrate that spring and autumn migration survival can be estimated from the integrated survival model, though estimates are biased toward the overall migration survival probability. The direction and magnitude of this bias are influenced by the relative difference in spring and autumn survival rates as well as the degree of annual variation in these rates. The inclusion of covariates can improve the model's performance, especially when annual variation in migration survival rates is low. Migration survival rates can be estimated from relatively short time series (4–5 years), but bias and precision of estimates are improved when longer time series (10–12 years) are available. The ability to estimate seasonal survival rates of small, migratory organisms opens the door to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of these species. Application of this method will enable researchers to better understand when mortality occurs across the annual cycle and how the migratory periods contribute to population dynamics. Integrating summer and winter capture data requires knowledge of the migratory connectivity of sampled populations and therefore efforts to simultaneously collect both survival and tracking data should be a high priority, especially for species of conservation concern.